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Chapter 7: Decision Making and Creativity

Instructor’s Manual to Accompany


Canadian Organizational
Behaviour 9/e
by Steven L. McShane, Sandra L. Steen, and Kevin Tasa

Chapter 7:
Decision Making and Creativity
Prepared by: Steven L. McShane (The University of
Western Australia) Sandra L. Steen (University of
Regina) Kevin Tasa (York University)

Page 7-1
© 2015 by McGraw-Hill Ryerson. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This
document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part.
Chapter 7: Decision Making and Creativity

7
Decision Making
and Creativity
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
After reading this chapter, students should be able to:
1. Describe the rational choice paradigm of decision making.
2. Explain why people differ from the rational choice paradigm when identifying problems/
opportunities, evaluating/choosing alternatives, and evaluating decision outcomes.
3. Discuss the roles of emotions and intuition in decision making.
4. Describe employee characteristics, workplace conditions, and specific activities that
support creativity.
5. Describe the benefits of employee involvement and identify four contingencies that affect
the optimal level of employee involvement.

CHAPTER GLOSSARY

anchoring and adjustment heuristic -- A natural divergent thinking -- Reframing a problem in a unique
tendency for people to be influenced by an initial anchor way and generating different approaches to the issue.
point, such that they do not sufficiently move away
employee involvement -- The degree to which
from that point as new information is provided.
employees influence how their work is organized and
availability heuristic -- A natural tendency to assign carried out.
higher probabilities to objects or events that are easier to
escalation of commitment -- The tendency to repeat an
recall from memory, even though ease of recall is also
apparently bad decision or allocate more resources to a
affected by nonprobability factors (e.g., emotional
failing course of action.
response, recent events).
implicit favorite -- A preferred alternative that the
bounded rationality -- The view that people are
decision maker uses repeatedly as a comparison with
bounded in their decision-making capabilities, including
other choices.
access to limited information, limited information
processing, and tendency toward satisficing rather than intuition -- The ability to know when a problem or
maximizing when making choices. opportunity exists and to select the best course of action
without conscious reasoning.
creativity -- The development of original ideas that
make a socially recognized contribution. prospect theory effect -- A natural tendency to feel more
dissatisfaction from losing a particular amount than
decision making -- The conscious process of making
satisfaction from gaining an equal amount.
choices among alternatives with the intention of moving
toward some desired state of affairs.

© 2015 by McGraw-Hill Ryerson. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This
document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part.
Chapter 7: Decision Making and Creativity

rational choice paradigm -- The view in decision making scenario planning -- A systematic process of thinking
that people should—and typically do—use logic and all about alternative futures and what the organization
available information to choose the alternative with the should do to anticipate and react to those environments.
highest value.
subjective expected utility -- The probability
representativeness heuristic -- A natural tendency to (expectancy) of satisfaction (utility) resulting from
evaluate probabilities of events or objects by the degree choosing a specific alternative in a decision.
to which they resemble (are representative of) other
events or objects rather than on objective probability
information.
satisficing -- Selecting an alternative that is satisfactory
or “good enough,” rather than the alternative with the
highest value (maximization).

CHAPTER SUMMARY BY LEARNING OBJECTIVE


7-1 Describe the rational choice paradigm in decision making.
Decision making is a conscious process of making choices among one or more alternatives with the intention of
moving toward some desired state of affairs. The rational choice paradigm relies on subjective expected utility to
identify the best choice. It also follows the logical process of identifying problems and opportunities, choosing the
best decision style, developing alternative solutions, choosing the best solution, implementing the selected
alternative, and evaluating decision outcomes.

7-2 Explain why people differ from the rational choice paradigm when identifying problems/opportunities,
evaluating/choosing alternatives, and evaluating decision outcomes.
Stakeholder framing, perceptual defense, mental models, decisive leadership, and solution-oriented focus affect
our ability to objectively identify problems and opportunities. We can minimize these challenges by being aware of
the human limitations and discussing the situation with colleagues.
Evaluating and choosing alternatives is often challenging because organizational goals are ambiguous or in
conflict, human information processing is incomplete and subjective, and people tend to satisfice rather than
maximize. Decision makers also short-circuit the evaluation process when faced with an opportunity rather than a
problem. People generally make better choices by systematically evaluating alternatives. Scenario planning can
help make future decisions without the pressure and emotions that occur during real emergencies.
Confirmation bias and escalation of commitment make it difficult to evaluate decision outcomes accurately.
Escalation is mainly caused by the self-justification effect, self-enhancement effect, the prospect theory effect, and
sunk costs effect. These problems are minimized by separating decision choosers from decision evaluators,
establishing a preset level at which the decision is abandoned or re-evaluated, relying on more systematic and
clear feedback about the project’s success, and involving several people in decision making.

7-3 Discuss the roles of emotions and intuition in decision making.


Emotions shape our preferences for alternatives and the process we follow to evaluate alternatives. We also listen
in to our emotions for guidance when making decisions. This latter activity relates to intuition—the ability to know
when a problem or opportunity exists and to select the best course of action without conscious reasoning. Intuition
is both an emotional experience and a rapid, nonconscious, analytic process that involves pattern matching and
action scripts.

© 2015 by McGraw-Hill Ryerson. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This
document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part.
Chapter 7: Decision Making and Creativity

7-4 Describe employee characteristics, workplace conditions, and specific activities that support creativity.
Creativity is the development of original ideas that make a socially recognized contribution. The four creativity
stages are preparation, incubation, illumination, and verification. Incubation assists divergent thinking, which
involves reframing the problem in a unique way and generating different approaches to the issue.
Four of the main features of creative people are intelligence, persistence, expertise, and independent imagination.
Creativity is also strengthened for everyone when the work environment supports a learning orientation, the job
has high intrinsic motivation, the organization provides a reasonable level of job security, and project leaders
provide appropriate goals, time pressure, and resources. Three types of activities that encourage creativity are
redefining the problem, associative play, and cross-pollination.

7-5 Describe the benefits of employee involvement and identify four contingencies that affect the optimal level of
employee involvement.
Employee involvement refers to the degree that employees influence how their work is organized and carried out.
The level of participation may range from an employee providing specific information to management without
knowing the problem or issue, to complete involvement in all phases of the decision process. Employee
involvement may lead to higher decision quality and commitment, but several contingencies need to be
considered, including the decision structure, source of decision knowledge, decision commitment, and risk of
conflict.

© 2015 by McGraw-Hill Ryerson. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This
document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part.
Chapter 7: Decision Making and Creativity

®
Lecture Outline (with PowerPoint slides)

Decision Making and Creativity

Decision Making and


Creativity
Slide 1

Opening Vignette – Flawed Decision Making in the Lac


Megantic Train Disaster
According to the investigation by Transport Canada Safety Board
of Canada (TSB), a series of poor decisions led to the ghastly
Opening Vignette -
Flawed Decision Making accident which killed 47 people and destroyed 30 buildings in
in the Lac Megantic Lac Megantic
Train Disaster
Slide 2 • The disaster reveals the complexity, ambiguity, importance of
decision making in organizations

Rational Choice Paradigm


Rational choice paradigm – the view in decision making that
people should, and typically do, use logic and all available
information to choose the alternative with the highest value
Key elements:
Rational Choice
Paradigm • Subjective expected utility – the probability (expectancy) of
Slide 3 satisfaction (utility) resulting from choosing a specific
alternative in a decision – used to determine choice that
maximizes
• Decision making process – follows the systematic process and
application of stages of decision making

© 2015 by McGraw-Hill Ryerson. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This
document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part.
Chapter 7: Decision Making and Creativity

Rational Choice Decision Making Process


• Identify problem or opportunity
1. Problem – gap between “what is” and “what ought to be”
Rational Choice 2. Opportunity – deviation between current expectations and
Decision Making potentially better situation(s) not previously expected
Process
• Choose the best decision process
Slide 4
3. Programmed decisions – follow standard operating
procedures i.e. they have been resolved in the past
4. Nonprogrammed decisions – require all steps in the decision
model because the problems are new, complex, or ill-defined
• Develop possible choices – search for ready-made solutions first,
then develop/modify custom-made solution
• Select the choice with the highest subjective expected utility
• Implement the selected alternative – assumed to occur without
problems
• Evaluate the selected choice – whether the gap between “what is”
and “what ought to be” has narrowed

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document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part.
Chapter 7: Decision Making and Creativity

Problem Identification Challenges


Problems identification is not just the first step in decision
making, it is arguably the most important step
Problem Identification
Challenges Five Problem Identification Challenges:
Slide 5
• Stakeholder framing – stakeholders have vested interests and
filter information going to corporate decision makers
• Decisive leadership – problems or opportunities are
announced too quickly before logically assessing the situation
• Solution-focused problems – describing a problem as a veiled
solution e.g. people who feel uncomfortable with ambiguity
are particularly prone to this challenge
• Perceptual defence – blocking out bad news as a coping
mechanism (fail to see information that threatens self-
concept)
• Mental models – frame the problem through preconceived
mental models which may blind us from seeing unique
problems or opportunities

Missed Opportunity – Google


Preconceived mental models of business success prevented Yahoo!
Executives, from recognizing the potential of Google’s search engine.
Missed Opportunity
Slide 6

