PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG) 4 March 2022

Global Demand Is Still Promising

INDONESIA | COAL |INITIATION BUY
We initiate PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG) with buy recommendation. Our view MARKET PRICE: IDR 28,125
is that coal prices are still likely to remain stable at high prices and global demand is still TARGET PRICE: IDR 32,975
maintained. Meanwhile, the company's strategy to encourage Bharinto's production and POTENTIAL UPSIDE: 17.2%
start production from new mine sites can maintain future production at current levels.
COMPANY DATA
O/S SHARES (MN): 1.129.9
Investment Highlight MARKET CAP (IDR BN): 31,778.4
JCI WEIGHT (%) 0.31
52 - WK LO/HI (IDR): 11,425/29,275
Government Eased Export Ban Policy PAR VALUE (IDR): 500
In January, Indonesian government announced that it would stop coal exports due to low
MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS, %
domestic coal inventories. However, recently the government has revised its policy and has
Banpu Minerals (Singapore) 65.1%
reopened the ban for coal exports for companies that have complied with the Domestic Public 31.9%
Market Obligation (DMO) rules of 25%. Treasury Stock 3.0%

Kitadin Mine Site Closed and Graha Panca Karsa Starts the Production This Year PRICE VS. JCI
600.0%
One of the mining sites owned by the company, namely Kitadin (KTD) will end its mining
500.0%
activities in February this year due to the expiration of the Mining Business License (IUP). 400.0%
This can be an opportunity to reduce the high stripping ratio from the mine site. 300.0%
Meanwhile, this year ITMG is also targeting the Graha Panca Karsa (GPK) mine site to start 200.0%
its mining activities. 100.0%
0.0%
-100.0%
Russia-Ukraine Conflict 19-Feb-16 19-Feb-17 19-Feb-18 19-Feb-19 19-Feb-20 19-Feb-21 19-Feb-22

The crisis between Russia and Ukraine caused a spike in prices for energy commodities ITMG JCI
Source: PSI Research, Bloomberg
which is expected to occur in 1Q22. Concerns about disrupted natural gas supplies to the
European continent have pushed up prices for substitute energy commodities such as coal KEY FINANCIALS
and crude oil. As is known, Russia is a supplier of about 40% of the total natural gas needed US$ Mn FY20 FY21 FY22F FY23F
by the European continent. 13% of the supply passes through the territory of Ukraine.
Net Revenue 1,185 2,077 1,944 1 1,592
Key Risks Gross Profit 119 916 896 561
Net Profit 39 475 517 287
China and India Domestic Supply EPS, US$ 0.04 0.42 0.44 0.25
President of the People's Republic of China Xi Jinping efforts to meet the needs and stabilize
P/E, x 24.7 3.3 5.2 8.6
domestic coal prices pose a serious threat to the global demand outlook. China continues
to encourage domestic production by re-opening mine sites that were previously closed P/BV, x 1.3 1.3 2.0 1.8
due to high mining accidents and disasters. Meanwhile, India is also trying to boost ROE, % 4.7 39.6 38.1 20.5
domestic coal production in line with rising global coal prices. ROA, % 3.4 28.5 29.3 16.6
Source: PSI Research
Global Economic Slowdown
With China's economy predicted to be slower than the previous year, rising inflation in
some developed countries and geopolitical escalation that is still heating up, this year
global economic outlook is predicted to remain challenging. Meanwhile, the new variant of
covid 19 at the beginning of the year had limited economic activity in several countries.
Dustin Dana Pramitha (+62 21 57 900 800)
Valuation dustin@phillip.co.id
We initiate our Buy rating with a target price IDR 32,975 target price, corresponding to
17.2% potential upside which implies a 5.2x FY22F P/E Ratio. Key risks of our calls are
fluctuating coal price, global economic recovery and environmental issue.

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 PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk INITIATION

Company Background
PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG) is one of the energy companies in Indonesia that has a
focus on coal operations and coal sales which has been established since 1987. ITMG marked its
operational activities by acquiring PT Indominco Mandiri in 1988 which has a mine site in East
Kalimantan. It continued with pre-production in 1995 and started delivery through its permanent
facility in 1997.
At the beginning of its business activities, ITMG carried out mining activities through cooperation
with a government company, namely PT Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk (PTBA) with a concession area
to be exploited for an area of 99,920 hectares. Then in 2001, Banpu Minerals (Singapore) Pte. Ltd.
which has a holding company based in Thailand, entered as a major shareholder by acquiring share
ownership of 73.7% of the company's total shares before the divestment carried out in 2010 which
makes Banpu Minerals' ownership in ITMG currently at 65%.

In 2007, ITMG conducted an initial public offering on the Indonesia Stock Exchange by releasing its
8.7% shareholding to the public.

Following the acquisition of Banpu Minerals Pte.Ltd., in 2004 ITMG expanded its coal mining
business by acquiring PT Bharinto Ekatama concession located in Central Kalimantan. This was
followed by the acquisition of PT Jorong Barutama Greston concession in South Kalimantan and
the acquisition of a minority stake in PT Trubaindo Coal Mining located in East Kalimantan.

