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The long-term variability of hydrological characteristics of Lake Baikal and its

tributaries under climate change and anthropogenic impact

Chapter · November 2024

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In: Handbook of Hydrosystem Restoration (Eds. S. Eslamian and F. Eslamian).
Elsevier, 2024. ISBN: 9780443298028

The long-term variability of hydrological characteristics of Lake Baikal and

its tributaries under climate change and anthropogenic impact

Lev Eppelbaum1,2, Ekaterina Sutyrina3 and Fedor Andreyev3

1
Dept. of Geophysics, Faculty of Exact Sciences, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
2
Azerbaijan State Oil and Industry University, Baku, Azerbaijan
3
Department of Hydrology and Environmental Management, Irkutsk State University, Irkutsk, Russia

Abstract

The study, of utmost importance, aims to identify and quantify current trends in the variability
of environmentally significant hydrological characteristics of Lake Baikal and its tributaries.
The findings, derived from a comprehensive analysis of data from the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on teleconnection indices of atmospheric circulation
and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-Department of Energy (DOE)
Reanalysis 2, provide a quantitative assessment of current trends in the variability of climate
parameters and indicators of large-scale atmospheric circulation within the water area and
catchment of Lake Baikal. The study also assesses current trends in the variability of runoff
parameters of several lake tributaries. The implications of these findings are significant, as
they shed light on the current state and trends in the spatiotemporal variability of the ice-
thermal regime of Lake Baikal, the change in the intra-annual distribution of their runoff, and
the influence of climatic factors and atmospheric circulation parameters on the transformation
of runoff parameters of the lake tributaries. The study also analyzes the influence of
variability in climatic characteristics and atmospheric circulation parameters on the
variability of hydrophysical conditions of Lake Baikal.

Keywords: Lake Baikal, climate change, thermal regime, ice regime, runoff parameters

1
1. Introduction

The study, driven by a sense of urgency, aims to identify and quantify current trends in the
variability of environmentally significant hydrological characteristics of Lake Baikal and its
tributaries. Lake Baikal, a World Natural Heritage Site and the world's largest reservoir of
fresh surface water, is currently under severe threat due to climate change and anthropogenic
activities. The implications of these threats are dire, as the lake ecosystem is at risk of quickly
reaching a dangerous state. Therefore, studying changes in lake tributary flow hydrophysical
and meteorological characteristics is not just important, but crucial for sustainable water
resource management (Touchart, 1995; Chalov et al., 2023).
Lake Baikal is located in southeastern Siberia between 51°28' and 55°4' north latitudes and
103°43' and 109°58' east longitudes (Figure 1). Satellite-observed gravity data retracked to the
Earth's surface (e.g., Sandwell and Smith, 2009) is a powerful instrument for solving different
tectonic-geodynamic and environmental problems (e.g., Eppelbaum, 2017; Eppelbaum et al.,
2021).
Lake Baikal is estimated to be 20–30 million years old, making it one of the 13 ancient lakes
in the world. Lake Baikal is the world’s deepest (1,642 m) and largest freshwater lake by
volume. According to modern data, the length of the lake along the Thalweg is 672 km, its
width is from 79 to 27 km, and its area is about 23.6 thousand km2. Here, 20% of the world’s
freshwater reserves are found in liquid form (Bolgrien, 1993; Makarewicz and Bertram, 1993;
Martin, 1994; Shimaraev et al., 1994; Garmaeva, 2001; Sherstyankin et al., 2006; Hampton et
al. 2008; Troitskaya et al., 2015; Abasov et al., 2017; Avrorin et al., 2019).
The Lake Baikal catchment (Figure 2) is transboundary and faces enormous challenges for the
Russian Federation and Mongolia. The total catchment area of Lake Baikal is 576.5 thousand
km2 (Filippova et al., 1982; Gulgonov, 1996; Koval et al., 2005; Garmayev, 2008; Törnqvist
et al., 2014; Kichigina et al.; 2016; Sinyukovich et al., 2019; Vladimirov et al., 2021). This
water area includes the lake. Baikal, which is 31.7 thousand km². 44.6% of the catchment area
is located within the Russian Federation (in the Republic of Buryatia – 31.8%, in the Trans-
Baikal Territory – 10.2%, in the Irkutsk region – 2.2%, in the Republic of Tyva – 0.4%), 55.4%
of the area The watershed is located on the territory of the Republic of Mongolia. About 53%
of the volume of river waters was formed in the territory of Buryatia, 27% – in Mongolia, 16%
– in the Trans-Baikal territory, and 4% – in the Irkutsk region.
Three hundred sixty-five permanent watercourses flow into Lake Baikal. The lake’s catchment
extends from southeastern Siberia to parts of northern Mongolia. Administratively, it is divided
between three constituent entities of the Russian Federation: the Republic of Buryatia, the
Irkutsk region, and the Chita region. Lake Baikal and its drainage basin are characterized by
significant biodiversity and abundant natural resources. Over half of the Baikal region’s 2,615
plant and animal species are endemic. The Baikal region is a striking example of the
coexistence of different cultures and faiths over the centuries. Preserving the unique lake
culture, values, and environmental, ethnic, and cultural traditions of the local population is one
2
of the critical elements in developing a model for sustainable development of the Baikal region
(Bazarzhapov, et al., 2013; Batuev, 2015).

