Professional Documents
Culture Documents
vulnerability measurement
vulnerability measurement
Volume 10, Issue 01, January 2019, pp. 29562977, Article ID: IJCIET_10_01_258
Available online at http://www.iaeme.com/ijmet/issues.asp?JType=IJCIET&VType=10&IType=1
ISSN Print: 0976-6308 and ISSN Online: 0976-6316
ABSTRACT
Bhopal, the city of lakes is one of the very beautiful and peaceful cities of India
with least vulnerability to natural hazards like earthquakes, floods, landslides etc. In
recent years residents of this city find themselves vulnerable to urban floods. Earlier
the rainy season in Bhopal used to be so pleasant that people used to take long trips in
the nearby areas by road just to enjoy the rains. Nowadays everyone wants to stay at
home to stay safe during rains to avoidor to combat problems. The floods are due to
natural factors such as heavy rainfall, high floods etc. Blocking of channels or
aggravation of drainage channels, improper land use, deforestation in headwater
regions, etc., are human factors. The focus of this study is mainly upon the urban
flooding scenarios. The paper is based on studying the physical and socio- economic
indicators causing urban floods and their impacts on the city of Bhopal. Bhopal has
been repeatedly subjected to stress and strains of sudden increase and decrease in
population. City being a highly urbanized Municipal area, has given many challenges
to be tackled through planning interventions. Urban floods are one of those
challenges. Bhopal city has no significant history of urban floods. But from last one
decade the city has been facing many situations of urban flooding during the monsoon
season. The un-even distribution of rainfall coupled with Mindless urbanization,
encroachment and filling of natural drainage channels and urban lakes to use the
high-value urban land for buildings are the causes of urban flooding. Vulnerability is
the main construct in flood risk management. Variety of indicators can be introduced
to assess vulnerability therefore selection of more appropriate methodology is vital for
authorities. The more accepted assessing method could be used to assess and identify
the most vulnerable areas. This paper also includes a suitable framework to assess
problematic flood vulnerability in urban areas.
Key words: Urban floods, Climate change, Flood vulnerability assessment; Flood
control measures; Urban planning and development.
Cite this Article: Dr. Rajshree Kamat, Urban Flood Vulnerability Assessment of
Bhopal, M.P., India, International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology 10(1),
2019, pp. 29562977.
http://iaeme.com/Home/issue/IJCIET?Volume=10&Issue=1
1. INTRODUCTION
Flooding in general and urban flooding in particular is not an unknown event in world and in
India. The un- even distribution of rainfall coupled with Mindless urbanization, encroaching
upon and filling up natural drainage channels and urban lakes to use the high-value urban land
for buildings are the cause of urban flooding. Unregulated development in urban area makes
the people in developing countries to occupy the hazardous area, thus, making them
vulnerable to disasters (Kamat R. 2013)
Vulnerability is the main construct in flood risk management. One of the most significant
aims of flood vulnerability assessment is to make a clear association between the theoretical
conceptions of flood vulnerability and the daily administrative process (Hajar Nasiri, 2016).
-most
populous nation, may surge 10-fold by 2030 as cities expand and climate challenges worsen,
according to the World Resources Institute (WRI). A new online global flood-analyzing tool
developed by WRI and four Dutch research agencies showed India topped the list among
countries with population affected by river flooding on average each year (Chaudhary A.
2015). WRI ranked 163 countries by number of people impacted by river flooding. Led by
India, the 15 worst-hit accounted for almost 80% of the total population affected. Bangladesh
was a distant second, then China, followed by Vietnam, Pakistan and Indonesia, the tool
showed.
Annual economic losses from natural disasters have almost quadrupled in the past three
decades, the World Bank said in 2013. In particular, southeast Asia faces a notable increase in
risk, according to Hessel Winsemius, a researcher at Netherlands-based Deltares, one of the
project partners. The Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer estimates current and future potential
exposed GDP, affected population and urban damage from river floods for every state,
country and major river basin in the world.
not a good estimation of what flood risks could be in the
(Chaudhary
A. 2015).
Climate change has played an important role in causing large-scale floods across central
India, including the Mumbai floods of 2006 and 2017. During 1901-2015, there has been a
three-fold rise in widespread extreme rainfall events, across central and northern India
Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Odisha, Jharkhand, Assam
and parts of Western Ghats Goa, north Karnataka and South Kerala (Roxy, M. K et al.,
2017) .The rising number of extreme rain events are attributed to an increase in the
fluctuations of the monsoon westerly winds, due to increased warming in the Arabian Sea.
