Prospects Evaluation

By:
Mahmoud Badawy

(Lecturer of Geophysics, Geology Department,

Faculty of Science, Alexandria University, Egypt)

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 Petroleum Reserves
Estimation Methods

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 Measures of central tendency
Magnitude of uncertainty in reserves estimates

Percentiles

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 Hydrocarbon
Prospects Evaluation

By:
Mahmoud Badawy

(Lecturer of Geophysics, Geology Department,

Faculty of Science, Alexandria University, Egypt)

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Prospective Resources: Plays, Leads, and Prospects

Play
A play is defined as a region thought to be
conducive to the hydrocarbon accumulation in a
specific geologic formation or interval in the
subsurface.

With further investigation the play

will be redefined to a trap (petroleum system).

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 Lead
Potential accumulation is
currently poorly defined and
requires more data acquisition
and/or evaluation in order to be
classified as a prospect

Lead is A potential petroleum trap defined by only one seismic

line

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Prospect
Potential accumulation is sufficiently well-
defined to represent a viable drilling target. Also
known as a potential trap that must be evaluated
by drilling to determine whether it contains
commercial quantities of petroleum or not.

A potential petroleum trap defined by a grid of seismic lines (at

least 2 lines).

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Rock Volume
In any subsurface trap the most effective
technique or factor applied in the estimation of
hydrocarbon volume in the reservoir is the
Gross Rock Volume (GRV) technique.

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Hydrocarbon in Place

The volumetric is a static measurement based on a geologic model that uses geometry to
define the volume of hydrocarbons in the reservoir rock. Currently, volumetric estimation
is the only technique that is accessible to estimate hydrocarbons-in-place. The main
purpose of volumetric estimation is to assess a
reservoir and calculate the possible reserves of the reservoir rock.

FVF=formation volume
factor—oil shrinks and
gas expands when
brought to the surface.
The FVF converts
volumes at reservoir
conditions (high pressure
and high temperature) to
storage and sale
conditions.

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 Petroleum Prospects
Evaluation

By:
Mahmoud Badawy

(Lecturer of Geophysics, Geology Department,

Faculty of Science, Alexandria University, Egypt)
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Prospect evaluation, resource assessment and risking

Prospect evaluation
Purposes of prospect evaluation by the government
• Basis for recommendation for which blocks should
be awarded and proposals for work commitment for
licenses.
• Basis for evaluation of applications for licenses or
bidding rounds.
• A state participation can be decided on basis of the
evaluation carried out by the government in
addition to the applicants/bidders.

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 Volumetric calculation
What is the recoverable hydrocarbon quantities of this accumulation ?

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Interpretation and mapping
• Seismic interpretation.
• Digitizing, map construction.
• Depth conversion.
Geometric description
• Vertical closure.
• Spill point relations.
• Trap fill.
• Uncertainties in interpretation,
mapping and depth conversion.

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The trap

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Reservoir parameters
• Reservoir thickness (constant or variable)
• Net/gross ratio (average)
• porosity (average; > cut-off value)
• HC-saturation (average)

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HCPV - prognosis vs result

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Techlog project

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 Petroleum Prospects
Evaluation

By:
Mahmoud Badawy

(Lecturer of Geophysics, Geology Department,

Faculty of Science, Alexandria University, Egypt)
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By using Monte Carlo Method,

Calculate :
OOIP (P90 & P50 & P10) in MMBO, Mean and Median.

Where Min & Max Area (1000 - 5000) Acre,

Min & Max Porosity (0.2 - 0.6) Fraction,
Min & Max SW (0.35 - 0.55) Fraction,
formation volume factor is 1.5 RB/STB,
OWC is 1424 m
and GOC is 1440 m.
Note: Net Pay in Ft.

Answer?

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Petroleum Stages

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The following data are given for the Hout Oil Field:

Area = 27,000 acres

Net productive thickness = 61 ft
Porosity = 11%
Average Sw = 42%
Initial reservoir pressure, pi = 2870 psia
Abandonment pressure, pa = 280 psia
Bo at pi = 1.57 bbl/STB
Bo at pa = 1.04 bbl/STB
Sg at pa = 31%
Sor after water invasion = 18%

Calculate the following:

1) Initial oil in place
2) Oil in place after volumetric depletion to abandonment pressure
3) Oil in place after water invasion at initial pressure
4) Oil reserve by volumetric depletion to abandonment pressure
5) Oil reserve by full water drive
6) Discuss your answers
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Probability categories The independent risk factors
- NPD’s risk factors
Stochastic probabilities Probability of discovery:
P = P1 x P2 x P3 x P4
- measured values
...where:
- success rates, etc
P1 - probability of efficient reservoir
P2 - probability of efficient trap
Objective probabilities P3 - probability of efficient source &
- logical arguments, migration
- analogue events, etc P4 - probability of efficient retention after
accumulation
Subjective probabilities
- beliefs, Probability of discovery
- “guts feeling”, etc The estimated prospect probability is
not the probability of making a
discovery, but:
The probability of finding at least the
minimum quantity of hydrocarbons we
estimated in the resource assessment.

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Risk - Probability

Success rate

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Reconstruction of the hydrocarbon accumulation process

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Independent risk factors for:
The probability of finding at least the
minimum quantity of hydrocarbons we
estimated in the resource assessment.

Probability of discovery

– High risk prospects are risked too low.

– Low risk prospects are risked too high.

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Prospect prognosis and drilling results:
Analysis of discoveries from 1990-2002

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Your Main Target?

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 Thanks

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