FIGURE 1 Compiled satellite-observed gravity map retracked to the Earth’s surface of the studied region
and accompanied by main tectonic and morphological elements. Gravity field isolines are given in mGals
(1 mGal = 10-5 m/s2). Tectonic features are from (Nielsen and Thybo (2006), Petit and Déverchère (2006))

2. Materials and methods

To study climate change within the entire transboundary Lake Baikal basin, NCEP-DOE
Reanalysis 2 data (Kanamitsu et al., 2002) on average monthly air temperature and
precipitation at regular grid nodes for the period from 1979 to 2023 were used as a source of
meteorological information. The NCEP-DOE Reanalysis 2 project uses a state-of-the-art
analysis/prediction system to perform data assimilation using historical data from 1979 to the
present. Much of this data is available on PSL in its original format 4 times a day, as well as
daily and monthly averages.

3
FIGURE 2 Lake Baikal and its watershed (1-6 show the mouths of individual tributaries of the lake:
Selenga River (1), Barguzin River (2), Upper Angara River (3), Goloustnaya River (4), Buguldeika
River (5), Anga River (6))

The NCEP–DOE Atmospheric Model Recomparison Project 2 continues the “50-year” (1948
to present) NCEP–NCAR Reanalysis Project. NCEP-DOE Reanalysis 2 covers the “20-year”
satellite period from 1979 to the present and uses an updated forecast model, an updated data
assimilation system, improved diagnostics, and corrections to known processing problems in
the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data. Only minor differences are found in primary analysis
variables such as free atmosphere geopotential height and extratropical Northern Hemisphere
winds. At the same time, significant improvements in the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis were
achieved in land surface parameters and land-ocean fluxes. This analysis can complement the
NCEP–NCAR reanalysis project, especially if the original analysis has problems. The
differences between the two analyses also provide a degree of uncertainty in the current
analyses. The data is freely available on the PSL (The NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory)
website in the NetCDF (Network Common Data Form) format, a dual file format that is

