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Antique Stock Broking Ltd UNSP@IN AMP Sector Update FMCG - Rural recovery happening; foo
Antique Stock Broking Ltd UNSP@IN AMP Sector Update FMCG - Rural recovery happening; foo
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL
12 June 2023
ANTIQUE’S MORNING PRESENTATION
Market Snapshot
FROM THE RESEARCH DESK
Global Indices Closing % Chg % YTD
SECTOR UPDATE Dow Jones 33,877 0.1 2.2
FMCG NASDAQ 13,259 0.2 26.7
Foray into new areas of specialization to drive growth Nikkei 32,265 2.0 23.6
Hang Seng 19,390 0.5 (2.0)
Shanghai Composite 3,231 0.6 4.6
Bulk Deals
Security Name Client Name Buy/Sell Qty Price Value (mn)
KOTAKBANK Canada Pension Plan Investment Board Sell 3,30,00,000 1,855.64 61236
CMS Info Systems Limited Sion Investment Holdings Pte. Limited Sell 21240000 300.23 6377
CMS Info Systems Limited SBI Mutual Fund Buy 6713513 300.00 2014
CMS Info Systems Limited Norges Bank On Account Of The Government Pension Fund Global Buy 2500000 300.00 750
Indian Energy Exc Ltd Harsh Anand Jain Buy 5295000 124.82 661
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 12 June 2023 | 3
Source: Bloomberg
Sensex FII Provisional Flows (INR bn) DII Provisional Flows (INR bn)
290 155
65000
60000 230 130
55000 105 c
170
50000 80
110 55
45000
40000 50 30
35000 (10) 5
30000 (20)
(70)
25000 (45)
(130) (70)
Jun-19 Jun-20 Jun-21 Jun-22 Jun-23
Jun-19 Jun-20 Jun-21 Jun-22 Jun-23 Jun-19 Jun-20 Jun-21 Jun-22 Jun-23
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Oct-22
Dec-21
Feb-22
Jun-22
Dec-22
Feb-23
Aug-21
Apr-22
Aug-22
Apr-23
20 9
13-Feb
17-Feb
21-Feb
25-Feb
1-Jun
5-Jun
9-Jun
1-Mar
5-Mar
9-Mar
13-Mar
17-Mar
21-Mar
25-Mar
29-Mar
4-May
8-May
12-May
16-May
20-May
24-May
28-May
2-Apr
6-Apr
10-Apr
14-Apr
18-Apr
22-Apr
26-Apr
30-Apr
0
WPI Inflation (%) 10 Yr Yield (%) 05-Jun 06-Jun 07-Jun 08-Jun 09-Jun
Source: Bloomberg
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 12 June 2023 | 4
SECTOR UPDATE
FMCG
Rural recovery happening; foods moderating
From our latest on-ground interactions, we believe that for the month of
May'23: a) Rural markets are witnessing recovery with moderation in
inflation; for select companies rural growth was ahead of urban markets, b)
Volume growth is picking up across categories with increase in promotional
activities and stabilization/ reduction of product prices, c) Food category
Abhijeet Kundu
+91 22 6911 3430
continues to witness moderation (especially Britannia) due to extreme heat
abhijeet.kundu@antiquelimited.com waves, while beverages (for Dabur) is witnessing strong demand, d) Soaps,
detergents, summer portfolio continue to do better; personal products yet to
Dhiraj Mistry witness material recovery, e) Importantly, cigarettes (on a high base of last
+91 22 6911 3434 year) continue to witness strong off-take growth in early double digits. f)
dhiraj.mistry@antiquelimited.com For Nestle, dairy business was impacted due to unrest in North-East state
Priyanka Trivedi (Manipur), while other categories continue to report strong performance
+91 22 6911 3435 (including nutrition).
priyanka.trivedi@antiquelimited.com We believe Nestle continues to witness strong double digit growth in off-
take, followed by ITC, Jyothy Labs, and GCPL in early double digits. Dabur's
performance is improving with rural recovery, while HUL's value growth
moderated due to drop in product prices. At current levels factoring valuations
HUL, ITC, and Jyothy Labs are our preferred BUYs in the sector.
Dabur's performance improves; Britannia's demand moderating; Nestle,
ITC remain strong
Key highlights of our interactions:
a) HUL: We believe HUL's distributors just achieved their monthly target and off-take growth
for May'23 of around 8%-10%, largely driven by strong performance in detergents.
Food performance was muted. Horlicks' performance just met the company's expectation
for the month.
b) Dabur: We expect Dabur's off-take growth to be in early double digits during the
month of May'23. Recovery was visible in rural markets and we expect growth to be
higher than in urban markets. The traction in rural markets continues to improve. With the
rise in summer intensity, growth in summer portfolio (Glucose-D) and beverages & juices
were strong. The inferior mix (higher growth in food & beverages) continues to impact
profitability.
c) GCPL: During the month, we believe GCPL achieved its target and is expected to grow
in double digits in both volume and value. The performance is expected to be driven by
traction in household insecticides and hair color. Soaps performance is steady, largely
led by volume on the back of an increase in promotions and a reduction in prices.
d) Jyothy Labs: Distributors achieved their monthly target and we expect off-take growth
of 13%-15% driven by dish wash and fabric wash. Soaps performance is improving
sequentially. The company launched a variant of Margo soaps. In fabric care, the company
is working on reviving growth in Henko detergents.
e) ITC: Cigarette performance remains strong with an expected growth in off-take in early
double digits. Food performance was stable driven by stable growth in Atta, Yippie, and
Sunfeast (biscuits). The performance was marginally impacted due to shut down of schools
on account of the extreme summer. ITC has increased promotional activities for biscuits
and the initial response is good.
f) Nestle: The expected off-take growth in May at 14%-15% should be driven by culinary,
nutrition, and chocolates. Chocolate momentum picked up compared to last month and
continues to grow in strong double digits. Nutrition portfolio momentum is improving and
is expected to register double-digit growth in off-take. While the culinary business continues
to grow in its mid-teens. Dairy business was impacted in North-East states due to unrest in
Manipur.
g) Britannia: As per our understanding, distributors missed their monthly targets. Off-take
growth is expected at low single digits, impacted by the closure of schools and extreme
heat during the month (especially in biscuits and cakes).
