AI-Portfolio-Insights-and-the-Future-of-Risk-Management

AI Portfolio Insights
and the Future of Risk

Management
June 2024
© 2024 MSCI Inc. All rights reserved. Please refer to the disclaimer at the end of this document.
AI PORTFOLIO INSIGHTS AND THE FUTURE OF RISK MANAGEMENT |
MONTH YEAR
Andrew DeMond
Managing Director, MSCI Research
Manuel Rueda
Executive Director, MSCI Research
Greg Recine
Vice President, MSCI Research
Samuel López
Senior Associate, MSCI Research
Vicente Albíter
Senior Associate, MSCI Research
Will Baker
Zach Tokura
The authors would like to thank Mayank Gupta, Zsolt Nika, Gabriel Cardoso, Attila Agod, Tamas
Szarvas and Peter Shepard for their contributions to this work.
MSCI.COM | PAGE 2 OF 13
MONTH YEAR
Executive summary
The role of risk management for institutional investors is evolving. Risk leaders are looking to
broaden their teams’ focus beyond traditional risk measurement and increase their influence with
investment teams.
To support this transformation, MSCI is launching its first solution powered by generative AI, MSCI AI
Portfolio Insights. It enables risk leaders to scale up their impact with automated analysis that speeds
up their work and enhances the value of their risk data for investment decision-making.
In this paper we introduce AI Portfolio Insights, review the underlying methodology and describe
MSCI’s approach for using AI-powered tools reliably and safely.
MONTH YEAR
Introduction
Risk officers face the daily problem of distilling analytical reports into a set of prioritized, explainable
and actionable insights. This problem is growing more acute as risk leaders seek to move beyond
reporting and compliance and become more influential in their firms’ investment-decision process.
Yet most teams rely on labor-intensive practices for extracting insights from their risk systems,
delaying their contributions and reducing their impact with investment teams.
MSCI AI Portfolio Insights gives investment professionals a head start on their day by highlighting
what’s important and why across a multi-portfolio investment program. It provides a dynamic front
page to the analytics generated by MSCI’s models, connecting portfolio risk numbers to explanatory
market and issuer news. The MSCI AI Portfolio Insights agent allows users to then dive deeper into
portfolio reports in seconds by answering their plain-language questions, replacing hours to days of
tedious data fetching and emails.
Several new technologies enable these benefits: large-language models (LLMs), proprietary data-
curation algorithms and, foundationally, the cloud-based MSCI AI Portfolio Insights results
warehouse. To meet the high standard for accuracy set by risk professionals, MSCI AI Portfolio
Insights connects these components in a system designed to provide reliable results and safeguard
private data.
Emerging trends in risk management at institutional investors

In recent client engagements involving more than a dozen global risk leaders,1 we identified three
key emerging themes impacting their teams:
o Risk leaders seek to evolve their function beyond compliance. There was broad ambition
among these leaders to expand their focus and support their investment teams in a risk-
advisory capacity to facilitate a proactive integration of risk analytics into the investment
process.
o Risk teams need to speed up risk analysis to support investment teams more effectively in
decision-making. Getting to risk data efficiently was a consistent pain point.
o Sophisticated analysts increasingly need to translate highly quantitative insights (e.g.,
factor risk decomposition) into accessible language for a broad audience. There was
consistent interest in how AI and advanced visualization tools could help bridge this gap.
In summary, the core takeaway from the client engagement is that risk functions are experiencing
some level of transformation, and this evolution will place risk management in an increasingly
pivotal role supporting the construction and maintenance of more-resilient portfolios. Risk teams are
seeking new approaches and tools to meet these expectations.
1We conducted 14 client meetings, speaking with more than 40 risk professionals across the Americas, EMEA and APAC, including
CROs and investment-risk leaders and their respective teams.
MONTH YEAR
MSCI AI Portfolio Insights

