1.

INTRODUCTION

This study analyzes the changes in rainfall using the data from 1985 to 2018 across
India at meteorological divisional level. We utilized Pettitt test proposed by Pettitt and
Standard Normal Homogeneity test (SNHT) developed by Alexandersson and Moberg and
Buishand’s Range test to explore the presence of the abruptly shifting change points in the
time series annual rainfall dataset for Ranichauri, TehriGarhwal, Uttarakhand.

The Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Sen’s Innovative trend analysis were performed to
analyze the rainfall trend. The magnitude of the slope of trend is estimated using the
approach described by Sen(1968). Sen’s slope estimator is found to be a powerful tool to
determine the magnitude of the trend line.(Praveen, B., Talukdar, S., Shahfahad et al.,
2020)

Rainfall is a key part of hydrological cycle and alteration of its pattern directly affect
the water resources. The changing pattern of rainfall in consequence of climate change is
now concerning issues to water resource managers and hydrologists. (Srivastava et al. and
Islam et al.). reported that the changes of rainfall quantities and frequencies directly
changing the stream flow pattern and its demand, spatiotemporal allocation of run-off,
ground water reserves and soil moisture. Consequently, these changes showed the
widespread consequences on the water resource, environment, terrestrial ecosystem, ocean,
bio-diversity, agricultural and food security.

Rainfall is a continuous random variable that fluctuates with time, geographical area,
and altitude in space. Total rainfall and its distribution throughout the year are significant
for improved cropping pattern planning, and irrigation of crops, design of soil and water
conservation structures, and rain water collection. The majority of hydrological data is
historical, gathered from natural phenomena that can only be witnessed once and will most
likely not occur again. Because hydrologic data are the only source of information on
which hydrologic investigations are normally based, their measurement has been steadily
increasing. Due to the intricate nature of the hydrologic cycle, it is not always possible to
predict precisely the future occurrences of events from previous data.

In most studies, researchers have used parametric and non-parametric methods like
regression test, Mann-Kendall test, Kendall rank correlation test, Sen’s slope

1
estimation and Spearman rank correlation test. In the present study, the non-parametric test
like Mann-Kendall test was applied to detect the trend in rainfall as it is one of the most
often applied global methods for trend detection in hydrology, climatology and
meteorology. One of the major reason to use non-parametric tests in the present study is
these can be used on independent time series data and are also not much sensitive to
outliers. However, the change detection analysis in the climatologic and hydrological data
series is the important aspect for the trend analysis throughout the world. The change
detection methods include the Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT), Buishand
range test and the Pettitt’s test. The trend analysis was carried out before the change point
analysis in many researches. This approach can lead to misleading results as the
information obtained from change point detection analysis has not been considered for the
trend analysis. Hence, Li et al. highly recommended performing the change detection
analysis first followed by the trend analysis. The results obtained from this approach are
more reasonable and reliable.

2
 2. REVIEW OF LITERATURE

In this chapter the work of different researchers on rainfall variation patter and trend
analysis of last 30 years have been reviewed.

Kuteel (1987) analyzed monthly rainfall data from different stations in the Galli
(Northern Israel) for the period of 1931 to 1980 to study the rainfall variation. The data were
spitted up into the two sub periods, 1931-1960 and 1961-1980. The mean monthly rainfall
for different stations for the period was correlated with longitude, latitude and altitude of
each station. It was found that at the beginning of rainy season (September to November)
and in autumn the high intensity rains occurred along the coastal plain in the spotty areas. In
months of January and February in both the periods (1931-1960) and (1961-1980) the
distance from the coastal line does not affect the rain distribution from December to March
in the first period and from January to April in the Second period.

Ramanamurty et al. (1987) studied long term variations in the rainfall over upper
Narmada catchments by analyzing daily rainfall data of 38 stations from 1901-1980. The
homogeneity of the series was tested by Swed and Eisenhert's run test, the randomness
against trend was tested by using Mann-Kendell's rank statistics and the nature of the trend
was tested by Cramer's t test. It was found that the period of June to September accounts for
90 percent annual rainfall. The rainfall depth was above normal (20 percent) on 11 years and
also in deficit in 11 years.