Disclaimer
The views and data trend mentioned in the report is purely based on channel checks across FMCG dealers/distributors and are directional trends.
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 12 June 2023 | 5
Exhibit 1: Restructuring carried out to unlock the potential of chlor-alkali and its derivatives
Business Overview
Leadership in the chlor-alkali segment
The Company’s Chlor-Alkali business was commissioned in 2009, and grew the caustic soda
installed capacity from 167 KTPA in FY15 to 400 KTPA in FY23. The company is now among
the top 5 players in India’s chlor-alkali industry, with a market share of ~10%. Considering
power is an important feedstock in the manufacture of caustic soda, the company also has a
132 MW captive power plant, which takes care of 100% of its power requirement of chlor
alkali. Further, it is also setting up an 18.34 MW wind-solar hybrid power plant, which is
expected to be commissioned by 1QFY24.
The company’s chlor-alkali product portfolio consists of caustic soda and caustic potash. In
FY17, the company started manufacturing of caustic potash with a capacity of 21 ktpa,
making it the 3rd largest manufacturer in India. The traditional chlor-alkali business contributes
70% to MFL’s overall top-line as of FY23.
During FY23, the company entered into joint venture with ReNew Green (GJS Three) in the
ratio of 26:74, to set-up a grid connected 18.34 wind-solar hybrid project. The estimated
capex cost of which is INR 2.6 bn and is to be funded in a debt:equity ratio of 70:30. During
the year, MFL invested INR 205 mn towards equity contribution of 26%. The commissioning of
this facility will address >5% of the company's power needs and moderate the cost of power
by 25%-30% per unit (as compared to the grid).
With the considerable thrust that the capex provides for foraying into these new segments
and chemistry, the company aims to achieve revenue of INR 50 bn by FY27, with EBITDA
margin profile of 28% (+/-2%). The specialty chemical segment is also expected to contribute
>60% to overall revenue by FY27. Further, 2 kms away from its current facility in Dahej, the
company has purchased 71 hectares of land at a capex of INR 1.5 bn, which will be used
to manufacture further downstream products in Chlorotoluene chemistry, as well as introduce
new chemistries.
Financial Profile
Robust revenue growth aided by realization growth
MFL’s top-line has grown at a CAGR of 53% from FY20–23, largely led by higher realization
growth in caustic soda, caustic potash, H2O2, and CMS. In FY23, the company’s top-line
grew 41% YoY, with volume/ realization up by 9%/ 32% YoY. For FY24, the company has
guided for 15%–20% YoY top-line growth resulting from volume growth of its newly launched
products. A precursor to this guidance is an increase in contribution of specialty chemical
segment from 14% in FY20 to 30% in FY23.
Exhibit 10: Realization led revenue growth Exhibit 11: Increasing contribution of specialty chemical
25,000 INR in mn 120%
100%
14%
20,000
25%
26%
30%
80%
15,000
60%
10,000 40%
20%
86%
74%
75%
70%
5,000
15,509
21,884
6,105
8,286
0%
FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
-
FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 Chlor Alkali Specialty Chemical
Source: Company, Antique Source: Company, Antique
16%
33% 16%
6,000 3,000
12%
14%
32%
31%
1,008
2,528
3,533
1,941
2,613
5,095
6,889
1,000 500 2%
- 31% - 0%
FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
EBITDA (LHS) EBITDA Margin (RHS) PAT (LHS) PAT Margin (RHS)
Source: Company, Antique Source: Company, Antique
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 12 June 2023 | 15
Exhibit 14: D/E on an improving trend Exhibit 15: ATO improving despite continuous capex
12,000 INR in mn
1.4
x 1.6 5,000 INR in mn x 1.8
1.5
1.4
4,500
1.4
1.4 1.6
10,000
4,000 1.4
1.2
1.1
3,500
0.9
3,000
1.0
6,000 0.8 2,500
0.8
0.6 2,000
4,000 0.6
1,500
0.4
1,000 0.4
5,262
5,383
9,894
8,761
2,000
3,692
1,968
4,563
4,165
0.2 0.2
500
- - - -
FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
Debt (LHS) D/E (RHS) Capex ATO
Source: Company, Antique Source: Company, Antique
Exhibit 16: Strong OCF generation Exhibit 17: Working capital trend
8,000 100% 70 70
63
91%
INR in mn
55
7,000 60 60
80%
88%
48
85%
6,000
56%
50 50
5,000 60%
35
40 40
4,000
3,000 40% 30 30
2,000 20 20
20%
1,000
10 10
- 0%
FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 - -
OCF (LHS) FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
EBITDA (LHS) Inventory Days Receivable Days
Cash Conversation Ratio (RHS) Payable Days Working Capital Cycle
Source: Company, Antique Source: Company, Antique
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 12 June 2023 | 16
Financials
Profit and loss account (INR mn) Cash flow statement (INR mn)
