Equity Research June 28, 2024

Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia

Andreas Kristo Saragih andreas.saragih@miraeasset.co.id

Cement (Overweight/Maintain)
Positive surprise on volume and bag cement price

Report summary

May 2024 cement consumption: Solid consumption growth amid marginal bag cement price adjustment
The cement industry reported strong consumption in May, with yearly growth reaching double digits, marking the highest yearly
growth in 2024. Cement volume jumped by +11.5% YoY and +79.5% MoM to 5.44mn tons in May 2024. SMGR and INTP applied
a price adjustment of around 2-3% for bag products in mid-May to cover higher input costs particularly from USD forex rate. The
adjustment was primarily made in their strong foothold areas.

5M24 sales volume: driven by bulk and Java

Cement consumption grew by +2.8% YoY in 5M24 to 5.44mn tons, driven by bulk cement and demand in Java. Bulk cement grew
by +13.7% YoY to 6.81mn tons, while bag cement volume contracted by -1.3% YoY to 15.93mn tons resulting in bulk cement
volume contribution expanded by +2.9ppt YoY to 29.9%. Java reported a higher cement consumption growth rate at +2.8% YoY
to 11.62mn tons, surpassing the growth rate in Outside Java, which was +2.7% YoY to 11.11mn tons.

Expecting positive cement consumption growth in June 2024

We estimate the positive trajectory post Eid Holiday will continue in June 2024, supported by drier weather, and acceleration in
construction activities. We estimate sales volume will be around 5.54mn tons (+1.9% MoM and +4.7% YoY) and will bring the
2Q24 volume to 14mn tons (+6.1% YoY but -1.9% QoQ), marking the second-highest 2Q number in the past five years.
Cumulatively, we estimate cement sales volume in 1H24 to grow by +2.8% YoY to 28.3mn tons.

Solid improvement from SMGR

SMGR reported domestic cement sales of 2.75mn tons in May 2024 (+7.7% YoY and +92.2% MoM), resulting in domestic market
share of 50.6% (-1.8ppt YoY but +3.4ppt MoM). Sales volume in the regional market reached 0.61mn tons (+48.1% YoY and +13.1%
MoM), contributing 18.2% of total sales volume (-2.8ppt YoY and -9.2ppt MoM). Overall, SMGR group sales volume grew to
3.36mn tons (+13.3% YoY and +70.6% MoM) and cumulatively reached 14.51mn tons (flat YoY).

Performance of INTP came in line with our expectation

INTP reported cement sales volume of 1.6mn tons (+21.4% YoY and +71.7% MoM) driven by sales volume in Java at 1.08mn tons
(+25% YoY and +80.7% MoM), followed by Outside Java at 0.52mn tons (+14.4% YoY and +55.5% MoM). The monthly market
share stood at 29.3% (+2.4ppt YoY but -1.3ppt MoM). Cumulatively, sales volume grew to 6.74mn tons (+10.4% YoY) with market
share expanded to 29.6% (+2ppt YoY).

Maintain Overweight rating with INTP remains the top pick

We are maintaining our 12-month view on the sector with an unchanged Overweight rating, given the inline sales volume, the
capability of first-tier players to manage competition, and attractive valuation. Our valuation methodology remains the same,
EV/EBITDA multiple valuation with -1SD as the target multiple. We also stick to our previous top pick of INTP, as we expect the
acquisition of Semen Grobogan will yield positive results for INTP. Downside risk: 1) the possibility of a sudden downward shock
in demand, 2) unfavorable pricing strategies, and 3) higher than expected bulk and fighting brand cement contribution.

Key investment metrics

Market cap* Last price* Target price Upside P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) ROE (%)
Company Ticker Rating
(IDRbn) (IDR) (IDR) (%) 2024F 2025F 2024F 2025F 2024F 2025F
Semen Indonesia Tbk SMGR 24,400 Buy 3,600 6,425 78.5 9.9 8.4 3.4 3.0 5.1 5.9
Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk INTP 26,965 Buy 7,325 9,150 24.9 11.9 10.7 5.1 4.6 9.0 9.3
Note: *Data as of June 27, 2024
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research estimate

Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Indonesia but not in any other jurisdiction, including the US.
PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF THE REPORT.
Cement June 28, 2024

C O N T E N T S

Cement (Overweight/Maintain) 1
May 2024 sales volume: Solid consumption growth amid marginal bag cement price a
djustment 3
5M24 volume: driven by bulk cement and Java 3
Expecting a positive MoM and YoY growth in June 2024 4
Different market share direction for SMGR and INTP 7
Maintaining an Overweight rating with INTP as a more favorable choice 9

Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research 2

Cement June 28, 2024

May 2024 sales volume: Solid consumption growth amid marginal bag
cement price adjustment
The cement industry reported strong consumption in May, with yearly growth reaching
double digits, marking the highest yearly growth in 2024. Cement volume jumped by
+11.5% YoY and +79.5% MoM to 5.44mn tons in May 2024 with the yearly growth driven
by drier weather, inclusion of Semen Grobogan, recovery in the bag market, and
acceleration in completion of infra projects. Meanwhile, the monthly growth is due to
the seasonality of Eid Holiday.