Yadav et al. (1987) analyzed rainfall data of nine stations in Balson catchment of
Darjeeling hills to study the distribution of rainfall within the catchment and to understand
variability and trend of mean annual rainfall. The annual rainfall series were subjected to
statistical analysis to test trend, oscillation and persistence. The Mann Kendall's rank
statistics shows significant increasing trend in four stations. Persistence was observed in two
stations. The mean annual rainfall of nine stations varied from 241 cm to 403 cm with a
coefficient of variation ranging from 9.76 to 19.65 percent.

Shih (1988) analyzed rainfall data of five stations for a period of 50 years from the
year 1924 to 1974 in South Florida, USA by separating rainfall data into three periods viz.

3
 A(1924-1939), B(1940-1959), C(1960-1974) and D(entire period). The chance of daily
rainfall greater than or equal to a given depth (2.5 and 7.5 mm) for annual dry season and
wet season for all the five stations were calculated for all the periods. It was found that the
chance of rainfall occurrence is about 25% during the season (November to April) and 75%
during the wet season (May to October). The chance of rainfall occurrence showed a
significant decrease for the months of February, March and April.

Singh et al. (1988) analyzed daily rainfall data of 1901 to 1980 periods of Kerala to
study long term changes in the rainfall processes. Rainfall time distribution characteristics
was quantified by Oliver precipitation concentration index using trail rainfall of May to
October(MO) period and modified precipitation concentration index were developed for
identification of a year as hydrological flood/drought year. Different series of both the sub
regions (North Kerala and South Kerala) except MO rainfall series of North Kerala showed
considerable decreasing tendency.

Singh et al. (1989) analyzed nine years rainfall data of Gangtok, Sikkim to study the
pattern of rainfall. Onset of effective monsoon (OEM), mean and median data of OEM,
standard deviation, quartile deviations, earliest and latest probable dates OEM with
probability of wet and critical dry spells were computed. The analysis showed that onset on
monsoon between 19-24 February with an average of 33mm, rainfall. There was least
variation in the dates of monsoon in different years.

Yadava and Vaish (1991) studied daily rainfall data for period of 28 years to
evaluate rainfall pattern. The Olivers precipitation concentration index (PCI) was calculated
from trail rainfall and modified precipitation concentration index (MPCI) was obtained. The
difference in mean at JO (June to October) rainfalls PCIS and MPCI of two sub periods
were tested by student 't' test. Regression analysis between JO rainfall time and MPCI time
series were made. The trend JO rainfall series, PCI series and MPCI series were tested. It
was observed that there was no difference between means of JO rainfall series, PCI series
and MPCI series.

Chaurasia et al. (1995) analyzed 30 years meteorological data of Ludhiana. They

observed that annual mean temperature of Ludhiana is about 23.2 degree Celsius and total
rainfall and evaporation is 708 mm 802 mm, respectively and all the three parameters show
an increasing trend. The temperature is rising at a rate of 0.05 degree Celsius per year. The

4
soil temperature during summer months is very close to maximize temperature. Rainfall is
almost nil during 40th and 50th standard week of the year.

Rath et al. (1996) analyzed the forecasting of dry and wet spells for agricultural
management and planning of Boudh district of Orissa, situatd on the bank of river Mahaudi.
Markov Chain has been applied to know the probability of having different condition of dry
and wet pentads and also forward and backward accumulation of rain water suitable for the
crop production.

Bhatt et al. (1996) attempted frequency analysis of one day maximum rainfall data
by analyzing the 24 hours daily rainfall data (1968-1991) of Datia. The observed values
were estimated by Weibull's formula and expected values were estimated by extreme value
type -1, Log Normal and Log Pearson type III distribution. The values obtained by three
different probability distribution functions have been compared with the observed values.
The analysis indicated that Log Pearson type III distribution gave the closest fit to the
observed data, hence, it can be used to forecast the maximum daily rainfall.

Upadhyaya (1997) developed the technique to predict consecutive days maximum

rainfall using one day maximum rainfall. He correlated one day maximum rainfall of
various period to consecutive days maximum rainfall of same return period. Analysis
showed that 2 to 6 consecutive days maximum rainfall of 2 to 20 years return periods at
Bhubaneshwar can be predicted with the help of 1 day maximum rainfall of the same return
period and percentage error in the predicted rainfall is less than one percent.

