Flight delay analysis system by Machine learning

Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for

the award of the degree of

Bachelor of Computer Applications (BCA)

to

ASIAN SCHOOL OF BUSINESS, NOIDA

Affiliated to Ch. Charan Singh University, Meerut

Submitted to: Submitted by:

Project Guide Name: prof. Shilpa narula Student Name: Prashant

Project Guide Designation: professor Roll number: 210398106044
Batch: 2021-2024

Asian School of Business (ASB)

A2, Sector – 125, Noida
Website: www.asb.edu.in
 Declaration

I, Mr./Ms. Prashant , Roll No. 210398106044 hereby declare that the

Project Report (BCA-605) entitled “ Flight delay analysis system by Machine learning” is done by me and
it is an authentic work carried out by me at department of Computer Application, ASB. The matter
embodied in this project work has not been submitted earlier for the award of any degree or diploma to
the best of my knowledge and belief.

Signature of the Student: Date:

 Asian School of Business

Certificate

This is to certified that the Project Report (BCA-605) entitled “

Flight delay analysis system by Machine learning”
is submitted to Asian School of Business, in partial fulfillment of the requirements
for the award of the Bachelor of Computer Application, and is an original work by
Prashant, 210398106044.

The project has been done under my supervision & guidance and the project has
not formed the basis for the award of any degree / diploma or other similar title to
any candidate.

Dean/Principal Signature of the

Guide

Asian School of Business

 Acknowledgement

I would like to express my deepest gratitude to all those who have contributed to the

successful completion of the “Flight delay analysis system by Machine learning”. This

project has been a challenging yet rewarding journey, and it would not have been possible

without the support and guidance of several individuals.

First and foremost, I would like to thank my project mentor, prof Shilpa Narula and Dean

Sir for their invaluable guidance, insightful feedback, and continuous encouragement

throughout the development of this project. Their expertise and patience have been

instrumental in shaping the direction and success of this application.

I am also grateful to my professors and instructors at Asian School of Business, whose

teaching and mentorship have provided me with the foundational knowledge and skills

necessary to undertake this project. Their dedication to education and research has inspired

me to pursue excellence in my work.

A special thanks to my friends and classmates, who have provided moral support and

constructive criticism during the development process. Their willingness to participate in

testing and provide feedback has been crucial in refining the application.

I would also like to acknowledge the contributions of the developers and communities

behind the tools and technologies used in this project, including the developers of python,

the Google Translate API, and various open-source libraries. Their hard work and

innovation have made it possible to create a robust and efficient translation application.
Finally, I am deeply appreciative of my family for their unwavering support and

encouragement. Their belief in my abilities has been a constant source of motivation and

strength.

Thank you all for your support and contributions to the Flight delay analysis system by

Machine learning

Sincerely,

Prashant

BCA (2021-2024)
 Abstract

Flight delays are a significant issue affecting airlines, airports, and passengers, leading to a

range of negative consequences including financial losses, operational inefficiencies, and

passenger dissatisfaction. Over the past few decades, the prediction of flight delays has

been a heavily researched area due to the complexity of the air transportation system, the

variety of prediction methods available, and the massive amounts of flight data generated.

Developing accurate models to predict these delays has proven to be a challenging task.

The difficulty arises from the intricate nature of the factors influencing flight operations,

such as weather conditions, air traffic control restrictions, and technical issues, as well as

the need to process and analyze large datasets.

In this context, our paper presents a thorough literature review of the approaches used to

build flight delay prediction models. We aim to provide a comprehensive understanding of

the different strategies and techniques employed in this domain. To achieve this, we

propose a detailed taxonomy that categorizes the various initiatives based on their scope,

the types of data they utilize, and the computational methods they implement. This

structured classification helps in systematically organizing the diverse methodologies,

making it easier to identify trends, strengths, and weaknesses in the existing research.

A particular emphasis is placed on the increasing use of machine learning methods for flight

delay prediction. Machine learning has gained prominence due to its ability to handle large

volumes of data and uncover complex patterns that traditional statistical methods might

miss. By reviewing the state-of-the-art machine learning techniques applied in this field,
we highlight the advancements and potential these methods offer for improving prediction

accuracy.

Furthermore, our paper goes beyond merely reviewing the existing approaches by also

evaluating the accuracy metrics used in flight delay prediction. Understanding and

comparing the performance of different models is crucial for identifying the most effective

strategies and guiding future research efforts. By providing this comprehensive review and

analysis, we aim to contribute to the ongoing efforts to mitigate the impact of flight delays

through better prediction and more informed decision-making.

 TABLE OF CONTENT

S. No. Topic Page No

1. Chapter- 1 Introduction

2. Chapter- 2 Software Development Life Cycle (SDLC)

3. Chapter- 3 System Requirement Specification (SRS)

4. Chapter- 4 System Design

5. Chapter- 5 System Development

6. Chapter- 6 Conclusion and Future Scope

7 Bibliography

8 Appendices / Annexures
 Chapter 1:

INTRODUCTION

Flight delays are a significant issue affecting airlines, airports, and passengers, leading

to a range of negative consequences including financial losses, operational

inefficiencies, and passenger dissatisfaction. Over the past few decades, the prediction

of flight delays has been a heavily researched area due to the complexity of the air

transportation system, the variety of prediction methods available, and the massive

amounts of flight data generated. Developing accurate models to predict these delays

has proven to be a challenging task. The difficulty arises from the intricate nature of

the factors influencing flight operations, such as weather conditions, air traffic control

restrictions, and technical issues, as well as the need to process and analyze large

datasets.

In this context, our paper presents a thorough literature review of the approaches used

to build flight delay prediction models. We aim to provide a comprehensive

understanding of the different strategies and techniques employed in this domain. To

achieve this, we propose a detailed taxonomy that categorizes the various initiatives

based on their scope, the types of data they utilize, and the computational methods they

implement. This structured classification helps in systematically organizing the diverse

methodologies, making it easier to identify trends, strengths, and weaknesses in the

existing research.
A particular emphasis is placed on the increasing use of machine learning methods for

flight delay prediction. Machine learning has gained prominence due to its ability to

handle large volumes of data and uncover complex patterns that traditional statistical

methods might miss. By reviewing the state-of-the-art machine learning techniques

applied in this field, we highlight the advancements and potential these methods offer

for improving prediction accuracy.

Furthermore, our paper goes beyond merely reviewing the existing approaches by also

evaluating the accuracy metrics used in flight delay prediction. Understanding and

comparing the performance of different models is crucial for identifying the most

effective strategies and guiding future research efforts. By providing this

comprehensive review and analysis, we aim to contribute to the ongoing efforts to

mitigate the impact of flight delays through better prediction and more informed

decision-making.

1.1 Problem Statement

Air transportation plays a vital role in the transportation infrastructure and contributes

significantly to the economy. Airports are known for their capability to increase

business activities in their vicinity, thus driving economic development. The aviation

industry also provides a substantial number of jobs. In 2016, a record 3.7 billion

passengers used air transport, and this number is expected to increase annually.

According to the worldwide air traffic report released by the International Air Transport

Association, the demand for air travel grew by 6.3 percent in 2016 compared to 2015.

Such a high volume of air traffic needs to be constantly monitored and managed to

prevent problems.
An aircraft is considered delayed when it departs and/or arrives later than its scheduled

time. There are several causes of flight delays, including weather changes, maintenance

issues, cascading delays from previous flights, and air traffic congestion. These delays

present a significant challenge for the aviation industry and its customers. In the USA

alone, flight delays cost approximately 22 billion US dollars annually. Airlines incur

penalties from government authorities when aircraft are held for extended periods, and

passengers experience inconvenience, financial losses, and frustration due to missed

commitments and disrupted plans.

Numerous models have been proposed to accurately forecast flight delays. In our study,

we utilize a machine learning technique known as logistic regression to predict delays.

This technique uses various independent parameters to train a model that classifies

whether an aircraft will be delayed. We implemented the algorithm using Microsoft

Azure Machine Learning Studio. By incorporating a weather dataset and merging it

with airport data, we assessed the impact of weather conditions on flight delays, thereby

enhancing prediction accuracy for real-world scenarios. The model was trained with 70

percent of the dataset and tested with the remaining 30 percent, achieving an accuracy

rate of over 80 percent in predicting outcomes.