SMGR and INTP applied a price adjustment of around 2-3% for bag products in mid-May
to cover higher input costs particularly from USD forex rate. The adjustment was
primarily made in their strong foothold areas. We believe the incumbents are
maximizing the opportunity to adjust bag cement prices, considering bag cement
recorded the highest YoY growth in May 2024 at +6.9% (Jan: -2.1%, Feb: -7.6%, Mar: -
6.7%, Apr: +5.2%). Despite this anomaly, as historically ASP adjustments were taken
during solid demand in the second half of the year, we believe second-tier players will
follow this strategy as the weakening IDR impacts everyone. In addition, considering the
ASP adjustment, we project SMGR and INTP will be able to achieve the FY24 EBITDA
margin guidance of above 20%.

Java reported cement consumption growth of +12.9% YoY and +94.2% MoM to 2.91mn
tons. The Central Java region drove this growth, recording the highest yearly cement
consumption growth of +21.7% YoY to 0.71mn tons, thanks to the inclusion of volume
from Semen Grobogan. Meanwhile, Outside Java reported a lower growth rate of +9.9%
YoY and +65% MoM to 2.52mn tons with Kalimantan being the main driver in that region
to 0.48mn tons (+32.2% YoY and +80.8% MoM) thanks to the new capital city project in
Nusantara.

5M24 volume: driven by bulk cement and Java

Domestic cement consumption grew by +2.8% YoY in 5M24 to 5.44mn tons, compared
to +0.3% YoY in 4M24 and flat growth in 3M24. This growth was driven by bulk cement
and demand in Java. Bulk cement grew by +13.7% YoY to 6.81mn tons, while bag cement
volume contracted by -1.3% YoY to 15.93mn tons resulting in bulk cement volume
contribution expanded by +2.9ppt YoY to 29.9%. We attributed the expansion of bulk
cement contribution and negative bag cement volume growth to several factors,
namely, completion of infrastructure projects and weak retail purchasing power.

Java reported a higher cement consumption growth rate in 5M24 at +2.8% YoY to
11.62mn tons, surpassing the growth rate in Outside Java, which was +2.7% YoY to
11.11mn tons. We are of the view that cement consumption growth in Java was mostly
driven by the inclusion of volume from Semen Grobogan as the Central Java region
reported volume growth of +18.8% YoY to 2.83mn tons, accounted for 24.3% of sales
volume in Java. Meanwhile, cement consumption in Outside Java was driven by
acceleration in completion of infrastructure projects, with Kalimantan reporting +23.2%
YoY growth to 2mn tons, accounted for 18% of total volume in Outside Java.

All in all, the 5M24 cement consumption volume accounted for 34.6% of our FY24
estimates, relatively in line with the historical three-year run rate that range 35-38%.
That being said, we maintain our FY24 cement consumption target of 65.6mn tons as we
expect the recovery in bag cement to persist until the remainder of the year, coupled
with drier weather that will support the pace of construction activities.

Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research 3

Cement June 28, 2024

Expecting a positive MoM and YoY growth in June 2024

We estimate the positive trajectory post Eid Holiday will continue in June 2024, supported
by drier weather, and acceleration in construction activities. We also estimate that the
bag cement to report a negative monthly and yearly growth in response to the price
adjustment implemented in mid-May.

Considering the aforementioned projections, and the inclusion of Semen Grobogan

volume to ASI, we estimate sales volume in June 2024 will be around 5.54mn tons,
indicating a growth rate of +1.9% MoM and +4.7% YoY. This number will bring the
domestic sales volume in 2Q24 to 14mn tons (+6.1% YoY but -1.9% QoQ), marking the
second-highest 2Q number in the past five years. Cumulatively, we estimate cement
sales volume in 1H24 to grow by +2.8% YoY to 28.3mn tons, represent 43.1% of our FY
estimate, relatively in line with the historical five-year run rate that range 42-47%.

Table 1. Overview cement sales volume – May 2024 and 5M24 (k tons)
K tons May-23 Apr-24 May-24 MoM (%) YoY (%) 5M23 5M24 YoY (%) Run rate (%)
ID 4,876 3,029 5,436 79.5 11.5 22,129 22,739 2.8 34.6
SMGR 2,967 1,971 3,362 70.6 13.3 14,503 14,505 0.0 34.2
INTP 1,314 929 1,595 71.7 21.4 6,103 6,735 10.4 35.7

M.Share-SMGR (%) 52.4 47.2 50.6 3.4 (1.8) 51.8 49.6 (2.2)
M.Share-INTP (%) 26.9 30.7 29.3 (1.3) 2.4 27.6 29.6 2.0

Java 2,580 1,499 2,912 94.2 12.9 11,302 11,624 2.8

Outside Java 2,296 1,530 2,524 65.0 9.9 10,827 11,114 2.7

Bag 3,602 2,198 3,849 75.1 6.9 16,143 15,932 (1.3)

Bulk 1,274 831 1,587 91.1 24.5 5,986 6,807 13.7
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