Kumar et al. (1998) analyzed monthly rainfall data for a period of 12 years for
Aonla, Bareilly, for probability analysis. Normal distribution, log normal distribution,
square root transformation and mixed distribution were used for fitting the historical
monthly data. The goodness of fit of different distribution was tested by Kolmogorove
Smirnov test and by percent deviation between measured and computed values of rainfall.
The probability wise minimum percentage deviation at 0.125, 0.375, 0.625 and 0.875
probability levels were 0.005, 0.009, 0.017 and 0.197 respectively in case of mixed
distribution. Therefore, mixed distribution gave best fit for monthly data for Aonla.

Mishra et al. (1999) subjected long term rainfall records of Kokrajhar and Dhubri
(Assam) and Cooch-Behar (West Bengal) to statistical analysis and probability distribution.
A range of homogeneous probability distribution was fitted in meteorological weeks in

5
active monsoon period. The most appropriate probability distribution were attributed to
weekly rainfall amounts Rath et al. (1996) analyzed the forecasting of dry and wet spells for
agricultural management and planning of Boudh district of Orissa, situated on the bank of
river Mahaudi. Markov Chain has been applied to know the probability of having different
condition of dry and wet pentads and also forward and backward accumulation of rain water
suitable for the crop production.

Bhatt et al. (1996) attempted frequency analysis of one day maximum rainfall data
by analyzing the 24 hours daily rainfall data (1968-1991) of Datia. The observed values
were estimated by Weibull's formula and expected values were estimated by extreme value
type -1, Log Normal and Log Pearson type III distribution. The values obtained by three
different probability distribution functions have been compared with the observed values.
The analysis indicated that Log Pearson type III distribution gave the closest fit to the
observed data, hence, it can be used to forecast the maximum daily rainfall.

Upadhyaya (1997) developed the technique to predict consecutive days maximum

rainfall using one day maximum rainfall. He correlated one day maximum rainfall of
various period to consecutive days maximum rainfall of same return period. Analysis
showed that 2 to 6 consecutive days maximum rainfall of 2 to 20 years return periods at
Bhubaneshwar can be predicted with the help of 1 day maximum rainfall of the same return
period and percentage error in the predicted rainfall is less than one percent.

Kumar et al. (1998) analyzed monthly rainfall data for a period of 12 years for
Aonla, Bareilly, for probability analysis. Normal distribution, log normal distribution,
square root transformation and mixed distribution were used for fitting the historical
monthly data. The goodness of fit of different distribution was tested by Kolmogorove
Smirnov test and by percent deviation between measured and computed values of rainfall.
The probability wise minimum percentage deviation at 0.125, 0.375, 0.625 and 0.875
probability levels were 0.005, 0.009, 0.017 and 0.197 respectively in case of mixed
distribution. Therefore, mixed distribution gave best fit for monthly data for Aonla.

Mishra et al. (1999) subjected long term rainfall records of Kokrajhar and Dhubri
(Assam) and Cooch-Behar (West Bengal) to statistical analysis and probability distribution.
A range of homogeneous probability distribution was fitted in meteorological weeks in
active monsoon period. The most appropriate probability distribution were attributed to

6
weekly rainfall amounts of 35, 10 and 10 years long data records of Kokrajhar, Dhubri and
Cooch Behar respectively. The most appropriate probability distribution was assigned to a
particular meteorological week. The probability density functions were then used to forecast
weekly rainfall amount at different probability levels of equaling or exceedance. Weekly
water resources of the area in term of rainfall occurrence were assessed with the help of
these stochastic predictions of rainfall.

Agnihotri (1999) used Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) devised by Oliver

and further modified (MPCI) by Singh et al. (1989) to work out the pattern of intra annual
distribution of rainfall based on 39 years (1958-1996) rainfall data recorded at Chandigarh
situated at Shivalik foothills. Kharif and Rabi season rainfall series were found to be non
random as tested through a non parametric (turning point) test at 5% level of significance.
Mean Kharif season rainfall during, 1957-1967, 1968-1977, 1978-1987 and 1988-1996 was
found to be significantly' test at 5% level of significance. Mean Rabi season rainfall during
1968-1977 and 1978-1987 was also found significantly different. MPCI values were used to
classify drought and flood years.

Mohanty et al. (2001) studied the rainfall characteristics of Vidarbha region of the
daily data of 33 years (1966-1998) using frequency analysis. Expected monthly, seasonal
and annual rainfall values at different probability levels were determined. At 80%
probability enough rainfall is available for growing Kharif crops. The annual maximum
daily rainfall value which is important for the design of hydraulic structure and soil
conservation measures was determined for 50 and 100 years of return period and found as
252.1 and 282.6 mm per day respectively. The depth duration frequency relation of rainfall
of Nagpur was also developed.