With the acquisition of several mining concessions, ITMG was able to increase its production
capacity to 18.4 million tons in 2020 and become one of the coal mining companies with the largest
production capacity in Indonesia.

Business Segment
Coal Mining
The company's main business is coal mining and sales with ownership of 6 mining locations spread
across East Kalimantan, South Kalimantan and Central Kalimantan. To support the distribution
chain of coal produced, ITMG has 5 ports including 3 large ports, namely Bontang Port, Balikpapan
Coal Terminal (BCT) Port and Jorong Port. Meanwhile, 2 other ports are located on the Mahakam
River, namely Bunyut Port and Embalut Port which reach the deepest mining sites. In addition,
ITMG has 2 coal loading points located in Muara Berau and Muara Jawa.

Figure 1. Mines & Port Location

Source: Company

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 PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk INITIATION

Indominco Mandiri (IMM). The largest mining sites owned by the company are in the areas of
Bontang, Kutai Kartanegara and East Kutai, East Kalimantan, which are run by PT Indominco
Mandiri. This mine site has a concession area of 24,121 Ha and has a license until March 31, 2028.
It has a production capacity up to 5.5 million tons (40.7% of total production contribution in 9M21).
Meanwhile, from this mining area, the company also recorded sales of 5.7 million tons (38.5% of
the total sales volume contribution in 9M21).

Trubaindo Coal Mining (TCM). The second largest mining location is in West Kutai, East Kalimantan
with a concession area of 22,687 hectares has a permit until February 27, 2023. From this mining
area, the company targets production of 4 million tons (19.3% of the total production contribution
in 9M21). In terms of sales volume, TCM recorded 2.5 million tons of sales in 9M2021 (16.9% of
total sales volume contribution).

Bharinto Ekatama (BEK). Located in the same area as TCM and in the North Barito area, Central
Kalimantan, BEK has an exploration area of 17,311 Ha and a production rate of 3.7 million tons
(27.4% of total production contribution in 9M21). This mining area managed by PT Bharinto
Ekatama has a Mining Business License (IUP) until June 2041. With reserves of 146 million tons and
a sales volume level of 3.7 million tons (25.0% of total sales volume in 9M21) is expected to be one
of the locations mines that can support ITMG's future production and sales.

Kitadin (KTD). The next location is owned by PT Kitadin which has an operational area of 2,973
hectares in East Kalimantan with a production level of 1 million tons (7.4% of total production in
9M21). The location will stop operating after the IUP which will expire in February 2022.

Jorong (JBG). The location owned by PT Jorong Barutama Greston has an operational area of 4.883
hectares with a production rate of 700 thousand tons (5.2% of total production in 9M21). JBG is
the only mine site located in South Kalimantan. This concession area is valid until December 2029.

Graha Panca Karsa (GPK). ITMG has a new mine site expected to start this year. Managed by PT
Graha Panca Karsa, this mine is located in East Kalimantan. GPK is a mining location that will
produce low-calorie coal of 3,900 Kkcal with a targeted production level of 1 million tons this year.
With the GPK, the company hopes to provide the market needs for low-calorie coal and diversify
the types of coal that previously focused on high-calorie coal.

Figure 2. ITMG’s Coal Production & Reserve by Locations

In November 2020, PT AKR Niaga Indonesia (a subsidiary of AKRA) and PETRONAS Chemicals
Marketing Sdn Bhd, a subsidiary of Petronas Chemical Group Berhad (PCG) established a joint
venture subsidiary, PT Anugerah Kimia Indonesia, to distribute chemicals. The joint venture
leverages the strengths of both companies to provide added value to Indonesia. Methanol will be
the first product distributed to customers in Indonesia.

Logistic Services
AKRA offers logistic services, including storage tank terminal, land and sea transportation, and port
handling. The logistic business is an integral part of AKRA's trading and distribution business that
enables the company to deliver petroleum and chemical products to its customers across the
country. Additionally, AKRA, through its subsidiaries also provide logistic services for third parties.

Source: Company

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 PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk INITIATION

Competitive Advantage
Well Managed Debt Ratio
ITMG is the company with the lowest Debt to Asset ratio among other competitors (Coal
companies) (30.7% in 9M21). ITMG efforts to maintain the number of short-term liabilities and
minimize long-term debt and interest expenses have succeeded in making the liability ratio well
managed in the range of 25-30% for the last 6 years. So that the company does not have the risk
of not being able to pay off its liabilities. In FY22F and FY23F, we project the debt to asset ratio to
be in the range of 23.1% and 19.0%, respectively.