1.2 Existing System

Various models have been developed to predict flight delays. Yufeng et al. propose a

model for calculating distributions of departure delay times, which helps in determining

air traffic congestion. This study identifies key factors influencing departure times.

Michael et al. present a model for evaluating the characteristics of queuing networks

with variable arrival times and dynamic service schedules. Beatty et al. introduce the

concept of a Delay Multiplier to predict initial delays in flight schedules. While Yufeng
et al. utilize genetic algorithms to train component mechanisms for predicting takeoff

delays, this approach is resource-intensive and lacks comprehensive testing.

1.3 Proposed System

Our proposed system calculates flight delays based on scheduled and actual arrival and

departure times. By calculating the time differences, we derive the target variable for

delay prediction. We preprocess the flight delay dataset to make it suitable for machine

learning applications. Since flight delay prediction is a regression problem, we employ

regression-based models such as linear regression and logistic regression. In cases of

data collinearity or interdependencies, we apply lasso or ridge regression. The model's

performance is validated using accuracy metrics like Root Mean Square Error (RMSE).

Objectives

1. To provide a comprehensive literature review of approaches used in flight delay

prediction models.

2. To propose a taxonomy that categorizes these approaches based on scope, data, and

computational methods.

3. To highlight the increasing use of machine learning methods in predicting flight

delays.

4. To evaluate and compare the accuracy metrics of different flight delay prediction

models.
Limitations

1. Data Quality and Availability: The accuracy of prediction models heavily depends

on the quality and availability of historical flight data, which can sometimes be

incomplete or inconsistent.

2. Complexity of Factors: Flight delays can be caused by a multitude of factors, some

of which are difficult to quantify or predict accurately, such as sudden weather changes

or unforeseen technical issues.

3. Resource Intensive: Advanced machine learning techniques, especially those

involving large datasets, can be computationally expensive and require significant

resources for training and implementation.

4. Model Generalizability: Models trained on data from specific regions or time periods

may not generalize well to other contexts without significant adaptation.

5. Real-time Application: Implementing predictive models in real-time operations

poses challenges related to data processing speed and integration with existing air

traffic management systems.

 Chapter 2:

SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT LIFE CYCLE (SDLC)

Feasibility Study

Feasibility studies assess the practicality of a project. The main aspects to consider are:

Operational Feasibility

This system aims to streamline and automate administrative tasks, reducing time and effort

compared to manual processes. It has been deemed operationally feasible.

Economic Feasibility

The project leverages existing hardware resources, minimizing additional costs. It is

network-based, allowing multiple users to access the tool simultaneously, making it

economically feasible.

Technical Feasibility

The system requires IBM-compatible machines with graphical web browsers connected to

the Internet and Intranet. It is platform-independent and developed using Java Server Pages,

JavaScript, HTML, SQL Server, and WebLogic Server. The technical feasibility has been

assessed, confirming that the project can be developed with the existing resources.

The Software Development Life Cycle (SDLC) for a flight delay analysis using

a machine learning system involves several phases to ensure the successful development

and deployment of the system. Let's break down each phase:

1. Requirement Analysis
Objective:

Gather and analyze the requirements for the flight delay analysis system using machine

learning.

Activities:

- Conduct stakeholder meetings with airlines, airports, and regulatory authorities to

understand their requirements and pain points.

- Document detailed requirements including data sources, prediction accuracy

expectations, scalability needs, and regulatory compliance.

- Perform a feasibility study to assess technical capabilities, resource availability, and

economic viability.

- Define the scope of the system, outlining the features, functionalities, and limitations.

Deliverables:

- Requirement Specification Document

- Feasibility Report

- Project Scope Document

2. System Design

Objective:

Design the system architecture and components based on the gathered requirements.

Activities:

- Create a high-level design (HLD) specifying the overall system architecture, including

data flow and machine learning model integration.

- Develop a low-level design (LLD) detailing the components, algorithms, and data storage

mechanisms.
- Select appropriate technologies for data ingestion, preprocessing, model training, and

deployment.

Deliverables:

- High-Level Design Document

- Low-Level Design Document

- Technology Stack Selection

3. Implementation

Objective:

Develop the flight delay analysis system according to the design specifications.

Activities:

- Code the data ingestion pipeline to collect flight data from various sources such as airline

databases, weather APIs, and historical records.

- Implement data preprocessing steps including cleaning, feature engineering, and

normalization.

- Develop machine learning models such as regression, classification, or time series

forecasting to predict flight delays.

- Integrate the models into the system and deploy them to a scalable infrastructure.

Deliverables:

- Source Code

- Integrated System with Machine Learning Models

- Version Control Repository

4. Testing

System Testing is a crucial phase in the software development lifecycle focused on

identifying errors and ensuring the software operates correctly. This phase involves

evaluating individual components, integrated components, and the final product to confirm

they meet specified requirements and user expectations.

Types of Tests

Unit Testing aims to verify that individual units of code, such as functions or methods,

operate as intended. It focuses on a single unit of code, involving the creation of test cases

for each function or method to ensure all decision branches and internal code flows yield

valid outputs. Unit testing is structural and invasive, requiring an understanding of the

code’s construction.

Integration Testing ensures that combined components function correctly together. It is

conducted after unit testing and involves evaluating the interactions between integrated

components. This type of testing focuses on event-driven scenarios to validate that the

combined components produce the expected outcomes and is designed to identify issues

arising from the combination of individual components.

Functional Testing validates that the software’s functions work according to specified

requirements. This type of testing focuses on the business and technical requirements,

system documentation, and user manuals. It includes checking for valid and invalid inputs,

ensuring all identified functions and outputs are exercised. Functional testing is a form of

black box testing, meaning it does not require knowledge of the internal code structure.

System Testing aims to ensure that the entire integrated system meets specified

requirements. This comprehensive testing covers the entire system and is configuration-

oriented, focusing on the system’s process descriptions and flows. It validates the complete

system's behavior and performance to ensure known and predictable results.

White Box Testing involves testing the internal structures and workings of the software. It

requires detailed knowledge of the software’s internal code and involves testing specific

code paths, loops, and logical decisions. This code-based testing ensures that internal

operations are correct.

Black Box Testing tests the software’s functionality without knowledge of its internal code.

It is based on software requirements and specifications, providing inputs and checking

outputs without considering how the software processes the input. This requirement-based

testing focuses on what the software should do rather than how it does it.

Unit Testing

Unit testing is conducted as part of the software lifecycle, focusing on verifying that each

module functions properly as a standalone unit. It ensures consistency with design

specifications by testing each module individually and verifying module interfaces.

Test Strategy and Approach

Testing is performed manually with detailed functional tests. Key objectives include

ensuring the proper functioning of all field entries, activation of pages from identified links,

and timely responses in entry screens and messages.

Features to be Tested

Key features to be tested include verifying that entries are in the correct format, preventing

duplicate entries, and confirming that links navigate to the correct pages.

Integration Testing

Integration testing focuses on verifying that integrated components work together without

errors. It addresses issues arising from combining individual components and includes

methods like Top Down and Bottom-Up Integration. Top Down Integration begins with the

main module and integrates sub-modules incrementally. Bottom-Up Integration starts with
the lowest-level modules and integrates upwards, ensuring all subordinate modules are

available before integration.

Acceptance Testing

User Acceptance Testing (UAT) involves end users to ensure the system meets functional

requirements. It ensures that the system is user-friendly and meets user expectations.

Test Results

All test cases passed successfully with no defects encountered.

5. Deployment

Objective:

Deploy the flight delay analysis system into a production environment for real-world use.

Activities:

- Plan the deployment process, including server setup, configuration, and scalability

considerations.

- Deploy the system to the production environment while ensuring minimal downtime and

optimal performance.

- Provide user training sessions to stakeholders to familiarize them with the system's

features and functionalities.

- Create documentation including user manuals and deployment guides for reference.

Deliverables:

- Deployment Plan

- Deployed System in Production Environment

- User Manuals

- Deployment Guide
6 Maintenance

Maintenance in software engineering refers to the activities required to keep software

operational and up-to-date after its initial deployment. It ensures that the software continues

to meet user needs and adapts to changing requirements and environments. The main types

of software maintenance are:

1. Corrective Maintenance

• Purpose: To fix bugs and errors that are discovered in the software after it has been

deployed.