4
essential for storing and processing data in a portable and self-defining form and is a standard
for sharing raw data. The work involved data from the NCEP-DOE Reanalysis 2 project on
monthly average precipitation intensity and monthly average air temperature provided at the
nodes of a regular grid of 1.9°×1.9°.
To analyze runoff parameters, we used a long-term series of average monthly flow rates in the
outlet sections: the Selenga (1948-2020), Barguzin (1936-2020), Upper Angara (1939-2020),
Goloustnaya (1975-2020), Anga (1971-2020) and Buguldeika (1975-2020), divided into
several periods, each of which included the same number of 22-23-year magnetic cycles of
solar activity for a more representative analysis of the series and to exclude the influence of
several natural cycles on the runoff on the analysis results. To process hydrological
information, statistical processing methods, methods for calculating intra-annual distribution,
and others were used.
When studying Lake Baikal, which has such an impressive water area, remote sensing data
makes it possible to monitor the state of the entire reservoir and obtain spatiotemporal
information about the processes occurring in the lake, which cannot be provided using ship
and expeditionary research alone. Diagnostics of the state of reservoirs using remote methods
is based on the ability to register a wide range of significant parameters of the aquatic
environment with remote equipment (Tikhomirov, 1982; Vinogradov, 1984; Thomas and
Emery, 1988; Kozintsev, 2002; Sutyrina, 2016; Berhane et al., 2018).
This study used AVHRR (Advanced Very High-Resolution Radiometer) data from MetOp
(Meteorological Operational satellite) and NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration) satellites over a long period of time, providing observations of the Earth's
surface in 6 spectral bands from visible to thermal infrared with a spatial resolution of 1100 m
and observation frequency up to 6 times a day.

The AVHRR radiometer is a typical scanner and measures the Earth's own reflective radiation
in six spectral ranges: 0.58–0.68 µm; 0.725–1.0 µm; 1.58-1.64 µm (daytime); 3.55–3.93 µm
(nighttime); 10.3–11.3 µm; 11.4-12.4 µm. The resulting image corresponds to a strip of the
Earth’s edge at 2,600 km along the satellite’s path, which provides a complete overview of the
Lake Baikal drainage basin in a single pass. Long-term experience operating the AVHRR
device has shown that this system is one of the most successful for studying seas, oceans, and
inland waters. AVHRR has one of the longest satellite observation series, allowing climate
parameters and their variability to be estimated on a data-driven basis.
In this work, to map the hydrophysical fields of Lake Baikal, methods developed by members
of the team of authors were used: a) algorithm for estimating water surface temperature using
AVHRR data (Sutyrina, 2016), b) regional algorithms for assessing ice thickness, stages of its
melting, and destruction according to AVHRR data, adapted for Lake Baikal (Sutyrina, 2017).
To fill the gaps caused by cloudiness in the series of satellite observations of ice conditions
and the temperature of surface waters of Lake Baikal, the work used linear interpolation of
satellite data in time (Sutyrina and Timofeyeva, 2018). Filling gaps in the series of satellite

5
information is necessary to assess various parameters of the ice-thermal regime (including
assessment of average ten-day, average monthly values of characteristics, etc.).
To study the relationship with atmospheric circulation parameters, NOAA data on the
atmospheric circulation index AO (Arctic Oscillation Index) values over a long-term period
were used. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is a climate index of the state of atmospheric
circulation over the Arctic (Zhou et al., 2001; Larson et al., 2005; Overland and Wang, 2005;
Liu et al., 2023).
The AO index describes the difference in air pressure between the Arctic and mid-latitudes.
The stronger this difference, the stronger the West Wind carries air masses from the North
Atlantic to Northern Europe and Siberia. If the index weakens and turns hostile, polar air will
flow far south, bringing cold winters to Europe and Asia. It consists of a positive phase,
characterized by below-average geopotential heights, also called negative geopotential height
anomalies, and a negative phase, in which the opposite is true.
The degree of penetration of Arctic air into mid-latitudes is associated with the AO index,
which is determined by the nature of surface atmospheric pressure. In the negative phase, the
polar low-pressure system (known as the polar vortex) over the Arctic is weaker, resulting in
weaker upper-level winds (westerlies). The result of weakening westerly winds is that cold
Arctic air can move further south into lower latitudes. The opposite is true when the AO is
positive: the polar circulation is stronger, causing cold air and storms to stay further north at
higher latitudes. The Arctic Oscillation often shares a phase with the North Atlantic Oscillation
NAO.
When the AO index is positive, surface pressure in the polar region is low. This helps the mid-
latitude jet stream blow strongly and consistently from west to east, thus keeping cold Arctic
air in the polar region. When the AO index is negative, the polar region tends to experience
high pressure, weaker zonal winds, and more significant movement of cold polar air into the
mid-latitudes. Weather conditions in the negative phase are generally “opposite” to those in
the positive phase.