Impressive Margin Ratio

ITMG was able to record a quite good gross margin ratio among its competitors (40.1% in 9M21).
Considering that ITMG has the highest stripping ratio among competitors, this does not reduce the
margin ratio performance. With a port location that reaches the company's deepest mining area
which can streamline transportation costs. In addition, the success of the efficiency carried out by
ITMG on other costs is also the reason that sales costs can be maintained at a good level. Thus, we
project in FY22F and FY23F GPM are in the range of 46.1% and 35.2%.

Figure 3. ITMG Debt to Asset vs Peers in 9M21 Figure 4. ITMG Gross Margin vs Peers in 9M21

76.9% 61.5%

40.1% 42.6%
37.8%
39.3%
31.8% 34.7% 26.1%
30.7%

ITMG BYAN PTBA ADRO INDY INDY ADRO ITMG PTBA BYAN
Source: PSI Research Source: PSI Research

Business Model
To support its main business, ITMG has 2 business models, such as:

Normal Shipment: That is by combining the company's coal production with coal from third parties
to meet demand from customers. ITMG has a purchase price contract to a third party "Off-take
Shipment" thus providing an opportunity to secure the purchase cost from fluctuations in world
coal prices.

Direct Shipment: ITMG also provides third party coal transportation services to customers. This
transportation service is supported by a port in South Sumatra.

Figure 5. Business Models

Source: Company

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 PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk INITIATION

A Huge Dividend Payout Ratio

In FY21, ITMG distributed dividends to shareholders of USD 106.7 million (vs. USD 64.8 million in
FY20) or equivalent to IDR 1,346/Share (vs. 804.8/Share in FY20). The increase was due to a surge
in net profit by 1.105% YoY. This raised DPS by 67.3%.

If we compare with several competitors in the latest dividend distribution, ITMG’s dividend ratio
is one of the largest among other coal productions companies, which indicates that the company
has loyalty to its shareholders. In our projections in FY22F and FY23F the ITMG's dividend payout
ratio is at the level of 77.1% and 85.1%, reflecting a dividend per share of 4,921/share and
3,011/share respectively. the decline in our FY23F projections is caused by lower net profit due to
lower ASP expectations.

Besides the high dividend payout ratio among its competitors, ITMG also has a relatively high
dividend yield ratio. In dividend distribution for the financial year 2020, the company recorded a
dividend yield of 3.6%, only losing to ADRO with 5.5%. Meanwhile, we project that in FY22F the
dividend yield will be in the range of 14.9% if we look at the value of the dividend payout ratio, it
reflects the dividend per share of 4,921/share.

Figure 6. ITMG Dividend Yield vs Peers in 9M21 Figure 7. ITMG Dividend Payout Ratio vs Peers in 9M21
5.5%
103.0%
91.3% 92.6%

3.6%
3.3%
3.0%

35.0%

PTBA BYAN ITMG ADRO PTBA BYAN ITMG ADRO

Source: PSI Research Source: PSI Research

Industry Overview

Global Coal Demand

The 2021 United Nations Climate Change (COP26) member agreed to reduce the use of coal in its
energy mix gradually to tackle the current climate change. Several countries are starting to plan
environmentally friendly power plants to replace coal in the long term. However, advances in solar
and other clean energy technologies have lagged behind to keep up with electricity demand, as
the economy rebounded from the Covid crisis. China as one of the world's largest coal users
recorded thermal coal consumption in 2021 of 58 g/KWh or far from hydropower energy
consumption of 3.3 g/KWh or still higher than other renewable energy of 47.5 g/KWh. (Figure 8.)

With China's energy mix relying on coal for 56.8% of its total energy supply coupled with more
stable economic growth, we think the level of demand for coal will still be quite high in the future
considering the role of renewable energy which is still unable to replace coal at this time.

Meanwhile, the other biggest consumer India still relies on coal for its energy needs. As of January
22, India was recorded to have the largest energy mix from coal at 76.6% with an energy
production growth rate of +9.2% YoY. The role of coal is expected to continue to be India's
mainstay amid manufacturing conditions that are still at an expansionary level. Meanwhile,
according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), India's economic growth in FY22F is projected
to be in the range of 9.0%.

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 PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk INITIATION

Figure 8. China Power Consumption Figure 9. China Power Consumption Breakdown

g/KWh KWh
70.0 8,000 Industrial Consumption Growth (CAGR) 4.3%

60.0 Covid 19 Shutdown 7,000 Lockdown

50.0 6,000 +10.2%
5,000
40.0
4,000
30.0
3,000
20.0
2,000
10.0 1,000
- -
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Thermal Consumption Rate Hydropower Consumption Rate Others China Total Energy Cons. Household Energy Consumption Industry Energy Consumption
Source: Bloomberg, PSI Research Source: Bloomberg, PSI Research

Figure 8. India Power Generation Figure 9. India’s PMI & GDP Growth
Qty. (MU) %
Sources Jan-22 Jan-21 Jan-20 60.0 10.0
Coal 88,642 88,204 81,170 55.0 9.0
8.0
Lignite 2,340 1,976 2,519 50.0
7.0
Hydro 7,849 8,329 9,010 45.0 6.0
Nuclear 3,665 2,906 2,994 40.0 5.0
Gas, Naptha & Diesel 1,887 2,922 3,171 35.0 4.0
RES (Wind, Solar, Biomass & Others) 11,374 10,238 9,631 3.0
30.0
2.0
25.0 1.0
20.0 -
May

