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R e g i o n a l M o r n i n g N o t e s Wednesday, 23 August 2023

COMPANY UPDATE HOLD


Vale Indonesia (INCO IJ) (Downgraded)
Long-Term Outlook Remains Promising Despite The Risk Of Lower Nickel Prices Share Price Rp6,050
The recent developments in China’s weak economic growth and the surplus in nickel Target Price Rp6,200
output have pressured global nickel prices. Hence, we lower our 2023/24 nickel price Upside +2.5%
assumptions to US$22,600/tonne and US$21,000/tonne from US$23,200/tonne and (Previous TP Rp8,000)
US$23,200/tonne respectively. INCO’s NPAT could grow 32.2% yoy in 2023 but fall 4.9%
yoy in 2024 due to lower average nickel prices. INCO’s share divestment is still ongoing COMPANY DESCRIPTION
and expected to be finalised in 3Q23. Downgrade to HOLD with a target price of Vale Indonesia produces nickel in matte, an
Rp6,200. intermediate product, from lateritic ores at its
WHAT’S NEW integrated mining and processing facilities
near Soroako, Sulawesi.
• Average LME nickel prices are expected to be lower at US$22,600/tonne in 2023 and
US$21,000/tonne in 2024. The recent developments in China’s weak economic growth and STOCK DATA
its property sector crisis as well as the surplus in nickel output have pressured global nickel GICS sector Materials
prices. We also see a potential decline in stainless steel demand and prices as China’s
demand might decline on slower economic growth. The short-term overall outlook remains Bloomberg ticker: INCO IJ
bearish, with the market facing the largest demand-supply surplus in at least a decade. This Shares issued (m): 9,936.3
would result in lower-than-expected average nickel prices in 2023/24; hence we lower our Market cap (Rpb): 60,114.8
nickel price assumption in 2023/24 to US$22,600/tonne and US$21,000/tonne from
Market cap (US$m): 3,924.7
US$23,200/tonne and US$23,200/tonne.
3-mth avg daily t'over (US$m): 2.6
• NPAT could potentially grow 32.2% yoy in 2023 and then decline 4.9% yoy in 2024 due Price Performance (%)
to lower average nickel price expectation. We expect Vale Indonesia’s (INCO) 2023 revenue 52-week high/low Rp7,600/Rp5,775
to grow 8.4% yoy to US$1.3b with lower ASP of US$18,306/tonne. In 2024, INCO’s revenue
could shrink 4.2% yoy to US$1.2b mainly due to lower ASP of US$17,010/tonne. Meanwhile, 1mth 3mth 6mth 1yr YTD
2023/24 production would increase to 70,000mt/72,000mt respectively as production (8.3) (4.3) (11.0) (2.4) (14.8)
capacity normalises. All in all, we expect 2023 and 2024 NPAT at US$265m (+32.2% yoy) Major Shareholders %
and US$252m (-4.9% yoy) respectively, with potential net profit margin of more than 20%.
Vale Canada Limited 43.8
• Positive development progress on Bahodopi RKEF project. INCO’s Bahodopi rotary kiln Mineral Industri Indonesia 20.0
electric furnace (RKEF) project is progressing positively and expected to be operational in Sumitomo Metal Mining 15.0
2025. Early works, which also cover the office and other infrastructure, are in progress and FY23 NAV/Share (US$) 0.26
expected to be completed by Sep 23. Procurement process for gas power plant, including FY23 Net Cash/Share (US$) 0.05
liquefied natural gas (LNG) domestic supply, has also commenced. Total investment value
for the development of the Bahodopi RKEF project is around US$2.3b. PRICE CHART
• Discussions on INCO’s share divestment are still ongoing and expected to be
finalised in 3Q23. The Indonesian government requires a minimum 14% share divestment (lcy)
8500
VALE INDONESIA TBK VALE INDONESIA TBK/JCI INDEX (%)
140
from Vale Canada Limited (VCL) and Sumitomo Metal Mining (SMM) in order to extend the 8000 130
special mining permit (IUPK) which will expire on Dec 25. The share ownership composition
7500
after divestment is expected to be 34% for the Indonesian government through Mineral 120