This results in occasional surges of moisture transport from the Arabian Sea to the
subcontinent, resulting in heavy rains lasting for 23 days, and spread over a region large
enough to cause floods. (Roxy, M. K et al., 2017) (Simpkins, Graham, 2017).
This data as well as experience of last 40-50 years or more shows least vulnerability of
South of Bhopal district towards natural floods because of the rivers.
Analysis has been made using the historical IMD gridded daily temperature (maximum and minimum) and
rainfall data from 1951-2013 (63 years) for the districts of Madhya Pradesh (UNDP, 2017). The amount of
rainfall received has been slightly decreasing over Madhya Pradesh whereas this rainfall has been received in
fewer days over the period. Both of these trends have huge implications in terms of more severe floods, failure of
rain-fed crops, lesser groundwater recharge, enhanced soil erosion, etc. (UNDP, 2017). Projected Climate -
RCP4.5 (low), RCP8.5 (high) (near term: 2021-2050; long term: 2071-2100). Projected extreme events: Heavy
rainfall, heat waves, floods and drought are likely to increase in future and will become increasingly important
and will play a more significant role in disaster management (UNDP, 2017).
Figure 5 Hamidia Road Water logged and Mahamai Ka Bagh Area : The Drainage System is
Overflowed
The problems due to vulnerability of rapidly growing cities to urban flooding increases
with the imperviousness the pace with which urban areas grows increases the imperviousness
that results in decreasing infiltration and percolation rate of water into the ground. the
unplanned urbanisation experienced by the urban areas and the inadequate storm water drains
within the city to carry run-off water and solid waste management is aggreviated by the lack
of coordination and integration among institutions responsible for managing city. Urban
flooding has now become a challenge to urban planners and policy makers for making cities
more resilient to urban floods. This emerging issue of urban flooding must be addressed
through various planning strategies to guide the urban development and make cities more
resilient against urban flooding. Therefore there is need of the study to understand the factors
and to quantify the vulnerability of urban areas due to unplanned and unrealised development.
A detailed literature review was carried out to comprehend the critical issues regarding urban
flooding and for identifying factors responsible for it. Literature review also guided in
understanding the substantial findings through theoretical and methodological contributions to
a particular topic. It was observed after reviewing different case examples from different
context that there are metrological, hydrological and human induced factors which are
responsible for the huge devastations in urban areas during rainy seasons. Strategies from
various best practices were also reviewed to understand the mitigation measures which are
adopted by different cases. Bhopal city has been selected to conduct the study on the basis of
urbanisation in terms of built up and population in 2 decades; and the past three events of
severe inundation of the city in last decade. First being very recent on 17 th July 2018, 4.5
inches of rains in 5 hours, second Bhopal gets 297.4 mm in 24 hrs by 5.30 pm on, July 9,
2016, breaking the record earlier one was 275.7mm on July 22, 1973. (SANDRP, 2016) in the
year 2006 Bhopal received 29cms of rain in a span of 5 hours in the month of August. Water
filled to as high as three to four feet in about 15 low lying areas of Bhopal. First stage of the
assessment shows that the 2006 event was the extreme event of heavy rainfall in which city
had received 54 percent of excess rainfall. The physical infrastructure of the city fails to cope
up the additional rate of runoff from paved surfaces and results in the affectation of 17 percent
partially or completely damaged during the event. Govindpura area was identified as the most
affected area within the city. Next event was recently happened in July August 2016 in
which city had received 17 percent of excess rainfall and the destructions were as similar as
2006. Total 40 thousand people got affected and 5 6 people lost their lives as per the news
reports and around 8519 houses are affected during the event. Old Bhopal and Govindpura
area was identified as the most affected areas in the 2016 event. Recently in July and August
2018 Torrential rains battered Bhopal on claiming many lives overnight. Life in Bhopal was
thrown completely out of gear with houses in old as well as parts of the city flooded.
Population density has been increases from 665 to 855 people per sq. km.
Unauthorized development in the peripheral areas.
Figure 6 Growth of the city and direction of growth sprawl period area
Inadequate sewerage and Storm water drainage
Nearly two-thirds of city does not have a proper sewerage system, especially in the peripheral
areas.
sed drains reach only 28-30 percent of its population.
The sewerage system in New Bhopal (the state capital) area is almost 40 years old. The
system operates through a 108-km sewer line
There is no storm water drain network for the entire city.
