2024 Onshore wind

O&M technology
outlook

April 2024
2024 Onshore wind O&M technology outlook

Contents
1 Executive summary

2 Industry mergers and acquisitions

3 Digital technology wind O&M solutions

4 Asset management wind market opportunities

5 Emerging technologies for wind service maintenance

6 Methodology

2
Executive summary

3
2024 Onshore wind O&M technology outlook

Executive summary Asset management technology spend by type

Opportunity and growth USD billion
• Annual spend on asset management technology will grow by 5% per 3.0 2.8
year on average over the next ten years, driven by large utilities and Enterprise resources planning (ERP)
2.5
IPPs, to reach US$ 2.8 billion by 2033. Digital Twins
2.0 1.7
• China’s market share of asset management technology will increase by Asset performance management (APM)
4% over the next ten years, driven by government support for AI (artificial 1.5 Autonomous repair

intelligence), robotics and big data. 1.0 Autonomous inspections

Real-time component monitoring (hardware)
Market activity 0.5
Real-time component monitoring (software)
• Strategic consolidation is ongoing – pairing digital platforms with service 0.0
companies is creating vertically integrated service providers. 2023 2033

• Leading O&M providers are looking towards technology-driven solutions Asset management technology spend by region
to add value and expand the scope of their offering. USD billion
Major segments’ spending 2.8
3.0
• Technologies driven by AI functionality (ERP and APM) are now a crucial North America
2.5
part of most maintenance strategies, with a total annual spend expected Latin America

to reach just under US$ 2 billion by 2033. 2.0 Middle East and Africa
1.7
Europe
• Drones, robots and other technologies are transforming service 1.5
Asia-Pacific excluding China
strategies. Autonomous inspection spend is expected to increase by 63% 1.0 China
between 2023 and 2033, one of the highest growth rates of asset
0.5
management technologies.
0.0
2023 2033 Source: Wood Mackenzie 4
Industry mergers and
acquisitions (M&A)

5
2024 Onshore wind O&M technology outlook

Many digital technology providers are cementing their position in the wind O&M market
Selection of onshore wind O&M digital technology partnerships, agreements and new tech, 2019 to 2024

ONYX and Nearthlab form partnership NTR rolls out Epsiline’s WindEagle
to deliver predictive maintenance software across its wind farms in
solutions in North America. Ireland, UK, Italy, Sweden and
Finland.
Bp deploys the Power Factors Drive
Plus software across its US wind RES developed ReLacs in the UK,
portfolio. which modernizes turbines controllers
and site monitoring processes.

Vancouver-based Clir Renewables Sulzer & Schmid partners with

develops a software that uses machine FairWind, FaroWind and ROBUR to
learning to detect underperforming inspect 4 GW of Vestas turbine blades
turbines. across 14 European countries.

Clobotics and local ISP ArthWind BAM ad LATODA release technology

partner to inspect turbines across which uses thermography and AI to
Brazil using drone-based system. detect damage on turbine rotor blades.

Natural Power awards Kongsberg Enel awarded Perceptual Robotics Nearthlab and Powercurve sign MOU EDF Renewables awards Sennan with
Digital with an asset performance with a contract to process blade to integrate their products with the aim turbine analysis software contract for its
monitoring contract for its global fleet. inspection data across its global wind of optimizing global wind O&M. global 10 GW wind portfolio.
fleet.

Source: Wood Mackenzie. Non-exhaustive, digital-focused agreements,

Partnership Agreement Market entry/ new tech
partnerships and new tech development. 6
2024 Onshore wind O&M technology outlook

Private equities (PEs) continue to show interest in the renewables O&M industry, as the
global onshore wind industry grows, and O&M strategies improve
BayWa r.e. acquires Kaiserwetter’s IoT, GE launches its
asset intelligence, and data science Lifespan software,
capabilities. which offers real-time
Investors

predictive analytics on
asset performance.

(continued on
2021 2022 the following
slide)
Acquired companies

GEV merges with Wind Private Equity firm Clairvest enters the solar industry by
Power LAB, a provider of acquiring AlsoEnergy in 2017. In 2020 the PE expands its
After acquiring Greenbyte, 3Megawatt and
blade monitoring and portfolio through SunPower’s O&M business acquisition
Powerfactors, Oaktree Capital
machine learning services. and creates NovaSource – focused on solar O&M.
successfully sold off its renewables portfolio
to another PE - Vista Equity Partners.

Source: Wood Mackenzie. Non-exhaustive, digital-focused M&As. For the complete list of renewables service industry M&A, please refer to Global Storage Wind
onshore wind power operations and maintenance (O&M) 2023
Solar Private Equity
2024 Onshore wind O&M technology outlook

Renewable service providers are increasingly moving to offer multi-technology

solutions across the industry
Vestas launches
BladeRobots, a
standalone AI-assisted
Investors

blade leading edge

maintenance company.