3. Results
3.1. Climate change factors in the formation of runoff within the Lake Baikal catchment
area
Climate change directly affects the formation of hydrophysical fields in Lake Baikal and the
flow of tributaries into the lake. It can significantly transform hydrological conditions in river
basins. The variability of the flow of Baikal tributaries, in turn, leads to changes in the lake's
level regime (Bazarzhapov et al., 2003) and determines the relevance of this type of research.
According to the NCEP-DOE Reanalysis 2 project, trends in changes in some meteorological
elements have been determined (Figure 3). In particular, it was found that after 1979, there

6
were statistically significant trends towards an increase in average annual air temperature by
0.3 °C per decade (p = 0.002) in the southern part of the basin at latitudes below 50 ° N and
an increase in temperature by 0.2 °C per decade (p = 0.02) – in the northern part of the
catchment area. In some months, the rate of increase in average air temperature is about 0.5-
0.7 °C per decade. An increase in air temperature contributes to an increase in evaporation
and increases the discharge part of the water balance of the lake’s tributaries.
Long-term precipitation variability was also examined using NCEP-DOE Reanalysis 2 data.
In the northern part of the basin, there is a statistically significant trend in precipitation
changes from 1979 to 2022. not visible. In the southern part of the basin, multidirectional
statistically significant trends are observed: a decrease in annual precipitation of 147 mm per
decade (p = 0.0000001) in 1990-2009, replaced by an increase of 258 mm per decade (p =
0.0004). Changes in precipitation directly affect the incoming part of the water balance of
Lake Baikal. Differences in trends in different parts of the basin are explained by the
significant extent of the basin and the influence of different circulation factors within its
territory.
The work also analyzed changes in the intra-annual air temperature and precipitation
distribution from 1998 to 2020. compared to 1979-1997 (Figure 4). According to the bar
graphs presented in Figure 3, the average monthly temperature over a long-term period
increased in the later period by one °C or more in February-April, June-July - in the northern
part of the catchment, and February-April, June-September – in its southern part. Over the
year, air temperature increased by 0.7 and 0.8 °C in the southern and northern parts of the
basin, respectively.

7
FIGURE 3 Long-term variability of annual precipitation and air temperature within the Lake Baikal
catchment area according to NCEP-DOE Reanalysis 2 data

Even more pronounced changes occurred in the intra-annual distribution of

precipitation. In the southern part of the basin, they decreased in the later period by a third or
more in all summer months. In the northern part, the decrease in precipitation also occurred in
the summer months, but it does not look as dramatic.

8
FIGURE 4 Distribution of mean monthly precipitation and air temperature within the Lake Baikal
catchment area according to NCEP-DOE Reanalysis 2 data for the periods 1979-1997 and 1998-2020.
A and C relate to the northern part of the Baikal Basin, and B and D relate to the southern

