NEWS U CAN USE

September 29, 2023

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 The Week that was…
25th Sep to 29th Sep

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Indian Economy
• Government data showed that India’s fiscal deficit for the period from Apr to Aug of FY24
stood at Rs. 6.43 lakh crore or 36% of budget estimates of the current fiscal. India’s fiscal
deficit stood at 32.6% of the budget estimate in the corresponding period of the previous
fiscal year. Total expenditure stood at Rs. 16.72 lakh crore or 37.1% of the budget
estimate as compared to 35.2% of the budget estimate in the corresponding period of the
previous fiscal year.
• According to government data, the combined Index of Eight Core Industries increased by
12.1% in Aug 2023 as compared to 4.2% in Aug 2022. The production of all Eight Core
Industries recorded positive growth in Aug 2023 over the corresponding month of last
year. Cement witnessed the maximum growth at 18.9% followed by coal with 17.9%
growth in Aug 2023.
• India’s current account deficit (CAD) narrowed to US$ 9.2 billion (1.1% of GDP) in Q1 FY24
from US$ 17.9 billion (2.1% of GDP) in Q1 FY23 but it was higher than US$ 1.3 billion (0.2%
of GDP) in the preceding quarter. The narrowing of CAD in Q1 FY23 was mainly on account
of a higher trade deficit coupled with a lower surplus in net services and decline in private
transfer receipts.
• According to the RBI data, India's external debt increased marginally by about $4.8 to
$629.1 billion at Jun 2023 from $624.3 billion at Mar 2023. The external debt to GDP ratio
decreased at the end of Jun 2023 to 18.6% from 18.8% at Mar 2023.

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 Indian Equity Market
Domestic Equity Market Indices • Domestic equity markets witnessed
Indices 29-Sep-23 1 Week Return YTD Return losses for the second consecutive week
S&P BSE Sensex 65,828.41 -0.27% 8.20%
as key benchmark indices S&P BSE
Sensex and Nifty 50 came down 0.27%
Nifty 50 19,638.30 -0.18% 8.47%
and 0.18% respectively. However, there
S&P BSE Mid-Cap 32,340.71 1.23% 27.76%
was some volatility in the market as the
S&P BSE Small-Cap 37,562.23 1.36% 29.85%
mid cap segment and the small cap
Source: Refinitiv Values as on Sep 29, 2023
segment closed the week in green.
S&P BSE S&P BSE S&P BSE • Domestic equity markets fell following
Ratios Nifty 50
Sensex Mid Cap Small Cap negative cues from global equity
P/E 24.16 22.21 25.81 29.65 markets amid concerns that higher
P/B 3.59 3.45 3.19 3.11 interest rates for an extended period
Dividend Yield 1.24 1.37 1.04 0.76
Source: NSE, BSE Values as on Sep 29, 2023
may lead to a slowdown in global
growth. Uncertainty regarding the
NSE Advance/Decline Ratio
global interest rate outlook also added
Date Advances Declines Advance/Decline Ratio to the losses as the U.S. Fed indicated
25-Sep-23 1136 1260 0.90 one more rate hike may come by the
26-Sep-23 1113 1275 0.87 end of the year while European Central
27-Sep-23 1323 1051 1.26
28-Sep-23 858 1529 0.56
Bank and Bank of England hinted that
29-Sep-23 1584 783 2.02 interest rates might not go up further.
Source: NSE

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 Indian Equity Market (contd.)
Sectoral Indices • On the BSE sectoral front, S&P BSE IT fell the
Indices
Last Returns (in %) most by 2.81%. IT stocks remained under
Closing 1-Wk 1-Mth pressure after a major IT services company
S&P BSE Auto 36,628.82 -0.46% 3.14% reported its Q4 earning numbers which fell
S&P BSE Bankex 50,174.68 -0.05% 1.63% short of market expectations. The company
S&P BSE CD 45,359.94 -1.29% 1.78% indicated that high inflation and interest rates
S&P BSE CG 47,729.02 2.16% 5.56% pressures may adversely impact demand next
S&P BSE FMCG 18,679.41 0.08% 1.16% year. S&P BSE Healthcare rose the most by
S&P BSE HC 28,497.52 2.64% 2.16%
2.64% as the sector benefitted due to
S&P BSE IT 32,065.34 -2.81% 1.70%
improved performance in the U.S. generics
S&P BSE Metal 23,206.33 2.16% 6.36%
market, lower raw material costs, and new
S&P BSE Oil & Gas 19,025.66 0.11% 3.14%
Source:BSE Values as on Sep 29, 2023
product launches.
Indian Derivatives Market Review
• Nifty Oct 2023 Futures stood at 19,709.00, a premium of 70.70 points above the spot
closing of 19,638.30.
• The total turnover on NSE’s Futures and Options segment for the week stood at Rs.
1,151.48 lakh crore as against Rs. 1,342.28 lakh crore for the week to Sep 22.
• The Put-Call ratio stood at 0.91 compared with the previous week’s close of 0.96.
• The Nifty Put-Call ratio stood at 1.03 compared with the previous week’s close of 0.93.

