Mengelola Ekonomi

di Tengah
Ketidakpastian

M. Chatib Basri
Unversity of Indonesia
 2

GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW

3 TANTANGAN UTAMA

PERLAMBATAN EKONOMI
HIGHER FOR LONGER GEOPOLITICAL CRISIS
CHINA
 INTEREST RATES ARE COMING DOWN IN EUROPE, THE FED WON’T FOLLOW YET
Markets around the world are reflecting the shifting landscape. ECB has began to cut their rate as inflation has
been gliding gently down with a slight hiccup last month and retail sales expectations point to a weakening in
core inflation components ahead. Meanwhile the Fed officials signal just one interest rate cut before end of 2024
Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24
United States
CPI, YoY 6,4 6,0 5,0 4,9 4,0 3,0 3,2 3,7 3,7 3,2 3,1 3,4 3,1 3,2 3,5 3,4 3,3
Manuf, PMI 46,7 47,7 51,7 51,3 47,1 45,2 50,5 47,9 50,6 49,1 47,9 46,4 50,8 53,8 53,2 50,6 52,0
Retail Sales, YoY 7,9 5,6 2,4 -0,2 3,4 1,9 2,2 3,5 3,9 2,9 4,2 4,0 1,6 6,3 2,3 4,0
Germany
CPI, YoY 8,7 8,7 7,4 7,2 6,1 6,4 6,2 6,1 4,5 3,8 3,2 3,7 2,9 2,5 2,2 2,2 2,4
Manuf, PMI 46,2 48,0 47,7 45,7 43,1 41,1 38,6 35,9 39,5 40,0 42,6 41,6 45,8 43,9 44,5 44,4 46,8
Retail Sales, YoY -0,5 -2,1 0,4 -3,7 -0,8 5,1 1,4 1,4 -3,5 2,7 0,7 -4,0 -0,3 3,7 -4,8
United Kingdom
CPI, YoY 10,1 10,4 10,1 8,7 8,7 7,9 6,8 6,7 6,7 4,6 3,9 4,0 4,0 3,4 3,2 2,3
Manuf, PMI 45,4 50,6 49,9 49,5 46,7 46,9 45,1 40,9 44,9 44,3 48,0 44,8 45,6 49,0 53,6 49,7 53,2
Retail Sales, YoY -5,7 -4,2 -4,4 -4,0 -2,5 -1,9 -3,2 -1,6 -1,5 -2,5 0,4 -3,7 0,0 -0,1 1,7 -4,0
Japan
CPI, YoY 4,4 3,3 3,3 3,5 3,2 3,3 3,3 3,1 3,0 3,3 2,9 2,6 2,1 2,8 2,7 2,5
Manuf, PMI 46,5 47,1 51,0 49,5 48,9 48,1 50,3 47,5 48,3 50,4 49,2 48,9 45,4 46,1 50,4 50,1 49,0
Retail Sales, YoY 4,9 7,4 6,9 5,1 5,8 5,6 7,0 7,1 6,3 4,1 5,4 2,3 2,1 4,7 1,2 2,3
China
CPI, YoY 2,1 1,0 0,7 0,1 0,2 0,0 -0,3 0,1 0,0 -0,2 -0,5 -0,3 -0,8 0,7 0,1 0,3 0,3
Manuf, PMI 46,3 52,4 50,8 50,1 51,5 50,1 49,2 51,1 51,3 49,5 53,1 51,8 50,9 45,2 53,9 52,2 52,5
Retail Sales, YoY 10,6 18,4 12,7 3,1 2,5 4,6 5,5 7,6 10,1 7,4 3,1 2,3
Indonesia
CPI, YoY 5,1 5,4 5,0 4,4 4,1 3,5 3,1 3,4 2,3 2,6 3,0 2,8 2,6 2,8 3,0 3,0 2,8
Manuf, PMI 50,9 50,8 52,7 54,1 50,2 52,8 53,3 52,5 50,6 50,0 52,5 54,4 53,4 51,9 55,0 53,7 51,8
Retail Sales, YoY -0,6 0,6 4,9 1,5 -4,5 7,9 1,6 1,1 1,5 2,4 2,1 0,2 1,1 6,4 9,3 0,1

Source: CEIC (2024)

3
 4

Kebijakan Bunga the Fed

 Apakah the Fed akan menurunkan bunga
segera?

 Bagaimana respon Bank Indonesia?

 KONDISI EKONOMI GLOBAL

Global economy relatively has been resilient, but slow and divergence across region and may enter recessions
GDP growth in developed countries
(percent, YoY)
US latest
4 2,95 GDP
growth
2
0
-0,09
-2 -0,93 -1,0
Japan United States Germany United Kingdom
Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23 Mar-24
GDP growth in developing countries
(percent, YoY)
15
China latest
10 GDP growth 7,8
5,3 3,9 5,1
5
0
China Malaysia Indonesia India
Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23 Mar-24

Source: CEIC (2024)

5
 Pertumbuhan ekoonomi China
China has recovered from COVID-19 economic recession, despite the growth is slowing down
compared to previous decades.

