Guide ECON306 Solution HW 10

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Question A. Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Group 4 Group 5 Group 6Question B. Step 1.

27 29 34 34 28 28
31 28 36 34 28 26 Step 2.
26 37 34 43 26 29
32 24 41 44 35 25 Step 3.
39 35 30 40 31 35
37 40 44 47 30 34 Step 4.
38 40 44 34 34 37
39 31 32 31 34 28
30 30 32 45 26 21
28 25 31 28 20 28
27 29 41 26
27 25 21
34

Data for Question C


Source of Va
Y X1 X2 X3 X4 X5
27 1 0 0 0 0
31 1 0 0 0 0
26 1 0 0 0 0
32 1 0 0 0 0
39 1 0 0 0 0
37 1 0 0 0 0
38 1 0 0 0 0
39 1 0 0 0 0
30 1 0 0 0 0
28 1 0 0 0 0
27 1 0 0 0 0
27 1 0 0 0 0
34 1 0 0 0 0
29 0 1 0 0 0
28 0 1 0 0 0
37 0 1 0 0 0
24 0 1 0 0 0
35 0 1 0 0 0
40 0 1 0 0 0
40 0 1 0 0 0
31 0 1 0 0 0
30 0 1 0 0 0
25 0 1 0 0 0
29 0 1 0 0 0
25 0 1 0 0 0
34 0 0 1 0 0
36 0 0 1 0 0
34 0 0 1 0 0
41 0 0 1 0 0
30 0 0 1 0 0
44 0 0 1 0 0
44 0 0 1 0 0
32 0 0 1 0 0
32 0 0 1 0 0
31 0 0 1 0 0
34 0 0 0 1 0
34 0 0 0 1 0
43 0 0 0 1 0
44 0 0 0 1 0
40 0 0 0 1 0
47 0 0 0 1 0
34 0 0 0 1 0
31 0 0 0 1 0
45 0 0 0 1 0
28 0 0 0 1 0
28 0 0 0 0 1
28 0 0 0 0 1
26 0 0 0 0 1
35 0 0 0 0 1
31 0 0 0 0 1
30 0 0 0 0 1
34 0 0 0 0 1
34 0 0 0 0 1
26 0 0 0 0 1
20 0 0 0 0 1
41 0 0 0 0 1
21 0 0 0 0 1
28 0 0 0 0 0
26 0 0 0 0 0
29 0 0 0 0 0
25 0 0 0 0 0
35 0 0 0 0 0
34 0 0 0 0 0 Group 6
37 0 0 0 0 0
28 0 0 0 0 0
21 0 0 0 0 0
28 0 0 0 0 0
26 0 0 0 0 0
Data for Question F

Y X2 X3 X4 X5 X6
27 0 0 0 0 0
31 0 0 0 0 0
26 0 0 0 0 0
32 0 0 0 0 0
39 0 0 0 0 0
37 0 0 0 0 0
38 0 0 0 0 0 Group 1
39 0 0 0 0 0
30 0 0 0 0 0
28 0 0 0 0 0
27 0 0 0 0 0
27 0 0 0 0 0
34 0 0 0 0 0
29 1 0 0 0 0
28 1 0 0 0 0
37 1 0 0 0 0
24 1 0 0 0 0
35 1 0 0 0 0
40 1 0 0 0 0
40 1 0 0 0 0
31 1 0 0 0 0
30 1 0 0 0 0
25 1 0 0 0 0
29 1 0 0 0 0
25 1 0 0 0 0
34 0 1 0 0 0
36 0 1 0 0 0
34 0 1 0 0 0
41 0 1 0 0 0
30 0 1 0 0 0
44 0 1 0 0 0
44 0 1 0 0 0
32 0 1 0 0 0
32 0 1 0 0 0
31 0 1 0 0 0
34 0 0 1 0 0
34 0 0 1 0 0
43 0 0 1 0 0
44 0 0 1 0 0
40 0 0 1 0 0
47 0 0 1 0 0
34 0 0 1 0 0
31 0 0 1 0 0
45 0 0 1 0 0
28 0 0 1 0 0
28 0 0 0 1 0
28 0 0 0 1 0
26 0 0 0 1 0
35 0 0 0 1 0
31 0 0 0 1 0
30 0 0 0 1 0
34 0 0 0 1 0
34 0 0 0 1 0
26 0 0 0 1 0
20 0 0 0 1 0
41 0 0 0 1 0
21 0 0 0 1 0
28 0 0 0 0 1
26 0 0 0 0 1
29 0 0 0 0 1
25 0 0 0 0 1
35 0 0 0 0 1
34 0 0 0 0 1
37 0 0 0 0 1
28 0 0 0 0 1
21 0 0 0 0 1
28 0 0 0 0 1
26 0 0 0 0 1
H0: mu_1 = mu_2 = … = mu_6