• Scope: Includes both minor and major fixes, such as correcting a misplaced decimal

point or resolving a critical system crash.

• Example: Patching a security vulnerability or fixing a function that returns

incorrect results.

2. Adaptive Maintenance

• Purpose: To make the software work in a new or changed environment, such as

new operating systems, hardware, or other software.

• Scope: Involves modifications to the software to keep it compatible with the

evolving technical environment.

• Example: Updating the software to work with a new version of a database or

operating system.

3. Perfective Maintenance

• Purpose: To enhance the software by improving performance or adding new

features based on user feedback or changing requirements.

• Scope: Includes performance improvements, usability enhancements, and addition

of new functionalities.
 • Example: Adding a new reporting feature or optimizing the code to run faster.

4. Preventive Maintenance

• Purpose: To make changes to the software to prevent potential future issues.

• Scope: Involves restructuring or optimizing code, updating documentation, and

implementing new testing procedures to improve maintainability and prevent future

problems.

• Example: Refactoring the code to reduce complexity or performing a security audit

to identify and fix potential vulnerabilities.

5. Emergency Maintenance

• Purpose: To address urgent and unexpected problems that need immediate attention

to keep the system operational.

• Scope: Involves quick fixes and patches to resolve critical issues that can cause

significant disruption or security risks.

• Example: Applying an emergency patch to fix a critical security vulnerability that

has just been discovered.

Each type of maintenance plays a critical role in the software lifecycle, ensuring that the

software remains functional, efficient, and relevant over time. Effective maintenance

strategies involve a combination of these types to address different aspects of software

health and user satisfaction.

Deliverables:

- Maintenance Logs

- Update/Enhancement Documentation

- Support Logs
Additional Considerations

- Data Security: Ensure data privacy and security measures are in place to protect sensitive

flight information.

- Regulatory Compliance: Ensure compliance with aviation regulations and data protection

laws.

- Model Interpretability: Consider methods to interpret and explain machine learning model

predictions to stakeholders.

- Scalability: Design the system to handle large volumes of flight data and accommodate

future growth.

- User Interface: Develop a user-friendly interface for stakeholders to interact with the

system and visualize analysis results.

By following a structured SDLC tailored to the specific requirements and constraints

of flight delay analysis using machine learning, developers can systematically plan,

develop, test, deploy, and maintain a robust and efficient system that meets user needs

and quality standards.

 Chapter 3:

SYSTEMS REQUIREMENT SPECIFICATION (SRS)

3.1 Tools and Techniques for Requirement Elicitation

Requirement elicitation is the practice of collecting the requirements of a system from

users, stakeholders, and other sources. The following tools and techniques are commonly

used:

Requirement elicitation is a critical phase in the software development lifecycle, aimed at

understanding the needs and constraints of the users and stakeholders to ensure that the

final product meets their expectations. Here are the primary tools and techniques used for

requirement elicitation:

1. Interviews

Interviews are a fundamental technique for gathering detailed information from

stakeholders. They can take several forms:

Structured Interviews: In these interviews, the interviewer asks a set of predefined

questions. This approach ensures consistency in the information collected across different

stakeholders and is useful for gathering specific details about the system requirements.

Unstructured Interviews: These are more conversational and do not follow a strict

agenda. This allows stakeholders to express their needs and concerns more freely, which

can uncover insights that structured questions might miss.

Semi-structured Interviews: A blend of structured and unstructured approaches, where

the interviewer has a set of prepared questions but is free to explore topics in more depth

based on the interviewee’s responses.

2. Questionnaires and Surveys

These tools are useful for collecting information from a large audience quickly and cost-

effectively.

Online Surveys: These can be distributed via email or through survey platforms. They are

efficient for reaching a broad audience and can provide quick responses. Online tools often

offer data analysis features.

Paper Surveys: These are used in environments where digital access is limited or not

preferred. They are particularly useful for reaching participants who may not be tech-savvy.

3. Workshops

Workshops are collaborative sessions where stakeholders come together to discuss and

define requirements. They are effective for generating ideas, solving problems, and

building consensus.

Brainstorming Sessions: These are structured activities where participants generate ideas

and solutions without immediate criticism or evaluation, fostering creativity and a broad

range of ideas.

Focus Groups: In focus groups, a small, diverse group of stakeholders discusses specific

topics in depth. This method provides qualitative insights and helps understand different

perspectives and priorities.

4. Observation

Observation involves watching users interact with the current system or perform tasks to

understand their workflow, challenges, and needs.

Participant Observation: The analyst actively engages in the user’s activities, gaining

firsthand experience and deeper insights into their tasks and environment.
Non-participant Observation: The analyst observes without engaging in the user’s

activities, minimizing the influence on the user’s natural behavior and providing an

unbiased view.

5. Document Analysis

Reviewing existing documentation can provide valuable context and background

information about the current system and processes.

Manuals: User manuals and guides offer detailed information about how the existing

system operates.

System Logs: Logs can reveal common issues, usage patterns, and areas that need

improvement.

Reports: Business and operational reports can highlight key metrics, performance issues,

and strategic goals.

6. Prototyping

Prototyping involves creating preliminary versions of the system to help stakeholders

visualize the final product and provide feedback.

Low-fidelity Prototypes: Simple sketches or wireframes that illustrate basic concepts and

layout.

High-fidelity Prototypes: More detailed and interactive models that closely resemble the

final product, helping stakeholders understand the functionality and user interface.

7. Use Case Analysis

Use cases describe how users will interact with the system to achieve specific goals,

providing a structured way to capture functional requirements.

Use Case Diagrams: Visual representations that show the interactions between users

(actors) and the system.

Use Case Descriptions: Detailed narratives that describe each use case, including the steps

involved, preconditions, postconditions, and exceptions.

8. Focus Groups

Focus groups involve guided discussions with a selected group of stakeholders to gather

diverse perspectives on requirements.

Homogeneous Groups: Participants with similar backgrounds and roles, providing

consistent insights.

Heterogeneous Groups: Participants with varied backgrounds and roles, offering a range

of perspectives and uncovering different needs and priorities.

9. Brainstorming

Brainstorming sessions generate a wide range of ideas and potential requirements from

stakeholders.

Individual Brainstorming: Stakeholders generate ideas independently before sharing

them with the group, ensuring a wide range of ideas without initial influence from others.

Group Brainstorming: Collaborative idea generation in a group setting, fostering creativity

through discussion and interaction.

10. Joint Application Development (JAD)

JAD sessions involve stakeholders and developers working together in facilitated

workshops to define requirements collaboratively.

Facilitated Workshops: Structured sessions led by a facilitator to ensure productive and

focused discussions.

User Stories: Short, simple descriptions of a feature or requirement from the perspective

of the user, often used in agile development.

11. Competitive Analysis

Analyzing similar systems or products in the market to understand their features, strengths,

and weaknesses.

Feature Comparison: Identifying the features offered by competitors and assessing their

relevance and value.

Gap Analysis: Determining what is missing or could be improved in the current system

compared to competitors.

12. Mind Mapping

Mind mapping is a visual tool that helps organize and structure information, making it

easier to understand and analyze requirements.

Central Theme: The main idea or problem is placed at the center of the mind map.

Branches: Related requirements, features, and ideas radiate out from the central theme,

showing their relationships and dependencies.

By using a combination of these tools and techniques, you can effectively gather and

document comprehensive requirements, ensuring the final system meets the needs of its

users and stakeholders.

3.2 Requirement Analysis

Requirement analysis is a critical phase in the software development process where

collected requirements are reviewed, refined, and organized to ensure they are clear,
complete, and feasible. The goal is to define and document what the system should do and

how it should perform. This phase involves several key activities:

1. Classification of Requirements

Requirements are categorized to manage them effectively:

• Functional Requirements: These define specific behaviors or functions of the

system. For example, "The system must allow users to log in using a username and

password."

• Non-Functional Requirements: These define the system’s operational

characteristics. Examples include performance metrics, security standards, and

usability criteria.

2. Prioritization of Requirements

Not all requirements are equally important. Prioritizing them helps in focusing on the most

critical aspects first:

• MoSCoW Method: Requirements are categorized as Must have, Should have,

Could have, and Won't have.

• Kano Model: Categorizes requirements into Basic needs, Performance needs, and

Excitement needs.

• Cost-Benefit Analysis: Evaluates the financial impact of implementing each

requirement versus the benefits it provides.

