Macro Strategy

Macro Strategy
Liquidity Impetus
30 Oct 2023
Helmy Kristanto
Chief Economist and Macro Strategy
Head of Economic and Fixed Income Research
PT BRI Danareksa Sekuritas

Gedung BRI II Lt 23, Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav 44-46
Jakarta Pusat 10210 – Indonesia
@bridanareksa BRI Danareksa Sekuritas Phone 021-50914100
Key Summary – Liquidity Impetus (30 Oct)
Link: https://link.brights.id/brids/storage/28617/20231030-MacroStrategy.pdf
Post the European Central Bank’s decision to maintain interest rates at 4%, signalling a halt following a string of ten successive interest
rate hikes, the market’s focus will now shift to this week’s FOMC meeting. Currently, the probability of the Fed also keeping rates
unchanged is high with the market almost certain of no hike in rates. The term premium appeared to have stabilized last week, along
with the 10-year UST yield ending the week just below 4.9%. Furthermore, while the advance estimate for 3Q23 GDP growth standing
at 4.9% (annualized), the latest GDPNow forecast also points to deceleration of growth to 2.3% in 4Q23. The Fed will likely stick with
the narrative of "higher for longer" and emphasize data-dependent decisions, possibly refraining from providing specific guidance.
The market has started to respond to Bank Indonesia's decision to raise the 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate which has led to an increase in
money market yields with the 3-month Reverse Repo rate surging by 50 bps in the most recent auction. On a weighted average basis,
the average awarded rate for the SRBI (6–12-month tenors) also rose by 40 bps. The latest auction on 27 Oct saw an improvement
volume-wise (IDR5.6tn), but still considerably less than the average IDR14.1tn in Sept 23’s auction. Meanwhile, the Reverse Repo
volume remained stable in the range of IDR 10-20tn/auction. Such situations would indicate: 1. Liquidity is getting tighter and 2.
Market preference for shorter tenors. The latest excess liquidity in the banking sector has dropped to IDR 142.5tn in mid Oct (vs 4
weeks avg of DR215tn), indicating potentially faster higher rate transmission to the overall banking system.
The Ministry of Finance (MoF) has reported a reduced surplus of IDR 67.7 trillion for the 9M23 State Budget. While revenues are
aligned with our projections, government spending is ahead of our expectations with September standing out as the month with the
highest spending in 2023. Further acceleration on spending initiatives on rice aid and direct cash assistance is sufficient to offset the
impact of BI's recent rate hikes on economic growth (BI7DRR+25bps, equal to -0.08 ppt in GDP, ceteris paribus), and to maintain our
baseline GDP growth estimate of 5.06% for FY23. Additionally, the MoF anticipates that the recent stimulus package (rice aid, BLT, and
incentives for the property sector) will contribute 0.06 ppt to FY23 GDP growth, resulting in total GDP growth of 5.1%.
Fixed Income: Data from The Ministry of Finance (MoF) has noted that foreign ownership in domestic INDOGB continues to show an
outflow trend of IDR 4.55tn last week, with MTD outflow reached IDR 13.63tn. The banking sector also experienced outflows of IDR
5.93tn, which could be seen as an indication to raise liquidity while Mutual fund also recorded outflow of IDR 1.63tn. On the contrary, BI
inflow reached IDR5.4tn last week (MTD: IDR8.8tn) as part of its intervention measure while insurance and pension funds IDR 2.48tn
inflow. Equity: Foreign outflows persisted at a significant level during the 4th week of Oct 23, amounting to IDR2.8tn (vs IDR 2.7tn in the
3rd week), resulting in a notable 1.3% w-w fall in the JCI. The Big-4 Banks maintained their position as the primary source of outflows last
week, with BBRI experiencing its 11th consecutive week of outflows, totalling IDR 5.3tn.
-2-
Key Summary – Shift in Risk Factors (23 Oct)
We delve deeper into the impact on yields post a pivot by Bank Indonesia which hiked the BI7DRR by 25 bps to 6.0%. Historically, a rate
hike of 25bps has led to an average 35bps increase in the 10-year INDOGB yield between 2005-23. We adjust our 10-year INDOGB
yield target to a range of 6.75% - 7.30% in 2023 (prev: 6.1-6.6%), assuming a 10-year UST yield ranging from 4.30% - 5.30%. Looking
ahead to 2024, with the assumption of BI 7DRR rate cuts of 50-75bps and with the UST yield staying within the range of 3.50% -
4.50%, we expect the INDOGB yield to be in the range of 6.15% - 6.6%. We also expect the INDOGB and UST yields to move in the
range of 200-240bps for the remainder of 2023, and slightly higher in the range of 210-265bps in 2024.
UST yields surged further to the 5% level - after briefly retreating - during the outbreak of recent conflict in the Middle East. In our view,
this surge is largely attributed to the reemergence of the "term premium," which has turned positive for the first time since June
2021. The term premium represents additional compensation sought by long-term bond investors and tends to rise during periods of
heightened risk, and aside from geopolitical risk, a rising term premium can be attributed to two main factors: 1. uncertainty on the
terminal FFR, and 2. a substantial increase in UST supply. We opine that the the latter would be at the fore for rising yields as public
statements from FOMC members and in Jerome Powell's recent speech have bolstered confidence in a predicted rate pause in Nov.
The latest Beige report shows a minor change in the U.S. economy since September with the following key points: 1. While consumers
remain resilient, challenges are emerging; 2. Tourism is improving due to business travel, but consumer travel has slowed; 3. Credit
quality is stable, but delinquency rates are rising. 4. The near-term outlook is weakening, and businesses have mixed feelings about
the holiday shopping season; 5. Modest wage growth may lead to reduced consumption; 6. Inflationary risks are decreasing; and 7.
Businesses are struggling to pass on higher input costs to consumers, who are becoming more price-sensitive. The recent rise in long
term yields could also risk banking health in the US, as such, more stable monetary policy signalling is increasingly crucial, in our view.
Fixed Income: This global sentiment is also affecting the domestic market. The USDIDR exchange rate dropped by 1.22% last week to IDR
15,875 per USD, while the dollar index fell by 0.4%. The 10-year SBN yield surged by 32 basis points to 7.10% on October 20, 2023.
Concurrently, the CDS increased by 5 basis points to 101 basis points, and foreign investors withdrew another IDR 5.39 trillion. As
previously mentioned, BI intervention led to an increase in BI ownership of IDR 12.46 trillion last week. Equity: There were considerable
foreign outflows of IDR 2.3 tn in the 3rd week of Oct 2023 with the JCI down by 1.1% w-w. BBNI continued to see inflows for the sixth
week in a row, amounting to IDR 3.4 trillion. TLKM and FILM also consistently remained among the top inflow stocks. AMMN, INKP, and
UNTR also made it to the top inflows list. In contrast, the Big-4 Banks (excluding BBNI) and GOTO were among the top outflow stocks.
-3-
Key Summary – Ever Vigilant (16 Oct)
The market appears to be pricing in a more contained crisis in regards of geopolitical risk escalation, but volatility risk remains
increasingly high at this stage. The recent surge in yields is seen as an indication of tighter financial conditions, aiding the Fed to
achieve its objectives, and hence, greater expectations of a Pause. Long-term US Treasury yields declined by 13 bps last week, primarily
due to: (1) increased demand for bonds on investors’ flight-to-safety and (2) some dovish comments by FOMC members. INDOGB
yield also dropped 23 basis points, partly underpinned by BI's intervention as seen in the increase in Monetary Operations Outstanding,
reaching IDR 746tn as of 12 Oct, a 9-month high with Reverse Repo SBN and SRBI accounting for IDR577tn (77% of the total).
Indonesia's growth trajectory remains firm as seen in the latest IMF projection which paints a favourable growth trend, with GDP
growth expected to hold steady at 5% in 2023-24. This stands in stark contrast to the global growth slowdown, with growth expected
to drop to 2.9% in 2024 from 3.0% in 2023. This trend is widely regarded as a vote of confidence in Indonesia's domestic economic
resilience. On Key Risk, separate report from WB reveals that China’s weaker consumption and reduced investment would be the
primary risk to Indonesia’s growth as weak consumption and investment in China would trim China’s 2024 GDP growth by 0.73 ppt and
potentially reduce Indonesia’s annualized GDP by 0.2 ppt.
As the registration start date for the presidential and vice-presidential candidates approaches (October 19), political developments
will be in the spotlight. Based on various media publications, albeit still preliminary, we note the following in regard to the three
potential presidential candidates: 1. Prabowo (PS), he is placing a strong emphasis on "Self-Sufficiency," particularly in the realm of
food, water, and energy; 2. Ganjar (GP) is projecting a sense of "Continuity" and emphasising a focus on education and health, and 3.
Anies (AB), on the other hand, is advancing his campaign with a focus on equality. Next market focus: VP announcements.
Fixed Income: The 10-year INDOGB yield down from 7.01% to 6.79% last week, despite slight depreciation of IDR, hinting at plausible
intervention by BI. Indonesia's 5-year CDS dropped from 99bps to 95bps. Foreign outflow continues, with another IDR1.32tn outflow
while the banking sector witnessed an inflow of IDR10 trillion, as well as on insurance & pension funds, which add IDR810b position.
Conversely, there was an outflow of IDR1.23 trillion in mutual funds. Equity: In the second week of October 2023, foreign capital inflows
reached a modest IDR 124 billion, lifting the JCI 0.6% w-w. BBNI, TLKM, and FILM were at the forefront of inflows last week, followed by
AMRT and PGAS. BREN, a newly IPO company (listed on October 9, 2023) also made it into the top inflows list. In contrast, the Big-4
Banks (excluding BBNI), GOTO and MEDC were listed among the stocks experiencing outflows.
-4-
Key Summary – Navigating the Volatility (9 Oct)
The market has entered an intense period of volatility, with the 10-year INDOGB yield rising by 53 basis points in September. This
represents the highest monthly increase since the post-pandemic period began. In the absence of a policy rate hike by BI, such an
occurrence is indeed rare. Rate hikes and the currency outlook have been the key determinants of yield volatility and while the monthly
change in the correlation between the UST and INDOGB over the last 18 years stands at only 0.22, we believe that external factors are
responsible for the spike in INDOGB. With Fed’s "higher for longer" scenario, two major trends prevail: a bear steepening yield curve
and a rally in the DXY, and both factors explain the current yield volatility, as BI's rate outlook appears to remain stable.
On the yield, during the three high volatility episodes (May 2000 - Jan 2001, Jun 2006 - Sep 2007, and Dec 2018 - Jul 2019), the 10-year
UST Yield averaged 50bps below the FFR. Assuming the current FFR level of 5.50% remains unchanged, the UST Yield could potentially
reach 5.0%, while another 25bps hike in November would put the UST Yield at risk of rising further to 5.25%. In Indonesia, during the
four identified high volatility episodes (Dec 2005 - May 2006, Oct 2008 - Dec 2008 [GFC], Nov 2013 - Dec 2015, and Jan 2019 - Jun
2019), the 10-year INDOGB averaged 171bps above the BI Rate. Assuming BI maintains its current policy stance and with no
intervention, the worst-case scenario for the 10-year INDOGB yield could overshoot to 7.5%.
For the IDR - under the worst-case scenario – with a UST yield of 5.50% and 7.50% for the 10-year INDOGB, the IDR may weaken to IDR
15,838- 16,032/USD. In a more benign scenario, assuming 5.00% for the 10-year UST and 7.25% for the 10-year INDOGB, the IDR may
range between IDR 15,683 - IDR 15,877/USD, a range that is currently being tested. If the UST and INDOGB yields stabilize around
their current levels of 4.75% and 7.00%, respectively, the IDR would likely hover between IDR 15,543-IDR 15,737/USD. All in all, the
worst-case scenario appears implausible as BI’s forex intervention stance will also play a major role as seen in the recent decline in
forex reserves to USD 134.9bn in Sep-23, a year-to-date low and the largest monthly drop in 4 months.
Risk of Foreign outflows pressure remains. While BI seeking to rein in currency volatility, risk of outflow pressure remains elevated,
especially in Fixed Income (FI) market given the current weakness in IDR and escalating geopolitical risk. Fixed Income: Data from the
Ministry of Finance (MoF) on 5th Oct showed that foreign investment in domestic Government Securities (SBN) decreased by
IDR3.18tn to IDR819.83tn, and represent 14.9% of total SBN issuance. Banking, Insurance & Pention Fund remain adding up position.
Equity : Modest foreign outflows of IDR28bn in the 1st week of October 2023 with the JCI up slightly by 0.7% w-w. We note a rotation
back to big banks, with BBCA, BMRI and BBNI among the top inflows. Other domestic plays such as TLKM and ICBP also enjoyed
foreign flows, as well as some commodity plays such as AMMN, INCO and ITMG.
-5-
Market Events – Week Ahead Key Focus
Key Economic Events for The Week

Date Country Variable Prev Cons/BRIDS
Euro Area PMI Manufacture Flash - Oct-23 43.4 43.7
United Kingdom PMI Manufacture Flash - Oct-23 44.3 45.0
Tue, 24-Oct-23
Japan PMI Manufacture Flash - Oct-23 48.5 49.0
United States PMI Manufacture Flash - Oct-23 49.8 49.5
United States GDP Growth Q-Q Advance - 3Q23 2.1% 4.2%
Thu, 26-Oct-23
Euro Area ECB Interest Rate - Oct-23 4.5% 4.5%
United States PCE y-y - Sep-23 3.5% 3.4%
Fri, 27-Oct-23
United States Core PCE y-y - Sep-23 3.9% 3.7%
Source: Trading Economics, The Fed, Bank Indonesia, BRIDS
-6-
Last Week Key Events
US GDP, PCE, and Indonesia State Budget
US GDP 3Q23, PCE Sep-23, ECB Interest Rate Oct-23 China GDP and Industrial Production
• US GDP Advance Estimates – 3Q23 % q-q annualized
US GDP in 3Q23 rose 4.9% q-q, surpassing the consensus expectation 8
4.9
of 4.7%. Consumption rose 4%, the highest since 4Q21, showing the
6
ever-spending consumer despite many believe the spending was
funded by debt rather than income. 4
2
• US PCE – September 2023
0
US PCE is expected to stop accelerating in September 2023 with -2
estimation for PCE is at 3.4% y-y (vs. Aug’s 3.5%) and Core PCE at
-4
3.9% y-y (vs. Aug’s 3.7%). Monthly spending is estimated to slow to
0.3% m-m in September. -6
-8
• ECB Interest Rate– October 2023 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21 '23
and the deposit facility rate at 4.0%, the first time since a 15-month
cycle of hikes. The ECB reiterated that the current level, if held for a Indonesia State Budget
long enough period of time, would be sufficient to bring inflation
down to the 2% level as price pressures have subsided. Growth 2,035.6
outlook remain tilted to the downside, according to ECB President Revenue
1,974.9
Christine Lagarde.
Expenditure 1,967.9
Indonesia State Budget 9M23 1,913.7
• Money Supply – September 2023 67.7 0.32% of GDP

Surplus
61.2 0.31% of GDP
The State Budget Surplus in 9M23 has decreased to IDR 67.7tn, which
accounts for 0.32% of the GDP. This is lower than our initial Financing 163
expectation of a surplus at 0.48% of the GDP due to higher fiscal 431.8
spending in Sept.
2023M9 2022M9
Source: Bloomberg, Trading Economics
-7-
Week Ahead Key Focus
US Interest Rate, Indonesia Inflation
US Fed Fund Rate Nov-23, US NFP Oct-23, Euro Area Inflation Oct-23
US Interest Rate
• US Fed Fund Rate – November 2023 (Thursday)
%
Several FOMC members have recently indicated publicly that the Fed 6
could keep the Fed Fund Rate at 5.25 - 5.50. Jerome Powel's remarks
5
were also devoid of any new narrative, noting that inflation remains
high while refraining from committing to a specific set of policy 4
objectives. The market anticipates a rate pause in November.
3
• US NFP – October 2023 (Friday)
2
Due to recent job strike, the United States is expected to add fewer
than 200k jobs in October 2023 (Sep-23: 336k). Continuing Jobless 1
Claims increased for 5 weeks in a row to 1,790k in mid-October.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged 0
at 3.8%. '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21 '23
• Euro Area Inflation – October 2023 (Tuesday)

Headline inflation is expected to drop to 3.4% (vs. Sep’s 4.3%) on the Indonesia Money Supply
back of peak effect in October 2022 (10.6% y-y), yet monthly inflation % y-y
is expected at 0.3%. Core inflation is expected to decelerate at a 20
softer pace to 4.2% (vs Sep’s 4.5%). 18
16
Indonesia Inflation Oct-23 14
• Inflation – October 2023 (Wednesday) 12
10
Indonesia inflation is expected to accelerate to xxx% y-y on the back 8
of rising rice price. There are no other particular risks on October 6
4
inflation, historically. Core inflation, however, is expected to stay at
2
around xxx% 0
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Headline Core
Source: Bloomberg, Trading Economics, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas
-8-
Shift on Risk Focus: Global Economic Slowdown
1 Interest Rate Trend Approaches Terminal Stage
-9-
The Trilemma: A Shift In Risk Focus
Inflation Growth Volatility

High inflation Higher policy Moderation in
caused by post- rates and economic
pandemic pent- decreased in growth and the
up demand, along manufacturing potential of rate
with a jump in activity have cuts would
commodity prices resulted in an result in higher
last year, resulted economic volatility in
in significant slowdown. asset prices, but
policy rate this differs by
increases by asset class.
global central
banks.
- 10 -
Global Growth Is Moderating
ASEAN countries fare better
Global GDP Growth (%) Inflation Trend – IMF (%) G20 & ASEAN 2023 GDP Growth (%)
Source: IMF, World Bank, OECD
- 11 -
Inflation & Interest Rate Tracker
Hawkish stance slows in October 2023
Interest Rate trend
Total 147 countries

Oct 23
2023H1 July 2023 Aug 2023 Sep 23
6-Oct 13-Oct 20-Oct 27-Oct
Hike 29 19 14 16 0 1 2 6
Cut 11 8 8 11 6 6 6 10
Pause 99 24 39 48 11 11 14 22
• Indonesia followed Argentina footstep in taking hike stance in October 2023.

• Philippines raised interest rate in October in an off-cycle move
• Meanwhile, pause stance is continue to taking shape
Inflation trend
September Inflation
May June July Aug
6-Oct 13-Oct 20-Oct 27-Oct
Decelera
te 112 121 100 66 27 60 79 85
Accelerat
e 25 20 34 56 16 36 48 49
• Higher energy prices provide new upward risks for inflation acceleration. But core
inflation in most countries still coming down
• Deceleration of inflation still continue with 85 countries shows decelerating inflation in
Sep-23.
Source: Trading Economics, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas
- 12 -
Pause Stance Dominates
Japan
USA UK
The Bank of Japan
The Fed kept its policy The Bank of England continues to
rate unchanged at the voted by a narrow maintain its ultra-
Sept FOMC meeting, majority to hold its loose monetary
although the key interest rate at policy, despite a
unprecedented higher 5.25%, ending the weaker Yen and
dot plot indicates 14 consecutive rate persistently elevated
much smaller rate cuts increases since the inflation. The BoJ
in 2024. end of 2021 to kept its short-term
mitigate inflation interest rates at -
risks. 0.1% and still
maintains the
current Yield Curve
Control.
- 13 -
10 most traded exchange rate
A broad rate pause has started
Rate Movement (bps) Rate Movement (percentage of 10 countries)
200 200 4 4
5 5
6
8 8 8
140 1 9
125 10 10 10
100
6
75 5 5 5
4
50 1
2 2
25 1 1
15
0 0 0
Hike Cut Stay
10 Exchange Rate: USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD, CHF, CNY, HKD, NZD
- 14 -
Global PMI Tracker
US expand slightly, while Euro continue to weaken in October 2023
September Global Manufacturing PMI October (Flash) Global Manufacturing PMI
Improving 5 Expansionary Improving 5 Expansionar

y
Africa Austria
Taiwan United States
United Kingdom
South Korea Philippines America United Kingdom
ASEAN United States
1-month ∆
1-month ∆
Singapore Germany America

0 Asia ex-ASEAN 0
40 Malaysia Hong Kong China 60 40 60 Asia ex-ASEAN
Europe Japan
Thailand India Europe
France
Euro Area Japan Vietnam Indonesia OCEANIA
Euro Area
Sri Lanka World
Myanmar Indonesia
-5 -5
Contractionary PMI Easing Contractionary PMI Easing
• In September, Manufacturing in 13 countries were still at

Jun-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 expanding, with 7 countries fell into the expansionary category,
PMI Status while 6 countries shows it expansion rate eased, including
# of Countries # of Countries # of Countries
Indonesia.
Expansionary 6 13% 7 15% 1 14%
>50 • Number of countries that have PMI below 50 were increased to
Easing 9 19% 6 13% 0 35 in September, higher than 1H23 trend of below 30.
Improving 9 19% 15 31% 4 57% • US Manufacturing Industry entered expansion zone in Oct-23,
<50 the first time since Apr-23. Many Europe countries, including
Contractionary 23 49% 20 42% 2 29% UK, still going through contractionary zone in October,
according to the flash estimates
Source : BRIDS, Bloomberg
- 15 -
Indonesia Economy to grow 5% in 2023 & 2024
Global institution seemed to agree on 5% growth of Indonesia economy
Indonesia GDP Forecast Indonesia Inflation Forecast Global GDP Forecast
5.2
3.74 3 3
5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 2.9
3.6 3.6
4.9 4.9 2.7
2.4
2.1
2.76
2.5
2023 2024 2023 2024 2023 2024
WB OECD IMF ADB WB OECD IMF ADB WB OECD IMF
Latest data
WB October (Indonesia); June (Global)
OECD September
IMF October
ADB September
Source: Bank Indoensia
- 16 -
While the global situation is struggling, Indonesia is prevailing
Global institution seemed to agree on 5% growth of Indonesia economy
Global Economy
The most recent IMF report reveals that the global economy is struggling. The main issue is still uneven recovery, which is brought
on by the pandemic's varied aftereffects, tightening financial conditions, and disruptions in food and energy supplies. The global
economy is limping along despite the struggle. Without the necessary significant labor market distortion, however, headline
inflation is continuing to slow down. Projections are more and more in line with the "soft landing" hypothesis. In the IMF words,
global economy has slowed, but not stalled with growth in 2023 is expected at 3% and slows to 2.9% in 2024
GLOBAL
Key Risks to the Growth

The recovery is more susceptible to several risks as a result of the uneven growth. China's real estate collapse will harm banks'
and households' balance sheets. It is becoming more urgent to shift away from credit-driven growth. The second risk was brought
on by rising commodity price volatility. Recent increases in oil prices have demonstrated that the upside risks of inflation have
not diminished and may result in another wave of inflation. War and the voluntary production cut by OPEC+ drive up oil prices
even more. The medium-term inflation expectation also needs to be anchored as energy price is rising.
Indonesia to prevail
In stark contrast to the global slowdown mentioned above, the IMF maintains its projection of 5% for Indonesia's economy in
2023 and 2024, expressing confidence in Indonesia's ability to weather the domestic economic storm. In a separate report, the
World Bank also pointed out that Indonesia's output has increased by 12% since the pre-pandemic period thanks to reforms in
INDONESIA
the service sector, which boosted productivity gains in both the service and manufacturing sectors. Despite a potential slowdown
in China's investment and consumption, according to the World Bank, Indonesia will still grow by 4.9%.
Monetary and Fiscal Advantage

High inflation no longer persists, continuing to diverge from global development, allowing Bank Indonesia to refocus on exchange
rate stabilization. Budget deficit is anticipated to be less than previous estimates, moving away from the 3% threshold, letting
the fiscal space to continues to expand. Without sacrificing economic growth, a hasty expansionary policy could be set to the
sideline, allowing Indonesia to fine-tune its policy more slowly than other economies in the current high volatility period.
Source: IMF, World Bank
- 17 -
Navigating the Volatility
Rates and Yield – study on high volatility episodes
Period of Volatility in INDOGB & UST yield
% bps
8 100.0
80.0
7
60.0
6
40.0
5
20.0
4 0.0
-20.0
3
-40.0
2
-60.0
1
-80.0
0 -100.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
INDOGB chg UST chg BI Rate BI7DRR FFR 20yrs avg of positive INDOGB yield m-m chg
Source: Bank Indonesia, Bloomberg, BRI Danareksa