(continued from (continued on the

the previous slide) 2023
following slide)
Acquired companies

AlsoEnergy was sold to STEM in 2022

and in the same year an investment is
made in the solar inspection company Zeitview, formerly known as Dronebase, acquires
Heliolytics. Further investment focusing Fluence, (US AES Corp + Siemens), solar inspection company Heliolytics from
on wind digital solutions is likely to happen acquires Nispera, which provides AI NovaSource. This move complements the
and machine learning-enabled SaaS company’s existing wind inspection capabilities in the
for the renewable energy sector. renewables industry.
Source: Wood Mackenzie. Non-exhaustive, digital-focused M&As. For the complete list of renewables service industry M&A, please refer to Global Storage Wind
onshore wind power operations and maintenance (O&M) 2023
Solar
2024 Onshore wind O&M technology outlook

Major leading service providers have upscaled their digital capabilities by developing
their own technologies or by partnering with high-tech startups
Vestas brings Utopus Insights
services in-house, after acquiring
the company in 2018.
Investors

(continued from
the previous slide) 2024
Acquired companies

German developer PNE acquired a
51% stake in UK-based digital firm
Bitbloom, which provides data
analytics and monitoring software.
Octopus Energy Group’s Kraken
Technologies acquired Sennen,
increasing Kraken’s contracted energy
generation and storage assets from 6.5
GW to 36 GW.
Macquarie Capital acquires ONYX
Insight which will continue to
operate as an independent business

Source: Wood Mackenzie. Non-exhaustive, digital-focused M&As. For the complete list of renewables service industry M&A, please refer to Global Storage Wind
onshore wind power operations and maintenance (O&M) 2023
Solar
Asset management
global market
opportunity

10
2024 Onshore wind O&M technology outlook

Total global serviceable onshore wind fleet will double, reaching 2 TW by 2032
Onshore wind will add more than 221 thousand turbines through 2032, equivalent to 1.2 TW of new capacity

Onshore wind cumulative capacity, 2023-2033 (GW)

GW
2,500
2,128
2,017
2,000 +8% 1,909
1,806
1,687
1,562
1,500 1,430
1,301
1,186
1,060
1,000 948

500

0
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
North America Latin America Middle East & Africa Europe Asia Pacific excl. China China

Note: Forecast based on Wood Mackenzie’s MOU Q1 2024. Cumulative onshore only net total = Cumulative onshore + repowering forecast - decommissioning

11
2024 Onshore wind O&M technology outlook

Total global spend for asset management technology to reach US$ 2.8 billion by 2033
Market growth will be boosted by new installations, which have a higher deployment rate of advanced technology
Global onshore wind spend in asset management technology by type Asset management spend by region, USD million
USD billion

4.0
2023 2033
AMER
+5% 334 575
3.0 2.7 2.8
2.5 2.6
2.3 2.4
2.2
2.0 2.1
2.0 1.8
1.7

2023 2033
1.0 EMEA
962 1,530

0.0
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Enterprise resources planning (ERP) Autonomous inspections
Digital Twins Real-time component monitoring (hardware) 2023 2033
APAC
Asset performance management (APM) Real-time component monitoring (software) 388 734
Autonomous repair
Source: Wood Mackenzie
Note: Autonomous repairs targeting category 1-3 minor correctives. AI-based autonomous inspections. Forecast
excludes retrofit spend.

12
 2024 Onshore wind O&M technology outlook

Regional differences in APM spend driven by type of ownership and number of projects
With new builds averaging 20 MW, Europe has more projects than the rest of the world combined
Regional number of projects by type of ownership, Average APM technology adoption rate by owner type
2023 and 2033

Digital Twins

Autonomous

Autonomous
,000

inspections

(hardware)

(software)
# of projects

repair

CMS

CMS
APM
ERP
11 13 8 17 49 58 2 3 0.4 1 3 4
100%

Utility
80%
IPP
Institution
60%
al Investor
Yieldco
40%
SSC&G
20% Others

C&I
0%
APeC China Europe Latin MEA North
Low adoption rate High adoption rate
America America

C&I Institutional Investor IPP Others SSC&G Utility Yieldco

Source: Wood Mackenzie
Note: SSC&G = Small scale, community and government

13
2024 Onshore wind O&M technology outlook

Europe leads the global APM market, given small size projects in the region
On top of leading global installs, the Chinese government’s support for AI, robotics, digital twins and big data
will drive the country’s APM spend by 4 percentage points over the next ten years
Global onshore wind spend in asset management technology by region
USD billion

3.5

3.0 +5% 2.8

2.7
2.5 2.6
2.5 2.4
2.3
2.2
2.1
2.0
2.0 1.8
1.7
1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033

North America Latin America Middle East and Africa Europe Asia-Pacific excluding China China
Source: Wood Mackenzie
Note: Forecast excludes retrofit spend.