3. Feasibility Analysis

This involves evaluating whether the requirements can be realistically implemented within

constraints like time, budget, and technology:

• Technical Feasibility: Assessing whether the technology required to implement the

requirements is available and suitable.

 • Economic Feasibility: Determining if the project is financially viable.

• Operational Feasibility: Ensuring the proposed system will function within the

existing organizational structure and processes.

4. Conflict Resolution

Conflicts between requirements from different stakeholders are identified and resolved to

ensure the final requirements are agreed upon:

• Negotiation: Stakeholders discuss and negotiate to reach a compromise.

• Trade-off Analysis: Assessing the impact of different options to find a balanced

solution.

• Decision Matrix: A tool for systematically comparing different solutions based on

multiple criteria.

5. Modeling and Specification

Visual models help in understanding and validating requirements:

• Use Case Diagrams: Illustrate how different users will interact with the system.

• Data Flow Diagrams (DFD): Show how data moves through the system.

• Entity-Relationship Diagrams (ERD): Depict the relationships between data

entities in the system.

• State Diagrams: Describe the states of the system and how it transitions from one

state to another.

6. Verification and Validation

Ensuring that the requirements are correctly captured and documented:

• Reviews and Inspections: Peer reviews and inspections to check for completeness,

consistency, and clarity.

• Prototyping: Creating prototypes to validate requirements with stakeholders.

 • Requirements Traceability Matrix (RTM): A document that maps requirements

to their corresponding design, implementation, and testing phases to ensure all

requirements are addressed.

7. Documentation

Documenting the requirements in a clear and structured format is essential for

communication and reference:

• Software Requirements Specification (SRS): A detailed document that includes

all the functional and non-functional requirements.

• User Stories: Short descriptions of features from the user’s perspective, often used

in agile methodologies.

• Requirements Baseline: The finalized and agreed-upon set of requirements,

serving as a reference for future development stages.

8. Prototyping and Simulation

Developing a prototype or simulation can help in validating the requirements:

• Low-fidelity Prototypes: Basic models or sketches to gather initial feedback.

• High-fidelity Prototypes: Detailed and interactive versions that closely resemble

the final product.

• Simulations: Running scenarios to see how the system behaves under different

conditions.

9. Communication with Stakeholders

Regular communication with stakeholders is essential to ensure alignment and manage

expectations:

• Stakeholder Meetings: Regularly scheduled meetings to review and discuss

requirements.
 • Progress Reports: Updates on the status of requirement analysis and any changes.

By systematically analyzing requirements, you ensure that the final system is well-defined,

feasible, and aligned with the stakeholders' needs and expectations. This thorough analysis

helps in minimizing misunderstandings, reducing the risk of project failures, and ensuring

successful project delivery.

System Requirements Specification

Software Requirements Specification (SRS) for Flight Delay Analysis System

1. Introduction

1.1 Purpose

The purpose of this document is to outline the software requirements for the Flight Delay

Analysis System (FDAS). The system aims to analyze flight delay data to identify patterns,

causes, and potential solutions for minimizing delays.

1.2 Document Conventions

- FDAS: Flight Delay Analysis System

- API: Application Programming Interface

- UI: User Interface

1.3 Intended Audience and Reading Suggestions

This document is intended for:

- Developers: To understand the functional and non-functional requirements.

- Project Managers: To gain insight into the project scope and deliverables.

- Stakeholders: To understand the system capabilities and constraints.

- Testers: To create test plans and test cases based on the requirements.
1.4 Project Scope

The FDAS will collect, process, and analyze flight delay data from various sources. It will

provide insights through data visualizations and reports, helping airlines and airports

improve their operations and reduce delays.

1.5 References

- FAA Flight Delay Information: https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/publications

- ICAO Airline Delay Codes: https://www.icao.int

- Industry standards for data analysis and visualization tools

2. Overall Description

2.1 Product Perspective

The FDAS is a standalone system that integrates with airline and airport databases. It will

utilize APIs to fetch real-time and historical flight data, process this data, and provide

analysis through a web-based interface.

2.2 Product Features

- Data collection from multiple sources

- Real-time data processing

- Historical data analysis

- Data visualization (charts, graphs, dashboards)

- Reporting tools

- User management and authentication

2.3 User Classes and Characteristics

- Airline Operations Staff: Require insights to improve scheduling and minimize delays.

- Airport Management: Need to identify delay patterns to optimize airport operations.

- Data Analysts: Require access to raw data and analysis tools for in-depth study.
- Executives: Need high-level reports and dashboards for decision-making.

2.4 Operating Environment

- Web-based application accessible via modern browsers (Chrome, Firefox, Safari, Edge)

- Server-side components running on cloud infrastructure (AWS, Azure, or equivalent)

2.5 Design and Implementation Constraints

- Compliance with aviation industry standards

- Data privacy and security regulations (GDPR, CCPA)

- Real-time data processing requirements

2.6 Assumptions and Dependencies

- Availability of APIs from airlines and airports

- Reliable internet connectivity

- Cloud services for data storage and processing

3. System Features

3.1 Data Collection

- Integration with APIs for real-time and historical flight data

- Support for multiple data formats (JSON, XML, CSV)

3.2 Data Processing

- Real-time processing of incoming data

- Batch processing for historical data

- Data cleansing and normalization

3.3 Data Analysis

- Statistical analysis to identify patterns and trends

- Machine learning algorithms for predictive analysis

3.4 Data Visualization

- Interactive dashboards

- Customizable charts and graphs

- Export options for reports (PDF, Excel)

3.5 User Management

- Role-based access control

- Secure authentication mechanisms

4. External Interface Requirements

4.1 User Interfaces

- Responsive web interface with intuitive navigation

- Dashboards with drill-down capabilities

- Form-based input for manual data entry

4.2 Hardware Interfaces

- No specific hardware interfaces required; system runs on standard web and server

infrastructure.

4.3 Software Interfaces

- APIs for data integration with airline and airport systems

- Database connectors for cloud-based data storage solutions

4.4 Communications Interfaces

- HTTPS for secure web communication

- API endpoints for data retrieval and submission

5. Other Nonfunctional Requirements

5.1 Performance Requirements

- System should handle up to 10,000 concurrent users

- Real-time data updates with a maximum latency of 5 seconds

5.2 Safety Requirements

- System must ensure data integrity and accuracy

- Regular backups and disaster recovery plans

5.3 Security Requirements

- Data encryption at rest and in transit

- Compliance with data protection regulations

- Regular security audits and vulnerability assessments

5.4 Software Quality Attributes

- Usability: User-friendly interface with minimal learning curve

- Reliability: 99.9% uptime guarantee

- Maintainability: Modular architecture to facilitate updates and maintenance

- Scalability: Capable of scaling to accommodate growing data and user base

This document provides a comprehensive overview of the requirements for the Flight Delay

Analysis System. It serves as a guide for the development and implementation phases,

ensuring all stakeholders have a clear understanding of the project's objectives and

constraints.

Hardware Requirements

The hardware requirements detail the specifications for the interfaces between software and

hardware components of the system. These include the configuration characteristics:

- Operating System: Windows, Linux

- Processor: Minimum Intel i3

- RAM: Minimum 4 GB

- Hard Disk: Minimum 250 GB

Software Requirements

The software requirements specify the necessary software products, including their

versions and the purpose of each interfacing software as it relates to the main software

product:

- Python IDE: Version 3.7 or higher (alternatively, Anaconda 3.7, Jupyter, or Google Colab)

- Libraries:

o Matplotlib

o NumPy

o Pandas

o Regex

o Requests

o Scikit-learn

o SciPy

o Sklearn

- Programming Language: Python

Introduction to System Environment

Anaconda
 Anaconda is a comprehensive, open-source data science package used by a
community of over 6 million users. It supports easy installation and is
compatible with Linux, macOS, and Windows. The distribution includes over
1,000 data packages, along with the Conda

Fig: 3.1 Anaconda Distribution

package and environment manager, simplifying library installation and management.

According to Anaconda’s website, "The Python and R conda packages in the Anaconda

Repository are curated and compiled in our secure environment so you get optimized

binaries that ‘just work’ on your system."

Anaconda Navigator

Anaconda Navigator is a GUI included in the Anaconda distribution. It allows users to

launch applications and manage conda packages, environments, and channels without

using command-line commands. Navigator can search for packages on Anaconda Cloud or

in a local Anaconda Repository and is available for Windows, macOS, and Linux.