Year ended 31 Mar FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 Year ended 31 Mar FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
Net Revenue 6,105 8,286 15,509 21,884 PBT 1,410 1,609 3,834 5,225
Op. Expenses 4,164 5,673 10,415 14,995 Depreciation & amortization 443 735 859 1,090
EBITDA 1,941 2,613 5,095 6,889 Interest expense 82 311 443 655
Depreciation 443 735 859 1,090 (Inc)/Dec in working capital (38) (56) (1,694) 358
EBIT 1,498 1,878 4,236 5,800 Tax paid (283) (286) (604) (1,075)
Other income 23 22 41 80 Less: Interest/Div. Income Recd. (1) (1) (2) (8)
Interest Exp. 111 291 443 655 Other operating Cash Flow 35 (19) 2 18
Reported PBT 1,410 1,609 3,834 5,225 CF from operating activities 1,647 2,292 2,838 6,262
Tax 290 600 1,306 1,692 Capital expenditure (3,692) (1,968) (4,563) (4,173)
Reported PAT 1,120 1,008 2,528 3,533 Inc/(Dec) in investments 20 (1) 14 (207)
Net Profit 1,120 1,008 2,528 3,533 Add: Interest/Div. Income Recd. 40 1 3 8
Adjusted PAT 1,120 1,008 2,528 3,533 CF from investing activities (3,632) (1,967) (4,546) (4,372)
Adjusted EPS (INR) 27.0 24.3 60.8 85.0 Inc/(Dec) in share capital - - - (609)
Inc/(Dec) in debt 1,263 78 2,433 (542)
Balance sheet (INR mn) Dividend Paid (203) - - (242)
Year ended 31 Mar FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 Others (366) (397) (480) (596)
Share Capital 2,525 2,525 416 416 CF from financing activities 694 (319) 1,952 (1,989)
Reserves & Surplus 3,310 4,317 6,844 10,276 Net cash flow (1,291) 6 244 (100)
Networth 5,835 6,841 7,260 10,691 Opening balance 1,292 1 7 251
Debt 5,262 5,383 9,894 8,761 Closing balance 1 7 251 151
Net deferred Tax liabilities (10) - 918 1,667
Capital Employed 11,087 12,224 18,071 21,120 Growth indicators (%)
Gross Fixed Assets 6,881 14,211 14,687 23,139 Year ended 31 Mar FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
Accumulated Depreciation 2,479 3,188 4,009 5,099 Revenue 35.7 87.2 41.1
Capital work in progress 6,912 1,258 5,893 1,581 EBITDA 34.6 95.0 35.2
Net Fixed Assets 11,313 12,281 16,571 19,622 Adj PAT (10.0) 150.7 39.8
Investments - - - 205 Adj EPS (10.0) 150.7 39.8
Current Assets, Loans & Adv. 1,412 2,206 4,666 4,495
Inventory 484 540 1,541 2,118 Valuation (x)
Debtors 765 1,188 2,563 1,663 Year ended 31 Mar FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
Cash & Bank balance 1 7 251 151 P/E (x) 38.5 42.8 17.1 12.2
Loans & advances and others 162 471 310 563 P/BV (x) 7.4 6.3 5.9 4.0
Current Liabilities & Prov. 1,638 2,263 3,166 3,203 EV/EBITDA (x) 29.0 21.6 11.9 8.6
Liabilities 468 730 881 1,102 EV/Sales (x) 9.2 6.8 3.9 2.7
Provisions 1,170 1,532 2,285 2,101 Dividend Yield (%) - - - 0.5
Net Current Assets (226) (57) 1,500 1,293
Application of Funds 11,087 12,224 18,071 21,120
Financial ratios
Year ended 31 Mar FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
Per share data RoE (%) 19.2 15.9 35.9 39.4
Year ended 31 Mar FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 RoCE (%) 13.7 16.3 28.2 30.0
No. of shares (mn) 42 42 42 42 Asset/T.O (x) 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.1
Diluted no. of shares (mn) 42 42 42 42 Net Debt/Equity (x) 0.9 0.8 1.3 0.8
BVPS (INR) 140.4 164.6 174.7 257.3 EBIT/Interest (x) 13.7 6.5 9.7 9.0
CEPS (INR) 37.6 42.0 81.5 111.2
DPS (INR) - - - 5.0
Margins (%)
Year ended 31 Mar FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
Source: Company, Antique
EBITDA Margin (%) 31.8 31.5 32.9 31.5
EBIT Margin (%) 24.5 22.7 27.3 26.5
PAT Margin (%) 18.3 12.1 16.3 16.1
Source: Company Antique
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 12 June 2023 | 17
Valuation Guide
Company Reco CMP TP Return M. Cap M. Cap Net profit (INR bn) EPS (INR) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) Absolute (%)
(INR) (INR) (%) (INR bn) (USD bn) FY23 FY24 FY25 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY24 FY24 FY24 1m 12m
AGROCHEM & FERTILIZERS
Bayer Cropscience Hold 4,258 4,710 11 191.3 2.3 6.8 7.2 8.5 151.8 160.8 188.4 28.1 26.5 22.6 19.7 18.0 15.4 5.8 24.1 32.7 3 -18
Coromandel Intl. Buy 932 1,360 46 273.9 3.3 20.1 19.6 22.2 68.6 66.8 75.6 13.6 14.0 12.3 8.9 9.2 7.7 2.9 22.5 31.6 -4 1
Dhanuka Agritech Buy 791 1,010 28 36.1 0.4 2.3 2.5 2.9 51.2 55.0 63.0 15.4 14.4 12.6 12.6 10.8 8.7 2.8 21.5 29.0 22 12
PI Industries Buy 3,620 4,320 19 549.2 6.7 12.2 14.1 16.3 80.7 93.1 107.9 44.9 38.9 33.6 33.5 29.0 24.1 6.5 18.0 21.6 6 40
Rallis India Hold 192 180 (6) 37.4 0.5 0.9 1.7 2.3 4.7 8.8 11.8 40.9 21.7 16.3 16.4 10.7 8.3 2.0 9.6 12.7 2 -2
Sharda Cropchem Buy 559 720 29 50.5 0.6 3.4 3.8 4.4 37.9 41.8 48.2 14.8 13.4 11.6 6.9 6.1 4.9 2.0 15.7 20.2 13 -23
Sumitomo Chemical India Buy 406 520 28 202.5 2.5 5.0 5.4 6.5 10.1 10.8 13.0 40.3 37.5 31.3 29.6 26.4 22.0 7.1 20.6 27.8 3 -12
UPL Hold 680 710 4 510.6 6.2 37.2 42.8 53.5 49.6 57.1 71.3 13.7 11.9 9.5 6.4 5.6 4.8 1.7 15.0 15.5 0 -7
AUTO & AUTO ANC.