Identifying Problems & Opportunities More Effectively


• Be aware of perceptual and diagnostic limitations
• Resist temptation of looking decisive when more thoughtful
examination of the situation should occur
Identifying Problems &
Opportunities More • Create a norm of divine discontent – avoid being satisfied with the
Effectively status quo and adopt an aversion to complacency
Slide 7 • Discuss the situation with colleagues to discover blind spots and
see different perspectives

© 2015 by McGraw-Hill Ryerson. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This
document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part.
Chapter 7: Decision Making and Creativity

Making Choices: Rational vs OB Views


Bounded rationality – people process limited and imperfect
information and rarely select the best choice
Problems with goals
Making Choices:
Rational vs OB Views • Rational – goals are clear, compatible, and agreed-upon
Slide 8 • OB – goals are ambiguous, conflicting, lack full support

Problems with information processing


• Rational – people can calculate all alternatives and their
outcomes
• OB – people have limited information processing abilities

Problems with evaluation timing


• Rational – choices evaluated simultaneously
• OB – choices evaluated sequentially

Making Choices: Rational vs OB Views (cont’d)


Problems with evaluation standards
➡ Rational – people use absolute standards to evaluate
alternatives
➡ OB – people evaluate against an implicit favourite
Making Choices:
Rational vs OB Views Problems with information quality
(cont’d)
➡ Rational – choices are made using factual information
Slide 9
➡ OB – choices are made using distorted information

Problems with maximization


➡ Rational – people maximize i.e. choose alternative with the
highest payoff (highest utility)
➡ OB – people satisfice i.e. select “good enough” alternative

© 2015 by McGraw-Hill Ryerson. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This
document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part.
Chapter 7: Decision Making and Creativity

Biased Decision Heuristics


People have built-in decision heuristics that bias evaluation of
alternatives
•Anchoring and adjustment heuristic – we are influenced by an
initial anchor point (e.g. initial offer price, initial opinion) and do
not sufficiently move away from that point as new information is
Biased Decision provided
Heuristics
Slide 10 •Availability heuristic – the tendency to estimate the probability of
something occurring by how easily we can recall those events i.e.
we easily remember emotional events (e.g. shark attack) so we
overestimate how often these traumatic events occur
•Representative heuristic – the tendency to pay more attention to
whether something resembles (is representative of) something
else than on more precise statistics about its probability
E.g. You know that 20% of your students are in engineering and 80%
are business majors, however, if one student looks like a stereotype of
an engineering student we tend to believe the person is in engineering
even though there is greater probability that he/she is a business major

Problems with Maximization


Studies have found that people like to have choices but when
exposed to many alternatives they become cognitive misers by
engaging in satisficing
• When presented with many choices, people often choose the
Problems with
least cognitively challenging alternative – no decision at all
Maximization
Slide 11 • Occurs even when there are clear benefits of selecting any
alternative (such as joining a company retirement plan)

© 2015 by McGraw-Hill Ryerson. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This
document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part.
Chapter 7: Decision Making and Creativity

Emotions and Making Choices


Emotions affect the evaluation of alternatives in 3 ways:
•Emotions Form Early Preferences – emotional marker process
shapes our preferences for each alternative before we
Emotions and Making consciously evaluate those alternatives
Choices
Slide 12 •Emotions Change the Decision Evaluation Process – moods and
emotions influence the process of evaluating alternatives e.g. we
may pay more attention to details when in a negative mood
•Emotions Serve as Information When We Evaluate Alternatives –
we listen in on our emotions to gain guidance when making
choices (similar to having a temporary improvement in emotional
intelligence)

Intuition and Making Decisions


Intuition – ability to know when a problem or opportunity exists
and to select the best course of action without conscious
reasoning
Intuition and Making
Decisions Intuition is an emotional experience
Slide 13 ➡ Gut feelings are emotional signals
➡ Not all emotional signals are intuition

Intuition is a rapid unconscious analysis


➡ Relies on action scripts – programmed decision routines that
shorten the decision making process

Making Choices more Effectively


• Systematically evaluate alternatives against relevant factors
• Remember that decisions are influenced by both emotional
and rational processes
Making Choices more
Effectively • Use scenario planning – a disciplined method for imagining
Slide 14 possible futures

© 2015 by McGraw-Hill Ryerson. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This
document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part.
Chapter 7: Decision Making and Creativity

Evaluating Decision Outcomes

Confirmation bias (also known as post-decisional


justification)
• Tendency to ignore or downplay the negative features of the
selected alternative and overemphasize positive features
Evaluating Decision
Outcomes • Inflates decision maker’s initial evaluation of the decision
Slide 15
Escalation of Commitment
• Tendency to repeat an apparently bad decision or allocate
more resources to a failing course of action
• Self-justification effect – deliberate attempt to maintain a
favourable public image
• Prospect theory effect – tendency to experience stronger
negative emotions when losing something of value than the
positive emotions when gaining something of equal value
• Self-enhancement effect – nonconsciously distorting
information so we do not recognize a problem sooner and
biasing our probability of success
• Sunk costs effect – people feel motivated to invest more
resources in projects that have high sunk costs (e.g. time,
financial)

Evaluating Decision Outcomes


• Separate decision choosers from decision evaluators – minimizes
self-justification effect
• Stop loss – publicly establish a preset level at which the decision
Evaluating Decision is abandoned or re-evaluated
Outcomes
• Find sources of systematic and clear feedback
Slide 16

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document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part.
Chapter 7: Decision Making and Creativity

Creativity in Decision Making – Tangible Creativity


Creativity – development of original ideas that make a socially
recognized contribution
1. At work when imagining opportunities, developing alternatives,
choosing alternatives
Creativity in Decision
Making – Tangible
Creativity
Slide 17

The Creative Process


1. Preparation
• Investigating the problem or opportunity in many ways e.g.
developing a clear understanding of what you are trying to
achieve and actively studying information about the issue

The Creative Process 2. Incubation


Slide 18 • Period of reflective thought i.e. put the problem aside but
maintain low level of awareness
• Assists divergent thinking – reframing a problem in a unique
way and generating different approaches to the issue
• Contrasts with convergent thinking – calculating the
conventionally accepted “right answer” to a logical problem
3. Illumination
• The experience of suddenly becoming aware of a unique idea
i.e. bits of inspiration
4. Verification
• Detailed, logical evaluation and experimentation

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document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part.
Chapter 7: Decision Making and Creativity

Characteristics of Creative People


Cognitive and practical intelligence
• Above-average cognitive intelligence to synthesize
information, analyze, and apply ideas
• Practical intelligence – capacity to evaluate the potential
usefulness of ideas
Characteristics of
Creative People
Persistence
Slide 19
• Higher need for achievement, strong motivation from the task
itself, and moderate or high degree of self-esteem
Knowledge and experience
• Foundation of knowledge and experience – caution is that
mental models may become more rigid
Independent imagination (cluster of personality traits and
values)
• High openness to experience, moderately low need for
affiliation, strong values around self-direction and stimulation

Creative Work Environments


Learning orientation
• See mistakes as part of the creative process
Intrinsically motivating jobs
• Motivation from the job itself e.g. task significance,
autonomy, aligned with the employee’s competencies
Creative Work
Environments Open communication and sufficient resources
Slide 20 • Includes degree of job security
• Providing nontraditional workspaces e.g. unique building
design

Note: It isn’t clear how much pressure should be


exerted on employees to produce creative ideas or the
effect of co-worker support/co-worker competition

© 2015 by McGraw-Hill Ryerson. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This
document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part.
Chapter 7: Decision Making and Creativity

Activities That Encourage Creativity


Redefining the problem
• Look at abandoned projects—might be seen in new ways
• Ask people unfamiliar with issue to explore the problem
Creative Activities Associative play
Slide 21 • Engaging in playful activities
• Morphological analysis – listing different dimensions of a
system and the elements of each dimension and then looking
at each combination
Cross-Pollination
• People from different parts of the organization exchange
ideas or bringing new people into the team
• Social interaction

Brasilata, The Ideas Company


Brasilata has become one of the most innovative and productive
manufacturing businesses in Brazil by involving employees in
company decisions.

