Regression Analysis for Accidents on Motorways (M2): A Suitable

Selection for String Type Data

Submitted by
Abeeha Nadeem
Aiman Rehman
Durab Ghani
Mehtab M. Irshad
Nasrullah

Submitted to
Dr. Javed Iqbal
Due Date: 30/12/2023

National University of Science and Technology, Islamabad

School of Civil and Environment Engineering (SCEE)
Institute of Geographic System (IGIS)
Contents
ABSTRACT..................................................................................................................................................3

1 INTRODUCTION..................................................................................................................4

2 LITERATURE REVIEW………………………………………………………………….
3 OBJECTIVES………………………………………………………………………………
4 METHODOLOGY.................................................................................................................7

4.1 Study area........................................................................................................................7

4.2 Dataset..............................................................................................................................8

4.3 Data Processing...............................................................................................................9

5 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION.............................................................................................9

6 CONCLUSION ....................................................................................................................10

7 RECOMMANDATIONS………………………………………………………………….
8 REFRENCES........................................................................................................................10
 DEDICATION
We dedicate this research work to our parents and siblings who always loved and supported
us. We appreciate their assistance and encouragement. We also want to express our gratitude to
our teachers, who assisted, collaborated, and mentored us during our research.
 ACKMOWLEDGEMENTS

During our research, we owe a debt of gratitude to many people for their essential
contributions, encouragement, unwavering support, and enthusiastic participation.

We would like to thank our Head of Department, Dr. Javed Iqbal, Institute of Geographic
Information System, National University of Science and Technology, Islamabad for his inspired
guidance, dynamic supervision, constructive criticism, encouragement, and advice. We are also
grateful to him for allowing us to work our own way and giving us the freedom to move on with
this project. This undertaking would not have been possible without his direction. We would like
to thank Engr. Muhammad Sajjad Hassan Department of Civil Engineering University of
Engineering and Technology Taxila, to share his M.Sc. Research basis data of accidents with us
for further Modelling process in our term project.

We also appreciate our family and friends support, encouragement, unending love,
support, and prayers, which have always been a source of inspiration and wisdom for us long the
path.
 ABSTRACT
The Motorway (M2) connecting Lahore to Islamabad is a vital lifeline for transportation. As a
major transportation artery, the M2 corridor plays a pivotal role in connecting two major cities,
shaping economic activities and daily commutes, but accidents on this route present a complex
challenge. Existing studies primarily rely on quantitative methods for accident analysis, often
overlooking crucial string-type data that encapsulates the unique contextual factors influencing
accidents. String-type data, encompassing variables like road conditions, weather, and vehicle
types, is a goldmine of information yet to be fully explored in the context of M2 accidents. Our
focus is to bridge the existing research gap by developing robust regression models that capture
the nuances of string-type data, thereby providing a more comprehensive insight into M2
accidents. For this we have used Linear Regression Analysis in Excel, GMDH shell for advanced
analysis, Poisson regression in SPSS and R for statistical Rigor. GMDH Shell exhibits higher
Adjusted R-Squared (0.780) compared to Excel (0.631), indicating better explanatory power.
1 INTRODUCTION
The M-2 Motorway or the Lahore–Islamabad Motorway is a north–south motorway in Pakistan,
connecting Rawalpindi/Islamabad to Lahore, and is the first motorway to have been built in
South Asia. Lahore and Islamabad. With a length of approximately 367 kilometers, the
Motorway provides a fast and efficient way for travelers to move between these two urban
centers. In this post, we will delve into the history of the Lahore-Islamabad Motorway, its
features and amenities, and how it has impacted the economic and social development of the
region. Whether you are a resident of Pakistan or simply interested in learning about this vital
infrastructure project, we hope you will find this post informative and engaging.

This Study presents a method by which the accident-prone locations on roads, commonly termed
as accident blackspots, can be identified. Motorway (M-2) connecting Lahore to Islamabad, one
of the major motorways of Pakistan has been selected for study. The reasons for the accidents
can be attributed to the lack of driving skill, lack of education, economic values, lack of signage,
geometric design problems and improper design of pedestrian crossing. There are however, other
factors, which contribute directly or indirectly to the accidents include road, vehicle, road user
and environmental factors.