Industry Indonesia (MIND ID), 21.2% to the public, and the rest will still be owned by VCL 7000
110
(33.4%) and SMM (11.4%). 6500
100
6000
KEY FINANCIALS 5500 90

Year to 31 Dec (US$m) 2021 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F 5000 80


60
Net turnover 953.2 1,179.5 1,278.4 1,224.7 1,253.9 40
Volume (m)

EBITDA 380.6 436.4 503.6 489.8 499.9 20

Operating profit 223.0 272.0 357.2 339.9 346.4 0


Aug 22 Oct 22 Dec 22 Feb 23 Apr 23 Jun 23 Aug 23
Net profit (rep./act.) 165.8 200.4 265.0 252.0 257.6
Net profit (adj.) 165.8 200.4 265.0 252.0 257.6
Source: Bloomberg
EPS (US$ cent) 1.7 2.0 2.7 2.5 2.6
PE (x) 23.7 19.6 14.8 15.6 15.2 ANALYST(S)
P/B (x) 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.2 Limartha Adhiputra
EV/EBITDA (x) 10.3 9.0 7.8 8.0 7.9 +6221 2993 3914
Dividend yield (%) 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 limarthaadhiputra@uobkayhian.com
Net margin (%) 17.4 17.0 20.7 20.6 20.5
Net debt/(cash) to equity (%) (23.6) (26.9) (17.9) 3.9 21.7
Interest cover (x) 160.0 n.a. 129.1 125.6 172.3
ROE (%) 7.9 8.9 10.7 9.1 8.4
Consensus net profit - - 277 258 267
UOBKH/Consensus (x) - - 0.96 0.98 0.96
Source: Vale Indonesia, Bloomberg, UOB Kay Hian

Refer to last page for important disclosures. 1


R e g i o n a l M o r n i n g N o t e s Wednesday, 23 August 2023

STOCK IMPACT NICKEL PRODUCTION FORECAST


2Q23 RESULTS (tonnes)
74,000 72,846
72,000
Year to 31 Dec (US$m) 6M23 6M22 yoy (%) 2Q23 1Q23 qoq (%) yoy (%) 72,000
70,000
Sales 659 565 16.7 296 363 -18.6 -10.2 70,000

Gross Profit 220 356 -38.1 85.5 135 -36.6 -67.5 68,000 66,615
Operating Profit 199 196 1.6 78.9 120 -34.1 -27.2 66,000
Net Income 169 150 12.0 70.4 98.2 -28.3 -15.0 64,000