14
2024 Onshore wind O&M technology outlook

Utilities and IPPs dominate the market spend for asset management technology
Technology deployment is capital intensive, and economic benefits best realised on wide-scale deployment
Global onshore wind spend in asset management technology by asset Breakdown of asset owner spend by region, USD million
owner
USD billion

3.0 2.8 2023 2033

2.7 AMER
2.6 334 575
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.1
2.0
2.0 1.8
1.7

2023 2033
EMEA
962 1,530
1.0

0.0 APAC 2023 2033

2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 388 734

Yieldco Utility SSC&G Others IPP Institutional Investor C&I

15
Emerging
technologies for wind
service maintenance

16
2024 Onshore wind O&M technology outlook

Blade repairs have become the target of digital technology, due to high cost of failure
64,000 blades are to be installed annually on average over the next decade, reaching nearly 2 million operating
blades by the end of 2033
Blades volume forecast, onshore wind

,000 # of blades ,000 # of blades

80 78 2,000
73 74 72
68 66
61 Ø 64
60 57
51 52 50

40 1,000

20

0 0
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
North America Latin America Middle East & Africa Europe Asia Pacific excl. China China
Source: Wood Mackenzie
Cumulative - global
17
2024 Onshore wind O&M technology outlook

Unplanned blade correctives will cost the onshore industry US$ 50 billion by 2032
Blades repairs, replacements, and spare parts will account for 27% of global unplanned market opportunity

Global major repairs market spend forecast, 2022- AMER, EMEA and APAC blade repair and replacement spend,
2032 (USD billion) 2022-2032 USD billion

30
28%

24 25
51%
2022-2032 20
73% 27% 18
189
(138) (51)
14 15

10 11
9 10
7 7

5
10-year global unplanned repair market spend
1
Blades repair and replacement 0
(including spare parts) APAC EMEA AMER

Note: Replacements include all crane-based work Total 10-year blade repairs and Blade full replacement Blade repairs
Source: Wood Mackenzie 2023 Global onshore wind power O&M report replacement market opportunity
18
2024 Onshore wind O&M technology outlook

Autonomous drones bring blade inspections costs down by more than 65%
Optimized costs, downtime reduction and technician safety are the three main benefits of automated inspections

Comparison of different inspection methods, time and cost Evolution of blade inspection methods
• Drones and blade crawlers can reduce costs that are typically associated with
(min./ turbine) USD/ turbine traditional inspection methods, such as rope access, wire platforms or aerial
-83% lifts. All three options are resource-intensive and limited by weather conditions
400 2,500
360 • Most leading service providers have either established partnerships with
350 drone suppliers or developed their own drone technology.
1,800 2,000 • The increased inspection accuracy autonomous technologies allow for better
300 prognostic analytics on blade repair, giving operators better preventative
maintenance flexibility.
250 1,500 • Autonomous inspection spend is expected to increase by 63% between 2023
200 -67% and 2033, one of the highest growth rates of asset management technologies.
1,000 Optimized inspection time and reduced downtime
150
601 • The inspection time dedicated to each turbine can be reduced by more than
100 80% when compared to traditional methods such as rope access.
230 60 500 • Advanced technologies that can inspect all three blades without the need to
50 86 position them vertically, are able to perform a complete turbine inspection in
-63% 20-45 minutes – six times faster than a manual inspection.
0 0
• The utilization of drones can reduce the overall inspection cost by up to 67%
Manual inspection Drone inspection per turbine once you account for labour, equipment and downtime costs.
(rope access)
• We estimate that the cost per turbine can be reduced from US$ 1.8k/WTG to
Downtime/ lost revenue Inspection cost Average inspection time US$ 600/WTG while downtime losses are reduced to nearly 65%
Note: Replacements include all crane-based work
Source: Manual inspection considers rope access. Drone inspection can be piloted or fully autonomous. Lost revenue general assumptions: 75 x 2MW WTGs, CF 32%, PPA $45/MWh

19
2024 Onshore wind O&M technology outlook

Autonomous repairs could reduce downtime losses by more than 80%

Available solutions currently limited to minor cosmetic and surface-level blade repairs only
Comparison of different blade repair methods, time and cost Blade issues continue to be one of the biggest causes of downtime
Inspection time • The projected spend on blade repairs alone reached US$ 1.7 billion in
(min./ turbine) kUSD/ turbine 2023 for the global onshore wind fleet and will rise to US$ 4 billion/ year
10.0
over the next 10 years.
700 10
• Costs per turbine are increasing due to skyrocketing equipment and
600 technician demand, raw materials price increases and real wage growth.
600
8 • Rising costs and lost revenue due to repair downtime translate to
500 significant economic impacts to asset owners.
-60% 6 Autonomous repairs technology still behind in scale usage, however
400 4.9
the benefits of deployment are clear
300 • The use case of robots for predictive maintenance is gradually picking up
240 4 as repair technology improves and service strategies evolve.
200 2.2 • Autonomous repair spending is expected to see a 125% increase
1.0 2 between 2023 and 2033, with annual spending projected to reach US$
100 89 million in the next ten years
0.2
-83% • Such technologies have proven to be highly effective for leading-edge
0 0 and surface-level repair, which accounted for 50% and 9% of total blade
Traditional minor repairs Robotic repairs repair spend in 2023, respectively
(Rope access)
• Initial CAPEX investment can be high, however, operators can expect to
Downtime/ Lost revenue Minor repairs cost make a return on investment after 6-12 months
Cost range Average repair time
Source: Wood Mackenzie
Note: Manual repair costs include material, labour and equipment. Service done by rope access. Manual inspection considers rope access. Lost revenue general assumptions: 75 x 2MW
WTGs, CF 32%, PPA $45/MWh

