Monte Carlo Computer Calculation
dicting the results that will accrue from
of Transmission-Line Ligktning
Performance
J. G. ANDERSON
MEMBER AIEE
ESTIMATING the likelihood of win-
ning in a gambling game and estimat-
ing the lightning performance of a new
transmission line are in many ways similar
processes. Both are concerned with
making useful predictions from situations
containing random processes; and, in
both, relationships involving probabilities
dominate. The former is concerned with
the probabilities of occurrence of certain
favorable combinations of cards or other
"indicating devices," whereas the latter
is concerned with probabilities of un-
wanted combinations of lightning stroke
and line characteristics. Carrying the
analogy still further, one can, with no loss
in precision, consider the prediction of
transmission-line lightning performance
as a game that the line designer plays
against nature in which he estimates the
"plays" that nature is likely to make with
her lightning strokes, and creates a line
design that should be proof against a given
percentage of these plays. He then places
his line into the game and history sums
up the result as to whether he or nature
won. Just as history contains many in-
stances of those who have lost at cards
because they could not properly estimate
the probabilities involved, so it has be-
come apparent that the industry is also
in need of a better method of estimating
the statistical relationships in calculating
lightning performance.I
The purpose of this paper is to examine
these parallels more closely, and to de-
scribe a computer routine that will handle
large groups of probabilistic relationships
that occur in lightning flashover processes
on transmission lines. This routine, be-
cause it plays the game in advance ac-
cording to statistical data obtained from
field measurements, should provide more
accurate estimates of line performance.
One reason for the past difficulties of
lightning flashover calculations on lines
is that the statistical distributions of
stroke characteristics cover such a wide
range of such a miiultitude of variables
that it is difficult to fix the character-
istics of the stroke that the line should be
designed to withstand. These statistical
414 A nderson-Calculation of Transmission-Line Lightning Performance
If one is faced with the problem of pre-
relationships take the form of various
probabilities. These include the prob-
ability that lightning strokes will strike
the line, the probability that the stroke
will make contact in a vulnerable spot,
the probabilities that the stroke char-
acteristics will equal or exceed the mini-
mum necessary to cause trouble, and
the probability that the power frequency
voltage will be of such a polarity and
magnitude as to help or hinder the flash-
ov,ers. These and other probabilities do
not always act independently but may be
tied together with certain "house" rules
that nature has formulated.
A Statistical Approach
The outcome of almost any game of
chance can be predicted provided the
odds are known and the game is played
long enough so that the statistical fluctua-
tions in winning or losing are reasonably
well balanced out. For simple gambling
games, such as matching pennies, an
elementary calculation is sufficient to pre-
dict the outcome of a long game. For a
complicated game, particularly this na-
ture-designer game under consideration, a
digital computer is necessary if the result
is to be predicted within a reasonable time.
This is especially true since in this case
nature appears to have a marked deck of
cards in her possession. This prevents
her plays from being truly random, and
creates non-Gaussian probability dis-
tributions in the game.
As an example of this department from
randomness, it is known that very few
strokes will occur having a current ampli-
tude below 5 ka (kiloamperes) or above
100 ka, and that most of the stroke
currents will be in the 20-ka to 60-ka
range. Similarly, the rates of current
rise appear restricted. Fortunately,
however, nature is a creature of habit
and once her methods of play are
found from field data, one can be reason-
ably confident that in the future she will
continue to play in the same way, albeit
with a certain erraticness from year to
year.
the interplay of a complex group of
probabilistic and deterministic events in
a game, there are two general procedures
that can be used to obtain a solution.
One is the analytic approach, wherein the
relations describing each of the events
are derived, their interactions included,
and the final solution written as some
sort of probability equation. If, by great
mathematical effort, one reaches this
point, he may discover that his "solution"
is numerically useless because it is simply
too difficult to use quantitatively or is of
formidable length. Here he may resort
to another approach of simply playing the
game for a number of trials and observing
the results. Unfortunately, in the case of
transmission systems or Russian roulette,
this method can have serious conse-
quences. Some means of playing the
game are needed which will give the same
results without undue expense or damage.
Stanislaw Ulam and John v,on Neuman
made the remarkably simple suggestion
that games of this sort be played on a
computer. For the secret wvork at Los
Alamos during World War II, this method
was given the code name "Monte Carlo"
and used to calculate neutron diffusion
through materials. Since then it has
been applied to many kinds of problems,
from solving simultaneous equations
to predicting the outcome of bombing
missions, with highl) successful (if not
always elegant) results. (Some writers
prefer that the name Monte Carlo be
applied only to problems that use
probabilities to calculate soniething not
obviously related to those probabilities
However, the name has also been applied
to routines that are essentially sta-
tistical sampling routines, and it is in
the latter context that it is used in this
paper.)
The Monte Carlo Method
The Monte Carlo calculation of trans-
mission-line lightning performance by
means of a computer might best be illus-
trated by again examining this game be-
tween nature and the designer. Con-
Paper 61-88, recommended by the AlEE Trans-
mission and Distribution Committee and approved
by the AIEE Technical Operations Department for
presentation at the AIEE Winter General Meeting,
New York, N. Y., January 29-Febrtuary 3, 1961.
Manuscript submitted October 26, 1960; made
available for printing November 23, 1960.
J. G. ANDERSON is with the (eneral Electric Com-
pany, Pittsfield, Mass.
The author wishes to thank J. H. Hagenguth and
P. A. Abetti for their support and assistance in this
work. Most of the tests were run by R. U.
Giacomoni, and he, A. K. Abboushi, and F. A.
Fisher, made many constructive suggestions.
AUGUST 1961