Profitability 6M23 6M22 yoy (bp) 2Q23 1Q23 qoq (bp) yoy (bp) 62,000 60,960

GPM (%) 33.5 63.1 -2,966 28.9 37.2 -823 -5,109 60,000

OPM (%) 30.1 34.6 -450 26.7 33.0 -627 -623 58,000

NPM (%) 25.6 26.7 -108 23.8 27.0 -324 -135 56,000

Source: Vale Indonesia, UOB Kay Hian 54,000


2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F

• 2Q23 NPAT declined 28.3% qoq to US$70.4m. The drop in 2Q23 NPAT was driven by Source: Vale Indonesia, UOB Kay Hian
lower ASP of US$17,967/tonne (-17.1% qoq and -26.2% yoy) and milder decline in cost of
revenue at US$210m (-7.9% qoq) as fuel prices remained elevated. INCO’s 2Q23 revenue SENSITIVITY TEST ON 5% INCREASE IN VOLUME,
came in at US$296m, decreasing 18.6% qoq as ASP declined 17.1% qoq, while the nickel NICKEL PRICE, AND FUEL PRICE (VICE VERSA)
matte deliveries recorded slightly lower at 16,463 tonnes. 2023 5% chg
Base EBITDA NPAT
Vol (Tonne) 70,000 5.2% 7.4%
• 1H23 NPAT came in at US$169m (+12% yoy) on higher nickel delivery volumes of 23% LME (US$/tonne) 22,600 10.4% 14.9%
yoy). 1H23 revenue grew 16.7% yoy to US$659m, supported by more nickel deliveries of Fuel Price: (US$)
33,221 tonnes (23% yoy) in 1H23 but lower ASP of US$19,836/tonne (-5.1% yoy). INCO’s HSFO per barrel 78.0 -1.3% -1.9%
1H23 NPAT achievement accounted for 65% and 63% of our and consensus’ 2023 NPAT Diesel per liter 0.84 -0.6% -0.8%
Coal price per ton 210 -0.7% -0.9%
forecast respectively, which we consider as within our expectations as INCO’s historical Source: UOB Kay Hian
average 1H NPAT achievement is 62% of its full-year NPAT.
PROGRESS ON BAHODOPI PROJECT
2Q23 OPERATIONAL HIGHLIGHTS
6M23 6M22 yoy (%) 2Q23 1Q23 qoq (%) yoy (%)
Nickel Matte Production (t) 33,691 26,394 27.6 16,922 16,769 0.9 34.6
Nickel Matte Deliveries (t) 33,221 27,013 23.0 16,463 16,758 -1.8 21.7
Avg Realized Price (US$/ ton) 19,836 20,899 -5.1 17,967 21,672 -17.1 -26.2
HSFO volume (barrels) 921,408 445,518 107 363,865 557,543 -34.7 62.6
HSFO average price per barrel (US$) 78.7 80.6 -2.4 80.3 77.4 3.7 -8.9
Diesel volume (kiloliter) 31,485 29,211 7.8 16,244 15,241 6.6 12.6
Diesel average price per litre (US$) 0.97 0.74 31.1 0.92 1.0 -9.8 12.2
Coal volume (t) 142,535 170,955 -16.6 91,612 50,923 79.9 15.7
Coal average price per t (US$) 383 318 21 337 466 -27.6 -12.7
Source: Vale Indonesia, UOB Kay Hian

• 2Q23 energy cost declined 8% qoq on lower HSFO usage and coal prices but
increased coal usage. INCO’s cost of revenue fell 8% from US$228m in 1Q23 to US$210m Source: Vale Indonesia
in 2Q23 on: a) lower high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) usage volume of 364,000 barrels (-34.7%
qoq), and b) lower coal prices of US$337/tonne (-27.6% qoq), but offset by a 79.9% qoq FORWARD EV/EBITDA BAND
increase in coal usage to 91.6 tonnes. HSFO volume was down 34.7% qoq but increased (x )
18
62.6% yoy, mainly driven by the shift in energy usage from HSFO to coal.
16
EARNINGS REVISION/RISK 14 +2SD (12.7x )
12
EARNINGS REVISION 10
+1SD (10.9x )

Year to 31 Dec -------------- Current -------------- ------------- Previous ------------- -------------- Chg (%)-------------- Av g. (9.0x)
8
(US$ m) 2023F 2024F 2023F 2024F 2023F 2024F 6 -1SD (7.1x )
Revenue 1,278 1,225 1,280 1,336 0% -8% 4 -2SD (5.2x )
Gross Profit 395 377 403 449 -2% -16% 2
Operating Profit 357 340 351 361 2% -6% 0
EBITDA 507 493 498 511 2% -3% Aug Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar Aug
Net Income 265 252 261 268 2% -6% 18 19 19 19 20 20 21 21 21 22 22 23 23
Source: Vale Indonesia, UOB Kay Hian Source: Bloomberg, UOB Kay Hian

• Earnings revision. We revise down our forecasts on INCO’s ASP and fuel cost in 2023-24.
As a result, we now expect a 2% higher NPAT in 2023 NPAT forecast but a 6% lower NPAT
in 2024 vs our previous forecasts.
VALUATION/RECOMMENDATION
• Downgrade to HOLD with a target price of Rp6,200, based on 7.1x blended forward
2023-24 EV/EBITDA, or the stock’s -1SD to its 2023-24 forward EV/EBITDA. We downgrade
to HOLD on INCO as: a) the short-term outlook for nickel remains bearish, with the market
facing the largest demand-supply surplus in at least a decade, b) long-term nickel demand is
potentially higher on the back of more use of nickel in EV battery production, and c) potential
margin expansion on lower cost of fuel.

