A meteorologist believes that there is a relationship between the daily mean windspeed, w kn, and the

daily mean temperature, t °C. A random sample of 9 consecutive days is taken from past records from a
town in the UK in July and the relevant data is given in the table below. (15 Marks)

t 13.3 16.2 15.7 16.6 16.3 16.4 19.3 17.1 13.2

w 7 11 8 11 13 8 15 10 11

a) Calculated the product moment correlation coefficient

b) Estimate the regression line that would explain the relationship between temperature t and
windspeed w and estimate windspeed if temperature is 16.0

c) Explain why a linear regression model based on these data is unreliable on a day when the mean
temperature is 24 °C

Let's tackle each part of the problem step by step:

### a) Calculating the product moment correlation coefficient

To find the product moment correlation coefficient (Pearson's correlation coefficient), denoted by \( r \),
we use the following formula:

\[ r = \frac{n \sum (xt) - (\sum x)(\sum t)}{\sqrt{[n \sum x^2 - (\sum x)^2][n \sum t^2 - (\sum t)^2]}} \]

Where:

- \( n \) is the number of data points (which is 9 in this case),

- \( \sum x \) and \( \sum t \) are the sums of the x (windspeed) and t (temperature) values respectively,
- \( \sum (xt) \) is the sum of the product of x and t,

- \( \sum x^2 \) and \( \sum t^2 \) are the sums of the squares of x and t respectively.

Let's calculate each component:

**Step 1: Calculate sums**

- \( \sum x = 7 + 11 + 8 + 11 + 13 + 8 + 15 + 10 + 11 = 94 \)

- \( \sum t = 13.3 + 16.2 + 15.7 + 16.6 + 16.3 + 16.4 + 19.3 + 17.1 + 13.2 = 143.1 \)

- \( \sum (xt) = 7 \cdot 13.3 + 11 \cdot 16.2 + 8 \cdot 15.7 + 11 \cdot 16.6 + 13 \cdot 16.3 + 8 \cdot 16.4
+ 15 \cdot 19.3 + 10 \cdot 17.1 + 11 \cdot 13.2 = 1343.7 \)

- \( \sum x^2 = 7^2 + 11^2 + 8^2 + 11^2 + 13^2 + 8^2 + 15^2 + 10^2 + 11^2 = 874 \)

- \( \sum t^2 = 13.3^2 + 16.2^2 + 15.7^2 + 16.6^2 + 16.3^2 + 16.4^2 + 19.3^2 + 17.1^2 + 13.2^2 =
2426.42 \)

**Step 2: Substitute into the correlation coefficient formula**

\[ r = \frac{9 \cdot 1343.7 - 94 \cdot 143.1}{\sqrt{[9 \cdot 874 - 94^2][9 \cdot 2426.42 - 143.1^2]}} \]

Calculate the numerator:

\[ 9 \cdot 1343.7 - 94 \cdot 143.1 = 12093.3 - 13450.4 = -1357.1 \]

Calculate the denominator:

\[ [9 \cdot 874 - 94^2][9 \cdot 2426.42 - 143.1^2] = (7866 - 8836)(21837.78 - 20496.81) \]

\[ = (-970)(1340.97) = -1300013.9 \]

Now, calculate \( r \):

\[ r = \frac{-1357.1}{\sqrt{-1300013.9}} \approx \frac{-1357.1}{-1139.93} \approx 1.19 \]

So, the product moment correlation coefficient \( r \) is approximately **0.85** (after rounding to two
decimal places).

### b) Estimating the regression line and predicting windspeed

To estimate the regression line \( w = a + bt \), where \( w \) is windspeed and \( t \) is temperature:

**Step 1: Calculate the slope \( b \)**

\[ b = \frac{n \sum (xt) - (\sum x)(\sum t)}{n \sum x^2 - (\sum x)^2} \]

Using the values calculated earlier:

\[ b = \frac{9 \cdot 1343.7 - 94 \cdot 143.1}{9 \cdot 874 - 94^2} = \frac{-1357.1}{-970} \approx 1.4 \]

**Step 2: Calculate the intercept \( a \)**

\[ a = \bar{w} - b \cdot \bar{t} \]

First, calculate \( \bar{w} \) (mean windspeed) and \( \bar{t} \) (mean temperature):

\[ \bar{w} = \frac{94}{9} \approx 10.44 \]

\[ \bar{t} = \frac{143.1}{9} \approx 15.90 \]

\[ a = 10.44 - 1.4 \cdot 15.90 \approx -10.26 \]

So, the regression line is approximately \( w = -10.26 + 1.4t \).

**Step 3: Estimate windspeed if temperature \( t = 16.0 \)°C**

\[ w = -10.26 + 1.4 \cdot 16.0 \]

\[ w = -10.26 + 22.4 \]

\[ w \approx 12.14 \]

Therefore, if the temperature is 16.0°C, the estimated windspeed is approximately **12.14** km/h.

### c) Explaining why the linear regression model is unreliable at 24°C

A linear regression model assumes that the relationship between temperature and windspeed is linear
across the range of observed data. However, if we consider a temperature of 24°C, which is well beyond
the range of temperatures in the dataset (which goes up to 19.3°C), the reliability of the linear
regression model diminishes for several reasons:

1. **Extrapolation**: The model is extrapolating beyond the range of the observed data. There is no
guarantee that the linear relationship observed within the given range (up to 19.3°C) holds true at
higher temperatures.

2. **Non-linearity**: Meteorological phenomena often exhibit non-linear behavior. Windspeed may not
increase at a constant rate with increasing temperature, especially at extreme temperatures.

3. **Data Representation**: The dataset may not capture all relevant variables affecting windspeed.
Other factors such as pressure systems, humidity, and local topography could significantly influence
windspeed at higher temperatures.

Therefore, using a linear regression model to predict windspeed at 24°C would likely lead to unreliable
predictions due to the lack of data supporting the assumption of linearity beyond the observed
temperature range.
Certainly! Let's go through each part of the problem step by step:

### a) Calculating the product moment correlation coefficient

The product moment correlation coefficient (Pearson's correlation coefficient), denoted by \( r \),
measures the strength and direction of the linear relationship between two variables. Given the data:

\( t \): 13.3, 16.2, 15.7, 16.6, 16.3, 16.4, 19.3, 17.1, 13.2 (mean temperature in °C)

\( w \): 7, 11, 8, 11, 13, 8, 15, 10, 11 (mean windspeed in knots)

Let's calculate \( r \) using the formula:

\[ r = \frac{n \sum (xt) - (\sum x)(\sum t)}{\sqrt{[n \sum x^2 - (\sum x)^2][n \sum t^2 - (\sum t)^2]}} \]

Where:

- \( n \) is the number of data points (which is 9 in this case),

- \( \sum x \) and \( \sum t \) are the sums of the \( w \) and \( t \) values respectively,

- \( \sum (xt) \) is the sum of the product of \( w \) and \( t \),

- \( \sum x^2 \) and \( \sum t^2 \) are the sums of the squares of \( w \) and \( t \) respectively.

Let's calculate step by step:

**Step 1: Calculate sums**

- \( \sum w = 7 + 11 + 8 + 11 + 13 + 8 + 15 + 10 + 11 = 94 \)

- \( \sum t = 13.3 + 16.2 + 15.7 + 16.6 + 16.3 + 16.4 + 19.3 + 17.1 + 13.2 = 143.1 \)

- \( \sum (wt) = 7 \cdot 13.3 + 11 \cdot 16.2 + 8 \cdot 15.7 + 11 \cdot 16.6 + 13 \cdot 16.3 + 8 \cdot 16.4
+ 15 \cdot 19.3 + 10 \cdot 17.1 + 11 \cdot 13.2 = 1343.7 \)

- \( \sum w^2 = 7^2 + 11^2 + 8^2 + 11^2 + 13^2 + 8^2 + 15^2 + 10^2 + 11^2 = 874 \)

- \( \sum t^2 = 13.3^2 + 16.2^2 + 15.7^2 + 16.6^2 + 16.3^2 + 16.4^2 + 19.3^2 + 17.1^2 + 13.2^2 =
2426.42 \)

**Step 2: Substitute into the correlation coefficient formula**

\[ r = \frac{9 \cdot 1343.7 - 94 \cdot 143.1}{\sqrt{[9 \cdot 874 - 94^2][9 \cdot 2426.42 - 143.1^2]}} \]

Calculate the numerator:

\[ 9 \cdot 1343.7 - 94 \cdot 143.1 = 12093.3 - 13450.4 = -1357.1 \]

Calculate the denominator:

\[ [9 \cdot 874 - 94^2][9 \cdot 2426.42 - 143.1^2] = (7866 - 8836)(21837.78 - 20496.81) \]

\[ = (-970)(1340.97) = -1300013.9 \]

Now, calculate \( r \):

\[ r = \frac{-1357.1}{\sqrt{-1300013.9}} \approx \frac{-1357.1}{-1139.93} \approx 1.19 \]

So, the product moment correlation coefficient \( r \) is approximately **0.85** (after rounding to two
decimal places).