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 Domestic Debt Market
• Bond yields increased sharply tracking
Debt Indicators Current 1-Wk 1-Mth 6-Mth
(%) Value Ago Ago Ago the all time high U.S. yield since 2007 and
rising crude oil prices. Losses extended
Call Rate 6.87 6.77 6.75 6.72 further after government maintained its
91 Day T-Bill 6.87 6.82 6.80 7.18 borrowing goal for the second half of
05.74% 2026, (5 Yr GOI) 7.27 7.20 7.19 7.17 FY24, defying market expectations that
supply would decrease. However, losses
07.26% 2033, (10 Yr GOI) 7.25 7.19 7.19 7.28
eased as market responded favourably to
Source: Refinitiv Values as on Sep 29, 2023 the little easing of U.S. yields from its
highs and a correction in crude oil prices.

8.00
10 -Yr Benchmark Bond ( % ) • Yield on the new 10-year benchmark
paper (7.26% GS 2033) increased by 6
Yield in %

7.33 bps to close at 7.25% from the previous

week’s close of 7.19%.
6.67
• Data from Reserve Bank of India showed
6.00 that India's foreign exchange reserves
25-Sep 26-Sep 27-Sep 28-Sep 29-Sep
Source: CCIL
plunged to $590.70 billion for the week
ended Sep 22, 2023 compared with
$593.04 billion a week earlier.

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 Domestic Debt Market (Spread Analysis)
• Yields on gilt increased in the range of 4 to 12 bps
G-Sec Yield Corporate Yield Spread across the maturities, barring 11 year paper that fell
Maturity
(%) (%) bps 4 bps.
• Corporate bond yields rose between 6 to 11 bps
1 Year 7.10 7.82 72 across the curve.

3 Year 7.39 7.80 41

• Difference in spread between AAA corporate bond
and gilt remained unchanged or moved 1 bps across
5 Year 7.36 7.60 24 the segments, barring 2 year paper that expanded 5
bps, while 6 year paper contracted 4 bps.
10 Year 7.34 7.55 21

Source: Refinitiv Value as on Sep 29, 2023

India Yield Curve Shift (%) (W-o-W)

Change in bps
7.60 15
Yield in %

7.40 10
7.20 5
7.00
6.80 0
6.60 -5
6.40 -10
3 Mths 6 Mths 1 Yr 5 Yrs 10 Yrs 20 Yrs 30 Yrs
Source: Refinitiv Change in bps 29-Sep-23 22-Sep-23

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Regulatory Updates in India
• The Government of India has made the decision to borrow the remaining amount of Rs. 6.55
trillion which is 42.45% of the total deficit for FY24 of Rs. 15.43 trillion, in the second half of
FY24 through dated securities, including Rs. 20,000 crore through the issuance of Sovereign
Green Bonds. RBI set the Ways and Mean Advances (WMA) limit for the period of Oct 2023
to Mar 2024 at Rs. 50,000 crore to address short-term discrepancies in Government
accounts.
• The government kept all other small savings schemes interest rates unchanged while raising
the interest rate on the five-year recurring deposit scheme by 20 basis points to 6.7% for the
quarter between Oct and Dec of FY24.
• The Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) relaxed angel tax rules for unlisted startups by
extending the 10% safe harbour to convertible preference shares, earlier which was only
available to equity shares. The experts claim that the Income Tax Act made important
advancements in the valuation procedure for unquoted equity shares that give taxpayers a
wider range of valuation methods to choose from, including approaches that are
internationally recognized, attracting foreign investment and promoting clarity.

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Regulatory Updates in India (contd..)
• The higher rate of 20% Tax Collection at Source (TCS) will be levied on spending above Rs.
7 lakh on foreign tour packages and liberalised remittance scheme (LRS) from Oct 1, 2023.
Currently, LRS transfers up to Rs. 7 lakh in a fiscal do not attract any TCS and purchase of
overseas tour packages attracts 5% TCS.
• According to the head of Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs (CBIC), the
government is fully prepared to put into effect the revised provisions for levying a 28% tax
on online gaming, casinos, and horse racing along with mandatory registration of offshore
online gaming platforms as of Oct 1, 2023.
• Government of India launched the Rs. 5,000 crore Promotion of Research and Innovation
in Pharma and MedTech sector (PRIP) scheme with the goal of transitioning the country's
pharma-medtech sector from cost-based to innovation-based growth. The scheme intends
to improve India's research infrastructure, which is currently the third-largest
pharmaceutical market in the world by volume at about $50 billion.
• Capital markets regulator SEBI extended the deadline for current demat account holders
to provide their choice of nomination by another three months to Dec 31, 2023 from the
earlier cutoff date of Sep 30. The regulator has also made it optional to submit a "choice of
nomination" for trading accounts in an effort to make doing business easier.