Sekuritas
- 18 -
How Low Can We Go?
Study on Yield and IDR
 During the three high volatility

episodes (May 2000 - Jan 2001,  In Indonesia, during the four
Jun 2006 - Sep 2007, and Dec identified high volatility
2018 - Jul 2019), the 10-year episodes (Dec 2005 - May
UST Yield averaged 50bps 2006, Oct 2008 - Dec 2008
below the FFR. Assuming the [GFC], Nov 2013 - Dec 2015,
current FFR level of 5.50% and Jan 2019 - Jun 2019), the
remains unchanged, the UST 10-year INDOGB averaged
Yield could potentially reach 171bps above the BI Rate.
5.0%, while another 25bps UST INDOGB Assuming BI maintains its
current policy stance and
hike in November would put
the UST Yield at risk of rising
How Low with no intervention, the
further to 5.25%. Can We worst-case scenario for the
10-year INDOGB yield could
Go? overshoot to 7.5%.
 Under the worst-case scenario – with a
UST yield of 5.50% and 7.50% for the
10-year INDOGB, the IDR may weaken  All in all, the worst-case
to IDR 15,838- 16,032. In a more IDR Conclusion scenario appears
benign scenario, assuming 5.00% for implausible as BI’s forex
the 10-year UST and 7.25% for the 10- intervention stance will
year INDOGB, the IDR may range also play a major role as
between IDR 15,683 - IDR 15,877/USD, seen in the recent decline
a range that is currently being tested. in forex reserves to USD
If the UST and INDOGB yields stabilize 134.9bn in Sep-23, a
around their current levels of 4.75% year-to-date low and the
and 7.00%, respectively, the IDR would largest monthly drop in 4
likely hover between IDR 15,543-IDR months
15,737/USD.
- 19 -
INDOGB Yield – Impacting Factors on Volatility
External Factors are the main culprit for rising yield
INDOGB vs Indonesia Interest Rate INDOGB vs USDIDR
% %
18 18 18,000
14 16,000
14
14,000
10 10
12,000
6 6
10,000
2 2 8,000
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
INDOGB (lhs) USDIDR
INDOGB (lhs) BI Rate BI7DRR
INDOGB vs Current Account INDOGB Changes vs Current account
bps USD bn
% USD bn 400 6
16 6
14 4 300 3
12 2 200 0
0
10
-2 100 -3
8
-4
6 0 -6
-6
4 -8 -100 -9
2 -10
-200 -12
0 -12
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
INDOGB q-q (lhs) Current Account
Current Account INDOGB (lhs)
Source: Ministry of Finance,
- 20 -
Weaker IDR Risk to Foreign Outflow
When the IDR continues to weaken, outflow intensifies
IDR Breakeven Based on YTM Foreign Ownership
1200.00 45.0%
40.0%
1000.00
35.0%
800.00 30.0%
25.0%
600.00
20.0%
400.00 15.0%
10.0%
200.00
5.0%
0.00 0.0%
Dec-19 Jun-20 Dec-20 Jun-21 Dec-21 Jun-22 Dec-22 Jun-23
Foreign Outstanding (IDR tn) Foreign (%) (RHS)
Source: Finance Ministry, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas
• We believe that the currency outlook is always seen as the primary factor in attracting foreign inflows. In April to June, we calculated that the
breakeven level would be around 15,700-15,900. As a result, when the IDR continued to head north closer to those levels, we noted intensified
foreign outflows.
- 21 -
Geopolitical Risk Escalation: Israel – Gaza Conflict
The repeat of 1973 oil crisis?
The oil embargo that followed the 1973 Yom Kippur War resulted in a pronounced energy crisis marked by substantial surge in oil
prices.. Would the current crisis have a similar outcome? While there aren't many similarities, it's important to note that the risk
factor could rapidly increase. The market is currently pricing in the expectation of a more contained crisis.
In contrast to the Differing from the A less robust OPEC members are If Iran's
events of 1973, situation in 1973, global economy currently not participation in
the Arab nations the Arab world results in a more seeking a significant the
did not launch a chose to observe fragile demand increase in oil unprecedented
prices, whereas in
simultaneous the events from a scenario for oil 1973, just before
attack were
attack on Israel. distance rather consumption. the oil embargo, proven, it would
than actively they raised prices by significantly raise
exerting influence. 70%. the risk profile.
Obeserving, not Weaker Demand No Intention To Raise Risk of Iran

Not All Situation Price Significantly Involvement
Influencing
- 22 -
Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is the biggest risk
A remote put more serious risk to oil market
Daily Transit Volumes Through World Maritime Strait of Hormuz: World’s Largest Oil Chokepoints
Oil Price Doubled During Golf War on Hormuz Disruption US is The Only Major Oil Producers With Higher Output
Source: Investing, Bloomberg, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas estimates
- 23 -
Rising Reliance toward Domestic Economy Strength
2 Fiscal Spending and Election Fund to Support Growth
- 24 -
GDP Growth exceed expectation in Q2 with 5.17% y-y growth
Household Consumption returned to above 5% y-y
GDP Growth 2023
2022 2023F
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY
GDP 5.02 5.46 5.73 5.01 5.31 5.03 5.17 4.98 5.05 5.06
Consumption
Household 4.34 5.51 5.39 4.48 4.93 4.54 5.23 5.55 5.60 5.24
Non-Profit 5.90 5.02 5.97 5.70 5.64 6.17 8.62 8.50 12.83 9.08
Government -6.62 -4.63 -2.55 -4.77 -4.51 3.99 10.62 9.90 4.19 7.12
Gross Fixed Capital
4.08 3.09 4.98 3.33 3.87 2.11 4.63 4.50 3.05 3.56
Formation
Export of Goods & Service 14.22 16.40 19.41 14.93 16.28 11.68 -2.75 -1.99 4.00 2.48
Import of Goods & Service 16.04 12.72 25.37 6.25 14.75 2.77 -3.08 -3.21 3.00 -0.17
• The pace of consumption growth has been faster than our initial expectation, as we note robust growth trend despite no significant increase in
government spending.
• In 1H23, only 40% of the State Budget was spent, leaving a remaining 60% or IDR 1,355 trillion to be utilized in the 2H - assuming full spending.
Moreover, consumption related to the upcoming elections has also shown an increase, with non-profit consumption rising by 8.62% y-y in the 2Q,
despite the fact that the campaign period won't begin until the fourth quarter.
• Investment would also continue to increase, with the government still targeting the completion of 25 PSNs (National Strategic Project) in 2H after
completing 5 PSNs until 7th of July.
• We revised up our Q3 & FY GDP growth forecast, based on the above forecast result of Q2 GDP, to 4.98% y-y growth in Q3 (vs. 4.93% in previous
forecast) and to 5.06% y-y growth in FY2023 (vs. 5.00%).
Source: BPS, BRIDS Estimates
- 25 -
25
Household Consumption return to 5%
Transportation and Restaurants & Hotels led the way as mobility increased
2022 2023
• Household Consumption reached 5.23% due to the
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 combination of national holiday and religious holiday
Household Consumption 4.34 5.51 5.39 4.48 4.54 5.23 allowance (THR)
a. Food & Beverage, ex-restaurant 3.58 4.09 2.65 3.38 3.47 3.84
o Transportation and Communication rose
b. Clothing, Footwear, and Maintenance Services 6.47 4.34 4.41 2.04 3.98 7.02
+7.53% y-y due to increasing mobility as
c. Household Housing and Equipment 3.22 3.31 2.3 2.37 2.78 3.8 reflected by higher consumption growth of
d. Health and Education 2.15 4.27 1.04 2.28 2.5 5.51 Restaurant & Hotel at 6.76% y-y (vs Q1:
e. Transportation and Communication 7.04 9.68 12.87 8.05 7.84 7.53 5.86%).
f. Restaurants and Hotels 4.21 6.61 9.12 6.41 5.86 6.76
o Health and Education Consumption grew
g. Others 2.65 3.56 1.66 2.98 2.69 3.71 by 5.51%, a post-pandemic record, and in
Non-Profit Institution Consumption 5.9 5.02 5.97 5.7 6.17 8.62 line with the growth of Health Sectors. Food
Government Consumption -6.62 -4.63 -2.55 -4.77 3.45 10.62 & Beverages ex-restaurant (F&B) kept
a. Collective Consumption 2.49 -12.28 8.13 0.62 2.97 21.39 improving with 3.84% y-y growth but still
b. Individual Consumption -18.49 6.93 -14.54 -12.62 4.23 -2.74 below the pre-pandemic trend.
Gross Domestic Fixed Capital 4.08 3.09 4.98 3.33 2.11 4.63 • Gov't consumption rose 10.62% y-y due to low base
a. Building 2.58 0.92 0.07 0.11 0.08 3.32 effect (Q2-22: -4.63% y-y) with Collective
b. Machinery and Equipment 19.17 16.3 36.46 18.36 4.62 7.67 Consumption rose as much as 21.39% y-y.
c. Vehicle 0.27 6.96 17.14 17.08 24.09 15.5 • Non-profit consumption was recorded at 8.62% y-y,
d. Other Equipment 6.04 -4.31 0.11 -2.66 -5.26 -5.29 reaching the pre-election growth trend, which we
e. Cultivated Biological Resources (CBR) 3.16 3.97 1.95 0.27 3.34 5.62 believe already indicating the rising political-related
f. Intellectual Property Products -5.73 6.98 6.23 12.67 5.06 9.28 spending.
Export of Goods and Services 14.22 16.4 19.41 14.93 12.17 -2.75 • Investment (Gross Fixed Capital Formation)
a. Goods 14.01 14.31 16.57 12.73 8.48 -5.64 reached 4.63% y-y. Building investment, the
a.1. Non-oil and gas goods 17.11 16.7 17.53 13.99 7.58 -6.11 second-highest contributor to GDP after F&B
a.2. Oil and gas goods -13.08 -6.41 6.18 -0.7 19.06 -0.5 consumption, ticked up to 3.32% y-y after below 1%
b. Services 18.52 64 84.14 56.4 86.52 43.14 growth in the previous 4 quarters.
Import of Goods and Services 16.04 12.72 25.37 6.25 3.8 -3.08 • Export and Import posed negative growth for the
a. Goods 15.75 10.15 21.99 3.47 0.37 -5.63 first time since 2021. Export contracted by 2.75% y-y
a.1. Non-oil and gas goods 17.08 11.02 17.41 1.99 -0.65 -6.66 as Goods export also contracted. Service exports,
a.2. Oil and gas goods 8.08 5.35 54.29 12.29 6.72 0.36 however, still grew due to rising foreign tourists.
b. Services 18.65 36.69 56.25 31.53 33.95 16.07 Import contracted by 3.08% y-y, resulted in negative
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTS 5.02 5.46 5.73 5.01 5.04 5.17 net export growth at -1.05% y-y.
- 26 -
26
Household Consumption return to 5%
Transportation and Restaurants & Hotels led the way as mobility increased
2021 2022 2023

SECTOR
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 3.48 0.56 1.44 2.33 1.16 1.68 1.95 4.51 0.43 2.02
Mining -2.02 5.22 7.78 5.15 3.82 4.01 3.22 6.46 4.92 5.01
Manufacturing -1.38 6.58 3.68 4.92 5.07 4.01 4.83 5.64 4.43 4.88
Electricity & Gas 1.68 9.09 3.85 7.81 7.04 9.33 8.05 2.31 2.67 3.15
Water Supply 5.46 5.78 4.56 4.14 1.35 4.46 4.26 2.84 5.69 4.78
Consruction -0.79 4.42 3.84 3.91 4.83 1.02 0.63 1.61 0.32 5.23
Trade -1.28 9.5 5.12 5.54 5.73 4.43 5.37 6.55 4.92 5.25
Transport & Storage -13.09 25.1 -0.72 7.93 15.79 21.27 25.8 16.99 15.93 15.28
Accommodation and Food Service Activities -7.28 21.54 -0.14 4.98 6.58 9.8 17.83 13.81 11.55 9.89
Information and Communication 8.72 6.9 5.54 6.24 7.15 8.06 6.95 8.75 7.13 8.02
Financial and Insurance Activities -2.97 8.33 4.29 -2.59 1.64 1.5 0.87 3.76 4.48 2.88
Real Estate Activities 0.94 2.82 3.42 3.94 3.78 2.16 0.63 0.39 0.37 0.96
Business Activities -6.1 9.94 -0.59 0.89 5.96 7.92 10.79 10.42 6.37 9.59
Public Administration and Defence -2.24 9.94 -9.95 0.99 -1.29 -1.52 12.48 1.78 2.09 8.15
Education -1.54 5.88 -4.43 0.72 -1.41 -1.06 4.46 0.42 1.02 5.43
Health 3.38 11.68 14.04 12.16 4.52 6.5 -1.71 2.47 4.77 8.27
Others -5.15 11.97 -0.3 3.35 8.25 9.26 9.13 11.14 8.9 11.89
• The growth trend continues to be led by the Transport & Storage sector at 15.28% y-y and Wholesale Trade at 5.25% y-y. All kinds of transport show
positive growth due to increasing people’s mobility in Q2. Air transport grew 32.88% y-y, Sea transport grew by 18.26%, and Railway grew by 19.40%.
• The encouraging sign came from the Construction sector which grew by 5.25% y-y, the highest number since the pandemic. The Construction sector has
10% contribution to overall GDP, the recovery of this sector will play an important role in going forward as it also could reflect the recovery of Investment.
• The Health Service sector also showed robust improvement in Q2 with 8.27% y-y growth, much higher than 3.31% average growth between 2022Q1 –
2023Q1. The increasing reimbursement package from BPJS in Q2 resulted in increasing BPJS patients share and boosting overall patients’ volume, hence
the high growth in Health sector despite high-base effect (Q2: 6.5% y-y).
- 27 -
27
Statistical Discrepancies remained elevated
Gap between sectoral output and expenditure still large
10
7.46
8
6 6.11
-2
-4
-6
- 28 -
28
Proposed Budget 2024: The Final Chapter
Geared towards accelerating an economic transformation that is both inclusive and sustainable
Tax Centric Priority Spending Energy Subsidy Fiscal Deficit Overall Impact
29
Tax-centric revenues driver Among the five key areas of Energy subsidy + Flattish 2024 fiscal deficit Government expect IDR80.8tn
with total revenue growth of expenditure, social spending compensation allocation target of 2.29% (vs 2023’ dividend revenue next year,
5.4% mainly come from 8.9% has witnessed a significant remains substantial at 2.3%) with overall deficit relatively similar to 2023, and
tax revenues growth, surge of 12.4% growth, IDR329tn, slightly lower than reach IDR522.8tn, up 7.4% y- assuming similar contribution
especially with weaker non- reaching IDR493.5tn in 2024. this year's IDR357tn outlook y, with debt financing target level from 3 large SOE banks,
tax revenue target, down 8% This figure is relatively close figure, with an ICP surge to IDR648.1tn, up 59% payout ratio can be lower by
y-y. As GDP is expected to to the peak pandemic assumption of USD80 per y-y, implying notable rise in max 10percentage points
grow at 5.2% (vs 2023’s 5.1%) allocation seen in 2020, which barrel (compared to 2023's government bond supply in from this year’s payout ratio
and inflation assumption of indicates the government's USD78), and a higher oil lifting 2024. Net government bond range of 40-85%. KUR and
2.8%, overall nominal growth intention to bolster capacity of 625k barrels/day. financing (calculated by FLPP budget remains similar
of 8.0% would still slightly consumption growth. The With the elevated energy subtracting matured bonds next year. On excise tax
below tax growth target. salaries of both civil servants subsidies component, every from gross bond issuance) is target, the impact would be
and military personnel will USD1 increase in the ICP projected to be at IDR666tn in relatively neutral to Cigarette
Tax revenue accounts for
experience an increase of 8%. assumption will result in an 2024 (vs 2023’s IDR363tn). sector as the government
83% of total revenue in 2024
Infrastructure spending has IDR6.5tn increase in the fiscal According to our estimations foresee a normalized excise
(vs pre pandemic 79%), with
also saw a notable boost, deficit. Despite the higher oil for bonds maturing in 2024, tax revenue growth of 8.3%,
tax-based expansion and
reaching an all-time high of price assumption, inflation is the gross issuance is similar to pre-pandemic level.
collection efficiency as the
IDR493tn (+5.8%). This expected to moderate to anticipated to reach Overall, the risk would remain
primary strategy to achieve
allocation incorporates a 2.8% in 2024, compared to IDR1,249tn. Govt target bond on tax centric revenue-based
higher tax revenue next year.
budget of IDR41tn for the 2023's 2.8%. yield of 6.7% in 2024, slightly impact toward purchasing
development of the new lower than 2023’s assumption power, system liquidity and
capital city. of 6.8%. overall aggregate demand, a
situation which lingers since
2022.
- 29 -
2024 Proposed Budget
Key assumptions
2024 State Budget Posture
State Revenues: State Expeditures: Economic

Rp2,781.3 T Rp3,304.1 T Transformation
 Tax Revenue: Rp2,307.9 T  Central Government: Rp2,446.5 T Short-term Strategy

 Non-Tax Revenues: Rp473 T  Transfers to Regions: Rp857.6 T
 Grants: Rp0.4 T  Accelerating the eradication of
extreme poverty
Primary Balance: Rp-25.5 T
 Reducing the prevalence of
Budget Deficit: 2.29% of GDP / Rp522.8 T
stunting
Macroeconomic Assumptions  Controlling inflation
2023  Increasing investment.
Variables APBN 2023 RAPBN 2024
Outlook
Economic Growth (%, yoy) 5.3 5.0 - 5.3 5.2 Medium-term Strategy
Inflation (%, yoy) 3.6 3.6 2.8
Exchange Rate (Rp/USD) 14,800 15,200 15,000  Strengthening the quality of
10Y T-Bonds Rate (%) 7.9 6.9 6,7 human resources
Indonesian Crude Price/ICP (USD/Barrel) 90 82 80  Infrastructure development
Oil Lifting (Thousand bpd) 660 660 625  Consolidating the implementation
Gas Lifting (Million bpd) 1,100 1,100 1,030 of bureaucratic reform and
simplification of regulations
Development Target  Increasing the added value of
Poverty Rate (%) 7.5 - 8.5 6.5 – 7.5 natural resources
Gini Ratio 0.375 - 0.378 0.374 – 0.377
Unemployment Rate (%) 5.3 - 6.0 5.0 – 5.7%
Other things:
Human Development Index 73.31 - 73.49 73.99 – 74.02  The salaries of ASN, TNI and Polri will
Farmer’s Exchange Rate (NTP) 105 - 107 105 – 108 increase by 8%. In addition, pensioners'
Fisherman’s Exchange Rate (NTN) 107 - 108 107 - 110 salaries will also increase by 12%.
RAPBN 2024 as of 16 August 2023
Source: DPR RI, Ministry of Finance,
- 30 -
Tax Centric Revenue Driver
Maintaining Fiscal Prudence
State Revenue (Rp tn) State Expenditure (Rp tn)

State Revenue Taxes Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Grants State Expenditure Central Government Transfer to Regions
2,781 3304.1
2,308
2446.5
857.6
473
0.4
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Outlook Outlook
Budget Deficit (Rp tn) Budget Deficit (% to GDP)
(1.82)
(2.20) (2.38) (2.28) (2.29)
(269.4)
(348.7)
(464.3) (486.4) (522.8) (4.57)
(775.1) (6.14)
(967.7)
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Outlook Outlook
- 31 -
Spending Priorities
Social Protection and Infra are on the focus list for the Final Year
Education Healtcare
Infrastructure Social Protection
- 32 -
Elevated Energy Subsidy Budget
Ensuring support on consumption
Energy Subsidy Regional Transfer and Village Funds
Household Consumption vs. Energy Subsidy ’10-‘19 Household Consumption vs. Energy Subsidy ’20-‘23
550.00 7.00%
350.00 5.49% 5.43% 500.00
5.50% 450.00
300.00
341.81
400.00 4.93% 5.00%

309.98
306.48
250.00 5.15% 5.30% 350.00
502.40
5.05% 300.00 2.02% 3.00%
255.61
5.01% 5.04% 250.00

200.00 5.10%
336.70
4.96% 4.94% 200.00
199.94
188.30
5.05%
150.00 150.00 1.00%
4.90% 100.00
153.52
119.09
106.79
144.38
100.00
97.64
50.00 -1.00%
50.00 4.70% -
(50.00) 2020 2021 2022 2023
- 4.50% (100.00) -2.63% -3.00%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Subsidy + Compensation (LHS)
Subsidy + Compensation (LHS) Household Consumption Growth (RHS) Household Consumption Growth (RHS)
- 33 -
Higher Bond Supply in 2024
Lower spending actualization will lead to potential reduction in Deficit target
Outlook
2023 dari
Government Budget 2019 2020 2021 2022 Asumsi 2024
RAPBN
2024
Government revenues 1960.6 1647.8 2011.3 2635.8 2637.2 2781.3

Government expendi tures 2309.3 2595.5 2786.4 3096.3 3123.7 3304.1
Pri mary bal ance -73.1 -633.6 -431.6 -74.1 -49.0 -25.5
Budget Defici t -348.7 -947.7 -775.1 -460.4 -486.4 -522.8

% of GDP -2.2 -6.1 -4.6 -2.4 -2.3 -2.3
1193.2 871.6 591.0
Source of Financing 402.1 1193.3 871.7 591.0 486.4 522.8
Debt Fi nancing 437.5 1229.6 870.5 696.0 406.4 648.1
Govt bonds - net 446.3 1177.2 877.5 658.8 362.9 666.4
Loan program - net -8.7 52.5 -7.0 37.2 43.4 -18.4
- Local l oan 3.0 2.4 0.9
- Foreign loan -11.8 50.1 -7.9
Inves tment Fi nanci ng -49.4 -104.7 -142.5 -106.7 -153.4 -176.2
Loan Fi nanci ng -1.3 1.0 1.9 2.1 4.0 -0.3
Liabi l ity Fi nancing 0.0 -3.6 -2.7 -1.1 -0.3 -0.8
Others 15.2 70.9 144.4 0.7 229.7 52.0
Excess / s hortage of fi nanci ng 53.4 245.6 96.7 130.6
Gross Bond Supply 901.6 1528.4 1301.7 1053.6 835.1 1249.0

Gross Bond Matured 472.2 582.6
Gross Bond Net 362.9 666.4
Domestic 753.0 1369.2 1143.6 941.2 745.5 1115.0

Auction 581.0 760.7 796.6 585.4 591.9 885.2
Retail 49.9 76.8 97.2 107.4 133.2 199.2
Pri vate Pl acement 23.9 134.2 34.8 24.3 20.4 30.5
BI 397.6 215.0 224.0
Foreign 148.6 159.2 158.0 112.5 89.6 134.0
Mature
Total 803.4 1130.8 1086.7 829.6 835.1 1249.0

Proporsi
Auction 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
Retail 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2
PP 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Foreign 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Realisation assumption Remaini ng 2023

Unreal ized remaini ng auction 202.75
Remaini ng auction 46.0 48.0 42.0 47.0 48.0 48.0 20
per l elang 12.6 15.8 19.0 12.5 12.3 18.4 10.14
Target per 2x auction 25.3 31.7 37.9 24.9 24.7 36.9 20.28
- 34 -
34
Phasing Out of Pertalite to Pertamax Green 92
Fiscal capacity still have ample room to absorb
Pass On Ethanol + Blending Cost At Par to the Current Pertamax Price Increase Subsidy Budget
Ethanol price (USD/litre) 1.33

Pertalite (Rp/litre) 10,000
Blending Ethanol portion (%) 7 Volume usage (KL) 32,000,000
Pertamax (Rp/litre) -
Total cost + blending Additional Ethanol cost +
Pertamax Green 92 13,300
(IDR/litre) 1,800 blending (IDR/litre) 1,800
Price increase (%) 33
Additional budget (IDRb) 57,600
Pertamax Green 92 price Inflation impact 0%
(IDR/litre) 11,800
Inflation impact 1.06%
Price increase (%) 18
Inflation impact 0.58%
The most plausible option given no

The least impact to inflation The Worst-Case scenario
fiscal constraint
- 35 -
Bank Indonesia : Currency Conundrum
Safeguarding currency stability, positive progress on SRBI and TD DHE to support forex buffer
After keeping the policy BI also projected that While the Rupiah remains Concerning SRBI, BI noted that Further improvements on
rate steady at 5.75% for inflation would remain volatile, it still stands out as the secondary market is still in banking intermediary
eight consecutive months, stable for the rest of 2023 one of the best-performing its nascent stage and requires growth. Loans growth
BI announced its intention and 2024. The central bank currencies. BI anticipates time to mature. Nevertheless, accelerated further to
identified other risks, that capital inflows will the SRBI auctions held on 9.06% in Aug from July's
of maintaining the current
including the increasing commence in November, Wednesday and Friday were 8.54%.
rate to uphold IDR prices of rice and oil and coinciding with the
stability. oversubscribed by 3.12x and
emphasized that expected peak of the With macro-prudential
4.12x, respectively. BI has
adjustments in oil prices Federal Reserve's federal incentives introduced in
indicated flexibility in
With an ongoing would be temporary and funds rate (FFR). October and interest
increasing the awarded
commitment to safeguard apply solely to non- subsidies for working capital
Despite successfully nominal amount, aligning with
currency volatility, we subsidized fuel, which loans to SMSE, BI maintains
managing inflation, BI has SRBI's pro-market stance.
don’t foresee any change would have a relatively announced its intention to its loans growth target of 9-
minor impact on overall retain the prevailing In the secondary market, SRBI 11%.
in policy rates until year-
inflation. interest policy rate, transactions have been active
end. at IDR2.13tn, representing 5%
intervention in forex
As government rice of the combined awarded
markets (both spot and
reserves continued to nominal amount from both
DNDF), as well as to further
increase to the current 2 enhance the efficiency of auctions, with 82% of
million tons level, such a SRBI and TD DHE participants being foreign
buffer is deemed adequate instruments to stabilize the entities. Such a trajectory is
until 1Q24, paving the way Rupiah. expected to further accelerate
for more stable rice prices. going forward.
- 36 -
Bank Indonesia : Unprecedented Rate Hike In Oct
Pre-emptive Measure to Safeguard IDR
Bank Indonesia (BI) A pivot away from a pause With the current decrease Additionally, BI introduced Overall, BI has employed all
surprised the market by stance is perceived to send in system liquidity, there Sukuk Valas Bank Indonesia three monetary policy tools
increasing its BI7DRR to strong signals to the seems to be limited space (SVBI) and Sekuritas Valas to support stability: (1)
6.0%, a 25 basis point rise. market regarding BI's for BI to sustain its Bank Indonesia (SUVBI), two Intervention, (2) Financial
intention to reinforce IDR stringent monetary new financial instruments. Deepening, and (3) Interest
This decision was
stability while preventing measures without These instruments function Rates as shown in their
unexpected, going against the development of potentially exacerbating
both our and consensus similarly to SRBI, with auctions latest action.
pernicious imported the liquidity shortage. in the primary market offering
predictions of a stable inflation. They are also focusing on
BI has adopted macro- tenors ranging from one to
policy rate. the macro-prudential policy
We also noted the prudential measures to twelve months and a
to promote growth
reinstatement of "pre- boost economic growth secondary market that allows
Such move was taken as a alongside the
emptive" and "forward- with the RRR incentive foreign participants to take
proactive step to response policy has injected contractionary stance of
looking" narratives. It also part. SVBI and SUVBI will be
approximately IDR28tn monetary policy.
to the ongoing signalled the return of the backed by global and sukuk
vulnerability of the IDR. "Triple Intervention" liquidity into the system, global bonds owned by BI. The
from IDR50tn target. new instruments aim to
policy, under which BI will
directly intervene in the While the injection of attract foreign portfolio
spot market, DNDF, and liquidity may seem inflows, given the recent
SBN, with the primary contradictory with BI’s persistent foreign outflow
objective of limiting the goal of safeguarding IDR, trend since Sept. Auctions for
pass-through effect of this action is deemed the new instruments will
higher imported inflation. crucial to create room for begin on 21st Nov 23.
growth improvement.
- 37 -
Monetary Operation & Excess Liquidity
No Much Room Left for Monetary Contraction Policy to Support IDR
Monetary Operation Outstanding (IDR tn)

IDR tn
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
Apr II
Mei III
Mei III
Nov III
Nov III
Jan I
Jan I
Jan I
Mei I
Jun II
Jun II
Apr I
Apr IV
Okt I
Apr I
Apr IV
Okt I
Apr I
Apr IV
Jan IV
Des II
Jan IV
Des II
Jan IV
Des III
Mei IV
Mei IV
Feb III
Feb III
Feb III
Jun III
Agst IV
Nov IV
Jan II
Jun III
Agst IV
Sep III
Jul I
Jul IV
Agst III
Sept II
Okt IV
Jul I
Jul IV
Agst III
Sept II
Okt IV
Jul II
Sept III
Okt II
Feb IV
Jul II
Okt II
Nov I
Feb I
Mar II
Mar II
Mar II
Agst I
Mar III
Agst I
2020 2021 2022 2023
SRBI SBI SDBI Repo Reverse Repo SBN Term Deposit Deposit Facility
Banking System Excess Liquidity
% JIBOR-1 mth (LHS) BI rate (LHS) Avg Excess Liquidity-4W (RHS) IDR tn
9 640
8 530
7 420
6 310
5 200
4 90
3 -20
Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Oct-20 Oct-21 Oct-22 Oct-23
Excess Liquidity = (Kas + Giro di BI + Deposit Facility) – GWM; Source: Bank Indonesia, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas
- 38 -
Sekuritas Rupiah Bank Indonesia
Higher Yield Offered, although awarded amount continues to declining
SRBI Awarded Amount SRBI Yield vs. 1y INDOGB yield

%
24,456 6.7
6.7
6.6
14,950 14,135
15,026 13,275
IDR bn
6.5
10,590 11,184
9,075 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4
7,530 8,230 6,085 7,805 6.4
4,384 6,665
2,650 9,810 4,830 1,050 4,480 6.4
1,250 5,300 1,250 3,250 6.4 6.4
900 4,880 2,710 6.3 6.3
7,000 900 480 840
350 6.3
6,780 1,280 6,170 4,860 800 1,300 5,550 6.3
2,550 2,475 3,655 3,475 3,290 6.3 6.3 6.3
2,185 6.2 6.3 6.3
15-Sep 20-Sep 22-Sep 27-Sep 29-Sep 04-Oct 06-Oct 11-Oct 13-Oct 18-Oct 20-Oct 15-Sep 20-Sep 22-Sep 27-Sep 29-Sep 04-Oct 06-Oct 11-Oct 13-Oct 18-Oct 20-Oct
6 mo 9 mo 12 mo Total Total 1y INDOGB
SRBI Awarded Amount SRBI Yield across tenor

IDR bn 6.8
35,000 1.4x
30,000 6.7
25,000 1.3x
6.6
20,000
1.2x
15,000 6.5
10,000 1.1x 6.4
5,000
0 1.0x 6.3
15-Sep
17-Sep
19-Sep
21-Sep
23-Sep
25-Sep
27-Sep
29-Sep
11-Oct
13-Oct
15-Oct
17-Oct
19-Oct
1-Oct
3-Oct
5-Oct
7-Oct
9-Oct
6.2
15-Sep 20-Sep 22-Sep 27-Sep 29-Sep 04-Oct 06-Oct 11-Oct 13-Oct 18-Oct 20-Oct
Bidding Amount Awarded Amount Bid-to-Cover Ratio (RHS) 6 mo 9 mo 12 mo
Source: Bank Indonesia, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas
- 39 -
Confidence slumped in September
Lowest confidence in 2023
Indonesia Consumer Confidence Indonesia Current Economic Condition

125
140 121.0
131.3 119.7
120 117.6
120 121.7
112.2
115 113.0 113.8
100 111.6
109.6 109.3
110 108.5
80
105
60
100
40 Current Incomes Job Availability Purchase of Durable Goods
Sep-20 Mar-21 Sep-21 Mar-22 Sep-22 Mar-23 Sep-23
Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23
CCI CEC CEE
CCI Based on Income Group Savings fell to y-t-d low

140 25 78
133.7 75.60
135 131.9 132.2 76
130.0
128.8
128.3 20
130 126.1 75.50 74
124.4
125 120.8 121.3 15.80
15.40 72
15
120 70
115.5
114.0
115 110.8 10 68
110.2 9.10
108.5 8.60
110 66
5
105
64
100
0 62
IDR1-2 mn IDR2.1-3 mn IDR3.1-4 mn IDR4.1-5 mn > IDR5 mn
Sep-20 Mar-21 Sep-21 Mar-22 Sep-22 Mar-23 Sep-23
Loan Repayments Savings Consumption (RHS)
- 40 -
Current Economic Condition
Skepticism seen on lower income group
Current Income Index

• Some lower income group showed skepticism (<100) in Sep-23.
150
140.0 • Current Income Index below from income groups below IDR 4mn
140
132.0
129.2
133.6 decrease with group with income of IDR 1-2mn enter skeptic zone
130 124.2
122.2
124.7 125.5 with index of 96.3
120 113.5 113.2 • Meanwhile, groups with income above IDR 4mn showed increasing
108.3 106.1 current income index.
110 103.2
101.0
100 96.3 • For job availability, income group of IDR 2.1-3mn also seemed skeptic
90
with index of 98.5, yet the lowest income group was showing higher
job availability index
80
IDR1-2 mn IDR2.1-3 mn IDR3.1-4 mn IDR4.1-5 mn > IDR5 mn • On the purchase of durable goods, two income groups (1-2mn & 2.1-
3mn) confidence fell below 100
Job Availability Index Purchase of Durable Goods Index

125 120.5 122.0 120 117.1 117.4
118.8 116.9
120 117.4
116.6 114.0 114.2
114.4 114.7 115 111.7 112.4 111.9
115 111.0 108.1 109.1
109.2 110.6 110
108.1
110 102.6
103.6 105 100.398.8
105 102.0
101.2 99.1
98.5 100 97.5
100
95 95
90 90
85 85
80 80
IDR1-2 mn IDR2.1-3 mn IDR3.1-4 mn IDR4.1-5 mn > IDR5 mn IDR1-2 mn IDR2.1-3 mn IDR3.1-4 mn IDR4.1-5 mn > IDR5 mn
Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23
- 41 -
Retail Sales is expected at 1.0% y-y in September 2023
Supported by automotive related retail sales
Retail Sales Growth Sales Expectation

% y-y 180
40
170
30 160
20 150
10 1.2 140
0 130
1.1
-10 120
-20 110
100
-30
Nov-18
Nov-19
Nov-20
Nov-21
Nov-22
Aug-18
Aug-19
Aug-20
Aug-21
Aug-22
Aug-23
Feb-19
Feb-20
Feb-21
Feb-22
Feb-23
May-19
May-20
May-21
May-22
May-23
Dec-18
Mar-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
Dec-22
Mar-23
Sep-18
Jun-19
Sep-19
Jun-20
Sep-20
Jun-21
Sep-21
Jun-22
Sep-22
Jun-23
Sep-23
Quarter Annual Growth Monthly Annual Growth Sales Expectation in 3 month Price Expectation in 3 month
Many categories show an improving sign
- 42 -
42
Broad Money Supply growth stagnating despite improved loan
Ample liquidity to support further loan growth
Indonesia Money Supply

• Money Supply rose 5.9% y-y in Aug-23, decelerating from Jul's 6.4% y-y. The
% y-y growth was driven by Quasi Money growth at 8.4% y-y.
25
• Loan growth was at 8.9% y-y in Aug-23, lower than previously reported by
20 Bank Indonesia at 9.1% y-y. Corporate loan rose to 8.4% y-y (vs 7.4%) while
Individual loan slightly fell to 9.3% y-y (vs 9.4%). Working Capital rose 8.2% y-y
15 (vs. 7.2%) while Investment and Consumption loan stagnated at 10% y-y (vs.
9.9%) and 9.1% y-y (vs. 9.1%), respectively.
10
• Time Deposit accelerated to 7.4% y-y (vs. 6.7%) with Rupiah time deposit led
with 8.1% y-y growth (vs. 6.9%) as deposit interest rose across tenor by 2-7
5
bps.
0 • Loan-to-Deposit Ratio reached 85.70% in August 2023, a level last seen in
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Nov-2020, providing an ample liquidity to support loan growth.
Quasi M1 M2
Loan & Deposit Growth and LDR Loan Growth by Utilization

% y-y %
% y-y
30 100 20
25 95 15
20
15 90
10
10 85
5
5 80
0 0
-5 75
-5
-10 70
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 -10
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Loan Third Party Fund LDR (RHS)
Investment Working Capital Consumption
- 43 -
Lower Overall M2 despite improvement on Loan Growth
Fiscal Operations remains mundane up to Aug 23
Money Supply Components (IDR tn) Factors Affecting Money Supply (IDR tn)
Money Supply (M1) vs JCI Growth Deposits By Currency (IDR tn)
- 44 -
Banking Sector: Banking Liquidity Remain Ample
Intermediary Trend Still Positive Ample System Liquidity
KPMM – Kewajiban Penyediaan Modal Minimum

ATMR – Aktiva Tertimbang Menurur Resiko
Source : LPS AL/NCD – Alat Likuid/Non-core Deposit
- 45 -
Banking TD Rates: Rising Trend on the Forex
Overall TD Rate IDR & Forex Trend
TD Rates Trend per KBMI
TD Rate 1 & 3 months. Source : LPS
- 46 -
46
Banking TD Rates: KBMI 2 More Aggressive Offering
Smaller Banks (KBMI 2) TD Rates is Now at Par with KBMI 1
TD Rate 1 & 3 months. Source : LPS
- 47 -
47
Third Party Fund Growth Remains Stable
Only KBMI 2 Exhibit negative growth
Source : LPS
- 48 -
48
Third Party Fund Growth Remains Stable
KBMI 4 vs KBMI 2 Key Difference
49
Centra & Regional Govt, Ministry, SOEs; Foundation, Cooperative, Charitable Organization, Resident and Non Resident Organization; Source : LPS
- 49 -
New loan growth expectation continue to improve
Stronger Demand on Investment and Working Capital Loan
New Loan Disbursement Expectation (%, SBT) New Loan Disbursement Expectation by type of banks (%, SBT)
95.4 97.7 97.4 100 100

94.5 91.5
79.5 86.2 86 84.6
76.9 73.1
67.1 70.2
56.9 53 54.4 56.9
45.1 41.7
31.8
23.4 26.8
Investment Working Capital Consumption Other Consumption

(Housing) Total Commercial Bank Islamic Bank Regional Bank
Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23
Lending Standard Change (%, SBT) Lending Standard Change (%, SBT)
2.4
40.4 38.3 1.9 1.9 2 2.1 2
0.4
2.3 4.1
1.7 0.2 0.1
-1
Total Commercial Bank Islamic Bank Regional-2.7
Bank Investment Working Capital Consumption Other Consumption
(Housing)
Jul-23 Aug-23 Jul-23 Aug-23
Source: Bank Indonesia
- 50 -
Usage of Internal Funding Still Dominates
Household Financing still mostly dominate by Commercial Banks
Corporate Demand For Financing Corporate Source of Financing
Total 14.7 Retained Earnings 62.0

17.6 59.6
Agriculture 4.9 Increase loan from domestic banks 12.0
6.6 9.1
Trade 0.5 Utilizing loose credit facility 4.0
1.2 7.1
Transportation & Storage 0.3 Selling non-productive asset 4.0
0.9 5.1
Manufacturing 3.1 Debt from parent company 4.0
2.4 4.0
Information & Communication 1.20 Others 14.0
0.4 13.1
Aug-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Jul-23
Source: Bank Indonesia Source: Bank Indonesia
Household Financing Source Trend Household Financing Type
39.8 43.6 42.2

37.1
21.722.3
17.3 21 19.6
13.5 12.811.9 16
4.7 5.5 6.2 6.7 12.1
8.6 9.1
6.1
3.8
Commercial Rural Banks Leasing Cooperative Fintech Others'
Banks Housing Vehicles Multi-purpose HH Equipment Credit
Jul-23 Aug-23 Jul-23 Aug-23
Indoensia
Source: Bank Indonesia Source: Bank Indonesia
- 51 -
Fiscal Spending Acceleration to Support Growth in 2H23
Sept Fiscal Spending The Highest in 2023
State Budget Surplus Trend y-t-d State Budget 9M2023

IDR tn
400 235 204
132 128 152 154 147 Revenue 2,036
200 91 68 1,975
0
Expenditure 1,968
-200 1,914
-400
68 0.32% of GDP
-600 Surplus
61 0.31% of GDP
-800
Financing 163
-1000 432
-1200
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2000-2022 2023 2023M9 2022M9
SILPA Estimates y-t-d Monthly Revenue & Expenditure

IDR tn IDR tn
500 459 400
450 350
400 332
314 323 318 300
350 307
287
300 250
231
250 187 200
200 150
150
100
100
50 50
0 0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Surplus(Deficit) Financing SILPA
Revenue Expenditure
Source: Ministry of Finance, BRI Danareksa
- 52 -
52
Deficit to fall nearing 2% of GDP
Monthly Cumulative
Surplus Surplus
Date Revenue Expenditure Revenue Expenditure % to GDP
(Deficit) (Deficit)
Jan-23 232.2 141.4 90.8 232.2 141.4 90.8 0.43%
Feb-23 187.4 146.4 41.0 419.6 287.8 131.8 0.62%
Mar-23 227.5 230.8 -3.3 647.2 518.7 128.5 0.61%
Apr-23 353.4 247.1 106.2 1,000.5 765.8 234.7 1.11%
May-23 208.8 239.2 -30.4 1,209.3 1,005.0 204.3 0.97%
Jun-23 198.6 250.7 -52.1 1,407.9 1,255.7 152.2 0.72%
Jul-23 206.9 205.5 1.3 1,614.8 1,461.2 153.6 0.73%
Aug-23 207.1 213.5 -6.4 1,821.9 1,674.7 147.2 0.70%
Sep-23 213.7 293.2 -79.5 2,035.6 1,967.9 67.7 0.32%
Oct-23 213.0 423.1 -210.1 2,248.6 2,391.0 -142.4 -0.67%
Nov-23 201.8 267.9 -66.1 2,450.4 2,658.9 -208.5 -0.99%
Dec-23 256.4 472.9 -216.5 2,706.8 3,131.8 -425.0 -2.01%
• The Ministry of Finance (MoF) has reported a reduced surplus of IDR 67.7 trillion for the 9M23 State Budget. While revenues are aligned with our
projections, government spending is ahead of our expectations with September standing out as the month with the highest spending in 2023. Further
acceleration on spending initiatives on rice aid and direct cash assistance is sufficient to offset the impact of BI's recent rate hikes on economic growth
and to maintain our baseline GDP growth estimate of 5.06% for FY23. The MoF anticipates that the recent stimulus package (rice aid, BLT, and
incentives for the property sector) will contribute 0.06 ppt to FY23 GDP growth, resulting in total GDP growth of 5.1%.
• We anticipate a larger fiscal operation, with our year-end budget deficit estimated to be -2.0% of the GDP, lower than the government's target of 2.3%
deficit. The government is expected to increase spending in October (primarily for fiscal support) and in December (mainly for subsidy payments). We
project that overall spending in the 4Q23 will amount to IDR 1,163.9tn, up 63.4% q-q.
Source: Ministry of Finance, BRI Danareksa
- 53 -
53
Macro vs Micro: Dysconnectivity of Trend
2023 GDP: Revised up on stronger than expected 2Q
GDP Growth 2023
• Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the expected fiscal expansion and election funds are likely to support mass market
consumption.
• Our study indicates that election-related activities can add 0.33 - 0.39 percentage points to annual GDP growth. On average, GDP growth
during normal years (excluding election and pre-election periods) is 4.87%, while the growth averages during pre-election and election
periods are 5.42% and 5.03%, respectively.
• We revise up our Q3 & FY GDP growth forecasts, based on the above forecast Q2 GDP, to 4.98% y-y growth in Q3 (vs. 4.93% in our
previous forecast) and to 5.06% y-y growth in FY23 (vs. 5.00%).
- 54 -
54
BRIDS 2Q23 Results Compilation
Moderation in overall growth is expected
2Q23 Results Recap vs. Consensus 2Q23 Results Recap vs. BRIDS Forecast
Source: Bloomberg Source: BRIDS
• Commodity, Poultry and Property reported stronger than expected earnings, while Telcos, Tower, Consumer Health, and Media’s results were
below expectation.
• Below expectation results now accounts for 45% of our coverage vs only 15% corporates that reported above expectation. In the 1Q23, below and
above expectation results relatively similar at 25-29%.
• With the expected fiscal expansion and election fund in 2H, mass market consumption is expected to be well supported.
- 55 -
BRIDS 2Q23 Results Compilation
Moderation in overall growth is expected
Historical Results vs Consensus Historical Results vs BRIDS
QoQ Earning Growth (Q2-23) Cumulative YoY Earning Growth (1H23)
Source: Company, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas Source: Company, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas
- 56 -
Macro vs Micro: Will The Dysconnectivity of Trend Protracts?
3Q23 Corporate Earnings Growth will improve to 5% y-y vs -2% in 2Q23
3Q23 Growth Y-Y and Q-Q
Source: BRIDS Estimates
• Following the weak 2Q23 EPS growth (-2% yoy overall/ +10% ex-mining, based on our coverage universe), we see possibility for 3Q23
earnings to improve slightly (to +5% yoy/ +12% yoy) which we expect to drive 9M23 growth of -1% yoy/ +11% yoy).
• We expect further earnings contraction in 3Q23 for metals and coal, as the sectors will continue to price in lower ASPs, while cost
(particularly for coal) may continue on its uptrend.
- 57 -
57
3Q23 Earnings Preview
The Sectors with Positive Earnings Outlook in 3Q23
BANKING TELCO Consumer

(+27% yoy; -1% qoq in 3Q23F) (+10% yoy; +6% qoq in 3Q23F)
(+14% yoy; -2% qoq in 3Q23F)
The growth may come from higher Robust growth outlook largely
We anticipate banks’ growth in driven by margin improvement from
3Q23 to be driven by re-acceleration subs and price increases to offset
slower data traffic seasonality in lower input costs, while volume may
of loan growth starting in Jul-Aug23
3Q23. remain soft in 3Q23 due to still-weak
with resilient NIM. purchasing power.
Cigarette
(+55% yoy; +10% qoq in 3Q23F) Healtcare
(+30% yoy; +23% qoq in 3Q23F)
Still supported by series of ASP hikes
in 1H23, in which enough to offset The improvement of earnings
the excise increases. Our analyst outlook mainly driven by positive
expects revenue to decrease by 8% traffic seasonality post Lebaran in
yoy in 3Q23, but it should post a 3Q23, which should offset lower
solid +58% yoy on the gross profit revenue intensity.
level.
- 58 -
Global Interest Rate Outlook – Room for Rate cut in 2H24
3 Key Risk: El Nino is the biggest risk for Inflation
- 59 -
FOMC Sept 2023 Salient Points
“Higher For Longer” – fewer rate cut expectation in 2024
Higher Growth and Lower