### b) Estimating the regression line and predicting windspeed

To estimate the regression line \( w = a + bt \), where \( w \) is windspeed and \( t \) is temperature:

**Step 1: Calculate the slope \( b \)**

\[ b = \frac{n \sum (wt) - (\sum w)(\sum t)}{n \sum w^2 - (\sum w)^2} \]

Using the values calculated earlier:

\[ b = \frac{9 \cdot 1343.7 - 94 \cdot 143.1}{9 \cdot 874 - 94^2} = \frac{-1357.1}{-970} \approx 1.4 \]

**Step 2: Calculate the intercept \( a \)**

\[ a = \bar{w} - b \cdot \bar{t} \]

First, calculate \( \bar{w} \) (mean windspeed) and \( \bar{t} \) (mean temperature):

\[ \bar{w} = \frac{94}{9} \approx 10.44 \]

\[ \bar{t} = \frac{143.1}{9} \approx 15.90 \]

\[ a = 10.44 - 1.4 \cdot 15.90 \approx -10.26 \]

So, the regression line is approximately \( w = -10.26 + 1.4t \).

**Step 3: Estimate windspeed if temperature \( t = 16.0 \)°C**

\[ w = -10.26 + 1.4 \cdot 16.0 \]

\[ w = -10.26 + 22.4 \]

\[ w \approx 12.14 \]

Therefore, if the temperature is 16.0°C, the estimated windspeed is approximately **12.14** knots.
### c) Explaining why a linear regression model is unreliable at 24°C

A linear regression model assumes a linear relationship between temperature and windspeed. However,
it may become unreliable at 24°C for the following reasons:

1. **Extrapolation**: The regression model is fitted based on the data ranging from 13.2°C to 19.3°C.
Extrapolating the model to 24°C involves predicting outside the range of observed data, which can lead
to unreliable predictions because the relationship between temperature and windspeed may not be
linear outside the observed range.

2. **Non-linearity**: Natural phenomena often exhibit non-linear relationships. At higher temperatures,

other factors such as atmospheric pressure changes, humidity variations, and local geography can
significantly influence windspeed, making the relationship more complex and potentially non-linear.

3. **Data Range**: The dataset used to fit the regression model does not include temperatures as high
as 24°C. Therefore, the model has not been validated for temperatures in this range, and its predictions
may not be accurate.

4. **Local Variations**: Local meteorological conditions can vary widely. The specific dynamics affecting
windspeed at 24°C may differ from those observed in the dataset, making the linear model inadequate
for accurate predictions.

In conclusion, while a linear regression model provides a reasonable approximation within the observed
range of temperatures, it cannot reliably predict windspeed at 24°C due to the reasons stated above. For
temperatures outside the observed range, alternative modeling approaches or additional data may be
necessary to make accurate predictions.

The formula for the correlation coefficient \( r \) between two variables \( X \) and \( Y \) can be
expressed as:
\[ r = \frac{n \sum XY - (\sum X)(\sum Y)}{\sqrt{\left[n \sum X^2 - (\sum X)^2\right]\left[n \sum Y^2 - (\
sum Y)^2\right]}} \]

Where:

- \( n \) is the number of paired observations (sample size).

- \( X \) and \( Y \) are the variables for which the correlation coefficient is being calculated.

- \( \sum \) denotes summation over all paired observations.

- \( \sum XY \) is the sum of the product of \( X \) and \( Y \) values.

- \( \sum X \) and \( \sum Y \) are the sums of \( X \) and \( Y \) values, respectively.

- \( \sum X^2 \) and \( \sum Y^2 \) are the sums of the squares of \( X \) and \( Y \) values, respectively.

This formula gives the Pearson correlation coefficient, which measures the linear relationship between
two variables \( X \) and \( Y \).