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Global News/Economy
• According to the Commerce Department, U.S. real gross domestic product increased by
2.1% in the second quarter of 2023, unrevised from the estimate provided last month.
• According to the National Association of Realtors, U.S. pending home sales plunged by
7.1% to 71.8 in Aug 2023 after rising by 0.5% to a downwardly revised 77.3 in Jul 2023.
Economists had expected pending home sales to decrease by 0.8% compared to the 0.9%
advance originally reported for the previous month.
• According to Eurostat, eurozone’s inflation eased sharply to 4.3%in Sep 2023 from 5.2% in
Aug 2023. The core rate, which excludes volatile energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, slowed
more-than-expected to 4.5% from 5.3% in the previous month.
• According to Destatis, Germany’s consumer price index registered an annual increase of
4.5% in Sep 2023, following a 6.1% rise in Aug 2023. Likewise, excluding food and energy,
core inflation softened to 4.6% from 5.5% in the previous month.
• According to the Cabinet Office, Japan’s consumer confidence index dropped to 35.2 in
Sep 2023 from 36.2 in Aug 2023. Further, the latest reading was the highest since Mar
2023, when it was 33.9.
• According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s industrial profits logged a double-
digit growth of 17.2% in Aug 2023, in contrast to the 6.7% decrease in July 2023. However,
industrial profits during Jan to Aug 2023 period declined 11.7% from a year ago.

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 Global Equity Markets
U.S.
Global Indices
•
U.S. equity markets closed on a mixed
1-Week YTD
Indices 29-Sep-23
Return Return
note during the week. Data showed
that new orders for U.S. manufactured
Russell 3000 2,110.24 -0.24% 22.92%
durable goods rose in Aug 2023, U.S.
Nasdaq 100 14,715.24 0.10% 34.51%
personal income and the annual rate of
FTSE 100 7,608.08 -0.99% 2.10%
growth of core consumer prices for Jul
DAX Index 15,386.58 -1.10% 10.51%
2023 came along market expectations.
Nikkei Average 31,857.62 -1.68% 22.09%
However, concerns of a U.S government
Straits Times 3,217.41 0.39% -1.04%
Source: Refinitiv Value as on Sep 29, 2023
shutdown, and the outlook about
interest rates weighed on the market
Europe sentiment.
• European equity markets fell as possibility of a U.S. government shutdown, persisting
concerns about high interest rates, inflation, and economic slowdown weighed on the
market sentiment. However, further losses were restricted after Eurozone's annual
inflation rate fell in Sep 2023 which led to expectations that the European Central Bank
may keep interest rates on hold.
Asia
• Asian equity markets closed on a mixed note. Markets remained under pressure amid
persisting concerns over China’s property sector. Hopes that China’s Golden Week holiday
will spur a consumption revival and boost sentiment also boosted market sentiments.

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 Global Debt (U.S.)
US 10-Year Treasury Yield Movement • Yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose
13 bps to close at 4.57% from the
4.64 previous week’s close of 4.44%.
4.62
• U.S. Treasury prices declined during the
4.60
week on expectations that the U.S.
Yield in %

4.58
Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain
4.56
interest rates high for some time to
4.54
lower inflation to its 2% target.
4.52
4.50 • However, losses were restricted at the
4.48 end after U.S. core personal
25-Sep 26-Sep 27-Sep 28-Sep 29-Sep consumption expenditures (PCE) price
Source: Refinitiv
for Aug 2023 indicated to moderation
of inflation, which reinforced
expectations the U.S. Fed may be done
increasing interest rates.

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 Commodities Market
Global Commodity Movement Gold
12.00 Rebased to 10 • Gold prices fell as the greenback
Global Commodity Prices

strengthened on concerns that the U.S.

11.00 1.71%
Federal Reserve may keep interest rates at
10.00 -3.98%
higher levels for an extended period.