20
2024 Onshore wind O&M technology outlook

ERP systems are evolving to provide proactive functionality such as automated

resource management, reporting, and curtailment forecasting
Technology deployment is capital intensive, and economic benefits best realised on wide-scale deployment
Evolution of ERP systems for wind asset management
Core functionality
• Project reporting
• Human resources
• Work-order management
• Inventory management
• Basic data services
• Accounting and billing
• Documentation
management
Wind project
Next stage evolution
specific
• Proactive maintenance • Automated project control
scheduling
• Automated work-order
• Automated spare-parts dispatch (technicians,
management spares, logistics
planning)
• Warranties/O&M contract
management • Energy production
management
• Incident response (curtailment, power-price
• Financial portfolio forecasting)
consolidation • PPA administration and
configuration
• Integration with storage
ERP systems to push value creation at the project’s “edge”
• Most asset owners with large fleets already have some level of ERP
systems in place – at the most basic, ERP systems automate many back-
office functions, including reporting and accounting.
• Wind-specific vendors provide tailored ERP systems that also automate
some O&M and energy management functions, including dispatch and
incident management. Tied with APM platforms, ERPs can also help drive
operational cost efficiencies.
• Recent developments in renewables-specific ERP platforms push value
creation on the energy and revenue production side – including
developments in curtailment management, price-forecasting energy
management, and preparing asset owners for project hybridization.
• Total spend on ERP systems is expected to reach US$ 1.4 billion by
2033, accounting for 49% of annual asset management technology spend
on average over the next decade.
Massive upfront capital needed to deploy ERP systems
• Complexity and heavy data infrastructure needs of ERP systems mean
that they typically are the costliest technologies to deploy – with more
advanced systems costing more than US$ 500,000 per project, plus
ongoing software costs.
• Asset owners in Europe accounted for 78% of the total spend on ERP
systems in 2023, while asset owners in AMER and APAC accounted for
5% and 16% of total spend, respectively.

21
2024 Onshore wind O&M technology outlook

APM platforms streamline maintenance strategies, unlocking value by increasing

efficiency and reducing OPEX, resulting in a potential annual net gain of 700k US$/MW
APM platforms upscale a service provider’s predictive maintenance and remote monitoring capabilities
Net economic gain of deploying asset performance management APM platforms are rapidly growing in some markets
platforms on wind turbines • APM platforms provide three key benefits: operational cost reduction,
increased availability, and risk management improvement.
kUSD/ MW
• APM spend in the onshore wind sector is projected to increase by 70%
1 1.1 0.7 over the next decade, reaching US$ 557 million by 2033.
• By using big-data approach, APMs provide forewarning of critical
0 issues, as well as automated reporting and performance analytics,
1.7 minimizing the costs that come with unplanned maintenance and
prolonged downtime.
-1 Key barriers remain to deploying APM platforms
1.5k US$ • The deployment APM platforms in AMER and APAC has already taken
-2 off, while their use in EMEA is still low in comparison due to the
-2.0 prominence of small-scale and community asset owners.
Typical cost • APM platforms are data-heavy technology, needing key inputs from
-3 range (per SCADA systems. Many asset owners have heterogeneous fleets with
turbine) different systems and diverse data inputs.
3.9k US$ • To truly unlock the potential of APMs, key equipment technical data is
-4
also needed – which remains OEM proprietary. Some OEMs are
Infrastructure and OPEX cost Downtime Net economic
reluctant to share this data with asset owners and APM vendors.
software costs reduction Reduction gain
• Upfront costs are high, and deployment is complex as the heterogenous
Source: Wood Mackenzie nature of asset management means APM deployment needs to be
Note: 1.5% AEP improvement and 3% OPEX reduction due to deploying APM. APM failure capture rate: specifically tailored to each project’s configurations.
50%. Lost revenue general assumptions: US project, 50 x 2MW WTGs, CF 42%, PPA $45/MWh

22
2024 Onshore wind O&M technology outlook

Real time simulation platforms are expected to see the slowest growth over the next
ten years in comparison to other technologies
Lack of proven track record and uncertain value proposition continue to hamper widespread adoption
Comparison of projects with and without Digital Twins Unplanned repairs and associated spares will cost the global
AEP onshore wind industry approximately US$ 13.8 billion in 2024
(MWh/ WTG) kUSD/ WTG • Unplanned repairs and correctives caused by component failures
represent 52% of annual O&M costs in 2023.
8,000 500
+4% • Global spend on Digital Twins is expected to increase by 68% between
2023 and 2033, reaching US$135 million.
6,000 5,606 5,831 • In the U.S, failures cause an average of US$ 34k per turbine per year
in terms of repairs, spare parts, and production losses. Comparably,
252 262 the cost for a digital twin solution is between US$ 50k-150k for a single
project, depending on its size and complexity.
4,000 250
Wood Mackenzie estimates that the payback period for Digital Twins
can be up to 6 years in some cases
150k US$ • Uncertainties around the use case of digital twins, combined with a high
2,000
Typical cost range fixed cost, complex infrastructure, and limited proven case studies of
(per model) real savings, are slowing the deployment of Digital Twins.
50k US$
• Asset owners in the Americas have been particularly slow to deploy
0 0
digital twins, partly due to the need to drive down operational costs,
Project without Project with
which are higher than in China and Europe.
digital platform Digital Twins
• Rising operational costs and declines in new unit O&M contract pricing
Revenue/WTG/year MWh/WTG/year are contributing to asset owner’s budget limitations, delaying the
deployment of new technologies
Source: Wood Mackenzie
Note:. General assumptions: 75 x 2MW WTGs, CF 32%, PPA $45/MWh