Apollo Tyres Buy 405 464 14 257.4 3.1 10.8 16.5 19.6 17.1 25.9 30.9 23.8 15.6 13.1 9.1 7.1 5.7 1.8 12.1 13.1 10 102
Ashok Leyland Buy 152 180 18 447.3 5.4 13.0 19.8 25.2 4.4 6.7 8.6 34.5 22.6 17.8 16.2 12.9 10.6 4.8 22.3 23.1 2 11
Bajaj Auto Hold 4,743 4,463 (6) 1,372.6 16.7 56.3 62.8 71.4 198.9 221.7 252.2 23.9 21.4 18.8 20.1 17.6 15.1 24.7 23.9 31.1 5 22
Balkrishna Industries Hold 2,265 2,228 (2) 437.9 5.3 10.3 13.1 17.2 53.5 67.7 89.1 42.4 33.5 25.4 23.9 20.2 16.0 5.3 16.5 15.8 3 3
Ceat Buy 1,941 1,980 2 78.5 1.0 2.2 3.9 5.7 54.2 96.7 141.2 35.8 20.1 13.7 10.1 8.3 6.4 2.1 10.9 11.5 4 99
Eicher Motors Buy 3,581 3,907 9 980.0 11.9 29.1 35.6 43.0 106.3 130.0 157.1 33.7 27.6 22.8 28.2 23.1 19.2 2.9 22.3 25.8 -1 32
Hero MotoCorp Hold 2,899 2,771 (4) 579.4 7.0 29.1 31.4 36.2 145.7 157.2 181.3 19.9 18.4 16.0 13.6 12.1 10.5 3.3 18.3 23.8 11 11
TVS Motors Buy 1,336 1,342 0 634.7 7.7 14.9 18.5 23.5 31.4 38.9 49.4 42.6 34.3 27.0 24.6 20.2 16.2 8.5 27.3 28.0 8 75
Mahindra & Mahindra Buy 1,371 1,456 6 1,704.4 20.7 74.8 86.2 97.1 60.3 69.5 78.3 22.7 19.7 17.5 15.5 13.2 11.5 8.3 18.5 22.3 7 32
Maruti Suzuki India Buy 9,628 11,070 15 2,908.4 35.3 80.5 109.1 133.7 266.5 361.1 442.8 36.1 26.7 21.7 25.7 19.5 16.3 10.6 17.0 21.7 4 21
BUILDING MATERIALS
Apollo Pipes Buy 697 680 (2) 27.4 0.3 0.2 0.8 1.0 6.1 19.2 22.6 114.5 36.3 30.8 40.4 19.2 14.8 5.2 15.3 20.5 12 47
Astral Hold 1,988 1,550 (22) 534.0 6.5 4.6 6.6 8.4 17.0 24.7 31.1 117.1 80.6 64.0 65.2 47.8 38.6 16.3 22.1 27.4 26 61
Cera Sanitaryware Buy 7,887 8,190 4 102.6 1.2 2.1 2.5 3.0 161.0 194.9 234.0 49.0 40.5 33.7 32.8 27.4 22.7 7.6 20.1 26.2 10 93
Finolex Industries Hold 165 190 15 102.1 1.2 2.5 5.1 5.8 4.1 8.2 9.4 40.6 20.0 17.5 30.5 14.2 12.5 1.9 10.0 11.8 -9 8
Greenlam Industries Buy 476 500 5 60.4 0.7 1.3 1.5 2.1 10.1 12.0 16.7 47.0 39.7 28.4 27.3 22.0 14.3 5.5 14.7 12.9 51 56
Kajaria Ceramics Buy 1,261 1,290 2 200.8 2.4 3.5 4.9 6.4 22.0 30.7 40.4 57.3 41.1 31.2 33.6 25.0 19.5 7.7 19.8 24.0 7 33
Prince Pipes and Fittings Buy 648 860 33 71.7 0.9 1.2 2.6 3.2 11.0 23.7 28.8 59.0 27.4 22.5 28.0 16.2 13.4 4.5 17.7 23.3 8 7
Somany Ceramics Buy 658 810 23 27.9 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.7 17.2 30.7 40.3 38.2 21.4 16.3 16.4 11.0 9.1 3.1 15.4 15.2 20 14
Supreme Industries Buy 2,820 3,170 12 358.3 4.3 8.7 10.2 11.5 68.1 80.5 90.5 41.4 35.0 31.2 29.2 24.0 20.9 7.2 21.8 24.8 1 56
CEMENT
ACC Hold 1,837 1,950 6 345.0 4.2 10.5 13.6 18.9 47.1 72.2 100.7 39.0 25.4 18.2 16.2 12.3 9.3 2.3 9.2 12.4 2 -14
Ambuja Cement Buy 456 470 3 904.9 11.0 27.1 28.2 38.4 12.9 11.5 15.6 35.4 39.7 29.2 25.5 18.1 13.9 2.4 7.6 10.2 11 25
