Professional Documents
Culture Documents
qb24q1_slides
qb24q1_slides
1
Sustained global growth in 1Q 2024, amid improvement in regional trade
Real GDP Growth1 Global Growth Developments
Annual change (%)
4Q23 1Q24
6.5 Sustained global growth,
5.5 5.7 5.3 as resilient labour
4.9 5.2 5.0 5.1
3.4
markets continued to
3.1 3.0
2.2 2.2
2.7 support consumption
0.1 0.4 activities.
TW PH CN ID KR US SG EA
Recovery in regional
Regional Trade Growth
trade activities, supported
Annual change (%) by both E&E and non-
4Q23 1Q24
E&E industries.
16.8
12.9
3.3 8.3
6.9 5.7 4.8 1.5 5.8 1.4 Headline and core
-1.2 -0.2 -8.3 -7.1 inflation continued to
-3.9
-10.7 trend downward.
VN TW KR PH CN TH SG ID
Note: 1 GDP for the first quarter of 2024 are advanced or preliminary estimates except for Philippines, China, and Indonesia.
² Export growth is calculated based on year-on-year (YoY) growth of aggregate monthly exports for the quarter, compared to prior publication, which calculated growth based on average monthly YoY growth for the quarter.
Sources: National authorities, International Monetary Fund, Bank Negara Malaysia estimates
2
Malaysia’s GDP registered a higher growth of 4.2% in 1Q 2024
Monthly Real GDP Growth (Annual change, %) Lower agriculture production amid
hot weather conditions
Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24
3.4 3.1 2.3 4.8 5.0 2.9
3
Growth underpinned by stronger private sector expenditure amid higher
growth in most sectors
Demand-Side Supply-Side
Annual Change (%) Annual Change (%)
Construction
4Q23 -52.9 Net Exports 4Q23 3.6
Faster progress of civil engineering projects and
Slower contraction amid the recovery in goods and
stronger support from special trade and
services exports 1Q24 11.9
1Q24 -24.5 residential activities
4
Improvement in current account surplus
Current Account Foreign Direct Investment
RM billion RM billion
4Q23 Current Account (% of GDP) 19.6 4Q23
1Q24: 3.5%
1Q24 30.8 32.0 4Q23: 0.2%
1Q24
13.7
16.2
7.5
0.9 0.3 5.5
-2.2 2.9 2.6
-7.4 -7.3 -8.8
-0.03
-20.3 -1.6
Current Account Goods Services Primary Secondary Total Equity Injections Reinvestment Debt Instruments
Balance Income Income of Earnings
Narrower primary income deficit and secondary income turned Net FDI inflows amid continued equity injections and a
into surplus turnaround in reinvested earnings.
Higher goods surplus as exports level exceeded imports FDI was mainly channelled into the non-financial services
Narrower services deficit amid higher tourist arrivals and mining sub-sectors
5
Most forward-looking indicators point to continued growth for the
Malaysian economy
Global Composite & MY Manufacturing PMI1 Global Semiconductor Sales & MY E&E Export International Airport Passenger2
Global, 52.1
Global, 15.2
11.7
’15-’19 avg.: 8.1%
Expansionary: >50
1Q22 3Q22 1Q23 3Q23 1Q24 1Q22 3Q22 1Q23 3Q23 1Q24 1Q22 3Q22 1Q23 3Q23 1Q24
2.7
1Q22 3Q22 1Q23 3Q23 Jan-Feb 24 1Q22 3Q22 1Q23 3Q23 1Q24 1Q22 3Q22 1Q23 3Q23 1Q24
6
Positive turnaround in exports performance in 1Q 2024
Moving forward, exports to steadily improve underpinned by improving external demand and continued inbound tourism
Gross Exports Growth Key factors supporting Malaysia’s real exports growth in 2024
Note: f Forecast
Sources: Department of Statistics Malaysia, IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2024) and World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS)
7
Household spending continues to anchor growth
…supported by continued wage and Consumer spending to improve going
Higher household spending…
employment growth forward
8
Implementation of new and existing projects supported investment activities
Stronger growth in capital Going forward, investments will be supported …and realisation of approved domestic and
expenditure by key infrastructure projects… foreign investments
Real Gross Fixed Capital Formation Total value of construction work done MIDA Total Investment Approvals
Annual change (%), ppt contribution
RM billion
RM Billion
50 Public Sector Private Sector Overall