Rate Unchanged Dot Plot: Fewer Rate Cut Unemployment Projections
The Sept FOMC saw no change in interest 2023: The Sept Dot plot indicates the A continuation from June's outlook, the Fed
rates, mirroring the situation in June's median rate of 5.6%, unchanged from has raised its economic growth projections
June projection ↔ while trimming its unemployment forecasts
meeting. Inline with market expectations, in its Sept Summary of Economic Projections
the Fed decided to maintain interest rates - 2024: the median of Fed Funds target (SEC).
at 5.25 – 5.50%. rate is at 5.1% vs Jun’s 4.6% ↑
-GDP growth projection raised to 2.1% in
The Fed continues to emphasize the - 2025: the median Fed Funds target rate 2023 vs March’s forecast of 1.0%. 2024
possibility of another rate hike before is 3.9% vs Jun’s 3.4 ↑ growth is now at 1.5% (vs previously 1.1%)
year-end to better manage the risk of -Unemployment rate projection reduced to
inflation, particularly in light of the
The dot plot dispersion continues to
3.8% in 2023 from Jun’s 4.1%, while in 2024,
remain high in 2024-26, signaling a the rate is cut to 4.1% (vs 4.5% previously).
improving growth outlook.
sustained "higher for longer" stance with
“We will continue to make our decisions reduced expectations for rate cuts. - PCE Inflation projection slightly raised to
3.3% in 2023 (vs Sept’ 3.1%), 2.5% in 2024
meeting by meeting based on the totality and 2.2% in 2025. The inflation will be on
of the incoming data and implications for Fed’s target of 2% only by 2026.
the outlook for economic activity and “We’re in a position to proceed carefully
in determining the extent of additional
inflation as well as the balance of risks.” J
policy firming” J Powell
Powell
- 60 -
The FOMC Current Stands – Higher For Longer
2024: The new Fed Fund Rate target would fewer rate cut of 50 bps
Dot plot Sept vs June
Sept 2023 Dot Plot June 2023 Dot Plot
Source: FOMC Summary of Economics Projections
• 2023: The Sept Dot plot indicates the median rate of 5.6%, unchanged from June projection; 2024: the median of Fed Funds target rate is at 5.1%
vs Jun’s 4.6%; 2025: the median Fed Funds target rate is 3.9% vs Jun’s 3.4
• The dot plot dispersion continues to remain high in 2024-26, signaling a sustained "higher for longer" stance with reduced expectations for rate
cuts. According to the new Fed Fund Rate targets, it only indicates 50 bps rate cuts for the next year (vs June’s 100 bps) and a 120 bps cut in 2025
(unchanged).
- 61 -
The FOMC Economic Projection – Higher Growth Expectation in 2023-24
Lower Unemployment rate expectation throughout 2025
Economic projections in Sept 2023
Source: FOMC Summary of Economics Projections
• A continuation from June's outlook, the Fed has raised its economic growth projections while trimming its unemployment forecasts in its Sept Summary of
Economic Projections (SEC).
• -GDP growth projection raised to 2.1% in 2023 vs March’s forecast of 1.0%. 2024 growth is now at 1.5% (vs previously 1.1%)
• -Unemployment rate projection reduced to 3.8% in 2023 from Jun’s 4.1%, while in 2024, the rate is cut to 4.1% (vs 4.5% previously).
• - PCE Inflation projection slightly raised to 3.3% in 2023 (vs Sept’ 3.1%), 2.5% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025. The inflation will be on Fed’s target of 2% only by
2026.
- 62 -
Recent Fed Member Comments – Dovish Tone
More Indication of A Pause
Susan Collins Christopher Waller Neel Kashkari

Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Federal Reserve Governor Minneapolis Fed President
“Importantly, the rise in long-term “We're in this position where we kind
yields implies some tightening of of watch and see what happens on “It's certainly possible that higher
financial conditions. If it persists, it rates." long-term yields may do some of
likely reduces the need for further "The financial markets are the work for us in terms of
monetary-policy tightening in the tightening up and they are going to bringing inflation back down”
near term” do some of the work for us”
Raphael Bostic Philip Jefferson Lorie Logan

Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Federal Reserve Vice Chair Dallas Fed President
“I actually don't think we need to “As a policymaker, I have to be “If long-term interest rates
increase rates anymore” mindful when I’m trying to think remain elevated because of
about the restrictive stance of higher term premiums, there
“Policy is sufficiently restrictive, and policy that the cumulative effect of may be less need to raise the
"a lot" of the impact of the Fed's rate past interest rate increases has not fed funds rate”
hikes so far is clearly yet to come” yet been fully felt”
Mary C. Daly Loretta Mester Patrick Harker

SF Federal Reserve Bank President Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Philadelphia Fed President
“If the economy looks the way it “I believe that we are at the
“The need for us to take further did at the next meeting, similar to point where we can hold rates
action is diminished because the way it looked at our recent where they are”
financial markets are already moving meeting, I would do the further
into that direction, and they’ve done rate increase” “Look, we did a lot, and we did
the work.”
it very fast”
Blue box = Voting Member, Orange box = Non-voting member; Source: Bloomberg, CNBC, Various Media Portals
- 63 -
Key Message From J Powell
Inflation is still too high. Lower Economic growth is likely needed to bring it down
In a highly awaited address given to the Economic Club

of New York (19 Oct 23), J Powell refrained from
committing to specific set of policy direction. Also, he
provided no sign of leaning towards an upward push
for interest rates.
Probability of Pause in Nov FOMC meeting is now close

to 100%.
Key Remarks
“Inflation is still too high, and a few months of good data are only the beginning of what it will take to build confidence that inflation is moving down
sustainably toward our goal”
“We cannot yet know how long these lower readings will persist, or where inflation will settle over coming quarters”
“While the path is likely to be bumpy and take some time, my colleagues and I are united in our commitment to bringing inflation down sustainably to 2
percent”
“Incoming data over recent months show ongoing progress toward both of our dual mandate goals —maximum employment and stable prices”
“Additional evidence of persistently above-trend growth, or that tightness in the labor market is no longer easing, could put further progress on inflation at risk
and could warrant further tightening of monetary policy”
“The Committee is proceeding carefully. We will make decisions about the extent of additional policy firming and how long policy will remain restrictive based
on the totality of the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks”
- 64 -
The Beige Book Oct 23: Moderating Economic Growth
Loand Demand slight to modest declines
Economic Conditions: The near-term outlook for the economy was generally
described as stable or having slightly weaker growth. Consumer spending was
mixed, especially among general retailers and auto dealers, due to differences in
prices and product offerings. Tourism activity continued to improve, although
some Districts reported slight slowing in consumer travel, and a few Districts
noted an uptick in business travel.
Banking: Banking contacts reported slight to modest declines in loan demand.

Consumer credit quality was generally described as stable or healthy, with
delinquency rates still historically low but slightly increasing.
Employment: Labor market tightness continued to ease across the nation. Most
Districts reported slight to moderate increases in overall employment, and firms
were hiring less urgently. Several Districts reported improvements in hiring and
retention as candidate pools have expanded and those receiving offers have been
less inclined to negotiate terms of employment. However, most Districts still
reported ongoing challenges in recruiting and hiring skilled tradespeople.
Inflation: Prices continued to increase at a modest pace overall. Districts noted that
input cost increases have slowed or stabilized for manufacturers but continue to rise
for services sector firms. Increases in fuel costs, wages, and insurance contributed to
growth in prices across Districts. Sales prices increased at a slower rate than input
prices, as businesses struggled to pass along cost pressures because consumers had
grown more sensitive to prices.
- 65 -
Rate Cut Expectation in the 2024
Higher for longer narrative dominates
Trade Weighted US Dollar Index – 26 currencies Dollar Index (DXY) – 6 Major Currencies
Source: CME Fedwatch; 30 Oct 2023; Trading Economics; MacroMicro
- 66 -
Re-steepening of the Yield Curve
Long end yield rose faster
Fed Rate vs Yield Yield Spread
Component of 10 yrs Bond Yield Copper/Gold Ratio vs 10 yrs Yield
Source: CME Fedwatch; 30 Oct 2023; Trading Economics; MacroMicro
- 67 -
Yield Curve Steepening
Bull vs Bear Steepening Trend? Signal of the rise of “Fiscal Dominance”
Source: MacroMicro; BRI Danareksa Sekuritas
- 68 -
Higher Supply Risk As The Biggest Risk
Rising Term Premium in Recent Weeks
Rising Term Premium
3.5 250
3.0
2.5 200
2.0
1.5
150
1.0
0.5
100
0.0
-0.5
-1.0 50
-1.5
-2.0 0
'10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23
Term Premium Option Volatility Index (RHS)
TGA Considerable Increase in Recent Months.
2,000 6
5
1,500
4
1,000 3
2
500
1
0 0
'10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23
TGA 10y UST (RHS)
Source: Bloomberg, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas
- 69 -
Rising Yield on Deluge of Supply
Risk potential to US Banks
Treasury General Account (USDm) US Banking Unrealized Gain (Loss) on Investment Securities
Source: MacroMicro Source: FDIC
Fed Balance Sheet Trend (USDm) Overnight Reverse Repo Facility (USDm)
Source: TradingEconomics Source: Trading Economics
- 70 -
Job and Unemployment – Back to Strong Figure in Sept
Frequent revisions to the NFP resulted in a skewed historical trend
Non Farm Payroll • In September 2023, nonfarm payrolls in the US increased by

336,000, which was significantly higher than the upwardly revised
figure of 227,000 for August and exceeded market expectations of
170,000. This represents the most robust job growth in eight
months and surpasses the range of 70,000 to 100,000 jobs needed
per month to accommodate the expansion of the working-age
population. This indicates that the labor market is gradually
stabilizing and remaining resilient despite the Federal Reserve's
efforts to tighten monetary policy.
• Job gains were observed in several sectors, including leisure and
hospitality (96,000), which exceeded the average monthly increase
of 61,000 over the past year, government (73,000), surpassing the
average monthly gain of 47,000 over the same period, health care
(41,000), professional, scientific, and technical services (29,000),
and social assistance (25,000).
Unemployment rate (%) Average Hourly Earnings Y-Y (%)
- 71 -
US Sept 23 CPI: Core Inflation Continue to Decline
Rent Inflation is Expected to Moderate Further
US Inflation Monthly Inflation
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
In September 2023, the US CPI increased by 3.7%, surpassing expectations by 0.1

percentage points, despite remaining unchanged from August. Energy prices,
although displaying some improvement, continued to decline at a slower pace than
anticipated. Other significant categories, including food, showed a deceleration in
the inflation rate.
As monetary policy lace more weight on core number, we continue to see trend
towards easing. The main driver of core inflation, which is shelter, has experienced a
consistent decline for nine consecutive months, now standing at 7.2% y-y, despite
some uptick on the monthly shelter inflation in Sept.
The current trend of disinflation continues to align with our expectations, and we
would expect further moderation in US core CPI. Nonetheless, the current high
energy price may keep headline inflation elevated, potentially leading to “higher for
longer” situation on the Fed Fund Rate.
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
- 72 -
US PCE August 2023
Core prices continued to decline
US PCE US PCE Aug-23 Breakdown
% y-y
6.1%
8
4.9%
6 3.1%
4 0.8% 0.7%
0.2% 0.2%
-3.6%
-2
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Goods Services Food Energy
Headline Core m-m y-y
• US PCE rose 3.5% y-y in Aug-23, slightly above Jul’s 3.4% and matching market expectation. Price of goods only rose by 0.7% y-y while services still
increased by 4.9% y-y.
• Energy still declining from a year ago with -3.6% y-y growth. From a monthly standpoint, PCE rose 0.4% in Aug (vs. Jul’s 0.2%). Goods price rose 0.8%
and services prices rose 0.2%. Energy price led the monthly increase with 6.1% m-m.
• The Core PCE rose 3.9%, the lowest since May 2021, indicating a decreasing pressure on underlying basket of prices.
• Market expectation on another 25 bps rate hike in November continue to decrease post the announcement.
Source: US BEA
- 73 -
When will the shelter cost start to fall?
EOR and Rent Inflation will remain elevated until end of 2023
Market Rent Indexes Versus PCE Rent Price Index Indexes of Rent Growth
Source: Fed Reserve Bank of Richmond Source: Fed Reserve Bank of Richmond
• Several indexes have been developed in recent years, according to the Fed Reserve Bank of Richmond, to provide more real-time evaluations of rentals. It has
been investigated how changes in these indices' measures relate to variations in PCE or consumer price index (CPI) rents. In the 2022 working paper "The
Coming Rise in Residential Inflation" explores the relationship between the official residential inflation measures used in CPI and PCE and market rents as
captured by the SFRI and ZORI. It finds that year-over-year growth rates in market rents have been powerful leading indicators for Owner Equivalent Rent
(OER) and rent inflation. In particular, year-over-year growth of OER inflation correlates most strongly with 12-month lags of private rents, while year-over-year
growth of rent inflation correlates most strongly with 13-month lags of private rents.
• Core inflation's main driver, housing, has steadily declined for eight consecutive months, currently standing at 7.2% y-y, with monthly shelter inflation hitting a
two-year low of 0.3% m-m. The CPI housing indicator lags behind the current market rent prices, as evident in the Zillow Rent Price Index inflation peaking in Feb
2022, while the CPI Rent for Housing reached its peak in Mar 2023, with around a one-year difference. While last month's Rent CPI still showed 7.3% growth, the
Zillow index has returned to 3.25% y-y level.
- 74 -
Rising Energy Prices
Lower momentum for further disinflation print
US Gasoline Price Food Price Index
300,00
250,00
200,00
150,00
100,00
50,00
0,00
01/20
03/20
05/20
07/20
09/20
11/20
01/21
03/21
05/21
07/21
09/21
11/21
01/22
03/22
05/22
07/22
09/22
11/22
01/23
03/23
05/23
07/23
09/23
Food Price Index Meat Dairy Cereals Oils Sugar
Source: US Energy Information Source: FAO
Crude Oil WTI Strategic Petroleum Reserve (000 barrels)

750000
700000
650000
600000
550000
500000
450000
400000
350000
300000
Sep-10
Sep-11
Sep-12
Sep-13
Sep-14
Sep-15
Sep-16
Sep-17
Sep-18
Sep-19
Sep-20
Sep-21
Sep-22
Sep-23
Weekly U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in SPR (Thousand Barrels)
Source: Trading Economics Source: US Energy Information
- 75 -
US Economy State: Growth Deceleration in 4Q23
3Q23 GDP was higher than expectation
Quarterly GDP Trend Evolution of 4Q23 Quarterly GDP growth
Source: Fed Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Contribution to 3Q23 GDP Growth • The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally
adjusted annual rate) in the 4Q23 is 2.3% on October 27. The initial
estimate of third-quarter real GDP growth released by the US Bureau of
Economic Analysis on October 26 was 4.9%, 0.5 ppt below the final
GDPNow model nowcast released on October 25.
• The US economy expanded an annualized 4.9% in the 3Q23, the most
since the 4Q21, above market forecasts of 4.3% and a 2.1% expansion in
Q2, the advance estimate showed.
• Consumer spending rose 4%, the most since 4Q21 (vs 0.8% in 2Q23), led
by consumption of housing and utilities, health care, financial services
and insurance, food services & accommodations and nondurable goods
(led by prescription drugs), recreational goods and vehicles.
Source: Bureau of Labour Statistics via the Fed Reserve Banks of St Louis
- 76 -
The Implication of China Property Market Downturn
Trade and Financial Channel Impact on Indonesia
GDP Wealth Effect Collateral
Real Estate accounts for Property accounts for c. 40% of collateral hold
c. 25-20% of China 70% of Chinese’ by banks
Economy through household wealth.
Property, Construction
and Financial
Impact to Indonesia would be on two forms: Trade Channel and Financial Channel. Lower growth activity will reduce demand of
commodity, hence, will potentially weaken Indonesia’s outlook of export growth. On the financial channel, the impact will be less
negative, we believe, as moderation on China growth could lead to potential inflow to Indonesia capital market, which still showing
robust growth trajectory, supported by fiscal expansion and infusion of election fund.
- 77 -
China benign growth narrative will slightly benefit Indonesia
No bailout would result in softer pace growth, reducing capital outflow risks
What happen in Dec-2022 when China recovery story took place?
IDR/USD Equity Net Foreign Flow

15,800
USD mn USD bn
15,600 1,000 80
500 60
15,400
40
0
20
15,200 -500
0
-1,000 -20
15,000
-1,500 -40
14,800
14,600
Indonesia China
• We are of the view that Indonesia stands to benefit from the China’s current turmoil. The recovery narrative in China led to a portfolio outflow towards the end
of the previous year. Following China's relaxation of stringent Covid restrictions in Q4-2022, foreign capital began leaving Indonesia and other emerging markets,
flowing into China and North Asia market. This movement exerted upward pressure on the Rupiah, causing it to remain elevated at around IDR 15,500 during
November and December 2023.
• The absence of a bailout policy would enable China's recovery to occur in a more gradual manner, with the growth pace becoming gentler. Given the resilience of
our economy amid this upheaval, the trade-off between choosing Indonesia and China for foreign investment would be mitigated.
- 78 -
China Slowdown impact to Indonesia
Overall impact of 0.2 ppt to Indonesia 2024 GDP Growth
Impact on 2024 GDP Growth From China’s Consumption Slowdown Impact on 2024 GDP Growth From China’s Property Slowdown
• According to the World Bank’s East Asia and Pacific October 2023 Economic Update, regional growth this year is higher than average growth
projected for all other emerging market and developing economies but lower than previously projected. Growth in China in 2023 is projected to be
5.1% and in the region excluding China to be 4.6%. Growth among Pacific Island Countries is expected to be 5.2%.
• In 2024, improving external conditions will help growth in the rest of the region but persistent domestic difficulties in China – the fading of the
bounce back from the re-opening of the economy, elevated debt, and weakness in the property sector, structural factors such as aging – will weigh
on growth in China, slowing it to 4.4% in 2024. Growth in the rest of the region is expected to edge up to 4.7% in 2024, as recovery in global
growth and easing of financial conditions offsets the impact of slowing growth in China and trade policy measures in other countries.
Source: World Bank
- 79 -
China Politburo Meeting
Challenges are addressed but lack specific action
 The Politburo Meeting has addressed several issues that currently lingering on China’s economic recovery.
 While the Gov’t has expressed their acknowledgement of the issue, there’s still no specific plan to overcome those challenges.
• There going to be a reduction in tax and fees as part of the fiscal expansion GDP Share (%)
FISCAL • Gov’t would also push for the issuance of special local gov’t bonds 0.93 2.42 2.59 3.21
16.77 17.3 15.81 16.08
• City-based approach, a call for “more affordable” housing.
• Further relaxation of home purchase in Tier-1 and Tier-2 cities is on the horizon. 39.25
PROPERTY • Gov’t intend to rebuild market expectation. Anticipate housing market to gradually
38.2 38.11 37.17
bottom-out in Q4-2023 and 2024
• Gov’t will formulate “a basket of plans” but still no official strategy 43.25 43.37 43.14 43.48
• Special bonds issuance will be quickened and plan will be made to reduce local debt
LOCAL GOV’T DEBT risks
2019 2020 2021 2022
• In 1H2023, Local Gov’t issued CNY2.17 tn for nearly 20k projects and expected to Investment Personal Consumption
issue the remaining quota (2023 quota: CNY3.8 tn) in Q3 to drive investment Gov't Consumption Net Exports
• Gov’t wanted to turn the HH Consumption into the key driver of growth where it Unemployment Rate (%)
21.3
will boost the consumption of vehicles, electronic products, household suppliers,
HOUSEHOLD and other kinds of mass-consumer goods and promote the consumption of sports,
CONSUMPTION entertainment, and cultural tourism.
• Many parties believe a direct consumption vouchers is need rather than some
subsidy
5.2
• Efforts will be taken to stabilize employment, especially the youth employment

which has reach 21%.
Dec-22
Aug-22
Oct-22
Mar-23
May-23
Jul-22
Sep-22
Jan-23
Nov-22
Feb-23
Jun-23
Apr-23
EMPLOYMENT • Gov’t will regain confidence from the private sector after the tech and other sectors
crackdown to make them start investing again Youth Unemployment
Unemployment
Source: Bloomberg, Trading Economics
- 80 -
China LPR cut – Lower than expected
No sign of policies support
Indonesia & China Interest Rate

China's PBoC confirmed to reduce the one-year loan prime rate (LPR)
6.0
by 10 basis points to 3.45% while keeping the five-year rate at 4.2% in
5.5
August-23. Such move was below market expectation.
5.0
The 5Y rate, mostly tied to mortgage, was unchanged, a perplexed
4.5
move given the current ailing property market in China. The decision
4.0
to keep the 5Y shows that the PBoC is making an effort to reign the
3.5
weakening Yuan – this is supportive for IDR too.
3.0
Despite uncertainty surrounding the property sector's bond due to
Jul-21
Jul-22
Jul-23
Sep-21
Sep-22
May-21
May-22
May-23
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
Mar-21
Nov-21
Mar-22
Nov-22
Mar-23
Country Garden's delayed coupon payments as new home sales
decreased, PBoC made the decision to maintain the 5Y rate, the
BI7DRR LPR 1Y LPR 5Y
industry benchmark for mortgage rates.
China Government Fiscal Deficit

China Government Debt to GDP

- 81 -
Rate Policy Determinants Tracker
Sign of tightening biased are showing
• Our BI7DRR tracker suggests that several factors show a sign of further tightening biased, based on several observations:
• The historic low rate spread (Fed vs BI rate) would lead to greater risk on rupiah, which has been strengthening year to date. A rate reduction at
this juncture could undermine the Rupiah’s stability.
• In addition, the extent of open market operation in our financial system suggests that there is still a significant need for intervention.
- 82 -
10 most traded exchange rate
A broad rate pause has started
Rate Movement (bps) Rate Movement (percentage of 10 countries)
200 200 4 4
5 5
6
8 8 8
140 1 9
125 10 10 10
100
6
75 5 5 5
4
50 1
2 2
25 1 1
15
0 0 0
Hike Cut Stay
10 Exchange Rate: USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD, CHF, CNY, HKD, NZD
- 83 -
September Inflation fell to 2.28% y-y, the lowest point
Uptrend on rice price offset by Pertalite high-base effect
Indonesia Inflation Monthly Inflation of Education

% YoY
20
15
10
0
Aug-18
May-19
Aug-19
May-20
Aug-20
May-21
Aug-21
May-22
Aug-22
May-23
Aug-23
Nov-18
Feb-19
Nov-19
Feb-20
Nov-20
Feb-21
Nov-21
Feb-22
Nov-22
Feb-23
-5
Administered Volatile Core Headline
Shallot deflation (green) and Rice inflation (red) are offseting Rice Grain Price
0.18
Monthly Inflation IDR/kg
7,000
0.06
0.01 0.01 0.01
6,000
Rice Fuel Cell phone tarrif College fee Machine-made
Cigarettes
0.55 5,000
Annual Inflation
0.19 0.18 4,000

0.08 0.08
Rice Machine-made Housing Garlic Gold

Cigarettes GKP GKG
Source: Indonesia Statistics, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas
- 84 -
Rising weather risk
El Nino is approaching
Indonesia Inflation during El-Nino • El-Nino would pose headwind for near-term disinflationary process.
Based on historical analysis, inflation during El-Nino was 0.31 p.p
El Nino BI Rate Inflation higher than ex-El Nino period which translated to lower retail sales
10 1 growth of 0.60 p.p.
8 • The inflationary pressure of El-Nino had low impact on BI Rate.
BI7DRR increase in 2018 was more due to increased FFR by The Fed
6
• Despite rising risks, Gov’t intervention will provide mitigation for the
4
expected supply constraint such as the case of cooking oil and rice
2 price.
0 0 • Overall impact on HH GDP would be limited as we found that there
Sep-10
Sep-12
Sep-14
Sep-16
Sep-18
Sep-20
Sep-22
May-11
May-13
May-15
May-17
May-19
May-21
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
Jan-16
Jan-18
Jan-20
Jan-22
are shifting consumption from Food-related product to
transportation which has small El-Nino impact.
Indonesia Retail Sales during El-Nino El-Nino Impact on Macro Variable
% YoY Propensity
El Nino Retail Sales Growth Retail HH
30 1 Variable Inflation1 to CCI CEI NTP
Sales2 GDP
Consume
20
unit % YoY % YoY % Index Index Index % YoY
10
El Nino 4.34 9.30 67.67 117.23 105.02 102.04 4.93
0
-10 Ex-El Nino w/o
4.03 9.90 69.53 116.39 106.01 104.07 5.02
-20 0
Pandemic
Dec-14
Dec-21
Jul-15
Jul-22
Mar-13
Aug-12
Apr-17
Mar-20
Aug-19
Oct-13
Feb-16
Sep-16
Oct-20
Feb-23
May-14
Jun-18
May-21
Jan-12
Jan-19
Nov-17
∆ 0.31 -0.60 -1.86 0.84 -0.98 -2.03 -0.09