Applications Available in Navigator:

o Jupyter Notebook
 o Spyder

o PyCharm

o VSCode

o Glueviz

o Orange 3

o RStudio

o Anaconda Prompt (Windows only)

o Anaconda PowerShell (Windows only)

o JupyterLab

Key Features of Applications:

- JupyterLab: An extensible environment for interactive and reproducible computing, based

on Jupyter Notebook.

- Qt Console: A PyQt GUI supporting inline figures, multiline editing with syntax

highlighting, and graphical call tips.

- Spyder: A powerful Python IDE for scientific development with features for advanced

editing, testing, debugging, and introspection.

- VS Code: A streamlined code editor supporting debugging, task running, and version

control.

- Glueviz: Used for multidimensional data visualization across files to explore relationships

within datasets.

- Orange 3: A data mining framework for data visualization and analysis with interactive

workflows.

- RStudio: A set of integrated tools for R, including R essentials and notebooks.

- Jupyter Notebook: An open-source web application for creating and sharing documents

with live code, equations, visualizations, and text.

Libraries

Matplotlib

- A Python 2D plotting library that produces publication-quality figures in various formats

and environments. It supports Python scripts, IPython shells, Jupyter notebooks, web

application servers, and more. Matplotlib aims to make simple tasks easy and complex

tasks possible.

Fig: 3.2 Matplotlib images

NumPy

- The fundamental package for scientific computing in Python. It includes a powerful N-

dimensional array object, sophisticated functions, tools for integrating C/C++ and Fortran

code, and useful linear algebra, Fourier transform, and random number capabilities. NumPy

is licensed under the BSD license.

Pandas

- Developed at AQR Capital Management and open-sourced in 2009, pandas is sponsored

by NumFOCUS since 2015. It provides a fast and efficient DataFrame object for data
manipulation with integrated indexing, tools for reading/writing data, intelligent data

alignment, flexible reshaping, and robust group-by functionality.

Seaborn

• seaborn is a statistical data visualization library based on matplotlib. It provides a

high-level interface for creating attractive and informative statistical graphics.

• Common Uses:

• Visualizing distributions of data.

• Creating complex visualizations with minimal code.

• Enhancing the aesthetics of plots.

Scikit-learn

- A machine learning library for Python featuring various classification, regression, and

clustering algorithms. It is designed to interoperate with Python numerical and scientific

libraries like NumPy and SciPy.

SciPy

- An open-source Python library for scientific and technical computing. It includes modules

for optimization, linear algebra, integration, interpolation, special functions, FFT, signal

processing, and more. It builds on the NumPy array object and is part of the NumPy stack.

matplotlib.pyplot

matplotlib is a comprehensive library for creating static, animated, and interactive

visualizations in Python. pyplot is a module in matplotlib that provides a MATLAB-like

interface for creating plots and visualizations.

Common Uses:

• Creating basic plots like line graphs, scatter plots, and histograms.

• Customizing the appearance of plots.

• Saving plots in various formats.

SKlearn.model_selection

This module in scikit-learn provides tools for model selection and evaluation, including

functions for splitting datasets into training and testing sets, cross-validation, and

hyperparameter tuning.

Common Uses:

• Splitting data into training and testing sets.

• Performing cross-validation for model evaluation.

• Hyperparameter tuning using grid search or randomized search.

Catboost.CatBoostClassifier, Catboost.Pool

CatBoost is a high-performance gradient boosting library specifically designed for

categorical features. It provides efficient implementations for classification and regression

tasks.

Common Uses:

• Training gradient boosting models with categorical features.

• Handling categorical features efficiently without preprocessing.

sklearn.metrics.confusion_matrix

This function from scikit-learn computes a confusion matrix to evaluate the performance

of a classification model.

Common Uses:

• Evaluating the performance of classification models.

 • Assessing the number of true positives, true negatives, false positives, and false

negatives.

sklearn.preprocessing

The preprocessing module in scikit-learn provides functions for preprocessing data before

fitting a model. It includes scaling, normalization, encoding categorical variables, and

generating polynomial features.

Common Uses:

• Standardizing or scaling features.

• Encoding categorical variables.

• Imputing missing values.

sklearn.naive_bayes.GaussianNB

Gaussian Naive Bayes is a simple probabilistic classifier based on Bayes' theorem with the

assumption of independence between features. It is suitable for classification tasks with

continuous features that follow a Gaussian distribution.

Common Uses:

• Classification tasks with continuous features.

• Text classification and spam filtering.

sklearn.ensemble.RandomForestClassifier

RandomForestClassifier is an ensemble learning method based on decision trees. It builds

multiple decision trees during training and combines their predictions to improve accuracy

and control overfitting.

Common Uses:

• Classification tasks with both numerical and categorical features.

• Handling large datasets with high dimensionality.

sklearn.neighbors.KNeighborsClassifier

KNeighborsClassifier is a simple and intuitive algorithm based on instance-based learning.

It classifies data points based on the majority class among their nearest neighbors in the

feature space.

Common Uses:

• Classification tasks with small to medium-sized datasets.

• Non-linear classification tasks.

sklearn.exceptions.DataConversionWarning

DataConversionWarning is a warning raised by scikit-learn when input data is converted

during model fitting or prediction.

Common Uses:

• Suppressing warnings related to data conversion.

• Ignoring warnings that may not be critical for the current workflow.

WARNINGS

The warnings module in Python provides functions to control how warnings are displayed

and handled.

Common Uses:

• Filtering or suppressing specific types of warnings.

• Ignoring warnings or converting them into exceptions.

These libraries and modules collectively provide a robust ecosystem for data analysis,

visualization, machine learning, and warnings handling in Python. They are widely used in

various data-related tasks across different domains and industri

Python

Python is a versatile, high-level, interpreted programming language that supports multiple

programming paradigms, including object-oriented, imperative, functional, and procedural

programming. It is known for its readability, simplicity, and broad standard library. Python

is used in various domains such as web development, scientific computing, data analysis,

artificial intelligence, and more.

 Chapter 4

Systems Design

4.1 Introduction to Design

Systems design is the process of defining the architecture, components, modules,

interfaces, and data for a system to meet specified requirements. This process involves

developing and designing systems that satisfy the specific needs of a business or

organization. The goal of this design is to create a single-platform web application for

multiple users, aiming to reduce errors and alleviate the stress experienced by individuals

working within the system.

4.2 UML (Unified Modeling Language) Diagrams

UML is a standardized modeling language used to specify, visualize, construct, and

document the artifacts of software systems. It incorporates a set of graphical notation

techniques to create visual models of software systems, representing the system

architecture in detail.

Importance of UML in System Design

UML is a collection of best engineering practices that have proven effective in modeling

complex and large systems. It is essential for developing object-oriented software and

enhances the software development process. By using UML, project teams can

communicate effectively, explore potential designs, and validate the software's

architectural design.

UML provides a standardized set of diagram types to arrange complex data, processes, and

systems clearly and intuitively. Although UML is not a process or procedure, it serves as a
"dictionary" of symbols, each with a specific meaning. It supports object-oriented analysis,

design, and programming, ensuring a smooth transition from system requirements to final

implementation. UML diagrams illustrate both structure and behavior, providing clear

reference points for optimizing solutions.

Use of UML Diagrams in Documentation

UML diagrams play a significant role in project documentation. They can be used in various

documents, such as requirements definitions, design documents, test plans, and user

manuals. Different UML diagrams serve different purposes:

- Use Case Diagrams: Describe functional requirements and interactions with external

entities.

- Class Diagrams: Represent the static structure of the system.

- Sequence Diagrams: Show interactions over time.

- Activity Diagrams: Illustrate workflows and business processes.

Use Case Diagram

A use case diagram represents the system's functionality from an external perspective. It

focuses on the behavior of the system by depicting the interactions between actors (external

entities) and the system itself.

 Diagram-4.1 Use Case Diagram

Key Elements of Use Case Diagrams

- Use Cases: These describe a sequence of actions providing measurable value to an actor.

They are depicted as horizontal ellipses.

- Actors: These are entities (people, organizations, or external systems) that interact with

the system. They are represented as stick figures.