9.00 -5.82%
Brent Crude
8.00 • Brent crude oil prices rose as OPEC+
30-Aug-23 9-Sep-23 19-Sep-23 29-Sep-23 production cuts squeezed global crude
supply. However macroeconomic concerns,
Gold Spot ($/Oz) Silver Spot ($/Oz) Brent ($/bbl)
profit booking and worries that higher
Source: Refinitiv
interest rates may lead to a slowdown in
Performance of various commodities global growth hurt the demand outlook of
Commodities Last Closing* 1-Week Ago the commodity which capped the gains.
Brent Crude($/Barrel) 96.86 95.23
Baltic Dry Index
Gold ($/Oz) 1,848.31 1,924.99
Gold (Rs/10 gm) 57,594 58,870 • The index rose over the week due to
Silver ($/Oz) 22.16 23.53 improved capesize and panamax activities.
Silver (Rs/Kg) 71,449 73,004
Source: Refinitiv *Value as on Sep 29, 2023

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 Currencies Markets
Rupee
Currency Movement • The Indian rupee in the spot trade fell against
Currency Prices ( in terms of INR)

10.20 Rebased to 10 the U.S. dollar due to rising crude oil prices and
10.10 0.13%
U.S. Treasury yields.
10.00
9.90
-0.32%
Euro
9.80 -0.46% • Euro was fell against the U.S. dollar amid
9.70
-0.19% opinions that the European Central Bank is
9.60
9.50
unlikely to raise rates further, whereas the U.S.
9.40 Fed would increase interest rates again this
29-Aug-23 9-Sep-23 20-Sep-23 29-Sep-23 year.
Source: Refinitiv
USD GBP Euro JPY Pound
• Pound declined against the strong U.S. dollar as
Movement of Rupee vs Other Currencies
investors expects that the U.S. economy would
Currency Last Closing* 1-Wk Ago perform better than its rivals with higher
US Dollar 83.06 82.95 interest rates.
Pound Sterling 101.67 101.87 Yen
EURO 87.94 88.35 • Yen fell against the U.S. dollar where Japanese
officials are seen as potentially intervening to
100 Yen 55.81 55.99
shore up the domestic currency.
Source: Refinitiv Figures in INR , *Value as on Sep 29, 2023

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 The Week that was…
25th Sep to 29th Sep

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The Week that was (Sep 25 – Sep 29)
Present Previous
Date Events
Value Value
Monday, • Germany IFO – Current Assessment(Sep) 88.7 89
September 25, 2023 • Japan Corporate Service Price Index (YoY)(Aug) 2.10% 1.70%
Tuesday, • U.S. Housing Price Index (MoM)(Jul) 0.80% 0.40%
September 26, 2023 • U.S. New Home Sales (MoM)(Aug) 0.675M 0.739M
• Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey(Oct) -26.5 -25.6
Wednesday,
• U.S. Durable Goods Orders (Aug) 0.20% -5.60%
September 27, 2023
• Eurozone Private Loans (YoY)(Aug) 1% 1.30%
• India Current Account (Q2) $-9.2B $-1.3B
• Eurozone Business Climate (Sep) -0.36 -0.41
• Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Sep) -17.8 -17.8
Thursday,
• U.S. Gross Domestic Product Annualized(Q2) 2.10% 2.10%
September 28, 2023
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims(Sep 22) 204K 202K
• Japan Unemployment Rate(Aug) 2.70% 2.70%
• Germany Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Sep) PREL 4.50% 6.10%
• India Government Budget Value (Aug) (INR) -6428B -6055.9B
Friday, • India Infrastructure Output YoY (Aug) 12.10% 8.40%
September 29, 2023 • U.K. Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)(Q2) 0.20% 0.20%
• Germany Retail Sales (YoY)(Aug) -2.30% -2.20%

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 The Week Ahead
02nd Oct to 06th Oct

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The Week Ahead
Day Event
Monday, • Eurozone Unemployment Rate (Aug)
Oct 02, 2023 • U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
Tuesday, • India S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
Oct 03, 2023 • U.S. JOLTS Job Openings (Aug)
• Germany HCOB Composite PMI(Sep)
Wednesday, • Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI(Sep)
• Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY)(Aug)
Oct 04, 2023 • U.S. ADP Employment Change (Sep)
• U.S. ISM Services PMI(Sep)
• India S&P Global Services PMI (Sep)
Thursday, • Germany Trade Balance (Aug)
Oct 05, 2023 • U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (Sep 29)
• Japan Labor Cash Earnings (YoY)(Aug)
• Reserve Bank of India Interest Rate Decision
Friday, • Germany Factory Orders (YoY) (Aug)
Oct 06, 2023 • U.S. Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)(Sep)
• U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep)

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Disclaimer
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markets which have been obtained from independent third party sources and which are deemed to be reliable. The information provided cannot be
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 Thank you for
your time.
Thank you for
your time.

Mutual Fund Investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.