Ha: At least two mu_i's are different

Alpha = 5%

Anova: Single Factor

SUMMARY
Groups Count Sum Average Variance
Group 1 13 415 31.92307692308 24.5769231
Group 2 12 373 31.08333333333 32.0833333
Group 3 10 358 35.8 28.1777778
Group 4 10 380 38 43.5555556
Group 5 12 354 29.5 36.0909091
Group 6 11 317 28.81818181818 22.5636364

ANOVA
Source of Variation SS df MS F P-value
Between Groups 694.438598656247 5 138.8877197312 4.49410052 0.00147093775
Within Groups 1916.07610722611 62 30.90445334236

Total 2610.51470588235 67

Question C. SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
0.515767359223086 0.5157673592231 0.515767359223
0.266015968839956 0.26601596884 0.26601596884
0.206823708262533 0.2068237082625 0.206823708263
5.55917739799303 5.559177397993 5.559177397993
68 68 68

ANOVA
df SS MS F
Regression 5 694.4385986562 138.88772 4.4941005166
Residual 62 1916.076107226 30.9044533
Total 67 2610.514705882

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value


Intercept 28.818181818182 1.676155052015 17.1930286 0%
X1 3.1048951048951 2.277446245275 1.36332311 18%
X2 2.2651515151515 2.32053159217 0.97613475 33%
X3 6.9818181818182 2.428979434378 2.87438341 1%
X4 9.1818181818182 2.428979434378 3.78011359 0%
X5 0.6818181818182 2.32053159217 0.29381982 77%

Question D. Explain the significance of the estimated coefficients.

From the Regression Table:


The significant values are: Intercept

X3

X4

The insignificant values are:X1

X2

X5

Question E.

Alpha: 5%

Critical Value: = 11.8156417098

Test Statistic:

Group 1 Group 2 Group 3


Group 1 - Group 6 1 0 0
Group 2 - Group 6 0 1 0
Group 3 - Group 6 0 0 1
Group 4 - Group 6 0 0 0
Group 5 - Group 6 0 0 0
Question F. We need to rearrange the data and using Group 1 as the reference level. Now Group 6 a

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.5157673592231
R Square 0.26601596884
Adjusted R Square 0.2068237082625
Standard Error 5.559177397993
Observations 68

ANOVA
df SS MS F
Regression 5 694.4385986562 138.88772 4.4941005166
Residual 62 1916.076107226 30.9044533
Total 67 2610.514705882

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value


Intercept 31.923076923077 1.541838396759 20.7045544 0%
X2 -0.8397435897436 2.225452033539 -0.37733619 71%
X3 3.8769230769231 2.338313703496 1.65799955 10%
X4 6.0769230769231 2.338313703496 2.59884851 1%
X5 -2.4230769230769 2.225452033539 -1.08880213 28%
X6 -3.1048951048951 2.277446245275 -1.36332311 18%

From the Regression Table:


The significant values are: Intercept

X4

The insignificant values are:X2


X3

X5

X6

Alpha: 5%

Critical Value: = 2.36312834195

Test Statistic:

Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Group 4


Group 2 - Group 1 -1 1 0 0
Group 3 - Group 1 -1 0 1 0
Group 4 - Group 1 -1 0 0 1
Group 5 - Group 1 -1 0 0 0
Group 6 - Group 1 -1 0 0 0
F crit
2.36312834195233

Significance F
0.00147093775064663

Lower 95% Upper 95% Significant? Meaning


25.4675956110718 32.168768 Yes Yes
-1.44765507098361 7.65744528 Yes Yes
-2.37352504197246 6.90382807 Yes Yes
2.12635747703653 11.8372789 Yes Yes
4.32635747703653 14.0372789 Yes Yes
-3.95685837530579 5.32049474 Yes Yes

Meaning.
The intercept is different from 0, hence, the Mean of Group 6 (reference level) is different from 0.