- System Boundary Boxes: A rectangle surrounding the use cases, indicating the scope of

the system. Everything inside the box is within the system's scope, while anything outside

is not.

- Relationships: Various types of relationships can exist between use cases:

- Include: Indicates that one use case incorporates the behavior of another. Represented

by a dashed arrow labeled «include».

- Extend: Suggests that a use case can be extended by the behavior of another under certain

conditions. Represented by a dashed arrow labeled «extend».

 - Generalization: Depicts a relationship where a more general use case shares common

behavior, requirements, constraints, and assumptions with a specialized use case.

Represented by a solid line ending in a hollow triangle.

- Associations: Represented by solid lines between actors and use cases, indicating their

interaction. Optional arrowheads can denote the direction of the initial interaction or

primary actor.

Identified Use Cases

The "user model view" provides a perspective on the problem and solution from the

viewpoint of individuals whose problem the solution addresses. This view outlines the

goals and objectives of problem owners and their solution requirements, composed of use

case diagrams. These diagrams describe the functionality provided by a system to external

integrators, containing actors, use cases, and their relationships.

Class Diagram

Class-based modeling, or class-orientation, is a style of object-oriented programming

where inheritance is achieved through the definition of classes of objects, as opposed to the

objects themselves (contrasted with Prototype-based programming). This model is widely

used and developed within the realm of Object-Oriented Programming (OOP), wherein

objects encapsulate state (data), behavior (procedures or methods), and identity (unique

existence among all other objects). The structure and behavior of an object are determined

by a class, which serves as a blueprint for all objects of a specific type. An object is

instantiated explicitly based on a class, and once created, it is considered an instance of that

class. Objects resemble structures, enhanced with method pointers, member access control,

and an implicit data member that locates instances of the class within the class hierarchy,

essential for runtime features.

 Diagram-4.2 Class Diagram

Sequence Diagram

A sequence diagram, within the Unified Modeling Language (UML), is a type of interaction

diagram illustrating how processes interact with each other and the order in which these

interactions occur. It is a representation derived from a Message Sequence Chart. Sequence

diagrams are also referred to as event diagrams, event scenarios, and timing diagrams.

These diagrams depict different processes or objects living concurrently as parallel vertical

lines (lifelines), with horizontal arrows indicating the messages exchanged between them
in chronological order. This graphical representation allows for the specification of runtime

scenarios in a visual manner. Lifelines, when representing objects, denote roles. Messages

are used to display interactions, with solid arrows indicating synchronous calls, solid

arrows with stick heads representing asynchronous calls, and dashed arrows with stick

heads signifying return messages. Activation boxes, or method-call boxes, are opaque

rectangles drawn on lifelines to indicate ongoing processes in response to a message.

Objects invoking methods on themselves utilize messages and add new activation boxes

Diagram-4.3: Sequence Diagram

atop existing ones to denote further processing levels. Object destruction, indicated by an

X drawn atop the lifeline, occurs when an object is removed from memory, typically

resulting from a message either from the object itself or another. Messages originating from

outside the diagram are depicted by a filled-in circle (found message in UML) or from the

border of the sequence diagram (gate in UML).

4. Collaboration Diagram

While a sequence diagram is dynamic and time-ordered, a collaboration diagram serves a

similar purpose in illustrating the dynamic interaction of objects within a system. However,

a collaboration diagram distinguishes itself by also representing associations between

objects apart from their interactions with each other. Unlike sequence diagrams,

collaboration diagrams depict object associations. These diagrams can be easily converted

into sequence diagrams and vice versa using sophisticated modeling tools. The elements

within a collaboration diagram are essentially the same as those found in a sequence

diagram.

Diagram-4.4: Collaboration Diagram

5. Activity Diagram

Activity diagrams are graphical representations of workflows comprising stepwise

activities and actions, supporting choice, iteration, and concurrency. These diagrams,

within the Unified Modeling Language (UML), describe the business and operational

workflows of system components. Activities are represented by rounded rectangles,

decisions by diamonds, and the start (split) and end (join) of concurrent activities by bars.

An initial state is denoted by a black circle, while a final state is depicted as an encircled

black circle. Arrows indicate the flow of control, with solid lines illustrating simple cases

of activity sequences. However, the combination of join and split symbols with decisions

or loops can obscure the model's intended meaning.

Diagram-4.5: Activity Diagram

6. State Chart Diagram

Objects possess behaviors and states that depend on their current activity or condition. A

state chart diagram, also known as a state machine diagram, illustrates the possible states

an object can attain and the transitions that cause a change in state. Resembling a flowchart,

an initial state is represented by a large black dot, subsequent states by boxes with rounded

corners, and transitions between states by external straight lines with arrows. Historical

states are designated by circles containing the letter "H," while the final state is depicted as

a large black dot encircled.

Diagram-4.6: State Chart Diagram

4.3 IMPLEMENTATION

System Architecture Diagram-4.7: Implementation

 CHAPTER 5

SYSTEMS DEVELOPMENT

Introduction

Flight delays can significantly inconvenience passengers, preventing them from fulfilling

their commitments and attending preplanned events. This disruption can lead to financial

losses, frustration, and anger. To address this issue, several predictive models have been

proposed to forecast flight delays accurately. Among these, we employ a machine learning

technique known as Lasso regression to predict aircraft delays. Lasso regression leverages

various independent parameters to train a model that classifies whether an aircraft will

experience a delay. Our implementation of this algorithm was carried out using Microsoft

Azure Machine Learning Studio.

To enhance the accuracy of our predictions and account for real-world conditions, we

integrated a weather dataset with our flight data. This integration was performed by

matching weather conditions to the respective airport locations. We trained our model using

70 percent of the dataset and evaluated its performance on the remaining 30 percent.

Impressively, the model predicted the correct outcome in more than 80 percent of the cases.

Dataset Description

The sample data used in our study was sourced from the Department of Transportation and

encompasses comprehensive records of flight details and weather data. Specifically, we

utilized the "2015 Flight Delays and Cancellations" dataset available on Kaggle. This

dataset consists of 23,123 entries and 31 columns, including information on on-time,

delayed, canceled, and diverted flights, along with detailed flight schedules and operational

times.
Key Features of the Dataset

• MONTH - Month
• DAY_OF_MONTH - Day of Month
• DAY_OF_WEEK - Day of Week
• OP_UNIQUE_CARRIER - Unique Carrier Code
• ORIGIN - Origin airport location
• DEST - Destination airport location
• DEP_TIME - Actual Departure Time (local time: hhmm)
• DEP_DEL15 - Departure Delay Indicator, 15 Minutes or More (1=Yes, 0=No)
[TARGET VARIABLE]
• DISTANCE - Distance between airports (miles)

Project Modules

Data Preprocessing

Data preprocessing is crucial for converting raw data into a clean, analyzable dataset. The

data collected from various sources is often in raw format, which is unsuitable for analysis

without preprocessing. Our preprocessing approach involves four essential steps:

1. Cleaning Missing Values

Handling missing values is a fundamental preprocessing step. Datasets may contain

missing values that need to be addressed. A common approach is to replace missing values

with the mean of the respective column. We used the Scikit-Learn library's preprocessing

module, specifically the Imputer class, to manage missing data.

2. Splitting Training and Test Data

The next step is to split the dataset into training and test sets. Typically, 80% of the dataset

is used for training the model, while the remaining 20% is reserved for testing. This split

ensures that the model can learn from one subset and be evaluated on another to gauge its

accuracy.
3. Feature Scaling

Feature scaling standardizes the range of independent variables, making them comparable.

Many machine learning models rely on Euclidean distance, and without feature scaling,

variables with larger values can disproportionately influence the model. Scaling ensures

that all variables contribute equally to the model.

4. Label Encoding

Datasets often contain categorical labels, which must be converted into numeric form for

machine learning algorithms. Label encoding transforms these labels into a machine-

readable format. While label encoding assigns unique numbers to each class, it may

inadvertently introduce priority issues if higher numeric values are interpreted as higher

priority. This potential bias is a limitation of label encoding.

Feature Selection

Feature selection, also known as variable or attribute selection, involves identifying the

most relevant attributes for predictive modeling. Unlike dimensionality reduction, which

creates new combinations of attributes, feature selection retains existing attributes and

selects a subset that contributes most to the model's performance.

Correlation Matrix

A correlation matrix displays correlation coefficients between variables, allowing us to

identify pairs with the highest correlations. This matrix helps in understanding the

relationships between variables and selecting the most influential features.