Refer to last page for important disclosures. 2


R e g i o n a l M o r n i n g N o t e s Wednesday, 23 August 2023

PROFIT & LOSS BALANCE SHEET


Year to 31 Dec (US$m) 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F Year to 31 Dec (US$m) 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F
Net turnover 1,179.5 1,278.4 1,224.7 1,253.9 Fixed assets 1,549.9 1,954.8 2,857.7 3,758.9
EBITDA 436.4 503.6 489.8 499.9 Other LT assets 118.5 153.0 137.3 134.6
Deprec. & amort. 164.4 146.4 149.9 153.5 Cash/ST investment 634.0 466.1 387.2 299.8
EBIT 272.0 357.2 339.9 346.4 Other current assets 355.8 407.0 380.0 383.2
Total other non-operating income 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total assets 2,658.1 2,980.9 3,762.1 4,576.6
Net interest income/(expense) 3.8 (3.9) (3.9) (2.9) ST debt 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.0
Pre-tax profit 275.8 353.3 335.9 343.5 Other current liabilities 175.0 211.8 195.4 196.1
Tax (75.4) (88.3) (84.0) (85.9) LT debt 0.0 0.0 500.0 950.0
Net profit 200.4 265.0 252.0 257.6 Other LT liabilities 128.3 158.1 150.9 152.4
Net profit (adj.) 200.4 265.0 252.0 257.6 Shareholders' equity 2,354.8 2,611.0 2,915.7 3,228.1
Total liabilities & equity 2,658.1 2,980.9 3,762.1 4,576.6

CASH FLOW KEY METRICS


Year to 31 Dec (US$m) 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F Year to 31 Dec (%) 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F
Operating 348.2 392.2 421.1 412.7 Profitability
Pre-tax profit 275.8 353.3 335.9 343.5 EBITDA margin 37.0 39.4 40.0 39.9
Tax (75.4) (88.3) (84.0) (85.9) Pre-tax margin 23.4 27.6 27.4 27.4
Deprec. & amort. 164.4 146.4 149.9 153.5 Net margin 17.0 20.7 20.6 20.5
Working capital changes (39.8) 29.1 0.0 (7.4) ROA 7.8 9.4 7.5 6.2
Other operating cashflows 23.2 (48.3) 19.2 8.9 ROE 8.9 10.7 9.1 8.4
Investing (218.1) (500.0) (1,000.0) (1,000.0)
Capex (growth) (100.0) (100.0) (99.0) (98.0) Growth
Capex (maintenance) (103.7) (400.0) (901.0) (902.0) Turnover 23.7 8.4 (4.2) 2.4
Others (14.4) 0.0 0.0 0.0 EBITDA 14.7 15.4 (2.7) 2.1
Financing (1.5) (60.1) 500.0 500.0 Pre-tax profit 25.0 28.1 (4.9) 2.2
Dividend payments 0.0 (60.1) 0.0 0.0 Net profit 20.9 32.2 (4.9) 2.2
Proceeds from borrowings 0.0 0.0 500.0 500.0 Net profit (adj.) 20.9 32.2 (4.9) 2.2
Loan repayment (1.5) 0.0 0.0 0.0 EPS 20.9 32.2 (4.9) 2.2
Others/interest paid 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net cash inflow (outflow) 128.6 (168.0) (78.9) (87.3) Leverage
Beginning cash & cash equivalent 508.3 634.0 466.1 387.2 Debt to total capital 0.0 0.0 14.6 23.7
Changes due to forex impact (2.9) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Debt to equity 0.0 0.0 17.1 31.0
Ending cash & cash equivalent 634.0 466.1 387.2 299.8 Net debt/(cash) to equity (26.9) (17.9) 3.9 21.7
Interest cover (x) n.a. 129.1 125.6 172.3

Refer to last page for important disclosures. 3


R e g i o n a l M o r n i n g N o t e s Wednesday, 23 August 2023

Disclosures/Disclaimers

This report is prepared by UOB Kay Hian Private Limited (“UOBKH”), which is a holder of a capital markets services licence and an
exempt financial adviser in Singapore.