Avg. 2011-19: 5.5%
36.8 400 Domestic Investment
40 33.4 34.1 Foreign Investment
12
Other Assets
Machinery and equipment 30 350
Total 330
Structures 9.6 309
10 GFCF 20
300
268
10
8 0 250
211
6.4 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24
200
6 167
Key Infrastructure Projects
ECRL MyDIGITAL 5G 150
4 RM50.0 billion RM16.5 billion
2018-27 2021-31
80% as of Feb’24 100
64% as of Mar’24
2 Pan Borneo
RTS 50
Sabah Phase 1a
RM3.7 billion
RM16.0 billion
0 2021-26 0
2016-24
1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 70% as of Mar’24 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
88% as of Feb’24
9
Growth outlook is subject to risks from both external and domestic factors
Upside risks
▲ Greater spillover from the tech upcycle
10
Headline inflation remained moderate in 1Q 2024
■ Headline inflation increased slightly driven mainly by higher water tariffs and service tax on high electricity consumption
■ Core inflation declined driven by lower inflation for food-related items amid stable cost and demand conditions
5.0
4.5
4.0 0.6
3.5 0.4
3.0 0.4
2011-’19 Avg1.: 2.5
2.5 Headline 2.2 2.0 0.6 0.6 Others
0.5
2.0 Housing and
Core 2.0 1.8 1.9
2.0 0.5 0.6 0.7 utilities
1.5 1.7 Food and
1.6 non-alcoholic
1.0 0.6 0.6 0.5
beverages
0.5 Fuel
0.0
Jan-23
Jun-23
Jul-23
Jan-24
Feb-23
Mar-23
Feb-24
Mar-24
2022
Nov-23
Dec-23
Aug-23
Sep-23
May-23
Oct-23
Apr-23
1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24
Note: 1 Average of past inflation is calculated based on monthly frequency from Jan-11 to Dec-19
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia and Bank Negara Malaysia estimates Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia, Bank Negara Malaysia estimates
11
Going forward, the inflation outlook will be subject to policy factors, global
commodity prices and financial market developments
Headline Inflation
Annual Change, % Balance of risk to inflation outlook in 2024 and 2025
2024f
2022 Upside risks
3.5
3.3
2021 2023 ▲ Higher prices from the potential review of
fuel subsidies
2.5 2.5
▲ Higher input costs due to exchange
2.0 rate developments
Core Inflation ▲ Higher global commodity prices amid worsening
Annual Change, % geopolitical tensions and weather disruptions
2022 2023
2024f
12
The OPR was maintained at 3.00% at the May MPC meeting
13
Updated
3% 3.0% DXY2
-6%
-12%
29-Dec 22-Jan 15-Feb 10-Mar 3-Apr 27-Apr
14
14
Coordinated actions to encourage more consistent flows into the FX market
have led to positive outcomes
The Government and BNM have taken coordinated actions to Positive outcomes have been observed since these efforts
encourage consistent flows into the FX market (period: 26 Feb - 15 May 2024, vs 29 Dec 2023 - 26 Feb 2024)
Ringgit’s performance and FX market liquidity have improved
Encourage repatriation and conversion of
foreign investment income by GLCs and GLICs ▲ Ringgit performance against the USD:
+1.6% (prior: -3.9%)
Note: 1NEER is an index measuring ringgit’s performance against currencies of Malaysia’s major trading partners
15
Updated
Movement of 10-Year Local Currency Sovereign Bond Yields (in bps) Performance of Equity Indices (% Change)
60 56.0 JP
49.4 TW
50
MY
40 CN
32.1
30 SG
PH
20 17.9 17.0
11.0 KR
10 ID
0 TH
1
1Q 2024 Year to date
-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Annual change (%) / Cont. to growth (ppt) Annual change (%) / Cont. to growth (ppt) Annual change (%) / Cont. to growth (ppt)
Outstanding corporate bonds Working Capital Investment-related Houses Cars Securities
Outstanding business loans Others2 Total Personal use Others3 Total
5.7 6.2
Outstanding household loans 4.9 5.1 5.1 5.4
Credit to the Private Non-Financial Sector 3.7
2.2 1.9
0.6
5.2
4.8
4.1 4.3 0.7
3.7 0.9 1Q-23 2Q-23 3Q-23 4Q-23 1Q-24
1Q-23 2Q-23 3Q-23 4Q-23 1Q-24
0.9 1.1 1.4
1.0 1.1
0.6 0.6
0.2 Loan applications remained broadly sustained reflecting continued credit demand
2.7 2.9 3.1 Business Loan Application Levels Household Loan Application Levels
2.5 2.6
Of which, SMEs:
RM136.2 bn RM81.1 bn
RM222.1 bn