Applying Algorithms

The processed dataset is divided into training and test sets, and regression algorithms such

as Support Vector Regression and Lasso Regression are applied. These algorithms help

predict flight delays based on the selected features.

Model Validation

Model validation ensures that the input data is suitable for model binding and provides

useful error messages for invalid entries. This step filters nonsensical inputs and validates

the model's accuracy.

Calculating R-squared Metrics

R-squared (R²) is a statistical measure that indicates the proportion of variance in the

dependent variable explained by the independent variable. It assesses the goodness of fit of

the regression model, telling us how well the data fits the model.

Algorithms

CatBoostClassifier

CatBoost (Categorical Boosting) is a powerful gradient boosting algorithm that is

particularly well-suited for handling categorical data. It was developed by Yandex and can

be used for classification and regression tasks. CatBoost's primary strength lies in its ability

to handle categorical features without the need for extensive preprocessing (e.g., one-hot

encoding).

Principle:

- Gradient Boosting: CatBoost is based on the gradient boosting framework, which builds

an ensemble of trees sequentially. Each tree tries to correct the errors of the previous ones.

- Categorical Features: CatBoost natively handles categorical variables, converting them

into numerical values internally using various encoding techniques. This reduces the

preprocessing burden on the user.

Advantages:
- Automatic Handling of Categorical Data: Saves time and effort in data preprocessing.

- High Performance: Often outperforms other gradient boosting implementations (e.g.,

XGBoost, LightGBM) on a variety of datasets.

- Reduced Overfitting: Incorporates techniques like ordered boosting to reduce

overfitting.

Limitations:

- Training Time: Training can be slower compared to simpler models like linear regression

or decision trees.

- Resource Intensive: Requires more computational resources, particularly for large

datasets.

Gaussian Naive Bayes

Gaussian Naive Bayes (GaussianNB) is a probabilistic classifier based on Bayes' theorem.

It assumes that the features are normally distributed (Gaussian distribution). This model is

straightforward and computationally efficient.

Principles:

- Bayes' Theorem: Uses Bayes' theorem to calculate the probability of each class given the

input features and assigns the class with the highest probability.

- Naive Assumption: Assumes that all features are independent of each other given the

class label (hence "naive").

Advantages:
- Simplicity: Easy to implement and understand.

- Efficiency: Fast training and prediction times, making it suitable for real-time

applications.

- Works Well with Small Datasets: Particularly effective when the dataset is small and the

feature independence assumption holds.

Limitations:

- Independence Assumption: The assumption that features are independent is often

unrealistic, which can limit the model's performance.

- Not Suitable for All Distributions: Assumes a Gaussian distribution for features, which

may not always be the case.

RandomForestClassifier

RandomForestClassifier is an ensemble learning method that constructs multiple decision

trees during training. It combines the predictions from these trees to improve accuracy and

control over-fitting. It is highly robust and versatile, suitable for a wide range of

classification tasks.

Principles:

- Ensemble Learning: Builds multiple decision trees (forest) and merges their predictions.

- Bagging: Uses bootstrap aggregating (bagging) to train each tree on a random subset of

the data, increasing diversity among trees.

- Random Feature Selection: Each tree is built using a random subset of features, which

reduces overfitting and improves generalization.

Advantages:

- High Accuracy: Often achieves higher accuracy compared to individual decision trees.

- Robustness: Reduces overfitting by averaging multiple trees.

- Versatility: Can handle large datasets with higher dimensionality.

Limitations:

- Complexity: More complex and resource-intensive compared to simpler models.

- Interpretability: Less interpretable than single decision trees due to the ensemble nature.

KNeighborsClassifier

KNeighborsClassifier (KNN) is a non-parametric algorithm used for classification and

regression. In the classification context, it predicts the class of a data point by looking at

the 'k' closest training examples in the feature space. It is simple and effective for smaller

datasets but can be computationally expensive for large datasets.

Principles:

- Instance-Based Learning: KNN is an instance-based learning algorithm, meaning it

stores all training instances and delays the learning process until a query is made.

- Distance Metrics: Commonly uses Euclidean distance to measure the closeness of data

points.

- Voting Mechanism: For classification, it uses a majority voting mechanism where the

most common class among the 'k' neighbors is chosen.

Advantages:

- Simplicity: Easy to understand and implement.

- No Training Phase: Since it is an instance-based learner, there is no explicit training

phase.

- Flexibility: Can handle multi-class classification and can be used for regression as well.
Limitations:

- Computationally Intensive: Requires significant computation during prediction,

especially for large datasets.

- Sensitive to Irrelevant Features: Performance can degrade with irrelevant or redundant

features.

- Memory Usage: Requires storing all training data, which can be memory intensive.

Each of these classifiers has its own strengths and is suited to different types of problems

and datasets. Choosing the right model depends on the specific characteristics of your data

and the problem you're trying to solve.

SOURCE CODE:

Importing necessary libraries

import pandas as pd

import numpy as np

import seaborn as sns

from matplotlib import pyplot as plt

from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split, GridSearchCV

from catboost import CatBoostClassifier, Pool

from sklearn.metrics import confusion_matrix

from sklearn import preprocessing

from sklearn.naive_bayes import GaussianNB

from sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestClassifier

from sklearn.neighbors import KNeighborsClassifier

from sklearn.exceptions import DataConversionWarning

import warnings

warnings.filterwarnings(action='ignore', category=DataConversionWarning)

warnings.filterwarnings(action='ignore', category=FutureWarning)

pd.set_option('display.max_columns', None)

Loading the data

data = pd.read_csv("C:/Users/Prashant/Downloads/data.csv")

print(data.head())

Data preprocessing
data = data.drop(['Unnamed: 9'], axis=1)

print(data['DEP_DEL15'].value_counts())

# Split the data into positive and negative

positive_rows = data.DEP_DEL15 == 1.0

data_pos = data.loc[positive_rows]

data_neg = data.loc[~positive_rows]

# Merge the balanced data

data = pd.concat([data_pos, data_neg.sample(n = len(data_pos))], axis = 0)

# Shuffle the order of data

data = data.sample(n = len(data)).reset_index(drop = True)

print(data.isna().sum())

data = data.dropna(axis=0)

print(data.info())

data['DEP_DEL15'] = data['DEP_DEL15'].astype(int)

print(data.shape)

Exploratory Data Analysis

data.describe()

plt.figure(figsize=(15,5))

sns.histplot(data['DISTANCE'], color="red", kde= True, stat='density')

plt.xlabel("Distance")

plt.ylabel("Frequency")

plt.title("Distribution of distance")

plt.show()

Count of carriers in the dataset

print(f"Average distance if there is a delay {data[data['DEP_DEL15'] ==

1]['DISTANCE'].values.mean()} miles")

print(f"Average distance if there is no delay {data[data['DEP_DEL15'] ==

0]['DISTANCE'].values.mean()} miles")

plt.figure(figsize=(15,5))

sns.countplot(x=data['OP_UNIQUE_CARRIER'], data=data)
plt.xlabel("Carriers")

plt.ylabel("Count")

plt.title("Count of unique carrier")

plt.show()

Count of origin and destination airport

plt.figure(figsize=(10,70))

sns.countplot(y=data['ORIGIN'], data=data, orient="h")

plt.xlabel("Airport")

plt.ylabel("Count")

plt.title("Count of Unique Origin Airports")

plt.show()

plt.figure(figsize=(10,70))

sns.countplot(y=data['DEST'], data=data, orient="h")

plt.xlabel("Airport")

plt.ylabel("Count")

plt.title("Count of Unique Destination Airports")

plt.show()

data = data.rename(columns={'DEP_DEL15':'TARGET'})
Encoding the categorical variable

def label_encoding(categories):

#To perform mapping of categorical features

categories = list(set(list(categories.values)))

mapping = {}

for idx in range(len(categories)):

mapping[categories[idx]] = idx

return mapping

data['OP_UNIQUE_CARRIER'] =

data['OP_UNIQUE_CARRIER'].map(label_encoding(data['OP_UNIQUE_CARRIER'])

data['ORIGIN'] = data['ORIGIN'].map(label_encoding(data['ORIGIN']))

data['DEST'] = data['DEST'].map(label_encoding(data['DEST']))

data.head()

data['TARGET'].value_counts()