This report is provided for information only and is not an offer or a solicitation to deal in securities or to enter into any legal relations, nor an
advice or a recommendation with respect to such securities.

This report is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the
particular needs of any recipient hereof. Advice should be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment
product, taking into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any person in receipt of the
recommendation, before the person makes a commitment to purchase the investment product.

This report is confidential. This report may not be published, circulated, reproduced or distributed in whole or in part by any recipient of this
report to any other person without the prior written consent of UOBKH. This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by
any person or any entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or any other jurisdiction as UOBKH may
determine in its absolute discretion, where the distribution, publication, availability or use of this report would be contrary to applicable law
or would subject UOBKH and its connected persons (as defined in the Financial Advisers Act, Chapter 110 of Singapore) to any
registration, licensing or other requirements within such jurisdiction.

The information or views in the report (“Information”) has been obtained or derived from sources believed by UOBKH to be reliable.
However, UOBKH makes no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of such sources or the Information and UOBKH accepts
no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage arising from the use of or reliance on the Information. UOBKH and its connected persons
may have issued other reports expressing views different from the Information and all views expressed in all reports of UOBKH and its
connected persons are subject to change without notice. UOBKH reserves the right to act upon or use the Information at any time,
including before its publication herein.

Except as otherwise indicated below, (1) UOBKH, its connected persons and its officers, employees and representatives may, to the
extent permitted by law, transact with, perform or provide broking, underwriting, corporate finance-related or other services for or solicit
business from, the subject corporation(s) referred to in this report; (2) UOBKH, its connected persons and its officers, employees and
representatives may also, to the extent permitted by law, transact with, perform or provide broking or other services for or solicit business
from, other persons in respect of dealings in the securities referred to in this report or other investments related thereto; (3) the officers,
employees and representatives of UOBKH may also serve on the board of directors or in trustee positions with the subject corporation(s)
referred to in this report. (All of the foregoing is hereafter referred to as the “Subject Business”); and (4) UOBKH may otherwise have an
interest (including a proprietary interest) in the subject corporation(s) referred to in this report.

As of the date of this report, no analyst responsible for any of the content in this report has any proprietary position or material interest in
the securities of the corporation(s) which are referred to in the content they respectively author or are otherwise responsible for.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES FOR U.S. PERSONS

This research report was prepared by UOBKH, a company authorized, as noted above, to engage in securities activities in Singapore.
UOBKH is not a registered broker-dealer in the United States and, therefore, is not subject to U.S. rules regarding the preparation of
research reports and the independence of research analysts. This research report is provided for distribution by UOBKH (whether directly
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agree that they are a major institutional investor and understand the risks involved in executing transactions in securities.

Any U.S. recipient of this research report wishing to effect any transaction to buy or sell securities or related financial instruments based on
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UOBKHUS accepts responsibility for the contents of this research report, subject to the terms set out below, to the extent that it is
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analyst account.

Refer to last page for important disclosures. 41


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R e g i o n a l M o r n i n g N o t e s Wednesday, 23 August 2023

Analyst Certification/Regulation AC

Each research analyst of UOBKH who produced this report hereby certifies that (1) the views expressed in this report accurately reflect
his/her personal views about all of the subject corporation(s) and securities in this report; (2) the report was produced independently by
him/her; (3) he/she does not carry out, whether for himself/herself or on behalf of UOBKH or any other person, any of the Subject Business
involving any of the subject corporation(s) or securities referred to in this report; and (4) he/she has not received and will not receive any
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Refer to last page for important disclosures. 42


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