23
2024 Onshore wind O&M technology outlook

Real-time subcomponent monitoring equipment with predictive analytics capability

delivers significant benefits for asset owners
Monitoring equipment technology promises to offset spend in capital repairs and spare parts
Net economic gain of deploying real-time monitoring Monitors have been proven to deliver significant improvements
equipment on rotors on a per MW per year basis in energy output
• Demand for real-time component monitoring technology will
kUSD/MW contribute to a 60% increase in annual spend between 2023 and
0.5 0.8 0.4 2033, reaching US$ 554 million within the next ten years.
• Software will account for 66% of this annual spend on average, as
0.0 operators try to use software as much as possible to avoid buying
additional hardware components – since they are more expensive
0.8 and labour-intensive.
-0.5 0.5k US$
Deployment of real-time monitoring equipment is uneconomical
for certain turbines
-1.0
1.0 • Deployment costs can reach US$ 5,000 per turbine, on top of the
Typical cost need of skilled labour for installation. This makes their use on older
-1.5 range turbines uneconomical.
(per turbine) • Unlocking the full benefits of these technologies also depends on
-2.0 the strength of the underlying analytics platforms and their ability
to process huge amounts of operational data .
-2.3
-5.0 5.0k US$
Infrastructure Capital Downtime AEP Net economic
and software repair spend reduction improvement gain
costs mitigation
Source: Wood Mackenzie
Note:. General assumptions: 75 x 2MW WTGs, CF 32%, PPA $45/MWh. 20-year lifetime, 100% early detection of issues leading to a category 4/5 blade failure

24
Digital technology
wind O&M solutions

25
2024 Onshore wind O&M technology outlook

The number of digitally focused companies in the onshore wind O&M market is
growing, increasing competition and driving innovation
Key advanced technologies (1/2) Low adoption rate/ High adoption rate/
commercial readiness commercial readiness

Product/ vendors Estimated

Commercial
Technology examples Benefits Challenges adoption
readiness
(non-exhaustive) rate*

ERP - Enterprise Resource  High upfront cost

Planning System  Optimized supply chain logistics  Limited vendors offering a
End-to end digital platform  Automated technician dispatch comprehensive solution in the wind
providing support for critical asset  Improved resource allocation space
management functions; deployed  Streamlined operations and processes  It requires the involvement of all
on a business/portfolio basis teams along the O&M value chain

 Use case still limited to “first adopters”

 Improvement of project performance
Digital Twins
 Predictive maintenance optimization
Remote simulation of a wind
 Minimises malfunctions and downtime
turbine operating under different
 Increase team’s efficiency reducing fixed
conditions
costs
 Complex infrastructure with no
standardised implementation
 Increases need for data security
 Cost economics and payback period
can be a hurdle to smaller owners
with limited resources

 Helps determine spare parts

Asset Performance requirements based on historic turbine
Management platforms failures
Wind-specific data-analytics  Increases operational cost efficiency
based platforms to help with through prognostic maintenance
energy production and plant  Reduces unplanned downtime and
operations management unnecessary routine maintenance
 Automated incident reports/ responses
 High investment costs limit its
deployment
 Need considerable work to input data
from disparate SCADA systems
 OEMs reluctant to release key
technical data to maximise APM utility

Source: Wood Mackenzie

Note: *globally
26
2024 Onshore wind O&M technology outlook

The market penetration of emerging technologies varies widely across regions and
according to the level of sophistication of the asset owner
Key advanced technologies (2/2) Low adoption rate/ High adoption rate/
commercial readiness commercial readiness
Estimated
Product/ vendors examples Commercial
Technology Benefits Challenges adoption
(non-exhaustive) readiness
rate*

 Optimized inspection time = reduced

Autonomous Inspections downtime and costs  Need for a robust IT
Drones and robot crawlers  Reduced safety risk. No weather limitations infrastructure for data
visual inspections  Accurate and detailed inspection data collection, treatment and
Crawlers for internal blade  Eliminates the need for special apparel (rope, analysis
inspections airlifts, platforms)  High capex investment
 Internal inspections: robots cover (depending on technology)
unreachable areas inside the blade

 It covers only low categories

 Optimized repair time = reduced downtime
damages (cosmetics)
and costs
Autonomous Repairs  Limited to towers and blades
 Reduced safety risk
Minor repairs performed by  Assemble time, depending on
 No need of special apparel
drones and robot crawlers* the technology
 Eliminates need for crane deployment on
 Hybrid setup: need for
minor repairs
technician intervention