Brasilata, The Ideas


Company
Slide 22

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document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part.
Chapter 7: Decision Making and Creativity

Employee Involvement Defined


The degree to which employees influence how their work is
organized and carried out (also called participative
management)
Levels of involvement (lowest to highest)
Employee Involvement
Defined
• Low – employees are individually asked for specific information
Slide 23
but the problem is not described to them
• Somewhat higher involvement – the problem is described to
employees and employees are asked for information related to
that problem
• Moving higher – the problem is described to employees who
are collectively given responsibility for developing
recommendations
• Highest level – entire decision making process is handed over
to employees

Employee Involvement Model


Employee involvement potentially improves decision making
quality and commitment
1. Improves identification of problems and opportunities
• Provides a conduit for organizational leaders
Employee Involvement
Model 2. Synergy produces more/better solutions
Slide 24
• Team members create synergy by pooling their knowledge to
form new alternatives
3. Improves the evaluation of alternatives
• Decision is reviewed by people with diverse perspectives and
a broader representation of values
4. Strengthens decision commitment
• Increases sense of personal responsibility for decision’s
success

© 2015 by McGraw-Hill Ryerson. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This
document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part.
Chapter 7: Decision Making and Creativity

Contingencies of Employee Involvement


Optimal level of employee involvement depends on the
situation. Higher employee involvement is better when:
1. Decision structure
• Problem is new and/or complex i.e. nonprogrammed decision
Contingencies of
Employee Involvement 2. Source of decision knowledge
Slide 25
• The leader lacks knowledge and employees have information
3. Decision commitment
• Employees are unlikely to accept a decision made without
their involvement
4. Risk of conflict
• Employee norms support the organization’s goals
• Employees are likely to agree on the solution

Decision Making and Creativity

Decision Making and


Creativity
Slide 26

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document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part.
Chapter 7: Decision Making and Creativity

SOLUTIONS TO CRITICAL THINKING QUESTIONS

1. A management consultant is hired by a manufacturing firm to determine the best site for its next production
facility. The consultant has had several meetings with the company’s senior executives regarding the factors to
consider when making the recommendation. Discuss the decision-making problems that might prevent the
consultant from choosing the best site location.
This question directly relates to the section on evaluating and choosing solutions. The consultant is asked to
determine the best site location, and this process is subject to the problems presented below. Each problem should
include an example relating to this incident.
Problems with Goals. The consultant likely discovered that executives at the manufacturing firm are not fully
agreed on the priority of factors to consider when choosing a site. They may have conflicting goals – such as a site
that is conveniently located yet low cost. Some of the goals will be ambiguous, such as “convenience.”
Problems with Information Processing. The consultant is subject to the same human limitations as other people. The
consultant’s personal biases may cause some information to be screened out or viewed in an unrealistically
favorable light. The consultant is unable to evaluate all possible sites (there must be thousands of them!), let alone
consider every factor for each site. Finally, the consultant probably compares sites against an implicit favorite,
rather than look at all prospective sites simultaneously.
Problems with Maximization. The consultant’s recommendation probably won’t be the absolutely best site. Given
the volume of information and the sequential decision process, the recommended site is probably one that is “good
enough.” In other words, the consultant will satisfice.

2. You have been asked to personally recommend a new travel agency to handle all airfare, accommodation, and
related travel needs for your organization of 500 staff. One of your colleagues, who is responsible for the
company’s economic planning, suggests that the best travel agent could be selected mathematically by
inputting the relevant factors for each agency and the weight (importance) of each factor. What decision-
making approach is your colleague recommending? Is this recommendation a good idea in this situation? Why
or why not?
The rational choice paradigm approach is being recommended for this decision.
The idea that relevant factors should be identified and weighted is good. At least this would help us think about
which factors are most important for the company. These could include such factors as, cost, speed of service,
quality of service, etc.
However, his suggestion that the best decision could be arrived at mathematically is somewhat misleading. While
the rational choice paradigm may rest on the assumption that people evaluate and choose the best alternatives
logically, that is not borne out by empirical evidence.
OB experts have demonstrated that decision-makers may not choose the best alternatives for a variety of reasons.
For example, decision makers have limited information processing abilities, evaluate alternatives sequentially and
against implicit favorites, and are influenced by perceptual errors, biases and emotions. Moreover, when it comes
to making a final choice their decisions are often made on the basis of satisficing rather than maximization.

© 2015 by McGraw-Hill Ryerson. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. This
document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part.
Chapter 7: Decision Making and Creativity

3. Intuition is both an emotional experience and a nonconscious analytic process. One problem, however, is that
not all emotions signaling that there is a problem or opportunity represent intuition. Explain how we would
know if our “gut feelings” are intuition or not, and if not intuition, suggest what might be causing them.
All gut feelings are conscious awareness of emotional experiences. However, not all emotional experiences
constitute intuition.
Intuition involves using well established mental models and templates (derived from tacit knowledge we have
acquired) to compare what fits or doesn’t fit in an observable situation. The unconscious comparison allows us to
anticipate future events. Intuition also relies on action scripts, which are preprogrammed routines for responding
to matched or mismatched patterns. These scripts allow us to act without having to consciously evaluate the
alternatives.
Gut feelings, on the other hand, are not based on well-grounded templates or mental models. Therefore, gut
feelings would be more likely to occur in situations where one has limited experience. The cause of these feelings
would be due to some emotional reaction to a given situation.

4. A developer received financial backing for a new business financial center along a derelict section of the
waterfront, a few miles from the current downtown area of a large European city. The idea was to build several
high-rise structures, attract large businesses to those sites, and have the city extend transportation systems out
to the new center. Over the next decade, the developer believed that others would build in the area, thereby
attracting the regional or national offices of many financial institutions. Interest from potential business
tenants was much lower than initially predicted and the city did not build transportation systems as quickly as
expected. Still, the builder proceeded with the original plans. Only after financial support was curtailed did the
developer reconsider the project. Using your knowledge of escalation of commitment, discuss three possible
reasons why the developer was motivated to continue with the project.
Escalation of commitment occurs when an individual repeats a bad decision or continues to allocate resources to a
failing cause of action. This incident is a variation of the Canary Wharf project in London, which nearly put
developer Olympia and York into bankruptcy. It is unfair to say that the Canary Wharf event was due to escalation
of commitment (we don’t have enough information about the internal decision making), but the incident described
here certainly provides a setting for discussion of this topic. There are four main causes of escalation
Self-justification effect. Canceling the development may have suggested that the developer (who originally proposed
and championed the project) made a bad decision whereas continuing the development would be vote of
confidence towards his/her leadership ability. The developer also may have continued the project if he/she had
linked it to the company’s future success. To reverse this position would convey an image of inconsistent
leadership.
Self-enhancement effect. The developer likely screened out or neutralized negative information because of a self-
perception of being above average. In addition, the project was clearly high risk (redesigning a significant portion
of the city), so the developer seems to exhibit self-enhancement in the form of perceiving a higher probability of
success in spite of these risks. In other words, decision makers falsely believe that luck is on their side, so they
invest more in a losing course of action.
Prospect theory effect. The discomfort associated with losing money on this project may have outweighed the desire
for gains. In other words, knowing that stopping the project would mean certain loss, he/she was willing to go to
great lengths to avoid this, even it meant a smaller pay off in the end.
Sunk costs effect. Discontinuing the project would almost certainly have high financial costs for the developer, such
as past expenditures and canceling contracts. The amount of investment “sunk” into the project would have
motivated the developer to continue investing further even if those investment resources would have been more
productive elsewhere.

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Chapter 7: Decision Making and Creativity

5. Ancient Book Company has a problem with new book projects. Even when others are aware that a book is far
behind schedule and may engender little public interest, sponsoring editors are reluctant to terminate contracts
with authors whom they have signed. The result is that editors invest more time with these projects than on
more fruitful projects. As a form of escalation of commitment, describe two methods that Ancient Book
Company can use to minimize this problem.
The textbook identifies four strategies to improve decision evaluation:
Separate chooser from implementers. The most effective strategy is to separate decision choosers from decision
implementers. This minimizes the problem of saving face because the person responsible for implementation and
evaluation would not be concerned about saving face if the project is cancelled.
Establish a stop-loss decision rule. Another way to minimize escalation of commitment establish a preset level at
which the decision is abandoned or reevaluated. The problem with this solution is that conditions are often so
complex that it is difficult to identify an appropriate point to abandon a project. However, this approach may work
if a stopping point can be determined and it is established by someone other than the decision maker.
Find systematic and clear feedback. The clearer the feedback, the more difficult it is to deny that the project has
problems. Unfortunately, this solution is rarely available because many decisions have only ambiguous feedback.
Involve more than one person in the initial decision. It may be less likely two or more people would be similarly
attached personally with the decision. However, this action is also likely the least effective among these four.

6. A fresh graduate is offered a job by an employer she admires even before she can start her job search. The
student thinks it is an opportunity and jumps to it. Do you think there is an effect of emotions in her decision
making?
The rational choice paradigm assumes that decision makers follow the systematic process. However, emotions
affect the evaluation of alternatives. Emotional marker process determines our preferences for each alternative
before we consciously think about those alternatives. The student probably has done this in the given situation.
Emotions also influence the process of evaluation. Therefore, the student probably has been quick to choose an
employer she admires here and has been biased towards other alternatives if any. Emotions also serve as
information when we evaluate alternatives. Hence, the student perhaps was swayed by her emotional reaction,
however, she still seems to be informed by reasons of why she admired the employer in the first place.

7. Think of a time when you experienced the creative process. Maybe you woke up with a brilliant (but usually
sketchy and incomplete) idea, or you solved a baffling problem while doing something else. Describe this
incident to your class and explain how the experience followed the creative process.
For this question, students should be encouraged to think about a recent project they may completed and done
well (e.g. major research project). They may initially recall the event in a general sense, but should strive to divide
it according to the four stages outlined in the creative process model
The insight stage should be particularly relevant since it is the point at which one idea may come while thinking or
doing something else. Students should try to remember how the idea came to them and how they documented and
tested it. Once done, they may be able to also recall the previous stage (incubation).