1. Ex-El Nino period exclude period of high inflation in 2013 & 2014
Source : BRIDS, Bloomberg, Ministry of Trade 2. Ex-El Nino period exclude period of low retail sales and HH GDP during and post pandemic
- 85 -
The Return of El Nino
Higher probability of moderate type of El Nino
SOI Index Monthly SOI Index 30 Day Moving Average
Source : Australian Bureau of Meteorology
• The El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) Outlook remains at El Niño Alert. When El Niño Alert criteria have been met in the past, an El Niño event
has developed around 70% of the time.
• The 30-, 60- and 90-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values for the period ending 8 Oct were slightly ease at -12.7, -11.0 and -12.2 respectively
(vs 24 Sept 2023: −16.0, −13.1 and −10.2, respectively).
• Sustained negative values of the SOI below −7 typically indicate El Niño, while sustained positive values above +7 typically indicate La Niña.
• Aside from weather anomalies, geopolitical tension would remain as the key risk for food supply.
- 86 -
Rice Price Inflationary Effect Is Easing
Price starts to moderate as Rice Stock is picking up
Rice Price Average in Traditional Market

IDR/kg % m-m Monthly price growth moderates
15,000
5 4.3
14,500
4
14,000
3
13,500 1.8
13,000 2 1.4
12,500 1
12,000 0
11,500 -1
11,000 -2
Jul-20
Jul-21
Jul-22
Jul-23
Apr-20
Apr-21
Apr-22
Apr-23
Oct-20
Oct-21
Oct-22
Oct-23
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
Rice Stock in Cipinang Rice Market keep rising Price is falling in Cipinang Rice Market
'000 ton IDR/kg
13,223
45 13,500 12,832
40 12,412
12,500 11,973 12,082 12,002 12,056
35 11,673 11,855
11,339
30 11,500
32.6
25 10,500
25.2 26.3
20 23.3 23.9
20.8 9,500
15 19.2 18.1
15.7 16.3
10 8,500
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023
Source: Bank Indoensia, PT Food Station
- 87 -
Trade Channel Trend – Key Support For Forex Intervention
4 Surplus would moderate on normalized commodity price
- 88 -
Current Account return deficit after 8 quarters
Narrowing Trade Balance Surplus and Larger Primary Income Deficit
Current Account • Current Account recorded the first deficit in 8 quarters at USD 1.9bn or -
0.5% of GDP, down from 1Q2023 surplus at USD3 bn (0.9% of GDP)
USD bn
6 2% • The deficit came after a narrowing of the goods trade balance surplus as ex-
3.0
3 1% Oil & Gas surplus decreased from Q1 (USD 15.2 bn vs 19.0 bn) due to
moderation in key commodity prices.
0 0%
-0.5% • The deficit of the Oil & Gas trade balance slightly widened (-4.3 bn vs -4.0
-3 -1%
-1.9 bn) due to higher consumption during religious holidays and a higher crude
-6 -2% oil price overall.
-9 -3% • There is also a seasonality effect from dividend repatriation, which
-12 -4% contributed to the larger deficit of primary income in the second quarter.
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 • Overall, Indonesia BoP recorded a deficit at USD 7.4 bn which was
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 exacerbated by a deficit in the financial account due to global bond
CA % to GDP (RHS) payments amid net foreign inflows in the capital market.
Goods Trade Balance Primary Income during Q2
USD bn USD bn
30 -4 1
25
19.0 -5
20
15 15.2 -6
10 -7
5
-8
0
-4.0 -9
-5
-4.3
-10 -10 0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
ex-O&G O&G Q2 Primary Income
Source : Bank Indonesia, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas
- 89 -
Current Account return deficit after 8 quarters
Narrowing Trade Balance Surplus and Larger Primary Income Deficit
Current Account Financial Account

USD bn USD bn
25 20
20
15 15
10 10
5
0 5
-5 0
-10
-5
-15
-20 -10
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Goods Service Primary Income Secondary Income Direct Investment Portfolio Investment Financial Derivative Other Investment
Debt Payment as Part of Portfolio Investment Liabilities Public Debt Payment detail
USD bn USD bn
8 8 2
6 6
4 4 1
2 2
0 0
0
-2 -2
-4 -4
-6 -1
-6
-8 -8
-10 -10 -2
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Long Tenor Short Tenor (RHS)
Public Sector Private Sector
Source : Bank Indonesia, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas
- 90 -
USD Index and Commodity Prices
Falling USD Index may help boost commodity prices
Commodity Cycle
Boom Bust Commodity Price Index
200 1
150 0.8
0.6
100
0.4
50 0.2
0 0
Jul-00
Jul-01
Jul-02
Jul-03
Jul-04
Jul-05
Jul-06
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jul-19
Jul-20
Jul-21
Jul-22
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
DXY Correlation with Commodity Prices
Cycle Start End DXY Brent Gas Coal Gold Nickel Copper Steel Zinc Tin Aluminum
Boom Dec-01 Jul-08 -38% -0.79 -0.68 -0.81 -0.68 -0.76 -0.58 -0.80 -0.77
Boom Mar-09 Apr-11 -14% -0.56 -0.12 -0.23 -0.32 -0.38 -0.49 -0.22 -0.60 -0.41 -0.52
Boom May-20 Jun-22 4% 0.54 0.62 0.70 0.03 0.52 0.02 -0.11 0.43 0.28 0.30
Bust Aug-08 Feb-09 14% 0.08 -0.81 -0.02 0.49 -0.12 0.58 -0.28 -0.25 0.30 -0.78
Bust May-11 Apr-20 33% -0.92 -0.62 -0.44 -0.57 -0.79 -0.85 -0.34 0.34 -0.73 -0.52
Bust Jul-22 Jun-23 -4% 0.61 0.73 0.68 -0.91 -0.27 -0.77 -0.49 0.29 -0.82 -0.20
• The USD Index has a negative correlation with most commodity prices, whether during a commodity boom or bust cycle.
• The post-pandemic commodity boom, which lasted from May 20 to June 22, is an exception. The boom cycle was fueled by supply constraints
when increasing demand due to the economic recovery was unable to be met.
• Rising commodity prices were quickly followed by rising inflation, prompting the Fed to raise the FFR, resulting in an increase in the USD Index.
Source: Bloomberg
- 91 -
FX Reserves declined on BI’s Intervention to Rein Currency Volatility
ARA Ratio approaches lower end of Threshold
Indonesia FX Reserve
• FX reserve fell to USD 134.9bn in Sep-23, a year-to-date low and largest
USD mn monthly drop in 4 months (August’s: USD 137.10bn). It was caused by
150 gov’t foreign debt payment and Rupiah stabilization, according to Bank
140 Indonesia.
130
• While FX reserve ratio to import remains on the safe level (>3 months
120
import), but based on ARA which also considers total net inflow/outflow
110
of USD, the level increasingly down to the lower level of appropriate
100 threshold of 100-150%.
90
80 Assessment Reserve Adequacy Ratio
70
60
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Monthly Influx of TD DHE Valas
USD mn 1 month 3 months 6 months Total

1,200
983
1,000 0
800
533
551
600
7
400 295 293 320
226 228 419 0
9
200 126 93 451
52 90 265
286 11 200
174 115 139 125
- 55
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Source : Kemenkeu, IMF
Source : Bank Indonesia, BRIDS
- 92 -
Trade Balance Continue to Widened in September 2023
Higher crude oil price hold export and import growth from further decline
Indonesia Trade Balance
USD bn
30 10
25 8
6
20
3.4 4
15
2
10
0
5 -2
0 -4
'10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23
Trade Balance (RHS) Export Import
Export-Import Annual Growth Trade Balance Surplus 3-month rolling forward average
%y-y Export Import USD bn

90 8
70 6
50
4
30
2
10
0
-10
-30 -2
-50 -4
Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Jul-21 Jul-22 Jul-23 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23
Source : BPS, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas
- 93 -
Export to decline further
Lower export from Coal and Palm Oil weigh on export
Export Breakdown Top 3 contributor in Sep-23
% y-y
m-m y-y July 2023 Contribution
150
130 Coal -2.2% -47.0% USD 2.2bn 11.4%
110
Palm Oil -23.4% -23.5% USD 1.8bn 9.5%
90
70
Iron & Steel 3.5% 8.8% USD 2.3bn 12.0%
50
Export Destination
30
26.2 26.0 26.7
10
-10 19.2 18.5 18.0
9.0 10.3 9.5

-30 7.4 7.8
8.9
7.7 6.1 6.9
-50
Dec-22
Jul-22
Jul-23
Mar-22
Mar-23
Feb-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Feb-23
Sep-23
May-22
Jun-22
May-23
Jun-23
Jan-22
Jan-23
Nov-22
Apr-22
Aug-22
Apr-23
Aug-23
30.6 30.2 31.1
Manufacturing Mining
September 2022 August 2023 September 2023
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishery Oil & Gas Others Euro Area India US ASEAN China
- 94 -
Import contracted in September
Only consumption import grew positively
Import Component Growth

USD bn
24
20
16
12
0
'05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21 '23
Consumption Raw Materials Capital Goods
% y-y
80
60
40
20
-20
-40
'05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21 '23
Consumption Raw Materials Capital Goods
- 95 -
KTA – Meeting With Bank Indonesia
The 4 Key Discussion Points with Mr. Arief Rachman, Director Monetary Management Department
Fundamental Aspects Pricing Yield Curve OMO Stance
BI has acknowledged the Domestic liquidity continues

a. Maximizing the utilization of BI will adhere to their current
government bonds held by BI. stance, which is contractionary.
possibility of an inverted yield to appear ample, as
b. Complementing the Reverse curve risk emerging as a evidenced by the bid value
Their foremost objective is liquidity
Repo SBN (RR SBN) program. consequence of the rise in during the inaugural SRBI
management. As such, pricing of
c. The cessation of “Operation SRBI will be contingent on short-term tenor yields auction, which reached IDR
Twist” with the introduction of following the introduction of
prevailing liquidity conditions. 29.9 trillion.
SRBI. Should BI decide to absorb more SRBI.
d. Foreign entities and other liquidity, the SRBI yield will rise,
players in the money market can Additionally, he emphasized Although the Open Market
accompanied by an increase in the
access SRBI through the secondary
awarded nominal amount. In the that this situation is expected Operation Outstanding is
market. to be a temporary occurrence. currently below pre-
absence of any stance adjustment,
e. Imposing a tax rate of 15% for pandemic levels, it is not
domestic participants and 20% for
pricing will eventually converge.
foreigners in the secondary
expected to return to the
market. The secondary priority lies in levels seen before the
f. Banks can use SRBI as determining the pricing of other pandemic.
underlying collateral for repo instruments with similar tenors.
transactions with Bank Indonesia. They anticipate that other
g. Conducting SRBI auctions instruments, such as the 1-year
biweekly on Wednesdays and INDOGB yield, will adjust in
Fridays. response to SRBI movements.
- 96 -
Forex Liquidity
Managing IDR Stability
Monthly Influx of TD DHE Valas Rate Average of TD DHE Valas

USD mn
1,200 1 month 3 months 6 months
983 5.90
1,000 919
0
0
800
533 5.40
551
600 703
7
400 295 293
226 228 419 4.90
9
126 93 451
200 52 90
286 11 217
174 200 139
115 125
- 4.40
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
3/2/2023 4/2/2023 5/2/2023 6/2/2023 7/2/2023
1 month 3 months 6 months Total
Forex Interbank Call Money Position USD Time Deposit
IDR tn % IDR tn % p.a

700 7 400 5
600 6
4
500 5 300
400 4 3
200
300 3 2
200 2
100
1
100 1
0 0 0 0
Dec-20
Jun-18
Jul-20
Jun-23
Nov-18
Mar-22
Apr-19
Aug-22
Sep-19
Feb-20
Oct-21
May-21
Jan-18
Jan-23
USD Interbank Position USD Interbank Rate (RHS) USD Time Deposit 1mo 3mo 6mo 12mo 24mo
- 97 -
An Election Year in 2024 – What’s the Pre & Post Impacts?
5 Risk of political deadlock is slim
- 98 -
The Coalition Map - Sept
All Set – Ready to Go!
Prabowo Subianto & Ganjar Pranowo & Anies Baswedan &

Gibran Rakabuming Mahfud MD Muhaimin Iskandar
Gerindra 78 seats/13,57% PDIP 128 seats/22,26% Nasdem 59 seats/10,26%

Golkar 85 seats/14,78% PPP 19 seats/3,30% PKB 58 seats/10,09%
PAN 44 seats/7,65% PKS 50 seats/8,70%
Demokrat 54 seats/9,39%
Total: 261 seats/45,39% Total: 147 seats/25,56% Total: 167 seats/29,05%

.
- 99 -
The Initial Strategy Setting
Major Points from The Candidates
“ Self Sufficiency” “ Continuity” “Equality”
Prabowo presented 17 priority programs. 1. Food and halting exports. Ganjar aims for innovation 1. Equal access to basic facilities in Indonesia, starting
1. The achievement of food self- and the stabilization of staple goods by boosting with healthcare. He desires that access to healthcare,
sufficiency with the goal of becoming a production centers and activating the bureaucracy to from maternal care to the development of children, is
world food barn. monitor staple goods supplies. He also targets the guaranteed through state programs.
2. The eradication or reduction of poverty eradication of poverty down to zero.
in Indonesia. 2. The environment. Ganjar believes that Indonesia is 2. The importance of education access in Indonesia
3. The fight against corruption. thirsty for restoring its natural resources amidst climate because this sector serves as the primary foundation for
4. Comprehensive improvement of change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. He then unlocking the potential of every individual.
healthcare access for the people. seeks to maximize the implementation of green and blue
5. Strengthening national defense to economies. 3. Equal job opportunities for all citizens. He believes
prevent encroachments by other nations. 3. Energy. Ganjar states that Indonesia needs energy that that the current economy is still centralized in Jakarta,
6. Achieving self-sufficiency in water or is not polluting but rather renewable energy (EBT). and therefore, he aims to target 14 other cities to
making water a strategic commodity, as he 4. Digitalization, through infrastructure and digital literacy. become economic hubs, creating extensive job
believes the United Nations has already When maximized, this is predicted to yield Rp4,531 trillion opportunities.
predicted that many countries will face a for Indonesia by 2030.
water crisis. 5. Education and health. Ganjar also desires for the 4. Establish governance for basic needs, such as
7. Achieving energy self-sufficiency. government to genuinely engage in meeting the health ensuring the availability of rice for those in less
needs of children from conception to their education as fortunate circumstances amid rising living costs. He also
they grow. He believes that good health and education will wishes to ensure the well-being of farmers by reforming
reduce unemployment. the agricultural supply chain and combating corruption
6. Law enforcement. The former Governor of Central Java in the agricultural sector.
also aims for Indonesia to maximize strengthening the
Police, Prosecutor's Office, and the Corruption Eradication 5. Prioritizes fair law enforcement, anti-corruption
Commission (KPK). His approach involves doubling the efforts, and enhancing the credibility of the judiciary.
budget, digitalizing the government, and eradicating Anies also desires the Corruption Eradication
corruption. Commission (KPK) to regain its independence as it had
Source: Various Media
before the revision of the KPK law.
- 100 -
Survey Houses Polling Results
Prabowo Is Leading, before and after the VP announcement
Survey Electability Polling Results
June – July Period October Period
Lembaga Survei Prabowo Ganjar Anies

Indikator Politik Indonesia 36.8 35.7 21.5
Lembaga Survei Indonesia 35.8 32.2 21.4
Survei & Poling Indonesia 41.7 30.3 21.0
Utting Research 33.0 34.0 27.0
Lembaga Survei Nasional 40.5 30.8 22.4
Fixpoll Media Polling (West Java) 38.4 33.7 16.9
Accurate Research and Consulting Indonesia 33.7 30.5 23.3
Lembaga Survei Jakarta 40.3 32.6 20.7
Indikator Politik Nasional 42.3 37.4 17.0
Average 38.1 33.0 21.2
Source: Various Media
• Drawing insights from the outcomes of the nine political surveys carried out between June and July, three contenders maintain their positions as
frontrunners as the October's presidential registration approaches.
• Calculated from the average of these nine surveys, Prabowo Subianto takes the lead with 38% backing, closely trailed by Ganjar Pranowo with
33%, and Anies Baswedan securing 22%. In these surveys, Prabowo achieves his highest electability rating of 42.3%, while Ganjar reaches a peak
of 37.4%.
• Post Announcement of the VP, based on the latest polls, there are no significant change in term of ranking position, whereby Prabowo-Gibran still
secured the top spot, followed closely by Ganjar-Mahfud.
- 101 -
KTA from Prof Burhanuddin of LSI
Political elites believe democracy is the only game in town, thus the chance for political deadlock is slim
Jokowi's rising approval rating (above 81%) bodes well for both
Prabowo and Ganjar, but it comes at the expense of Anies. According
to the latest poll, Prabowo and Ganjar's positions are relatively close,
while the gap to Anies is relatively wide. Nonetheless, there are still
8% of undecided voters, which could potentially change the results.
If Prabowo and Ganjar were to compete in the second round, most of

Anies' supporters would switch to Prabowo. A similar scenario would
also occur if Ganjar were to lose in the first round, as his supporters
would then switch to the Prabowo camp.
There is little indication that the 2024 election will lead to major changes
in the economic policy direction, except for the IKN if Anies wins.
Elite Settlement: Political elites believe democracy is the only game in

town, thus the chance for political deadlock is slim.
Political Cartel: There are no clear ideological differences between

parties, and elites would find a larger common ground for collaboration,
given that their primary objective is to enter the government circle and
gain access to the state's patronage resources.
- 102 -
KTA from Yunarto Wijaya of Charta Politika
The VP Selection will be the next focus
Jokowi's popularity remains robust, even with only one year left in his
final term, as he seems to defy the negative trend often associated
with second terms. Additionally, the two candidates, Prabowo and
Ganjar, appear to be trailing behind Jokowi's increasing approval
ratings.
The VP selection for Prabowo and Ganjar will be the next crucial
focus. With Muhaimin Iskandar chosen as Anies' VP, the competition
in East Java will intensify, given its strategic importance as one of the
areas with a large number of voters.
The Constitutional Court (MK) is likely to approve the regulation

regarding candidate age, provided that the candidate has experience as a
government administrator. This development could open the path for
the nomination of Gibran Rakabumin (36 years old and serving as Solo
Mayor) as a Vice Presidential candidate.
Considering Mahfud MD's significant popularity in East Java, he has a

strong chance of being chosen as Ganjar's Vice President. Ridwan Kamil
and Sandiaga Uno have also consistently received high rankings in recent
polls for VP candidates.
- 103 -
Election Spending – higher growth on Consumption and Economic Activity
Non-Profit Institution Consumption Grew Pre-Election Yr. Gov’t Expenditure (%YoY) Trend during Election
NPI Consumption Election NPI Consumption Growth 35

1.40 1 30
25
1
20
1 15
%
10
1.20 1
5
0 0
0 -5
2004 Election 2009 Election
-10 2014 Election 2019 Election
1.00 0
-15
2010Q1
2010Q3
2011Q1
2011Q3
2012Q1
2012Q3
2013Q1
2013Q3
2014Q1
2014Q3
2015Q1
2015Q3
2016Q1
2016Q3
2017Q1
2017Q3
2018Q1
2018Q3
2019Q1
2019Q3
2020Q1
2020Q3
2021Q1
2021Q3
2022Q1
2022Q3
Q+0
Q+1
Q+2
Q+3
Q+4
Q+5
Q-12
Q-11
Q-10
Q-9
Q-8
Q-7
Q-6
Q-5
Q-4
Q-3
Q-2
Q-1
Source: Central Bureau of Statistics, BRIDS Source: Central Bureau of Statistics, BRIDS
Private Consumption (%YoY) Trend during Election GFCF (%YoY) Trend during Election
8 20
6 15
4
10
2
0 5
-2
0
-6 -5 2004 Election 2009 Election
2014 Election 2019 Election
-10
Q-9
Q-8
Q-7
Q-6
Q-5
Q-4
Q-3
Q-2
Q-1
Q+0
Q+1
Q+2
Q+3
Q+4
Q+5
Q-12
Q-11
Q-10
Q+0
Q+1
Q+2
Q+3
Q+4
Q+5
Q-12
Q-11
Q-10
Q-9
Q-8
Q-7
Q-6
Q-5
Q-4
Q-3
Q-2
Q-1
Source: Central Bureau of Statistics Source: Central Bureau of Statistics
- 104 -
Impact on the economy & equity market
Historically, the JCI delivers positive returns during the election year. We see that a smooth and peaceful transition of power
could boost investor and consumer confidence
JCI, LQ45 Performance during Election Revenue Growth JCI companies during Election Years (IDR bn.)
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
Sectoral Performances 2019 Sectoral Performances 2014
- 105 -
Pre and Post Election Year Trends
Higher top line and operating profit pre-election, but risk on growth post election
Growth Trends – Pre and Post Election
2009 Election 2014 Election 2019 Election

Revenue Growth Revenue Growth Revenue Growth
Operating Profit Growth Operating Profit Growth Operating Profit Growth
Source: Bloomberg
- 106 -
JCI During Election Year Snapshot
2019: A Challenging Year On External Risk 2014: Solid Performance on Domestic Catalyst
A continuation of 2018, the equity market in Indonesia remained in a In 2014, global concerns took a back seat and domestic factors continued
challenging environment in 2019, marked by: 1. highly contested to drive the market. Despite the heightened political tensions, the JCI still
presidential elections, 2. trade war uncertainties, 3. higher inclusion factor managed to record a solid return – as has been the case in previous
of A shares in the MSCI EM as well as 4. weak signals of inclusive growth. election years. After the massive outflows in 2013, an improvement in
economic conditions coupled with elections exuberance helped give rise to
inflows in 2014.
- 107 -
Campaign Period Marked the Highest Impact to Consumption Growth
Indonesia GDP Growth during Election Macro Trends during Election

ex Pre
% y-y 2H of Pre-
10 1 Variabel unit All Election election &
election
0.9 Election
8
0.8
0.43 1.50 0.84 0.03
6 0.7 % mtm
Money Supply
4 0.6
% yoy 12.19 12.22 11.42 12.09
0.5
2 0.4
0 0.3 0.81 2.29 0.35 0.75
% mtm
0.2 Retail Sales
-2
0.1 % yoy 6.66 9.45 9.39 5.61
-4 0
Consumer Confidence
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Index 113.82 117.63 121.31 110.07
Index
Election Pre-Election GDP Growth