China’s annual real GDP growth

%Year on year CHINA USE TO BE AN ENGINE OF GLOBAL GROWTH  BACK TO NORMAL
GROWTH
16

14

12

10
Average economic growth
8 IMF
%

during 2001-2010 was 10.6

projection
6 5,2
Average economic growth 4,5
during 2011-2020 was 6.8 %
4

2 3
0
2…

2…

2…

2…

2…

2…
2…

2…

2…

2…

2…

2…

2…

2…

2…

2…

2…

2…

2…

2…

2…

2…

2…

2…
Sensitivity analysis: Penurunan 1% fall ekonomi China menurunkan ekonomi
Indonesia 0.2%

6
 7

Geopolitical tension
 US-China:

 Middle East conflict

 War in Ukraine

 Geo political fragmentation: economic security,

techno nationalism
 Ancaman Geo-economic Fragmentation
terhadap ketahanan pangan dan transisi 8
energi

Geo-economic
Fragmentation
Threatens Food
Security and Clean
Energy Transition
 Pertumbuhan Ekonomi 9

GDPGrowth by Expenditure
Indonesia'seconomy continuedtostrengthen in 1Q24, supportedby government spendingandnon-profit organizations
servinghouseholds
Quarterly GDP Growth (% yoy) Full-year GDP growth (%)

7.08

6.17

6.03
5.73
5.46

5.56
5.17

5.11

5.31
5.06
5.05

5.04
5.03

5.04
5.02
5.01

5.01

5.17
4.96

4.94

5.07
5.03

5.06
5.02

5.05
5.01

4.88

3.70
3.53
2.97

1Q21 -0.69
1Q20 -5.32

-2.07
3Q20-3.49
4Q20-2.17

2024F
2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023
1Q19
2Q19
3Q19
4Q19

2Q20

2Q21
3Q21
4Q21
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
4Q22
1Q23
2Q23
3Q23
4Q23
1Q24
GDP growth by expenditure
2022 (% yoy) 2023 (% yoy) Share Share Share Share Share
1Q24 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024-F 2020 2021 2022 2023 1Q24
Components (% yoy) (% yoy) (% yoy) (% yoy) (% yoy) (% yoy) (% of (% of (% of (% of (% of
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
GDP) GDP) GDP) GDP) GDP)
GDP 5.02 5.45 5.72 5.01 5.04 5.17 4.94 5.04 5.11 -2.07 3.69 5.31 5.05 5.06 100 100 100 100 100
Household spending 4.34 5.51 5.39 4.48 4.54 5.22 5.06 4.47 4.97 -2.63 2.02 4.93 4.82 5.23 53.9 53.0 52.8 52.7 54.9
Government
-6.94 -4.86 -2.55 -4.77 3.45 10.57 -3.76 2.81 19.90 2.12 4.24 -4.51 2.95 5.25 8.1 8.2 7.4 7.3 6.25
expenditure
Non-Profit Institutions
Servings Households 5.91 5.03 5.99 5.72 6.16 8.59 6.18 18.11 24.29 -4.21 1.62 5.66 9.83 10.01 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.43
Investment 4.09 3.07 4.98 3.33 2.11 4.63 5.77 5.02 3.79 -4.96 3.80 3.87 4.40 4.25 31.9 31.9 31.5 31.3 29.31
Exports 16.70 20.02 19.41 14.93 12.17 -2.97 -4.26 1.64 0.50 -8.14 17.95 16.28 1.32 -1.50 19.4 22.1 24.4 23.5 21.37
Imports 15.88 12.37 25.37 6.25 3.80 -3.06 -6.18 -0.15 1.77 -17.6 24.87 14.75 -1.65 2.40 15.7 18.9 20.7 19.4 19.77

Source: BPS Office of Chief Economist 55

Source: BPS
 LEADING INDICATORS
2022 2023 2024
CONSUMPTION LEADING INDICATORS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Vehicle sales, growth % YoY 59,0 64,6 16,0 4,8 -9,3 8,5 29,4 16,4 18,9 23,3 4,4 9,0 12,0 7,5 2,8 -28,7 65,3 4,7 -6,7 -8,3 -20,1 -13,8 -7,5 -19,1 -26,1 -18,8 -26,2 -17,5
Motorcycle sales, growth % YoY 12,5 -2,6 -13,6 -7,1 -2,5 -30,9 -13,3 11,6 10,7 20,9 26,9 24,6 38,6 56,3 40,5 -19,4 113,4 66,6 45,6 1,8 -0,9 -4,0 -2,8 -11,6 -3,7 -2,9 -7,8 18,3
Consumer confidence index, >100
119,6 113,1 111,0 113,1 128,9 128,2 123,2 124,7 117,2 120,3 119,1 119,9 123,0 122,4 123,3 126,1 128,3 127,1 123,5 125,2 121,7 124,3 123,6 123,8 125,0 123,1 123,8 127,7 125,2
optimist
Consumer expectation index, >100
138,3 130,8 128,1 127,2 141,5 141,8 135,5 137,7 126,1 128,3 127,9 127,3 133,9 132,5 133,5 135,5 137,8 137,5 133,2 135,0 131,3 134,2 134,2 133,9 134,5 135,3 133,8 136,0 135,0
optimist
Consumer current condition index, >100
100,9 95,5 93,9 98,9 116,4 114,5 110,9 111,7 108,3 112,3 110,3 112,4 112,1 112,4 113,1 116,6 118,9 116,8 113,8 115,5 112,2 114,4 113,0 113,6 115,6 110,9 113,8 119,4 115,4
optimist
Retail sales index, growth % YoY 15,2 12,9 9,3 8,5 2,9 4,1 6,2 4,9 4,6 3,7 1,3 0,7 -0,6 0,6 4,9 1,5 -4,5 7,9 1,6 1,1 1,5 2,4 2,1 0,2 1,1 6,4 9,3 0,1 4,7
Hotel occupancy rate: Jakarta, % 52,3 46,1 52,7 45,8 51,8 54,3 54,5 54,8 54,0 56,5 60,8 59,6 48,4 52,6 53,4 42,5 50,8 55,6 55,5 55,9 57,3 56,4 61,4 61,5 51,7 51,1 44,1 43,5
Hotel occupancy rate: Bali, % 20,7 14,9 21,9 19,0 37,4 38,8 37,5 38,4 46,5 46,3 48,9 53,8 46,2 41,2 40,0 44,3 47,3 59,6 63,6 60,6 59,3 57,4 54,9 62,2 56,3 55,3 52,7 57,7
Visitor arrivals, growth % YoY -3,6 -0,6 18,4 104,0 154,5 281,5 407,0 465,7 483,4 402,4 336,5 482,1 554,6 612,4 512,1 276,3 168,7 119,6 73,8 68,9 52,8 33,3 41,7 20,2 16,2 41,7 19,9 23,2