3.2. Changes in the flow of tributaries of Lake Baikal

River flow is a multifactorial natural process. The action of various natural factors manifests
itself in different ways. Some promote precipitation over the earth's surface, while others slow
down the flow or eliminate the possibility of its formation (Davydov et al., 1973). The main
factor that determines the development of runoff is climate. Climate affects runoff directly and
through other natural factors: soil, vegetation, and relief. Against the general background of
the influence of climate on the formation of runoff and its magnitude, the influence of other
non-climatic factors appears in the relief of the basin, geological structure, the degree of forest
cover, lake content, swampiness, etc. A particular influence is also exerted by the size of the
basin, its shape, and in the mountains - orientation of slopes about the sides of the horizon and
moisture-bearing air flows. The influence of all these factors affects the regime in two ways:
on the one hand, they change climatic conditions – precipitation, air temperature, and
evaporation, and on the other hand, they affect the flow of water from the slopes to the
riverbeds and losses due to infiltration (Komlev, 2002, 2006). Economic activities carried out
within the lake's catchment area without complying with the necessary environmental
9
requirements lead to profound negative changes in the environment: disruption of the water
balance, intensification of erosion processes, water pollution by soil erosion products, and
organic matter washed away from fields, changing the structure of runoff towards increasing
surface flow, deterioration of the environmental situation and increased fire danger in the
forest, intensification of mudflows and avalanches. Part of the lake’s catchment area, Baikal,
on the territory of Mongolia, is the most densely populated and intensively developed territory,
where the largest cities of Mongolia are concentrated, the mining, metallurgical, and chemical
industries are located, and arable, pasture, and hay irrigated lands are located (Gulgonov,
2006).
Under the influence of changes in climatic factors described above, as well as basin factors,
because of economic activities within the catchment area and the transformation of landscapes,
etc., considered by different teams of authors in many years of research, a change in the inflow
into Lake Baikal occurs. Flow measurements taken on rivers over a long period show that their
value is subject to significant fluctuations. At the same time, the water flow in the river changes
both during the calendar year and from year to year (Vazhnov, 1976). Therefore, the work pays
attention to the long-term variability of the intra-annual flow distribution and the inter-annual
variability of the average annual flows of the studied water courses.
During the study, using the example of six tributaries of Lake Baikal: the Selenga, Barguzin,
Upper Angara, Goloustnaya, Anga, and Buguldeika rivers, the change in flow over a long-term
period was studied. The first three watercourses are the largest tributaries of the lake and the
river. The Selenga brings half the volume of the total flow of river water into the lake, and its
drainage area occupies 78% of the lake’s catchment area – almost the entire southern part.
A comparative assessment of changes in the intra-annual distribution of the flow of Baikal
tributaries in 1997-2020 is given about the distribution in the earlier period 1975-1998 (Figure
5). The most noticeable changes in the intra-annual flow distribution affected the main
tributary of the lake – the Selenga River, where flow rates decreased by almost a third in July-
September, which, considering the runoff travel time of one month, correlates well with the
identified changes in the intra-annual distribution of precipitation in the southern part of the
catchment area of Lake Baikal.

10
FIGURE 5 Mean monthly river discharge of the six individual rivers entering Lake Baikal distribution
for the periods 1975-1997 and 1998-2020

Generally, comparing periods demonstrates a decrease in the average annual river flow. Selenga
by 21.6% in a later period. The Barguzin River also revealed a decrease in average monthly
expenses from 1997 to 2020 relating to 1975 to 1998, from January to September, and at Upper
River, average monthly flows in most months increased compared to the earlier period; near
the Goloustnaya, Buguldeika, and Anga rivers, there is a decrease in water flows in the later
period in June and July. This phenomenon appeared probably due to the withdrawal of water
for agricultural water supply, which increased along with the increasing role of settlements
located on the banks of these watercourses to serve the tourism industry on Lake Baikal.
During the study, based on a series of hydrological information, trends in changes in

11
 the flow rates of the studied lake tributaries were analyzed. Baikal over a long period. Cyclical
changes without statistically significant trends were revealed on the rivers Barguzin, Upper
Angara, Buguldeyka, Goloustnaya, and Anga. The Selenga River also revealed a cyclical
pattern of changing positive and negative trends, the same as in the case of precipitation in
the southern part of the Lake Baikal basin. In general, for the entire period 1948-2020. the
linear trend of changes in water flows is a linear trend of a decrease in average annual water
flows by 318 m3 per decade, but with moderate statistical significance (p = 0.09) (Figure 6).
In addition, a statistically significant trend in changes in water flows was identified in
Buguldeika (p = 0.03).