The coefficent of X3 is different from 0

The coefficent of X4 is different from 0= 0

The coefficent of X1 is indifferent from 0

The coefficent of X2 is indifferent from 0

The coefficent of X5 is indifferent from 0

MSE= 30.9

Groups Count Average


1 13 31.9230769230769
2 12 31.0833333333333
3 10 35.8
4 10 38
5 12 29.5
6 11 28.8181818181818

Group 4 Group 5 Group 6 S-stat


0 0 -1 1.8589177812479
0 0 -1 0.95297636559774
0 0 -1 8.26327070987269
1 0 -1 14.2913181748134
0 1 -1 0.0863425304117629
ference level. Now Group 6 appears in the table

Significance F
0.00147093775064664

Lower 95% Upper 95% Significant? Meaning


28.8409858840877 35.005168 YES Mean of Group 1
-5.28835881731202 3.60887164 NO Mean of Group 2 - Mean of Group 1
-0.797299414253494 8.55114557 NO Mean of Group 3 - Mean of Group 1
1.4027005857465 10.7511456 YES Mean of Group 4 - Mean of Group 1
-6.87169215064535 2.0255383 NO Mean of Group 5 - Mean of Group 1
-7.65744528077383 1.44765507 NO Mean of Group 6 - Mean of Group 1

Meaning.
The intercept is different from 0, hence, the Mean of Group 1 (reference level) is different from 0.

The coefficent of X4 is different from 0

The coefficent of X2 is indifferent from 0


The coefficent of X3 is indifferent from 0

The coefficent of X5 is indifferent from 0

The coefficent of X6 is indifferent from 0

MSE= 30.9044533423566

Groups Count Average


1 13 31.9230769230769
2 12 31.0833333333333
3 10 35.8
4 10 38
5 12 29.5
6 11 28.8181818181818

Group 5 Group 6 S-stat (I-1)*F(alpha, I-1, n-I)


0 0 0.14238259973444 2.36312834195233
0 0 2.74896252023496 2.36312834195233
0 0 6.75401356166005 2.36312834195233
1 0 1.18549008685133 2.36312834195233
0 1 1.85864991055621 2.36312834195233
Normal Probability
50
45
40
35
30
25
Y

20
15
10
5
0
0 20 40 60
Sample Percentile
Different from 0?
Mean of Group 6
Mean of Group 1 - Mean of Group 6
Mean of Group 2 - Mean of Group 6
Mean of Group 3 - Mean of Group 6
Mean of Group 4 - Mean of Group 6
Mean of Group 5 - Mean of Group 6

) is different from 0.

Reject
(I-1)*F(alpha, I-1,H0
n- if S-stat > (I-1)*F(alpha, I-1, n-I)
11.8156417097617 We do not reject H0
11.8156417097617 We do not reject H0
11.8156417097617 We do not reject H0
11.8156417097617 We reject H0
11.8156417097617 We do not reject H0
Different from 0?
YES
NO
NO
YES
NO
NO

) is different from 0.
Reject H0 if S-stat > (I-1)*F(alpha, I-1, n-I)
We do not reject H0
We do not reject H0
We do not reject H0
We do not reject H0
We do not reject H0
PROBABILITY OUTPUT
Normal Probability Plot
Percentile Y
0.735294 20
2.205882 21
3.676471 21
5.147059 24
6.617647 25
8.088235 25
9.558824 25
11.02941 26
12.5 26
13.97059 26
15.44118 26
16.91176 26
20 40 60 80 100 120 18.38235 27
Sample Percentile 19.85294 27
21.32353 27
22.79412 28
24.26471 28
25.73529 28
27.20588 28
28.67647 28
30.14706 28
31.61765 28
33.08824 28
34.55882 29
36.02941 29
37.5 29
38.97059 30
40.44118 30
41.91176 30
43.38235 30
44.85294 31
46.32353 31
47.79412 31
49.26471 31
50.73529 31
52.20588 32
53.67647 32
55.14706 32
56.61765 34
58.08824 34
59.55882 34
61.02941 34
62.5 34
63.97059 34
65.44118 34
66.91176 34
68.38235 34
69.85294 35
71.32353 35
72.79412 35
74.26471 36
75.73529 37
77.20588 37
78.67647 37
80.14706 38
81.61765 39
83.08824 39
84.55882 40
86.02941 40
87.5 40
88.97059 41
90.44118 41
91.91176 43
93.38235 44
94.85294 44
96.32353 44
97.79412 45
99.26471 47
Solution.