Soni and Kumar (2002) studied the weather cycle phenomenon for Malwa region
of M.P. Daily rainfall data from 1991-2000 from eight districts of Malwa region were
analyzed using Markov chain model. Conditional probability, dry and wet spell and dry-wet
(DW) and wet-dry (WD) cycles for various lengths were estimated. Chi-square tests for
goodness of fit were applied and found acceptable at 1 and 5% significance. The frequency
of four days dry spell in the months of July and August were found as 6 and 5 respectively.
Also, the total number of DW or WD spell having 1 and 2 frequency was higher in the
months of June and September. The highest frequency of dry-wet cycle of three days was
observed as 10 and 5 in the month of July and August respectively.

7
 Sharma and Kumar (2003 ) analyzed rainfall of 20 years of Nagpur district to
suggest the probable date of onset of monsoon and occurrence of dry spells using criteria
given by Raj (1978) and Markov chain model. The study revealed that the earliest and latest
dates of onset of effective monsoon are 16th June and 15th August respectively. Similarly,
the earliest and latest probable dates of withdrawal of effective monsoon are 4th August and
9th September. The expected dates of start of first and second critical dry spell were worked
out to be 11th July and 16th August respectively. The respective duration of first and second
critical dry spell was obtained as 20 and 17 days.

Tripathi and Sikka (2004) analyzed rainfall data of Udhagamandalam, Nilgiris,

Tamil Nadu, India from 1984-1997 by grouping the rainfall data into 10 rainfall depth
classes. It was observed that only once in 14 years more than 100 mm rainfall in a day
occurred. It was found that about 51% of the rainfall is distributed over 40% of the day with
rain of 5.1 to 25 mm a day. The analysis for Glen Morgan shows that 88% of rain with
98.7% of days is in rainfall of 50.1 mm or less a day. It was observed that number of days
with rain appears to have been reduced from 157 per year to 131 per year in between 1956-
62 to 1984-97.

Sena and Kurothe (2004) analyzed sixteen years (1983-1998) daily rainfall data of
Kapadwanj Taluka, District Kheda, Gujarat for annual, monthly and daily rainfall
distribution. Five distribution functions such as Normal, Log normal, Gumbel, Pearson Type
3 and Log Pearson Type 3 were fitted to one, two, three, four and five days maximum
rainfall depths. Gumbel distribution fits better to all consecutive days rainfall maxima.
Similarly the annual series was found to confirm the suitability of Normal distribution.
Results of the analysis were, then, used to determine hydrological parameters from daily
rainfall records. Rainfall events of required design frequency were estimated for designing
suitable water harvesting, drainage and recharge structures in the watershed.

Dabral and Jhajjaria (2005) analyzed daily rainfall data of Doimukh (Itanagar) for
the period of thirteen years. Mean seasonal rainfall of pre-monsoon (March-May), monsoon
(June-October) and post monsoon (November-December) period were observed to be
837.21 mm (72.36%),2580.40 mm (23.48%) and 148.3 mm (4.15%) respectively. During
monsoon, pre-monsoon and post monsoon period value of mean rainy days were obtained to
be 84.4 (17%), 35.9 (26.9%) and13.3 (9.96%). The minimum and maximum values were
obtained in the month of December and June respectively. Normal and gamma probability

8
distribution functions fitted well to seventeen and fifteen number of weeks.

Dingre and Shahi (2006) reported that Drainage structures are generally designed
on the basis of drainage coefficient which usually depends upon consecutive days maximum
rainfall corresponding to designed return periods varying from 2 to 20 years and crop
tolerance period. The rainfall data of Srinagar region were procured to investigate the
predictability of various consecutive days rainfall from one day rainfall 1-20 years return
period. The Chi-square test was performed to test the agreement between the predicted and
observed rainfall of various consecutive days. The analysis showed that 2 to 6 consecutive
days maximum rainfall of 2 to 20 years return period can be predicted with a reasonable
accuracy with the help of one day maximum rainfall to the same return period at Srinagar
region of Kashmir Valley.