May
Mar

Nov

Mar
Feb

Nov
Aug

Aug
Feb

Apr

Jun
Jul

Sep

Apr

Jun
Jul

Sep
Jan

Jan

Jan
Oct

Oct
Dec

Dec
2020 2021 2022

India PMI India GDP (RHS)

Source: Ministry of Coal (GOI), PSI Research Source: Bloomberg, IMF, PSI Research

Rise in Consumption from Export Destination Countries

Since the opening of economic activity in May 2020, Japan has shown better economic activity.
Since its deepest decline in 3Q20, Japan Manufacturing PMI has continued to improve until the
latest data in January 2022 was recorded at 55.4 or the fastest since 2014. The increase in
economic activity pushed coal imports to increase by +8.9% from the lowest point in 3Q20. The
increase was due to coal being the country's second largest energy source with a share of 27.2%
of the total energy mix.

Meanwhile, with the manufacturing sector increasing and looking at the sector's energy needs in
the future, Japan's coal imports have room to grow more positively. This is an opportunity for ITMG
to see Japan as the second export destination after China.

Figure 10. Japan Coal Imports Figure 11. Japan Energy Consumption Breakdown
('000 tons)
60.0 19000

50.0 18000 1.9%

Commercial Industry
40.0 17000 27.2 48.2% Manufacturing
% 50.4%
30.0 16000

20.0 15000
71.0
10.0 14000 %
- 13000
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Industry
2019 2020 2021 Residential
Transportation
Japan Manufacturing PMI Japan Coal Import (RHS)
Source: Bloomberg, PSI Research Source: Japan Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, PSI Research

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 PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk INITIATION

Figure 11. SEA Nation’s Coal Imports Figure 12. SEA Nation’s Manufacturing PMI
metric ton 60.0
7,000,000
55.0
6,000,000
5,000,000 50.0

4,000,000 45.0
3,000,000
40.0
2,000,000
35.0
1,000,000
- 30.0

Nov-20
Nov-19

Nov-21
Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Sep-19

Sep-20

Sep-21
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19

Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20

Jan-21
Mar-21
May-21
Nov-19

Nov-20

Nov-21
Sep-20
Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Sep-19

Sep-21
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19

Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20

Jan-21
Mar-21
May-21
Philippines Coal Import Malaysia Coal Import Philippines Manufacturing PMI Vietnam Manufacturing PMI
Vietnam Coal Import Thailand Coal Import Malaysia Manufacturing PMI Thailand Manufacturing PMI

Source: Bloomberg, PSI Research Source: Bloomberg, PSI Research

Southeast Asia's regional coal demand, especially several ITMG export destination countries,
showed an improving condition after the majority of them recorded a decline in early 2021 due to
the spread of the new variant of the Covid 19 "Delta" virus. Of the 4 countries in the Southeast
Asia region, Thailand posted the highest increase in coal imports of +294.9% throughout 2021.
Meanwhile, the second country with the largest coal import growth came from the Philippines at
+184.7%. Followed by Malaysia and Vietnam with coal import rates of +53.3% and +49.3%
respectively.

Manufacturing activity in these 4 countries also looks to be improving after its fall in 1Q20. Of the
4 countries, only Thailand still experienced manufacturing activity that was not yet expansive
throughout last year at the level of 49.5. Meanwhile, others recorded expansionary manufacturing
activity above the 50.0 average. In line with manufacturing data, the economic growth of the 4
ASEAN regional countries also recorded positive growth with an average economic growth of
+5.5% YoY in 4Q21.

Boost From Domestic Consumption

The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources set Indonesia’s Coal Reference Price (HBA) at USD
158.5/mt (+109% YoY) in January 2022. The HBA price is the basis for determining the prices of 77
Indonesian coal products and calculating the amount of royalty producers have to pay for each
metric ton of coal sold.

The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources estimates Indonesia requires 121.3 million MT of
thermal coal supply from the producers for the domestic market in 2022 in order to fulfill local
energy needs and avert a shortfall seen in December 2021. While the power plants of state-run
Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) need 50.9 mt during the year, independent power producers
(IPPs), require 70.4 mt.

