NEWS U CAN USE

October 20, 2023

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 The Week that was…
16th Oct to 20th Oct

Mutual Fund Investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
Indian Economy
• India's wholesale price index based inflation remains in the negative territory for the sixth
month in a row at -0.26% in Sep 2023 as compared to -0.52% in Aug 2023. The decline in
inflation is primarily attributed to lower prices for food items, textiles, basic metals,
chemical products, and mineral oils compared to corresponding month of previous year.
• According to SIAM, two-wheeler exports from India have decreased 20% YoY to 1.69
million units in H1 of FY24 due to a challenging geopolitical situation and foreign exchange
crises in key markets such as South Asia. In H1FY24, exports of passenger vehicles climbed
5% to 336,754 units as a result of the primary international markets being substantially
more diversified.
• According to the most recent Economic Outlook Survey published by the Federation of
Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry, the Indian economy is expected to grow by
6.3% in FY24, with minimum and maximum growth estimates of 6.0% and 6.6%,
respectively.
• The Directorate General of GST Intelligence has detected tax evasion of Rs. 1.36 lakh crore
in the first six months of FY24 and received Rs. 14,108 crore as voluntary tax payment.
Authorities claimed that the fight against fraudulent invoices and data analytics was
assisting them in identifying instances of tax evasion.

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 Indian Equity Market
• Domestic equity markets fell after
Domestic Equity Market Indices rising for two consecutive weeks as key
Indices 20-Oct-23 1 Week Return YTD Return benchmark indices S&P BSE Sensex and
S&P BSE Sensex 65,397.62 -1.34% 7.49% Nifty 50 fell more than 1%. There was
Nifty 50 19,542.65 -1.06% 7.94% volatility in the market as the mid-cap
S&P BSE Mid-Cap 31,880.86 -1.31% 25.94%
segment closed the week in red while
S&P BSE Small-Cap 38,198.72 0.04% 32.05%
the small cap segment closed in green.
Source: Refinitiv Values as on Oct 20, 2023
• Domestic equities fell as concerns over
rising U.S. Treasury yields and worries
Ratios
S&P BSE
Nifty 50
S&P BSE S&P BSE about potential rate hikes by the U.S.
Sensex Mid Cap Small Cap
Federal Reserve (Fed). Yield on U.S.
P/E 23.52 21.68 25.33 29.99 Treasury hit the 5% mark for the first
P/B 3.36 3.43 3.12 3.16
Dividend Yield 1.24 1.38 1.05 0.75
time since 2007 while the U.S. Fed
Source: NSE, BSE Values as on Oct 20, 2023 Chief indicated that interest rates in
NSE Advance/Decline Ratio U.S. may remain at higher levels for an
Date Advances Declines Advance/Decline Ratio extended period. Increase in global
16-Oct-23 1299 1153 1.13
crude oil prices also added to the
17-Oct-23 1480 926 1.60 losses. Global crude oil prices went up
18-Oct-23 806 1601 0.50 amid fears that oil supplies may be
19-Oct-23 1132 1254 0.90 disrupted due to the escalating
20-Oct-23 751 1647 0.46
regional conflict in the Middle East.
Source: NSE

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 Indian Equity Market (contd.)
Sectoral Indices • On the BSE Sectoral front, all the sectoral
Indices
Last Returns (in %) indices closed the week in red barring S&P BSE
Closing 1-Wk 1-Mth Auto which rose 0.54%. The auto sector
S&P BSE Auto 37,471.3 0.54% 0.51% gained after a major domestic automobile
S&P BSE Bankex 49,184.3 -1.17% -3.69%
company reported upbeat earning numbers
S&P BSE CD 45,488.8 -1.55% -2.25%
for Q2FY24 on the back of continuing
S&P BSE CG 47,213.1 -1.43% 0.66%
domestic growth and recovery in exports.
S&P BSE FMCG 18,748.7 -1.39% -0.29%
S&P BSE HC 28,001. -1.06% -1.23% • S&P BSE Realty fell the most by 2.29% due to
S&P BSE IT 31,940.1 -0.83% -3.37% profit booking. FMCG stocks also remained
S&P BSE Metal 22,962.8 -1.01% -0.08% under pressure after two prominent domestic
S&P BSE Oil & Gas 18,585.8 -1.91% -2.93% FMCG companies reported downbeat earning
Source:BSE Values as on Oct 20, 2023
numbers for the quarter ended Sep 2023.
Indian Derivatives Market Review
• Nifty Oct 2023 Futures stood at 19,527.85, a discount of 14.80 points below the spot
closing of 19,542.65.
• The total turnover on NSE’s Futures and Options segment for the week stood at Rs.
1,547.13 lakh crore as against Rs. 1,516.24 lakh crore for the week to Oct 13.
• The Put-Call ratio stood at 0.88 compared with the previous week’s close of 0.89.
• The Nifty Put-Call ratio stood at 0.9 compared with the previous week’s close of 1.14.