Table 2. Industry cement sales volume – May 2024 and 5M24 (k tons)
K tons May-23 Apr-24 May-24 MoM (%) YoY (%) 5M23 5M24 YoY (%)
Jakarta 198 95 225 138.2 13.7 904 927 2.5
Banten 254 132 284 115.1 11.6 1,222 1,139 (6.8)
West Java 772 462 861 86.3 11.5 3,440 3,441 0.0
Central Java 585 409 712 74.0 21.7 2,380 2,829 18.8
Yogyakarta 90 47 101 115.4 12.3 380 377 (0.9)
East Java 680 355 729 105.6 7.2 2,976 2,911 (2.2)
JAVA 2,580 1,499 2,912 94.2 12.9 11,302 11,624 2.8
Western Java 1,225 689 1,370 98.9 11.9 5,566 5,507 (1.1)
Mid Java 675 456 813 78.3 20.4 2,761 3,206 16.1
Sumatera 1,076 663 1,114 68.1 3.6 4,850 4,800 (1.0)
Kalimantan 359 263 475 80.8 32.2 1,625 2,002 23.2
Sulawesi 426 306 428 39.7 0.4 2,204 2,036 (7.6)
Nusa Tenggara 280 181 347 91.4 23.8 1,310 1,490 13.7
East Indonesia 154 116 160 37.2 3.5 838 787 (6.1)
OUTSIDE JAVA 2,296 1,530 2,524 65.0 9.9 10,827 11,114 2.7
INDONESIA 4,876 3,029 5,436 79.5 11.5 22,129 22,739 2.8
Bag 3,602 2,198 3,849 75.1 6.9 16,143 15,932 (1.3)
Bulk 1,274 831 1,587 91.1 24.5 5,986 6,807 13.7
Bag portion (%) 73.9 72.6 70.8 (1.8) (3.1) 72.9 70.1 (2.9)
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research 4

Cement June 28, 2024

Figure 1. Historical monthly cement sales volume

(mn tonnes) 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

7.0

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

Figure 2. Cement sales volume per quarter Figure 3. Cement sales volume 1H vs. 2H
(mn tons) 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY (%) 1H 2H Average 2H
69.5 70.1
65.2 56.8 57.9 56.1 55.5 53.3 57.2
61.8 64.0
61.5
19.8 21.0
18.3 16.2 18.7
17.0 56.1 56.1 56.1 56.1 56.1 56.1

19.7 19.6 17.9

17.5 16.7 17.9

14.3 13.8 12.5 14.1 13.6 13.2

15.7 15.7 14.6 14.9 15.3 14.3 43.2 42.1 43.9 44.5 46.7 42.8

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

Figure 4. Java vs. Ex. Java Contribution Figure 5. Bulk vs. Bag Contribution

(%) mn tonnes (%) mn tonnes

Java (L) Ex Java (L) Volume (R) Bag (L) Bulk (L) Volume (R)
100 72 100 72

27.0 26.9 23.6 23.0 26.5 29.0

75 69 75 69
43.9 44.0 45.0 46.8 47.9 49.3
50 66 50 66

25 63 25 63

56.1 56.0 55.0 53.2 52.1 50.7 73.0 73.1 78.0 77.0 73.5 71.0
0 60 0 60
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research 5

Cement June 28, 2024

Figure 6. Java vs. Ex. Java YoY Growth Figure 7. Bag vs. Bulk YoY Growth

(%) 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 (%) 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
15 15

5
5

-5

-5
-15
Industry Industry
Java Bag
Ex Java Bulk
-15 -25
Source: Company, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Company, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

Figure 8. Cement volume 1st tier and 2nd tier Figure 9. Market share of 1st tier and 2nd tier

mn tonnes SMGR INTP Second tier Total % SMGR INTP Second tier
75 69.5 70.1
65.2 100
61.8 64.0
61.5
60
75

45
50
30

25
15

- 0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

Figure 10. Bag consumption growth in 2024 Figure 11. Cement consumption in 2Q
mn tons Volume (L) Growth (R) (%) mn tons Volume (L) Growth (R) (%)
4.0 10 15 15.0

3.5 5 14 7.5

3.0 0 13 0.0

2.5 -5 12 -7.5

2.0 -10 11 -15.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research 6

Cement June 28, 2024

Different market share direction for SMGR and INTP

SMGR reported domestic cement sales of 2.75mn tons in May 2024 (+7.7% YoY and
+92.2% MoM), resulting in domestic market share of 50.6% (-1.8ppt YoY but +3.4ppt
MoM). Sales volume in regional market, the combination of export market and the
Vietnam facility, reached 0.61mn tons (+48.1% YoY and +13.1% MoM), resulting in a
contraction in the regional cement volume contribution to 18.2% of total sales volume (-
2.8ppt YoY and -9.2ppt MoM). Overall, SMGR group sales volume grew by +13.3% YoY
and +70.6% MoM to 3.36mn tons.

Cumulatively, domestic cement sales in 5M24 declined by -1.6% YoY to 11.28mn tons,
with the domestic market share contracted to 49.6% (-2.2ppt YoY). Sales volume in the
regional market grew by +5.9% YoY to 3.23mn tons, with volume contribution of 22.3%
(-4.3ppt YoY). We attributed the solid performance in May 2024 to the drier weather that
support the pace of construction activities. In short, SMGR group’s sales volume reached
14.51mn tons in 5M24 (flat YoY) and represented 34.2% of our projection, relatively in
line with the historical three year run rate range of 36-41%.

INTP reported cement sales volume of 1.6mn tons (+21.4% YoY and +71.7% MoM) driven
by sales volume in Java at 1.08mn tons (+25% YoY and +80.7% MoM), followed by Outside
Java at 0.52mn tons (+14.4% YoY and +55.5% MoM). INTP reported positive bag cement
consumption growth in Java and Outside Java with the former grew by +11.1% YoY and
the latter by +8.7% YoY. The monthly market share stood at 29.3% (+2.4ppt YoY but -
1.3ppt MoM). The yearly market share expansion was driven by the inclusion of Semen
Grobogan as INTP’s market share in Central Java stood at 42.4% (+9.7ppt YoY but -3.6ppt
MoM). Additionally, cement volume contribution from Central Java accounted for 18.9%
of the total (+4.3ppt YoY and -1.3% MoM).