FIGURE 6 Long-term variability of annual Selenga River discharge

Based on the analysis of a long-term series of information on average annual discharge

values compared to a series of annual precipitation amounts, a statistically significant
noticeable linear relationship was revealed between river discharges. Selenga and
precipitation within its drainage basin (r = 0.68, p = 0.008) in 1979-2020. However, other
studies (Sutyrina, 2015) show that such dependencies change over a long-term period under
the influence of basin factors, including the degradation of landscapes within the catchment.
And with the same amount of precipitation, lower discharge values will be formed.
3.3. Changes in the ice regime of Lake Baikal

Study of the ice cover on the lake. Baikal also has scientific and practical significance. Ice
cover significantly impacts the conditions for the formation of energy flows in the "reservoir-
atmosphere" system, prevents wind mixing, and determines the uniqueness of all elements of
the regime of the studied reservoir. From a practical point of view, information about ice
conditions is necessary for the systematic navigation and transportation of goods on ice.
Forecasting the state of the ice cover is necessary to solve practical problems related to

12
determining the beginning and end of the navigation period, with the organization and
planning of the transit of people and cargo over an established surface. Such a forecast is also
necessary for rescue services in emergencies, especially those involving people on ice
(Vereshchagin, 1939; Vazhnov, 1976; Sutorikhin et al., 2013; Sutyrina, 2017).

Lake Baikal is in an area with a sharply continental climate, except for a small area at the
river's source. Hangars are frozen yearly and covered with ice for four to six months
(Shimaraev et al., 1994). The most important feature is the ice regime of the lake. Baikal is a
gradual late-freezing event that occurs only in the middle of winter, a significant period after
the appearance of Siberian frosts. Ice formation and its destruction occur gradually from the
Northern basin to the Southern one and vice versa.

Based on a series of maps of ice conditions developed by the authors, the Baikal water area
was studied in the autumn-winter-spring periods according to data from the AVHRR
radiometer (NOAA) using the Sputnik program.

The choice of the Sputnik software used in the work is because this software package provides
intuitive, modern tools for creating automated complexes for processing space information.
The Sputnik program allows visual analysis of the ice situation and a classification procedure
to recognize clear water and water areas covered with ice of any (non-zero) concentration.

Low-cloud images were selected and processed from 1998 to 2021 during the work. Using
maps of ice conditions compiled using the author's algorithms based on AVHRR data, an
assessment of quantitative parameters characterizing the features of the lake's ice regime was
given. Baikal: the timing of the appearance of various ice phenomena, the timing of the
opening of water areas and the timing of clearing them of ice, for the lake Baikal as a whole,
separately for the Southern, Central, and Northern basins, the characteristics of their
interannual variability and the main trends of change over a long-term period are determined.

As part of the study, maps of Lake Baikal were compiled based on satellite data, showing
which areas are occupied by ice of any concentration on a given date (Figure 7). Thanks to
the compiled cartographic images, it is possible to track the dynamics of the timing of ice
melting on the lake and compare it in different years.

13
Figure 7. Ice cover on different dates of Lake Baikal in 2010 (cold) (A) and 2017 (mean
condition) (B)

For the period 1998-2021, it was determined that the latest periods of clearing the water area of
Lake Baikal were observed in 2010, the earliest – in 2020. Figure 8 shows the progress of ice cover
in the autumn-winter-spring periods of 2009-2010 and 2019-2020, which correspond to the latest
and the early clearing of Lake Baikal from ice, in comparison with 2015-2016 and 2018-2019,
which demonstrates conditions close to the average for 1998-2021.

FIGURE 8 Lake Baikal ice concentration in individual years

14
 From Figure 7, at the beginning of the process of clearing a reservoir of ice,
corresponding to an ice cover of 95%, the range of observation periods is only 13 days, with
an ice cover of 50% the range of observation periods increases to 22 days and with an ice
cover of 5% it further increases and reaches 33 days.