Figure 12. HBA vs ASP Figure 13. Domestic Coal Fired Power Plant Demand
US$/mt mn ton
250.00 180
156.0 161.4
160 148.1
138.4
200.00 140 129.4 137.4 125.5 132.2
121.3
120 113.0
150.00
100
100.00 80
60
50.00
40
20
-
0
Sep-20
Sep-17

Sep-18

Sep-19

Sep-21
May-17

May-18

May-19

May-20

May-21
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21

Jan-22

2021A 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F 2029F 2030F
PLN IPP
HBA ASP
Source: Bloomberg, PSI Research Source: Kementerian ESDM, PSI Research
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 PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk INITIATION

Robust Export Volume

The export market is the biggest destination for the company's coal sales. In FY21 the ITMG
recorded a sales volume of 15.4 million tons (76.6% of total sales). Meanwhile, the largest export
destinations in that period came from China by 27% (5.5 mt) followed by Japan 16% (3.1 mt) and
the Philippines 9% (1.8 mt). Global economic conditions, especially in developed countries, are the
main influence on the company's performance. By relying on the export market and coal
commodity prices in 2022, we are confident that ITMG can again record good sales performance
considering the level of global coal demand that will still be high and the company's ability to cost
efficiency represents a good opportunity to record positive profit.

Figure 14. Export Destination by Country

Source: Company

Business Risks
China & India’ Economy to Moderately Expand
As the world's largest coal consumers, changes in economic conditions in China and India will have
a very significant impact on the projected world coal price. One of the risks that can slow down
the country's current economic growth is the increase in cases of COVID-19 and its spread which
has the potential to slow down economic activity. For FY22F, the International Monetary Fund
estimates that China's economy will grow at a slower rate of +4.8% YoY while India is projected to
stagnate at +9.0% YoY.
China's manufacturing activity again signaled a slowdown in January to its lowest point in 23
months. Meanwhile, India posted expansionary manufacturing activity but there was a slight
decline in production levels.

Figure 15. China & India GDP Growth Figure 16. Global Coal Consumption By 2021

India Europe
% YoY
12.7% 5.4%
20.0 US
15.0 6.6%
Rest of
10.0
World
5.0 11.1%
-
(5.0)
(10.0)
(15.0) Other Asia
(20.0) 12.1%
(25.0)
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q China
52.1%
2019 2020 2021
China India
Source: Bloomberg, Research PSI Source: International Energy Agency, Research PSI

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 PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk INITIATION

Domestic Supply Threatens Global Producers

The Chinese government continues to strive to meet domestic coal needs by increasing its
production. This effort occurred after China lacked coal supply last year due to the closure of main
mines and the restriction of coal supply from Australia. This forced the Chinese government to
close parts of the manufacturing sector due to low energy supply amid the electricity demand in
winter.
In December 21, China produced 384.7 Mt or an increase of +3.7% MoM. Meanwhile, India's
second largest consumer country recorded production of 71.1 mt, an increase of +5.2% MoM.
Meanwhile, the position of the Qinhuangdao Port Thermal Coal Price at the beginning of the first
week of February 22 was CNY 1.055/mt or US$ 166.1/mt. This position is still lower than the
Newcastle Mar'22 contract of US$ 216/mt. Efforts to increase China's domestic production have
succeeded in stabilizing domestic coal prices, which were once above world coal prices. In the next
year, the Chinese government's plan to continue to meet the needs of coal fired power plants and
maintain domestic production levels could be an unfavorable sentiment for global coal prices.

Figure 17. China & India Coal Production Figure 18. Qinhuangdao Coal Price vs Newcastle (Mar’22)
mn ton US$/mt
3,500.00 250.0

3,000.00
200.0
2,500.00

2,000.00 150.0

1,500.00
100.0
1,000.00
50.0
500.00

- -
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 1/2/2019 1/2/2020 1/2/2021 1/2/2022
China Total Coal Production India Total Coal Production Newcastle Coal Qinhuangdao Thermal Coal Price (US$)
Source: Bloomberg, Ministry of Coal (GOI), PSI Research Source: Bloomberg, PSI Research

Climate Challenges
In the climate outlook report issued by the Indonesia Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics
Agency, it is stated that the rainy season in some parts of Indonesia will enter a phase that tends
to be higher than normal conditions in the 1981-2010 period. Meanwhile, based on the
distribution of monthly rainfall, in the period January to October in general it will be higher than
normal conditions. Meanwhile, in the first semester, the ENSO climate anomaly in the Pacific
Ocean was still in the La Nina phase. Climatic conditions have the potential to affect the level of
coal production so higher rainfall conditions can be a challenge for the company to meet this year's
production target.

Figure 19. Indonesia Climate Outlook 2022

Source: Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi dan Geofisika

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 PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk INITIATION

Higher Stripping Ratio

In an average of 5 years, ITMG has a stripping ratio of around 10.1x and during that period ITMG
recorded an average strip ratio increase of +4.3%. However, in its journey ITMG was able to
stabilize the stripping ratio at around of 10x in the 2017-2021 period. The company has the
opportunity to reduce the stripping ratio this year by closing the Kitadin (KTD) mine site which does
have a Mining Business License which expires in Feb22. Kitadin itself is indeed a mining location
with the highest stripping ratio among other mining locations. Furthermore, ITMG is also targeting
a new mining location, namely GPK, which is projected to have an average stripping ratio of 5.0x.
We project that in FY22F the stripping ratio will be in the range of 7.4x, down from the realized
stripping ratio in FY21 of 10.5x.