X = data.drop(['MONTH','TARGET'], axis=1)

y = data[['TARGET']].values

# Splitting Train-set and Test-set

X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test= train_test_split(X, y, test_size=0.2, random_state=41)

# Splitting Train-set and Validation-set

X_train, X_val, y_train, y_val = train_test_split(X_train, y_train, test_size=0.25,

random_state=41)

Choosing the evaluation metric

# Formula to get accuracy

def get_accuracy(y_true, y_preds):

# Getting score of confusion matrix

true_negative, false_positive, false_negative, true_positive = confusion_matrix(y_true,

y_preds).ravel()

# Calculating accuracy

accuracy = (true_positive + true_negative)/(true_negative + false_positive +

false_negative + true_positive)

return accuracy

Creating some baseline models

#__Logistic Regression__

from sklearn.linear_model import LogisticRegression

lr = LogisticRegression(random_state=0).fit(X_train, y_train)

#__ CatBoostClassifier __

# Initialize CatBoostClassifier

catboost = CatBoostClassifier(random_state=0)
catboost.fit(X_train, y_train, verbose=False)

#__ naïve bayes__

gnb = GaussianNB()

gnb.fit(X_train, y_train)

#__ RandomForestClassifier __

rf = RandomForestClassifier(random_state=0)

rf.fit(X_train, y_train)

#__KNNClassifier__

knn = KNeighborsClassifier(n_neighbors=2)

knn.fit(X_train, y_train)

Evaluation of accuracy on validation dataset

models = [lr, catboost, gnb, rf, knn]

acc = []

for model in models:

preds_val = model.predict(X_val)

accuracy = get_accuracy(y_val, preds_val)

acc.append(accuracy)

model_name = ['Logistic Regression', 'Catboost', 'Naive Bayes', 'Random Forest', 'KNN']

accuracy = dict(zip(model_name, acc))

plt.figure(figsize=(15,5))

ax = sns.barplot(x = list(accuracy.keys()), y = list(accuracy.values()))

for p, value in zip(ax.patches, list(accuracy.values())):

_x = p.get_x() + p.get_width() / 2

_y = p.get_y() + p.get_height() + 0.008

ax.text(_x, _y, round(value, 3), ha="center")

plt.xlabel("Models")

plt.ylabel("Accuracy")

plt.title("Model vs. Accuracy")

plt.show()
 CHAPTER 6

FINDINGS, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Raw Dataset

Fig 6.1 Instance of Dataset

 Fig 6.2 -Importing necessary libraries

Fig 6.3-Loading the data

Data Format
• MONTH - Month
• DAY_OF_MONTH - Day of Month
• DAY_OF_WEEK - Day of Week
• OP_UNIQUE_CARRIER - Unique Carrier Code
• ORIGIN - Origin airport location
• DEST - Destination airport location
• DEP_TIME - Actual Departure Time (local time: hhmm)
• DEP_DEL15 - Departure Delay Indicator, 15 Minutes or More (1=Yes, 0=No)
[TARGET VARIABLE]
• DISTANCE - Distance between airports (miles)
Fig 6.4- data format

Data Preprocessing
Fig 6.5

Fig 6.6
Fig 6.7

Fig 6.8
 Exploratory data analysis

Fig 6.9

Fig 6.10
Fig 6.11- count of carriers in the dataset
Fig 6.11- count of origin and destination airport
Fig 6.11- count of origin and destination airport
Fig 6.12- count of origin and destination airport
 Modelling

Fig 6.13

Fig 6.14- encoding the categorical variable

Fig 6.15
Fig 6.16

Fig 6.17- choosing the evaluation metric

Creating some baseline models

Fig 6.18- Logistic regression

Fig 6.19- catboost classifier

Fig 6.20- Naïve bayes

Fig 6.21- Random forest classifier

Fig 6.22- KNN classifier

Fig 6.23- Evaluation of accuracy on validation dataset
Conclusion

In concluding our study on predicting flight delays, it's evident that while our models

exhibit a level of usefulness, they fall short of achieving precision and recall rates

exceeding 50%. This somewhat disappointing performance can be attributed to the

complexity of the factors influencing flight delays, many of which are beyond the scope

of the data we've utilized. The inherent unpredictability of issues like mechanical

problems and adverse weather conditions presents a significant challenge to accurately

forecasting delays so far in advance.

Despite these challenges, it's noteworthy that our models have surpassed baseline

performance and have demonstrated comparable results to previous research endeavors.

This is particularly commendable considering that we've often utilized less detailed

information and have sought to generalize our findings across a wider range of airports.

Although our models may not provide foolproof predictions, they still offer valuable

insights into the likelihood of flight delays. By identifying patterns and trends in

historical data, our models can effectively highlight which flights are more prone to

delays, thus enabling airlines and travelers to make more informed decisions.

Looking ahead, there are several avenues for enhancing the performance of our

predictive models. One crucial aspect is gaining a deeper understanding of the

significance of various features, particularly in the context of logistic regression. By

discerning which features play the most influential role in predicting delays, we can

refine our models and potentially uncover new variables that may have been

overlooked.
Furthermore, addressing issues such as data leakage, where inadvertent inclusion of

certain columns may skew results, is paramount. By implementing robust checks and

balances to detect and mitigate data leakage, we can ensure the integrity and accuracy

of our predictions.

In summary, while our models may not be perfect, they represent a significant step

forward in the realm of flight delay prediction. By continuing to refine and improve

upon our methodologies, we can strive towards more accurate and reliable predictions,

ultimately benefiting airlines, travelers, and the aviation industry as a whole.

Future Scope

In the future, we plan to make our flight delay analysis model better in several ways:

1. Use Real-Time Data: We want to include real-time data like current weather

conditions, air traffic, and runway availability. This will help our model give more

accurate and up-to-date predictions.

2. Advanced Machine Learning: We will try more advanced machine learning

techniques, such as gradient boosting and neural networks, to improve our model's

accuracy.

3. Improve Features: We will focus on finding and using the most important factors

(features) that affect flight delays. This will help make our predictions more reliable.

4. Seasonal and Regional Variations: We will create models that account for different

patterns in different seasons and regions. This will help us provide more precise

predictions for specific times and places.

5. Understand Causes: By looking into why delays happen, not just when they happen,

we can make our model smarter and more effective.

 6. Make It Easy to Understand: We will work on making the model's predictions easier

to understand for everyone. This might include clear explanations and visual aids.

7. Support for Decision-Making: Our model will be integrated into systems used by

airlines and airports to help them make better decisions and reduce delays.

8. Ethical and Fair: We will make sure our model is fair and does not have biases. We

will check and correct any issues to ensure it treats all flights equally.

9. Continuous Improvement: We will keep an eye on how our model performs and

make regular updates to improve it over time.

10. Backend and Frontend Development: We will also work on both the backend (the

technical infrastructure) and the frontend (the user interface) of our model. This

means creating a strong system for processing data and training models, as well as

designing easy-to-use dashboards and tools for users.

By working on these areas, we aim to make our flight delay analysis model more accurate,

user-friendly, and helpful for airlines and passengers alike.

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 List of Figures

S No. Description Page No.

1 Fig 1: Anaconda Distribution

2 Fig 2: Matplotlib Images

3 Fig 3: Use Case Diagram

4 Fig 4: Class Diagram

5 Fig 5: Sequence Diagram

6 Fig 6: Collaboration Diagram

7 Fig 7: Activity diagram

8 Fig 8:State Chart Diagram

9 Fig 9: Implementation

10 Fig 10: Instance of Dataset

11 Fig 11: Importing Necessary Libraries

12 Fig 12: Data Formatting

13 Fig 13: Data Preprocessing – 1

14 Fig 14: Data Preprocessing – 2

15 Fig 15: Data Preprocessing – 3

16 Fig 16: Data Preprocessing – 4

17 Fig 17: Count of carriers in the dataset

18 Fig 18: Count of Origin and Destination Of Airport

19 Fig 19: Entering the Categorical Variable

20 Fig 20: Choosing the Evaluation Metric

21 Fig 21:Logistic regression

22 Fig 22:Catboost Classifier

23 Fig 23:Naïve Bayes

24 Fig 24: Random Forest Classifier

25 Fig 25: KNN Classifier

26 Fig 26: Evaluation of accuracy on validation dataset