8. Two characteristics of creative people are that they have relevant experience and are persistent in their quest.
Does this mean that people with the most experience and the highest need for achievement are the most
creative? Explain your answer.
The answer is probably “No”. The textbook states that there is a dilemma regarding experience. On the one hand,
people need plenty of experience to be familiar with the issues. The literature on creativity suggests that it may
take several years of experience before a person has reached creative potential.
The dilemma is that the longer a person is in one field of study, the more he/she develops a mental model that
stifles creativity. Some companies prefer people with no experience in an industry so they are more creative.
These two points are not exactly contradictory – a person may be new to an industry but has many years of

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Chapter 7: Decision Making and Creativity

experience in a particular skill or trade. However, the issue does suggest that there is an optimal level of
experience before mental models undermine creative potential.
It is less certain whether creativity continues to increase with need for achievement. The textbook explains that
need for achievement makes creative people more persistent, which is necessary in the face of short-term failures
and doubts from others. Would a very strong need for achievement undermine creative potential? This is a matter
for debate. Most likely too much need for achievement will create blind drive which can prevent people from
seeing alternative strategies and the obvious inappropriateness of existing routes.

9. Employee involvement applies just as well to the classroom as to the office or factory floor. Explain how
student involvement in classroom decisions typically made by the instructor alone might improve decision
quality. What potential problems may occur in this process?
Problem identification. Because students have a different perspective than the instructor, their involvement might
help identify issues or problems the instructor was unaware of. This could lead to improvements in the quality of
the learning experience.
Generating alternatives. Student involvement could potential improve the number and quality of solutions
generated. This typically happens when more people look for solutions, because individuals have different
perspectives.
Better solutions. The likelihood of choosing the best solution, from the list of alternatives generated, would be
increased due to diverse perspectives and values.
Increased commitment. When students are involved in identifying the issues, generating alternative solutions, and
choosing a solution they may also feel more committed to the decision taken.
Increased perception of fairness. Being involved in the process, may also promote a sense of fairness among students.
To avoid problems with this process, limits should be placed on the extent of participation, and the number of
issues requiring student involvement. For example, the determination of grades should be left up to the instructor.
The types of questions and weightings of exams should also be predetermined.
The instructor would have to make sure all students are equally involved to avoid a small influential and vocal
group of students from dominating the others.
Lastly, the instructor should be mindful that increasing student involvement requires more time, which may in
turn reduce teaching time.

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Chapter 7: Decision Making and Creativity

CASE INCIDENTS: EMPLOYEE INVOLVEMENT


INCIDENTS
Scenario Synopsis
These four scenarios provide an excellent opportunity for students to discuss the conditions under which various
levels of employee involvement should be applied. To decide the best level, students should consider the benefits of
and problems with employee involvement described in this chapter.

Suggested Answers to Case Questions


The five levels of involvement identified in each of the three scenarios is as follows:
Decide alone. Use your personal knowledge and in- sight to complete the entire decision process without
conferring with anyone else.
Receive information from individuals. Ask specific individuals for information. They do not make
recommendations and might not even know what the problem is about.
Consult with individuals. Describe the problem to selected individuals and seek both their information and
recommendations. The final decision is made by you, and you may or may not take the advice from these others
into account.
Consult with the team. You bring together a team of people (all department staff or a representation of them if the
department is large), who are told about the problem and provide their ideas and recommendations. You make the
final decision, which may or may not reflect the team’s information.
Facilitate the team’s decision. The entire decision- making process is handed over to a team or commit- tee of
subordinates. You serve only as a facilitator to guide the decision process and keep everyone on track. The team
identifies the problem, discovers alternative solutions, chooses the best alternative, and implements their choice.

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Chapter 7: Decision Making and Creativity

Scenario 1: The Productivity Dividend Decision


Situation: As head of the transmission/distribution group (TD group) in the city’s water agency, students have been
asked to reduce costs over the next year and need to determine whether and to what extent to involve the 300
employees in the business unit.

1. To what extent should your employees be involved in this decision? Select one of the following levels of
involvement:
Most teams will likely identify a medium high level of involvement (consult with the team), although some tend to
suggest lower involvement (receive information from individuals or consult individuals only).

2. What factors led you to choose this alternative rather than the others?
This question can be answered by reviewing the four contingencies of employee involvement discussed in the
textbook.
Decision structure: This decision has low structure. The scenario provides a situation that is relatively complex and
require a variety of knowledge sources. Consequently, some level of involvement will be necessary.
Source of decision knowledge: This scenario states that you have limited knowledge relative to employees, and that
even supervisors two levels below you lack sufficient details about the work to provide enough information.
Therefore, it will be necessary to involve front-line employees. Furthermore, given the complexity of the business
and dispersion of knowledge at the front lines, it is reasonable to argue that “receiving information from
individuals” would be too low a level of involvement. the reason is that you would not know what information to
request. Therefore, involvement probably needs to include describing the problem to employees. However, this
medium-level involvement also carries risks because of the risks of conflict between employees and the company,
discussed below.
Decision commitment. There isn’t any direct information about employee commitment to decisions under various
levels of involvement. However, since a moderate level of involvement is probably necessary (see above), this may
be sufficient if any commitment is otherwise lacking.
Risk of conflict. There are two dimensions of this contingency. First, with respect to goal compatibility between
employees and the company, this is a very high risk because the productivity dividend decisions may eventually
have negative consequences for employees. The union clearly opposes the initiative and might encourage some
employees to make decisions for their personal or union’s benefit without consideration of other stakeholder needs
(e.g. lower costs to consumers). Even if employees ignore the union’s warnings, they might make decisions that
work well for their unit but result in higher cots elsewhere in the organization. The scenario states: “employees
may be unaware of or care little about these repercussions, because there is limited interaction with or social
bonding by employees across the departments.”
The second potential risk of conflict -- employees may have difficulty agreeing among themselves -- might occur
because the unit has diverse employees with different skills and knowledge. It doesn’t seem that this risk is very
high, but it is a reasonable possibility. For example, some employees might suggest changes to another job group
in the TD Group, which causes employees in the affected group to oppose that idea. Overall, the conflict among
employee discourages high involvement, but will support a medium level of involvement.

3. What problems might occur if less or more involvement occurred in this case (where possible)?
A high degree of involvement is likely problematic because of the risk of conflict between employees and the
organization’s interests and with other work units in the organization. There may also be conflict among
employees within the TD Group because some decisions may have adverse effects on specific subgroups in that
unit.

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Chapter 7: Decision Making and Creativity

A low level of involvement, including deciding alone and receiving information from individuals, would be too
low due to your lack of knowledge about how to find ways to improve efficiency and even lack of knowledge
about what questions to ask front-line staff on this matter. The business is too complex.

Scenario 2: The Sugar Substitute Research Decision


Situation: As head of research and development (R&D) at a major beer company, students are asked to determine
whether and to what extent to involve the department’s researchers in allocating budget for further research on a new
sugar substitute into which one researcher has tentatively discovered.

1. To what extent should your employees be involved in this decision? Select one of the following levels of
involvement:
Most teams will likely identify some level of consultation, although some tend to suggest high involvement
(facilitate the team’s decision). The answer to the next question explains why medium involvement is probably
best here.

2. What factors led you to choose this alternative rather than the others?
This question can be answered by reviewing the four contingencies of employee involvement discussed in the
textbook.
Decision structure: This decision has low structure. The incident says that there is a decision process for funding
projects behind schedule, but there are no rules or precedents about funding projects that would be licensed but
not used by the organization. Consequently, some level of involvement may be valuable.
Source of decision knowledge: The incident clearly says that the sugar substitute project is beyond your technical
expertise and that it is difficult to determine the amount of research required. Scientists have information
unavailable to the leader, but they would not have sufficient information to make the decision alone. Overall, this
suggests that some involvement (consultation with individuals or the team) is desirable.
Decision commitment. This might be debatable, but most employees know that funding decisions are ultimately in
the hands of executives who must take responsibility for those decisions. Also, it sounds like past funding
decisions are made by the leader, not employees (mainly due to conflict problems described below). Moreover,
employees don’t implement anything as a result of this decision, so there is probably minimal adverse effect of low
commitment.
Risk of conflict. There are two dimensions of this contingency. First, with respect to goal compatibility between
employees and the company, the incident says that you believe that most researchers in the R&D unit are
committed to ensuring company’s interests are achieved. Second, it is almost certainly true that conflict will occur
among employees. This is a win-lose situation where funding one project reduces or eliminates funding on other
projects. Overall, the conflict among employees means that the decision should not be given to the team, but
consultation with individuals or the team is fine.

3. What problems might occur if less or more involvement occurred in this case (where possible)?
A higher degree of involvement would probably be difficult because of the problem of conflict among employees.
Employees could not agree because a decision to fund the project would reduce their own funding. A low level of
involvement would lose some of synergy of discussion about the issue. This synergy brings out valuable
information and potentially more creative solutions to the problem.

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Chapter 7: Decision Making and Creativity

Scenario 3: Coast Guard Cutter Decision Problem


Situation: Students are placed in the role of a captain of a Coast Guard cutter who is searching for a plane that has
crashed offshore. After 20 hours of searching, a major storm is approaching and the captain must decide whether to
abandon the search or to continue and place the ship at risk. Students must determine whether and to what extent to
involve the crew in the decision.