Birla Corp Buy 1,168 1,200 3 90.0 1.1 0.3 3.9 6.2 5.3 50.3 80.5 220.9 23.2 14.5 16.4 9.3 7.3 1.4 6.3 7.6 17 36
Dalmia Bharat Buy 2,096 2,500 19 392.9 4.8 6.3 12.6 16.9 72.0 68.4 91.4 29.1 30.7 22.9 17.1 12.2 10.2 2.3 7.8 9.9 1 63
Grasim Industries Buy 1,716 1,920 12 1,129.7 13.7 22.1 18.0 20.7 33.6 27.3 31.4 51.1 62.7 54.7 36.1 41.3 32.9 2.4 3.8 5.3 -2 30
Heidelberg Hold 176 175 (1) 39.9 0.5 1.1 2.3 3.0 4.8 9.9 13.2 36.8 17.7 13.4 14.8 9.1 7.1 2.7 15.4 17.9 2 -3
JK Cement Buy 3,227 3,460 7 249.3 3.0 4.3 7.2 9.6 55.2 92.6 124.0 58.5 34.9 26.0 21.6 15.0 12.2 4.8 14.5 13.4 6 50
JK Lakshmi Cement Buy 719 875 22 84.6 1.0 3.6 5.7 6.9 30.5 48.1 58.5 23.6 14.9 12.3 11.2 8.2 6.7 2.6 19.0 19.4 -8 72
Nuvoco Vistas Hold 348 375 8 124.1 1.5 4.2 2.1 4.2 11.8 5.9 11.6 29.4 59.1 29.9 13.9 9.4 8.0 1.4 2.3 5.2 5 22
Orient Cement Hold 138 140 1 28.2 0.3 1.2 2.5 3.0 6.0 12.2 14.5 23.0 11.3 9.5 8.6 6.3 5.9 1.6 14.6 16.1 7 13
Shree Cements Buy 25,448 27,500 8 918.2 11.1 11.2 21.4 27.0 309.5 591.8 748.4 82.2 43.0 34.0 28.9 19.3 15.6 4.5 10.9 14.7 3 33
Ramco Cement Buy 933 920 (1) 220.4 2.7 3.1 7.2 9.2 13.3 30.7 38.9 70.0 30.4 23.9 22.3 14.0 12.1 2.9 10.0 10.6 21 53
UltraTech Cement Buy 8,153 8,900 9 2,353.7 28.6 50.6 77.3 94.2 175.4 268.5 327.0 46.5 30.4 24.9 22.4 16.3 13.7 3.9 13.5 17.8 6 48
FMCG & RETAIL
Aditya Birla Fashion & Retail Hold 199 215 8 189.0 2.3 -0.4 1.0 2.1 -0.4 1.0 2.2 -525.1 194.2 90.4 13.6 10.8 9.0 5.5 2.9 9.8 0 -23
Asian Paints Buy 3,181 3,500 10 3,050.8 37.0 41.6 51.1 61.0 43.3 53.3 63.6 73.4 59.7 50.0 48.9 40.2 33.7 16.4 29.5 35.0 2 17
Avenue Supermarts Buy 3,632 4,360 20 2,362.2 28.7 25.6 31.1 37.8 39.5 48.0 58.3 92.0 75.6 62.3 64.2 50.8 41.7 12.0 15.9 21.1 -1 -3
Bajaj Consumer Care Buy 186 213 15 26.6 0.3 1.4 1.6 1.9 9.8 11.5 13.3 18.9 16.2 13.9 14.6 10.3 8.1 2.3 16.4 20.0 7 34
Colgate Palmolive Hold 1,597 1,659 4 434.2 5.3 10.6 11.5 12.9 38.9 42.2 47.4 41.0 37.8 33.7 27.5 25.4 22.6 24.8 66.3 105.4 -2 5
Dabur India Hold 550 564 3 974.5 11.8 17.1 18.8 22.2 9.7 10.6 12.5 56.9 51.7 43.8 45.0 40.3 34.0 9.9 20.0 22.9 6 9
Devyani International Buy 181 200 11 217.9 2.6 2.9 2.4 3.8 2.4 2.0 3.2 75.9 91.3 56.8 33.2 27.0 19.9 17.9 21.8 46.8 2 11
Emami Buy 383 487 27 168.6 2.0 7.6 8.0 17.3 18.2 19.5 22.2 21.0 19.6 19.3 16.9 14.4 6.5 32.8 35.0 -2 -9
Godrej Consumer Buy 1,035 1,107 7 1,058.9 12.9 17.5 22.1 25.2 17.1 21.6 24.6 60.6 47.9 42.1 41.1 32.9 27.7 6.7 15.0 19.4 4 38
Hindustan Unilever Buy 2,636 2,931 11 6,194.0 75.2 97.2 111.1 125.2 41.4 47.3 53.3 63.7 55.7 49.5 44.9 39.5 35.0 11.9 21.8 26.1 0 20
ITC Buy 438 492 12 5,449.1 66.1 186.8 214.8 245.4 15.0 17.3 19.7 29.2 25.4 22.2 21.9 19.0 16.5 7.5 30.8 39.5 5 63