First, we need to rearrange the data in the format that we can use two-factor ANOVA

We use row for factor "Promotion Frequency" and column for "Percent Discount"

What are recorded are the values of the expected prices ($)

Percent Discount (a) Step 1. H0A: There is no effect of Prmomo


40 20 H0B: There is no effect of Percent
1 4.1 4.94 H0AB: There is no effect of interac
4.5 4.59
4.47 4.58 Step 2. HaA: There is effect of Prmomotio
4.42 4.48 HaB: There is effect of Percent Dis
4.56 4.55 HaAB: There is effect of interactio
4.69 4.53
4.42 4.59 Step 3. Alpha =
4.17 4.66
4.31 4.73 Step 4. We use Two-Factor ANOVA with
4.59 5.24
Promotion Anova: Two-Factor
3 4.07 4.88
With Replication
4.13 4.8
4.25 4.46 SUMMARY
4.23 4.73 1
4.57 3.96 Count
4.33 4.42 Sum
4.17 4.3 Average
4.47 4.68 Variance
4.6 4.45
4.02 4.56 3
Count
Sum
Average
Variance

Total
Count
Sum
Average
Variance

ANOVA
Source of Variation

Sample (Promotion)
Columns (Discount)
Interaction
Within

Total

Decision.

Step 5. Conclusion.

(b). The mean levels of each factor are

Percent Discount

From the graph, it almost clear that


between the two factors.

(c). Dummy coding

Promotion

Now, rearrange the data using dum

Let Z = Expected Prices

interaction Dependent variable

Z
4.1
4.5
4.47

4.42

4.56
4.69
4.42
4.17
4.31
4.59
4.94
4.59
4.58
4.48
4.55
4.53
4.59
4.66
4.73
5.24
4.07
4.13
4.25
4.23
4.57
4.33
4.17
4.47
4.6
4.02
4.88
4.8
4.46
4.73
3.96
4.42
4.3
4.68
4.45
4.56
ere is no effect of Prmomotion Frequency on the Expected Prices that clients will pay
ere is no effect of Percent Discount on the Expected Prices that clients will pay
here is no effect of interaction between the Prmomotion Frequency and Percent Discount on the Expected Prices that clients w

ere is effect of Prmomotion Frequency on the Expected Prices that clients will pay
re is effect of Percent Discount on the Expected Prices that clients will pay
here is effect of interaction between the Prmomotion Frequency and Percent Discount on the Expected Prices that clients will

5%

wo-Factor ANOVA with Replication (Kij = 10)

40 20 Total

10 10 20
44.23 46.89 91.12
4.423 4.689 4.556
0.03413444 0.05432111 0.06052

10 10 20
42.84 45.24 88.08
4.284 4.524 4.404
0.04162667 0.07329333 0.06959368

20 20
87.07 92.13
4.3535 4.6065
0.04097132 0.06761342

SS df MS F P-value F crit Significant at alpha =


5%?
0.23104 1 0.23104 4.5441056 0.039927942 4.113165277 YES
0.64009 1 0.64009 12.5893203 0.001100288 4.113165277 YES
0.00169 1 0.00169 0.033239 0.856357802 4.113165277 NO
1.83038 36 0.05084389

2.7032 39

At alpha = 5%, We reject Null Hypothesis A


We reject Null Hypothesis B
We do not reject Null Hypothesis C

There is effects of promotion frequency on the expected price


There is effects of discount on the expected price
There is no effect of their interaction on the expected price

levels of each factor are report below


Promotion Frequency vs Percent
Promotion
Discount
1 3 4.8
4.423 4.284 4.7 4.689
40
4.6
20 4.689 4.524 4.524
4.5
4.4 4.423
graph, it almost clear that there is no interaction 4.3 4.284
he two factors. 4.2
4.1
4
1 3

40 20

Coding Coding
X Y
1 1 Discount 40 1
3 0 20 0

rrange the data using dummy coding

xpected Prices Regression Analysis Model: Z = beta_0 + beta_1 X + beta_2 Y +

Promotion Discount Interaction SUMMAR


Y
X Y X*Y OUTPUT
1 1 1 Regression Statistics
1 1 1 Multiple R 0.568228818
R Square
1 1 1 0.322883989
Adjusted R
1 1 1 Square 0.266457655
Standard
1 1 1 Error 0.225485895
1 1 1 Observations 40
1 1 1
1 1 1 ANOVA

1 1 1 df SS
1 1 1 Regression 3 0.872820000000001
1 0 0 Residual 36 1.83038
1 0 0 Total 39 2.7032