Cumulatively, INTP reported cement sales volume of 6.74mn tons (+10.4% YoY) in 5M24,
Java remains the main driver with total volume of 4.44mn tons (+15.8% YoY) and the
remaining is from the Outside Java at 2.29mn tons (+1.2% YoY). The 5M24 market share
expanded by +2ppt YoY to 29.6%. All in all, the 5M24 volume accounted for 35.7% of our
projection, compared to the historical three-year run rate range of 35-36%.

Table 3. INTP cement sales volume – May 2024 and 5M24 (k tons)
K tons May-23 Apr-24 May-24 MoM (%) YoY (%) 5M23 5M24 YoY (%)
Jakarta 117 53 127 137.8 9.0 568 529 (6.8)
Banten 115 63 126 99.8 9.7 559 530 (5.2)
WJ 347 240 420 75.2 21.2 1,618 1,724 6.6
CJ 191 188 302 60.4 57.7 743 1,232 65.9
Yogyakarta 19 16 32 95.8 68.2 65 124 90.2
EJ 74 36 71 99.4 (3.6) 285 304 6.8
JAVA 863 597 1,078 80.7 25.0 3,838 4,444 15.8
Western Java 578 356 673 88.9 16.4 2,745 2,783 1.4
Mid Java 211 205 334 63.3 58.7 808 1,356 67.9
Sumatera 155 94 150 59.8 (2.9) 709 655 (7.7)
Kalimantan 71 63 110 75.5 55.1 373 436 17.0
Sulawesi 79 59 94 57.7 18.2 441 385 (12.6)
Nusa Tenggara 110 76 125 65.3 13.4 558 607 8.9
East Indonesia 36 40 37 (7.5) 3.9 184 209 13.3
OUTSIDE JAVA 451 332 516 55.5 14.4 2,265 2,292 1.2
INTP 1,314 929 1,595 71.7 21.4 6,103 6,735 10.4
Market Share (%) 26.9 30.7 29.3 (1.4) 2.4 27.6 29.6 2.0
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research 7

Cement June 28, 2024

Table 4. SMGR cement sales volume – May 2024 and 5M24 (k tons)
K ton May-23 Apr-24 May-24 MoM (%) YoY (%) 5M23 5M24 YoY (%)
Indonesia facilities
Domestic 2,555 1,431 2,751 92.2 7.7 11,456 11,277 (1.6)
Export 283 409 459 12.3 62.4 2,424 2,577 6.3
Total 2,838 1,840 3,210 74.5 13.1 13,880 13,854 (0.2)
Vietnam facilities
Domestic 68 79 115 45.1 68.3 294 354 20.4
Export 62 52 37 (29.1) (40.0) 330 298 (9.5)
Total 130 131 152 15.6 16.9 623 652 4.6
Total SMGR 2,967 1,971 3,362 70.5 13.3 14,503 14,506 0.0
Market Share Domestic (%) 52.4 47.2 50.6 3.4 (1.8) 51.8 49.6 (2.2)
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

Figure 12. Domestic market share - SMGR

55.0 2021 2022 2023 2024

52.0

49.0

46.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

Figure 13. Domestic market share - INTP

31.0 2021 2022 2023 2024

28.0

25.0

22.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research 8

Cement June 28, 2024

Maintaining an Overweight rating with INTP as a more favorable

choice
We are maintaining our 12-month view on the sector with an unchanged Overweight
rating due to relatively inline sales volumes, the capability of first-tier players to manage
competition, and attractive valuation. We maintain our valuation methodology for
determining the fair value of SMGR and INTP, EV/EBITDA multiple valuation method with
1SD below its five-year average as the target multiple, resulting in unchanged rating and
TP for SMGR at BUY IDR6,425, and INTP at BUY IDR9,150.

We also stick to our previous top pick of INTP over SMGR, as we expect the acquisition
of Semen Grobogan will yield positive results for INTP. Downside risks to our call include:
1) the possibility of a sudden downward shock in demand, 2) unfavorable pricing
strategies, and 3) higher than expected bulk and fighting brand cement contribution.
INTP and SMGR currently trade at around 1.5SD and 2SD below their average EV/EBITDA
in the past 5 years, respectively.

Figure 14. EV/EBITDA SMGR Figure 15. EV/EBITDA INTP

(x) EV/EBITDA MEAN -1 SD (x) EV/EBITDA MEAN -1 SD

+1 SD -2 SD +2 SD 23 +1 SD -2 SD +2 SD
12

10 19

8 15

6 11

4 7

2 3
6/19 6/20 6/21 6/22 6/23 6/24 6/19 6/20 6/21 6/22 6/23 6/24
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research 9

Cement June 28, 2024

Semen Indonesia (SMGR IJ)

Income Statement (Summarized) Balance sheet (Summarized)