Jubilant Foodworks Hold 480 478 (0) 316.4 3.8 3.5 5.4 7.0 5.4 8.2 10.6 89.6 58.4 45.1 27.3 21.9 18.0 12.9 24.1 41.5 3 -9
Jyothy Labs Buy 202 277 37 74.3 0.9 2.3 3.0 3.4 6.3 8.1 9.2 31.9 25.1 21.9 22.6 18.2 15.4 4.4 18.3 22.8 -3 33
Kansai Nerolac Buy 434 506 17 233.7 2.8 4.9 6.5 7.8 9.0 12.1 14.4 48.0 35.8 30.0 28.7 21.4 17.8 4.6 13.5 18.4 4 9
Marico Hold 533 532 (0) 689.5 8.4 12.8 15.1 17.2 9.9 11.7 13.3 53.7 45.4 40.1 37.6 31.2 27.5 15.9 37.3 44.3 -2 8
Nestle Hold 22,073 21,687 (2) 2,128.2 25.8 24.9 29.5 34.9 258.5 305.5 361.5 85.4 72.3 61.1 55.5 47.3 40.4 69.8 107.0 148.3 1 32
Patanjali Foods Buy 1,024 1,405 37 370.7 4.5 8.9 13.7 17.0 24.5 38.0 46.8 41.8 27.0 21.9 29.2 17.8 14.1 3.4 13.2 16.1 10 -6
Restaurant Brands Asia Hold 108 122 14 53.2 0.6 -0.7 -0.8 -0.4 -1.5 -1.5 -0.8 -74.1 -70.6 -128.3 31.2 22.4 16.3 2.9 -4.1 1.7 3 1
Radico Khaitan Hold 1,191 1,163 (2) 159.2 1.9 2.0 3.2 4.4 15.3 23.7 33.2 77.8 50.2 35.9 46.0 30.8 23.1 6.6 13.9 15.2 7 47
Sapphire Foods India Buy 1,367 1,450 6 86.9 1.1 1.4 1.0 1.7 22.1 15.2 26.8 62.0 90.0 51.0 20.2 16.4 12.1 6.4 7.4 18.7 7 36
Shoppers Stop Buy 780 957 23 85.5 1.0 1.2 1.6 2.3 11.1 15.0 20.9 70.3 51.9 37.3 12.3 10.4 8.9 21.5 41.5 19.2 12 73
Titan Co Ltd Buy 2,876 3,147 9 2,553.5 31.0 32.5 41.7 50.8 36.6 47.0 57.2 78.6 61.2 50.3 52.1 41.0 33.5 17.2 31.4 34.4 4 34
Trent Buy 1,598 1,638 2 568.2 6.9 5.6 6.7 8.9 15.6 18.7 24.9 102.3 85.4 64.1 50.7 41.7 33.2 15.3 17.9 30.6 8 44
United Spirits Buy 888 960 8 646.0 7.8 8.8 10.4 14.0 12.1 14.3 19.2 73.3 62.1 46.3 44.8 38.7 29.1 9.2 16.1 27.8 12 13
Vedant Fashion Buy 1,285 1,380 7 312.0 3.8 4.3 5.0 6.1 17.7 20.8 25.0 72.7 61.9 51.5 45.6 38.3 31.8 17.5 31.7 39.5 1 25
V-Mart Retail Buy 1,985 2,418 22 39.3 0.5 -0.1 0.5 1.0 -4.0 23.5 48.5 -498.5 84.4 40.9 15.0 11.9 9.4 4.4 5.3 7.7 -7 -29
Westlife Foodworld Hold 826 800 (3) 128.8 1.6 1.1 1.7 2.1 7.2 11.1 13.6 115.1 74.4 60.9 34.6 26.7 22.8 17.4 26.5 39.6 8 78
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 12 June 2023 | 18
Valuation Guide
Company Reco CMP TP Return M. Cap M. Cap Net profit (INR bn) EPS (INR) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) Absolute (%)
(INR) (INR) (%) (INR bn) (USD bn) FY23 FY24 FY25 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY24 FY24 FY24 1m 12m
contd...
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 12 June 2023 | 19
Valuation Guide
Company Reco CMP TP Return M. Cap M. Cap Net profit (INR bn) EPS (INR) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) Absolute (%)
(INR) (INR) (%) (INR bn) (USD bn) FY23 FY24 FY25 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY24 FY24 FY24 1m 12m
contd...