1. To what extent should your employees be involved in this decision? Select one of the following levels of
involvement:
The preferred level of involvement is “Decide alone” (no involvement). Specifically, the captain would solve the
problem or make the decision him/herself using information available at the time.

2. What factors led you to choose this alternative rather than the others?
This question can be answered by reviewing the four contingencies of employee involvement discussed in the
textbook.
Decision structure: This decision probably has high structure because the captain must ultimately protect the ship
and crew, or would have reasonably clear rules on taking this sort of risk.
Source of decision knowledge: The captain has as much information as anyone on the ship about which option to
select.
Decision commitment. The crew will likely support the captain’s decision without any involvement.
Risk of conflict. There is a reasonable possibility that crew members will be divided (i.e., conflict will occur) over the
preferred alternative.

3. What problems might occur if less or more involvement occurred in this case (where possible)?
The main problem with applying a higher level of employee involvement here is that the problem is well
structured and the time-consuming process may be redundant. There is also a chance that subordinates would
engage in dysfunctional conflict if they were asked to make the decision.

Scenario 4: Social Media Policy Decision


Situation: Students are placed in the role of head of the state government’s industry initiatives agency. Comments from
potential applicants have led you to consider having a social media policy in the agency, particularly to have work-
related sites they can access and develop during work hours. Students are asked to determine whether and to what
extent employees should be involved in forming a social media policy within the agency.

1. To what extent should your employees be involved in this decision? Select one of the following levels of
involvement:
Most teams will likely identify a medium high level of involvement (consult with individuals and/or the entire
agency).

2. What factors led you to choose this alternative rather than the others?
This question can be answered by reviewing the four contingencies of employee involvement discussed in the
textbook.
Decision structure: This decision has low structure because there is no existing standard policy in the state
government or even within the department to which the agency reports. Consequently, some level of involvement
will likely to be valuable.

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Chapter 7: Decision Making and Creativity

Source of decision knowledge: The scenario reveals that although you are interested and intrigued by the potential of
social media, you lack sufficient information relative to the professionals in your agency, particularly younger
staff. It is unclear whether you have enough information about social media to ask others for specific information.
Generally, some level of involvement is required, possibly at least telling others about the problem (need for a
policy).
Decision commitment. It is apparent that some people strongly support (and current have) social media at work,
whereas others are opposed. Involving people in the social policy decision to some degree might increases support
for the final decision because at least everyone has had their voice heard on this matter. Therefore, most students
would likely suggest that the agency head needs to tell the problem to others and consult as many people as
possible (individually, possibly in groups).
Risk of conflict. There are two dimensions of this contingency. First, conflict will almost certainly occur among
employees because the scenario describes opposing views. Some actively use social media and support it, whereas
others are apparently strongly opposed to the activity in the workplace. As such, the final decision must rest with
the agency head (the highest level of involvement is excluded). Regarding the second risk of conflict, it is unclear
whether there will be goal compatibility between employees and the agency or state government. However, the
first conflict precludes the highest involvement even if employees would decide in the agency’s best interests.
Overall, the conflict among employees discourages high involvement, but will support a medium level of
involvement involving consultation with individuals and possibly at a group level.

3. What problems might occur if less or more involvement occurred in this case (where possible)?
Due to the risk of conflict among employees, a high degree of involvement (facilitate the team’s decision) would
likely result in no decision due to lack of agreement.
A low level of involvement -- where the agency heads asks specific employees for information without describing
the issue -- may be possibly, but carries two risks. First, the agency head might not have enough knowledge to
know what information to request. Second, there is a risk of lack of employee commitment because the issue is
polarized. Giving everyone an opportunity to present their views may increase acceptance of the decision
whichever way it goes.

TEAM EXERCISE: WHERE IN THE WORLD ARE WE?

Purpose
This exercise is designed to help students to understand the potential advantages of involving others in decisions
rather than making decisions alone.

Materials
Students require an unmarked copy of the map of Canada with grid marks (provided in the textbook). Students are not
allowed to look at any other maps or use any other materials. The instructor will provide a list of communities located
somewhere on Exhibit 2 (see next page of this manual). The instructor will also provide copies of the answer sheet after
students have individually and in teams estimated the locations of communities ( see two pages forward in this
manual).

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Chapter 7: Decision Making and Creativity

Instructions
Step 1: Students are asked to write down in Exhibit 1 the list of communities identified by the instructor. Then,
working alone, students estimate the location in Exhibit 2 of these communities, all of which are in Canada. For
example, they would mark a small “1” in Exhibit 2 on the spot where they believe the first community is located. They
would mark a small “2” where they think the second community is located, and so on. Students need to number each
location clearly and with numbers small enough to fit within one grid space.
Step 2: The instructor will organize students into approximately equal sized teams (typically 5 or 6 people per team).
Team members should reach a consensus on the location of each community listed in Exhibit 1. The instructor might
provide teams with a separate copy of this map, or each member can identify the team’s numbers using a different
collared pen on their individual maps. The team’s decision for each location should occur by consensus, not voting or
averaging.
Step 3: The instructor will provide or display an answer sheet, showing the correct locations of the communities. Using
this answer sheet, students will count the minimum number of grid squares between the location they individually
marked and the true location of each community. Students then write the number of grid squares in the second
column of Exhibit 1, then add up the total. Next, they count the minimum number of grid squares between the
location the team marked and the true location of each community. They should then write the number of grid squares
in the third column of Exhibit 1, then add up the total.
Step 4: The instructor will ask for information about the totals and the class will discuss the implication of these results
for employee involvement and decision making.

Comments to Instructors
This exercise demonstrates the importance of employee involvement for better decision making. Generally, teams
make better decisions than do individuals working alone. This is reflected by a “Team Score” that is usually lower than
the “Individual Score.” This is particularly true in this exercise because students typically have varied backgrounds in
terms of where they have lived or where their families live. Students currently in Vancouver might easily locate Bella
Coola but not Estevan. But if one student was raised in Saskatchewan, the team will likely score higher than the
average individual.
The discussion following the exercise should focus on the reasons why groups tend to make better decisions.
Specifically, team members bring diverse knowledge to the decision process, so the collective decision is usually more
accurate than the typical individual’s decision.
The instructor should also ask about situations in which team members ignored ideas from members who would have
provided a more accurate solution. For example, a strong-willed team member might convince others that Estevan is in
Ontario even though one team member is quite sure s/he drove through Estevan a few summers ago. Also inquire
about power struggles in the groups.

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Chapter 7: Decision Making and Creativity

COMMUNITIES IN CANADA
[Note: These names are NOT jumbled. This is how they are actually spelled. The names are not listed in any particular
order.]

1. HANOVER
2. BELLA COOLA
3. GLACE BAY
4. GRANBY
5. ESTEVAN
6. INUVIK
7. MARATHON
8. CHURCHILL
© 2002 Steven L. McShane

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Chapter 7: Decision Making and Creativity

Solution to “Where in the World Are We?” Team Exercise

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Chapter 7: Decision Making and Creativity

SELF-ASSESSMENT: DO YOU HAVE A CREATIVE


PERSONALITY?

Purpose
This self-assessment is designed to help you to measure the extent to which you have a creative personality.

Overview and Instructions


This instrument estimates the student’s creative potential as a personal characteristic. The scale recognizes that creative
people are intelligent, persistent, and possess an inventive thinking style. Creative disposition varies somewhat from
one occupational group to the next.
This self-assessment consists of an adjective checklist with 30 words. Students are asked to put a mark in the box
beside the words that they think accurately describe them. They MUST NOT mark the boxes for words that do not
describe them. Students need to be honest with themselves to receive a reasonable estimate of their creative
personality.

Feedback for the Creative Personality Measure


The table on the right (and applied to the graph in the student CD) is based on norms for undergraduate and graduate
university students in the United States. Scores range from –12 to +18. People with higher scores have a higher creative
personality.