Figure 20. ITMG Stripping Ratio Breakdown

x
-
13.1
- -
7.8 8.2
5.0 5.0
9.7 18.5
12.1 8.4 8.4
- -
11.6 11.2 11.2
9.9 11.6
9.8 8.0 6.6 8.5 8.5

11.4 11.1 11.2 11.4 11.0

2019 2020 2021 2022F 2023F

Indominco Bharinto Trubaindo Kitadin Jorong GPK
Source: PSI Research

Financial Highlights

Expecting Lower ASP But Still in High Range

The easing of sentiment regarding tight supply from coal producing countries and a surge in
demand that has started to return to normal have made Newcastle coal prices expected to be
lower than the previous year. In FY22F, we estimate sales volume to grow +14.4% YoY to 23.0
million tons. However, we project sales to decline by -6.4% YoY to US$ 1.944 million due to lower
of coal price expectation of US$ 130/mt. Thus, with the decline in coal prices, we estimate the
company's ASP to be in the range of US$ 84.5/t (vs. 103.2/t in FY21).

Meanwhile, we project a positive growth on net profit of +8.7% YoY to US$ 517 million due to
lower stripping ratio that could depress the total production cost. With the efficiency in cost and
higher net income, we expect the company's EPS to be in the range of US$ 0.44/shares or IDR
6,378/share (+5.6% YoY).

Figure 21. Sales & Net Income

US$ mn US$ Thousand
2,500.00 600,000

500,000
2,000.00

400,000
1,500.00
300,000
1,000.00
200,000

500.00
100,000

- -
2019 2020 2021 2022F 2023F
Total Sales Net Income (RHS)
Source: PSI Research

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 PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk INITIATION

Well-Managed Debt Ratio

In the last 5 years, ITMG was able to maintain the debt to equity ratio at an average of 40.6%. This
figure is lower than the average of competitors including ADRO, PTBA, and BYAN by 56.9%. For
FY22F and FY23F, we project the debt to equity ratio to be in the range of 30.0% and 23.5%,
respectively. We predict that the decline is due to the company's long-term debt plan and a healthy
level of cash flow to meet the expansion needs in the future. Meanwhile, from net gearing, the
ITMG has recorded prudence because in the last 5 years the net gearing ratio shows that the cash
owned by the company can cover the total interest-bearing debt. For FY22F and FY23F, we project
the net gearing to be in the range of -0.65x and -0.74x.
In addition to debt ratios that are well maintained, the company's liquidity ratio also seems to
show an average increase every year. In FY21, ITMG recorded an increase in cash and current ratios
to 2.54x and 2.71x, respectively. Meanwhile, for FY22F, we project the current ratio and quick ratio
to be in the range of 3.9x and 3.5x. A well-managed liquidity ratio reduces the company's risk of
defaulting on short-term debt with cash or current assets.

Figure 22. Debt Ratios Figure 23. Liquidity Ratios

40.0% - x
5.00
35.0% (0.10) 4.50
30.0% (0.20) 4.00
3.50
25.0% (0.30)
3.00
20.0% (0.40) 2.50
15.0% (0.50) 2.00
1.50
10.0% (0.60)
1.00
5.0% (0.70)
0.50
0.0% (0.80) -
2019 2020 2021 2022F 2023F 2019 2020 2021 2022F 2023F
Debt to Equity Net Gearing (RHS) Current Ratio Quick Ratio
Source: PSI Research Source: PSI Research

Cash Flow Ratios

In FY22F and FY23F, we estimate that the company's ability to generate cash from Its sales will be
in the range of 0.22x and 0.24x, respectively, due to projected sales contraction in FY22F and FY23F
considering lower ASP compared to FY21. The same thing also happened to the ITMG asset
efficiency ratio which we projected to be depressed in FY22F and FY23F to 0.25x and 0.22x,
respectively. However, the overall projected ratio is above the average due to the projected
operating expenses which tend to be lower than the previous year due to the stripping ratio which
is likely to be lower.

Figure 24. Operating Cash Flow Ratio Figure 25. Asset Efficiency Ratio
US$ Thousand US$ Thousand
2,000,000 0.38
2,000,000 0.30
1,800,000 1,800,000
0.25 0.33
1,600,000 1,600,000
1,400,000 1,400,000
0.20 0.28
1,200,000 1,200,000
1,000,000 0.15 1,000,000 0.23
800,000 800,000
0.10 0.18
600,000 600,000
400,000 400,000
0.05 0.13
200,000 200,000
- - - 0.08
2019 2020 2021 2022F 2023F 2019 2020 2021 2022F 2023F
Net Revenue Operating Cash Flow Ratio (RHS) Total Assets Asset Efficiency Ratio (RHS)
Source: PSI Research Source: PSI Research

Page | 11 | PHILLIP SEKURITAS INDONESIA

 PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk INITIATION

Initiate Coverage with a BUY Rating and TP of IDR 32,975 Per Share
We initiate our coverage on PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk with BUY rating as the outlook for
coal is still positive in our view, although there are projected prices that tend to be lower than last
year.