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 Domestic Debt Market
• Bond yields rose following the rising U.S.
Debt Indicators Current 1-Wk 1-Mth 6-Mth treasury yields which reached to its peak
(%) Value Ago Ago Ago
since 2007 financial crisis. Elevated crude
Call Rate 6.74 6.73 6.76 6.56 oil prices amid the escalating conflict in
91 Day T-Bill 6.93 6.90 6.85 6.78
the middle east extended the losses
further.
05.63% 2026, (5 Yr GOI) 7.35 7.33 7.18 7.00
• Yield on the 10-year benchmark paper
07.18% 2033, (10 Yr GOI) 7.36 7.32 7.15 7.20
(7.18% GS 2033) rose by 4 bps to close at
Source: Refinitiv Values as on Oct 20, 2023
7.36% from the previous week’s close of
7.32%.

10 -Yr Benchmark Bond ( % ) • Data from Reserve Bank of India showed

7.38 that money supply grew 11.0% on a
7.37
7.36 yearly basis for the fortnight ended Oct
Yield in %

7.35
7.34 6, 2023 compared to an increase of 9.0%
7.33 in the same period of the previous year.
7.32
7.31 Bank Credit to Commercial Sector grew
7.30
16-Oct 17-Oct 18-Oct 19-Oct 20-Oct
13.9% on a yearly basis for the fortnight
Source: CCIL
ended Oct 6, 2023 compared to an
increase of 17.1% in the same period of
the previous year.

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 Domestic Debt Market (Spread Analysis)
• Yields on gilt rose up to 13 bps across the
G-Sec Yield Corporate Yield Spread maturities, barring 3-year paper that was
Maturity
(%) (%) bps
unchanged.
• Corporate bond yields increased between 3 to 12
1 Year 7.47 8.02 55
bps across the curve.
3 Year 7.44 7.91 47 • Difference in spread between AAA corporate bond
and gilt expanded between 2 to 9 bps across the
5 Year 7.50 7.73 23 segments, barring 1-, 4- & 5-year papers that
contracted up to 5 bps.
10 Year 7.50 7.75 25

Source: Refinitiv Values as on Oct 20, 2023

India Yield Curve Shift (%) (W-o-W)

Change in bps
7.60 15
7.40
Yield in %

7.20 10
7.00
6.80 5
6.60
6.40 0
3 Mths 6 Mths 1 Yr 5 Yrs 10 Yrs 20 Yrs 30 Yrs
Source: Refinitiv Change in bps 20-Oct-23 13-Oct-23

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Regulatory Updates in India
• According to the government notification, India has reduced windfall taxes on petroleum
crude, aviation turbine fuel and diesel which will be effective from Oct 18. The windfall tax
on petroleum crude will drop from Rs. 12,200 per ton to Rs. 9,050. Additionally, the
government lowered the windfall tax on diesel from Rs. 5 per litre to Rs. 4 per litre and the
windfall tax on aviation turbine fuel from Rs. 3.50 per litre to Rs. 1 per litre.
• The central government published an amendment to the Prevention of Money-laundering
(Maintenance of Records) Rules, 2005 that tightens record keeping even more in cases of
foreign transactions exceeding Rs. 50,000 in order to combat the funding of terrorism. Every
such transactions will be scrutinized more closely and a reporting entity will be required to
identify clients, confirm their identities and determine the purpose of the business, if it is
not clearly stated.
• As per the notification, the Directorate General of Foreign Trade declared that the ban on
exporting any type of sugar has been prolonged until Oct 31. India, the world's second-
biggest sugar exporter, wants to make sure there is enough sugar available for domestic
use.
• According to media reports, the government has decided to maintain the minimum export
price for basmati rice at $1,200 per tonne in spite of exporters' requests for it to be lowered
to $900 per tonne.