Credit consumption, growth %YoY 5,2 6,0 6,4 6,2 7,0 7,5 8,1 9,1 8,7 9,1 9,4 9,3 9,6 9,1 8,8 9,7 9,1 9,1 9,2 8,4 9,1 9,1 8,9 9,5 9,4 10,1 10,0
Import of consumption, growth % YoY 10,3 -3,0 25,7 4,2 7,8 3,3 1,3 -2,0 -11,2 10,1 -16,2 -27,4 1,1 13,4 -2,9 -17,7 36,5 -6,6 57,0 15,4 4,7 3,8 19,8 13,4 11,0 36,5 5,0 0,6
M2, growth % YoY 13,0 12,8 13,3 13,6 12,1 10,7 9,6 9,5 9,1 9,8 9,6 8,4 8,2 7,9 6,2 5,6 6,1 6,1 6,4 5,9 6,0 3,4 3,3 3,5 5,4 5,3 7,2 6,9
Inflation* (CPI), % YoY 2,2 2,1 2,6 3,5 3,6 4,3 4,9 4,7 6,0 5,7 5,4 5,5 5,3 5,5 5,0 4,3 4,0 3,5 3,1 3,3 2,3 2,6 2,9 2,6 2,6 2,8 3,0 3,0 2,8
CPI: Core*, % YoY 1,8 2,0 2,4 2,6 2,6 2,6 2,9 3,0 3,2 3,3 3,3 3,4 3,3 3,1 2,9 2,8 2,7 2,6 2,4 2,2 2,0 1,9 1,9 1,80 1,68 1,68 1,77 1,82 1,93
CPI: Administered*, % YoY 2,4 2,3 3,1 4,8 4,8 5,3 6,5 6,8 13,3 13,3 13,0 13,3 12,3 12,2 11,6 10,3 9,5 9,2 8,4 8,0 2,0 2,1 2,1 1,72 1,74 1,67 1,39 1,54 1,52
CPI: Volatile*, % YoY 3,4 1,8 3,3 5,5 6,0 10,1 11,5 8,9 9,0 7,2 5,7 5,6 5,7 7,6 5,8 3,7 3,3 1,2 0,0 2,4 3,6 5,5 7,6 6,73 7,22 8,47 10,33 9,63 8,14
CPI: Volatile: Energy*, % YoY 1,0 1,2 2,1 4,1 4,2 4,2 5,0 5,8 16,5 16,9 16,8 16,9 15,3 15,0 14,4 12,1 12,0 11,3 10,5 9,6 0,1 0,1 -0,2 -0,4 -0,1 -0,1 -0,4 -0,3 -0,3

CPI: Volatile: Food Ingredients*, % YoY 3,4 2,0 3,4 5,4 5,9 9,6 10,9 8,5 8,7 7,0 5,7 5,6 5,7 7,4 5,7 3,8 3,3 1,4 0,3 2,5 3,6 5,3 7,2 6,4 6,0 7,0 8,5 8,0 6,8

Source: CEIC (2024)

10
Neraca Pembayaran mencatat penurunan tajam, defisit USD 5.97 miliar karena
menyusutnya surplus perdagangan barang dan melebarnya defisit neraca pendapatan
primer. Tingginya minat dalam jangka panjang menyebabkan sentimen risk-off di pasar
keuangan meningkat dan aktivitas perdagangan global melemah
Neraca transaksi berjalan yang terus mengalami defisit Arus kas keluar dan aksi jual di pasar SBN menjelaskan
disebabkan oleh melemahnya kinerja ekspor di tengah penurunan tajam saldo rekening keuangan, yang
normalisasi harga komoditas dan berkurangnya mungkin tidak akan membaik dalam waktu dekat
permintaan dari mitra dagang utama. Sementara itu, mengingat masih lemahnya permintaan terhadap aset
defisit pendapatan primer melebar akibat meningkatnya keuangan Indonesia.
pembayaran bunga utang luar negeri akibat kenaikan
suku bunga
20 8
15 6
10 4

USD billion

% of GDP
30 2 5 2
20 0 0 0
USD billion

% of GDP
10 -5 -2
-2
0 -10 -4
-4 -15 -6
-10

2016
2017
2018
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
-20 -6
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024

Other investment

Secondary income Portfolio investment

Primary income Direct investment

Services Financial acc. (% of GDP)

Goods
Current acc. (% of GDP)
11
 RESIKO FISKAL
Pendapatan pemerintah diperkirakan lebih rendah dari perkiraan akibat koreksi harga
komoditas. Di sisi lain, belanja berpotensi lebih tinggi.Namiun defisit anggaran akan dijaga
dibawah 3%

Govt’ budget realization and 2024 budget Macroeconomic Assumption Indicator

posture
(IDR Tn)
Gov't Budget Macroeconomic 2023 2024
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 RA 2024
Realization Assumption APBN Realization APBN Realization

