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A Forest Economy for the Future: Generating Social

and Economic Dividends From More Sustainable,
Circular Sources - Dalberg

Leandro Berg

Forests are both an economic and environmental lifeline. It is possible to both increase use of
products derived from them, while at the same time protecting biodiversity and forest cover.

Is the use of forest products likely to maintain forest cover over time, and thus decrease overall
environmental impacts? If forest management is sustainable, protects local biodiversity and promotes
a polyculture use of forest assets, the answer is yes.

It is possible to simultaneously increase the economic use of forests and the forest cover. The key lies
in sustainable approaches that move away from monoculture production and towards investing in
more diverse offerings that use the full breadth of forest resources. By expanding the demand,
production, and use of sustainable forest products, forest growing stock is stabilized – and the
destruction of unsustainable timber sources can be prevented.

In countries like Canada and Colombia, programs are already in place that protect biodiversity,
support regeneration, and discourage the cultivation of a single crop in broad swaths of land.
Canada’s publicly owned forests, which make up about 91% of the country’s forest land, have been
under sustainable forest management for decades. Comprehensive laws, regulations and policies have
been put in place to ensure all forest areas that are harvested on public lands are replanted or allowed
to naturally regenerate. This has contributed to the declining rate of deforestation in the country over
the past three decades.1 Colombia is investing in a scheme for sustainable forest concessions that
allow for previously illegal timber businesses to go beyond exploitative practices and invest in
sustainable land use management. These programs have shown that when sustainable supply of forest
stocks is in place, and that supply is well-regulated, a viable forest economy can exist.

In addition to creating economic value, the use of forest products presents multiple job creation
opportunities along the value chain. For instance, in the construction sector, jobs can be created that
are related to the harvesting, processing, replanting and regeneration to construction and the actual
sale of supplemental forestry services. In Canada, employment is created through regeneration
practices, which have opened up job opportunities that complement the forestry industry’s
contribution to the country’s GDP, which in 2017 was $24.6 billion dollars. Further, it is estimated
that every job created in forestry generates an additional 1.5 to 2.5 jobs in the economy, since a major
share of a worker’s income goes to purchasing goods and services.

The forestry sector also presents an opportunity for equitable, community-based development. In
Acre, Brazil, government support helped create the Cooperative of Community Forest Producers
(COOPERFLORESTA), a community-based forestry management co-op with 200 members who

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generate income by producing timber on their individual plots, and collectively harvesting and
marketing their products to the plywood industry. In addition to timber sales, the co-op’s profits are
significantly supplemented by selling profitable forestry services (e.g., preparation of forest
management plans) provided to non-members in the forestry industry.2

Quantifying the Forest Economy

While impressive, the basic facts about forests are not unexpected: They are home to over 60,000
species of trees globally and provide a safe haven for 80% of amphibian species, 75% of bird species,
and 68% of mammal species globally. Forests capture carbon emissions, filter the air, and in tropical
places, have roots that serve as nurseries for numerous fish species. Tree roots in marine habitats help
trap sediments, protecting the habitats of many more species, including seagrass beds and coral reefs.

What is less apparent is forests’ contributions to social and economic growth around the world. Forest
economies support more than 45 million direct and indirect jobs globally and have a total
contribution of more than $1.3 trillion to the world economy.3 The global timber sector alone employs
13.2 million people and is worth $600 billion each year.4

The holistic value of forests differs on a country-by-country basis. In the Congo Basin, 80 million
people depend on the forest ecosystem for their for livelihood, food, energy, medicine, and water.5 In
the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Virunga national park has an annual economic value of $49
million and is the source of more than 45,000 jobs.6In Ethiopia, 13% of the national GDP is
dependent on forests, with half the country’s population employed in the forest sector.7 The forest
sector employed 209,940 Canadians in 2017 alone.8 In 2011, the forestry sector contributed $1.8
billion to Colombia’s economy, amounting to 0.6% of the country’s GDP.9In Guatemala, the forest
economy’s contribution is about 2.5% of the country’s GDP.10 And timber processing in three African

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cities Yaoundé, Douala, and Kinshasa — has an annual revenue of about $15 million and employs
5,000 individuals.11

The Link Between Development and Deforestation

Forests are a lifeline to ecological health and the well-being of communities around the world – but
their ability to continue to provide these benefits is eroding. Growing populations, rapid urbanization,
and poverty levels are contributing to a rise in deforestation. Africa has lost 4 million hectares of
forest area per year in 2010–2020 — the highest net loss of forest area amongst all continents. And
reports indicate thatAfrica’s rate of net forest loss has been increasing since 1990.12

If not halted, current deforestation patterns can spur environmental change that will have significant
effects on the global economy. According to a report by WWF, if the world continues on its current
path, environmental degradation can cause a cumulative loss of $9.9 trillion by 2050.13 The United
States alone will lose $83 billion from its economy each year by 2050 due to the continued
destruction of natural assets. This economic shift will cause global price hikes in commodities such as
timber, cotton, oil seeds, fruits and vegetables, changes which will have the most serious impact for
emerging markets across Africa, Asia, and Latin America.14

A significant threat to forests stems from individuals and communities looking to find and sustain
livelihoods. These individuals and communities include smallholder farmers who make up 70% of the
African population and rely on land and farming to make a living.15Without other viable options for
generating income and growing food, forests will continue to suffer.

The fracturing relationship between humans and the natural world is further depicted in the increase
in zoonotic diseases. As a result of extensive forest land conversion, about 70 percent of forests
globally are now within one kilometer of a forest edge and are exposed to further fragmentation. The
increased contact with nature can expose people to a wide range of animal diseases. In fact,
approximately three to four new infectious diseases emerge each year, most of which originate from
wildlife. Over the last 30 years, approximately 60-70 percent of the new diseases that emerged in
humans had a zoonotic origin.

Research has linked the Ebola outbreaks over the past decade to increased deforestation and the
SARS epidemic to human contact with infected palm civets and raccoon dogs due to unsustainable
wildlife consumption patterns. Covid-19, linked to a disease prevalent in horseshoe bats, is the latest
example of this type of spillover and has demonstrated the grave consequences of unregulated
human-wildlife interactions.

The pandemic has also catalyzed an economic crisis that intersects with forest use. The global
economy shrank by 4.4% in 2020 alone, the worst decline since the Great Depression of the 1930s
and far worse than the global financial crisis of 2008. The associated loss of employment led to a 10%
drop in workers’ income by September of 2020, reaching a cumulative loss of over $3.5 trillion. This
crisis has made a shift to better forest management even more of an imperative: It is estimated that

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20 million people could be looking for new economic opportunities as a result of the pandemic.16 In
the absence of viable work, many people may have to resort to subsistence agriculture and using
forest firewood to sustain livelihoods, thus accelerating deforestation.

And these numbers are projected to grow: Africa’s population is projected to triple to 1.3 billion by
2050). This jump will come with a greater demand for not only jobs, but also food, agriculture, and a
built environment – all threats to the health and sustainability of forests.

A Solution for the Future: Developing Forest-Based, Circular

Bioeconomies

By 2030, sustainable management has the potential to curb the effects of deforestation, while creating
$230 billion in business opportunities and 16 million jobs.17 The key lies in realizing the significant
opportunities for the development and nurturing of forest-based circular bioeconomies, which can be
interpreted as economies that place biological resources in the center of their production cycle.
Bioeconomies take into account the well-being and protection of natural assets alongside the potential
economic uses of forest resources, and contain pathways to tackle industrial waste, over exploitation
and emission challenges.

Africa’s rapidly growing construction sector presents one noteworthy opportunity to build a forest-
based, circular bioeconomy. Eighty percent of the buildings needed in Africa by 2050 have not yet
been constructed.18 Manufacturing of commonly used building materials such as cement, iron, and
steel contributes to 11% of total emissions from construction. As a result, Africa’s upcoming building
boom will increase carbon emissions significantly.

There is an opportunity to consider and implement sustainable design and use of alternative building
materials such as wood, which not only result in lower carbon emissions but also continue to store
carbon. The use of wood products in construction — which mainly utilizes mass timber — can
sequester even more carbon than slow-growing mature trees. This practice is becoming popular in the
Global North. However, the use of wood remains underleveraged across the African continent, even
though Africa produced 54% more wood and had four times more forest area than the European
Union in 2019. Still, the export value of EU forest products was 17 times greater than in Africa in the
same year – $100 billion compared to $6 billion.19

Getting Closer to a Forest-Based, Circular Bioeconomy: Three

Fundamental Actions to Consider

With significant biodiversity loss of terrestrial assets looming, understanding opportunities in

sustainable forestry — and making targeted investments in the area — will be critical to maintaining
biodiversity, combatting the effects of climate change, and meeting human needs. The following
actions are building blocks to consider in the quest to nourish forest-based, circular bioeconomies.

Understand the trends in production and consumption patterns: It is crucial to understand trends in
the global forest economy, identify the opportunities and gaps around developing a global sustainable

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forest economy, and develop the investment case for sustainable forest products.

This involves conducting in-depth analysis, categorization, and prioritization of forest products across
wood and non-wood offerings. Forming an understanding of current and future forest products’
market size, growth, consumption, and production trends is also key to building out a well-rounded
understanding of current and future socio-economic impacts of a sustainable forest economy, while
also highlighting best practices in establishing and developing a forest-based, circular bioeconomy.

Invest in coalition building among varying stakeholders:The forest economy is made up of a wide
range of stakeholders with contrasting interests, such as many indigenous communities that seek to
protect a way of life, and large, profit-driven private sector companies looking to share the same forest
resources. On another hand, a significant amount of the forestry industry worldwide is informal, and
illegal logging and poaching is a dominant aspect of the industry. Governments are increasingly
attempting to create formal and regulated markets that contribute to their climate commitments and
decrease poaching, creating a wide gap between what has been done in the past and a more
transparent and regulated future.20Just and equitable solutions that address land rights and
economic interests while addressing environmental degradation are crucial if forest-based, circular
economy investments are to succeed. Significant effort must be made to map the stakeholders
involved in the global forest economy and their specific interests. Such detailed information is a first,
necessary step towards creating space for consensus-building.

Increase financing for sustainable forestry projects: It is crucial to increase financial investments for
pilot projects in the sector that can help build a set of demonstrable projects to further catalyze
investments. Addressing the demand for food systems, the built environment, and employment
cannot continue in its current trajectory, otherwise, it will exacerbate the world’s existing
vulnerability to the effects of climate change.

The business case for the restoration and regeneration of forests across the globe is rising, as can be
seen from a recent report by World Resources Institute. Companies like BioCarbon Engineering and
Land Life Company are developing and deploying technology to facilitate restoration with more
efficiency and at lower costs. Businesses are also investing in the restoration, management and
harvesting of trees for timber and wood fibers on previously degraded land. Some companies are
beginning to invest in restored land to produce commercial goods or offset their carbon
footprint.Guyaki, a beverage company, uses the land it restores in the Atlantic forests to produce its
goods. Tentree – an apparel company and Ecosia – an online search engine, leverage their sales to
fund their restoration activities. Organizations like Brinkman and Associates and Fresh Coast Capital
are earning profits from managing restoration projects from start to finish on behalf of their clients.21
The carbon credit market can also be tapped to subsidize and promote regenerative practices and
green construction. For instance, Hudson Carbon, an organic farm focused on regenerative
agriculture in upstate New York, aims to sell carbon offsets directly from farms to interested bodies
and use these sales to cross-subsidize its operations. 22

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Forest-based, circular bioeconomies have the potential to help reverse the biodiversity loss our world
is experiencing today. All actors involved in the forest economy need to make significant investments
by supporting the transition of production and consumption trends towards sustainable outcomes,
building coalitions for equitable use, and increasing overall financing for sustainable forest-based
initiatives. Such efforts can pave the way for us to use our forest assets both as economic pillars and as
environmental safeguards.

MOKENA MAKEKA

PRINCIPAL, DALBERG ADVISORS

Mokena Makeka is a Principal at Dalberg Advisors and an accomplished architect and urbanist,
committed to social transformation and cities of spatial and ecological justice. He has led and worked
on various and complex construction projects, and advised and worked on projects in Lesotho,
Madagascar, Tanzania, South Africa and China.

1 Canada’s Forest-related Contributions to Sustainable Development, 2019

2 Small-scale forest enterprises in Latin America: unlocking their potential for sustainable livelihoods,

2018

3 Li, Y et al, the economic contribution of the world’s forest sector, 2019

4 https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/forests/brief/forests-generate-jobs-and-incomes

5 Congo Basin Forests., n.d.

6 The Economic Value of Virunga National Park, 2013

7 https://www.wri.org/insights/its-time-invest-ethiopias-forest-sector

8https://cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/pubwarehouse/pdfs/39336.pdf

9 https://preferredbynature.org/sourcinghub/timber/timber-colombia

10 https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/455661568720743044/pdf/Guatemala-s-Forest-

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Accounts-Link-Forest-Resources-with-the-Economy.pdf

11 Central Africa Congo Basin Timber, 2016

12 State of the World’s Forests report, 2020

13 Africa’s urban population to triple by 2050, 2020

14 WWF, Global Features: Assessing the global economic impacts of environmental change to support

policy making

15 Africa’s growth lies within smallholder farmers, 2018

16 Africa could lose 20 million jobs due to pandemic: AU study, 2020

17 WEF, New Nature Economy Report II, The Future of Nature and Businesses, 2020

18World Green Building Council, Africa Partners, 2020

19Forests News, Africa’s vast forest potential untapped, circular bioeconomy could help, 2021

20 https://www.rainforest-alliance.org/articles/what-is-sustainable-forestry; https://

news.mongabay.com/2020/12/colombia-sustainable-forestry-drive-boosts-biodiversity-
business/;https://www.euredd.efi.int/documents/15552/431687/
Economic+analysis+of+sustainable+community+forest+management+in+Colombia.PDF/0f73bdb3-
240d-a50b-1157-a1b38da57d37

21 WRI, The Business of Planting Trees: A growing investment opportunity, 2018

22 HudsonCarbon website, accessed July, 2021

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