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Regulatory Updates in India (contd..)
• India is going to launch an end-to-end digital authorization systems for imports of laptops,
tablets and personal computers until Sep 2024, aiming to monitor shipments of such
hardware. Commencing on Nov 1, the new ‘import management system’ mandates that
businesses register the quantity and value of their imports. However, the government will
not deny any requests for imports and will use the data for monitoring.
• According to media reports, the Central Board of Direct Taxes has made it clear to the
field formations that assessing officers will not select cases for scrutiny involving startups
registered with the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trades (DPIIT) if
the cases relate to the valuation of angel tax.

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Global News/Economy
• According to the Commerce Department, U.S. housing starts spiked by 7.0% to an annual
rate of 1.358 million in Sep 2023 after plunging by 12.5% to a revised rate of 1.269 million
in Aug 2023.
• The U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman delivered highly anticipated remarks at an Economic
Club of New York luncheon, stating that inflation is "still too high" and cautioning that
further tightening of monetary policy may be required.
• U.K. retail sales dropped 0.9% on a monthly basis, in contrast to the 0.4% increase in Aug
2023. Food store sales grew only 0.2%, following a rise of 1.4% in Aug 2023.
• According to Eurostat, eurozone’s harmonized inflation came in at 4.3% in Sep 2023, well
below the 5.2% posted in Aug 2023.
• The People's Bank of China ramped up its liquidity supply to the banking system via its
medium-term lending facility and reverse repos in order to ease the stress in the market.
The Chinese central bank added CNY 789 billion through one-year MLF. However, the rate
on the MLF was kept unchanged at 2.5%.
• According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s gross domestic product posted an
annual growth of 4.9% in the third quarter of 2023. QOQ, GDP climbed 1.3%, much faster
than the revised 0.5% expansion seen in the second quarter and the expected rate of 1.0%.
• Japan’s consumer prices were up 3.0% on the year in Sep 2023. On a monthly basis,
inflation rose 0.3% - again matching forecasts and accelerating from 0.2% in the previous
month.

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 Global Equity Markets
U.S.
Global Indices • U.S. equity markets rose initially after
Indices 20-Oct-23
1-Week YTD several big companies in U.S. reported
Return Return upbeat earning numbers for the quarter
Russell 3000 2,091.62 -2.84% 21.83% ended Sep 2023. However, the trend
Nasdaq 100 14,560.88 -2.90% 33.10% reversed after the U.S. Fed Chief in its
FTSE 100 7,402.14 -2.60% -0.67% speech warned that U.S. inflation is "still
DAX Index 14,798.47 -2.56% 6.28% too high" and warned additional
Nikkei Average 31,259.36 -3.27% 19.79% interest rate hikes may be needed to
Straits Times 3,076.69 -3.42% -5.37% bring down inflation under control. The
Source: Refinitiv Value as on Oct 20, 2023 ongoing turmoil in the Middle East too
Europe weighed on the market sentiment.
• European equity markets fell as lingering concerns about the ongoing Israel-Hamas
conflict weighed on the market sentiment. Worries about interest rates and inflation also
weighed on the market sentiment after the U.S. Federal Reserve Chief warned that U.S.
inflation is "still too high" and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield hit the 5% mark for the first
time since 2007.
Asia
• Asia equity markets fell amid the conflict in the middle east. Markets remained under
pressure after the U.S. tightened restrictions on China's semiconductor industry and a
prominent property developer missed repayment.

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 Global Debt (U.S.)
US 10-Year Treasury Yield Movement • Yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose
29 bps to close at 4.92% from the
5.05
previous week’s close of 4.63%.
5.00
4.95 • U.S. Treasury prices fell after the U.S.
4.90 Federal Reserve remarked that inflation
Yield in %

4.85
4.80 was “still too high” and warned that
4.75 more interest rate increases might be
4.70 required to bring inflation under
4.65
4.60
control.
4.55 • Further, prices fell after positive U.S.
16-Oct 17-Oct 18-Oct 19-Oct 20-Oct
figures on retail sales and industrial
production for September 2023 sparked
Source: Refinitiv

worries that the U.S. Federal Reserve

would hold interest rates higher for
longer.