The BMC has drawn up a 2,200 crore detailed project report for setting up a sewerage
network and a 1,200 crore for setting up a storm water drain network. But both the mega-
projects are yet to get operational on ground
Water logging
The existing drainage system is stifled by encroachments, which create bottlenecks in nallahs,
leading to waterlogging and flooding every year.
Absence of integrated sewerage or storm water drainage network in the city.
Source: Based on data received from Bhopal Municipal Corporation, 2005-06
Development alters natural systems as vegetation and open spaces are replaced with new
areas of impervious surfaces such as roads, parking lots, roofs, and turf, which greatly reduce
infiltration and thus ground water recharge. Uncontrolled storm water runoff develops into
Floods. (Sheetal Sharma, 2013)
4.1. Aim
Aim being Urban flood vulnerability assessment of Bhopal. Objectives
To study the Socio- economic and environmental parameters of the city along with factors
influencing the urban flood risk.
To prepare a set of Vulnerability indicators from the identified factors.
To assess the identified vulnerability indicators through a suitable framework in the city.
To give physical proposals and planning provisions for the most vulnerable area.
4.2. Methodology
The study was conducted in five stages (Kamat R. 2017), (i) Topic Selection, and also the
theme of the journal given, (ii) Literature Review was further divided in two parts where, the
first one was Base line literature review (the need of the study and the problems were
identified) and another was Detailed literature review (understanding vulnerability concept
and the types of assessment methods). (iii) Indicator development and evaluation of indicators
based on expert survey, (iv) Suitability of indicators and finding the most vulnerable zone and
(v) Suggestive measures & Recommendations.
A methodology that uses indicators derived from geo-data and census data to analyze the
vulnerability to floods in a dense urban setting. A research framework will be developed to
assess and to identify problematic areas, for example, areas with a high number of people
exposed or areas with unfavorable usage.
The study will show that variables referring to the physical exposure of the affected
population are ranked as much more important for the present case than social characteristics,
such as age and gender, which again underlines the suitability of the selected method.
5. LITERATURE REVIEW
5.1. Vulnerability concept
Study aims to develop a framework for flood vulnerability assessment using a set of
indicators to identify the most vulnerable area within the city.
(Vulnerability= Exposure+ Sensitivity- Resilience)
Vulnerability covers variety characteristics of risk such as social, environmental physical
and economic.
VulnerabVulnerabilities must always be assessed in relation to a
specified threat (or hazard): which groups of people are vulnerable to what and why.” (IFRC,
1996)
Source Definition
people to the hazard impact
Source: (UNESCO-IHE)
Exposure is defined as the predisposition of a system to be disrupted by a flooding event due
to its location in the same area of influence. (UNESCO-IHE)
Susceptibility is defined as the elements exposed within the system, which influence the
probabilities of being harmed at times of hazardous floods. (UNESCO-IHE)
The capacity of a system to endure any perturbation, like floods, maintaining significant levels
of efficiency in its social, economical, environmental and physical components. (UNESCO-
IHE)
This group of methods depends on complicated indices with and without weighting; however,
these methods also faced with considerable complexities related with standardization,
weighting and aggregation methods.
Uncertainty is one more struggle with this method. Since each additive layer includes a
diverse variable, struggle about variable Interdependencies must be fixed.
The best pro- posed solution for this concern is weighting variables to reduce their impact in
forming a final expression (Lein 2010).
Indicator based method does not measure flood risk directly, but contribute to evaluating
flood risk. (Nasiri, 2013)
Figure 8 Map showing Zone and Ward wise Division of city Bhopal
Since, the focus of this study to develop the framework for urban flood vulnerability
assessment to identify the most vulnerable area. Data collection and analysis would be
divided into two key tasks. First is to collect the indicator related data and than identifying the
most vulnerable area, where as the second is finding the loopholes within the vulnerable areas
through site survey, expert interviews and HH survey
6. INDICATOR DEVELOPMENT
A range of widely-accepted relevant characteristics and indicators are being presented in
literature, the actual conditions that determine flood vulnerability are to a certain degree very
site-specific, location, and hazard-dependent. To some extent these indicators can also be
classified into social and physical parameters. Given below the list of parameters compiled in
the table which were selected through relevant literature review and field surveys and expert
interviews (Kamat R. 2017).
Thus, Based on literature review social and physical parameter were identified. Thus
vulnerability factors were collected from secondary sources. Literature was also useful for
other Secondary information. Maps were required for spatial information as well as for
identifying.