(IDRbn) 12/22 12/23 12/24F 12/25F (IDRbn) 12/22 12/23 12/24F 12/25F
Revenue 36,379 38,651 41,185 44,137 Current assets
COGS -25,701 -28,474 -30,156 -32,019 Cash & equivalents 6,007 6,940 7,193 7,412
Gross profit 10,678 10,177 11,029 12,118 Receivables 5,521 5,788 6,206 6,651
Opex -6,108 5,865 6,319 6,802 Inventories 5,610 5,134 5,288 5,439
EBIT 4,569 4,312 4,710 5,316 Others 1,740 1,922 2,069 2,237
Other income / (expenses) 59 174 -30 -60 Total current assets 18,879 19,783 20,755 21,738
Finance income 99 207 110 90 Non-current assets
Finance cost -1,428 -1,390 -1,270 -1,207 Fixed assets - net 57,806 56,771 55,762 54,821
Profit before income tax 3,299 3,304 3,520 4,140 Others 6,275 5,267 6,314 6,438
Income tax expenses 3,299 3,304 3,520 4,140 Total non-current assets 64,081 62,038 62,076 61,259
Non-controlling interest 134 125 143 184 Total assets 82,960 81,821 82,831 82,997
Net profit 2,365 2,170 2,462 2,880
EBITDA 7,959 7,787 8,289 9,003 Current liabilities
ST bank loans 1,274 4,895 4,943 4,993
Margin (%) 12/22 12/23F 12/24F 12/25F Account payables 8,096 8,096 8,262 8,772
Gross profit 29.4 26.3 26.8 27.5 Other current liabilities 3,691 3,121 4,809 5,042
Operating profit 12.6 11.2 11.4 12.0 Total current liabilities 13,061 16,112 18,014 18,808
Net profit 6.5 5.6 6.0 6.5 Non-current liabilities
EBITDA 21.9 20.1 20.1 20.4 Long-term financial liabilities 13,077 7,853 6,070 4,696
Others non-current liabilities 7,133 10,054 10,000 9,900
Growth (%, YoY) 12/22 12/23F 12/24F 12/25F Total non-current liabilities 20,210 17,908 16,070 14,596
Revenue -0.9 6.2 6.6 7.2 Total liabilities 33,271 34,020 34,085 33,403
Operating profit -12.7 -5.6 9.2 12.9 Shareholders' equity 45,198 43,261 43,987 44,651
EPS 1.5 -8.2 13.4 17.0 Non-controlling interests 4,491 4,539 4,760 4,943
EBITDA -7.9 -2.2 6.5 8.6 Total liabilities and equity 82,960 81,821 82,831 82,997

Cash Flows (Summarized) Forecasts/Valuations (Summarized)

(IDRbn) 12/22 12/23 12/24F 12/25F 12/22 12/23 12/24F 12/25F
Cash Flows from Op. Activities 6,896 4,044 6,253 5,565 P/E (x) 10.3 11.2 9.9 8.4
Net profit 2,365 2,170 2,462 2,880 P/B (x) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Depreciation & amortization 3,034 2,414 2,657 2,706 EV/EBITDA (x) 4.1 3.9 3.4 3.0
Change in working capital -352 210 -406 -86 EPS (IDR) 350 321 365 426
Others 1,849 -751 1,541 65 BPS (IDR) 7,360 7,080 7,220 7,346
Cash Flows from Inv. Activities -2,272 2,551 -2,749 -1,989 DPS (IDR) 152 245 257 328
Capex -2,000 -1,379 -1,647 -1,765 Payout ratio (%) 50.0 70.0 80.0 90.0
Others -271 3,930 -1,102 -224 Dividend yield (%) 4.2 6.8 7.1 9.1
Cash Flows from Fin. Activities -1,572 -5,662 -3,250 -3,357 Accounts receivable turnover (x) 6.5 6.8 6.9 6.9
Change in liabilities -4,240 -1,603 -1,734 -1,325 Inventory turnover (x) 4.9 5.3 5.8 6.0
Change in equity 4,971 48 220 184 Accounts payable turnover (x) 3.2 3.5 3.7 3.8
Dividends paid -1,024 -1,655 -1,736 -2,216 ROA (%) 2.9 2.6 3.0 3.5
Others -1,278 -2,452 0 0 ROE (%) 5.0 4.5 5.1 5.9
Increase (decrease) in cash 3,052 933 253 219 Current ratio (x) 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.2
Beginning balance 2,955 6,007 6,940 7,193 Net gearing (x) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
Ending balance 6,007 6,940 7,193 7,412 Interest coverage ratio (x) 3.2 3.1 3.7 4.4
Note: Net profit refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research estimates

Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research 10

Cement June 28, 2024

Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ)

Income Statement (Summarized) Balance sheet (Summarized)