1Q-23 2Q-23 3Q-23 4Q-23 1Q-24
4Q23: RM160.8 bn 4Q23: RM82.6 bn 4Q23: RM240 bn
Notes:
1 Comprises loans to households and non-financial corporations from the banking system and development financial institutions (DFIs), and corporate bonds issued by non-financial corporations (including short-term papers)
2 Includes loans for the purchase of securities, mergers and acquisitions, credit cards, and other purposes
3 Includes loans for the purchase of non-residential property, credit cards, and other purposes
17
Banks remain well-positioned to support financial intermediation
Strong capital and liquidity positions enable Loans with higher credit risk have Prudent provisioning despite low
banks to sustain financing to the real economy further declined impairment levels
As at March 2024
Impaired Loans Ratio1 & Loan Loss
Stage 2 Loans Ratio, %
Coverage Ratio (including regulatory
reserve), %
18.3% Total Capital Ratio
(Dec-23: 18.8%) 7.6
7.5 Loan loss IL ratio:
7.4 coverage (LLC) ratio Household Sector
Overall gross impaired IL ratio:
7.2 loans (IL) ratio Business Sector
7.0
120.9
LLC ratio 2013-2019 average: 109.5%
1Impaired loans ratio is based on loans classified as Stage 3 under MFRS 9. Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23 Mar-24 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23 Mar-24
Source: Bank Negara Malaysia
18
Summary
19
Additional Information
24
28
Add. Info
1
Real GDP Share, % 2023 2024 Real GDP Share, % 2023 2024
(% YoY) (2023) (% YoY) (2023) 1Q 4Q 1Q
1Q 4Q 1Q
Domestic Demand
93.9 4.8 4.9 6.1
Services 59.2 7.1 4.1 4.7 (Excluding Stocks)
Private Sector 76.2 5.8 4.1 5.7
Consumption 60.7 6.1 4.2 4.7
Manufacturing 23.4 3.2 -0.3 1.9
Investment 15.5 4.7 4.0 9.2
Public Sector 17.8 -0.2 7.4 8.4
Agriculture 6.4 1.4 1.9 1.6
Consumption 13.2 -2.0 5.8 7.3
Investment 4.6 5.7 11.3 11.5
Mining and Quarrying 6.2 1.6 3.5 5.7 Net Exports of Goods
4.4 71.2 -52.9 -24.5
and Services
Exports 66.1 -2.9 -7.9 5.2
Construction 3.6 7.4 3.6 11.9
Imports 61.7 -6.7 -2.6 8.0
Real GDP 100.0 5.5 2.9 4.2 Real GDP 100.0 5.5 2.9 4.2
Note: Numbers may not add up due to rounding and exclusion of import duties component. Note: Numbers may not add up due to rounding and exclusion of stocks.
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia
25
Add. Info
2
Other rec. Remittances rec. Other pay. Remittances pay. Net Secondary Income
Remittances receipts,
CAGR‘15-’19: 3.0%
20 Secondary income balance
turned positive in 1Q 2024
11.8
7.2 8.3
0
0.3
-2.0 -2.2
-9.2 -10.5 -11.5
-20 -11.8
-14.9
-40
Note: Other secondary income includes general government-related receipts and payments such as grants, compensation and fees.
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysua
26
Add. Info
3
Outflows in portfolio and direct investment account more than offset inflows from other investment
2023 2024
RM billion
4Q Year 1Q Continued DIA outflows amid
moderating FDI inflows
Direct Investment 5.2 -0.2 -6.0
27
Add. Info
4
Resident Flows
NR Flows
20 12.9 Net Portfolio Flows
Factors affecting portfolio investment flows in 1Q 2024
10 17.8
Higher investments in equity and
0
4.0 continued investments in debt
-4.9 -10.0 securities abroad by resident investors
-16.3
-10 -21.2
-6.0
Liquidation of domestic debt securities
-20
-2.5 by non-resident investors
-13.5
-23.7
-30
-29.8
-40
1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24
28
Add. Info
L
5
Favourable external debt profile and adequate buffers to
weather external shocks
Favourable external debt profile… …with large net foreign-currency assets … … and further supported by
58.2
Medium and Long-Term
Sufficient international reserves*
to facilitate international
transactions
… to finance 5.4 months of imports of
1,049.9 goods & services and is 1.0 time total
short-term external debt as at 30 April
2024
Short-Term
41.8
29
Add. Info
6
Regional currency performance against US dollar Regional currency performance against US dollar
YTD as at 15 May 2024 (26 Feb 2024 – 15 May 2024)
MYR 1.6%
INR -0.4%
CNY -0.4%
CNY -1.8%
30