Real time sub-component  Provides real-time condition monitoring which  Retrofitting costs can be
monitoring can feed inputs into an APM uneconomical, especially on
Sensor equipment attached  Can identify issues at lower category of older turbines
at key structural points on a failure that would lead to catastrophic failures  May need a powerful analytics
turbine to monitor  Can be used as dual-purpose mis-alignment platform to unlock full benefits,
mechanical performance detection which can be costly

Source: Wood Mackenzie

Note: *globally 27
2024 Onshore wind O&M technology outlook

Technology offerings along the wind O&M/ asset management value chain
Evolution of data-based approaches to drive towards maximising plant potential and automating processes
Maintenance and repair Operations Asset Management
Digital product
type Scheduled Major/minor Performance Prognostics and Inventory/ spares Workforce
Site operations Revenue stacking
maintenance correctives management pre-alarm management planning

Proactive Crane/repair Automated Automated Automated

“Smart” site
ERP System maintenance equipment plant inventory technician
controls
scheduling scheduling management management dispatch
Curtailment
Remote Automated Energy and forecasting,
Asset Performance Unscheduled
troubleshoot performance revenue integration to
Management Downtime downtime
and diagnosis optimization forecasting energy
reduction with reduction and
storage
predictive Site component
Identifies failure Lifetime Reduces need
AI and Digital maintenance failure
patterns configuration for onsite
Twins optimization forecast
optimization technicians

Automated
Robotic Repairs
repair

Autonomous Automated “Smart” site

Inspections inspections controls

Realtime Availability Component

Early-warning
subcomponent tracking/ wind condition
failure detection
monitoring assessment monitoring

Emerging approaches Established approaches

28
2024 Onshore wind O&M technology outlook

Aligning customer needs with vendor revenue risk remains a challenge

Operators are still figuring out how to deploy digital solutions, leverage all the benefits and still be profitable in
such a competitive industry
Digital vendor business models Customer types and their renewables operational strategy

Profit sharing/ Availability Some Full control

Large scale 3rd party full
operational over
guarantees IPPs scope service
flexibility operations
Business model focused on customer value creation and profit sharing
Some Full control

Customer operational risk

instead of fixed fees 3rd party full
Also referred to as outcome-based payments Utilities operational over
scope service
flexibility operations
Vendor revenue risk

Mileage price basis Some Full control

3rd party full
Developer operational over
scope service
Ability to “rent” and use cloud computing services based on usage. flexibility operations
Different pricing level is available based on megabytes used on Some Full control
analytical tasks. 3rd party full
Small scale IPPS operational over
scope service
flexibility operations
Subscription with or without upfront
cost Some Full control
Institutional 3rd party full
operational over
Monthly/annual subscription based on platform usage and scope of investors scope service
services
flexibility operations
May be combined with upfront cost related to implementation and Some Full control
customization, making annual/ monthly fees lower. 3rd party full
C&I operational over
Fees based per MW and depend on project complexity scope service
flexibility operations
Not an
Key: Operational
area of
preference
focus
29
Methodology

30
2024 Onshore wind O&M technology outlook

Key assumptions – regional split and coverage

AMER EMEA (Europe, Middle East, APAC (Asia Pacific, India,

(Americas) Africa, Russia and Caspians) China)

31
2024 Onshore wind O&M technology outlook
Key terminology
General definitions
In-house, OEM, ISP,
OEM multivendor, 3rd
Party asset owner
Blade repairs vs. blade
retrofit
In warranty vs. out of
warranty
Operations and
maintenance
Turbine lifetime
Transactional
services
Wood Mackenzie segments operating turbines by service provider type by identifying who is the primary contractor/provider for O&M services. This does not
preclude another service provider from working on the same turbine – e.g. asset owners or OEMs subcontracting work out to ISPs. However, the primary provider
is considered the main contact and contract point for O&M management and repair decisions. The 5 categories are defined as following:
• In-house: asset owners with own technicians and O&M management teams. Not including owners with O&M management teams but no technicians or
competency to service and repair own turbines
• OEM: Turbine equipment manufacturer servicing own built turbines on behalf of asset owners
• ISP: independent service providers
• OEM multivendor: OEMs servicing another manufacturer's turbines. All tier 1 OEMs conduct multivendor servicing. Wood Mackenzie defines a turbine as
under multivendor service if another OEM beside the original manufacturer is conducting the O&M
• Third party asset owner: Asset owners with in-house capability servicing another asset owner’s turbines
Blade repairs: Repair work which do not include blade removal from the turbine (traditional “up-tower” repair)
Blade retrofit: Repair or upgrade work which includes removal of blade from turbine to either upgrade components, or swap complete new blades
In-warranty: Warranty period provided as part of the OEM’s standard, new-built turbine warranty. This term does not consider periods outside the standard length,
such as in cases where a developer has negotiated extended warranty or longer term, full-wrap service agreements
Out of warranty: Turbines that have exited the original standard OEM warranty period
Wood Mackenzie defines operations and maintenance as all activities related to the continuous upkeep and repair of a wind turbine. This includes:
• Scheduled maintenance
• Remote monitoring
• Correctives
• Technical support
• Spare parts and distribution
• Upgrade work
• Balance of plant maintenance and repair
Not included is spend on land-leases, insurance, grid fees, etc.
Standard 20 years operating lifespan for turbines. Newer models now are rated for 25 or even 30 years operational
Short term (<1 year) 3rd party subcontract work. O&M work that is not done by the in-house team or the contracted O&M service provider (e.g.: blade
repair campaigns tendered by the asset owner or the main service provider to specialized companies)
32
2024 Onshore wind O&M technology outlook