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 12 June 2023 | 20
Valuation Guide
Company Reco CMP TP Return M. Cap M. Cap Net profit (INR bn) EPS (INR) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) Absolute (%)
(INR) (INR) (%) (INR bn) (USD bn) FY23 FY24 FY25 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY24 FY24 FY24 1m 12m
UTILITIES
CESC Buy 71 93 31 94.5 1.1 14.0 19.4 20.1 10.5 14.6 15.1 6.8 4.9 4.7 9.3 5.7 5.8 0.9 11.7 10.9 1 -9
COAL India Buy 228 280 23 1,402.9 17.0 282.1 218.3 190.9 45.4 35.2 30.8 5.0 6.5 7.4 5.0 6.5 6.5 2.1 35.9 16.2 -3 15
Indian Energy Exchange Hold 123 105 (14) 109.3 1.3 2.9 3.4 3.8 3.2 3.7 4.2 37.8 32.8 29.2 31.5 26.2 23.2 10.9 36.2 39.1 -23 -33
JSW Energy Sell 261 209 (20) 429.9 5.2 14.8 37.0 42.1 9.1 22.7 25.9 28.8 11.5 10.1 16.1 7.8 6.7 1.9 17.9 18.0 1 6
NHPC Buy 45 54 21 447.0 5.4 42.8 41.3 50.3 4.2 4.0 4.9 10.7 11.0 9.1 12.0 10.5 8.6 1.2 10.8 7.3 0 35
NTPC Buy 183 197 8 1,772.6 21.5 177.9 180.8 179.9 18.0 18.3 18.2 10.1 10.0 10.0 8.2 8.6 8.2 1.3 13.5 9.7 4 18
Power Grid Buy 245 279 14 1,708.3 20.7 153.3 150.9 180.9 22.0 21.6 25.9 11.1 11.3 9.4 7.8 7.7 7.1 2.0 18.1 11.8 1 9
PTC India Buy 106 121 14 31.5 0.4 3.2 4.0 4.3 10.8 13.5 14.4 9.9 7.9 7.4 4.4 3.3 3.0 0.8 10.1 14.2 13 32
SJVN Ltd Buy 37 44 19 143.6 1.7 13.6 14.7 18.7 3.3 3.5 4.5 11.1 10.3 8.1 7.4 5.2 3.9 1.1 10.5 9.1 0 29
Torrent Power Hold 680 561 (18) 327.0 4.0 21.7 24.8 25.8 45.2 51.5 53.7 15.0 13.2 12.7 8.6 7.3 7.0 2.5 20.5 19.3 27 50
Tata Power Buy 221 245 11 706.8 8.6 38.1 31.3 26.4 11.9 9.8 8.3 18.6 22.6 26.8 12.6 8.3 7.9 2.6 15.4 9.8 7 -4
MIDCAPS - OTHER
APL Apollo Tubes Buy 1,228 1,344 9 340.5 4.1 6.4 8.8 11.5 23.1 31.6 41.5 53.1 38.9 29.6 33.8 25.1 19.7 9.3 26.3 29.1 4 30
CCL Products Buy 637 690 8 84.7 1.0 2.7 3.3 4.2 20.2 25.0 31.4 31.5 25.5 20.3 23.3 19.0 15.1 4.9 20.7 15.8 7 77
EPL Ltd. Buy 201 250 24 63.9 0.8 2.3 2.9 4.0 7.2 9.2 12.5 28.0 21.9 16.1 11.9 9.0 7.3 3.0 14.2 16.2 6 23
Ganesha Ecosphere Buy 1,053 1,300 23 23.0 0.3 0.7 0.8 1.6 34.2 38.7 72.3 30.8 27.2 14.6 20.7 14.3 9.7 3.2 12.5 12.4 -2 62
Indian Hotels Hold 382 365 (4) 542.5 6.6 10.0 12.0 13.5 7.0 8.4 9.5 54.3 45.3 40.2 30.8 25.9 23.4 6.1 14.2 14.3 7 73
Chalet Hotels Buy 433 550 27 88.8 1.1 1.4 2.4 3.7 7.0 11.9 17.8 61.9 36.5 24.3 25.1 17.8 14.5 4.5 13.2 11.1 4 46
Indian Hume Pipe Buy 199 177 (11) 9.6 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.9 11.5 12.8 17.7 17.3 15.6 11.2 11.5 9.7 8.0 1.3 8.6 11.3 39 27
Mold-Tek Packaging Buy 972 1,070 10 32.2 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.2 24.2 26.6 35.6 40.1 36.5 27.3 24.1 20.2 15.9 5.2 14.9 14.1 0 32
Raymond Buy 1,640 2,043 25 109.2 1.3 6.4 7.3 8.1 95.6 109.8 121.2 17.2 14.9 13.5 10.6 9.0 8.1 3.1 22.6 24.3 2 69
Solar Industries Hold 3,884 4,140 7 351.5 4.3 7.6 7.7 9.4 83.7 84.9 103.5 46.4 45.8 37.5 28.0 26.7 22.2 10.7 26.0 28.9 4 36
Varun Beverages Buy 1,591 1,580 (1) 1,033.7 12.5 15.0 21.2 26.5 23.1 32.6 40.8 69.0 48.7 39.1 38.3 28.1 23.3 14.8 35.2 31.5 2 111
Company Reco CMP TP Return M. Cap M. Cap Net profit (INR bn) BVPS (INR) P/BV (x)* NNPA Ratio (%) P/E (x) RoE (%) RoA (%) Absolute (%)
(INR) (INR) (%) (INR bn) (USD bn) FY23 FY24 FY25 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY24 FY24 FY24 1m 12m
FINANCIALS
Axis Bank Buy 975 1,050 8 3,001.3 36.4 95.8 237.0 271.3 397.6 464.9 541.9 2.3 2.0 1.7 0.4 0.7 0.4 12.7 17.9 1.7 7 48
Bank of Baroda Buy 185 220 19 955.9 11.6 141.1 169.9 173.1 171.9 198.1 224.8 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 5.6 17.7 1.1 3 76
Canara Bank Buy 311 390 25 564.2 6.8 106.0 123.8 125.3 364.5 419.1 474.4 0.9 0.7 0.7 1.7 1.4 1.5 4.6 17.4 0.9 5 50
City Union Bank Buy 125 170 37 92.2 1.1 9.4 10.0 11.3 100.7 112.8 126.5 1.2 1.1 1.0 2.4 2.1 2.2 9.2 12.7 1.4 -10 -9