(IDRbn) 12/22 12/23 12/24F 12/25F (IDRbn) 12/22 12/23 12/24F 12/25F
Revenue 16,328 17,950 19,637 20,475 Current assets
COGS -11,185 -12,103 -13,281 -13,739 Cash & equivalents 4,526 3,185 4,607 3,397
Gross profit 5,143 5,847 6,356 6,735 Receivables 2,652 2,786 3,228 3,478
Opex 3,334 3,626 3,968 4,098 Inventories 2,831 2,905 3,162 3,435
EBIT 1,809 2,221 2,388 2,637 Others 304 352 383 415
Other income / (expenses) 419 55 73 80 Total current assets 10,312 9,228 11,381 10,724
Finance income 104 182 112 27 Non-current assets
Finance cost -43 -61 -160 -57 Fixed assets - net 14,895 19,156 19,488 19,838
Profit before income tax 2,289 2,396 2,413 2,687 Others 499 1,266 1,186 1,232
Income tax expenses -468 -446 -459 -511 Total non-current assets 15,394 20,422 20,673 21,069
Non-controlling interest 0 0 0 0 Total assets 25,706 29,650 32,054 31,794
Net profit 1,821 1,950 1,955 2,176
EBITDA 3,454 3,657 4,088 4,337 Current liabilities
ST bank loans 0 2,000 2,000 0
Margin (%) 12/22 12/23F 12/24F 12/25F Account payables 1,835 1,747 2,001 2,070
Gross profit 31.5 32.6 32.4 32.9 Other current liabilities 2,987 3,621 4,149 4,429
Operating profit 11.1 12.4 12.2 12.9 Total current liabilities 4,822 7,368 8,150 6,499
Net profit 11.2 10.9 10.0 10.6 Non-current liabilities
EBITDA 21.2 20.4 20.8 21.2 Long-term financial liabilities 1,317 1,312 1,467 1,170
Others non-current liabilities 1,317 1,312 1,467 1,170
Growth (%, YoY) 12/22 12/23F 12/24F 12/25F Total non-current liabilities 6,139 8,680 9,617 7,669
Revenue 10.5 9.9 9.4 4.3 Total liabilities 19,567 20,970 22,437 24,125
Operating profit -5.2 22.8 7.6 10.4 Shareholders' equity 0 0 0 0
EPS 16.4 7.1 0.2 11.3 Non-controlling interests 25,706 29,650 32,054 31,793
EBITDA 3.9 5.8 11.8 6.1 Total liabilities and equity 1,317 1,312 1,467 1,170

Cash Flows (Summarized) Forecasts/Valuations (Summarized)

(IDRbn) 12/22 12/23 12/24F 12/25F 12/22 12/23 12/24F 12/25F
Cash Flows from Op. Activities 2,417 3,236 3,147 3,157 P/E (x) 12.8 11.9 11.9 10.7
Net profit 1,821 1,950 1,955 2,176 P/B (x) 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0
Depreciation & amortization 1,012 995 1,141 1,186 EV/EBITDA (x) 5.4 6.0 5.1 4.6
Change in working capital -876 -295 -446 -453 EPS (IDR) 572 613 615 684
Others 461 585 497 249 BPS (IDR) 6,151 6,592 7,054 7,584
Cash Flows from Inv. Activities -1,158 -6,028 -1,237 -1,879 DPS (IDR) 547 160 153 154
Capex -1,565 -5,257 -1,473 -1,536 Payout ratio (%) 99.7 30.1 25.0 25.0
Others 406 -772 235 -343 Dividend yield (%) 7.5 2.2 2.1 2.1
Cash Flows from Fin. Activities -2,875 1,452 -488 -2,489 Accounts receivable turnover (x) 6.2 6.6 6.5 6.1
Change in liabilities 0 2,000 0 -2,000 Inventory turnover (x) 4.4 4.2 4.4 4.2
Change in equity 0 0 0 0 Accounts payable turnover (x) 5.7 6.8 7.1 6.7
Dividends paid -1,740 -549 -488 -489 ROA (%) 7.0 7.0 6.3 6.8
Others -1,135 1 0 0 ROE (%) 9.1 9.6 9.0 9.3
Increase (decrease) in cash -1,616 -1,341 1,422 -1,210 Current ratio (x) 2.1 1.3 1.4 1.7
Beginning balance 6,141 4,526 3,185 4,607 Net gearing (x) Net cash Net cash Net cash Net cash
Ending balance 4,526 3,185 4,607 3,397 Interest coverage ratio (x) 42.2 36.7 14.9 46.2
Note: Net profit refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research estimates

Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research 11

Cement June 28, 2024

Appendix 1

Important disclosures and disclaimers

Two-year rating and TP history
Company Date Rating TP (IDR) Company Date Rating TP (IDR)
Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ) 6/28/2024 Buy 9,150 Semen Indonesia (SMGR IJ) 6/28/2024 Buy 6,425
5/30/2024 Buy 9,150 5/30/2024 Buy 6,425
4/2/20224 Buy 11,725 3/18/2024 Buy 7,900
2/22/2024 Buy 12,825 2/22/2024 Buy 8,025
1/24/2024 Buy 12,825 1/24/2024 Buy 8,025
12/1/2023 Buy 12,825 12/1/2023 Buy 8,025
10/23/2023 Buy 12,875 10/23/2023 Buy 8,400
9/20/2023 Buy 12,875 9/20/2023 Buy 8,400
8/21/2023 Trading Buy 12,875 8/21/2023 Buy 8,400
8/9/2023 Buy 12,875 8/9/2023 Buy 8,400
7/25/2023 Buy 12,875 7/25/2023 Buy 8,400
3/30/2023 Buy 14,000 3/24/2023 Buy 8,700
3/9/2023 Buy 13,900 12/1/2022 Buy 10,800
12/1/2022 Buy 12,000 9/14/2022 Buy 10,700
10/11/2022 Buy 11,500
9/14/2022 Trading Buy 11,500