These indicators (responsible for urban flood vulnerability fit the local conditions and the
flood characteristics best. At the same time, data for their assessment are available. (Table 4).
Table 3 Selection of parameters relevant for the flood vulnerability in the urban area
Physical
No. Relevance Indicators Reference
parameter
PHYSICAL VARIABLES
i) Percentage of
household with Kutcha
roof
Determines the physical fragility towards flood events ii) Percentage of
and indicates the resistance to damage and also the household with Kutcha Schneiderbaue
Main construction
social status wall r (2007);
1 material for roof,
Some types of construction material allow humidity to iii) Percentage of Taubenbock
walls and floor
remain in the walls or floor after flood events which household with Kutcha (2007);
can lead to health problems floor
iv) Percentage of
household with Pucca
floor
Number of households
Condition of People that live in houses with poor condition shows in delipiated condition Schneider
2
household much higher exposure to the floods to the number of total Bauer (2007)
households
Rapid industrial, commercial and economic growth i) Built up v/s Open
promoted flooding with excess rainfall due to the total
UNESCO-IHE
impervious cover of the area.
3 Landuse ii) Proportion of green Stow et al.
The higher the amount of green spaces in an area, the
spaces (2007)
higher the retention potential and the lower the flood
hazard
Topographical elements influence land use and
drainage network elements. Topography changes on
4 Topography Elevation (in meters) UNESCO-IHE
flood parameters, such as maximum flood discharge
and time to peak.
Table 4 Data source and methodology applied for the derivation of information
No. Indicators Data Source Methodology
PHYSICAL INDICATORS
Calculated the Number of total households in the zone made with
Percentage of household material, which are considered to be Kutcha for the construction of
1 Census, 2011
with Kutcha roof roofs of the buildings. The percentage of Kutcha roof houses out of the
total number households was calculated
Percentage of household
2 Census, 2011 Similar as above
with Kutcha wall
Percentage of household
3 Census, 2011 Similar as above
with Kutcha floor
Percentage of household
4 Census, 2011 Similar as above
with Pucca floor
Number of households in
5 Census, 2011 Similar as above
delipiated condition
Bhopal
Digitizing the landuse map of 2005 and than calculating the
6 Built up v/s Open Development plan
percentage of built up cover to the total area of the zone.
2005
Bhopal
Proportion of green Digitizing the landuse map of 2005 and than calculating the
7 Development plan
spaces percentage of green cover to the total area of the zone.
2005
8 Elevation (in meters) Bhuvan (DEM) Preparing the contour map in ArcGIS.
Bhopal
Proximity to inundation Development plan Overlaying the map of inundation areas one over the overlaying the
9
areas 2005 and media zonal map of Bhopal.
coverage
10 Porosity of the soil Land use map Depends on the percentage of built up area present in the zone. More
Rank I II III IV V
15) Sex ratio
16) Household size
17) Illiterate population to the total
population
18) Non working population to the total
population
Source:Expert survey
These experts were from the disaster management institute, EPCO (Environmental
Planning and Coordination Organization), MANIT (Department of Architecture and
Planning).
The indicators were ranked in respect to the urban flooding, like in the case of seasonal
flooding indicators do not play a major role because the seasonal floods are very prompt and
may have a huge impact on urban areas. But when we talk about urban floods, these are
highly influenced by the indicators given above and every indicator has its own significance
in causing floods.
Suitability of indicators in the framework (Identifying the most vulnerable zone The data
was collected ward wise and grouped together as zones for the analysis of the framework.
This framework comprises comparison of all the 14 zones w.r.t to each zone. The comparison
is depicted in the form of graphs and maps, later through the preparation of maps ranking of
each zone was done on the scale of 1-5 has been done, where 5 is most vulnerable and 1 is
least vulnerable. Data was entered into excel sheet, which was later linked to GIS and the
maps were generated for each indicator.
Zone getting the highest value depending on the vulnerability was ranked as of highest
vulnerability (5). The same process was repeated for individual indicators.
7. ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK
In this section comparison of each zone has been done as per their degree of vulnerability
(Kamat R. 2017). Each zone was ranked on the scale of 1 to 5 for each indicator. Rank 5 is
given to the most vulnerable zone for a particular indicator and rank 1 is for the least
vulnerable zone.
5 4 3 2 1
Most
Moderate Least vulnerable
vulnerable
Weightage given by the experts has also been considered as visible in the table VII. The
values are put in the formula as given below:
where, VI is vulnerability index, v i is rank given by maps generated on GIS and q i is the
weightage given by the experts.
ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK:
Comparison of zones
ZONE
1
ZONE 250 ZONE
14 2
200
ZONE ZONE
13 150 3
100
ZONE ZONE
12 50 4
0
ZONE ZONE
11 5
ZONE ZONE
10 6
ZONE ZONE
9 7
ZONE
8
Total value after putting the values in framework
The zone 4 and 9 are identified as the vulnerable zones in the case of urban floods, but
even in the zones we have the most critical areas having very poor conditions and influencing
the whole zone, resulting into the most vulnerable zone. So, the same way these zones have
few problematic areas like slums or densely populated areas, which collectively affect the
whole zone. Figure 8 over here depicts few of these areas.
8. CONCLUSION
An optimal engineering solution may not be the best because of social and institutional
constraints, which means that traditional engineering codes reflect criteria which are not
anymore politically permissible. The origins and consequences of flooding have to be fully
understood, particularly in developing countries, in order to propose and justify adequate
institutional strengthening (regulatory agencies, conservation authorities) which should
overcome existing institutional and political barriers. Broad multi-media promotion of non-
structural urban flood management measures should be carried out particularly at the level of
local communities where flood protection facilities are exposed to atrophy due to globally
experienced budgetary cutting. Urban flood risk depends on a combination of components
comprising hazard and vulnerability. It underlines the combination of natural and human
factors that create flood risks. Urban flood planning and management measures have to be
planned across administrative and sector boundaries. Institutionalized links between
concerned authorities facilitate cooperative planning. Successful urban flood risk management
is obtained if structural and non-structural measures are implemented. The implementation of
multiple purpose measures enables municipalities to achieve multiple goals such as flood
mitigation, water supply, space for recreational activities, groundwater recharge and
improvement of urban environment. Monitoring and evaluation of implemented measures
enable the identification of best practices under the specific circumstances and help to
constantly improve flood risk management plans. Community participation in flood risk
assessment as well as in planning and implementation of risk management measures is a key
for the success of urban flood risk management plans. As per the outcome of the research,
further research should be done for proper preparedness and response during future urban
flood of not only Bhopal but also other cities. In the context of urbanization, disaster risk
increases as a result of lack of smart planning/sustainable city planning. Vulnerability
assessment based planning for the future risks found above Show the link between DRR and
city and urban planning which will further guide for future practices/policies of town and
urban planning which is the benefit of making risk reduction an integral part of local
development. The importance of good information for urban risk assessment, government
civil society collaboration, and links between local, national and regional levels of
government is also evident.
REFERENCES
[1] Roxy, M. K.; Ghosh, Subimal; Pathak, Amey; Athulya, R.; Mujumdar, Milind;
Murtugudde, Raghu; Terray, Pascal; Rajeevan, M. (2017-10-03). "A threefold rise in
widespread extreme rain events over central India". Nature
Communications. 8 (1). doi:10.1038/s41467-017-00744-9. ISSN 2041-1723.
[2] Simpkins, Graham. "Hydroclimate: Extreme rain in India". Nature Climate Change. 7(11):
760760. doi:10.1038/nclimate3429.
[3] UNDP. 2017. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Madhya Pradesh
[4] http://www.mpsdma.mp.gov.in/floods-2/
[5] Kamat R., Rudrapriya Yadav, (2017). Framework for Urbanflood vulnerability
Assessment. International journal for studies in Planning and Management , 03 (07), 247-
257.
[6] Garvelmann et al. (2015). Spatio-temporal controls of snowmelt and runoff generation
during rain-on-snow events in a mid-latitude mountain catchment. . Hydrological
Processes .
[7] Agrawal, S. (2017, January). RMSI. Retrieved from Rising Urban Floods in the Country.
[8] Batica, J. (2015). Methodology for flood resilience assessment in urban environments and
mitigation strategy development.
[9] CBSE. (2006). Natural Hazards and Disaster Management. (Vol. I). (A. D.-U. Shri M.P
Sajnani, Ed.) Delhi: Preet Vihar.: Central Board of Secondary Education.
[10] Ganaie et al. (2013). Delineation of flood prone area using Normalised Water Index and
[11] Ghanbarpour. (2014). Floodplain inundation analysis combined with contingent valuation:
Implications for sustainable flood risk management. Water Resource Management .
[12] Governemnt of India, D. m. (2004). Disaster management in India.