Hooda (2006) worked out the probability distribution of drought, normal and
abnormal events for monthly rainfall at Hisar (Haryana). It was found that July is the wettest
month with average rainfall of 129.1 mm followed by August with 118.2 mm. Out of 552
months in 46 year period draught, normal and abnormal months were 46.9%, 40.2% and
12.9% respectively. The 46 annual rainfall events have also been analyzed and categorized
as drought, normal and abnormal. The analysis showed that average annual rainfall at Hisar
was 453 mm with a standard deviation of 170.5 mm. It was further observed that 19.5% of
the 46 years were draughts implying a likelihood of one drought in every five years period.
Rank correlation based test indicated the increasing trend of rainfall in June. Correlation
between monthly rainfall for monsoon season (July to September) and annual rainfall events
was found to be highly significant.

Ranwah et al. (2007) evaluated performance of the forecasting made by the

National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast Department of Science and
Technology, New Delhi. Validation of forecast received from NCMRWF was carried out by
comparison with measured meteorological parameters collected from the meteorological
observatory, C.T.A.E., Udaipur. It was observed that forecasting made during 6 years (1998-
1999 to 2003-2004) for cloud cover, wind speed direction, maximum temperature and
minimum temperature were found to be correct by 82%, 85%, 73%, 63% and 59%
respectively. It was found that cloud cover, precipitation and wind speed was forecasted
quiet satisfactory but wind direction, maximum temperature and minimum temperature
could not be satisfactory forecasted.

9
 Tripathi et al. (2008) studied of climate change at Roorkee, Uttarakhand. The result
of five yearly moving averages showed increase in rainfall at a rate of 6.16 mm per year,
relative humidity at a rate of 0.16% per year, minimum temperature at a rate of 0.009 degree
Celsius per year and sunshine hours at a rate of 0.15 hours per year and decrease in rainy
days at a rate of 0.03 days per year, maximum temperature at a rate of 0.05 degree Celsius
per year and wind speed at a rate of 0.03 km per year. These observations confirmed the
mild trend in climate change in Roorkee which is most probable due to localized human
interventions.

Chakraborty and Mandal (2008) analyzed twelve years' (1990-2001) historical

rainfall data of Sagar Island and revealed that the total mean annual rainfall is 1924.19 mm
and 50% of the years received more than the mean rainfall. Such variation had significant
positive correlation (r =0.924**) between rainfall and rainy days. However, maximum
(148.23 mm) rain occurred in 29th week followed by 36th week. The rainfall was found to
be bi-modal in nature having two peaks usually at 29th and 37th weeks, respectively. With
years, shift in the peaks has been observed. In 41.7% of the years the first peak shifted to the
month of July and/or August instead of June, whereas, the second peak shifted to the month
of September in 57% of the years. Such shift was markedly observed after 1995 indicating a
considerable change in climatic behavior. However, the dependable rainfall at 76.90
probability is expected to occur in every year during 24th to 29th weeks. The monthly
dependable rainfall is expected to occur in every year during the month of May to October
with major concentration during June to September.

Kothari et al. (2009) observed that conventionally, probabilities of dry spells are
computed for different standard meteorological weeks without consideration of the onset of
monsoon in each year and information for crop growth period is assumed based on normal
week of onset of monsoon. This approach has been compared with a rational approach
called "Onset of monsoon approach" wherein the weekly rainfall data are arranged by
considering onset of monsoon as datum in each year. Weekly rainfall data of Bhilwara
district in Rajasthan state for a period of 45 years have been used for this analysis.
Considerable difference has been observed in the initial land conditional probability of
intervening dry spells due to these two approaches but the new approach has been found
more rational as compared to conventional approach. Therefore, it has been adopted for
analysis of dry spells and availability of surplus water at tehsil level in the district. The onset

10
of monsoon was observed earliest in 22nd week and latest in 31" week in the district. The
analysis of dry spells reveals that probability of dry spell is highest (> 75%) during late crop
growth period (10th week from onset of monsoon). On the contrary, surplus water (20 mm)
is available during initial to mid crop growth season (5th to 9th week of monsoon season).
The probability of 100 mm surplus water during crop season ranges from 47 to 96 per cent
at Asind and Mandalgarh, respectively. Suitable rainwater management practices and crop
planning at micro (Tehsil) level have been suggested for efficient utilization of rainfall.