Gov't Revenue 1,960.6 1,647.8 2,011.3 2,635.8 2,774.3 Economic growth (%) 5,3 5,05 5,2 5,11
2,802.3
Tax Revenue 1,546.1 1,285.1 1,547.8 2,034.6 2,155.4
2,309.9 Inflation (%) 3,6 2,61 2,8 2,84
Non-Tax
414.5 362.6 463.5 601.3 618.9 492.0
Revenue Exchange rates (IDR/USD) 14.800 15.255 15.000 16.084 (enp)
Gov't
2,309.3 2,595.5 2,786.4 3,096.3 3,121.9
Expenditure 3,325.1 6,94% (eop)
Interest rate SBN 10 years 7,9 6,68 6,7
6,74% (ytd)
Central
1,496.3 1,833.0 2,000.7 2,280.0 2,240.6
government 2,467.5 87,61 (eop)
Oil price (USD/barrel) 90 78,43 82
82,15 (ytd)
Regional
813.0 762.5 785.7 816.2 881.3 857.6
Transfer Oil lifting (th barrels/day) 660 605,5 635 561,1
Surplus/Defisit (348.7) (947.7) (775.1) (460.4) (347.6)
(522.8)
Gas lifting (tbopd) 1.100 960,4 1.033 927,3
%GDP (2.20) (6.14) (4.57) (2.35) (1.65) (2.29)
Gov't
402.1 1,193.3 871.7 591.0 359.5 522.8
Financing
Source: MoF (2024)

12
 Mendinginnya ketegangan antara Israel dan Iran berkontribusi pada
penurunan harga minyak …

2022: Russia vs Ukraine, - US VS China

- Palestine vs Israel Israel
2020: Covid-19, social distancing causes increase in oil, fertilizer
- Yemen vs Saudi Arabia vs
supply chain disruption staples, and wheat prices
Iran
350,00 140,00
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
300,00 120,00

250,00 100,00

200,00 80,00

150,00 60,00

100,00 40,00

50,00 20,00

0,00 0,00
Jan-20

Jan-21

Jan-22

Jan-23

Jan-24
Aug-23
Aug-20

Apr-21
May-21

Aug-21

Aug-22

Apr-24
Apr-20

Apr-22

Apr-23
May-20

Nov-21

May-22

May-23

May-24
Mar-20

Nov-20

Nov-22

Nov-23

Mar-24
Jul-22
Mar-21

Mar-22

Mar-23
Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-23
Oct-20

Dec-21
Oct-21

Oct-22

Oct-23
Feb-20

Sep-20

Dec-20

Dec-22

Feb-23

Sep-23

Dec-23
Jun-22
Jun-20

Feb-21

Jun-21

Sep-21

Feb-22

Sep-22

Jun-23

Feb-24
Geopolitical Risk Index Brent Oil (USD/barrel) WTI(USD/barrel)
Source: Caldarra & Lacoviello, CEIC (2024)

13
 14
Dampak ke APBN

Impact toGovernment State Budget (APBN)

On average, until 18-Apr-24, if oil price andUSD/IDRcontinue tostay above the government’sassumption, it will
increase APBN’sburden (spending)
Oil Price vs Government Assumption Sensitivity to State Budget (APBN) and Fuel Price (BBM)
Government's Assumption Brent Oil Price (average)
140
89.3 Rupiah Crude Oil
120
84.7 IDR tn. unless stated otherwise Exchange Rate Price
USD/barrel

100
90 ↑Rp100/USD ↑USD1
80
60 63 82 Revenue 5.4 3.3
40
20
Domestic Revenue 5.4 3.3
0 Tax Revenue 4.0 1.5

18-Apr
Non Tax Revenue 1.4 1.8
Jan

Sep

Sep
Jul

Nov
Jan

Jul

Nov
Jan
May

May
Mar

Mar

Mar Grant 0.0 0.0

2022 2023 2024
Spending 8.5 9.2
USD/IDR vs Government Assumption 15,935 Central Government Spending 7.4 8.5
Government's Assumption Brent Oil Price (average)
16,500 Regional Transfer 1.1 0.7
16,000
15,709
15,500
USD/IDR

Surplus/Deficit -3.1 -5.8

15,000
14,500
14,800 Financing -0.9 0.0
14,350 15,000
14,000
13,500 76.0
Pertalite (IDR)
13,000
Solar (IDR) 77.8
18-Apr
Jan

Jul
Sep

Jan

Jul
Sep

Jan
Mar
May

Nov

Mar
May

Nov

Mar

2022 2023 2024

Source: Bloomberg, Ministry of Finance Office of Chief Economist 14
 15

Jangka Menengah Panjang

 TO ACHIEVE THE OBJECTIVE OF THE GOLDEN
INDONESIA 2045 : BIG AND PERSISTENT EFFORT

TARGETS OF ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION FOR

INDONESIA GOLD 2045
Economic transformation aims to lift Indonesia out of the middle-income trap and into a high-income country. For this reason, the
Indonesian economy must achieve an average growth of 6-7% in the next 20 years, high economic growth that is inclusive and
sustainable

Economic Transformation
Indonesia has been 22
trapped in MIT for 30 years
years (1993-2022 1. Science and Technology, Innovation and
Economic Productivity
Optimistic Scenario
2. Green Economy Implementation
Transformative Scenario 3. Digital Transformation
Baseline 4. Domestic and Global Economic Integration
5. Cities as Centers of Economic Growth

First Phase Downstream natural resources and

(2025-2029) strengthening innovation research and labor
productivity
Second Phase Massive increase in productivity and expansion
(2030-2034) of sources of economic growth

Third Phase Economic power house that is integrated with

Years Escape form global and domestic chain networks, as well as
Scenario Average Grow th (2035-2039)
M IT strong exports
Transformative 6% 2041 Fourth Phase High income country
Optimistic 7% 2038 (2040-2045)

Source: Preliminary Draft RPJPN 2025-2045, May 19 2023 19

1
6
 Can we grow faster than 6%?? 17

 ICOR=6,8 (rasio investasi/PDB)

(2016-22)
 Setiap tambahan pertumbuhan ICOR: INDONESIA
PDB sebesar 1% memerlukan 8,00

peningkatan investasi/PDB 7,00 6,76

sebesar 6,8%. 6,00

5,00
4,80
5,74

4,42 4,41 4,41

4,01

 Jika Indonesia ingin

4,00

meningkatkan PDB sebesar 6%,

3,00

2,00

rasio I/GDP harus berkisar 1,00

antara 6%x6.8%=40.8% 0,00

1986-1991 1990-1995 1995-2001 2001-2006 2006-2011 2011-2016 2016-2022

 S=Rasio Tabungan Domestik 50,00

Indonesia: Gross Domestic Savings VS Investment needs

Bruto/PDB Indonesia adalah 37

47,3

45,00
40,5

(Bank Dunia) (2016-22)

40,2
40,00
36,89
34,5
35,00 33,6
31,0 30,9 30,9
29,43 29,4228,8 29,94
30,00 28,07 28,1 28,71
27,59
26,5 26,4 26,4

 S/PDB < I/PDB; Defisit CA > 3%

24,1
25,00

20,00

15,00

 Pilihan kebijakan: meningkatkan

10,00

5,00

rasio pajak; menarik penanaman 0,00

1986-1991 1990-1995 1995-2001 2001-2006 2006-2011 2011-2016 2016-2022

modal asing untuk mengisi GDS/GDP Inv/GDP (6% growth) Inv/GDP (7% growth)

kesenjangan pendanaan; Average. Data 1998-99 and 2020 are not included (outliar
due to crisis)
meningkatkan produktivitas
untuk menurunkan ICOR
(sumber daya manusia,
infrastruktur, tata kelola yang
baik)
 Akankah paradoks Chile terjadi 18
di Indonesia?

• Chili mengalami pertumbuhan ekonomi

yang pesat
• Pengurangan kemiskinan dan
kesenjangan tercepat di kawasan ini.
• Banyak warga Chile merasa bahwa
kesenjangan telah meningkat pesat.
• Malestar' memicu kerusuhan sosial yang
disertai kekerasan pada Oktober 2019.
 19

Chilean Paradox

• Ketimpangan vertikal vs horizontal

• Narasi dan persepsi
• Ekspektasi vs kenyataan
(kecepatan)

• Sumber: Edwards, 2023

 20

Wihardja, 2024
 21

Source: BPS
 22

Perbankan dan sektor

keuangan
 Meskipun tingkat suku bunga tinggi, kredit tumbuh sebesar 12.4 % yoy pada bulan April’24
…

Policy Rate (%) Loan Growth (%YoY)

9,0 20
total credit
8,0

7,0 14.6
6,25 15
6,00
6,0 Indonesia Investment 12.4
5,33 12.3
5,0 5,33
USA 10
4,0 Working Capital 10.0

3,0
Consumption
2,0 5

1,0

0,0
0
Jun-22
Jul-22

Oct-22

Jun-23

Oct-23
Jan-22

Jan-23

Jul-23
Aug-23

Jan-24
Aug-22
May-22

Nov-22

Nov-23
May-23

May-24
Sep-23
Feb-22
Mar-22

Sep-22

Feb-23
Mar-23

Feb-24
Mar-24
Dec-21

Dec-22

Dec-23
Apr-22

Apr-23

Apr-24

Apr-23
Apr-22

Apr-24
Oct-21

Oct-22

Oct-23
Jul-21

Jan-22

Jul-22

Jan-23

Jul-23

Jan-24
Source: Bank Indonesia, CEIC (2024)

23
 Seiring dengan pertumbuhan kredit yang signifikan pada bulan April, DPK juga
meningkat sebesar 8.1% yoy.

TPF Growth, % YoY TPF Growth, by nominal, % YoY

30,0
19,00 < 100 jt 100-500 jt 500jt - 1 M
Third Party Funds
Demand Deposit 1M - 2M 2M - 5M >5M
25,0 In Apr’24, TPF for the >5M
category shows a significant
increase, but this could
14,00 indicates “wait and see”
20,0 period for them
12.4

15,0
9,00
Saving
Time 11.9 7.7
10,0
Deposit 7.1
Deposit 6.7
8.2
8.1 4,00 4.3
5,0 4.1
5.0

0,0 -1,00
Aug-19

Aug-20

Aug-21

Aug-22

Aug-23
Jun-19
Oct-19

Jun-20
Oct-20

Jun-21
Oct-21

Jun-22
Oct-22

Jun-23
Oct-23
Feb-19

Feb-23

Feb-24
Dec-19
Feb-20

Dec-20
Feb-21

Dec-21
Feb-22

Dec-22

Dec-23
Apr-19

Apr-20

Apr-21

Apr-22

Apr-23

Apr-24

Oct-20

Oct-21

Oct-22

Oct-23
Jan-22

Jul-23
Jan-20

Jul-20

Jan-21

Jul-21

Jul-22

Jan-23

Jan-24
Apr-20

Apr-21

Apr-22

Apr-23

Apr-24
Source: Bank Indonesia, ceic (2024)

24
 Ekspektasi penurunan suku bunga yang lebih rendah telah menyebabkan melemahnya
mata uang terhadap USD.
USD/IDR
As of June 14, 2024

17.500 150,00
Currency Movement
16.500 (%Ytd) 2,32
4,14DXY Index
Russia
16,297 Russia: rouble appreciate against USD as
140,00 OPEC + decides to prolong production cut 1,12 South Africa
15.500
-0,52 India
Africa: rand strengthen as The -1,59 Vietnam
USD/IDR crisis at South Africa’s state- -2,06 China
ow ned utility Eskom has been
14.500 USD Emerging 130,00
132.4 fixed -2,52 Singapore
Markets Index (RHS) -2,65 Malaysia
-3,23 Australia
13.500 -3,41 Euro
USD Broad 120,00
123.8 -5,64 Indonesia
Index (RHS)
-6,20 Swiss
12.500
-6,33 Korea
-9,06 Mexico
11.500 110,00 -9,64 Turkey
3-Apr-24
6-Apr-24
9-Apr-24
12-Apr-24
15-Apr-24
18-Apr-24
21-Apr-24
24-Apr-24
27-Apr-24
30-Apr-24
1-Jan-24
4-Jan-24
7-Jan-24

2-Jun-24
31-Jan-24

5-Jun-24
8-Jun-24
Brazil
10-Jan-24
13-Jan-24
16-Jan-24
19-Jan-24
22-Jan-24
25-Jan-24
28-Jan-24

11-Jun-24
7-Mar-24
3-Feb-24
6-Feb-24
9-Feb-24

1-Mar-24
4-Mar-24
18-Feb-24
27-Feb-24

16-Mar-24
25-Mar-24

3-May-24
6-May-24
9-May-24
12-Feb-24
15-Feb-24
21-Feb-24
24-Feb-24

10-Mar-24
13-Mar-24
19-Mar-24
22-Mar-24
28-Mar-24
31-Mar-24

15-May-24
24-May-24
12-May-24
18-May-24
21-May-24
27-May-24
30-May-24
-10,78
-11,02 Japan
-11,76 Argentina
-15,00 -10,00 -5,00 0,00 5,00

Source: CEIC (2024)

25
 Setelah periode net outflow sejak April’24, sejumlah besar capital inflow ke
Indonesia sebagian besar berasal dari SRBI.

IHSG Foreign Net Buy (IDR Bn) Indonesia’s Govt. Bond Ownership (Daily 5 , %)
Data as of Jun 14, 2024 Data as of Jun 14, 2024

5000 100% 14.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 Foreign ownership is narrowing
90% 0
FOREIGN
3000 80% 3.09
70%

1000
60% MUTUAL FUND 37.7
8
50%

40% OTHER non BANK

-1000
30%

20%
21.6
-3000
10%
CENTRAL BANK 4
0%
Jun-20

Jun-21

Jun-22

Jun-23

Jun-24
Mar-22
Mar-20

Sep-20

Mar-21

Sep-21

Sep-22
Dec-22
Mar-23

Sep-23

Mar-24
Dec-19

Dec-20

Dec-21

Dec-23
-5000
Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24
23.5
26
Source: CEIC (2024)
0

26
 Setelah mengalami penurunan selama 4 bulan berturut-turut, cadangan devisa mulai
meningkat yang bersumber dari aliran masuk modal dari penerbitan obligasi global,
SRBI, dan DHE.

Currency and International reserves

(Currency: IDR/USD; Reserve: (USD Mn)

150.000
16.400

148.000 16.200

16.084
146.000 16.000

15.800
144.000
15.600
142.000
15.400
RESERVE (LHS) 138.973
140.000 15.200
USD/IDR (RHS)
138.000 15.000

14.800
136.000
14.600
134.000
14.400

132.000 14.200

130.000 14.000

Jan-24
Jan-21

Jan-22

Jan-23
Jul-22
Jun-21
Jul-21

Oct-21

Jun-22

Oct-22

Jun-23
Jul-23

Oct-23
Aug-21

Nov-21

Aug-23
Aug-22

Nov-22

Nov-23
Mar-21
Dec-20

Feb-21

Sep-21

Feb-22
Mar-22

Sep-22

Dec-22

Feb-23
Mar-23

Sep-23

Feb-24
Mar-24
Dec-21

May-23

Dec-23
May-21

May-22

May-24
Apr-22

Apr-24
Apr-21

Apr-23
Source: Bank Indonesia, CEIC (2024)

27
 BI Rate masih memiliki perbedaan yang signifikan dibandingkan instrumen penstabil
IDR. Sedangkan SRBI dapat mempengaruhi permintaan INDOGB.

Tuesday, 8
Instrument 23 April 2024
May 2024

SVBI usd mn 1,961.5 1,977

7,48
7,5 7,38
SUVBI usd mn 324 327 7,29

SRBI IDR tn 410.74 558.23

23-Apr-24
7
DHE USD bn 1,900.00 N.A 17-May-24
6,89
LCT 6,82 29-Mar-24
usd mn 1,370.00 N.A
Transaction 29-Feb-24
6,5
31-Jan-24
6,29
SRBI rate
Friday, 16 February Friday, 15
Last Month:
17 Mei 2024 6,25
tenor
2024 March 2024 SRBI offers higher
6 return and shorter
6 month 6.62 6.68 7.29 tenor than Indo Govt.
Bonds
9 month 6.7 6.69 7.38
5,5
BI Rate SRBI 6 month SRBI 9 month SRBI 12 IndoGb 1Y IndoGb 5y IndoGb 10y
12 month 6.82 6.87 7.48 month

Source: RDG Bank Indonesia (2024)

28
Kepemilikan emas diperkirakan akan terus meningkat karena investor mencari lindung
nilai terhadap inflasi yang membandel
Commodity price changes Analysis
Data as of Jun 14, 2024 As of Jun 14, 2024
Commodity price changes
YTD, percent End of Dec 14/06/2024 • CPO price increases ytd with EL Nino limiting output and
higher biodiesel mandates.
Food 7,4 CPO 3,662.0 3,934.0 • However, CPO price falling mtm, as the price of it’s
substitute falls (edible oil).
14,8 Natural gas125.7 144.3

-8,0 Coal 6000 146.4 134.8

• Natural Gas: Demand softens due to mild winter
Energy 8,9 Crude oil 75.9 82.6 • Coal: Decrease ytd, yet increase mtm. As china import form
3,5 Zinc Australia elevates.
2,640.5 2,732.0
• Oil: Price of the benchmark Brent crude is near three-
-4,3 Platinum 1,000.0 957.0 month lows. Members are failing to keep to their output
targets and china demand for oil has not resurgent.
Metals Aluminum 2,335.5

Source: Investing.com, CEIC (2024)

5,6 2,465.5

22,8 Silver 23.8 29.2

Rising 13,9 Copper 8,476.0 9,650.0
manufacture • Copper: Increased. Triggered by Chinese smelter
PMI 12,1 Gold 2,078.4 2,330.5 maintenance in q2’24
• TIN: Global semiconductor boom, with disruption in
6,0 Nickel 16,300.0 17,275.0 global supply
• Gold: Rise as all speculation back on gold due to low
3,8 Lead 2,031.0 2,109.0 rate cut expectation
• Lead: Price increase, due to China slowing exports of
28,7 Tin 25,175.0 32,410.0
refined lead.
• Nickel: Projection of Increase in global EV sales, and
reduction in nickel production
-10,0 0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0

29
 30

Ekonomi Jawa Barat

 31

Kinerja ekonomi Jawa Barat

 Pertumbuhan ekonomi Jawa Barat terus mengalami perlambatan selama dua tahun terakhir, tumbuh 4,93 % yoy
pada Q1-2024, berada di bawah level nasional
 Perlambatan dipengaruhi oleh menurunnya kinerja industri pengolahan serta kinerja net ekspor, baik luar negeri
maupun antar daerah
 Ekonomi Jawa Barat sebagian besar digerakkan oleh domestik baik konsumsi maupun investasi dengan kinerja
yang relatif terjaga
Pertumbuhan ekonomi Jawa Barat dan PDRB sisi lapangan usaha Jawa Barat PDRB sisi pengeluaran Jawa Barat
nasional (%, yoy) (%, yoy)
(%, yoy)
10 8 20
Net Ekspor Antar Daerah
8 6 4,93 Impor
Ekspor
6 5,11 Perubahan Inventori
4 Jasa- 10 4,93
4 jasa Ekspor
4,93 2 dan
Utilitas PMTB
2 Industr
impor
0 Konsum
i
0 Pertan 0 si
-2 Net
-2 ekspor
-4 antar
-4 daerah
-10
-6
-6
-8 -8

-10 -20
I III I III I III I III I III I III I I III I III I III I III I III I III I

Jawa Barat Indonesia 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 20232024 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 20232024

Sumber: BPS Jaw a Barat (2024)

 32

Kinerja ekonomi Jawa Barat

 Kinerja manufaktur Jawa Barat mengalami perlambatan dua tahun terakhir, khususnya pada industri tekstil akibat
tekanan permintaan baik pasar domestik maupun luar negeri di tengah perlambatan ekonomi global
 Sektor pertanian terkontraksi paling dalam akibat gagal panen dipengaruhi oleh iklim dan bencana alam
Pertumbuhan ekonomi sektoral Jawa Barat
(%, yoy)
30 Pertumbuhan ekonomi sub-sektor industrI* pengolahan Jawa Barat
(%, yoy)
20 10,26
14,43
7,5 8,35 Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4-
10 3,87
0,67
4,86 Share 2021 2021 2021 2021 2022 2022 2022 2022 2023 2023 2023 2023
0 (%) Industri
-4,58 7,20 5,74 9,15 8,30 7,61 6,43 5,80 6,62 5,68 4,73 2,09
pengolahan
-10 -0,96
Batubara dan
3,87 -7,92 -0,55 1,24 2,77 -33,39 -18,46 12,05 39,71 97,45 65,60 -5,96 -16,03
-20 -10,98 migas
Makanan dan
13,32 9,40 12,91 6,39 6,68 1,60 3,77 3,30 6,01 5,98 4,42 8,08 5,11
minuman
0,31 Tembakau 2,91 4,11 -0,44 -6,86 -6,26 -7,07 -4,76 -3,51 0,19 1,17 1,42 -0,69
15,36 Tekstil -7,06 -4,52 -4,21 4,92 13,97 17,52 6,78 4,28 -0,95 -1,20 -1,24 -1,14
Kulit dan alas
1,45 20,94 19,29 2,49 -4,65 0,83 6,19 11,00 4,54 -7,16 -1,96 1,14 2,44
kaki
40
0,56 Kayu -0,03 -1,80 -0,50 0,23 3,48 5,56 -1,22 -7,40 -5,35 -4,99 1,33 0,80
30
17,49 2,30 Kertas -2,26 0,37 0,25 7,39 3,75 2,40 0,15 -1,00 2,50 2,97 3,90 6,31
20 8,96 9,47
5,73 6,02 6,92 7,86 6,67 4,93 7,70 Kimia dan farmasi 9,18 4,19 9,56 13,51 6,99 1,84 0,03 -1,92 -0,39 -2,13 -2,98 -1,28
10
2,30 Karet dan plastik -5,48 5,13 -4,28 6,23 4,13 5,83 6,46 -3,27 2,89 -1,09 1,21 2,09
0 Galian bukan
-10 1,41
logam
-7,64 12,58 10,94 8,23 4,19 -2,39 1,32 -1,30 -0,03 2,46 3,10 5,13