DCB Bank Buy 116 150 29 36.3 0.4 4.7 5.3 6.2 137.0 151.5 168.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.2 6.9 11.7 0.9 2 42
Equitas SFB Buy 84 90 6 93.7 1.1 5.7 7.6 8.7 46.4 51.7 57.7 - - - 1.2 1.6 1.3 12.4 13.9 1.9 9 114
Federal Bank Buy 125 170 36 264.9 3.2 30.1 33.0 37.2 101.6 114.5 128.9 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.9 8.0 14.4 1.2 -1 36
HDFC Bank Buy 1,611 2,025 26 9,002.1 109.3 441.1 526.6 631.1 494.7 567.1 653.8 3.1 2.7 2.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 17.1 17.8 2.0 -3 19
ICICI Bank Buy 938 1,125 20 6,560.0 79.6 319.0 357.7 401.6 280.8 321.8 367.8 2.9 2.5 2.2 0.5 0.5 0.7 18.3 16.7 2.1 -1 30
IndusInd Bank Buy 1,331 1,460 10 1,032.9 12.5 73.9 86.1 102.0 700.1 790.3 895.7 1.9 1.7 1.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 12.0 14.9 1.8 10 46
Karur Vysya Bank Buy 110 140 28 87.5 1.1 11.1 11.6 12.7 107.0 118.9 131.9 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 7.6 12.8 1.2 14 133
Kotak Mahindra Bank Buy 1,872 2,250 20 3,718.9 45.1 109.4 124.4 135.3 402.6 462.9 528.4 3.6 3.0 2.5 0.4 0.6 0.7 29.9 14.5 2.3 -5 4
Punjab National Bank Hold 51 55 7 565.4 6.9 25.1 87.0 111.2 82.7 89.0 97.1 0.6 0.6 0.5 2.7 1.9 1.8 6.5 9.2 0.6 6 66
RBL Bank@ Not Rated 175 NA - 104.8 1.3 13.9 16.4 229.1 251.7 0.8 0.7 - 1.5 1.5 6.4 11.4 1.2 19 54
State Bank of India Buy 579 725 25 5,164.7 62.7 502.3 555.9 613.0 303.5 353.3 408.3 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.7 9.3 17.8 1.0 0 25
South Indian Bank Hold 18 21 18 37.8 0.5 7.8 9.6 10.4 30.2 34.3 38.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 1.9 1.5 1.4 3.9 14.3 0.8 2 131
Union Bank of India Hold 72 85 18 490.4 6.0 84.3 93.6 103.3 105.6 116.1 127.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 1.7 1.3 1.3 5.2 12.3 0.7 0 93
*Adjusted for subsidiaries; @ Under Review
NBFCs
Bajaj Finance Hold 7,037 6,341 (10) 4,260.5 51.7 114.0 137.5 170.2 898.51,111.51,378.6 7.8 6.3 5.1 0.7 0.6 0.6 30.9 22.7 5.2 5 24
CanFin Homes Buy 742 684 (8) 98.8 1.2 6.1 7.2 8.5 271.9 321.0 380.2 2.7 2.3 2.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 13.8 18.0 2.1 15 63
Cholamandalam Invst & Fin Buy 1,066 843 (21) 876.1 10.6 25.1 31.8 42.6 170.5 206.7 255.6 6.2 5.2 4.2 2.5 2.0 1.8 27.5 20.5 2.8 6 64
HDFC Buy 2,653 3,095 17 4,893.7 59.4 155.4 176.9 206.2 724.0 796.6 885.3 3.7 3.3 3.0 0.8 0.9 0.8 27.2 12.8 2.3 -4 22
LIC Housing Finance Hold 364 394 8 200.2 2.4 24.6 36.0 41.9 484.5 538.8 602.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 1.3 1.2 1.2 5.6 12.8 1.2 -3 9
Manappuram Buy 117 140 19 99.2 1.2 15.0 17.5 21.0 114.6 133.1 155.4 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 5.7 16.5 5.1 7 27
M&M Finance Buy 283 315 11 350.1 4.3 20.1 24.0 30.2 139.1 153.6 173.1 2.0 1.8 1.6 3.7 3.3 2.9 14.5 13.3 2.4 1 54
Muthoot Capital Buy 359 355 (1) 5.9 0.1 0.7 0.9 1.0 280.6 332.6 394.2 1.3 1.1 0.9 3.8 3.5 3.5 6.9 16.9 3.4 12 98
Muthoot Finance Buy 1,117 1,345 20 448.3 5.4 35.0 41.8 47.3 519.3 593.5 681.5 2.2 1.9 1.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 10.7 18.7 6.3 5 5
Repco Home Finance Buy 289 331 15 18.1 0.2 2.9 3.1 3.4 400.6 447.6 498.4 0.7 0.6 0.6 3.9 3.3 3.3 5.8 11.7 2.3 42 111
Shriram Finance Buy 1,417 1,685 19 530.6 6.4 64.8 75.4 87.7 1,156.1 1,327.41,531.5 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 16.2 3.5 5 22
Sundaram Finance Buy 2,571 2,662 4 285.6 3.5 10.4 11.6 13.4 699.1 785.7 887.9 3.7 3.3 2.9 3.2 2.8 2.4 24.6 14.1 3.2 8 35
Ujjivan Small Bank Buy 37 35 (5) 72.1 0.9 10.8 8.3 10.3 21.2 25.2 30.2 1.7 1.5 1.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 8.9 17.9 2.5 20 128
ICICI Securities Hold 525 525 0 169.4 2.1 11.6 15.1 17.7 91.2 110.7 133.6 5.8 4.7 3.9 11.2 46.5 5 14
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 12 June 2023 | 21
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