Formation of primary ice's forms, timing and development of autumn ice drift, growth
and deformation of the ice cover, and its spring destruction on Lake Baikal represent complex
hydrophysical processes, broadly developing under the influence of hydrometeorological
factors of the previous period. Thus, the onset of various stages of the ice regime reflects a
complex of long-term hydrometeorological impacts on the reservoir, which, thus, can act as
indicators of future ice phenomena (Verbolov et al., 1965; Galaziy, 1993). Interannual
fluctuations in the intensity of winter ice processes are primarily related to the general
atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere.

The study revealed trends in the earlier onset of spring ice events throughout the lake.
Baikal and several limnic areas have negative trends of 2.7-4.5 days per decade (Figure 9);
however, the trend is statistically significant (p = 0.05) only for the lake’s northern basin.

FIGURE 9 Long-term variability of the timing of cleaning Lake Baikal from ice compared to the AO
index

15
3.4. Changes in the temperature regime of Lake Baikal

Constant monitoring and operational mapping of water surface temperature are necessary
when studying global and local climate change since water temperature is an important
indicator that makes it possible to identify climate changes (Verbolov et al., 1965; Higgins et
al., 2000; Kozintsev, 2002).

Information on the distribution of water temperature is necessary for calculating the elements
of the heat balance; it is required to assess the accumulation and consumption of heat by water
masses due to their heat exchange with the atmosphere and the lakebed. In addition, data on
surface temperature are necessary to develop methods for predicting the timing of the opening
and freezing of a reservoir.

Water temperature is an essential parameter of the state of the ecosystem of a reservoir. It

affects the physical, chemical, biochemical, and biological processes occurring in the lake
and, ultimately, the intensity of self-purification processes of water bodies. The
spatiotemporal distribution of water temperature has both a direct and indirect effect on the
biological productivity of a reservoir and is one of its most important indicators. The
temperature of the reservoir determines the habitat conditions of lake flora and fauna
(Davydov et al., 1973; Bolgrien, 1993; Galaziy, 1993). Water temperature plays the role of a
limiting or activating factor in the process of photosynthesis of primary organic matter since
the rate of photosynthesis is almost entirely determined by water temperature at optimal light
intensity. The climate in the Baikal region is typically continental. However, Lake Baikal has
a significantly milder temperature due to its enormous volume of water. According to its
thermal regime, the lake. Baikal is one of the lakes in the temperate zone: in the warm season,
the water temperature in the lake increases towards the surface layers; in cold times, on the
contrary, the surface layers of water cool more than the deep ones. Significant changes in
water temperature throughout the year are observed only in the upper 200-250-meter layer of
water; the layers located below, down to the very bottom, are characterized by a gradual and
slight drop in temperature with depth. The water in the bottom layers has a temperature not
of 4.0 °C but of 3.1 °C. This is explained by the tremendous pressure at significant depths,
where water with a temperature of 3.1 °C has a higher density than water with a temperature
of 4.0 °C at the surface.

The large size, elongated basin, and complex configuration of the shores of Lake Baikal are
created by a variety of local winds and uneven distribution of atmospheric pressure, causing
surge phenomena (Abasov et al., 2017), influencing the distribution of the surface
temperature of the lake's water, so in coastal areas during surges the temperature can reach

16
 16-17 ° C, mainly under the eastern coast. It rises to 22-23 °C in shallow bays and sores in
summer.