z ation of outcome.
LAJ 20
0.
uJ
z to be some kind of description of the out-
a'° 20 40 6 80 100 120
CURRENT AMAPL TUDES - K ILOAMPE RES
Fig. 1.- Ffequency histogram of current
magnitudes of lightning on transmission lines
as determined by combined held data 7,12
sidered first as a simple card game, assunle
that nature has a large deck of cards and
that she is the dealer. She has divided the.
deck into six or more piles, each pile con-
taining the following:
Pile 1: V arious, stroke ainplitudes inl kilo-
amperes, one amplitude written on each
card.
Pile 2: V arious stroke times to crest,
microsecoiids, oiie time on each card.
Pile 3: Each card describes a location on
the system whiere the stroke occurs and the
footing resistance of the nearest towers.
Pile 4: Each card has a number describ-
ing where the stroke inade contact on the
span betweeii towers or at the towers.
Pile 5: Each card sets a magnitude of
power-frequency voltage at the instant of
contact.
Pile 6: Other characteristics deemed
necessary, such as probabilities of shielding
failures.
In her stroke amplitude pile, most of the
cards will have an amplitude number
marked on thein that is somewhat near
the average obtained from field data.
However, a few will be extremely high or
extremely low, and if the statistical dis-
tribution of amplitudes in the amplitude
pile is plotted, as shown in Fig. 1, it
should be found to fit the same as ob-
served bv- field measurements of natural
lightning, provided enough field measure-
ments are available to permit an in-
telligent coniparison. A similar process
is used for the statistical distributions of
front-times in the second pile, Fig. 2, and
so on for the others. One can only
determine what is likely to exist in each
pile by- collecting field data, i.e., observing
what occurred during previous plays that
nature has made.
To start the game, nature deals a card
to the designer from each pile. The
designer takes the numerical values of
AUGUST 196 1 A nderson -Calculation of Transmission-Line Lightning Performance
10 20 30 4.0 50 6.0
EFFECTIVE TIME TO CREST- MICROSECONDS
Fig. 2. Frequency histogram of times to
crest of stroke current surges to transmission
lines as determined by combined field data7" 2
the cards he received (and of the stroke
characteristics thus occurring), and ex-
amines his own mathematical model of the
system that he has created as his part
in the game. If the insulators and spans
of his system survive this "stroke"
without flashover, he wins the first play
and notes this fact on a counter. If a
flashover occurs, nature wins and makes
a record on her counter. The dealt cards
are then returned to the piles from which
they came, each pile is shuffled, and the
play repeated. After a great number of
plays have been made, the proportion
of plays that nature wins to the plays
that the designer wins will become rela-
tively constant. The total number of
plays to be made in the game is the same
as the total number of strokes to the
line, and is calculated in advance from
the line length and geometry, the regional
isokeraunic level, and the number of
years' experience desired. When the
number of plays desired has been com-
pleted, the "payoff" is calculated. The
payoff consists of noting the proportion
of flashovers that occurred on the line
to the total number of strokes for which
the game was played, and converting this
number by simple proportion to number
of flashovers per 100 miles per year.
In theory, if this card game can be
simulated in advance it should predict
the actual line lightning flashover rate
with good accuracy, provided:
1. The total number of strokes to the line
can be calculated for the number of years
desired with sufficient accuracy.
2. The characteristics of each deck closely
approximate those really dealt by nature.
3. The response of a line and tower con-
figuration to a stroke can be established in
advance of the game.
4. The game is played long enough for a
clear result to be obtained. A short-dura-
tion game is subject to considerable fluctu-
5. The relationships between any variables
not independent of each other can be estab-
lished in advance.
Any method used for predicting line
outages is, in the final analysis, likely
come of this game. Taking the afore-
mentioned points in reverse order, thou-
sands of plays may be necessary before
a realistic appraisal of the line perform-
ance is obtained. This is why a com-
puter is required: one that can play both
nature's and the designer's part and
tabulate the results impartially and
quickly. Accuracy of calculation can be
increased by increasing the number of
years of experience studied but at the
expense of additional computer time.
However, by successive one-year runs,
the variation in outage rates from year to
year can be studied. Obviously the com-
puter does not shuffle cards, because this
would be too slow. Instead it generates
random numbers (or refers to random
number tables) and uses these numbers to
determine which values of currents, times,
etc., to choose for a particular play of the
game. The third requirement that the
response of line and tower configurations
to any type of stroke must be known is
also a requirement for any other type
of solution. In the card game (or in the
computer) this response is in the form of a
set of tables or curves established by either
theoretical calculations2'3 or millimicro-
second geometrical model techniques,4 and
sets of volt-time curvesl16 of the insulator
response. The requirement that the
stroke characteristics on the cards closely
approximate those in nature can only be
satisfied by extensive lightning field re-
search.1'7 As field research creates more
informative data, the data cards are
modified accordingly. As for the total
strokes to the line, formulas are now
available to determine the area of earth
shielded by the line8'9 and these formulas
can be used in conjunction with esti-
mates of the relationship between strokes
to earth per square mile and the iso-
keraunic level to establish this important
parameter. Further field data may mod-
ify the numerical results of these calcula-
tions also. These field investigations
now in progress include co-operative
research programs on 345-kv lines,7 an ex-
tensive General Electric-Pennsylvania
Electric Company lightning investigation
on their 460-kv Claysax transmission
line, and field measurements on lines
and towers of Public Service Electric
and Gas, Consolidated Edison, and the
650-kv towers of Project EHV.
415