Score Interpretation

+10 to +18 High creative personality


+1 to +9 Average creative personality
-12 to 0 Low creative personality

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document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part.
Another random document with
no related content on Scribd:
man in evening dress, with a ledger before him. The new arrival shut
the door carefully after him; it clicked to, on a spring-lock. Advancing
to the desk, he announced, "Number Twenty-one, sir," and stood
respectfully waiting. The big man looked up, showing the number 1
startlingly white on his velvet mask. His eyes, of a curious hard blue,
scanned Rogers attentively. At a sign from him, Rogers removed his
mask. Having verified his identity with care, the President said, "Very
well, Number Twenty-one," and made an entry in the ledger. The
voice was hard and metallic, like his eyes. The close scrutiny from
behind the immovable black mask seemed to make Rogers uneasy;
he shifted his feet, and his eyes fell. Number One made a sign of
dismissal, and Rogers, with a faint sigh as though of relief, replaced
his mask and left the room. As he came out, the next comer passed
in in his place.
The room in which the Society met was a large one, made by
knocking the two largest of the first-floor rooms into one. It was
furnished in the standardised taste of twentieth-century suburbia and
brilliantly lighted. A gramophone in one corner blared out a jazz tune,
to which about ten couples of masked men and women were
dancing, some in evening dress and others in tweeds and jumpers.
In one corner of the room was an American bar. Rogers went up and
asked the masked man in charge for a double whisky. He consumed
it slowly, leaning on the bar. The room filled. Presently somebody
moved across to the gramophone and stopped it. He looked round.
Number One had appeared on the threshold. A tall woman in black
stood beside him. The mask, embroidered with a white 2, covered
hair and face completely; only her fine bearing and her white arms
and bosom and the dark eyes shining through the eye-slits
proclaimed her a woman of power and physical attraction.
"Ladies and gentlemen." Number One was standing at the upper end
of the room. The woman sat beside him; her eyes were cast down
and betrayed nothing, but her hands were clenched on the arms of
the chair and her whole figure seemed tensely aware.
"Ladies and gentlemen. Our numbers are two short to-night." The
masks moved; eyes were turned, seeking and counting. "I need not
inform you of the disastrous failure of our plan for securing the plans
of the Court-Windlesham helicopter. Our courageous and devoted
comrades, Number Fifteen and Number Forty-eight, were betrayed
and taken by the police."
An uneasy murmur rose among the company.
"It may have occurred to some of you that even the well-known
steadfastness of these comrades might give way under examination.
There is no cause for alarm. The usual orders have been issued,
and I have this evening received the report that their tongues have
been effectually silenced. You will, I am sure, be glad to know that
these two brave men have been spared the ordeal of so great a
temptation to dishonour, and that they will not be called upon to face
a public trial and the rigours of a long imprisonment."
A hiss of intaken breath moved across the assembled members like
the wind over a barley-field.
"Their dependants will be discreetly compensated in the usual
manner. I call upon Numbers Twelve and Thirty-four to undertake
this agreeable task. They will attend me in my office for their
instructions after the meeting. Will the Numbers I have named kindly
signify that they are able and willing to perform this duty?"
Two hands were raised in salute. The President continued, looking at
his watch:
"Ladies and gentlemen, please take your partners for the next
dance."
The gramophone struck up again. Rogers turned to a girl near him in
a red dress. She nodded, and they slipped into the movement of a
fox-trot. The couples gyrated solemnly and in silence. Their shadows
were flung against the blinds as they turned and stepped to and fro.
"What has happened?" breathed the girl in a whisper, scarcely
moving her lips. "I'm frightened, aren't you? I feel as if something
awful was going to happen."
"It does take one a bit short, the President's way of doing things,"
agreed Rogers, "but it's safer like that."
"Those poor men——"
A dancer, turning and following on their heels, touched Rogers on
the shoulder.
"No talking, please," he said. His eyes gleamed sternly; he twirled
his partner into the middle of the crowd and was gone. The girl
shuddered.
The gramophone stopped. There was a burst of clapping. The
dancers again clustered before the President's seat.
"Ladies and gentlemen. You may wonder why this extraordinary
meeting has been called. The reason is a serious one. The failure of
our recent attempt was no accident. The police were not on the
premises that night by chance. We have a traitor among us."
Partners who had been standing close together fell distrustfully
apart. Each member seemed to shrink, as a snail shrinks from the
touch of a finger.
"You will remember the disappointing outcome of the Dinglewood
affair," went on the President, in his harsh voice. "You may recall
other smaller matters which have not turned out satisfactorily. All
these troubles have been traced to their origin. I am happy to say
that our minds can now be easy. The offender has been discovered
and will be removed. There will be no more mistakes. The misguided
member who introduced the traitor to our Society will be placed in a
position where his lack of caution will have no further ill-effects.
There is no cause for alarm."
Every eye roved about the company, searching for the traitor and his
unfortunate sponsor. Somewhere beneath the black masks a face
must have turned white; somewhere under the stifling velvet there
must have been a brow sweating, not with the heat of the dance. But
the masks hid everything.
"Ladies and gentlemen, please take your partners for the next
dance."
The gramophone struck into an old and half-forgotten tune: "There
ain't nobody loves me." The girl in red was claimed by a tall mask in
evening dress. A hand laid on Roger's arm made him start. A small,
plump woman in a green jumper slipped a cold hand into his. The
dance went on.
When it stopped, amid the usual applause, everyone stood,
detached, stiffened in expectation. The President's voice was raised
again.
"Ladies and gentlemen, please behave naturally. This is a dance, not
a public meeting."
Rogers led his partner to a chair and fetched her an ice. As he
stooped over her, he noticed the hurried rise and fall of her bosom.
"Ladies and gentlemen." The endless interval was over. "You will no
doubt wish to be immediately relieved from suspense. I will name the
persons involved. Number Thirty-seven!"
A man sprang up with a fearful, strangled cry.
"Silence!"
The wretch choked and gasped.
"I never—I swear I never—I'm innocent."
"Silence. You have failed in discretion. You will be dealt with. If you
have anything to say in defence of your folly, I will hear it later. Sit
down."
Number Thirty-seven sank down upon a chair. He pushed his
handkerchief under the mask to wipe his face. Two tall men closed in
upon him. The rest fell back, feeling the recoil of humanity from one
stricken by mortal disease.
The gramophone struck up.
"Ladies and gentlemen, I will now name the traitor. Number Twenty-
one, stand forward."
Rogers stepped forward. The concentrated fear and loathing of forty-
eight pairs of eyes burned upon him. The miserable Jukes set up a
fresh wail.
"Oh, my God! Oh, my God!"
"Silence! Number Twenty-one, take off your mask."
The traitor pulled the thick covering from his face. The intense hatred
of the eyes devoured him.
"Number Thirty-seven, this man was introduced here by you, under
the name of Joseph Rogers, formerly second footman in the service
of the Duke of Denver, dismissed for pilfering. Did you take steps to
verify that statement?"
"I did—I did! As God's my witness, it was all straight. I had him
identified by two of the servants. I made enquiries. The tale was
straight—I'll swear it was."
The President consulted a paper before him, then he looked at his
watch again.
"Ladies and gentlemen, please take your partners...."
Number Twenty-one, his arms twisted behind him and bound, and
his wrists hand-cuffed, stood motionless, while the dance of doom
circled about him. The clapping, as it ended, sounded like the
clapping of the men and women who sat, thirsty-lipped, beneath the
guillotine.
"Number Twenty-one, your name has been given as Joseph Rogers,
footman, dismissed for theft. Is that your real name?"
"No."
"What is your name?"
"Peter Death Bredon Wimsey."
"We thought you were dead."
"Naturally. You were intended to think so."
"What has become of the genuine Joseph Rogers?"
"He died abroad. I took his place. I may say that no real blame
attaches to your people for not having realised who I was. I not only
took Roger's place; I was Rogers. Even when I was alone, I walked
like Rogers, I sat like Rogers, I read Rogers's books, and wore
Rogers's clothes. In the end, I almost thought Rogers's thoughts.
The only way to keep up a successful impersonation is never to
relax."
"I see. The robbery of your own flat was arranged?"
"Obviously."
"The robbery of the Dowager Duchess, your mother, was connived
at by you?"
"It was. It was a very ugly tiara—no real loss to anybody with decent
taste. May I smoke, by the way?"
"You may not. Ladies and gentlemen...."
The dance was like the mechanical jigging of puppets. Limbs jerked,
feet faltered. The prisoner watched with an air of critical detachment.
"Numbers Fifteen, Twenty-two and Forty-nine. You have watched the
prisoner. Has he made any attempts to communicate with anybody?"
"None." Number Twenty-two was the spokesman. "His letters and
parcels have been opened, his telephone tapped, and his
movements followed. His water-pipes have been under observation
for Morse signals."
"You are sure of what you say?"
"Absolutely."
"Prisoner, have you been alone in this adventure? Speak the truth,
or things will be made somewhat more unpleasant for you than they
might otherwise be."
"I have been alone. I have taken no unnecessary risks."
"It may be so. It will, however, be as well that steps should be taken
to silence the man at Scotland Yard—what is his name?—Parker.
Also the prisoner's manservant, Mervyn Bunter, and possibly also his
mother and sister. The brother is a stupid oaf, and not, I think, likely
to have been taken into the prisoner's confidence. A precautionary
watch will, I think, meet the necessities of his case."
The prisoner appeared, for the first time, to be moved.
"Sir, I assure you that my mother and sister know nothing which
could possibly bring danger on the Society."
"You should have thought of their situation earlier. Ladies and
gentlemen, please take——"
"No—no!" Flesh and blood could endure the mockery no longer. "No!
Finish with him. Get it over. Break up the meeting. It's dangerous.
The police——"
"Silence!"
The President glanced round at the crowd. It had a dangerous look
about it. He gave way.
"Very well. Take the prisoner away and silence him. He will receive
Number 4 treatment. And be sure you explain it to him carefully first."
"Ah!"
The eyes expressed a wolfish satisfaction. Strong hands gripped
Wimsey's arms.
"One moment—for God's sake let me die decently."
"You should have thought this over earlier. Take him away. Ladies
and gentlemen, be satisfied—he will not die quickly."
"Stop! Wait!" cried Wimsey desperately. "I have something to say. I
don't ask for life—only for a quick death. I—I have something to sell."
"To sell?"
"Yes."
"We make no bargains with traitors."
"No—but listen! Do you think I have not thought of this? I am not so
mad. I have left a letter."
"Ah! now it is coming. A letter. To whom?"
"To the police. If I do not return to-morrow——"
"Well?"
"The letter will be opened."
"Sir," broke in Number Fifteen. "This is bluff. The prisoner has not
sent any letter. He has been strictly watched for many months."
"Ah! but listen. I left the letter before I came to Lambeth."
"Then it can contain no information of value."
"Oh, but it does."
"What?"
"The combination of my safe."
"Indeed? Has this man's safe been searched?"
"Yes, sir."
"What did it contain?"
"No information of importance, sir. An outline of our organisation—
the name of this house—nothing that cannot be altered and covered
before morning."
Wimsey smiled.
"Did you investigate the inner compartment of the safe?"
There was a pause.
"You hear what he says," snapped the President sharply. "Did you
find this inner compartment?"
"There was no inner compartment, sir. He is trying to bluff."
"I hate to contradict you," said Wimsey, with an effort at his ordinary
pleasant tone, "but I really think you must have overlooked the inner
compartment."
"Well," said the President, "and what do you say is in this inner
compartment, if it does exist?"
"The names of every member of this Society, with their addresses,
photographs, and finger-prints."
"What?"
The eyes round him now were ugly with fear. Wimsey kept his face
steadily turned towards the President.
"How do you say you have contrived to get this information?"
"Well, I have been doing a little detective work on my own, you
know."
"But you have been watched."
"True. The finger-prints of my watchers adorn the first page of the
collection."
"This statement can be proved?"
"Certainly. I will prove it. The name of Number Fifty, for example——"
"Stop!"
A fierce muttering arose. The President silenced it with a gesture.
"If you mention names here, you will certainly have no hope of
mercy. There is a fifth treatment—kept specially for people who
mention names. Bring the prisoner to my office. Keep the dance
going."
The President took an automatic from his hip-pocket and faced his
tightly fettered prisoner across the desk.
"Now speak!" he said.
"I should put that thing away, if I were you," said Wimsey
contemptuously. "It would be a much pleasanter form of death than
treatment Number 5, and I might be tempted to ask for it."
"Ingenious," said the President, "but a little too ingenious. Now, be
quick; tell me what you know."
"Will you spare me if I tell you?"
"I make no promises. Be quick."
Wimsey shrugged his bound and aching shoulders.
"Certainly. I will tell you what I know. Stop me when you have heard
enough."
He leaned forward and spoke low. Overhead the noise of the
gramophone and the shuffling of feet bore witness that the dance
was going on. Stray passers-by crossing the Heath noted that the
people in the lonely house were making a night of it again.