In addition, domestic demand for coal has the chance to increase along with more stable economic
activities that can support ITMG sales. Meanwhile, some of the company's export destinations
have a fairly positive view with indications of a better economy. This could bring an opportunity
for the them to increase sales volume again this year.

The fundamental outlook for seaborne thermal coal prices is also strong as the Ukraine crisis raises
expectations that European buyers will start loading up on the fossil fuel for fear that a standoff
between Russia and western nations will cut off gas supplies.

Assuming long-term growth in EBIT of -2.8%, the risk premium is 2.8%, beta in around 1.2x, and
WACC of 7.7% we get a fair price based on the DCF method of US$ 2.3/share. We continue to use
the projection of the Rupiah exchange rate against the US Dollar as stated in the 2022 State Budget
(APBN 2022) of IDR 14,350 and by implementing this value, the fair value in Rupiah is IDR
32,975/share.

Figure 19. Forward P/E Band

x
30.00

25.00

20.00

15.00

10.00

5.00

-
19-Feb-16 19-Feb-17 19-Feb-18 19-Feb-19 19-Feb-20 19-Feb-21 19-Feb-22

Fwd P/E AVG P/E P/E+ 1sd P/E + 2sd P/E - 1sd P/E - 2sd

Source: PSI Research

Page | 12 | PHILLIP SEKURITAS INDONESIA

 PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk INITIATION

Financial Summary

US$ Thousand 2019 2020 2021 2022F 2023F

Assets
Total Current Assets 469,389.0 409,638.0 988,024.0 1,187,090.1 1,181,171.4
Total Non-Current Assets 739,652.0 748,991.0 678,215.0 577,844.5 548,587.2
Total Assets 1,209,041.0 1,158,629.0 1,666,239.0 1,764,935.2 1,729,758.6
LIABILITIES
Total Current Liabilities 233,288.0 207,300.0 364,743.0 303,308.2 246,445.0
Total Non-Current Liabilities 91,288.0 105,039.0 99,937.0 103,674.6 83,060.9
Total Liabilities 324,576.0 312,339.0 464,680.0 406,982.8 329,505.9
Total Equity 884,465.0 846,290.0 1,201,559.0 1,357,952.4 1,400,252.7
Total Liabilities & Equity 1,209,041.0 1,158,629.0 1,666,239.0 1,764,935.2 1,729,758.6

US$ Thousand 2019 2020 2021 2022F 2023F

Income Statement
Net Revenue 1,715,592.0 1,185,336.0 2,076,813.0 1,944,310.4 1,592,096.7
Cost of Revenue (1,388,904.0) (986,186.0) (1,160,280.0) (1,048,175.1) (1,031,402.2)
Gross Profit 326,688.0 199,150.0 916,533.0 896,135.3 560,694.5
Profit Before Income Tax 185,908.0 72,553.0 621,089.0 675,923.7 371,646.7
Net Profit After Tax 126,502.0 37,828.0 475,390.0 516,865.7 286,598.6
Income Tax Expenses (59,406.0) (34,725.0) (145,699.0) (159,058.0) (85,048.1)
Net Income 129,426.0 39,469.0 475,570.0 517,061.4 286.707.1

US$ Thousand 2019 2020 2021 2022F 2023F

Cash Flow
Total Operating Cash Flow 110,909.0 168,323.0 535,012.0 434,791.5 378,681.4
Total Investing Cash Flow (112,827.0) (52,887.0) 33,855.0 52,758.7 (18,957.0)
Free Cash Flow (1,918.0) 115,436.0 568,867.0 487,550.2 359,724.4
Total Financing Cash Flow (207,089.0) (43,186.0) (109,356.0) (382,165.9) (270,155.3)
Net Cash Flow (209,007.0) 72,250.0 459,511.0 105,384.2 89,569.1

2019 2020 2021 2022F 2023F

Growth Ratio
Net Revenue -14.5% -30.9% 75.2% -6.4% -18.1%
Gross Profit -2.4% -29.0% 17.7% -9.7% -1.6%
Net Income -50.6% -69.5% 1104.9% 8.7% -44.6%
Profitability Ratio
GPM 19.0% 16.8% 44.1% 46.1% 35.2%
OPM 10.8% 6.1% 29.9% 34.8% 23.3%
NPM 7.5% 3.3% 22.9% 26.6% 18.0%
ROA 10.7% 3.4% 28.5% 29.3% 16.6%
ROE 14.6% 4.7% 39.6% 38.1% 20.5%
Liquidity Ratio
Current Ratio 2.0 2.0 2.7 3.9 4.8
Cash Ratio 1.6 1.7 2.5 3.5 4.4
Leverage Ratio
Debt to Equity 36.7% 36.9% 38.7% 30.0% 23.5%
Net Gearing (0.1) (0.1) (0.6) (0.7) (0.7)
Market Value Ratio
P/E 6.9 24.7 3.3 5.2 8.6
P/BV 1.1 1.3 1.3 2.0 1.8

Stripping Ratio 10.1 9.8 10.5 7.4 8.8

Page | 13 | PHILLIP SEKURITAS INDONESIA

 PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk INITIATION

Important Information
Rating for Sectors:
Overweight : We expect the industry to perform better than the primary market index (JCI) over the next 12 months.
Neutral : We expect the industry to perform in line with the primary market index (JCI) over the next 12 months.
Underweight : We expect the industry to under-perform the primary market index (JCI) over the next 12 months.