Key terminology
General definitions
Enterprise resources
planning (ERP)
Asset performance
management (APM)
Digital twins
Autonomous
inspection/repair
Digital-based resources and reporting management platforms. This ranges from industrial SAP style ERPs to specifically tailored products for the wind industry.
Core functions include financial and accounting reporting, human resources management and inventory planning.
Software and data-analytics based platforms to help with energy production management, proactive maintenance approach, and automated failure identification
and response.
Also known as aero-elastic modelling. A digital duplicate of the wind turbine/farm is created, including site-specific configuration, and digitally tested under various
environmental conditions. Outputs include mechanical stresses and fatigue life.
Drone based systems using an AI to automate movement pathways inside and around a wind turbine. This includes UAVs as well as crawling robots. They are
designed to offset manual labour need, especially in high-danger situations such as confined spaces and weather events.

Realtime Otherwise known as condition monitoring systems. Subcomponent monitoring include traditional camera-based equipment, strain gauges, vibration sensors. These
subcomponent are placed on the critical mechanical junctions of major components such as gearboxes, generators and blades. More advanced forms include oil-based sensors,
monitoring acoustic monitoring, sub-surface detection.

33
2024 Onshore wind O&M technology outlook

Terminology
O&M Segmentation
Scheduled maintenance 6 month, annual or semi-annual O&M, including lubrication, gearbox oil changes, torque checks, cleaning, filter replacements. Also includes
associated technician labour and consumables

Remote monitoring Often referred to as asset management. Providing remote monitoring services and associated solutions. Large owners often self-provide,
but third party options and OEM services are available in all markets.

Minor correctives Rigging, equipment and labour for unplanned maintenance items that do not require a crane (e.g., pitch drives, yaw drives, control cards,
uptower repairs). Often performed by onsite techs.

Technical support Engineering technical support, usually provided by turbine OEM or component supplier. Often billed as a separate service. Also includes
specialized tooling, measuring and inspection services.

Spares Minor spares parts and major component replacements

Major correctives Cost of crane, rigging and labour for replacement of major components that require a crane (e.g., blades, gearboxes, generators, main
bearing, pitch bearings). Includes the cost of the crane, specialty rigging and specialized labour.

Upgrades Upgrades provided to improve energy production, reliability, or operational . Examples are partial repowering, vortex generators, MW rating
upgrades, controls upgrades and improved reliability components.

Other - BOP Overheads and balance of plant maintenance. Maintenance to substations, access roads, electrical collection systems, turbine foundations
and transmission lines. Electrical balancing charges also included

Transactional services Service and repair work provided by 3rd parties outside of a multi-year maintenance contract. Typically repair work that is contracted
on an open tender basis, or technician provision by another provider besides the maintenance contract holder to fulfil short-term labour needs

34
2024 Onshore wind O&M technology outlook
Assumptions
O&M cost model
Historical MW segmentation and future O&M projections are based upon Wood
Mackenzie’s comprehensive global project database along with the quarterly forecast
update. The development of the O&M forecasts is predicated on the following key
parameters:
1. Regional market forecasts per Wood Mackenzie’s quarterly forecast update (Q2
2023)
2. Historical turbine OEM market shares – by country
3. Projected future OEM market shares – by country
4. Known O&M contract terms – years
5. Proportion of installations per year that utilise a given O&M contract term
6. Renewal rates of OEM O&M contracts
7. Known and anticipated operational scale of ISPs and asset owners
Individual markets are assessed using Wood Mackenzie’s standard evaluation model,
which provides consistency across markets. Macro-economic conditions, regulatory and
policy framework, wind resources, permitting, and grid infrastructure developments are
some of the key indicators we use to determine regional market attractiveness. These
areas represent critical drivers or barriers for near-term wind power development, and
Wood Mackenzie analyses a number of variables that influence the condition of each
category.
Supportive data for market evaluation and market forecast models are generated by
several different industry tracking mechanisms. Continuous market monitoring of direct
and indirect influences to industry health, such as political developments and power
demand, help provide context for data obtained from developers,
manufacturers, trade associations, financial institutions, and national and international
agencies. Wood Mackenzie leverages its vast network to obtain confirmation on project
completion from developers and solicits verification by turbine vendors and grid operators
in order to ensure accuracy.
Major corrective volumes and market opportunity are estimated in each region based on
the following inputs:
 Cumulative turbines installed
 Forecast turbines installed
 Average turbine size per market
 Known drivetrain type segmentation per market
 Estimated gearbox failure rate – average across market
 Estimated high speed generator failure rate – average across market
 Estimated blade failure rate – average across market
 Estimated gearbox replacement cost, including labour and equipment – for average
turbine size
 Estimated high speed generator replacement cost, including labour and equipment –
for average turbine size
 Estimated blade replacement cost, including labour and equipment – for average
turbine size
These inputs are used to model the number of failures per year as well as the total market
opportunity for major corrective spending. Other items that may be categorized as a major
corrective that are not explicitly modelled include turbine transformers, pitch bearings,
main bearings, main shafts and yaw bearings.
35
2024 Onshore wind O&M technology outlook