Government
% yoy 3.15 6.36 3.57 2.67
Administration GDP
• During the campaign period, when political parties significantly increase their spending and the government expedites various projects while
increasing the distribution of social, economic growth tends to occur.
• Our regression analysis findings reveal that overall election years contribute approximately 0.33 percentage points to annual growth, while the
campaign period would contribute higher at 0.39 percentage points.
• On average, GDP growth during normal years (excluding election and pre-election years) stands at 4.87%. However, during pre-election years, it
rises to 5.42%, and during election years, it averages at 5.03%.
• These numbers support our estimation that despite the initial indications of low retail sales and investment in the first half of 2023, the annual
GDP growth could still reach 5% by the end of the year. The anticipated turnaround is expected in the second half when the campaign period
commences.
- 108 -
108
Capital Market: Key Flow Trends
6 Global volatility is on the rise, leading to more frequent rotations
- 109 -
Fund Flow Movement – September 2023 Industry Data
AUM Changes - MoM Participation Unit Changes - MoM
Fixed Money Sharia - Fixed Money Sharia -
Period Mixed ETF Index Equity Protected Grand Total Period Mixed ETF Index Equity Protected Grand Total
Income Mkt. Forgn Sec. Income Mkt. Forgn Sec.
Sep-22 408 (13) (5,716) 1,046 (5,204) 1,697 (1,279) (1,858) (10,919) Sep-22 94 312 (4,290) 1,084 (3,687) (395) (1,051) (21) (7,953)
Oct-22 (1,849) 867 (4,034) (823) (138) (2,030) (3,028) (922) (11,956) Oct-22 (633) 1,161 (2,542) (757) (362) (1,353) (2,541) (100) (7,127)
Nov-22 305 (592) (1,884) 717 (3,015) 446 (3,635) 1,169 (6,489) Nov-22 238 (713) (3,008) 642 (1,742) (531) (3,158) (16) (8,288)
Dec-22 (1,086) 629 (1,738) 1,224 (4,173) (1,940) 457 (663) (7,289) Dec-22 (228) 2,348 (1,765) 1,956 (2,244) 1,108 482 7 1,663
Jan-23 754 585 3,627 295 (1,195) (806) 1,686 (426) 4,520 Jan-23 630 881 1,780 343 (1,111) 168 1,799 (38) 4,451
Feb-23 1,237 247 (1,010) 346 (5,740) (2,215) 3,718 77 (3,339) Feb-23 922 266 (402) 301 (4,209) (738) 3,864 53 57
Mar-23 516 (476) 2,344 (1,402) (3,751) (2,329) 98 (190) (5,191) Mar-23 639 (1,421) 868 (1,605) (3,101) (255) (1) (23) (4,898)
Apr-23 204 (902) 3,072 (1,897) (2,822) (428) (502) (517) (3,792) Apr-23 (17) (1,628) 1,260 (2,098) (2,474) (674) (380) 9 (6,002)
May-23 326 (17) 1,396 869 2,775 400 1,886 79 7,715
May-23 466 (1,290) (381) 886 2,196 190 2,351 (9) 4,408
Jun-23 1,181 1,348 2,615 1,061 (1,963) (790) (32) (33) 3,388
Jun-23 915 1,713 634 834 (901) (669) (442) (24) 2,060
Jul-23 1,553 849 6,256 (301) 530 (3,071) 2,816 (15) 8,616
Jul-23 858 591 3,542 (446) (603) (1,630) 2,569 (30) 4,851
Aug-23 902 865 (1,409) 852 (1,170) (2,194) (1,009) (259) (3,423)
Aug-23 822 1,127 (281) 816 (783) (384) (912) 6 411
Sep-23 (544) 719 (2,727) 188 (3,060) (2,482) 1,345 (388) (6,950)
Sep-23 148 1,253 (956) 305 (1,977) (1,116) 1,137 (4) (1,210)
MoM Changes (544) 719 (2,727) 188 (3,060) (2,482) 1,345 (388) (6,950)
MoM Changes 148 1,253 (956) 305 (1,977) (1,116) 1,137 (4) (1,210)
% Chg. MoM -1.9% 4.4% -1.7% 1.5% -4.0% -2.5% 1.3% -3.0% -1.3%
% Chg. MoM 0.6% 7.9% -1.0% 2.5% -4.0% -1.4% 1.1% -0.5% -0.3%
YoY Chg. 3,500 4,121 6,507 1,128 (23,721) (17,439) 3,799 (2,086) (24,190)
YoY Chg. 4,760 4,288 (1,251) 1,177 (17,312) (5,884) 4,768 (169) (9,623)
% Chg. 14.0% 32.1% 4.3% 9.4% -24.4% -15.2% 3.6% -14.2% -4.5%
% Chg. 24.7% 33.4% -1.2% 10.3% -26.8% -7.1% 4.8% -16.9% -2.4%
AUM Movement - based on Type of Fund

Sharia -
• The mutual fund industry experienced a decrease in both Assets Under
Fixed Money
Period Mixed ETF
Income
Index
Mkt.
Equity Protected Foreign Grand Total Management (AUM) and participation units, with a month-over-month
Securities
decline of 1.3% and 0.3% respectively. AUM for Fixed Income and Equity
Sep-22 25,029 12,854 152,517 11,955 97,189 114,968 104,685 14,724 533,922
Oct-22 23,180 13,721 148,483 11,133 97,051 112,938 101,657 13,802 521,966 Funds saw reductions of IDR2.7 trillion (1.7% decrease month-over-month)
Nov-22 23,485 13,129 146,599 11,850 94,036 113,384 98,022 14,970 515,476 and IDR1.5 trillion (2.5% decrease month-over-month) respectively. Similarly,
Dec-22 22,399 13,758 144,861 13,075 89,864 111,444 98,479 14,308 508,188
Jan-23 23,153 14,343 148,488 13,369 88,669 110,638 100,165 13,882 512,708 participation units for Fixed Income and Equity Funds also declined by 1.0%
Feb-23 24,390 14,590 147,477 13,716 82,929 108,423 103,883 13,959 509,368
and 1.4% month-over-month.
Mar-23 24,906 14,114 149,822 12,314 79,178 106,094 103,981 13,769 504,177
Apr-23 25,111 13,212 152,894 10,416 76,356 105,666 103,478 13,253 500,386 • In September 2023, the cash level in Equity Funds increased to 6.13%, up from
May-23 25,437 13,195 154,289 11,285 79,131 106,066 105,365 13,332 508,100
5.21% in August 2023.
Jun-23 26,618 14,543 156,905 12,346 77,169 105,276 105,333 13,299 511,488
Jul-23 28,171 15,392 163,160 12,044 77,699 102,206 108,148 13,284 520,105 • Notably, the top accumulated stocks were in the Heavy Equipment sector
Aug-23 29,073 16,257 161,751 12,896 76,529 100,012 107,139 13,025 516,682
(UNTR), Mining sector (MEDC, ADMR, NCKL, HRUM), INKP, BBTN, and MIDI.
Sep-23 28,529 16,975 159,024 13,084 73,469 97,530 108,484 12,637 509,732
On the other hand, select mining names (AKRA, ANTM), as well as EXCL, ASII,
BBRI, ICBP, SMGR, and BFIN, were among the top stocks sold.
- 110 -
Cash Level Data – September 2023
12.00
10.00
8.44
8.38
8.15
8.00
7.02
6.69
6.60
6.57
6.46
6.13
5.91
5.91
5.21
6.00
5.03
4.28
4.00
2.00
0.00
Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23
Source : PasarDana, OJK

Cash level position 46/50 funds coverage
- 111 -
Fund Flow Movement – September 2023 Stocks Flow Data
Table 1 : Top Stocks in Mutual Fund Holdings Table 2 : Top Stocks Accumulated/being Sold
Top Stocks Holdings Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23
Avg. cash level
(Equity Fund) 5.78 5.03 4.28 6.46 6.60 7.02 5.21 6.13
TLKM 43 42 42 42 42 42 42 41
BMRI 35 35 36 34 34 35 36 36
ASII 31 31 34 35 42 40 39 35
BBRI 34 34 35 34 34 33 35 33
BBCA 32 32 32 33 33 33 32 33
BBNI 26 27 26 22 25 24 26 26
ADRO 13 12 13 6 7 11 16 17
ICBP 15 13 17 21 22 19 18 16
UNTR 10 17 13 8 10 13 9 15
ISAT 11 7 10 15 12 15 11 10
KLBF 19 17 18 20 17 10 9 9
EXCL 6 5 2 9 8 11 15 9
MDKA 21 16 12 7 4 10 9 8
INDF 13 9 8 11 10 10 8 8
MEDC 3 4 3 3 3 4 5 8
MYOR 8 8 6 8 10 7 7 7
CPIN 1 1 2 5 7 6 7 6
BUMI 6 5 5 3 6 6 7 6
BBTN 4 5 3 4 4 5 4 6
AMRT 5 7 4 5 4 6 6 6
INKP 2 2 1 0 2 1 2 6
GOTO 14 12 14 12 8 7 4 4
PGAS 5 5 3 5 5 4 4 4
SMGR 10 3 0 4 3 6 6 4
MYOH 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4
KBLI 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 4
MAPI 4 4 4 6 6 5 4 4
ADMR 1 1 2 1 1 0 2 4
BRIS 2 7 6 6 4 5 5 4
BRPT 2 2 3 0 0 0 4 4
ERAA 3 2 2 2 2 4 5 4
Source : Bibit, PasarDana, BRI-DS
Reading Top Stocks Holdings : “43” in TLKM Meaning there are 43 Mutual Fund Having TLKM Stock in their Portfolio
Temporary data: 46/50 equity fund
- 112 -
Equity Market Snapshot
Regional Markets (YTD 2023), % Sectoral Performance (YTD 2023), %
Thailand -16.8
Hongkong -12.0 Technology-26.2
Philippines -9.2 Energy -10.4
Singapore -5.8 Industrials -4.5
Malaysia -3.6 Financials -4.1
China -2.3
Healthcare -3.8
Indonesia -1.3
Properties and real estate -3.1
Dow Jones -1.1
UK -1.0 JCI -1.3
Rusia 0.0 Basic Material -0.1
Korea 3.0 Consumer cycle 0.0
India 4.8 Transportation&logistics 1.7
S&P 7.8
Consumer non cyclical 5.4
Taiwan 14.1 % %
Japan Infrastructure 38.8
18.8
-20.0 -16.0 -12.0 -8.0 -4.0 0.0 4.0 8.0 12.0 16.0 20.0 24.0 -30.0 -20.0 -10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0
Regional Markets (Week-on-week; as of Oct 27), % Sectoral Performances (Week-on-week; as of Oct 27), %
Korea -3.0
Philippines -2.9 Technology -3.5
India -2.5 Basic Material -2.2
S&P -2.1 Energy -1.6
Taiwan -1.9
JCI -1.3
Indonesia -1.3
Infrastructure -0.8
Dow Jones -1.0
Properties and real estate -0.7
Japan -0.9
Thailand -0.8 Consumer cycle -0.3
Singapore -0.5 Industrials -0.1
UK -0.4 Financials 0.0
Rusia 0.0 Transportation&logistics 0.4
Malaysia 0.1
Consumer non cyclical 1.4 %
China 1.2 %
Healthcare 1.4
Hongkong 1.3
-3.3 -2.8 -2.3 -1.8 -1.3 -0.8 -0.3 0.2 0.7 1.2 -4.00 -2.00 0.00 2.00
- 113 -
Flows and Trends – 1 – 27 Oct 2023
Table 1 : Top Stocks with Largest Inflow and Outflow 1 – 27 Oct 2023– IDR bn. Table 2 : Focus by Sector, 1 – 27 Oct 2023 – IDR bn.
Ticker Sector Total Flow MTD Perf. Ticker Sector Total Flow MTD Perf. Sector Total Foreign Flow
BBNI Financial-Big 4 Banks 832.4 -6.1% BBRI Financial-Big 4 Banks (2,422.7) -4.3% Basic Material 625
FILM Consumer Cyclicals 563.1 -9.2% BBCA Financial-Big 4 Banks (1,790.8) -1.4% Consumer Cyclicals 596
AMMN Basic Material 495.7 12.7% BMRI Financial-Big 4 Banks (1,212.3) -5.4%
Infrastructure 234 Net Foreign Flow
Transportation & logistics 37
Top 20 Outflow (1 - 27 Oct'23) - in Billion IDR

Top 20 Inflow (1 - 27 Oct'23) - in Billion IDR
INKP Basic Material 285.3 -9.9% GOTO Technology (816.2) -34.1%

Healthcare (44)
23-27 Oct: IDR (2,843) bn
TLKM Infrastructure 179.9 -6.7% MEDC Energy (451.4) -11.8% Properties and real estate (68) 16-20 Oct: IDR (2,724) bn;
TPIA Basic Material 130.3 11.5% ASII Industrials (400.0) -8.0% Financial (129)
ITMG Energy 99.7 -6.9% AKRA Energy (288.3) -6.8% Consumer non cyclical (246)
9-13 Oct: IDR 124 bn
BNGA Financial 92.4 0.3% BTPS Financial (171.8) -17.8% Industrials (351) 2-6 Oct: IDR (28) bn;
ACES Consumer Cyclicals 92.2 12.7% ADRO Energy (154.1) -7.4% Energy (725)
25-29 Sep: IDR (1,210) bn;
CUAN Energy 90.5 56.3% MDKA Basic Material (101.2) -19.1% Technology (808)
JSMR Infrastructure 87.8 -0.9% AVIA Basic Material (87.5) -11.8% Financial-Big 4 Banks (4,593) 18-22 Sep: IDR 910 bn
BRPT Basic Material 81.2 -23.8% INTP Basic Material (78.5) -7.0%
• Foreign outflow in 4th week of October 2023 amounting to
NSSS Consumer non cyclical 76.6 -15.0% ANTM Basic Material (77.0) -5.0%
HRUM Energy 65.4 -8.0% MBMA Basic Material (73.1) -11.8% IDR2.8 tn., bringing JCI performance decreased by 1.3% w-
AUTO Consumer Cyclicals 60.6 -10.4% ADMR Energy (65.9) -16.1% o-w.
DOID Energy 59.2 -22.7% SMGR Basic Material (64.2) -3.9% • Mainly, outflow driven by selling action in Big-4 Banks
UNTR Industrials 55.7 -9.6% INDF Consumer non cyclical (59.1) 1.9% (exclude BBNI) at IDR 4.6tn. (c. 84% of total outflow MTD),
CTRA Properties and real estate 53.3 1.5% PWON Properties and real estate (56.3) -8.2% followed by GOTO MEDC ASII, resulting in share price
EXCL Infrastructure 51.9 -10.9% ICBP Consumer non cyclical (53.5) -5.0%
performance decreased by 34.1%, 11.8%, and 8% MTD,
INCO Basic Material 50.1 -9.3% KLBF Healthcare (53.1) 0.0%
IMPC Industrials 43.2 3.1% MAPA Consumer Cyclicals (52.4) -2.5%
respectively. Meanwhile, BBNI, TLKM, FILM and AMMN still
PRDA Healthcare 40.5 0.0% PANI Consumer non cyclical (42.7) -6.8% consistently remained among the top inflow.
ARTO Financial 40.0 -20.3% LPPF Consumer Cyclicals (42.1) -10.0% • On a weekly basis, Big-4 Banks standing the top outflow,
ERAA Consumer Cyclicals 38.6 -6.6% HMSP Consumer non cyclical (37.8) 0.0% which BBRI continued 11th week of inflow of IDR5.3 tn.
BRMS Basic Material 37.1 -10.4% JPFA Consumer non cyclical (36.6) -4.7% TLKM also topping the outflow list after it became the top
TKIM Basic Material 33.3 -17.0% UNVR Consumer non cyclical (36.4) 6.4%
inflow in previous week. Then, MEDC ASII and GOTO still
ESSA Basic Material 32.3 -20.8% ARNA Industrials (32.6) -13.6%
consistently remained among the top outflow. For inflow
AMRT Consumer non cyclical 32.1 -4.7% TBLA Consumer non cyclical (30.8) 1.1%
SGER Energy 30.8 3.7% CMRY Consumer non cyclical (30.8) -6.5%
standing, there is no significant changes, which FILM INKP
BIRD Transportation & logistics 28.3 -6.9% ISAT Infrastructure (30.1) 0.3% AMMN and UNTR still consistently remained among the top
Source : IDX, BRI-DS
inflow.
- 114 -
Flows and Trends – 23 - 27 Oct 2023
Ticker 23-Oct-23 24-Oct-23 25-Oct-23 26-Oct-23 27-Oct-23 Total Flow 1 Wk. Perf. Ticker 23-Oct-23 24-Oct-23 25-Oct-23 26-Oct-23 27-Oct-23 Total Flow 1 Wk. Perf.
FILM 23.5 31.4 43.4 26.0 30.0 154.4 -9.5% BBRI (112.8) (6.2) (117.3) (844.9) 146.9 (934.2) -1.0%
Top 20 Outflow Previous Week (23 - 27 Oct'23) - IDR bn.

INKP 15.2 19.9 19.3 54.4 24.1 133.0 -2.7% BBCA (114.9) (372.4) 103.2 (206.4) (225.5) (816.0) -3.1%
Top 20 Inflow Previous Week (23 - 27 Oct'23) - IDR bn.
AMMN (47.2) 6.0 57.4 (6.7) 108.6 118.0 1.5% BMRI (89.8) (88.0) 50.2 (174.9) (248.4) (550.9) -0.9%
UNTR (31.2) (2.8) 113.8 16.9 (19.2) 77.5 -1.2% TLKM (74.0) (28.4) (65.2) (87.5) (85.0) (340.1) -5.4%
INDF (13.0) 23.0 7.2 33.7 2.8 53.8 1.1% MEDC (75.8) (30.5) (29.5) 14.3 (18.2) (139.7) -11.3%
CUAN 6.6 7.8 7.3 15.7 10.4 47.8 55.7% ASII (39.7) 40.5 (75.1) (30.2) (24.8) (129.3) 0.4%
BRPT 44.5 (0.3) (4.1) 6.7 (2.1) 44.8 -2.9% GOTO 66.1 (31.0) (31.0) (81.4) (48.9) (126.2) -6.7%
CTRA 2.7 9.9 9.2 8.1 6.8 36.7 2.0% AKRA 0.3 (25.4) (35.2) (44.3) (1.2) (105.9) -1.0%
MDKA 2.4 18.0 (18.4) (27.5) 56.0 30.5 -6.4% BTPS (9.3) (11.1) (9.5) (10.2) (4.9) (45.0) -2.5%
EXCL 21.9 (1.8) 2.6 2.4 4.3 29.5 -3.6% AVIA (5.9) (15.3) (11.7) (5.4) (5.5) (43.8) -3.1%
PRDA 1.7 3.5 2.8 16.3 0.7 25.1 -1.2% PWON (9.5) (0.0) (8.0) (5.4) (9.4) (32.3) -2.0%
TPIA 4.1 2.2 2.5 7.7 7.1 23.6 8.5% PGAS (18.7) (5.8) (4.5) 0.3 1.2 (27.5) -1.8%
UNVR (2.4) 12.4 13.3 8.2 (8.2) 23.2 3.1% CMRY (1.4) (0.9) (0.4) (5.1) (19.6) (27.5) -8.4%
ISAT 4.3 (2.0) 9.1 5.2 5.4 21.9 -0.5% ICBP (7.9) 8.1 (20.0) (6.8) (0.9) (27.5) -0.7%
ELSA (2.2) 0.9 1.6 (0.9) 21.9 21.4 7.7% INCO (2.6) 5.7 (5.8) (4.6) (18.7) (26.1) -10.9%
PGEO 2.0 5.5 (0.8) 7.5 3.2 17.4 0.4% INTP (1.7) 5.6 3.0 (31.6) (1.2) (25.9) -5.9%
ACES (5.6) 17.7 (8.8) 14.2 (3.4) 14.2 6.3% ADRO (33.8) (4.3) 17.5 6.6 (10.6) (24.6) -5.7%
SMRA 5.8 18.5 (10.0) 1.1 (1.7) 13.7 -1.9% AMRT (8.0) 1.0 13.5 (14.0) (14.9) (22.5) 0.7%
SILO 5.9 2.2 1.7 3.7 (0.1) 13.3 3.4% CPIN (16.2) 4.2 5.5 (3.8) (8.8) (19.1) 4.8%
HEAL 0.8 7.5 (3.3) 4.0 4.3 13.2 4.5% MYOR (9.4) (1.5) 0.1 (0.5) (7.4) (18.7) 2.7%
NSSS 0.2 (0.3) 0.2 0.4 10.8 11.3 -9.6% KLBF (4.2) 3.2 (2.9) (4.1) (10.4) (18.4) -0.8%
DOID 6.6 0.7 3.1 0.1 0.7 11.2 -1.0% SMGR (7.9) 3.1 10.2 (11.2) (11.9) (17.8) -3.5%
HRUM 4.7 3.3 1.1 (0.1) 1.8 10.8 -1.4% IPTV (4.0) (3.2) (4.0) (3.1) (2.7) (17.0) 5.9%
TCPI (6.1) 10.7 5.0 0.5 0.5 10.6 -1.1% LPPF (1.3) (6.1) (1.4) (7.5) 0.0 (16.3) -18.2%
AUTO 2.5 1.8 (3.8) 2.3 7.6 10.4 8.4% BBNI 31.3 15.2 (92.9) 62.8 (32.7) (16.3) -2.4%
MNCN 1.2 4.0 0.5 3.1 0.8 9.5 2.8% BUKA (0.7) (2.2) (5.3) (2.9) (3.2) (14.3) -4.9%
MIDI 3.5 8.1 0.2 (3.1) 0.4 9.2 1.2% MAPA 0.3 (0.6) (6.5) 0.4 (7.8) (14.1) 2.0%
PNLF (1.4) 1.5 1.7 1.6 2.6 6.0 3.0% MTEL 2.5 (2.4) 5.3 (18.4) 0.1 (13.0) -0.8%
BRMS 13.0 (1.3) (0.7) (1.1) (4.0) 5.9 -4.0% PTBA (2.6) (1.7) 1.3 (6.4) (3.4) (12.9) -2.2%
BBYB 1.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.9 4.9 -8.9% ANTM (6.9) 0.0 (0.9) (5.3) 1.0 (12.1) -5.5%
- 115 -
Flows and Trends (Monthly) - Sectoral View
- 116 -
Flows and Trends (Weekly) - Sectoral View
- 117 -
Historical Flow Trends All Market
Monthly Flow Trend (IDR bn.) YTD Weekly Flow Trend (IDR bn.)
30,000 5,000
25,000
20,000 -
15,000
(5,000) (2,843)
10,000
(3,113)
5,000
- (10,000)
(5,000)
(15,000)
(10,000)
(15,000)
(20,000)
(20,000)
Wk. 1 Aug-23
Wk. 2 Aug-23
Wk. 3 Aug-23
Wk. 4 Aug-23
Wk. 5 Aug-23
Wk. 1 Jul-23
Wk. 2 Jul-23
Wk. 3 Jul-23
Wk. 4 Jul-23
Wk. 1 Sep-23
Wk. 2 Sep-23
Wk. 3 Sep-23
Wk. 4 Sep-23
Wk. 1 Oct-23
Wk. 2 Oct-23
Wk. 3 Oct-23
Wk. 4 Oct-23
Wk. 4 May-23
Wk. 5 May-23
Wk. 1 Jun-23
Wk. 2 Jun-23
Wk. 3 Jun-23
Wk. 4 Jun-23
(25,000)
Dec-22
Jul-23
Sep-22
Oct-22
Feb-23
Sep-23
Oct-23
May-23
Jun-23
Jan-23
Nov-22
Mar-23
Apr-23
Aug-23
RG Market All Market RG Market All Market
There are gap Foreign outflow between Regular Market and All Market. In 4th week of October2023, foreign
outflow in Regular market amounted to IDR2.8 tn., and in All Market there are selling action totaled IDR3.1 tn.
- 118 -
Proxy to Domestic Economic
BANKING CONSUMER PROPERTY RETAIL
Banks outlook would be mainly In 4Q23, festive events toward the Despite lesser impact due to high The impact from higher inflation
supported by the ability to manage end of year will support the sales of portion of end user currently, we should be manageable for mid-
CoF amid stable policy rate consumer companies. are still expecting a lower upper retailers as this segment
environment as well as managing marketing sales in 4Q23 due to has more resilient purchasing
loans portfolio that match We estimate consumer companies the election sentiment as we power.
respective bank's management risk to maintain its margin in 4Q23, expect a slower construction and
profile. supported by continued low input handover activity during the 2H23 revenue growth will be
cost. However, ASP adjustment will election campaign in 4Q23 supported by end-of-year festive
Additional liquidity of at least be implemented if necessary to event in 4Q23, which one of the
IDR40tn coming from Reserve sustain margins. Earnings from investment strongest quarters (other than
Requirement Ratio (RRR) relaxation portfolio are going to remain Ramadhan).
should provide further support on 2H23 revenue of cigarette sector robust for retail mall and
less pricing war situation within will grow by 2.5% yoy, mostly driven hospitality. Lower margins are expected on
system in 2H23F. by the positive impact of aggressive the back of selective price
price increase in 1H23. For 2H23, Close to election on Feb-24, we adjustment strategy and
The final restructuring process on we estimate lower gross margin are looking at slower industrial normalized rental rate.
WSKT and WIKA would be the short following the expectation to see land sales in 4Q23. This, combined
term overhang matter and expected greater product mix toward value with the current China economic
to be done by Oct-23F. products and challenging volume slowdown, could impact Chinese
growth. FDI decision to Indonesia and will
likely to delay the EV related
sector investment.
- 119 -
The Trade Channel Proxies
COAL METALS PLANTATION
Regional thermal coal prices have For yoy basis compared to last year, El Nino is currently exerting
rebounded from the recent bottoms, led financial performance will record minimal influence on overall
by Newcastle prices (at US$160/t up 28% significant negative growth due to production, and we anticipate that
from Jun23 bottom). While the stronger high base ASP last year. production will remain at higher
rebound in Newcastle price may be partly levels over the coming months.
attributed to the recent jump in crude oil Expect lower cash cost in 2023 as However, there may be a slight
price, the rebound in China and ICI prices coal and oil price are declining since downward trend in production
coincide with seasonal demand amid start beginning of 2023. next year.
of inventory restocking in China and India.
Some of the projects from metals The development of B35 biodiesel
China’s Aug23 import offers hope for re- players begin to effectively has been progressing well, with
acceleration (Aug23: +8% mom/ +37% operational in 2H23, thus we will biodiesel output experiencing a
yoy), with recent industry news indicating see its full effect in 2024. growth rate exceeding 20% this
stronger inventory restocking ahead of year.
the Golden Week holiday. China’s coal We remain sanguine with metals
inventory at port has also moderated back sector due to its aggressive Supply and demand conditions are
to its 5-year average, while India’s coal expansion projects. currently in equilibrium, but a key
inventory fell to 9 days at end of Sep23, concern is the potential impact of
well below its 5-year average of 14 days. a worsening El Nino pattern on
next year's CPO (Crude Palm Oil)
output.
- 120 -
The Infra Related Plays
HOSPITALS TELCO MEDIA TECH
4Q23 growth will be driven by Network experience can further Media sector is at a critical We expect better traction for
seasonality of higher visits in both improve after 3G switch off, and crossroads waiting to determine if groceries, logistics, as well as fintech
hospital & labs, as corporate clients spectrum consolidation into 4G. FTA TV spending can recover. The penetration into more addressable
disburse more budget into medical Can invest in low band 700MHz first 7 months of 2023 were not markets.
needs while individual consumption spectrum ideally if this auction falls encouraging with top FTA TV
peaks. past 4Q23 whereby telcos can advertising clients reduced We expect to see incremental
surprise with better margins vs. spending. EBITDA in 2024 on well managed
1H23 Results of hospitals & lab their guidance (EXCL, TLKM cashburn, OPEX and synergies
shown BPJS patient volume portion primarily). Finding new ways to monetize between platforms (deliveries,
has increased. We believe the trend talent or content is now ecommerce, fintech, offline points).
will most likely be similar on Q4-23. Telcos also have plethora of tower indispensable. Digital content Take rate improvements potentially
sites available in ex-Java and distribution is best use case, and in several verticals incl. fintech,
Healthcare omnibus law: might help homepasses for FMC in Java with Vidio.com has made significant groceries.
boosting doctor and specialist ability to negotiate between 3 strides with EPL season opening as
supply, providing better opportunity options of infra. the key driver. Likely implementation of sales
to expand hospital network as prohibition for goods below
payback period are faster. Telcos have network momentum USD100. This is positive as it will
which they can monetize by likely cut the supply of goods from
catalyzing the monumental fertile abroad to foreign-based platforms
for traffic period Dec. 23 and and reducing their foreign
Lebaran ‘24" economies of scale advantages vs.
local-based platforms.
- 121 -
The Best In Class - Indonesia government bonds are still attractive
Changes in Central Bank
Changes in Yield (bps)
Real Rate (bps)
Lowest 10-yr LCY Real 10yr Central
EM Country CPI yoy (%) Benchmark
rating Yield (%) Yield Bank Rate CDS 5-yr
Rate 2022 Ytd 2022 Ytd
(bps)
Thailand BBB+ 3.30 0.30 3.00 2.50 2.20 59 75 75 125 69