3,06 Logam dasar -16,86 -9,85 13,93 16,57 15,47 8,33 1,66 6,71 16,38 13,87 9,36 0,42
Logam, komputer,
19,40 -11,09 4,54 -6,75 0,35 7,49 4,92 10,96 8,03 11,52 10,54 13,53 5,07
elektronik
7,81 Mesin -6,18 16,36 8,84 0,03 -6,92 -0,59 -0,22 -3,34 -3,90 0,15 1,60 2,30
Q1-2022 Q2-2022 Q3-2022 Q4-2022 Q1-2023 19,91 Alat angkutan -7,11 21,22 32,46 30,76 27,01 18,76 9,94 8,16 5,95 4,98 5,03 4,59
Q2-2023 Q3-2023 Q4-2023 Q1-2024
Sumber: BPS Jaw a Barat (2024) 0,32 Furnitur -23,97 -19,22 -7,73 14,92 14,25 9,02 -2,63
*) data-3,41 -0,09
subsektor 1,66
tersedia hanya -0,30 -0,23
sampai Q4-2023

0,91 Lainnya 8,43 15,27 -4,69 1,62 3,14 0,95 8,03 3,78 3,99 3,17 1,72 -1,33
 33

Kinerja ekonomi Jawa Barat

Tingkat pengangguran dan penciptaan lapangan pekerjaan relatif terjaga, namun penciptaan lapangan pekerjaan pada
sektor pertanian mengalami penurunan terbesar sejalan dengan kinerja ekonomi sektor terkait

Tingkat pengangguran Jawa Barat dan nasional Penciptaan lapangan pekerjaan Jawa Barat
(Persen) (Juta orang)

16 Pertanian -0,39
14 -0,01
Industri pengolahan 0,21
0,02
12 Pengadaan air 0,04
-0,08
10 Perdagangan 0,1
0
8 Akomodasi mamin 0,06
0,07
6 6,91 Jasa keuangan 0,06
0,01
4 4,82
Jasa perusahaan 0,06
0,14
2 Pendidikan 0,1
0,07
0 Jasa lainnya 0,22
1988

1994

2001

2007

2013

2019
1986

1990
1992

1997
1999

2003
2005

2009
2011

2015
2017

2021
2023

-1,4 -0,9 -0,4 0,1 0,6

2022 2023 2024
Jawa Barat Indonesia
Sumber: BPS Jaw a Barat (2024)
 34
Kinerja ekonomi Jawa Barat
 Kinerja ekonomi domestik Jawa Barat relatif terjaga didukung momentum pemilu presiden, tercermin dari tingkat
konsumsi pemerintah dan LNPRT, serta investasi yang ekspansif. Sementara konsumsi RT sedikit mengalami
perlambatan tetapi tetap solid
 Kinerja ekspor-impor sempat terkontraksi namun mulai mengalami perbaikan di tengah perlambatan ekonomi
global

Indeks kepercayaan konsumen dan penjualan Pertumbuhan ekonomi sisi pengeluaran Jawa Barat
retail Jawa Barat (%, yoy)

240 140 40 32,85

30
220 120 20,28
20
9,72
200 100 10 4,97

180 80
0
-10
160 60
-20
50 Konsumsi RT Konsumsi LNPRT Konsumsi Pemerintah PMTB
140 40

120 20
30
100 0
Apr-22

Oct-22

Apr-23

Oct-23

Apr-24
Jul-22

Jul-23

Jan-24
Jan-22

Jan-23

10 4,93
0,87

Indeks Penjualan Retail (RHS) -0,06

-10
Indeks Kepercayaan Konsumen Q1-2021 Ekspor
Q2-2021 Q3-2021 Impor
Q4-2021 Q1-2022 PDRB
Q2-2022 Q3-2022
Sumber: BPS Jaw a Barat , Bank I ndonesia (2024)
Q4-2022 Q1-2023 Q2-2023 Q3-2023 Q4-2023 Q1-2024
 35

Kinerja ekonomi Jawa Barat

Kinerja neraca perdagangan Jawa Barat khususnya dari industri mengalami perlambatan, sejalan dengan kinerja sektor
manufaktur Jawa Barat di tengah kondisi perlambatan ekonomi global

Neraca perdagangan Jawa Barat Ekspor berdasarkan sektor Jawa Barat Impor berdasarkan sektor Jawa Barat
(USD juta) (USD juta, 3-mo moving average) (USD juta, 3-mo moving average)

2.600 120 100 4000 1200

2.400 100 3500
80 1000
2.200 80 3000
2500 800
60 60
2.000
40 2000 600
1.800 40 1500
20 400
1.600 1000
0 20 200
1.400 -20 500
1.200 0 0 0
-40

Oct-18

Oct-21
Jan-18

Jan-21

Jan-24
Jul-19

Jul-22
Apr-20

Apr-23
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
Jan-24
1.000 -60
Oct-19
Aug-18
Jan-18

Mar-19

Feb-22

Nov-23
Sep-22
Dec-20
Jul-21
May-20

Apr-23

Pertanian Pertanian
Pertambangan Industri
Neraca perdagangan (USD miliar)
Hasil minyak Pertambangan
Ekspor, RHS (% yoy) Lainnya Hasil minyak
Impor, RHS (% yoy) Industri (RHS) Lainnya
Sumber: BPS Jaw a Barat (2024)
 36

Terima kasih