Disclaimer

These materials, including any updates to them, are published by and remain
subject to the copyright of the Wood Mackenzie group ("Wood Mackenzie"),
or its third-party licensors (“Licensors”) as relevant, and are made available to
clients of Wood Mackenzie under terms agreed between Wood Mackenzie and
those clients. The use of these materials is governed by the terms and conditions
of the agreement under which they were provided. The content and conclusions
contained are confidential and may not be disclosed to any other person without
Wood Mackenzie's prior written permission. Wood Mackenzie makes no warranty
or representation about the accuracy or completeness of the information and data
contained in these materials, which are provided 'as is'. The opinions expressed
in these materials are those of Wood Mackenzie, and do not necessarily represent
our Licensors’ position or views. Nothing contained in them constitutes an offer
to buy or to sell securities, or investment advice. Wood Mackenzie's products do
not provide a comprehensive analysis of the financial position or prospects of any
company or entity and nothing in any such product should be taken as comment
regarding the value of the securities of any entity. If, notwithstanding the foregoing,
you or any other person relies upon these materials in any way, Wood Mackenzie
does not accept, and hereby disclaims to the extent permitted by law, all liability
for any loss and damage suffered arising in connection with such reliance.

Copyright © 2023, Wood Mackenzie Limited. All rights reserved.

36
2024 Onshore wind O&M technology outlook

Get to know Lens Power Learn more at www.woodmac.com/lens/power/

Integrated market intelligence to strengthen power market investment strategies

• Track more than 130K assets in a single interface across conventional power, solar, wind, storage, and
hydrogen technologies
• Screen for development sites with unique geospatial layers and filters
• Benchmark corporate asset portfolios with full transparency into the development pipeline
• Investigate power market dynamics of supply, demand, price and costs for markets and technologies
• Value assets and portfolios, flexing economic assumptions and performing sensitivity analyses
• Utilise the only 360 view of the energy transition across power, hydrogen and carbon markets
• Access a powerful API feed to connect live queries in excel, PowerBI, Tableau and more

37
2024 Onshore wind O&M technology outlook

Introducing Lens Hydrogen

A single platform to maximise opportunities across the hydrogen and ammonia value chain

• Live interactive market tracker to screen and benchmark hydrogen and derivatives globally
• Examine supply, demand, price and trade forecasts for hydrogen and ammonia by market
• Benchmark LCOH and compare midstream and conversion costs to different hydrogen carriers
• Understand full value-chain infrastructure, including manufacturing and offtakers
• Access to our research analysts and written reports covering trends, news and policy
• Powerful API feed to connect live queries in excel, PowerBI, Tableau and more

Contact murray.douglas@woodmac.com
38
2024 Onshore wind O&M technology outlook

Leila Garcia da Fonseca

Research Director
Connect with Leila

Leila Garcia is responsible for global wind and solar operation and maintenance market research
within Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables. She also leads a team of wind analysts in South and
North America.

Leila brings more than a decade of experience in the renewable energy industry. She's worked both in
mature and developing markets, from Denmark to Brazil and Mexico. Before joining Wood Mackenzie,
Leila worked as a marketing leader for Vestas, as well as marketing manager for GE Renewables Leila.Garcia@woodmac.com
in Mexico.

She is Brazilian and is currently located in Vancouver, Canada. She holds an engineering degree
from PUC University in Brazil and a Masters in renewable energy from the Carl von Ossietzky
University of Oldenburg in Germany.

39
2024 Onshore wind O&M technology outlook

Charles Coppins
Research Analyst
Connect with Charles

Charles is part of the renewable power operations and maintenance research team within Wood
Mackenzie Power and Renewables, covering global wind O&M.
He joined Wood Mackenzie in August and brings experience from his previous role as an analyst
focussing on O&M, OPEX and asset management across the oil and gas, renewables, nuclear and
new technology sectors.
Charles is based in London and graduated from the University of Kent in 2018 with a degree in Charles.Coppins@woodmac.com
Politics and International Relations.

40
Europe +44 131 243 4477
Americas +1 713 470 1700
Asia Pacific +65 6518 0888
Email contactus@woodmac.com
Website www.woodmac.com

Wood Mackenzie is a trusted intelligence provider, empowering decision-makers with unique insight on the
world’s natural resources. We are a leading research and consultancy business for the global energy, power
and renewables, subsurface, chemicals, and metals and mining industries.
For more information visit: woodmac.com

WOOD MACKENZIE is a trademark of Wood Mackenzie Limited and is the subject of trademark registrations
and/or applications in the European Community, the USA and other countries around the world.