The work studied the features of interannual, seasonal, and daily variability of lake surface
water temperature of Baikal according to AVHRR radiometer data. During the study, a series
of maps of the distribution of water surface temperature of Lake Baikal were compiled using
the author's algorithms based on AVHRR data (Figure 10). The resulting cartographic images
demonstrate intra-annual and inter-annual variability in the temperature distribution on the
lake's surface. Based on lake surface temperature maps. Baikal, a quantitative assessment of
the parameters characterizing the characteristics of the temperature regime of the lake, was
obtained. Baikal (average ten-day, average monthly, maximum, and average values of water
surface temperatures for the ice-free period, as well as dates of transition of water temperature
through 0.2, 4, and 10 °C in spring and autumn for Lake Baikal as a whole, separately for
Southern, Central, Northern basins, Proval, Barguzinsky, Chivyrkuisky and Posolsky Sor
bays, the Maloye More Strait and for 20 individual points on the lake) and identified the main
trends in their variability over a long-term period and analyzed their statistical significance.

FIGURE 10 Spatiotemporal variability of water surface temperature of Lake Baikal in 2003 (relatively
cold): June (A), July (B), August (C), September (D), October (E) and November (F) and 2017 (mean
condition): June (G), July (H), August (I), September (J), October (K) and November (L)

Positive trends in maximum water surface temperature values in the open parts of the
lake basins and large bays, with values from 0.2 ºC to 1.2 ºC per decade, were identified
(Figure 11), and their statistical significance was assessed. In most cases, the trends are for
the period 1998-2020. Trends in maximum water surface temperatures in open parts of water
areas have not yet reached statistical significance.

17
 The value of multiple correlation coefficients of the maximum values of water surface
temperature in the open parts of various limnic areas of Lake Baikal with the timing of the
cleansing of this area and the average surface air temperature for the month preceding the
observed maximum water temperature was determined. The multiple correlation coefficient
for the Southern, Central, and Northern basins of the lake ranges from 0.67 to 0.84, which
suggests the dominant influence of these factors but does not exclude the possible impact of
various kinds of dynamic phenomena (currents, upwelling, wind mixing, etc.) on the
formation maximum values of water temperature at the surface.

FIGURE 11 Long-term variability of maximum water surface temperature of Lake Baikal

In addition to changes in the maximum water temperature values on the surface in open
parts of water areas from year to year, the dates when these values were observed also varied
during the study period for Lake Baikal. These dates varied from July 20 (2015) to September
2 (2009); on average, they fall on August 13.

The study assessed the amplitude of variability of the average monthly values of the
surface water temperature of the lake. Baikal for the period from 1998 to 2021. An estimate
is given of the range of the average surface temperature over the lake's water area, the value
of which can reach almost three °C per day in June and four °C in July and August. According
to the study, the range of the average surface temperature over the water area during the ice-
free period can reach up to 19 °C.

18
 Of course, the reliability and significance of temperature data can be significantly
increased by measuring them at different levels (satellite, ground, and borehole observations)
with their subsequent 4-dimensional (4th component – time) multidimensional statistical
generalization (e.g., Eppelbaum et al., 2014).

4. Conclusions

Currently, inland water bodies are under constant anthropogenic influence and gradually lose
their ability to self-purify, which can ultimately lead to irreversible processes. The ongoing
changes require updating information about the current state of water bodies and trends in
their variability. During the study, using data from the AVHRR radiometer, reanalysis data
on air temperature and precipitation, information on teleconnection indices of atmospheric
circulation and materials from hydrological posts over a long period, the modern hydro-
climatic conditions of the Lake Baikal catchment, the characteristics of the ice-thermal
regime, as well as trends were studied their changes against the background of increased
anthropogenic pressure and climate change.

Significant trends in changes in air temperature within the basin over the long-term
period 1975-2020 have been established. Multidirectional trends in precipitation within the
catchment and changes in the flow of several tributaries of Lake Baikal were identified. It has
been established that there is a statistically significant linear trend in changes in the timing of
cleansing of the lake’s northern basin, which occurs against the background of a tendency
towards the predominance of the positive AO phase.

The study results demonstrate changes in several hydrological parameters of Lake

Baikal and its tributaries, despite ongoing climate change and increasing anthropogenic
influence.

19
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