"Well," said Wimsey, "am I to go on?"


From beneath the mask the President's voice sounded as though he
were grimly smiling.
"My lord," he said, "your story fills me with regret that you are not, in
fact, a member of our Society. Wit, courage, and industry are
valuable to an association like ours. I fear I cannot persuade you?
No—I supposed not."
He touched a bell on his desk.
"Ask the members kindly to proceed to the supper-room," he said to
the mask who entered.
The "supper-room" was on the ground-floor, shuttered and curtained.
Down its centre ran a long, bare table, with chairs set about it.
"A Barmecide feast, I see," said Wimsey pleasantly. It was the first
time he had seen this room. At the far end, a trap-door in the floor
gaped ominously.
The President took the head of the table.
"Ladies and gentlemen," he began, as usual—and the foolish
courtesy had never sounded so sinister—"I will not conceal from you
the seriousness of the situation. The prisoner has recited to me more
than twenty names and addresses which were thought to be
unknown, except to their owners and to me. There has been great
carelessness"—his voice rang harshly—"which will have to be
looked into. Finger-prints have been obtained—he has shown me
the photographs of some of them. How our investigators came to
overlook the inner door of this safe is a matter which calls for
enquiry."
"Don't blame them," put in Wimsey. "It was meant to be overlooked,
you know. I made it like that on purpose."
The President went on, without seeming to notice the interruption.
"The prisoner informs me that the book with the names and
addresses is to be found in this inner compartment, together with
certain letters and papers stolen from the houses of members, and
numerous objects bearing authentic finger-prints. I believe him to be
telling the truth. He offers the combination of the safe in exchange
for a quick death. I think the offer should be accepted. What is your
opinion, ladies and gentlemen?"
"The combination is known already," said Number Twenty-two.
"Imbecile! This man has told us, and has proved to me, that he is
Lord Peter Wimsey. Do you think he will have forgotten to alter the
combination? And then there is the secret of the inner door. If he
disappears to-night and the police enter his house——"
"I say," said a woman's rich voice, "that the promise should be given
and the information used—and quickly. Time is getting short."
A murmur of agreement went round the table.
"You hear," said the President, addressing Wimsey. "The Society
offers you the privilege of a quick death in return for the combination
of the safe and the secret of the inner door."
"I have your word for it?"
"You have."
"Thank you. And my mother and sister?"
"If you in your turn will give us your word—you are a man of honour
—that these women know nothing that could harm us, they shall be
spared."
"Thank you, sir. You may rest assured, upon my honour, that they
know nothing. I should not think of burdening any woman with such
dangerous secrets—particularly those who are dear to me."
"Very well. It is agreed—yes?"
The murmur of assent was given, though with less readiness than
before.
"Then I am willing to give you the information you want. The word of
the combination is UNRELIABILITY."
"And the inner door?"
"In anticipation of the visit of the police, the inner door—which might
have presented difficulties—is open."
"Good! You understand that if the police interfere with our
messenger——"
"That would not help me, would it?"
"It is a risk," said the President thoughtfully, "but a risk which I think
we must take. Carry the prisoner down to the cellar. He can amuse
himself by contemplating apparatus Number 5. In the meantime,
Numbers Twelve and Forty-six——"
"No, no!"
A sullen mutter of dissent arose and swelled threateningly.
"No," said a tall man with a voice like treacle. "No—why should any
members be put in possession of this evidence? We have found one
traitor among us to-night and more than one fool. How are we to
know that Numbers Twelve and Forty-six are not fools and traitors
also?"
The two men turned savagely upon the speaker, but a girl's voice
struck into the discussion, high and agitated.
"Hear, hear! That's right, I say. How about us? We ain't going to have
our names read by somebody we don't know nothing about. I've had
enough of this. They might sell the 'ole lot of us to the narks."
"I agree," said another member. "Nobody ought to be trusted,
nobody at all."
The President shrugged his shoulders.
"Then what, ladies and gentlemen, do you suggest?"
There was a pause. Then the same girl shrilled out again:
"I say Mr. President oughter go himself. He's the only one as knows
all the names. It won't be no cop to him. Why should we take all the
risk and trouble and him sit at home and collar the money? Let him
go himself, that's what I say."
A long rustle of approbation went round the table.
"I second that motion," said a stout man who wore a bunch of gold
seals at his fob. Wimsey smiled as he looked at the seals; it was that
trifling vanity which had led him directly to the name and address of
the stout man, and he felt a certain affection for the trinkets on that
account.
The President looked round.
"It is the wish of the meeting, then, that I should go?" he said, in an
ominous voice.
Forty-five hands were raised in approbation. Only the woman known
as Number Two remained motionless and silent, her strong white
hands clenched on the arm of the chair.
The President rolled his eyes slowly round the threatening ring till
they rested upon her.
"Am I to take it that this vote is unanimous?" he enquired.
The woman raised her head.
"Don't go," she gasped faintly.
"You hear," said the President, in a faintly derisive tone. "This lady
says, don't go."
"I submit that what Number Two says is neither here nor there," said
the man with the treacly voice. "Our own ladies might not like us to
be going, if they were in madam's privileged position." His voice was
an insult.
"Hear, hear!" cried another man. "This is a democratic society, this is.
We don't want no privileged classes."
"Very well," said the President. "You hear, Number Two. The feeling
of the meeting is against you. Have you any reasons to put forward
in favour of your opinion?"
"A hundred. The President is the head and soul of our Society. If
anything should happen to him—where should we be? You"—she
swept the company magnificently with her eyes—"you have all
blundered. We have your carelessness to thank for all this. Do you
think we should be safe for five minutes if the President were not
here to repair your follies?"
"Something in that," said a man who had not hitherto spoken.
"Pardon my suggesting," said Wimsey maliciously, "that, as the lady
appears to be in a position peculiarly favourable for the reception of
the President's confidences, the contents of my modest volume will
probably be no news to her. Why should not Number Two go
herself?"
"Because I say she must not," said the President sternly, checking
the quick reply that rose to his companion's lips. "If it is the will of the
meeting, I will go. Give me the key of the house."
One of the men extracted it from Wimsey's jacket-pocket and
handed it over.
"Is the house watched?" he demanded of Wimsey.
"No."
"That is the truth?"
"It is the truth."
The President turned at the door.
"If I have not returned in two hours' time," he said, "act for the best to
save yourselves, and do what you like with the prisoner. Number
Two will give orders in my absence."
He left the room. Number Two rose from her seat with a gesture of
command.
"Ladies and gentlemen. Supper is now considered over. Start the
dancing again."