2 LITERATURE REVIEW

An overview of literature reveals a prime focus on quantitative methods for accident analysis on
various motorways. Existing studies share a common thread in emphasizing numerical variables
in regression models, neglecting the richness of string-type data. A critical gap emerges in the
treatment of string-type data, particularly in the context of the M2 from Lahore to Islamabad.
Limited studies delve specifically into the M2 corridor, and those that do often underutilize the
potential insights embedded in string-type data. Notable string-type variables include road
conditions, weather patterns, vehicle types, and driver behaviors—elements crucial for
understanding accidents in the region. Many studies fail to address the challenges associated with
string-type data, leading to oversimplified models that might not accurately represent the
dynamics of M2 accidents. Recognizing the need for a more comprehensive understanding of the
factors influencing accidents, researchers are called upon to explore innovative methodologies.
Some studies provide theoretical frameworks but lack practical implementation strategies for
integrating string-type data effectively. Thus, the literature review highlights the existing gap in
leveraging string-type data in regression models specifically tailored for the Lahore to Islamabad
stretch of the M2.

3 OBJECTIVES
1. Evaluate and compare the effectiveness of linear regression models implemented in
Excel and GMDH Shell for predicting accidents on the Lahore to Islamabad stretch of
the M2 Motorway.
2. Compare the outcomes of Poisson regression models implemented in SPSS and R for
analyzing accident counts on the M2 corridor.
4 METHODOLOGY
Accident concentration is analyzed by the combination of accident severity at certain location in
the stretch of M2 Motorway. The methodology of data analysis of the accident in the light of
local factors is to determine the causes of the accident on motorways. Accident data of motorway
(M-2) was obtained from the National Highway and Motorway Police (NH&MP), responsible
for the administration and collection of accident data.

Figure 1 Flow chart representation of methodology

4.1 Study Area:

The M-2 Motorway or the Lahore–Islamabad Motorway is a north–south motorway in Pakistan,
connecting Rawalpindi/Islamabad to Lahore, and is the first motorway to have been built in
South Asia. Lahore and Islamabad, with a length of approximately 367 kilometers.

Figure 3 Study Area

Figure 2 Study Area

4.2 Data Collection:

4.3 Data Stats:
Comprehensive data collection as provided by Motorway Police was used on accidents along the
Lahore to Islamabad stretch of the M2 Motorway, incorporating variables such as road
conditions, weather, and vehicle types, causes associated with accident, damage type, day/night
analysis and weekday/weekend analysis. Data is present in Excel sheet and in the form of string
to convert into Ranked. Ranked values start from 1 and 1 for the highest values and so on.
 Figure 4 Year & Month-wise Accidents Distribution

The data used for the analysis has been taken from the National Highway and Motorways Police
(NH&MP) from years 2010 to 2020. In Figure 3 years-wise distributions, more accidents
occurred in the year 2015 (272 accidents) which is 15.7% of total accidents (1731) Ranked as 1
and the lowest number of accidents occurred in year 2014 which is (92 accidents) and ranked as
10.

Figure 5 Day/Night & Weekday/Weekend accidents distribution

From day/night analysis of accidents it was concluded that a greater number of accidents occur
during daytime (901 accidents) which is 52% of total accidents (1731) ranked as 1 while
remaining (830 accidents) which is 48 % of total accidents occurred during nighttime ranked as
2.

Type of Road Section

309(18%)

1422(82%
)
 Stright Road Section Curve Road Section

Weather Condition
204(12%)

1526(88%)

Figure Dry Wet condition & type of road section wise accident distribution
6Weather

From weather analysis of accidents, it was concluded that a greater number of accidents occurred
during dry period weather (1526 accidents) which is 88% of total accidents (1731) ranked as 1
while the remaining (204 accidents) which is 12% of total accidents occurred during wet period
weather ranked as 2.

Figure 7 Vehicle type & no of accidents

A vehicle type engaged in accidents analysis shows that many accidents occurred due to Car
(860 accidents) which is 49.68% of total accidents (1731) ranked as 1 than followed by truck and
so on.
 DAMAGE TYPE ASSOSIATED WITH INCIDENT

12%

38% FATAL
18%
MINOR INJURY
MAJOR INJURY
PDO

32%

Figure 8 Damage type associated with accidents.

The pie chart shows the percentage of damage type associated with an incident. 38% of the
accidents of the total (1731) resulted in Fatal ranked as 1 than 32% minor injury,18% major
injury and 12% resulted in property damage only and ranked as per occurrences.

Figure 9 Causes associated with accidents.

Provided causes in data analysis shows that more number of accidents occurred due to
carelessness driving (487 accidents) which is 28.1% of the total (1731 accidents) ranked as 1
while remaining ranked as per occurrences associated with them.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION