MODELOS DE TENDEN

PROYECCIONES DE VENTAS
CATEDRÁTICO: DR. SAMUEL REYES GÓMEZ AUXILIA

CONSUMO COMBUSTIBLE POR PARTE DE UNA EMPRES

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Enero 15.5 20.4 26.9 36 52.1 64.4 82.3
Febrero 17.8 20.8 29.4 39 53.1 68.1 83.6
Marzo 18.1 22.2 29.9 42.2 56.5 68.5 85.5
Abril 20.5 24.1 32.4 44.3 58.4 72.3 91
Mayo 21.3 25.5 33.3 46.6 61.7 74.1 92.1
Junio 19.8 25.9 34.5 46.1 61 77.6 95.8
Julio 20.5 26.1 34.8 48.5 65.5 79.9 98.3
Agosto 22.3 27.5 39.1 52.6 71 86.7 102.2
Septiembre 22.9 25.8 39 52.2 68.1 84.4 101.5
Octubre 21.1 29.8 36.5 50.8 67.5 81.4 98.5
Noviembre 22 27.4 37.5 51.9 68.8 85.1 101.1
Diciembre 22.8 29.7 39.7 55.1 68.1 81.7 102.5

Calcule para esta base de datos.

a) Tendencia Lineal
b) Tendencia cuadrática.
c) Tendencia Exponencial.
e) Tendencia logarítmica.
f)Tendencia potencial.
f) Según el MSE cuál es el mejor modelo de tendencia.
g) Que modelo de descomposición de la serie de tiempo considera que es el adecuado para estos d
i) Sugiere usted otro mejor modelo de tendencia?
TENDENCIAS
S DE VENTAS
ÓMEZ AUXILIAR: MSc.NELSON DIAZ

UNA EMPRESA (TONELES SEMANALES)

2018 2019 2020 2021
102.7 122.2 145.8 170
102.2 121.4 144.4 176.3
104.7 125.6 145.2 174.2
108.9 129.7 148.6 176.1
112.2 133.6 153.7 185.3
109.7 137.5 157.9 182.7
113.5 143 169.7 197
120.4 149 184.2 216.1
134.6 149.9 163.2 192.2
116.7 139.5 155.4
120.6 147.7 168.9
124.9 154.7 178.3

cuado para estos datos?

 MODELOS DE TENDEN
PROYECCIONES DE VENTAS

CATEDRÁTICO: DR. SAMUEL REYES GÓMEZ AUXILIA

tiempo Toneles Pronóstico Error e^2
1 15.5 -3.8907 19.3907 375.999246 G
2 17.8 -2.5038 20.3038 412.244294
3 18.1 -1.1169 19.2169 369.289246
4 20.5 0.27 20.23 409.2529
5 21.3 1.6569 19.6431 385.851378
6 19.8 3.0438 16.7562 280.770238 250
7 20.5 4.4307 16.0693 258.222402
8 22.3 5.8176 16.4824 271.66951 200
9 22.9 7.2045 15.6955 246.34872
10 21.1 8.5914 12.5086 156.465074 150
f(x) = 1.38693034
11 22 9.9783 12.0217 144.521271
12 22.8 11.3652 11.4348 130.754651
100
13 20.4 12.7521 7.6479 58.4903744
14 20.8 14.139 6.661 44.368921
50
15 22.2 15.5259 6.6741 44.5436108
16 24.1 16.9128 7.1872 51.6558438
17 25.5 18.2997 7.2003 51.8443201 0
0 20 40
18 25.9 19.6866 6.2134 38.6063396
19 26.1 21.0735 5.0265 25.2657023
20 27.5 22.4604 5.0396 25.3975682
21 25.8 23.8473 1.9527 3.81303729
22 29.8 25.2342 4.5658 20.8465296
23 27.4 26.6211 0.7789 0.60668521
24 29.7 28.008 1.692 2.862864
25 26.9 29.3949 -2.4949 6.22452601
26 29.4 30.7818 -1.3818 1.90937124
27 29.9 32.1687 -2.2687 5.14699969
28 32.4 33.5556 -1.1556 1.33541136
29 33.3 34.9425 -1.6425 2.69780625
30 34.5 36.3294 -1.8294 3.34670436
31 34.8 37.7163 -2.9163 8.50480569
32 39.1 39.1032 -0.0032 1.024E-05
33 39 40.4901 -1.4901 2.22039801
34 36.5 41.877 -5.377 28.912129
35 37.5 43.2639 -5.7639 33.2225432
36 39.7 44.6508 -4.9508 24.5104206
37 36 46.0377 -10.0377 100.755421
38 39 47.4246 -8.4246 70.9738852
39 42.2 48.8115 -6.6115 43.7119323
40 44.3 50.1984 -5.8984 34.7911226
41 46.6 51.5853 -4.9853 24.8532161
42 46.1 52.9722 -6.8722 47.2271328
43 48.5 54.3591 -5.8591 34.3290528
44 52.6 55.746 -3.146 9.897316
45 52.2 57.1329 -4.9329 24.3335024
46 50.8 58.5198 -7.7198 59.595312
47 51.9 59.9067 -8.0067 64.1072449
48 55.1 61.2936 -6.1936 38.360681
49 52.1 62.6805 -10.5805 111.94698
50 53.1 64.0674 -10.9674 120.283863
51 56.5 65.4543 -8.9543 80.1794885
52 58.4 66.8412 -8.4412 71.2538574
53 61.7 68.2281 -6.5281 42.6160896
54 61 69.615 -8.615 74.218225
55 65.5 71.0019 -5.5019 30.2709036
56 71 72.3888 -1.3888 1.92876544
57 68.1 73.7757 -5.6757 32.2135705
58 67.5 75.1626 -7.6626 58.7154388
59 68.8 76.5495 -7.7495 60.0547502
60 68.1 77.9364 -9.8364 96.754765
61 64.4 79.3233 -14.9233 222.704883
62 68.1 80.7102 -12.6102 159.017144
63 68.5 82.0971 -13.5971 184.881128
64 72.3 83.484 -11.184 125.081856
65 74.1 84.8709 -10.7709 116.012287
66 77.6 86.2578 -8.6578 74.9575008
67 79.9 87.6447 -7.7447 59.9803781
68 86.7 89.0316 -2.3316 5.43635856
69 84.4 90.4185 -6.0185 36.2223422
70 81.4 91.8054 -10.4054 108.272349
71 85.1 93.1923 -8.0923 65.4853193
72 81.7 94.5792 -12.8792 165.873793
73 82.3 95.9661 -13.6661 186.762289
74 83.6 97.353 -13.753 189.145009
75 85.5 98.7399 -13.2399 175.294952
76 91 100.1268 -9.1268 83.2984782
77 92.1 101.5137 -9.4137 88.6177477
78 95.8 102.9006 -7.1006 50.4185204
79 98.3 104.2875 -5.9875 35.8501562
80 102.2 105.6744 -3.4744 12.0714554
81 101.5 107.0613 -5.5613 30.9280577
 82 98.5 108.4482 -9.9482 98.9666832
83 101.1 109.8351 -8.7351 76.301972
84 102.5 111.222 -8.722 76.073284
85 102.7 112.6089 -9.9089 98.1862992
86 102.2 113.9958 -11.7958 139.140898
87 104.7 115.3827 -10.6827 114.120079
88 108.9 116.7696 -7.8696 61.9306042
89 112.2 118.1565 -5.9565 35.4798922
90 109.7 119.5434 -9.8434 96.8925236
91 113.5 120.9303 -7.4303 55.2093581
92 120.4 122.3172 -1.9172 3.67565584
93 134.6 123.7041 10.8959 118.720637
94 116.7 125.091 -8.391 70.408881
95 120.6 126.4779 -5.8779 34.5497084
96 124.9 127.8648 -2.9648 8.79003904
97 122.2 129.2517 -7.0517 49.7264729
98 121.4 130.6386 -9.2386 85.35173
99 125.6 132.0255 -6.4255 41.2870502
100 129.7 133.4124 -3.7124 13.7819138
101 133.6 134.7993 -1.1993 1.43832049
102 137.5 136.1862 1.3138 1.72607044
103 143 137.5731 5.4269 29.4512436
104 149 138.96 10.04 100.8016
105 149.9 140.3469 9.5531 91.2617196
106 139.5 141.7338 -2.2338 4.98986244
107 147.7 143.1207 4.5793 20.9699885
108 154.7 144.5076 10.1924 103.885018
109 145.8 145.8945 -0.0945 0.00893025
110 144.4 147.2814 -2.8814 8.30246596
111 145.2 148.6683 -3.4683 12.0291049
112 148.6 150.0552 -1.4552 2.11760704
113 153.7 151.4421 2.2579 5.09811241
114 157.9 152.829 5.071 25.715041
115 169.7 154.2159 15.4841 239.757353
116 184.2 155.6028 28.5972 817.799848
117 163.2 156.9897 6.2103 38.5678261
118 155.4 158.3766 -2.9766 8.86014756
119 168.9 159.7635 9.1365 83.4756323
120 178.3 161.1504 17.1496 294.10878
121 170 162.5373 7.4627 55.6918913
122 176.3 163.9242 12.3758 153.160426
123 174.2 165.3111 8.8889 79.0125432
124 176.1 166.698 9.402 88.397604
125 185.3 168.0849 17.2151 296.359668
126 182.7 169.4718 13.2282 174.985275
127 197 170.8587 26.1413 683.367566
128 216.1 172.2456 43.8544 1923.2084
129 192.2 173.6325 18.5675 344.752056
MSE 111.668993
TENDENCIAS
S DE VENTAS

ÓMEZ AUXILIAR: MSc.NELSON DIAZ

GRÁFICA

Toneles
250

200

f(x) = 1.38693034436494 x − 5.27760416666666

150

100

50

0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
 MODELOS DE TENDEN
PROYECCIONES DE VENTAS

CATEDRÁTICO: DR. SAMUEL REYES GÓMEZ AUXILIA

tiempo Toneles Pronóstico Error e^2
1 15.5 16.7225 -1.2225 1.49450625 G
2 17.8 17.1432 0.6568 0.43138624
3 18.1 17.5791 0.5209 0.27133681
4 20.5 18.0302 2.4698 6.09991204
5 21.3 18.4965 2.8035 7.85961225
6 19.8 18.978 0.822 0.675684 250
7 20.5 19.4747 1.0253 1.05124009
8 22.3 19.9866 2.3134 5.35181956 200
9 22.9 20.5137 2.3863 5.69442769 f(x) = 0.007608305249802
10 21.1 21.056 0.044 0.001936 150
11 22 21.6135 0.3865 0.14938225
12 22.8 22.1862 0.6138 0.37675044
100
13 20.4 22.7741 -2.3741 5.63635081
14 20.8 23.3772 -2.5772 6.64195984
50
15 22.2 23.9955 -1.7955 3.22382025
16 24.1 24.629 -0.529 0.279841
17 25.5 25.2777 0.2223 0.04941729 0
0 20 40
18 25.9 25.9416 -0.0416 0.00173056
19 26.1 26.6207 -0.5207 0.27112849
20 27.5 27.315 0.185 0.034225
21 25.8 28.0245 -2.2245 4.94840025
22 29.8 28.7492 1.0508 1.10418064
23 27.4 29.4891 -2.0891 4.36433881
24 29.7 30.2442 -0.5442 0.29615364
25 26.9 31.0145 -4.1145 16.9291102
26 29.4 31.8 -2.4 5.76
27 29.9 32.6007 -2.7007 7.29378049
28 32.4 33.4166 -1.0166 1.03347556
29 33.3 34.2477 -0.9477 0.89813529
30 34.5 35.094 -0.594 0.352836
31 34.8 35.9555 -1.1555 1.33518025
32 39.1 36.8322 2.2678 5.14291684
33 39 37.7241 1.2759 1.62792081
34 36.5 38.6312 -2.1312 4.54201344
35 37.5 39.5535 -2.0535 4.21686225
36 39.7 40.491 -0.791 0.625681
37 36 41.4437 -5.4437 29.6338697
38 39 42.4116 -3.4116 11.6390146
39 42.2 43.3947 -1.1947 1.42730809
40 44.3 44.393 -0.093 0.008649
41 46.6 45.4065 1.1935 1.42444225
42 46.1 46.4352 -0.3352 0.11235904
43 48.5 47.4791 1.0209 1.04223681
44 52.6 48.5382 4.0618 16.4982192
45 52.2 49.6125 2.5875 6.69515625
46 50.8 50.702 0.098 0.009604
47 51.9 51.8067 0.0933 0.00870489
48 55.1 52.9266 2.1734 4.72366756
49 52.1 54.0617 -1.9617 3.84826689
50 53.1 55.212 -2.112 4.460544
51 56.5 56.3775 0.1225 0.01500625
52 58.4 57.5582 0.8418 0.70862724
53 61.7 58.7541 2.9459 8.67832681
54 61 59.9652 1.0348 1.07081104
55 65.5 61.1915 4.3085 18.5631723
56 71 62.433 8.567 73.393489
57 68.1 63.6897 4.4103 19.4507461
58 67.5 64.9616 2.5384 6.44347456
59 68.8 66.2487 2.5513 6.50913169
60 68.1 67.551 0.549 0.301401
61 64.4 68.8685 -4.4685 19.9674922
62 68.1 70.2012 -2.1012 4.41504144
63 68.5 71.5491 -3.0491 9.29701081
64 72.3 72.9122 -0.6122 0.37478884
65 74.1 74.2905 -0.1905 0.03629025
66 77.6 75.684 1.916 3.671056
67 79.9 77.0927 2.8073 7.88093329
68 86.7 78.5166 8.1834 66.9680356
69 84.4 79.9557 4.4443 19.7518025
70 81.4 81.41 -0.01 1E-04
71 85.1 82.8795 2.2205 4.93062025
72 81.7 84.3642 -2.6642 7.09796164
73 82.3 85.8641 -3.5641 12.7028088
74 83.6 87.3792 -3.7792 14.2823526
75 85.5 88.9095 -3.4095 11.6246903
76 91 90.455 0.545 0.297025
77 92.1 92.0157 0.0843 0.00710649
78 95.8 93.5916 2.2084 4.87703056
79 98.3 95.1827 3.1173 9.71755929
80 102.2 96.789 5.411 29.278921
81 101.5 98.4105 3.0895 9.54501025
 82 98.5 100.0472 -1.5472 2.39382784
83 101.1 101.6991 -0.5991 0.35892081
84 102.5 103.3662 -0.8662 0.75030244
85 102.7 105.0485 -2.3485 5.51545225
86 102.2 106.746 -4.546 20.666116
87 104.7 108.4587 -3.7587 14.1278257
88 108.9 110.1866 -1.2866 1.65533956
89 112.2 111.9297 0.2703 0.07306209
90 109.7 113.688 -3.988 15.904144
91 113.5 115.4615 -1.9615 3.84748225
92 120.4 117.2502 3.1498 9.92124004
93 134.6 119.0541 15.5459 241.675007
94 116.7 120.8732 -4.1732 17.4155982
95 120.6 122.7075 -2.1075 4.44155625
96 124.9 124.557 0.343 0.117649
97 122.2 126.4217 -4.2217 17.8227509
98 121.4 128.3016 -6.9016 47.6320826
99 125.6 130.1967 -4.5967 21.1296509
100 129.7 132.107 -2.407 5.793649
101 133.6 134.0325 -0.4325 0.18705625
102 137.5 135.9732 1.5268 2.33111824
103 143 137.9291 5.0709 25.7140268
104 149 139.9002 9.0998 82.80636
105 149.9 141.8865 8.0135 64.2161822
106 139.5 143.888 -4.388 19.254544
107 147.7 145.9047 1.7953 3.22310209
108 154.7 147.9366 6.7634 45.7435796
109 145.8 149.9837 -4.1837 17.5033457
110 144.4 152.046 -7.646 58.461316
111 145.2 154.1235 -8.9235 79.6288523
112 148.6 156.2162 -7.6162 58.0065024
113 153.7 158.3241 -4.6241 21.3823008
114 157.9 160.4472 -2.5472 6.48822784
115 169.7 162.5855 7.1145 50.6161102
116 184.2 164.739 19.461 378.730521
117 163.2 166.9077 -3.7077 13.7470393
118 155.4 169.0916 -13.6916 187.459911
119 168.9 171.2907 -2.3907 5.71544649
120 178.3 173.505 4.795 22.992025
121 170 175.7345 -5.7345 32.8844903
122 176.3 177.9792 -1.6792 2.81971264
123 174.2 180.2391 -6.0391 36.4707288
124 176.1 182.5142 -6.4142 41.1419616
125 185.3 184.8045 0.4955 0.24552025
126 182.7 187.11 -4.41 19.4481
127 197 189.4307 7.5693 57.2943025
128 216.1 191.7666 24.3334 592.114356
129 192.2 194.1177 -1.9177 3.67757329
MSE 22.6434363
TENDENCIAS
S DE VENTAS

ÓMEZ AUXILIAR: MSc.NELSON DIAZ

GRÁFICA

Toneles
250

200
f(x) = 0.00760830524980261 x² + 0.397850661890598 x + 16.3173022340231

150

100

50

0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
 MODELOS DE TENDEN
PROYECCIONES DE VENTAS

CATEDRÁTICO: DR. SAMUEL REYES GÓMEZ AUXILIA

tiempo Toneles Pronóstico Error e^2
1 15.5 19.8964153 -4.39641532 19.3284677 G
2 17.8 20.2800893 -2.48008928 6.15084283
3 18.1 20.6711618 -2.57116184 6.61087319
4 20.5 21.0697757 -0.56977567 0.32464432
5 21.3 21.4760762 -0.17607621 0.03100283
6 19.8 21.8902117 -2.09021167 4.36898481
7 20.5 22.3123331 -1.81233314 3.28455139 250

8 22.3 22.7425946 -0.44259462 0.19588999 f(x) = 19.52011133

9 22.9 23.1811531 -0.28115307 0.07904705 200
10 21.1 23.6281685 -2.5281685 6.39163599
11 22 24.083804 -2.08380399 4.34223907 150
12 22.8 24.5482258 -1.74822576 3.05629329
13 20.4 25.0216032 -4.62160323 21.3592164 100
14 20.8 25.5041091 -4.70410912 22.1286426
15 22.2 25.9959194 -3.79591944 14.4090044 50
16 24.1 26.4972136 -2.39721362 5.74663313
17 25.5 27.0081745 -1.50817454 2.27459045 0
0 20 40
18 25.9 27.5289886 -1.62898862 2.65360391
19 26.1 28.0598458 -1.95984585 3.84099575
20 27.5 28.6009399 -1.1009399 1.21206867
21 25.8 29.1524682 -3.35246818 11.2390429
22 29.8 29.7146319 0.0853681 0.00728771
23 27.4 30.2876361 -2.88763614 8.33844246
24 29.7 30.8716899 -1.17168995 1.37285733
25 26.9 31.4670064 -4.5670064 20.8575474
26 29.4 32.0738027 -2.67380268 7.14922076
27 29.9 32.6923002 -2.79230016 7.79694017
28 32.4 33.3227245 -0.92272448 0.85142046
29 33.3 33.9653056 -0.66530563 0.44263158
30 34.5 34.620278 -0.12027804 0.01446681
31 34.8 35.2878807 -0.48788066 0.23802754
32 39.1 35.968357 3.13164295 9.80718759
33 39 36.6619554 2.33804456 5.46645234
34 36.5 37.3689289 -0.8689289 0.75503743
35 37.5 38.0895353 -0.58953532 0.3475519
36 39.7 38.8240376 0.87596238 0.7673101
37 36 39.5727037 -3.57270374 12.764212
38 39 40.3358068 -1.33580681 1.78437984
39 42.2 41.1136252 1.08637476 1.18021011
40 44.3 41.9064428 2.39355721 5.72911612
41 46.6 42.7145487 3.88545131 15.0967319
42 46.1 43.5382378 2.56176224 6.56262576
43 48.5 44.3778105 4.1221895 16.9924463
44 52.6 45.2335732 7.3664268 54.2642438
45 52.2 46.1058381 6.09416194 37.1388098
46 50.8 46.9949233 3.8050767 14.4786087
47 51.9 47.9011533 3.99884672 15.9907751
48 55.1 48.8248586 6.27514139 39.3773994
49 52.1 49.7663763 2.33362372 5.44579965
50 53.1 50.7260498 2.37395022 5.63563965
51 56.5 51.7042292 4.79577079 22.9994175
52 58.4 52.7012714 5.69872857 32.4755074
53 61.7 53.7175402 7.98245982 63.7196648
54 61 54.7534062 6.24659377 39.0199337
55 65.5 55.8092475 9.69075253 93.9106845
56 71 56.8854491 14.1145509 199.220547
57 68.1 57.9824038 10.1175962 102.365754
58 67.5 59.1005116 8.39948839 70.5514053
59 68.8 60.2401806 8.55981943 73.2705087
60 68.1 61.4018264 6.69817358 44.8655293
61 64.4 62.585873 1.81412705 3.29105694
62 68.1 63.7927521 4.30724787 18.5523842
63 68.5 65.0229043 3.47709574 12.0901948
64 72.3 66.2767781 6.0232219 36.279202
65 74.1 67.5548311 6.54516888 42.8392357
66 77.6 68.8575296 8.74247044 76.4307894
67 79.9 70.1853487 9.71465132 94.3744503
68 86.7 71.5387729 15.1612271 229.862807
69 84.4 72.918296 11.481704 131.829528
70 81.4 74.3244212 7.07557883 50.0638158
71 85.1 75.7576615 9.34233852 87.2792889
72 81.7 77.2185398 4.4814602 20.0834856
73 82.3 78.7075891 3.59241094 12.9054164
74 83.6 80.2253525 3.37464749 11.3882457
75 85.5 81.7723839 3.72761614 13.8951221
76 91 83.3492475 7.6507525 58.5340138
77 92.1 84.9565187 7.14348129 51.029325
78 95.8 86.5947838 9.20521616 84.7360045
79 98.3 88.2646406 10.0353594 100.708439
80 102.2 89.9666981 12.2333019 149.653675
81 101.5 91.7015774 9.79842259 96.0090852
 82 98.5 93.4699114 5.03008863 25.3017916
83 101.1 95.2723451 5.82765487 33.9615613
84 102.5 97.1095362 5.39046376 29.0570995
85 102.7 98.982155 3.71784504 13.8223717
86 102.2 100.890884 1.30911554 1.71378349
87 104.7 102.836421 1.86357892 3.47292637
88 108.9 104.819475 4.0805254 16.6506875
89 112.2 106.840768 5.35923152 28.7213625
90 109.7 108.90104 0.79895989 0.6383369
91 113.5 111.001041 2.49895885 6.24479534
92 120.4 113.141538 7.2584623 52.6852749
93 134.6 115.323311 19.2766893 371.590751
94 116.7 117.547156 -0.84715603 0.71767334
95 120.6 119.813885 0.78611494 0.6179767
96 124.9 122.124325 2.77567527 7.70437322
97 122.2 124.479318 -2.27931792 5.19529018
98 121.4 126.879724 -5.4797238 30.0273729
99 125.6 129.326418 -3.72641807 13.8861916
100 129.7 131.820293 -2.12029335 4.49564388
101 133.6 134.362259 -0.76225945 0.58103947
102 137.5 136.953244 0.54675626 0.29894241
103 143 139.594191 3.40580854 11.5995318
104 149 142.286066 6.71393392 45.0769087
105 149.9 145.02985 4.87015034 23.7183643
106 139.5 147.826543 -8.32654319 69.3313216
107 147.7 150.677167 -2.97716697 8.86352314
108 154.7 153.582761 1.11723905 1.24822311
109 145.8 156.544385 -10.7443852 115.441812
110 144.4 159.56312 -15.1631201 229.92021
111 145.2 162.640067 -17.440067 304.155935
112 148.6 165.776348 -17.1763484 295.026943
113 153.7 168.973109 -15.2731085 233.267843
114 157.9 172.231514 -14.3315136 205.392282
115 169.7 175.552752 -5.85275236 34.2547102
116 184.2 178.938036 5.26196352 27.6882601
117 163.2 182.388601 -19.188601 368.202407
118 155.4 185.905705 -30.5057047 930.598017
119 168.9 189.490631 -20.5906307 423.974072
120 178.3 193.144687 -14.8446869 220.364729
121 170 196.869206 -26.8692063 721.954249
122 176.3 200.665548 -24.3655478 593.679921
123 174.2 204.535096 -30.3350963 920.21807
124 176.1 208.479264 -32.3792636 1048.41671
125 185.3 212.499488 -27.1994884 739.812171
126 182.7 216.597238 -33.8972376 1149.02272
127 197 220.774006 -23.774006 565.203361
128 216.1 225.031317 -8.9313174 79.7684306
129 192.2 229.370725 -37.170725 1381.6628
MSE 108.179573
TENDENCIAS
S DE VENTAS

ÓMEZ AUXILIAR: MSc.NELSON DIAZ

GRÁFICA

Toneles
250

f(x) = 19.5201113363862 exp( 0.0190802338084579 x )

200 D

150

100

50

0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
 MODELOS DE TENDEN
PROYECCIONES DE VENTAS

CATEDRÁTICO: DR. SAMUEL REYES GÓMEZ AUXILIA

tiempo Toneles Pronóstico Error e^2
1 15.5 -92.058 107.558 11568.7234
2 17.8 -60.4969294 78.2969294 6130.40916 G
3 18.1 -42.0348867 60.1348867 3616.20459
4 20.5 -28.9358589 49.4358589 2443.90414
5 21.3 -18.7754635 40.0754635 1606.04278
6 19.8 -10.4738161 30.2738161 916.503941
7 20.5 -3.45487318 23.9548732 573.835949
8 22.3 2.62521172 19.6747883 387.097294 250
9 22.9 7.98822668 14.9117733 222.360984
10 21.1 12.785607 8.31439296 69.1291303 200
11 22 17.1253655 4.87463454 23.7620619
12 22.8 21.0872545 1.71274552 2.9334972 150
13 20.4 24.7318391 -4.33183909 18.7648299
f(x) = 45.53302
14 20.8 28.1061974 -7.30619739 53.3805203 100
15 22.2 31.2476498 -9.04764981 81.859967
16 24.1 34.1862823 -10.0862823 101.73309 50
17 25.5 36.9467032 -11.4467032 131.027014
18 25.9 39.5492973 -13.6492973 186.303315
0
19 26.1 42.01114 -15.91114 253.164377 0 20 40
20 27.5 44.3466776 -16.8466776 283.810547
21 25.8 46.5682402 -20.7682402 431.319799
22 29.8 48.686436 -18.886436 356.697466
23 27.4 50.7104581 -23.3104581 543.377458
24 29.7 52.6483251 -22.9483251 526.625623
25 26.9 54.5070729 -27.6070729 762.150476
26 29.4 56.2929097 -26.8929097 723.22859
27 29.9 58.01134 -28.11134 790.247438
28 32.4 59.667268 -27.267268 743.503902
29 33.3 61.265081 -27.965081 782.045757
30 34.5 62.8087204 -28.3087204 801.38365
31 34.8 64.3017394 -29.5017394 870.352627
32 39.1 65.7473529 -26.6473529 710.081415
33 39 67.1484788 -28.1484788 792.336859
34 36.5 68.5077738 -32.0077738 1024.49758
35 37.5 69.8276633 -32.3276633 1045.07781
36 39.7 71.1103678 -31.4103678 986.611207
37 36 72.3579253 -36.3579253 1321.89873
38 39 73.5722106 -34.5722106 1195.23775
39 42.2 74.7549524 -32.5549524 1059.82493
40 44.3 75.9077482 -31.6077482 999.049745
41 46.6 77.0320769 -30.4320769 926.111305
42 46.1 78.1293107 -32.0293107 1025.87675
43 48.5 79.2007249 -30.7007249 942.534507
44 52.6 80.2475066 -27.6475066 764.384621
45 52.2 81.2707631 -29.0707631 845.10927
46 50.8 82.2715287 -31.4715287 990.457119
47 51.9 83.2507707 -31.3507707 982.870827
48 55.1 84.2093956 -29.1093956 847.356914
49 52.1 85.1482536 -33.0482536 1092.18707
50 53.1 86.0681435 -32.9681435 1086.89849
51 56.5 86.9698165 -30.4698165 928.40972
52 58.4 87.8539802 -29.4539802 867.536952
53 61.7 88.7213017 -27.0213017 730.150746
54 61 89.5724106 -28.5724106 816.382647
55 65.5 90.4079019 -24.9079019 620.403578
56 71 91.2283385 -20.2283385 409.18568
57 68.1 92.0342534 -23.9342534 572.848485
58 67.5 92.8261516 -25.3261516 641.413955
59 68.8 93.6045124 -24.8045124 615.263837
60 68.1 94.369791 -26.269791 690.101917
61 64.4 95.1224197 -30.7224197 943.86707
62 68.1 95.86281 -27.76281 770.773617
63 68.5 96.5913535 -28.0913535 789.124141
64 72.3 97.3084234 -25.0084234 625.421243
65 74.1 98.0143756 -23.9143756 571.897358
66 77.6 98.7095494 -21.1095494 445.613075
67 79.9 99.394269 -19.494269 380.026525
68 86.7 100.068844 -13.3688443 178.725999
69 84.4 100.733571 -16.3335715 266.785557
70 81.4 101.388734 -19.9887339 399.549481
71 85.1 102.034603 -16.9346028 286.780773
72 81.7 102.671438 -20.9714384 439.801228
73 82.3 103.29949 -20.9994897 440.978569
74 83.6 103.918996 -20.3189959 412.861594
75 85.5 104.530186 -19.0301863 362.14799
76 91 105.133281 -14.1332812 199.749637
77 92.1 105.728492 -13.6284923 185.735802
78 95.8 106.316023 -10.516023 110.58674
79 98.3 106.896069 -8.59606907 73.8924034
80 102.2 107.468819 -5.26881876 27.7604511
81 101.5 108.034453 -6.53445336 42.6990807
 82 98.5 108.593147 -10.0931475 101.871626
83 101.1 109.145069 -8.04506939 64.7231416
84 102.5 109.690381 -7.1903813 51.7015833
85 102.7 110.22924 -7.52923966 56.6894499
86 102.2 110.761795 -8.56179544 73.3043412
87 104.7 111.288194 -6.58819437 43.404305
88 108.9 111.808577 -2.90857717 8.45982117
89 112.2 112.32308 -0.12307982 0.01514864
90 109.7 112.831834 -3.13183372 9.80838244
91 113.5 113.334966 0.16503409 0.02723625
92 120.4 113.832599 6.56740072 43.1307522
93 134.6 114.324853 20.2751473 411.081597
94 116.7 114.811841 1.88815868 3.5651432
95 120.6 115.293677 5.30632349 28.157069
96 124.9 115.770466 9.1295338 83.3483874
97 122.2 116.242315 5.95768502 35.4940107
98 121.4 116.709324 4.69067579 22.0024394
99 125.6 117.171592 8.42840786 71.0380591
100 129.7 117.629214 12.0707859 145.703873
101 133.6 118.082282 15.5177175 240.799557
102 137.5 118.530887 18.9691129 359.827244
103 143 118.975115 24.024885 577.195098
104 149 119.415051 29.5849492 875.269219
105 149.9 119.850777 30.0492234 902.955826
106 139.5 120.282372 19.2176277 369.317215
107 147.7 120.709915 26.9900847 728.464671
108 154.7 121.133481 33.5665188 1126.71119
109 145.8 121.553143 24.2468569 587.910068
110 144.4 121.968972 22.4310275 503.150995
111 145.2 122.381039 22.8189613 520.704997
112 148.6 122.789409 25.8105909 666.186602
113 153.7 123.19415 30.5058505 930.606912
114 157.9 123.595324 34.304676 1176.8108
115 169.7 123.992995 45.7070054 2089.13034
116 184.2 124.387222 59.8127778 3577.56839
117 163.2 124.778066 38.4219342 1476.24503
118 155.4 125.165583 30.234417 914.119971
119 168.9 125.54983 43.35017 1879.23724
120 178.3 125.930862 52.3691385 2742.52666
121 170 126.308731 43.6912691 1908.92699
122 176.3 126.68349 49.6165098 2461.79804
123 174.2 127.05519 47.1448097 2222.63309
124 176.1 127.423881 48.6761195 2369.36461
125 185.3 127.789609 57.5103906 3307.44503
126 182.7 128.152424 54.5475759 2975.43804
127 197 128.512371 68.4876294 4690.55538
128 216.1 128.869494 87.230506 7609.16118
129 192.2 129.223838 62.9761618 3965.99695
MSE 965.087952
TENDENCIAS
S DE VENTAS

ÓMEZ AUXILIAR: MSc.NELSON DIAZ

GRÁFICA

Toneles
250

200

150

f(x) = 45.5330297568349 ln(x) − 92.0583519863163

100

50

0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
 MODELOS DE TENDEN
PROYECCIONES DE VENTAS

CATEDRÁTICO: DR. SAMUEL REYES GÓMEZ AUXILIA

tiempo Toneles Pronóstico Error e^2
1 15.5 4.3 11.2 124.7 G
2 17.8 7.1 10.7 115.1
3 18.1 9.4 8.7 75.4
4 20.5 11.5 9.0 80.3
5 21.3 13.5 7.8 60.7
6 19.8 15.4 4.4 19.7
7 20.5 17.1 3.4 11.3
250
8 22.3 18.8 3.5 12.1
9 22.9 20.5 2.4 5.9
200
10 21.1 22.0 -0.9 0.9
11 22 23.6 -1.6 2.5
150
12 22.8 25.1 -2.3 5.2
13 20.4 26.5 -6.1 37.6 f(x) = 4.3327465075
14 20.8 28.0 -7.2 51.2 100
15 22.2 29.4 -7.2 51.2
16 24.1 30.7 -6.6 43.9 50
17 25.5 32.1 -6.6 43.1
18 25.9 33.4 -7.5 56.1 0
0 20 40
19 26.1 34.7 -8.6 73.8
20 27.5 36.0 -8.5 71.7
21 25.8 37.2 -11.4 130.7
22 29.8 38.5 -8.7 75.3
23 27.4 39.7 -12.3 151.4
24 29.7 40.9 -11.2 125.8
25 26.9 42.1 -15.2 231.4
26 29.4 43.3 -13.9 193.1
27 29.9 44.5 -14.6 212.1
28 32.4 45.6 -13.2 174.8
29 33.3 46.8 -13.5 181.4
30 34.5 47.9 -13.4 179.6
31 34.8 49.0 -14.2 202.3
32 39.1 50.1 -11.0 121.8
33 39 51.2 -12.2 149.8
34 36.5 52.3 -15.8 250.6
35 37.5 53.4 -15.9 253.2
36 39.7 54.5 -14.8 218.6
37 36 55.6 -19.6 382.2
38 39 56.6 -17.6 310.0
39 42.2 57.7 -15.5 238.9
40 44.3 58.7 -14.4 207.3
41 46.6 59.7 -13.1 172.4
42 46.1 60.8 -14.7 214.8
43 48.5 61.8 -13.3 176.2
44 52.6 62.8 -10.2 103.7
45 52.2 63.8 -11.6 134.3
46 50.8 64.8 -14.0 195.7
47 51.9 65.8 -13.9 192.7
48 55.1 66.8 -11.7 136.1
49 52.1 67.7 -15.6 244.8
50 53.1 68.7 -15.6 244.0
51 56.5 69.7 -13.2 173.9
52 58.4 70.7 -12.3 150.1
53 61.7 71.6 -9.9 98.2
54 61 72.6 -11.6 133.6
55 65.5 73.5 -8.0 64.1
56 71 74.4 -3.4 11.9
57 68.1 75.4 -7.3 53.1
58 67.5 76.3 -8.8 77.7
59 68.8 77.2 -8.4 71.3
60 68.1 78.2 -10.1 101.3
61 64.4 79.1 -14.7 215.6
62 68.1 80.0 -11.9 141.6
63 68.5 80.9 -12.4 154.0
64 72.3 81.8 -9.5 90.5
65 74.1 82.7 -8.6 74.2
66 77.6 83.6 -6.0 36.1
67 79.9 84.5 -4.6 21.2
68 86.7 85.4 1.3 1.7
69 84.4 86.3 -1.9 3.5
70 81.4 87.2 -5.8 33.2
71 85.1 88.0 -2.9 8.6
72 81.7 88.9 -7.2 52.0
73 82.3 89.8 -7.5 56.0
74 83.6 90.7 -7.1 49.7
75 85.5 91.5 -6.0 36.2
76 91 92.4 -1.4 1.9
77 92.1 93.2 -1.1 1.3
78 95.8 94.1 1.7 2.9
79 98.3 94.9 3.4 11.3
80 102.2 95.8 6.4 41.2
81 101.5 96.6 4.9 23.7
 82 98.5 97.5 1.0 1.1
83 101.1 98.3 2.8 7.8
84 102.5 99.1 3.4 11.3
85 102.7 100.0 2.7 7.4
86 102.2 100.8 1.4 1.9
87 104.7 101.6 3.1 9.4
88 108.9 102.5 6.4 41.5
89 112.2 103.3 8.9 79.6
90 109.7 104.1 5.6 31.4
91 113.5 104.9 8.6 73.8
92 120.4 105.7 14.7 215.4
93 134.6 106.5 28.1 787.7
94 116.7 107.3 9.4 87.6
95 120.6 108.1 12.5 155.0
96 124.9 109.0 15.9 254.4
97 122.2 109.8 12.4 155.0
98 121.4 110.6 10.8 117.7
99 125.6 111.3 14.3 203.2
100 129.7 112.1 17.6 308.4
101 133.6 112.9 20.7 427.2
102 137.5 113.7 23.8 565.5
103 143 114.5 28.5 811.9
104 149 115.3 33.7 1136.3
105 149.9 116.1 33.8 1144.3
106 139.5 116.9 22.6 512.9
107 147.7 117.6 30.1 904.2
108 154.7 118.4 36.3 1317.3
109 145.8 119.2 26.6 708.7
110 144.4 120.0 24.4 597.8
111 145.2 120.7 24.5 599.3
112 148.6 121.5 27.1 735.1
113 153.7 122.3 31.4 988.9
114 157.9 123.0 34.9 1216.9
115 169.7 123.8 45.9 2108.9
116 184.2 124.5 59.7 3559.7
117 163.2 125.3 37.9 1436.8
118 155.4 126.1 29.3 861.4
119 168.9 126.8 42.1 1772.1
120 178.3 127.6 50.7 2575.0
121 170 128.3 41.7 1738.4
122 176.3 129.1 47.2 2232.2
123 174.2 129.8 44.4 1971.3
124 176.1 130.5 45.6 2075.2
125 185.3 131.3 54.0 2917.3
126 182.7 132.0 50.7 2567.5
127 197 132.8 64.2 4125.7
128 216.1 133.5 82.6 6821.7
129 192.2 134.2 58.0 3359.1
MSE 488.968737
TENDENCIAS
S DE VENTAS

ÓMEZ AUXILIAR: MSc.NELSON DIAZ

GRÁFICA

Toneles
250

200

150

f(x) = 4.33274650752392 x^0.706540423413063

100

50

0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
 MODELOS DE TENDEN
PROYECCIONES DE VENTAS
CATEDRÁTICO: DR. SAMUEL REYES GÓMEZ AUXILIA
COLOQUE LOS MSE ANÁLISIS
MSE
LINEAL 111.668993
CUADRÁTICA 22.6434363 Podemos confirmar luego de los calculos que el modelo
EXPONENCIAL 108.179573 cuadratico es el que tiene menor error
LOGARITMICA 965.087952
POTENCIAL 488.968737

ANÁLISIS

¿Qué modelo de
descomposición es el adecuado?
Se puede confirmar que el Modelo cuadratico es el mas adecuado
ANÁLISIS
¿Recomendaría algun otro? Presentan una alta tasa de error, no se recomiendan.
E TENDENCIAS
ES DE VENTAS
GÓMEZ AUXILIAR: MSc.NELSON DIAZ