Rating for Stocks:

Buy : The stock is expected to give total return (price appreciation + dividend yield) of > +10% over the next12 months.
Hold : The stock is expected to give total return of > 0% to ≤ +10% over the next 12 months.
Sell : The stock is expected to give total return of < 0% over the next 12 months.
Outperform : The stock is expected to do slightly better than the market return. Equal to “moderate buy”
Underperform : The stock is expected to do slightly worse than the market return. Equal to “moderate sell”

Analyst Certification
The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research
report accurately reflect their personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers. The research analyst(s) also certify that no part of
their compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.

Disclaimers
This document has been prepared for general circulation based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable. But we do not make any
representations as to its accuracy or completeness. Phillip Sekuritas Indonesia (PSI) accept no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss
arising from any use of this document or any solicitations of an offer to buy or sell any securities. PSI and its directors, officials and/or employees may
have positions in, and may affect transactions in securities mentioned herein from time to time in the open market or otherwise and may receive
brokerage fees or act as principal or agent in dealing with respect to these companies. PSI may also seek investment banking business with companies
covered in its research reports. As result investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this
report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

Country-Specific Disclaimers
Australia: This report is produced by PT Phillip Sekuritas Indonesia and is being distributed in Australia by Phillip Capital Limited (Australian Financial
Services Licence No. 246827). This report contains general securities advice and does not take into account your personal objectives, situation and
needs. Please read the Disclosures and Disclaimers set out above. By receiving or reading this report, you agree to be bound by the terms and limitations
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Disclosure
Phillip Sekuritas Indonesia, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Sekuritas Indonesia, including but not limited to its officers, directors,
employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may provide an array of financial services to a large number of corporations in Indonesia
and worldwide, including but not limited to commercial / investment banking activities (including sponsorship, financial advisory or underwriting
activities), brokerage or securities trading activities. Phillip Sekuritas Indonesia, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Sekuritas Indonesia,
including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may have participated in or invested in
transactions with the issuer(s) of the securities mentioned in this report, and may have performed services for or solicited business from such issuers.
Additionally, Phillip Sekuritas Indonesia, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Sekuritas Indonesia, including but not limited to its officers,
directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may have provided advice or investment services to such companies and
investments or related investments, as may be mentioned in this report.

Investment Banking and Advisory activities: In the preceding 12 months, Phillip Sekuritas Indonesia and/or an affiliate is not involved in any investment
banking activities with PT. Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk.
Market Maker and Liquidity Provider: Phillip Sekuritas Indonesia and/or an affiliate is not a market maker / liquidity provider in securities issued by
PT. Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk.
Other Financial Interests: Phillip Sekuritas Indonesia owns 0 shares in PT. Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk.

Analyst’s Disclosure:
Share Ownership: The analyst who wrote and published this report owns 0 shares in PT. Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk.
Affiliation: The analyst who wrote and published this report is not affiliated with PT. Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk and any of the affiliates of PT. Indo
Tambangraya Megah Tbk.

Page | 14 | PHILLIP SEKURITAS INDONESIA


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Page | 15 | PHILLIP SEKURITAS INDONESIA
 PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk INITIATION

Atria@Sudirman, Level 23B, Jl. Jendral Sudirman Kav 33A, Jakarta, 10220 - Indonesia
Telp. (62-21) 57 900 800, Fax. (62-21) 57 900 809, Email: customercare@phillip.co.idWebsite: www.phillip.co.id | www.poems.co.id | www.poems.web.id

Komp. Ruko Mega Grosir Cempaka Mas Mangga Dua

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Blok D No. 7 Jakarta, 10640 Jl. Mangga Dua Selatan Jakarta 10730
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Puri Roxy
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Telp. (0281) 626 899 Telp. (0274) 557367
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Page | 16 | PHILLIP SEKURITAS INDONESIA

 PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk INITIATION

Jayapura Banjarmasin
Kantor Perwakilan (KP) BEI Jayapura - Komp. Ruko Pasifik Permai Blok. H-19, Jayapura Jl. A. Yani Km. 5,5 No. 2A
99112, Papua Banjarmasin 70249
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Telp. (0911) 382 3336 Telp. (061) 457 4033, 457 4055
E-Mail: rahma@phillip.co.id E-Mail: adminmedan@phillip.co.id

Page | 17 | PHILLIP SEKURITAS INDONESIA