1 0 0
1 0 0 Coefficients Standard Error
1 0 0 Intercept 4.524 0.0713049008756684
1 0 0 X 0.165 0.100840357882039
1 0 0 Y -0.24 0.100840357882039
1 0 0 X*Y -0.026 0.142609801751337
1 0 0
1 0 0
0 1 0
RESIDUAL OUTPUT
0 1 0
0 1 0
0 1 0 Observation Predicted Z Residuals
0 1 0 1 4.423 -0.323
0 1 0 2 4.423 0.0770000000000009
0 1 0 3 4.423 0.0470000000000006
0 1 0 4 4.423 -0.00299999999999923
0 1 0 5 4.423 0.137
0 1 0 6 4.423 0.267000000000001
0 0 0 7 4.423 -0.00299999999999923
0 0 0 8 4.423 -0.252999999999999
0 0 0 9 4.423 -0.113
0 0 0 10 4.423 0.167000000000001
0 0 0 11 4.689 0.251
0 0 0 12 4.689 -0.0990000000000002
0 0 0 13 4.689 -0.109
0 0 0 14 4.689 -0.209
0 0 0 15 4.689 -0.139
0 0 0 16 4.689 -0.159
17 4.689 -0.0990000000000002
18 4.689 -0.0289999999999999
19 4.689 0.0410000000000004
20 4.689 0.551
21 4.284 -0.214
22 4.284 -0.154
23 4.284 -0.0339999999999998
24 4.284 -0.0539999999999994
25 4.284 0.286000000000001
26 4.284 0.0460000000000003
27 4.284 -0.114
28 4.284 0.186
29 4.284 0.316
30 4.284 -0.264
31 4.524 0.356
32 4.524 0.276
33 4.524 -0.0640000000000001
34 4.524 0.206
35 4.524 -0.564
36 4.524 -0.104
37 4.524 -0.224
38 4.524 0.156
39 4.524 -0.0739999999999998
40 4.524 0.0359999999999996
Expected Prices that clients will pay

pected Prices that clients will pay


y vs Percent

4.524

4.284

20

_0 + beta_1 X + beta_2 Y + beta_3 X*Y + Error


MS F Significance
F
0.29094 5.722221615 0.002616475
0.050843889

t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Significant at 5%?


63.44584937 0% 4.379386958 4.668613042 Yes
1.636249647 11% -0.03951372 0.369513725 No
-2.379999487 2% -0.44451372 -0.03548628 Yes
-0.182315659 86% -0.31522608 0.263226083 No We need to conduct another analsysis with
(why?), then check if X is significant.

PROBABI
LITY
OUTPUT
Percentile Z
1.25 3.96
3.75 4.02
6.25 4.07
8.75 4.1
11.25 4.13
13.75 4.17
16.25 4.17
18.75 4.23 Normal Probability Plot
21.25 4.25 6
23.75 4.3 5
26.25 4.31 4
28.75 4.33 3
Z

31.25 4.42 2
33.75 4.42 1
36.25 4.42 0
38.75 4.45 0 20 40 60 80 100 120
41.25 4.46 Sample Percentile
43.75 4.47
46.25 4.47
48.75 4.48
51.25 4.5
53.75 4.53
56.25 4.55
58.75 4.56
61.25 4.56
63.75 4.57
66.25 4.58
68.75 4.59
71.25 4.59
73.75 4.59
76.25 4.6
78.75 4.66
81.25 4.68
83.75 4.69
86.25 4.73
88.75 4.73
91.25 4.8
93.75 4.88
96.25 4.94
98.75 5.24
Regression Analysis Model: Z = beta_0 + beta_1 X + beta_2 Y + E
SUMMA
RY

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.56767843
R Square 0.3222588
Adjusted R 0.28562415
Square
Standard 0.22252057
Error
Observation 40
s
ANOVA
df SS MS F

Regression 2 0.871 0.436 8.797


Residual 37 1.832 0.050
Total 39 2.703

Coefficients Standard t Stat P-value


Error
Intercept 4.531 0.061 74.344 0.000
X 0.152 0.070 2.160 0.037
Y -0.253 0.070 -3.595 0.001

nother analsysis without interaction


X is significant.

Plot

80 100 120
eta_1 X + beta_2 Y + Error
Significance
F
0.001

Lower 95% Upper 95%


Significant at 5%?
4.407 4.654 YES
0.009 0.295 YES
-0.396 -0.110 YES

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