Down in the cellar the time passed slowly, in the contemplation of


apparatus Number 5. The miserable Jukes, alternately wailing and
raving, at length shrieked himself into exhaustion. The four members
guarding the prisoners whispered together from time to time.
"An hour and a half since the President left," said one.
Wimsey glanced up. Then he returned to his examination of the
room. There were many curious things in it, which he wanted to
memorise.
Presently the trap-door was flung open. "Bring him up!" cried a voice.
Wimsey rose immediately, and his face was rather pale.
The members of the gang were again seated round the table.
Number Two occupied the President's chair, and her eyes fastened
on Wimsey's face with a tigerish fury, but when she spoke it was with
a self-control which roused his admiration.
"The President has been two hours gone," she said. "What has
happened to him? Traitor twice over—what has happened to him?"
"How should I know?" said Wimsey. "Perhaps he has looked after
Number One and gone while the going was good!"
She sprang up with a little cry of rage, and came close to him.
"Beast! liar!" she said, and struck him on the mouth. "You know he
would never do that. He is faithful to his friends. What have you done
with him? Speak—or I will make you speak. You two, there—bring
the irons. He shall speak!"
"I can only form a guess, madame," replied Wimsey, "and I shall not
guess any the better for being stimulated with hot irons, like
Pantaloon at the circus. Calm yourself, and I will tell you what I think.
I think—indeed, I greatly fear—that Monsieur le Président in his
hurry to examine the interesting exhibits in my safe may, quite
inadvertently, no doubt, have let the door of the inner compartment
close behind him. In which case——"
He raised his eyebrows, his shoulders being too sore for shrugging,
and gazed at her with a limpid and innocent regret.
"What do you mean?"
Wimsey glanced round the circle.
"I think," he said, "I had better begin from the beginning by explaining
to you the mechanism of my safe. It is rather a nice safe," he added
plaintively. "I invented the idea myself—not the principle of its
working, of course; that is a matter for scientists—but just the idea of
the thing.
"The combination I gave you is perfectly correct as far as it goes. It is
a three-alphabet thirteen-letter lock by Bunn & Fishett—a very good
one of its kind. It opens the outer door, leading into the ordinary
strong-room, where I keep my cash and my Froth Blower's cuff-links
and all that. But there is an inner compartment with two doors, which
open in quite a different manner. The outermost of these two inner
doors is merely a thin steel skin, painted to look like the back of the
safe and fitting closely, so as not to betray any join. It lies in the
same plane as the wall of the room, you understand, so that if you
were to measure the outside and the inside of the safe you would
discover no discrepancy. It opens outwards with an ordinary key,
and, as I truly assured the President, it was left open when I quitted
my flat."
"Do you think," said the woman sneeringly, "that the President is so
simple as to be caught in a so obvious trap? He will have wedged
open that inner door undoubtedly."
"Undoubtedly, madame. But the sole purpose of that outer inner
door, if I may so express myself, is to appear to be the only inner
door. But hidden behind the hinge of that door is another door, a
sliding panel, set so closely in the thickness of the wall that you
would hardly see it unless you knew it was there. This door was also
left open. Our revered Number One had nothing to do but to walk
straight through into the inner compartment of the safe, which, by the
way, is built into the chimney of the old basement kitchen, which runs
up the house at that point. I hope I make myself clear?"
"Yes, yes—get on. Make your story short."
Wimsey bowed, and, speaking with even greater deliberation than
ever, resumed:
"Now, this interesting list of the Society's activities, which I have had
the honour of compiling, is written in a very large book—bigger,
even, than Monsieur le Président's ledger which he uses downstairs.
(I trust, by the way, madame, that you have borne in mind the
necessity of putting that ledger in a safe place. Apart from the risk of
investigation by some officious policeman, it would be inadvisable
that any junior member of the Society should get hold of it. The
feeling of the meeting would, I fancy, be opposed to such an
occurrence.)"
"It is secure," she answered hastily. "Mon dieu! get on with your
story."
"Thank you—you have relieved my mind. Very good. This big book
lies on a steel shelf at the back of the inner compartment. Just a
moment. I have not described this inner compartment to you. It is six
feet high, three feet wide, and three feet deep. One can stand up in it
quite comfortably, unless one is very tall. It suits me nicely—as you
may see, I am not more than five feet eight and a half. The President
has the advantage of me in height; he might be a little cramped, but
there would be room for him to squat if he grew tired of standing. By
the way, I don't know if you know it, but you have tied me up rather
tightly."
"I would have you tied till your bones were locked together. Beat him,
you! He is trying to gain time."
"If you beat me," said Wimsey, "I'm damned if I'll speak at all. Control
yourself, madame; it does not do to move hastily when your king is in
check."
"Get on!' she cried again, stamping with rage.
"Where was I? Ah! the inner compartment. As I say, it is a little snug
—the more so that it is not ventilated in any way. Did I mention that
the book lay on a steel shelf?"
"You did."
"Yes. The steel shelf is balanced on a very delicate concealed
spring. When the weight of the book—a heavy one, as I said—is
lifted, the shelf rises almost imperceptibly. In rising it makes an
electrical contact. Imagine to yourself, madame; our revered
President steps in—propping the false door open behind him—he
sees the book—quickly he snatches it up. To make sure that it is the
right one, he opens it—he studies the pages. He looks about for the
other objects I have mentioned, which bear the marks of finger-
prints. And silently, but very, very quickly—you can imagine it, can
you not?—the secret panel, released by the rising of the shelf, leaps
across like a panther behind him. Rather a trite simile, but apt, don't
you think?"
"My God! oh, my God!" Her hand went up as though to tear the
choking mask from her face. "You—you devil—devil! What is the
word that opens the inner door? Quick! I will have it torn out of you—
the word!"
"It is not a hard word to remember, madame—though it has been
forgotten before now. Do you recollect, when you were a child, being
told the tale of 'Ali Baba and the Forty Thieves'? When I had that
door made, my mind reverted, with rather a pretty touch of
sentimentality, in my opinion, to the happy hours of my childhood.
The words that open the door are—'Open Sesame'."
"Ah! How long can a man live in this devil's trap of yours?"
"Oh," said Wimsey cheerfully, "I should think he might hold out a few
hours if he kept cool and didn't use up the available oxygen by
shouting and hammering. If we went there at once, I dare say we
should find him fairly all right."
"I shall go myself. Take this man and—do your worst with him. Don't
finish him till I come back. I want to see him die!"
"One moment," said Wimsey, unmoved by this amiable wish. "I think
you had better take me with you."
"Why—why?"
"Because, you see, I'm the only person who can open the door."
"But you have given me the word. Was that a lie?"
"No—the word's all right. But, you see, it's one of these new-style
electric doors. In fact, it's really the very latest thing in doors. I'm
rather proud of it. It opens to the words 'Open Sesame' all right—but
to my voice only."
"Your voice? I will choke your voice with my own hands. What do you
mean—your voice only?"
"Just what I say. Don't clutch my throat like that, or you may alter my
voice so that the door won't recognise it. That's better. It's apt to be
rather pernickety about voices. It got stuck up for a week once, when
I had a cold and could only implore it in a hoarse whisper. Even in
the ordinary way, I sometimes have to try several times before I hit
on the exact right intonation."
She turned and appealed to a short, thick-set man standing beside
her.
"Is this true? Is it possible?"
"Perfectly, ma'am, I'm afraid," said the man civilly. From his voice
Wimsey took him to be a superior workman of some kind—probably
an engineer.
"Is it an electrical device? Do you understand it?"
"Yes, ma'am. It will have a microphone arrangement somewhere,
which converts the sound into a series of vibrations controlling an
electric needle. When the needle has traced the correct pattern, the
circuit is completed and the door opens. The same thing can be
done by light vibrations equally easily."
"Couldn't you open it with tools?"
"In time, yes, ma'am. But only by smashing the mechanism, which is
probably well protected."
"You may take that for granted," interjected Wimsey reassuringly.
She put her hands to her head.
"I'm afraid we're done in," said the engineer, with a kind of respect in
his tone for a good job of work.
"No—wait! Somebody must know—the workmen who made this
thing?"
"In Germany," said Wimsey briefly.
"Or—yes, yes, I have it—a gramophone. This—this—he—shall be
made to say the word for us. Quick—how can it be done?"
"Not possible, ma'am. Where should we get the apparatus at half-
past three on a Sunday morning? The poor gentleman would be
dead long before——"
There was a silence, during which the sounds of the wakening day
came through the shuttered windows. A motor-horn sounded
distantly.
"I give in," she said. "We must let him go. Take the ropes off him. You
will free him, won't you?" she went on, turning piteously to Wimsey.
"Devil as you are, you are not such a devil as that! You will go
straight back and save him!"
"Let him go, nothing!" broke in one of the men. "He doesn't go to
peach to the police, my lady, don't you think it. The President's done
in, that's all, and we'd all better make tracks while we can. It's all up,
boys. Chuck this fellow down the cellar and fasten him in, so he can't
make a row and wake the place up. I'm going to destroy the ledgers.
You can see it done if you don't trust me. And you, Thirty, you know
where the switch is. Give us a quarter of an hour to clear, and then
you can blow the place to glory."
"No! You can't go—you can't leave him to die—your President—your
leader—my—I won't let it happen. Set this devil free. Help me, one
of you, with the ropes——"

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