(IDR) INTP Analyst's TP (IDR) SMGR Analyst's TP

15,000 9,000

7,000
10,000
5,000

5,000 3,000
Jun-22 Jun-23 Jun-24 Jun-22 Jun-23 Jun-24

Stock ratings Sector ratings

Buy Expected 12-month performance: +20% or greater Overweight Expected to outperform the market over 12 months
Trading Buy Expected 12-month performance: +10% to +20% Neutral Expected to perform in line with the market over 12 months
Hold Expected 12-month performance: -10% to +10% Underweight Expected to underperform the market over 12 months
Sell Expected 12-month performance: -10% or worse

Rating and TP history: Share price (─), TP (▬), Not Rated (■), Buy (▲), Trading Buy (■), Hold (●), Sell (♦)
* Our investment rating is a guide to the expected return of the stock over the next 12 months.
* Outside of the official ratings of PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia, analysts may call trading opportunities should technical or short-term material developments arise.
* The TP was determined by the research analyst through valuation methods discussed in this report, in part based on estimates of future earnings.
* TP achievement may be impeded by risks related to the subject securities and companies, as well as general market and economic conditions.

Disclosures
As of the publication date, PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia (“MASID”) and/or its affiliates do not have any special interest in the subject company and do not own 1% or
more of the subject company's shares outstanding.

Analyst certification
The research analysts who prepared this report (the “Analysts”) are certified to the Indonesia Financial Services Authority and are subject to Indonesian
Capital Market regulations. They are neither registered as research analysts in any other jurisdiction nor subject to the laws or regulations thereof. Each
Analyst responsible for the preparation of this report certifies that (i) all views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the Analyst
about any and all of the issuers and securities named in this report; (ii) no part of the compensation of the Analyst was, is, or will be directly or indirectly
related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report; and (iii) The report does not contain any material non-public information. Except
as otherwise specified herein, the Analysts have not received any compensation or any other benefits from the subject companies in the past 12 months and
have not been promised the same in connection with this report. Like all employees of MASID, the Analysts receive compensation that is determined by
overall firm profitability, which includes revenues from, among other business units, the institutional equities, investment banking, proprietary trading, and
etc. At the time of publication of this report, the Analysts do not know or have reason to know of any actual, material conflict of interest of the Analyst or
MASID except as otherwise stated herein.

Disclaimers
This report was prepared by MASID, a broker-dealer registered in the Republic of Indonesia and a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchange; on behalf of
MASID and its affiliated companies and is provided for information purposes only. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good
faith and from sources believed to be reliable, but such information has not been independently verified and MASID (including but not limited to the Analyst,
respective employees who owns the expertise) makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy,
completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein or of any translation into English from the Indonesia language or as to any
information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. In case of an English translation
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research 12
Cement June 28, 2024

of a report prepared in the Indonesia language, the original Indonesian language report may have been made available to investors in advance of this report.
The intended recipients of this report are sophisticated institutional investors who have substantial knowledge of the local business environment, its common
practices, laws, and accounting principles, and no person whose receipt or use of this report would violate any laws or regulations or subject MASID or any
of its affiliates to registration or licensing requirements in any jurisdiction shall receive or make any use hereof.
This report is for general information purposes only and is not and shall not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to effect transactions in any
securities or other financial instruments. The report does not constitute investment advice to any person, and such person shall not be treated as a client of
MASID by virtue of receiving this report. This report does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual
clients. The report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. Information and opinions contained herein are as of the
date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The price and value of the investments referred to in this report and the income from them may
depreciate or appreciate, and investors may incur losses on investments. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Future returns are not
guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Please note that the graphs, charts, formulae, or other devices set out or referred to in this document
cannot, in and of itself, be used to determine in deciding which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell a securities. MASID, its affiliates, and their
directors, officers, employees, and agents do not accept any liability (express or implied) for any loss arising out of the use hereof and howsoever arising
(including, but not limited for any claims, proceeding, action, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any
person as a result of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report.
MASID may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the opinions presented in this report. The reports
may reflect different assumptions, views, and analytical methods of the analysts who prepared them. MASID may make investment decisions that are
inconsistent with the opinions and views expressed in this research report. MASID, its affiliates, and their directors, officers, employees, and agents may
have long or short positions in any of the subject securities at any time and may make a purchase or sale, or offer to make a purchase or sale, of any such
securities or other financial instruments from time to time in the open market or otherwise, in each case either as principals or agents. MASID and its affiliates
may have had, or may be expecting to enter into, business relationships with the subject companies to provide investment banking, market-making, or other
financial services as are permitted under the applicable laws and regulations. In considering any investments you should make your own independent
assessment and seek your own professional financial and legal advisors. Should you choose not to seek such advice, you should consider carefully whether
the securities is suitable for you.
No part of this document may be copied or reproduced in any manner or form or redistributed or published, in whole or in part, without the prior written
consent of MASID. The media is not allowed to quote this report in any article whether in full or in parts without permission from MASID For further
information regarding company-specific information as it pertains to the representations and disclosures in this Appendix 1, please contact
researchteam@miraeasset.co.id or +62 (21) 5088-7000.