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 Commodities Market
Global Commodity Movement Gold
10.50 Rebased to 10 2.55% • Gold prices rose as fears of further
Global Commodity Prices

10.00 2.86% escalation in the Middle East conflict

2.03% boosted the safe-haven appeal of the
9.50
bullion. However, further losses were
9.00
restricted after the U.S. Federal Reserve
8.50 Chief indicated further interest rate hikes
8.00 may be required to bring down U.S.
20-Sep-23 30-Sep-23 10-Oct-23 20-Oct-23 inflation to the 2% target.
Gold Spot ($/Oz) Silver Spot ($/Oz) Brent ($/bbl) Brent Crude
Source: Refinitiv
• Brent crude oil prices rose on worries that
Performance of various commodities the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict may
Commodities Last Closing* 1-Week Ago spread in the Middle East and disrupt
Brent Crude($/Barrel) 97.53 95.59 supply from one of the world’s top-
Gold ($/Oz) 1,981.04 1,931.70 producing regions.
Gold (Rs/10 gm) 60,451 58,092 Baltic Dry Index
Silver ($/Oz) 23.35 22.70
Silver (Rs/Kg) 71,836 69,431
• The index rose over the week due to
improved capesize and panamax activities.
Source: Refinitiv *Value as on Oct 20, 2023

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 Currencies Markets
Rupee
Currency Movement
• The Indian rupee in the spot trade edged up
10.05 Rebased to 10 -0.07% against the U.S. dollar following the Reserve
Currency Prices ( in terms of

10.00
9.95 Bank of India's aggressive intervention and
9.90 0.18% inflow of foreign funds into domestic equity
9.85 -0.20% markets.
INR)

9.80
9.75 -0.85% Euro
9.70
• Euro rose against the U.S. dollar after the U.S.
9.65
9.60
Fed Chairman speech was understood as dovish
20-Sep-23 30-Sep-23 10-Oct-23 20-Oct-23 despite the U.S. central bank warned that
USD GBP Euro JPY further interest rate increases may be required
Source: Refinitiv
to bring inflation under control.
Movement of Rupee vs Other Currencies Pound
Currency Last Closing* 1-Wk Ago • Pound remained almost steady against the U.S.
US Dollar 83.20 83.26 dollar despite U.S. Fed remarks on inflation and
warning of further rate hikes.
Pound Sterling 100.66 101.52
EURO
Yen
87.92 87.76
• Yen fell marginally against the U.S. dollar
100 Yen 55.49 55.60
following remarks from the U.S. Fed on inflation
Source: Refinitiv Figures in INR , *Value as on Oct 20, 2023
and stated that U.S. inflation is "still too high".

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 The Week that was…
16th Oct to 20th Oct

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The Week that was (Oct 16 – Oct 20)
Present Previous
Date Events
Value Value
Monday, • India WPI Food Index (YoY) (Sep) 1.54% 5.62%
October 16, 2023 • Eurozone Trade Balance (Aug) €6.7B €6.3B
• India Passenger Vehicles Sales (YoY) (Sep) 3.10% 11.60%
Tuesday, • U.K. Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (Aug) 7.80% 7.90%
October 17, 2023 • U.S. Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep) 0.30% 0.00%
• U.S. Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) 0.70% 0.80%
• China Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q3) 1.30% 0.50%
• China Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep) 5.50% 4.60%
Wednesday,
• U.S. Housing Starts (MoM) (Sep) 1.358M 1.269M
October 18, 2023
• Japan Imports (YoY) (Sep) -16.30% -17.70%
• U.K. Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Sep) 0.50% 0.30%
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 13) 198K 211K
Thursday,
• Japan National CPI ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (Sep) 2.80% 3.10%
October 19, 2023
• U.K. GfK Consumer Confidence (Oct) -30 -21
• People's Bank of China Interest Rate Decision 3.45% 3.45%
Friday,
• U.K. Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) -0.90% 0.40%
October 20, 2023
• Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) (Sep) -0.20% 0.30%

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 The Week Ahead
23rd Oct to 27th Oct

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The Week Ahead
Day Event
Monday, • German Buba Monthly Report
Oct 23, 2023 • Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Oct) PREL
• U.K. Employment Change (Aug)
• Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey (Nov)
Tuesday, • European Central Bank Lending Survey
Oct 24, 2023 • Germany HCOB Composite PMI(Oct) PREL
• Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI(Oct) PREL
• U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI(Oct) PREL
Wednesday, • Germany IFO – Current Assessment (Oct)
Oct 25, 2023 • U.S. New Home Sales (MoM)(Sep)
• European Central Bank Rate on Deposit Facility
Thursday, • U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)(Q3) PREL
Oct 26, 2023 • U.S. Gross Domestic Product Annualized(Q3) PREL
• U.S. Durable Goods Orders (Sep)
Friday, • U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)(Sep)
Oct 27, 2023 • U.S. Personal Income (MoM)(Sep)

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Disclaimer
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 Thank you for
your time.
Thank you for
your time.

Mutual Fund Investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.