Solution overview
MSCI AI Portfolio Insights aims to deliver insights to risk teams and create efficiencies at
institutional investors by helping identify and analyze the most salient information in risk reports
before the working day starts. It merges narrative text with modern dashboards to enhance
communication and clarity. Investors can use MSCI AI Portfolio Insights’ interactive capabilities to
drill further into changes in their portfolios without the need for data extraction or coding. These
tools aim to empower risk-management teams at asset managers, hedge funds and asset owners to
drive collaboration with their clients, both internal and external, and to increase the influence of the
risk function in investment decision-making.
Essential components
The solution aims to add significant automation to two key aspects of the risk-management
process: daily monitoring and ad-hoc investigation. First, it helps analysts focus on important
changes in risk across their portfolios at the beginning of each day. To support this process, MSCI AI
Portfolio Insights creates a narrative summary that helps explain the key drivers of those changes.
Exhibit 1: AI Portfolio Insights delivers a headline summarizing risk changes every day
This summarization feature relies on a rules-based data-curation algorithm to identify the most
important portfolios, factors and issuers each day based on changes in tracking error, with an
expanded set of monitorable metrics to be enabled in future releases.
MONTH YEAR
Exhibit 2: Portfolios are prioritized based on changes in risk relative to both their past behavior and
user-defined peer portfolios
To help quickly identify the reasons for these changes in risk, users can dig deeper through more-
granular summaries across multiple dimensions (as shown in exhibit 3 below). For each portfolio,
users can look at more detailed information in the “Portfolio Summary,” “Issuer Summary” and “Risk
Decomposition” sections of the front page, which help identify the main contributors to risk in a
portfolio and how sentiment2 for top portfolio constituents has changed over time.
2 See the methodology section for the details of issuer-sentiment scoring.
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Exhibit 3: Detailed summaries focused on top portfolios, issuers and risk drivers break down the
high-level summary
The second component of the solution is designed to support users in executing ad hoc analysis
more efficiently. While the AI-generated summaries and figures are designed to answer many
standard questions, for more bespoke queries we’ve integrated an AI agent with a natural-language
interface that helps risk teams get the answers they need quickly.
An important illustration of this benefit is the AI agent’s ability to answer questions that require
analysis across multiple portfolios — for example, looking for low-risk portfolios, the client might ask
“Show me all the portfolios with negative active beta factor exposure.” The agent handles the tasks
of data fetching, reaggregation and analysis instead of the client, giving the client the answer in a
few seconds instead of requiring an hour of work.
MONTH YEAR
Exhibit 4: Get answers about portfolio analytics from the AI Portfolio Insights agent
ive deeper with interactive AI

analysis agent to transform your data into insights that
drive further value into your investment process
Can you show me all portfolios hat has been momentum s ris
with a negative active beta factor contribution to this portfolio over
e posure the last month
hat news about issuer may ow has the stoc price of

have impacted its stoc return changed relative to its weight in
over the last wee my portfolio over the last month
Can you tell me what stoc to buy

to improve the performance of ho won the Super owl
my portfolio in the future
1The AI agent understands queries using the language of risk professionals and facilitates follow-on
analysis of portfolios, factors and issuers. It is specialized for this task, so questions outside the
scope of risk management are not supported.
The goal with enabling this type of automation is to democratize and speed up access to risk
analytics. Through this simplified user experience, risk teams will be well positioned to support their
investment teams in a more expansive advisory capacity.
Methodology
Insight, reliability and safety
Risk officers and portfolio managers require accurate, timely information delivered with industry-
standard data safety and privacy. LLMs, the key advancement that enables modern AI functionality,
have the well-known potential to generate plausible but factually incorrect outputs, or
“hallucinations.” Moreover, they generally lack specialized domain knowledge. Thus, the key design
goals for the MSCI AI Portfolio Insights system were threefold: enable rapid understanding of the
most important changes in portfolio risk every day, minimize inaccuracies and protect client data.
Analytical foundations
MSCI AI Portfolio Insights is built on MSCI’s portfolio-risk analytics, covering the U.S. and global
equity-factor models.3 The automated system draws from the cloud-based data warehouse of client
reports that powers MSCI Insights dashboards, ensuring consistency of results across multiple
views of the data. Issuer news stories are sourced from approximately 20 global business
3AI Portfolio Insights currently covers portfolios that are at least 85% equity (i.e. unit delta positions) by weight and covered with
equity factor models.
MONTH YEAR
publications via an aggregated news feed.4 We process the news to identify mentioned issuers,
remove irrelevant stories and assess the sentiment (positive, neutral or negative) for each company
and story using an LLM-based process.5
Exhibit 5: Rules-based algorithms monitor portfolios for unexpected changes in risk analytics
MSCI 2AI Portfolio Insights analyzes time series of portfolio analytics for unusual and important
changes in risk metrics. The resulting datapoints are prioritized every day and combined with
explanatory information from risk models and news to create portfolio summaries.
In the context of risk management, we define high-priority portfolios and risk statistics as being both
novel and important and use quantitative metrics and a rules-based algorithm to identify the most
salient information on a given day. This approach allows us to provide useful information in a variety
of market conditions: On big market days MSCI AI Portfolio Insights focuses on the portfolios that
stand out from the pack even when everything looks like an outlier, while on average market days it
finds anything unusual. If nothing stands out, MSCI AI Portfolio Insights says so and doesn’t mince
words.
Central to this approach is the concept of a portfolio group, or a set of comparable portfolios that
are monitored together. Portfolio groups are defined by the user. They would normally share the
same risk model and target comparable levels of active risk. The tool identifies portfolios as notable
by scoring them based on risk levels compared to their recent past6 and by comparison of day-over-
day risk changes to other portfolios in their group cross-sectionally. We rank portfolios based on a
combination of these time-series and cross-sectional scores7 after thresholding the scores to filter
out unusual but inconsequential moves.
The key facts explaining the changes in risk in notable portfolios are identified via risk
decomposition into changes in holdings, exposures, volatilities and correlations. We can
algorithmically extract common themes affecting multiple portfolios in the group, for example a
4The sources have been selected to maximize global issuer coverage and include reputable publishers such as Reuters and the
Economic Times, as well as several press-release distributors (PR Newswire, Business Wire, etc.).
5
The specific model in use at the time of writing is GPT-4 from OpenAI accessed via an enterprise endpoint in Microsoft Azure.
Issuer-sentiment scores are defined by scoring positive, neutral and negative stories as +1, 0 and -1 and summing over all scores for
an issuer on a given day.
|(𝑥𝑖 −𝑥̂𝑖 )|
6 Mathematically we define outliers in any statistic 𝑥𝑖 as large deviations from expectations measured by a 𝑧-score: 𝑧 = ,
𝜎̂𝑖
where 𝜎̂𝑖 is the standard deviation and 𝑥̂𝑖 is the expected value of 𝑥𝑖 . 𝑥̂𝑖 is computed with a moving average or trend projection.
7 We define the rank 𝑅𝑛 of portfolio 𝑛 based on a weighted average of its 1-day tracking error change cross-sectional 𝑧 score 𝑧𝑋𝑆 and
the time-series 𝑧 score of the tracking error 𝑧𝑇𝐸 , i.e. 𝑅𝑛 = |𝑤𝑇𝐸 𝑧𝑇𝐸 + 𝑤𝑋𝑆 𝑧𝑋𝑆 |. The rank 𝑅𝑛 is further normalized for display purposes.
MONTH YEAR
specific issuer or factor, and highlight them as separate facts for summarization. The algorithm
prioritizes relevant facts based on their impact and overall prevalence among portfolios in the group.
When available and relevant, the system adds issuer news summaries to the information set. We
then pass the final collection of information to a series of LLMs prompted to create both multi- and
single-portfolio narratives containing the highlighted facts. We have organized the LLMs to
safeguard against incoherent statements and provide fluent, stylistically appropriate accounts of the
key drivers of portfolio risk.
Agent
The MSCI AI Portfolio Insights agent is a task doer8 — assign it a task and get a result faster than
previously possible. With the same design goals in mind for the agent as the summarizer — i.e., rapid
insight, minimal errors and data safety — we’ve invested significant engineering into producing an AI
system that meets the needs of risk professionals.
Exhibit 6: The agent uses context to answer questions via a multistep process
User Question
Named Entity Matching

“the portfolio”, “last month”
Data Manager
Portfolio, Asset, Model, etc.
Generate Analysis Code

BI via Python
Run code and validate
Format response for user
AI agent Response
3The AI agent answers user questions via a multistep process. After adding relevant context, the
agent assembles the necessary portfolio data and generates the code required to produce a useful
response.
8 Note that the agent currently does not support interactivity – from one question to the next it does not retain any memory so re-
typing or augmenting questions is required.
MONTH YEAR
Rapid analysis of a complicated portfolio is challenging and, as a monolithic task, beyond the
capabilities of current LLMs. By segmenting tasks into several steps — such as question
categorization, dataset selection, data fetching and analysis — we break down complex problems
into simpler tasks (as shown in exhibit 6). This approach reduces the likelihood of hallucinations by
the LLM, enhancing the accuracy and reliability of the responses. Many steps taken by the agent
focus on adding context, including specific names, dates and relevant datasets required to answer
the question.
Natural questions li e “what is ris iest name in my portfolio today ” are imprecise, but using
contextual clues from the page the agent can replace “my portfolio” with a specific portfolio name
and replace “today” with the highlighted analysis date. Also, unlike nonspecialist models, MSCI AI
Portfolio Insights knows what “riskiest” means. Thus the analysis is aligned with standard reporting
conventions and industry jargon. To support this workflow we have created detailed response
guidelines to minimize the risk of hallucinations and increase the accuracy and usefulness of the
LLM’s responses. These guidelines are regularly updated and refined to support new analysis and
report types. If the agent can’t or shouldn’t answer a question, such as if as ed for off-topic results
or investment advice, it will decline to respond.
For data safety, we don’t allow LLMs to access client data directly. Instead, a specialized LLM writes
code that is executed in a privileged environment to fetch and analyze client data, ensuring that the
code and results are auditable. This transparency helps maintain the integrity and reliability of the
analysis. We don’t train any LLM or deep-learning model on client data, and all client data is
segregated into separate cloud domains to preclude any cross-leakage of information.9
Validation
MSCI’s approach to model testing applies equally to the three pillars of MSCI AI Portfolio Insights —
data curation, summarization and the interactive agent. Each undergoes continuous model
validation and ongoing quality improvement. We evaluate the data-curation algorithm using a set of
quality metrics that correlate with interesting and engaging content, such as the proportion of events
with associated news, comparison against human-labeled datasets, and measures of
repetitiousness such as autocorrelation of 𝑧-scores. Human testers read summaries and score them
for groundedness (lack of falsehoods), coherence (no conflicting statements), relevance (accuracy
regarding what happened and why) and fluency (natural text). We measure the performance of the
agent against a battery of validation questions that encompass a range of tasks, from basic data
fetching to complex analyses generalized from interactions with testers. The validation framework
includes automatic evaluation with humans in the loop to align the results with client expectations.
Conclusion
The future of risk is being shaped by the demand for faster and more accessible analytics. MSCI AI
Portfolio Insights is a key innovation designed to help risk leaders at institutional investors meet
these demands. By leveraging generative-AI technology, it introduces more automation into risk
management, speeding up the workday and improving the value of risk data for investment decision-
making.
9 We do maintain and analyze segregated, client-specific logs of agent interactions for quality assurance.
MONTH YEAR
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AI Portfolio Insights

and the Future of Risk

Emerging trends in risk management at institutional investors

MSCI AI Portfolio Insights

2 See the methodology section for the details of issuer-sentiment scoring.

ive deeper with interactive AI

hat news about issuer may ow has the stoc price of

Can you tell me what stoc to buy

Named Entity Matching

Generate Analysis Code

Run code and validate

Format response for user

AMERICAS About MSCI

Notice and disclaimer

© 2023 MSCI Inc. All rights reserved.

© 2024 MSCI Inc. All rights reserved.

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