Fig. 3. A simpliRed Aow diagram For the Monte Carlo calculation oF lightning experience on
transmission lines
An important point that bears repeti-
tion is that although future research may
modify part of the input data to this game,
the character of the game as played on
the computer need not change. One
needs only to repunch the input data cards
and continue to play the same game as
before. Also, as more probability rela-
tionships appear, one needs only to pre-
pare more decks and continue the same
game. The advantage of the Monte
Carlo method is that it can be made ex-
tremely flexible without changing its basic
character, and the only limitation to the
number of variables to be used is that of
computing time. The limitations are
that programs are usually written for a
particular computer, and that a "text-
book" analytical solution does not result.
The Monte Carlo Computer
Program
A greatly simplified flow chart of the
computer program is shown in Fig. 3.
Over 108 combinations of variables are
programmed, and more can be added as
needed to meet individual requirements.
This program accounts for:
1. The statistical distribution of 100 to
1,000 discrete values of stroke currents
ranging from 8 ka to 110 ka.
2. Statistical distribution of 100 stroke
front-times ranging from 0.5 microsecond
to 20 microseconds. This time scale can be
altered to check special cases or conjectures.
3. Changes in ratios of strokes contacting
tower, mid-span, and quarter-span as tower
geometries change.
4. Statistical probabilities of shielding
failures insofar as known. For example, the
Burgsdorf10 shielding failure probability
curve or others are available in the program.
5. The random statistical variation of
416 A nderson-Calculation of Transmission-Line Lightning PerformanceA
power-frequency voltages and their contri-
bution to breakdown stresses at tower and
on the spans. These are calculated differ-
ently for different tower geometries.
6. Any known or estimated distribution of
footing resistance values from 0 ohms to
10,000 ohms for any line length up to 1,000
miles. These values are automatically
modified to account for the influence of
stroke currents for differing soil conditions
and can be distributed along the line in any
manner desired.
7. Variations in insulation strength with
respect to altitude.
8. The system voltage-time response on
the spanis and at towers to stroke currents of
various waveshapes as measured on geo-
metrical models of the lines and towers.4
For siinplified representations, analytically
determined data can also be used if desired.
9. The volt-time variation in tower insu-
lator and air-gap strengths. Tables of these
variations are stored within the program,
and searched by an interpolation routine.
10. The stresses created across the tower
insulators, and the stresses between the
LI-
IC)
0
Ir-
.4
LAJ
C-
Fig. 4. Representative nano- Cn
I-
second model data curves showing -J
voltage developed across a tower
insulator string per ampere of
tower stroke current as a function
of tower footing resistance
ground wire and nearest phase conductor at
both quarter-span and mid-span for strokes
to either quarter-span, mid-span, or tower.
11. Automatic calculation of line outage
rates and failure probabilities for each of
five different insulator string lengths, and
print-out of the percentage of flashovers
occurring at towers, at quarter-span, and at
mid-span. This permits co-ordination of
line and tower insulation strengths.
12. Print-out of amplitudes, times to crest,
and locations of strokes causing flashover.
13. Stroke-by-stroke comparisons be-
tween any two lines, preferably between
one on which operating experience is avail-
able and another that is being designed.
14. Estimates of yearly variations in
flashover rate by successive computer runs.
THE COMPUTATION ROUTINE
Start. The setting of index registers
and counters, and organization of work
areas.
Read and Store Input Data. The input
data, read in on 27 punched cards,
describe 18 fundamental characteristics of
the line, terrain, atmospheric, and meteor-
ological conditions.
Calculate Total Strokes to Line. The
total strokes to the line are calculated
from the Hagenguth shielding formula9
and a rule that the strokes to earth per
square mile equal 0.23 times the regional
isokeraunic level. Golde's hypothesis"
that the strokes per square mile equal 0.5
times the isokeraunic level was found to
predict abnormally high outage rates on
transmission lines with no static wires.
From a practical point of view, several
different combinations of stroke densities
and shielding formulas can be used as long
as the error in one is compensated by
opposite errors in the other.
Roulette Characteristics of New Stroke
and Location. By generating a sequence
of pseudo-random numbers, the com-
AUGUST 1961
 JOHN ANDFRSnN Q-705 COnE 6660'5
CALCULATION OF TRANSMISSION LINE LIGHTNING PERFORMANCE
TRIAL RUN 150KV LINE MEXICO. DATA EXTRAPOLATED FROM 138KV PSNJ PAGE 97 05 BOOK
WOOD CROSSARM FT 00 %SLICE 30 STROKE DIST T60 030 M 10 AVG RES. 7 STD DEV 1
LOW INS. HIGH INS.ISO.LEVEL TWR.HT. GW.HT. SPAN DIST LINE DIST ALTITUDE KV YEARS LINE TYPE
11. 14. 45, 106. 70. 1150. 75. 7000. 150. 10. 30.