Distribution
United Kingdom: This report is being distributed by Mirae Asset Securities (UK) Ltd. in the United Kingdom only to (i) investment professionals falling within
Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the “Order”), and (ii) high net worth companies and other
persons to whom it may lawfully be communicated, falling within Article 49(2)(A) to (E) of the Order (all such persons together being referred to as “Relevant
Persons”). This report is directed only at Relevant Persons. Any person who is not a Relevant Person should not act or rely on this report or any of its contents.
United States: MASID is not a registered broker-dealer in the United States and, therefore, is not subject to U.S. rules regarding the preparation of research
reports and the independence of research analysts. This report is distributed in the U.S. by Mirae Asset Securities (USA) Inc., a member of FINRA/SIPC, to
“major U.S. institutional investors” in reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a-6(b)(4) under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934,
as amended. All U.S. persons that receive this document by their acceptance hereof represent and warrant that they are a major U.S. institutional investor
and have not received this report under any express or implied understanding that they will direct commission income to MASID or its affiliates. Any U.S.
recipient of this document wishing to effect a transaction in any securities discussed herein should contact and place orders with Mirae Asset Securities (USA)
Inc. Mirae Asset Securities (USA) Inc. accepts responsibility for the contents of this report in the U.S., subject to the terms hereof, to the extent that it is
delivered to a U.S. person other than a major U.S. institutional investor. Under no circumstances should any recipient of this research report effect any
transaction to buy or sell securities or related financial instruments through MASID. The securities described in this report may not have been registered
under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and, in such case, may not be offered or sold in the U.S. or to U.S. persons absent registration or an
applicable exemption from the registration requirements.
Hong Kong: This report is distributed in Hong Kong by Mirae Asset Securities (HK) Limited, which is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures
Commission. The contents of this report have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in Hong Kong. This report is for distribution only to professional
investors within the meaning of Part I of Schedule 1 to the Securities and Futures Ordinance of Hong Kong (Cap. 571, Laws of Hong Kong) and any rules
made thereunder and may not be redistributed in whole or in part in Hong Kong to any person.
India: This report is being distributed by Mirae Asset Capital Markets (India) Private Limited (“MACM”) in India to the customers based in India and is personal
information only for those authorised recipient(s). MACM is inter alia a Securities and Exchange Board of India (“SEBI”) registered Research Analyst in India
and is not registered outside India. MACM and Mirae Asset, Korea are group entities. MACM makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or
implied, as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The user assumes the entire risk of any
use made of this information. This report has been provided for assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an
investment decision. Recipient must read the entire Appendix 1 to the report carefully for Important Disclosures & Disclaimers.
All other jurisdictions: Customers in all other countries who wish to effect a transaction in any securities referenced in this report should contact MASID or
its affiliates only if distribution to or use by such customer of this report would not violate applicable laws and regulations and not subject MASID and its
affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction.

Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research 13

Cement June 28, 2024

Mirae Asset Securities International Network

Mirae Asset Securities Co., Ltd. (Seoul) Mirae Asset Securities (HK) Ltd. Mirae Asset Securities (UK) Ltd.
One-Asia Equity Sales Team Units 8501, 8507-8508, 85/F 41st Floor, Tower 42
Mirae Asset Center 1 Building International Commerce Centre 25 Old Broad Street,
26 Eulji-ro 5-gil, Jung-gu, Seoul 04539 1 Austin Road West London EC2N 1HQ
Korea Kowloon United Kingdom
Hong Kong
Tel: 82-2-3774-2124 Tel: 852-2845-6332 Tel: 44-20-7982-8000

Mirae Asset Securities (USA) Inc. Mirae Asset Wealth Management (Brazil) CCTVM PT. Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
810 Seventh Avenue, 37th Floor Rua Funchal, 418, 18th Floor, E-Tower Building District 8, Treasury Tower Building Lt. 50
New York, NY 10019 Vila Olimpia Sudirman Central Business District
USA Sao Paulo - SP Jl. Jend. Sudirman, Kav. 52-54
04551-060 Jakarta Selatan 12190
Brazil Indonesia
Tel: 1-212-407-1000 Tel: 55-11-2789-2100 Tel: 62-21-5088-7000

Mirae Asset Securities (Singapore) Pte. Ltd. Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) LLC Mirae Asset Securities Mongolia UTsK LLC
6 Battery Road, #11-01 7F, Saigon Royal Building #406, Blue Sky Tower, Peace Avenue 17
Singapore 049909 91 Pasteur St. 1 Khoroo, Sukhbaatar District
Republic of Singapore District 1, Ben Nghe Ward, Ho Chi Minh City Ulaanbaatar 14240
Vietnam Mongolia

Tel: 65-6671-9845 Tel: 84-8-3911-0633 (ext.110) Tel: 976-7011-0806

Mirae Asset Investment Advisory (Beijing) Co., Ltd
2401B, 24th Floor, East Tower, Twin Towers
B12 Jianguomenwai Avenue, Chaoyang District
Beijing 100022
China
Beijing Representative Office
2401A, 24th Floor, East Tower, Twin Towers
B12 Jianguomenwai Avenue, Chaoyang District
Beijing 100022
China
Shanghai Representative Office
38T31, 38F, Shanghai World Financial Center
100 Century Avenue, Pudong New Area
Shanghai 200120
China

Tel: 86-10-6567-9699 Tel: 86-10-6567-9699 (ext. 3300) Tel: 86-21-5013-6392

Ho Chi Minh Representative Office Mirae Asset Capital Markets (India) Pvt Ltd
7F, Saigon Royal Building 1st Floor, Tower 4, Equinox Business Park,
91 Pasteur St. LBS Marg, Off BKC, Kurla (West), Mumbai - 400 070
District 1, Ben Nghe Ward, Ho Chi Minh City India
Vietnam

Tel: 84-8-3910-7715 Tel: 91-22-62661300 / 48821300

Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research 14