Portugal BBB+ 3.55 3.58 (0.03) 4.50 0.92 315 (2) 250 200 51
Croatia BBB+ 4.21 6.70 (2.49) 4.50 (2.20) 291 58 250 200 87
Indonesia BBB 7.23 2.28 4.95 6.00 3.72 44 39 200 50 101
Philippines BBB 6.97 6.10 0.87 6.50 0.40 233 (14) 350 100 92
Bulgaria BBB 4.50 6.30 (1.80) 3.53 (2.77) 529 (153) 130 223 102
Italy BBB 4.81 5.34 (0.53) 4.50 (0.84) 323 64 250 200 114
Mexico BBB- 10.13 4.45 5.68 11.25 6.80 184 109 500 75 130
Hungary BBB- 7.65 12.20 (4.55) 13.00 0.80 397 (133) 1,060 - 160
Romania BBB- 7.19 8.83 (1.64) 7.00 (1.83) 425 (112) 500 25 169
India BBB- 7.35 5.02 2.33 6.50 1.48 103 2 225 25 70
Average 6.08 5.55 0.53 6.34 0.79 264 (6) 345 111 104
BBB+ 3.68 3.53 0.16 3.83 0.31 222 44 192 175 69
BBB 5.88 5.01 0.87 5.13 0.13 282 (16) 233 143 102
BBB- 8.08 7.63 0.46 9.44 1.81 277 (34) 571 31 132
Min 3.30 0.30 (4.55) 2.50 (2.77) 44 (153) 75 - 51
Max 10.13 12.20 5.68 13.00 6.80 529 109 1,060 223 169
Sources : Bloomberg, Rating agencies, trading economics, BRIDS Processed (as of Oct 27, 2023)
• INDOGB yield are still higher than its peers (BBB investment grade countries)
• INDOGB real yields are the most attractive compared to other BBB countries
• Indonesia CDS are lower than other BBB countries average
- 122 -
Fixed Income: The movement of US Treasury yield
5.5 160 10.00
5 140
4.5 8.00
120
4
100
3.5 6.00
80
3
60 4.00
2.5
2 40
1.5 20 2.00
1 0
0.00
31-Jan-23
30-Apr-23
31-Jul-23
31-Aug-23
28-Feb-23
30-Sep-23
30-Jun-23
31-Dec-22
31-May-23
31-Dec-23
31-Mar-23
31-Oct-23
30-Nov-23
Jul-23
Jul-23
Jul-23
Dec-22
Feb-23
Feb-23
Sep-23
Sep-23
Oct-23
Oct-23
May-23
May-23
Jun-23
Jun-23
Jan-23
Jan-23
Mar-23
Mar-23
Apr-23
Apr-23
Aug-23
Aug-23
UST 10YR (%) CDS 5yr (RHS) UST 10-yr (%) US Inflation YoY (%) FFR (%)
1 yr 2 yr 3 yr 5 yr 7 yr 10 yr CDS 5yr
Rise on UST underpinned by
Date yield yield yield yield yield yield (RHS)
2019 1.59 1.58 1.62 1.69 1.83 1.92 45 1. Fed’s stance higher for longer
2020 0.10 0.13 0.17 0.36 0.65 0.93 50
2021 0.39 0.73 0.97 1.26 1.44 1.52 50 2. Deluge supply of UST issuance to plug the deficit with
2022 4.73 4.41 4.22 3.99 3.96 3.88 82 USD1tn bond issuance in 3Q (vs 2Q’s USD657b)
27-Oct-23 5.39 4.99 4.84 4.76 4.83 4.84 81 3. China and Japan capital outflow
YTD Avg 5.07 4.56 4.26 4.01 3.96 3.88 73
YTD Changes 0.66 0.58 0.62 0.77 0.87 0.96 -1 4. Higher US growth than expected
MTD Changes -0.07 -0.04 0.04 0.16 0.22 0.25 7
5. Oil production cut
Weekly Changes -0.02 -0.08 -0.09 -0.10 -0.10 -0.09 0
Source : Bloomberg
- 123 -
Indonesia Government Bond Yield
9.00
8.5 120
8.00
8.0 100
7.00
80 6.00
7.5
60 5.00
7.0 4.00
40
6.5 3.00
20
2.00
6.0 0
1.00
31-Jan-23
30-Apr-23
31-Jul-23
31-Aug-23
28-Feb-23
30-Sep-23
30-Jun-23
30-Nov-23
31-Dec-22
31-May-23
31-Dec-23
31-Mar-23
31-Oct-23
0.00
Dec-22
Jun-23
Jun-23
Jul-23
Jul-23
Jul-23
Mar-23
Mar-23
Apr-23
Apr-23
Aug-23
Aug-23
Feb-23
Feb-23
Sep-23
Sep-23
Oct-23
Oct-23
May-23
May-23
Jan-23
Jan-23
SUN 10YR (%) Indonesia 5Y CDS (bps), (RHS)
SUN 10-yr (%) Indonesia Inflation YoY (%) BI7DRR (%)
1 yr 3 yr 5 yr 7 yr 10 yr CDS 5yr
Date yield yield yield yield yield (RHS) • SBN yields moved upward mainly supported by
2019 5.30 6.29 6.44 6.95 7.06 62
2020 3.23 4.81 5.21 5.86 5.89 68 global sentiments such as stand of The Fed, UST
2021 3.69 4.56 5.10 6.28 6.38 75 Yield and oil prices
2022 5.64 6.30 6.20 6.72 6.94 104
27-Oct-23 6.50 7.02 7.12 7.25 7.16 101
YTD Avg 6.06 6.14 6.30 6.58 6.61 90
YTD Changes 0.86 0.72 0.92 0.53 0.22 -2
MTD Changes 0.20 0.69 0.55 0.67 0.24 8
Weekly Changes 0.10 0.04 0.10 0.08 -0.08 -2
Source: Bloomberg
- 124 -
Foreign Investor in SBN Market
Net Foreign Buy/Sell as of Oct 26, 2023 (IDR tn) Outstanding Foreign as of Oct 26, 2023 (IDR tn)
60.0 49.7 1200.00 45.0%
40.0%
40.0 1000.00
25.3 35.0%
23.7 17.5
20.0 14.2 800.00 30.0%
9.3 8.3 6.7 8.3
4.2
25.0%
0.0 600.00
20.0%
-4.1
-7.6 -8.9
-20.0 -15.5 -13.6 400.00 15.0%
-20.4 -17.0
-23.3 10.0%
-27.1
-40.0 -32.1 -29.0 -29.3 200.00
5.0%
-48.3 0.00 0.0%
-60.0
Dec-19 Jun-20 Dec-20 Jun-21 Dec-21 Jun-22 Dec-22 Jun-23
Dec-21
May-22
Dec-22
May-23
Mar-22
Oct-22
Mar-23
Oct-23
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Aug-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Aug-23
Feb-22
Sep-22
Feb-23
Sep-23
Jun-22
Nov-22
Jun-23
Foreign Outstanding (IDR tn) Foreign (%) (RHS)
YTD Net Buy/(Sell) - Rp Tn

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct YTD
Investors Type
2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023
Banking (103.5) 75.1 (30.7) 33.0 (14.2) (78.3) (8.7) (69.9)
Bank Indonesia 108.6 (179.1) 17.5 (63.2) (2.6) 45.2 8.8 (80.6)
Foreign Investor 4.2 6.7 17.5 8.3 (8.9) (23.3) (13.6) 47.2
Insurance & Pension Fund 3.1 4.5 11.7 25.2 15.1 23.7 9.8 146.9
Mutual Fund 1.9 1.5 4.6 5.7 1.7 1.5 (2.5) 33.7
Individual 24.0 (3.5) (5.0) 19.5 3.6 21.8 3.5 65.5
Others 2.3 (6.1) 7.3 9.4 13.6 8.5 18.0 67.4
• Foreign investors return to the SBN market driven by attractive SBN yields and Indonesia's strong macro fundamentals
Source: DJPPR
- 125 -
Auction Results SUN – Volume
Total Incoming Bids - IDR tn

Changes to
Series Maturity Date Coupon 8-Aug 22-Aug 5-Sep 19-Sep 3-Oct 17-Oct Avg 2023
prev auction
Target Indikatif - - 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 19.00 19.00 0.00 17.90
SPN 17-Jan-24 1.61 - - 0.43 0.39 0.14 (0.26) 0.83
SPN 17-Oct-24 1.77 0.98 0.02 0.53 0.13 0.34 0.21 3.31
FR0095 15-Aug-28 6.375% 3.60 4.02 2.99 4.10 4.86 3.27 (1.59) 9.56
FRSDG001 15-Oct-30 7.375% 5.72 - - - - - 0.00 1.14
FR0096 15-Feb-33 7.000% 9.58 - - - - - 0.00 12.75
FR0100 15-Feb-34 6.625% 19.53 9.02 11.80 8.32 6.76 (1.56) 11.09
FR0098 15-Jun-38 7.125% 7.36 5.95 2.50 6.05 4.03 3.13 (0.89) 6.43
FR0097 15-Jun-43 7.125% 1.15 1.89 2.28 4.33 3.93 2.17 (1.76) 3.47
FR0089 15-Aug-51 6.875% 1.74 2.23 3.21 1.56 0.77 1.18 0.41 2.49
Total Incoming Bids - IDR tn 32.54 34.60 20.02 28.79 22.42 16.99 - 5.43 42.76
Total Winning Bids - IDR tn

Changes to
Series Maturity Date Coupon 8-Aug 22-Aug 5-Sep 19-Sep 3-Oct 17-Oct Avg 2023
prev auction
SPN 3mo 0.10 - - - - - 0.00 0.30
SPN 12mo - 0.70 - - - - 0.00 1.15
FR0095 15-Aug-28 6.375% 0.45 0.05 0.75 1.80 0.70 2.90 2.20 3.25
FRSDG001 15-Oct-30 7.375% 1.05 - - - - - 0.00 0.31
FR0096 15-Feb-33 7.000% 2.25 - - - - - 0.00 4.11
FR0100 15-Feb-34 6.625% 6.85 5.80 7.85 0.65 3.65 3.00 4.96
FR0098 15-Jun-38 7.125% 4.35 0.25 1.75 2.05 3.75 1.70 (2.05) 2.37
FR0097 15-Jun-43 7.125% 0.90 - 1.85 3.40 3.93 1.30 (2.63) 1.52
FR0089 15-Aug-51 6.875% 0.75 0.02 3.05 0.70 0.27 0.65 0.38 1.13
Total Winning Bids - IDR tn - 9.85 7.87 13.20 15.80 9.30 10.20 0.90 15.62
Sources : DJPPR, BRIDS Processed
- 126 -
Auction Results SBSN – Volume
Total Incoming Bids - IDR tn

Changes to
Series Maturity Date 1-Aug 15-Aug 29-Aug 12-Sep 26-Sep 10-Oct 24-Oct Avg 2023
prev auction
Target Indikatif - 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 9.00 9.00 0.00 9.20
SPNS 6mo 2.06 3.10 2.05 2.00 2.52 2.43 2.25 (0.18) 3.31
PBS036 15-Aug-25 8.74 11.61 13.41 17.28 14.79 4.86 0.84 (4.02) 10.50
PBS003 15-Jan-27 2.61 1.63 1.71 2.26 1.47 0.81 0.78 (0.03) 3.18
PBSG001 15-Sep-29 4.19 - 2.23 - 1.93 - 1.84 1.84 2.38
PBS037 15-Mar-36 3.49 1.79 1.36 3.00 4.85 1.43 1.95 0.52 5.19
PBS034 15-Jun-39 - 1.46 - 2.28 - 0.53 - (0.53) 1.46
PBS033 15-Jun-47 0.96 0.59 0.53 4.51 2.21 0.69 0.60 (0.09) 2.37
Total Bids - IDR tn 22.05 20.18 21.29 31.33 27.78 10.75 8.25 -2.51 28.39
Total Winning Bids - IDR tn

Changes to
Series Maturity Date 1-Aug 15-Aug 29-Aug 12-Sep 26-Sep 10-Oct 24-Oct Avg 2023
prev auction
SPNS 6mo - 1.80 0.10 - - 0.35 0.50 0.15 0.66
PBS036 15-Aug-25 1.75 3.50 4.30 0.20 7.83 4.35 0.02 (4.33) 3.26
PBS003 15-Jan-27 0.90 0.10 0.06 - - 0.20 - (0.20) 1.19
PBSG001 15-Sep-29 1.95 - 0.80 - - - - 0.00 0.67
PBS037 15-Mar-36 1.15 0.20 0.30 2.60 0.15 0.10 1.51 1.41 1.35
PBS034 15-Jun-39 - 0.30 - 2.00 - - - 0.00 0.54
PBS033 15-Jun-47 0.25 0.10 0.44 4.20 0.02 - - 0.00 1.12
Total Bids - IDR tn 6.00 6.00 6.00 9.00 8.00 5.00 2.03 -2.97 8.79
Sources : DJPPR, BRIDS Processed
- 127 -
Auction Results SUN
Higher Proportion for Longer Tenors
Incoming Bid Proportion by Tenor Winning Bid Proportion by Tenor
14.50% 19.14% 15.95% 18.58%

35.16% 16.33% 18.00% 20.38% 15.89%
45.88% 42.11%
59.37% 41.50%
36.46% 51.55% 49.42%
38.80% 42.82% 43.21% 76.85% 40.03%
83.49% 74.04%
44.75% 37.88% 81.53%
57.94% 91.21%
39.71% 21.00%
31.85% 33.92%
20.69% 29.42%
22.79%
49.03% 0.00%
42.06% 41.23% 38.20% 43.63% 37.25% 41.75%
0.00% 37.50%
25.14% 22.27% 23.96%
17.84% 16.51% 23.15% 26.17% 27.76% 21.15% 18.62%
18.47%
7.34% 8.79%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct
Incoming Bid <5yr Incoming Bid 5-10yr Incoming Bid >10yr Winning Bid <5yr Winning Bid 5-10yr Winning Bid >10yr
Source : DJPRR, BRI Danareksa
- 128 -
128
Auction Results SBSN
Higher Proportion for Longer Tenors
Incoming Bid Proportion by Tenor Winning Bid Proportion by Tenor
120.00%
16.03% 100.00% 22.90%

19.50% 21.42%22.33% 15.22%
34.33% 31.23% 28.52%27.38% 18.21% 22.91% 20.63%
3.06% 0.00% 39.62% 10.10%
9.11% 48.12% 80.00% 44.62%
3.27% 9.67% 14.11% 2.27%45.56%6.56% 15.28% 0.00%
4.24% 62.14% 52.76%
5.44% 20.94% 60.00% 63.33%
4.81% 0.00%
11.87%
71.40% 75.52%77.67% 73.87%68.21% 40.00% 74.82% 77.10%
62.95% 67.68% 72.81% 6.67%69.50%
61.43% 54.94% 17.14%
47.82% 50.58% 54.44% 47.24%
40.01% 20.00%
30.00%
20.71%
0.00%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Jul Aug Sep Oct Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Jul Aug Sep Oct
Incoming Bid <5yr Incoming Bid 5-10yr Incoming Bid >10yr Winning Bid <5yr Winning Bid 5-10yr Winning Bid >10yr
- 129 -
Auction Yield SUN Jul - Sep 2023
Yield (%)
Maturity Difference from
Series Coupon 8-Aug-23 22-Aug-23 5-Sep-23 19-Sep-23 3-Oct-23 17-Oct-23
Date latest auction
Range incoming yield 4.50 6.25 5.10 6.22 5.90 6.30 6.00 6.95 0.10 0.65
SPN 3mo
avg / highest winning yield 4.53 4.55 - - - -
Range incoming yield 5.24 5.50 5.36 5.75 5.75 5.75 6.30 6.40 6.25 6.40 6.35 6.35 0.10 - 0.05
SPN 12mo
avg / highest winning yield - - 5.47 5.59 - - - - - -
Range incoming yield 6.01 6.13 6.24 6.60 6.07 6.23 6.34 6.54 6.60 6.80 6.60 6.80 - -
FR0095 15-Aug-28 6.375%
avg / highest winning yield 6.04 6.05 6.24 6.24 6.10 6.10 6.38 6.40 6.67 6.73 6.68 6.72 0.01 - 0.01
Range incoming yield 6.15 6.54 - -
FRSDG001 15-Oct-30 7.375%
avg / highest winning yield 6.23 6.25 - -
Range incoming yield 6.33 6.45 - -
FR0096 15-Feb-33 7.000%
avg / highest winning yield 6.34 6.35 - -
Range incoming yield 6.55 6.90 6.35 6.51 6.65 6.91 6.87 7.22 6.75 7.05 - 0.12 - 0.17
FR0100 15-Feb-34 6.625%
avg / highest winning yield 6.69 6.72 6.41 6.45 6.73 6.75 6.98 7.01 6.83 6.85 - 0.15 - 0.16
Range incoming yield 6.45 6.60 6.75 7.00 6.45 7.00 6.86 7.10 7.00 7.30 7.01 7.20 0.01 - 0.10
FR0098 15-Jun-38 7.125%
avg / highest winning yield 6.48 6.49 6.81 6.83 6.48 6.50 6.92 6.93 7.06 7.21 7.07 7.10 0.01 - 0.11
Range incoming yield 6.53 6.70 6.85 7.00 6.59 6.70 6.90 7.15 7.00 7.26 6.95 7.20 - 0.05 - 0.06
FR0097 15-Jun-43 7.125%
avg / highest winning yield 6.55 6.61 6.62 6.66 6.94 7.00 7.07 7.26 7.11 7.14 0.04 - 0.12
Range incoming yield 6.69 7.00 6.79 7.05 6.70 6.89 6.93 7.10 6.98 7.30 6.97 7.20 - 0.01 - 0.10
FR0089 15-Aug-51 6.875%
avg / highest winning yield 6.71 6.72 6.81 6.85 6.71 6.77 7.00 7.03 7.07 7.16 7.05 7.12 - 0.02 - 0.04
- 130 -
Auction Yield SBSN Aug - Oct 2023
Yield (%)
Maturity Difference
Series Coupon 1-Aug-23 15-Aug-23 29-Aug-23 12-Sep-23 26-Sep-23 10-Oct-23 24-Oct-23
Date from latest
Range incoming yield 4.85 4.85 4.85 4.91 4.87 4.87 - - 6.00 6.30 5.80 6.00 6.00 6.05 0.20 0.05
SPNS 6mo -
avg winning yield - - 4.88 4.87 - - - - - 5.80 - 6.00 0.20 -
Range incoming yield 5.85 6.04 5.85 6.20 6.17 6.50 6.20 6.50 6.21 6.65 6.20 6.60 6.70 7.15 0.50 0.55
PBS036 15-Aug-25 5.375%
avg winning yield 5.93 - 6.01 6.18 - 6.21 - 6.24 - 6.39 - 6.71 0.33 -
PBS003 15-Jan-27 6.000%
avg winning yield 5.80 - 5.86 6.07 - - - - - 6.51 - - - 6.51 -
Range incoming yield 5.90 6.26 - - 6.12 6.38 6.25 6.65 - - 7.00 7.20 7.00 7.20
PBSG001 15-Sep-29 6.625%
avg winning yield 6.03 - - - 6.19 - - - - - - - - - -
PBS037 15-Mar-36 6.875%
avg winning yield 6.43 - 6.48 - 6.60 - 6.63 - 6.73 - 6.98 - 7.21 0.23 -
Range incoming yield - - 6.50 6.70 - - 6.65 6.71 - - 7.03 7.20 - 7.03 - 7.20
PBS034 15-Jun-39 6.500%
avg winning yield - - 6.56 - - - 6.69 - - - - - - -
PBS033 15-Jun-47 6.750%
avg winning yield 6.66 - 6.65 - 6.74 - 6.75 - 6.86 - - - - - -
- 131 -
Fixed Income Market Outlook
Indicator 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F
Real GDP Growth YoY (%) 4.97 -2.19 3.70 5.31 5.06 5.0 – 5.2
Inflation YoY (%) 2.7 1.59 1.75 5.51 2.9 – 3.2 2.5 - 3.5
7Days Repo Rate (%) 5 3.75 3.5 5.50 6.00 5.25 – 5.50
USDIDR (avg) 14,141 14,050 14,296 14,848 15,400 – 15,930 15,000 – 15,600
US Treasury (%) 1.92 0.93 1.52 3.88 4.30 – 5.30 3.50 – 4.50
CDS 5 yrs (bps) 62 68 75 104 60 – 120 60 – 100
IDR SUN 10Y (%) [BTMM
ID] 7.06 5.89 6.37 6.94 6.75 - 7.30 6.15 – 6.70
Subject to further updates

Sources : BRIDS Economic Research, Debt Research (20 Oct)
It is estimated that global economic growth in 2023 will be challenging. However, we expect Indonesia's economic growth to remain solid
The increase in SBN yields was caused by the uncertainty and slowdown in the global economy which exceeded expectations and had an impact on
Indonesia, resulting in greater domestic uncertainty and putting pressure on Indonesia's economic fundamentals. As a result, investors will take a
'wait and see' attitude towards economic developments, with the possibility of an SBN capital outflow.
Factors pushing SBN yields down: if Indonesia proves to be resilient in the face of uncertainty and a global economic slowdown. Supported by sound
economic fundamentals, attractive SBN yields, and ample liquidity, this will encourage capital inflows into SBN.
- 132 -
Corporate Bond Fair Spread by Rating
Treasury & Money Market
IBPA Fair Spread as of 27 Oct 23 : #####

1Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 6Y 7Y 8Y 9Y 10Y
AAA 43 47 47 49 54 61 68 74 79 83
AA+* 60 68 71 77 86 95 105 112 119 123
AA 83 96 103 112 124 136 147 156 163 168
AA-* 116 134 145 158 173 187 199 208 215 220
A+* 160 182 197 214 231 247 260 269 276 280
A 211 236 255 275 295 313 327 337 344 349
A-* 267 294 314 338 361 382 399 411 420 427
BBB+* 326 353 375 401 428 453 473 490 502 510
BBB 387 413 436 465 495 524 550 570 585 597
*interpolated
Source: Bloomberg (as of 9:22 at October 30, 2023), IBPA
- 133 -
Corp Bonds - Historical Issuance and Maturity
Historical Issuance Bonds by Sector Historical Maturity Bonds by Sector
24.3% 24.1%
40.8% 34.9% 38.4% 32.3% 30.4%
38.0%
4.5% 3.5%
5.1% 5.2%
6.3% 3.5% 6.8% 3.1% 2.6%
0.6%
3.4%
1.6% 4.3% 4.4% 12.1% 3.7% 1.5%
1.2% 13.4%
7.8% 6.8% 8.9% 12.7% 5.8%
7.8% 13.5% 15.8%
17.1% 21.2% 17.6% 14.3%
13.5%
46.6%
38.7% 34.2% 27.7%
34.0% 37.5% 38.6%
30.0%
2020 2021 2022 Sep-23
Financial Institution Pulp & Paper 2023 2024 2025 2026
Bank Telecommunication Financial Institution Bank Building Construction

Non Building Construction Others Telecommunication Energy Others
Bonds Issuance (IDR bn) Bonds Maturity (IDR bn)
2020 2021 2022 Sep-23 2023 2024 2025 2026

Financial Institution 33,574 35,521 42,234 41,077 Financial Institution 39,346 45,394 29,598 30,902
Pulp & Paper 6,747 14,004 26,060 11,201 Bank 24,603 21,340 13,375 11,488
Bank 6,758 7,100 13,600 6,000 Pulp & Paper 13,976 6,999 15,602 10,750
Telecommunication 1,372 4,432 6,721 4,489 Non Building Construction 5,970 4,503 1,221 500
Non Building Construction 2,950 6,540 5,400 3,986 Building Construction 4,103 3,809 1,486 2,102
Others 35,421 36,246 58,588 21,407 Others 27,875 39,112 37,540 24,348
Total 86,821 103,842 152,602 88,160 Total 115,873 121,157 98,821 80,090
Source: KSEI processed data
- 134 -
Bonds Outstanding and Ownership
Outstanding bonds by Sector Ownership Proportion by Sector Company
100% 120.0%
27.8% 30.6% 33.8% 33.5% 100.0%
80% 11.2% 8.3% 8.5% 9.2%
4.2% 4.4% 5.7% 6.5%
5.7% 6.1% 80.0% 14.8%
9.0% 5.2% 5.9% 15.1% 14.3% 14.5%
60% 2.1% 9.0% 7.5% 7.2%
4.9% 9.2% 10.3% 60.0% 21.0% 22.9% 20.7% 20.6%
40% 24.5%
20.9% 17.6% 14.6% 40.0% 22.8% 23.0% 23.6% 24.2%
20%
30.9% 28.6% 26.7% 28.6% 20.0%
25.7% 26.6% 27.1% 25.0%
0% 0.0%
2020 2021 2022 Sep-23 2020 2021 2022 Sep-23
Financial Institution Bank Pulp & Paper Mutual Fund Insurance Financial Institution
Energy Telecommunication Others Pension Fund Individual Others
Bonds outstanding (IDR bn) Ownership Proportion by Sector Company (IDR bn)
2020 2021 2022 Sep-23 2020 2021 2022 Sep-23

Financial Institution 135,423 122,644 118,204 126,507 Mutual Fund 112,661 114,237 120,058 110,680
Bank 107,221 89,483 77,854 64,518 Insurance 99,708 98,843 104,777 107,361
Pulp & Paper 9,247 20,825 40,804 45,401 Financial Institution 92,077 98,062 91,669 91,115
Energy 39,570 38,761 33,375 32,059 Pension Fund 65,991 63,474 63,571 64,049
Telecommunication 24,840 26,099 22,984 26,053 Individual 18,562 18,938 25,462 28,884
Others 121,536 131,184 149,921 148,350 Others 48,836 35,441 37,604 40,798
Total 437,836 428,995 443,142 442,887 Total 437,836 428,995 443,142 442,887
Source: KSEI processed data
- 135 -
Corporate Bond Market Profile
IDR Corporate Bonds Outstanding IDR Corporate Bonds Ownership

Insurance
Building Chemicals Toll Road, Foreign Individual
Energy 24.24%
Construction 4.4% Airport, Harbor 2.11% 6.52%
7.2% 3.4% And Allied
Telco Products Non Building
1.6% Construction
8% 1.7% Corporate
Financial
Food And Institution 3.62%
Beverages 20.57%
0.6%
Foundation
Property And 1.42%
Financial
Real Estate
Institution Others 0.7% Other
28.6% 31.3% 1.82%
Pension Fund Securities
Bank Mutual Fund
14.46% 0.24%
14.6% 24.99%
Sources: KSEI Sources: KSEI
As of Sep 30, 2023 : IDR442,88 tn As of Sep 30, 2023 : IDR442,88 tn
Primary Market Investors (as of Sep 23) Primary Market Investors (FY2022)
>10 yr 5 Mutual Funds Pension Funds

Mutual Funds Pension Funds
Financial Institutions Insurances
7-10 yr Financial Institutions Insurances 4 Foreign Other
5-7yr Foreign Other
3
3-5yr
1-3yr 2
IDR tn
<1yr 1
IDR trillion
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
- 136
- 136- -
Historical Issuance and maturity Bonds
Historical Issuance Bonds by Rating Historical Maturity Bonds by Rating
100% 1.8% 1.4% 2.3% 100% 5.0% 2.9% 3.7% 1.3%

2.6%
3.2% 3.8% 1.2% 5.0% 3.9%
6.3% 7.1% 90% 4.4%
90% 11.0% 7.7% 13.2% 13.9%
9.1% 15.9% 17.4% 10.9%
80% 80%
16.4% 23.1% 16.3% 19.1% 19.4%
70% 70% 22.8%
22.2% 1.3%
60% 10.6% 25.4% 5.5% 60% 6.6% 6.5% 3.3%
0.6%
3.6% 5.9% 9.3% 50% 11.3% 12.5% 5.4% 12.2%
50% 3.4% 8.5% 2.9%
5.5% 9.6% 5.1% 5.4%
40% 40% 4.1%
12.1% 7.4%
30% 30%
50.2% 44.9% 44.5%
20% 42.4% 20% 40.2% 38.3%
28.8% 32.2%
10% 10%
0% 0%
2020 2021 2022 Sep-23 2023 2024 2025 2026
AAA AA+ AA AA- A+ A A- BBB Group AAA AA+ AA AA- A+ A A- BBB Group
Bonds Issuance (IDR bn) Bonds Maturity (IDR bn)

2020 2021 2022 Sep-23 2023 2024 2025 2026
AAA 43,583 29,951 49,158 37,414 AAA 46,535 54,442 37,873 35,605
AA+ 3,108 12,553 11,308 4,486 AA+ 6,240 15,138 4,059 2,296
AA 500 5,706 14,692 8,222 AA 13,054 7,860 8,371 9,753
AA- 9,226 3,500 9,000 4,808 AA- 7,672 1,545 5,383 2,674
A+ 14,219 26,345 33,918 20,383 A+ 18,866 23,170 22,531 15,561
A 7,881 16,514 26,553 9,738 A 12,669 9,389 13,081 11,125
A- 5,485 7,358 5,776 1,075 A- 5,074 6,117 3,836 2,064
BBB+ 2,572 776 1,153 1,935 BBB+ 1,495 1,660 2,121 662
BBB 248 800 308 100 BBB 3,747 1,421 1,303 350
BBB- 0 341 736 0 BBB- 523 414 264 0
Total 86,821 103,842 152,602 88,160 Total 115,873 121,157 98,821 80,090
Source: IDX, KSEI processed data
- 137 -
Historical Issuance Bonds
Historical Issuance Bonds by Tenor Bonds Issuance (IDR bn)
120.0%
2020 2021 2022 Sep-23
100.0% 370D 24,334 34,475 42,210 29,229
2 - 3yr 31,051 38,427 65,201 40,169
80.0%
5yr 17,300 21,655 32,319 16,931
60.0% 7yr 7,010 8,623 10,589 1,047
10yr 2,895 663 2,284 785
40.0%
15 yr 2,365 0 0 0
20.0% 20 yr 1,866 0 0 0
Total 86,821 103,842 152,602 88,160
0.0%
2020 2021 2022 Sep-23
20 yr 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
15 yr 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
10yr 3.3% 0.6% 1.5% 0.9%
7yr 8.1% 8.3% 6.9% 1.2%
5yr 19.9% 20.9% 21.2% 19.2%
2 - 3yr 35.8% 37.0% 42.7% 45.6%
370D 28.0% 33.2% 27.7% 33.2%
370D 2 - 3yr 5yr 7yr 10yr 15 yr 20 yr
Source: IDX, KSEI processed data
- 138 -
Maturity Profile Corporate Bond 2023
Total Financial Institution Bank Pulp & Paper Telecommunication Non Building Construction Others
Month Maturing Issued Maturing Issued Maturing Issued Maturing Issued Maturing Issued Maturing Maturing Issued
Issued Bonds
Bonds Bonds Bonds Bonds Bonds Bonds Bonds Bonds Bonds Bonds Bonds Bonds Bonds
2023-01 673 3,398 250 1,100 250 0 0 1,748 0 0 0 0 173 550
2023-02 12,691 12,736 2,425 7,000 5,737 0 200 0 0 0 0 2,486 4,330 3,250
2023-03 14,541 10,725 3,972 2,784 3,633 500 1,410 0 0 2,907 2,567 0 2,959 4,535
2023-04 8,852 7,024 6,031 5,564 0 0 1,319 0 0 0 0 0 1,503 1,460
2023-05 7,516 4,000 6,321 4,000 55 0 519 0 98 0 0 0 522 0
2023-06 4,147 7,344 185 5,200 1,600 0 883 0 554 1,094 0 0 925 1,050
2023-07 12,728 27,392 3,882 10,772 3,000 5,500 898 6,022 0 489 0 1,500 4,948 3,109
2023-08 12,525 12,552 6,553 3,068 727 0 496 3,431 1,122 0 1,479 0 2,149 6,053
2023-09 18,704 2,989 3,157 1,589 6,535 0 880 0 199 0 469 0 7,465 1,400
2023-10 7,245 10,683 1,567 4,394 75 0 3,386 4,224 613 425 1,000 0 604 1,640
2023-11 5,734 0 1,581 0 1,533 0 933 0 103 0 0 0 1,585 0
2023-12 10,516 0 3,423 0 1,459 0 3,053 0 200 0 455 0 1,926 0
Total 2023 115,873 98,843 39,346 45,471 24,603 6,000 13,976 15,426 2,889 4,914 5,970 3,986 29,089 23,047
1Q23 27,905 26,860 6,647 10,884 9,620 500 1,610 1,748 0 2,907 2,567 2,486 7,461 8,335
2Q23 20,515 18,368 12,537 14,764 1,655 0 2,721 0 652 1,094 0 0 2,950 2,510
3Q23 43,958 42,933 13,591 15,430 10,262 5,500 2,274 9,453 1,321 489 1,948 1,500 14,563 10,562
4Q23 23,496 10,683 6,571 4,394 3,067 0 7,372 4,224 916 425 1,455 0 4,115 1,640
IDR Billion As of : 23 Oct 23
- 139 -
Maturity Profile Corporate Bond 2024
Total Financial Institution Bank Pulp & Paper Telecommunication Non Building Others
Month Maturing Issued Maturing Issued Maturing Issued Maturing Issued Maturing Issued Maturing Issued Maturing Issued
Bonds Bonds Bonds Bonds Bonds Bonds Bonds Bonds Bonds Bonds Bonds Bonds Bonds Bonds
2024-01 1,218 0 560 0 0 0 0 0 415 0 0 0 243 0
2024-02 11,346 0 4,149 0 1,405 0 107 0 178 0 3,503 0 2,005 0
2024-03 13,621 0 1,544 0 2,400 0 1,895 0 2,975 0 0 0 4,807 0
2024-04 11,327 0 9,403 0 800 0 0 0 260 0 0 0 864 0
2024-05 7,735 0 2,086 0 0 0 0 0 907 0 0 0 4,742 0
2024-06 12,086 0 5,674 0 4,220 0 0 0 798 0 0 0 1,395 0
2024-07 18,326 0 7,044 0 1,521 0 1,917 0 1,124 0 1,000 0 5,720 0
2024-08 12,145 0 4,533 0 2,946 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4,666 0
2024-09 8,198 0 2,854 0 1,100 0 1,899 0 0 0 0 0 2,344 0
2024-10 8,068 0 3,322 0 1,608 0 386 0 425 0 0 0 2,327 0
2024-11 7,990 0 2,275 0 2,674 0 0 0 34 0 0 0 3,007 0
2024-12 11,782 0 3,564 0 2,667 0 1,181 0 1,953 0 0 0 2,417 0
Total 2024 123,841 0 47,008 0 21,340 0 7,384 0 9,069 0 4,503 0 34,537 0
1Q24 26,185 0 6,253 0 3,805 0 2,002 0 3,568 0 3,503 0 7,054 0
2Q24 31,148 0 17,163 0 5,020 0 0 0 1,965 0 0 0 7,000 0
3Q24 38,669 0 14,431 0 5,567 0 3,816 0 1,124 0 1,000 0 12,731 0
4Q24 27,840 0 9,161 0 6,949 0 1,567 0 2,412 0 0 0 7,751 0
- 140 -
Maturity Profile Corporate Bond by Rating 2023
Total AAA AA A BBB

Month Maturing Issued Maturing Issued Maturing Issued Maturing Issued Maturing Issued
Bonds Bonds Bonds Bonds Bonds Bonds Bonds Bonds Bonds Bonds
2023-01 673 3,398 0 0 0 0 250 2,848 423 550
2023-02 12,691 12,736 4,248 5,000 3,900 5,736 1,798 2,000 2,745 0
2023-03 14,541 10,725 4,905 2,907 4,667 1,500 4,969 5,534 0 785
2023-04 8,852 7,024 2,994 1,242 1,078 4,322 4,780 1,460 0 0
2023-05 7,516 4,000 4,230 4,000 2,506 0 574 0 206 0
2023-06 4,147 7,344 635 4,694 1,475 1,100 1,483 1,250 554 300
2023-07 12,728 27,392 6,511 15,772 480 3,000 5,294 8,620 443 0
2023-08 12,525 12,552 5,096 2,668 4,877 400 2,417 9,484 136 0
2023-09 18,704 2,989 9,489 0 3,630 0 4,601 2,989 985 0
2023-10 7,245 11,899 2,246 0 1,000 0 3,999 11,899 0 0
2023-11 5,734 0 2,200 0 1,703 0 1,580 0 251 0
2023-12 10,516 0 4,901 0 830 0 4,762 0 23 0
Total 2023 115,873 100,059 47,454 36,282 26,146 16,058 36,508 46,084 5,764 1,635
1Q23 27,905 26,860 9,153 7,907 8,567 7,236 7,017 10,382 3,168 1,335
2Q23 20,515 18,368 7,859 9,936 5,059 5,422 6,838 2,710 760 300
3Q23 43,958 42,933 21,096 18,440 8,987 3,400 12,312 21,092 1,563 0
4Q23 23,496 11,899 9,347 0 3,533 0 10,342 11,899 274 0
- 141 -
Maturity Profile Corporate Bond by Rating 2024
Total AAA AA A BBB

Month Maturing Issued Maturing Issued Maturing Issued Maturing Issued Maturing Issued
Bonds Bonds Bonds Bonds Bonds Bonds Bonds Bonds Bonds Bonds
2024-01 1,218 0 775 0 200 0 0 0 243 0
2024-02 11,346 0 4,109 0 4,203 0 3,035 0 0 0
2024-03 13,621 0 4,360 0 2,750 0 6,511 0 0 0
2024-04 11,327 0 4,870 0 4,725 0 1,732 0 0 0
2024-05 7,735 0 610 0 4,279 0 1,475 0 1,371 0
2024-06 12,086 0 8,422 0 1,970 0 1,695 0 0 0
2024-07 18,326 0 8,766 0 2,746 0 6,347 0 466 0
2024-08 12,145 0 7,540 0 183 0 4,422 0 0 0
2024-09 8,198 0 3,936 0 625 0 3,273 0 365 0
2024-10 8,268 0 3,010 0 108 0 5,150 0 0 0
2024-11 7,990 0 5,367 0 300 0 2,323 0 0 0
2024-12 11,782 0 5,631 0 2,703 0 3,448 0 0 0
Total 2024 124,041 0 57,395 0 24,791 0 39,411 0 2,444 0
1Q24 26,185 0 9,244 0 7,153 0 9,545 0 243 0
2Q24 31,148 0 13,901 0 10,974 0 4,902 0 1,371 0
3Q24 38,669 0 20,242 0 3,554 0 14,042 0 831 0
4Q24 28,040 0 14,008 0 3,111 0 10,922 0 0 0
- 142 -
On Going / Latest Corporate Bond Issuances
Source: KSEI, processed
- 143 -
On Going / Latest Corporate Bond Issuances
Target Size Issued Size Indicative Coupon/Final Coupon

Bonds Rating Bookbuilding Period
(IDR Bn) (IDR Bn) 370D 3yr 5yr 7yr
Indicative Yield 6.25 6.50 10.25 10.50 10.75 11.00
Benchmark as of Start BB 6.36 6.30 6.29
Indicative Spread -11 14 395 420 446 471
LPPI idA 11-Sep-23 19-Sep-23 1,800 1,800
Final Coupon 6.50 10.50 11.00
Benchmark as of End BB 6.38 6.34 6.41
Final Spread 12 416 459
OPPM (Bond, Sukuk, 3,000 / 500 / 3,000 / 500 / Indicative Spread -9 16 391 416 441 466
idA+ / idA+(sy) 15-Sep-23 21-Sep-23
Green Bond) 1,500 1,500 Final Coupon 6.50 10.50 11.00
Final Spread 12 416 459
Indicative Spread 81 181 112 212 146 246
AGII (Bond & Sukuk) A(idn) 18-Sep-23 22-Sep-23 70 / 70
Final Coupon 7.40 7.90 Cancel
Benchmark as of End BB 6.31 6.41 -
Final Spread 109 149 -
Indicative Spread -78 2 -44 36 -31 59
ASDF AAA(idn) 21-Sep-23 4-Oct-23 1,750 1,000
Final Coupon 6.05 6.40 6.45
Final Spread -25 1 -44
Indicative Spread -71 9 -49 31 -39 51
ADMF (Bond & Sukuk) idAAA 26-Sep-23 11-Oct-23 1,200 / 300 1,250 / 300
Final Coupon 6.15 6.50 6.55
Final Spread -13 -13 -11
Indicative Yield 5.60 6.40 6.00 6.80
Benchmark as of Start BB 6.34 6.66
Indicative Spread -74 6 -66 15
FIFA idAAA 9-Oct-23 24-Oct-23 1,000
Final Coupon
Benchmark as of End BB
Final Spread
Indicative Spread -10 40 326 351 369 394
INKP (Bond & Sukuk) idA+ / idA+(sy) 19-Oct-23 1-Nov-23 3,000 / 1,090
Final Coupon
Benchmark as of End BB
Final Spread
- 144 -
PUB as of Sep 2023
Sum of Target PUB (IDR bn) Sum of Total Issued (IDR bn) Sum of Remaining Size (IDR bn)
Bank 29,000 8,350 20,650
Cement 3,000 880 2,120
Chemicals 11,000 5,250 5,750
Construction 6,000 1,690 4,310
Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas Production 5,000 1,000 4,000
Financial Institution 135,500 46,127 89,373
Investment Company 3,000 1,700 1,300
Metal And Allied Products 1,000 575 425
Metal And Mineral Mining 15,000 8,160 6,840
Non Building Construction 20,000 1,500 18,500
Pharmaceuticals 1,200 800 400
Plantation 6,000 1,500 4,500
Property And Real Estate 6,400 2,648 3,752
Pulp & Paper 38,000 17,901 20,099
Securities Company 1,100 409 691
Telecommunication 30,000 6,635 23,365
Transportation 5,000 2,550 2,450
Grand Total 316,200 107,675 208,525
- 145 -
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Macro Strategy - Liquidity Impetus - 30 Oct 2023

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Macro Strategy - Liquidity Impetus - 30 Oct 2023

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PT BRI Danareksa Sekuritas

Key Economic Events for The Week

Source: Trading Economics, The Fed, Bank Indonesia, BRIDS

• Money Supply – September 2023 67.7 0.32% of GDP

• Euro Area Inflation – October 2023 (Tuesday)

Source: Bloomberg, Trading Economics, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas

Inflation Growth Volatility

Source: IMF, World Bank, OECD

Interest Rate trend

Total 147 countries

• Indonesia followed Argentina footstep in taking hike stance in October 2023.

Rate Movement (bps) Rate Movement (percentage of 10 countries)

Hike Cut Stay

Source: Trading Economics, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas

September Global Manufacturing PMI October (Flash) Global Manufacturing PMI

Improving 5 Expansionary Improving 5 Expansionar

Singapore Germany America

• In September, Manufacturing in 13 countries were still at

Source : BRIDS, Bloomberg

Indonesia GDP Forecast Indonesia Inflation Forecast Global GDP Forecast

2023 2024 2023 2024 2023 2024

WB OECD IMF ADB WB OECD IMF ADB WB OECD IMF

Source: Bank Indoensia

Key Risks to the Growth

Monetary and Fiscal Advantage

Source: IMF, World Bank

Period of Volatility in INDOGB & UST yield

Source: Bank Indonesia, Bloomberg, BRI Danareksa

 During the three high volatility

INDOGB vs Indonesia Interest Rate INDOGB vs USDIDR

INDOGB vs Current Account INDOGB Changes vs Current account

Source: Ministry of Finance,

IDR Breakeven Based on YTM Foreign Ownership

Foreign Outstanding (IDR tn) Foreign (%) (RHS)

Source: Finance Ministry, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas

Obeserving, not Weaker Demand No Intention To Raise Risk of Iran

Source: Investing, Bloomberg, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas estimates

GDP Growth 2023

2021 2022 2023

Source: BPS, BRIDS Estimates

Source: BPS, BRIDS Estimates

2024 State Budget Posture

State Revenues: State Expeditures: Economic

 Tax Revenue: Rp2,307.9 T  Central Government: Rp2,446.5 T Short-term Strategy

Source: DPR RI, Ministry of Finance,

State Revenue (Rp tn) State Expenditure (Rp tn)

Budget Deficit (Rp tn) Budget Deficit (% to GDP)

Infrastructure Social Protection

Source: Ministry of Finance,

Energy Subsidy Regional Transfer and Village Funds

400.00 4.93% 5.00%

250.00 5.15% 5.30% 350.00

5.01% 5.04% 250.00

Source: Ministry of Finance,

Government revenues 1960.6 1647.8 2011.3 2635.8 2637.2 2781.3

Budget Defici t -348.7 -947.7 -775.1 -460.4 -486.4 -522.8

Gross Bond Supply 901.6 1528.4 1301.7 1053.6 835.1 1249.0

Domestic 753.0 1369.2 1143.6 941.2 745.5 1115.0

Total 803.4 1130.8 1086.7 829.6 835.1 1249.0

Realisation assumption Remaini ng 2023

Source: BPS, BRIDS Estimates

Ethanol price (USD/litre) 1.33

Inflation impact 0.58%