NUMBER OF INSULATORS FAILURE PROBABILITY OUTAGE RATE

11. *1188 7,600

12. .1146 7.333

13. .1083 6.933

14. .1083 6.933

TOTAL STROKES TO LINE 47. TYPE OF 5OIL Al FOOT NuS..s* ANP-

PRINCIPAL STRESSES ..TOWER STROKE-TOWER QUARTER SPAN STROKE-SPAN MIDSPAN STROKE-SPAN

SHIELDING FAILURE PERCENTAGE- -

00- MIU5PAN FAOLUNRE PRCERIAtE- ZS0 -
OUARTEP SPAN FAILURE PERCENTAGE- 6.46 9 FAILURE-TWR SiOKtS-LCAK.tSI IN-.- Tl ---
KTLOAMPS 75.4 M 63.4 ( 101.6 0 79.0 0 109.2 T 64.0 0 110.4 T 11.3 0 -144 0 100.6 0.
MICROSEC 2.55 .95 1.52 1.66 .93 1.10 .96 2.15 1.10 1.53
KILOAMPS 741M 1407M9 a 1T6V 61.M
3 61.1 0 120.Z T 67.7 0 13.6 M6M.5 0 T5.4
MICROSEC 1.96 .74 2.58 1.23 1.17 1.13 1.16 1.26 .89 3.00
KILOAMPS 69.8 ) 69.8 0 101.6 0 110.4 M 53.0 0 86.3 0 101.9 71.5 0 65.-
- I6.- T
MICROSEC .98 .68 2.17 2*00 1.53 1*43 .82 1.40 1.40 1.08
KILOAMPS 93.2 T 74.7 0 88.7 0 61.1 0 99.7 T 91.1 0 83.00 50Y9
W 0 87.z O bz.1 0
MICROSEC .79 1.16 1.17 .99 .79 1.26 1.34 1.05 2.10 1.47
KILOAMPS 82.4 0 67 6.5 M 126.3 T 65 M 119.0 0 102.4 0 106.5 t 95.1 M 74j
MICROSEC 1.85 1.16 1.26 .91 2.42 .85 2.32 .85 1.20 1.23
K.9ILPAMPS
ft A _f c
67.]1
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83. 5 0 A .0A
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miCnOSEC 1.64 .95 .00 .00 .00 .00
.00 .oo .00 * 00
RILOAMPS _ 00 .00
M I C OSEC .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00
-

.00
Zoo
.00 .00 .00
KILOAMP5 .00 .00 .u a.0 .0
MICQOSEC .00 .00 .00 .oo .00 .00 .00 .000 .00 .00-
KILOARPPS .00 .00 . 0 Soo
o0 0(>
MICROSEC .00 .00 .00 so a 00 *00 . 00 .00
K TLOAMPS .0 U 0 .oo
MICROSEC .00
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Fig. 5. A repreentative output format showing results of trial outage calculations one 1 50-kv steel tower line

puter goes to addresses determined by
these numbers, and draws out the char-
acteristics of the stroke it finds there.
This is equivalent to nature's "shuffle of
the cards," and is termed "roulette" to
emphasize the fact that the selection is,
for all practical purposes, governed by
chance as already outlined. The char-
acteristics drawn include:
1. Stroke crest current amplitude, kilo-
amperes.
2. Time to crest, microseconds. This
type of routine has the capability of handling
"ramp-function," convex, or concave wave-
fronts. Present calculations are based on
ramp-function wavefronts (i.e. a current
front rising linearly to a final value) because
of insufficient field data to delineate clearly
the shape of stroke current surges.
3. The location of the stroke, i.e. whether
it contacts mid-span, quarter-span, or
tower. The relative frequencies that these
now occur in the program are 60% to
tower, 30% to quarter-span, and 10% to
mid-span for steel towers. The tower,
since it has a larger mass, attracts more
strokes toward its location.
4. Tower footing resistance at the stricken
tower or span.
5. The instantaneous components of power-
frequency voltage at the moment the stroke
makes contact.
6. Whether or not the stroke creates a
shielding failure. For this operation, the
computer draws a digit (zero or one) at
random from a large group of stored digits.
The proportion of ones to zeros in this group
of stored digits is equal to the proportion of
shielding failures to no shielding failures
predicted by Burgsdorf's data'O or any other
means desired. If the computer draws a
one, it calls this a shielding failure and
makes no further calculations other than
increasing the appropriate failure counters.
If, instead, it draws a zero, it decides that no
shielding failure has occurred and starts
calculations as to whether insulation flash-
over can occur by other means.
Roulette Sixty-Cycle Voltage Component
from Line Configuration. When a stroke
occurs, any phase angle of the power-
frequency voltage is as likely to be in
existence at that instant as any other.
Therefore, the computer picks a phase
angle completely at random, from which
it calculates the dependent phase angles
on the other two phases. This is
the only component in the program in
which any one value is just as likely to
occur as any otber. Then, depending
on the kind of circuit geometry, number
of circuits per tower, and phase relation-
ships, computes the power-frequency
voltage component.
ComputeAltitude Corrections. From al-
titude above sea level, standard relative
air densityreductions of dielectric strength
are computed, plus approximately 10%
for deleterious contamination, moisture
effects, and insulator and line swing.
From Mid-Span Characteristics, Com-
pute Maximum Span and Insulator Voltage.
After determining where the stroke

AUGUST 1961 Anderson-Calculation of Transmission-Line Lightning Performance 417


Fig. 6. Test in progress on a nanosecond
geometrical model of an extra-high-voltage
transmission line tower. Large phase con-
ductor represents bundle conductor
occurs, the computer refers to appro-
priate stored curves of line response
characteristics for that particular stroke
location and line geometry (Fig. 4), com-
putes the total stresses created, and estab-
lishes the region where maximum dielec-
tric stress exists. On 2-ground-wire
lines, an examination is made to determine
whether, if one ground wire is stricken,
the stress to the other ground wire exceeds
the stress between ground wire and
nearest phase conductor. A similar rou
tine occurs for the quarter-span calcula-
tion.
From Tower Chara teristics, Compute
AMaximum Insulator Voltage. If the stroke
occurs to the tower, total voltage stresses
across tower insulators are computed,
including effects of footing resistance,
and power voltage phase angle.
From Volt-Time Curmes, Compute In-
sulation Strength. Now that the loca-
tion and magnitude of greatest stress are
established, the computation of the di-
electric strength of this region (i.e., tower
insulators or conductor-to-conductor air
gaps) is made by reference to stored volt-
time curves in computer memory. Ob-
viously, then, if the stresses exceed the
strength, a flashover is assumned to occur,
and failure counters are advanced.
The rest of the flow diagram is largely
self-explanatory, being a tabulation and
print-out of the failures. Of some interest
in the output format, Fig. 5, is the print-
out of current amplitude and time to
crest of 100 strokes causing failure. After
each amplitude is a letter T, Q, or M
indicating that the failure occurred for a
stroke to tower, quarter-span, or mid-span
respectively. If less than 100 strokes
cause failure, zeros are printed where no
failure is encountered. The term "failure
418 Anderson-Calculation of Transmission-Line Lightning Performance
probability" in the output format means tant, it can easily be included in the program.
the probability that a stroke contacting The inclusion of this component will make
the line will cause failure. The titles necessary changes in the magnitudes of
some of the other variables in order to make
and remarks at the top of the same format calculations and observations agree.
are to identify the line and to help the 4. A reliance on the nanosecond geomnetri-
programmer identify his input data. cal model4 to obtain the voltages generated
on lines and towers by strokes (Fig. 6).
Practical Decisions in Program Calculated responses were found to depend
Application greatly on estimates of "equivalent tower
diameters" and idealized electromagnetic
A program of this magnitude and com- fields, whereas the nanosecond model per-
mits geometries and fields to be simulated
plexity inevitably encounters difficult without approximation.
choices between concepts. A large num- 5. An assumption that the stroke current
ber of calculating schemes could be wave has a linearly rising front and a flat
devised to predict, with fair accuracy, the top. This restriction can be removed when
lightning outage rates of transmission field measurements establish mlore repre-
lines. Extensive field data are lacking, sentative waveshapes.
theoretical approaches seldom agree, f. "Prestrike" effects are neglected be-
and data on outage rates and line charac- cause of insufficient data in this respect.
Times to crest less than 0.5 microsecond
teristics are seldom complete. Therefore are also not used for the same reason.
the program had to be built by trial and
error, adopting concepts that gave "right" It is certain that some of these assump-
tions will not be acceptable to all workers
answers and discarding those that gave
"wrong" answers. This experimental in this field. It is not the purpose of this
approach resulted in: paper to advocate contentious theoret-
ical concepts, but to demonstrate a
1. The distribution of current amplitudes method of calculation adaptable to a
and times to crest shown in Figs. 1 and 2
respectively. wide range of statistical relationships.
2. An independence of current amplitudes
and times to crest, except that the statis- Results and Conclusions
tical probability of simultaneous occurrence
of a large current amplitude and a very short
time to crest for the same stroke becomes To date, the lightning outage rates of
extremely small. All other stroke charac- nine different transmission lines have been
teristics are also assumed independent, calculated by the Monte Carlo method.
except provision is made to limit the maxi- The results of these calculations are com-
mum stroke current rate of rise if a clearly pared with actual observed outage rates14
defined limitation is found from field in Fig. 7. The operating voltages of
measuremnents.
3. A neglect of the electrostatic component
these lines ranged from 110 kv to 345 kv,
of voltage on the line conductors,."' recog- included both wood pole and steel towers,
nizing that if field measurements now being and also represented both shield-wire and
inade show that this component is impor- no shield-wire conditions. In general,
(n ~ ~ ~ .-1
Fig. 7. Calculated and observed out- _ _ = _-
age rates on nine representative trant- a
mision lines
A-Kansas Gas and Electric Com- - =
pany 161-kv wood pole, double - -- -- -
ground wire line"
B-TVA 154-kv wood pole, double _ -
*- RFECT
ground wire line" -TCDELIO
C-Appalachian Electric Power - ---
Company 154-kv woodpole, double 3 - __ , i
ground wire line"sC
D-Commonwealth Edison Company c - Z - - l
138-kv steel tower, double ground c_l
wire O O e lO mu
E-An edstern 1 32-kv line with steel CALCULATED OUTAGE RATE /100 LINE MILES / YEAR
towers and double ground wires
F-Ohio Valley Electric Corporation 345-kv steel tower, single ground wire
G-Comision Federal de Electricidad (Mexico) 150-kv steel tower, double ground wire"
H-Metropolitan Water District (Southen California) 230-kv steel tower (a "no ground
wire" case)"
I-Georgia Power 110-kv wood pole, no ground wire line"
A~UGUST 1961
agreement has been excellent, one appre-
ciable departure from the observed values
being that of the Ohio Valley Electric
Corporation 345-kv lines; although even
this value is about an order of magnitude
more accurate than that given by the
present AIEE method."' Computer run-
ning time has averaged about 5 min-
utes per case, but varies considerably with
line lengths, tower heights, meteorological
conditions, and years of calculated ex-
perience desired. The method appears to
yield very practical results and adapts
nicely to investigation of specific aspects
of lightning performance. It is inher-
ently more accurate than present methods
using limited stroke characteristics.
References
1. TwO-YEAI LIG}HTNING EXPERIENCE ON 345-
Kv LINSs, H. L. Rorden, 3. S. Zobel, G. D. Lippert.
Discussion
H. Baatz (Studiengesellschaft fur Hoch-
spannungsanlagen e.V., Nellingen uber
Esslingen, Germany): In this paper a new
method is presented that apparently prom-
ises success in calculating the performance of
transmission lines against lightning faults.
The applicability and accuracy of the
calculating method is confirmed by the
comparison with the number of actually
observed tripouts as shown in Fig. 7. The
ratio of observed to calculated tripouts is
found in Table I.
The agreement in Table I, with excep-
tion of systems D and F, is remarkably
good, especially if one considers the yearly
variations of the isokeraunic level. With
respect to Fig. 5, it would be interesting to
know the observation time and calculating
time of the values given. One must
probably assume that the isokeraunic level
was kept constant for all years. This level
is a rather uncertain reference level because
of the probability of variation in duration
and severity of different thunderstorms.
In Germany, the tripouts of high-voltage
transmission lines are not particularly high,
so that a further reduction of tripouts due to
thunderstorms is of no particular impor-
tance. From tripout statistics of the Ger-
man high-voltage systems, one finds that in
1958, for instance, 2.14 tripouts per 100
miles occurred from thunderstorms, in
which are included all self-extinguishing
Table I
Transmission Line Ratio
A .0.74
.1.29
C .1.1
D .1.92
E .1.0
F .2.28
G .1.0
H .1.14
1. 1.22
AUGUST 1961 Anderson- Calciulation of Transmission-Line Lightning Performance
AIEE Transactions, pt. III (Power Apparatus and
Systems), vol. 76, Dec. 1957, pp. 954-60.
2. FACTORS AFFECTING THE LIGHTNING PERFORM-
ANCE, OF TRANSIuSsIoN LINES, J. H. Hagenguth,
J. G. Anderson. Ibid. (Feb. 1958 section), pp.
1379-92.
3. A NEw APPROACH TO THE CALCULATION OF
THE LIGTITMNO PERFORMANCE OF TRANSMISSION
LINES; III-A SIMPLIFIED METHOD: STROKE TO
TOWER, C. F. Wagner, A. R. Hileman. Ibid., vol.
79, Oct. 1960, pp. 589-603.
4. DETERMINATION OF LIGHTNING RESPONSED OF
TRANSMISSION LINES BY MEANS OF GEOMETRICAL
MODELS, F. A. Fisher, J. G. Anderson, J. H.
Hagenguth. Ibid., pt. II-B, vol. 78 (Feb. 1960
section), pp. 1725-36.
5. SIXTY-CYCLE AND IMPULSE SPARKOVER OF
LAROG GAP SPACINGS, J. H. Hagenguth, A. F.
Rohlfa, W. J. Degnan. Ibid., vol. 71, Jan. 1952,
pp. 455-60.
6. IMPULSE FLASHOVER CHARACTERISTICS OF
LONG STRINGS OF SUSPENSION INSULATORS, A. F.
Rohlfs, H. E. Fiegel. Ibid., vol. 76, 1957 (Feb. 1958
section), pp. 1321-29.
7. 1956 LIGHTNING FIRLD INVESTIGATION ON TER
OVEC 345-KV SYSTEM, R. H. Schlomann, W. S.
Price, I. B. Johnson, J. G. Anderson. Ibid., pp.
1447-59.
8. THE FREQUENCY OF OCCURRENCE AND THE
0-
single-phase faults to ground. The neutrals
of the 1 10-kv systems are grounded through
Petersen coils almost exclusively so that
single-phase faults to ground are self-ex-
tinguishing. If one ignores these faults
which do not cause tripouts, then the num-
ber of tripouts is reduced to 1.1 per 100
miles per year.
The neutrals of the German 220-kv sys-
tems have been solidly grounded for the last
few years. From the same statistics, one
finds 2.2 tripouts per 100 miles per year in
1958. The observation time of the German
380-kv line is too short to give conclusive
results. Until now, the specific tripout
level was considerably lower than in the
220-kv systems.
With the given data, the tripouts of the
German systems correspond about to lines
D and E of Fig. 5. One must also consider
that 1958 had a relatively high thunder-
storm activity. In Germany we do not
consider the mentioned tripout rates as too
high, particularly because they do not cause
operating difficulties. In the 220-kv sys-
tems the lightning-caused flashovers are
successfully extinguished with circuit break-
ers.
Because of these relatively favorable sit-
uations, there have not been such extensive
calculations of tripout rates on transmission
lines due to lightning.
If we have understood the paper correctly,
tower ground resistance values were chosen
by chance, as were the instantaneous values
of power-frequency voltage. While this
appears to us correct for the voltage, for the
ground resistance the actual values of the
lines should be used. The mentioned
maximum value of 10,000 ohms appears to
us extraordinarily high for highest voltage
lines.
W. S. Price (American Electric Power
Service Corporation, New York, N. Y.):
Mr. Anderson's application of modern
statistical and computer techniques to the
calculation of transmission-line lightning
performance is a notable development
DISTRIBUTION OF LIGHTNING FLASHES TO TRANS-
miSSION LINES, R. H. Golde. Ibid., vol. 64, 1945,
pp. 902-10.
9. Discussion by J. H. Hagenguth of reference 7.
pp. 1457-58.
10. LIGHTNING PROTECTION OF OVEDRHEAD TRANS-
MISSION LINES AND OPERATING EXPERIENCZ 111
THE U.S.S.R., V. V. Burgsdorf. Paper no. 326,
CIGRE, Paris, France, 1958.
11. A METHOD OF ESTIMATING LIGHTNING PER-
FORMANCE OF TRANSMISSION LINES, AIEE Com-
mittee Report. AIEE Transactions, vol. 69, pt. II,
1950, pp. 1187-96.
12. THE AMPLITUDE, TIME TO HALF-VALUE, AND
STEEPNESS OF LIIGHTNING CURRENTS, N. Hylten-
Cavallius, A. Stromberg. ASEA Journal,
Vasteras, Sweden, vol. 29, 1956, pp. 129-34.
13. LIGHTNING PERFORMANCE OF TYPICAL TRANS-
uSSION LINES, second edition. Publication no.
1321-H, Ohio Brass Company, Barberton, Ohio,
1955.
14. LIGHTNING PERFORMANCE OF HIGH VOLTAGE
TRANSMISSION LINES, 1. H. Hagenguth. Proceed-
ings, American Power Conference, Chicago, Ill.,
vol. XX, 1958.
15. RBPORT ON THE WORK OF STUDY COMMITTBE
No. 8 (LIGHTNING AND SURGES)-APPENDIX II.
THE SHIELDING EFFECT OF OVERtHEAD EARTH
WIRES. Paper no. 314, CIGRE, 1960.
which may well become the basic tool for our
future lightning design work. Now that
the program has been developed and de-
scribed in this excellent paper, it is obvious
that the best and possibly the only way to
study and predict the complicated interplay
of the six or seven variables which produce
lightning flashovers is by playing the saine
game with a digital computer. Mr. Ander-
son is to be congratulated for recognizing
this and for proceeding with the develop-
ment of this comprehensive computer pro-
gram.
The comparison of the game of Russian
roulette with attempts to design transmis-
sion lines by the "cut and try" method is
most appropriate and deserves amplifica-
tion. As noted in references 1 and 7 of the
paper, the lightning tripout rate of the 345-
kv systems has been several orders of mag-
nitude greater than that predicted by the
AIEE method. It must be that the various
factors used in the AIEE method are not
properly co-ordinated, or that important
factors influencing the tripout rate are not
included in the method. An attempt to
arrive at an optimum lightning design by
the "cut and try" method would require the
construction of a number of transmission
line sections, each several hundred miks in
length, with only a single variable such as
shielding angle, insulation level, or tower
height changed in each section. After 5
to 10 years of close observation, we might
be able to determine the effect of each vari-
able on performance, but would then have
the problem of designing and operating a
line for another 10 years with what ap-
peared to be the optimum mix of design
variables. During the 20-year test period,
our transmission designs would undoubtedly
be many millions of dollars away from the
optimum.
It is most encouraging that the program
has provided a good correlation between
calculated and observed outage rates over a
wide range of line designs. However,
further field measurements are urgently
required as input data for the program.
For instance, the only records available
419