Senapati et al. (2009) analyzed (Weekly rainfall, onset of effective monsoon,

withdrawal of monsoon, onset and duration of critical dry spells and (weekly pan
evaporation at different probabilities using Doorenbos and Pruitt's modified equation for
Panderpali-I micro-watershed in Baragaon block of district Sundargarh, Orissa. Rainfall
events at 70 per cent and pan evaporation at 20 per cent probability of exceedance have been
considered for crop planning in rainfed uplands for kharif and rabi seasons. The weekly
consumptive use of kharif crops was estimated assuming average crop coefficient value as
1.0. The results revealed that the duration of monsoon period is 92 days and short duration
crops of 90-95 days should be preferred to be grown in rainfed uplands. There is chance of
drought towards the middle of 28th and last part of 33rd week coinciding with the initial
growth and flowering stages of most of the rainfed crops, respectively. Effect of drought can
be overcome with provision of suitable conservation measures, in-situ and ex-situ storage of
excess runoff water in ponds and tanks for supplemental irrigation at the time of need during
kharif. If possible, one or two tank irrigations at flowering or seed formation stage will be
beneficial to the crops grown under residual soil moisture during rabi after the harvest of
kharif crops with mulching of the crop residues over the soil surface.

Lisha et al. (2010) transformed available daily rainfall data for 81 years (1901-1969,
1990- 1996 and 2001-2005) of five stations Kannur, Kozhikode, Quilandy, Vythiri and
Vadakara in northern Kerala into annual, southwest monsoon, northeast monsoon and non
monsoon components for each year and analyzed for a study of the rainfall behavior.
Regression analysis of southwest monsoon rainfall and annual rainfall showed a variation in
intercept from 734.60 to1153.86 and in slope from 0.87 to 1.07 with standard error of
estimate varies from 282.93 to389.82, Correlation analysis shows the variation in coefficient
from 0.80 to 0.95. Maximum values of annual and southwest monsoon rainfall yield a
parallel behavior. Average annual and15southwest monsoon rainfall values also yield a

11
parallel behavior. Overall southwest monsoon rainfall is 76.99% of annual rainfall in the
area of study. The variation of annual and southwest monsoon rainfall show a regular
pattern in increase or decrease.

Jakhar et al. (2011) concluded that the knowledge of probable period of onset of
monsoon, amount of rainfall and its distribution over the cropping season are important for
timely seedbed preparation, selection of crop varieties and choice of cropping pattern. The
probability analysis of rainfall data revealed that the onset of monsoon is on 11th June. The
probability distribution of seasonal rainfall indicated that the occurrence of 75% probable
rainfall in kharif, summer and rabi season are 1095.5 mm, 91.4 mm and 83 mm respectively,
whereas 1274.5 mm is the annual rainfall. It was forecasted that the occurrence of rainy days
(>2.5 mm rainfall per day) is 70 days per annum

Chand et al. (2011) analyzed the historical rainfall data for the period of 34 years
(1975-2008) of Jhansi in Bundelkhand agro climatic zone of U.P. to know weekly, monthly,
seasonal and annual probabilities at different levels of rainfall for suitable crop planning.
The analysis revealed that 90.3% of the total annual rainfall is received during SW monsoon
months (June- September) with high intensity causes moderate to severe erosion. Post
monsoon or winter months (October to February) account 7.1% while pre monsoon or
summer months (March - May) accounts 2.6% of total yearly rainfall. Analysis also showed
that the frequency of drought has been increased since the year 2000 onwards in the zone.
The maximum amount of rainfall is received during August (286.0mm) and minimum in
April (3.1mm) month. Occurrence of 70% of initial probability of a dry week from 1 to 24th
week and the conditional probability of wet week preceded by a wet week is also high from
26th to 37th week. The Kharif season crops and their varieties may be chosen with the
growing period to avoid moisture stress as well as In-situ moisture conservation practices
like mulching, use of anti-transpirants, control of weeds, adequate plant stands should be
adopted and to mitigate the effect of dry spell during critical crop growth stages provide live
saving or supplemental irrigation through use of sprinkler system. The sowing of rainfed
crops in rabi season may be completed between 40th to 41nd standard week because
subsequent week has rare chance to get rains. It is also indicated that the pulses and oilseeds
whose average water requirements are 300 mm could successfully be cultivated during rabi
season.

Subhash et al. (2012) observed that the mean annual rainfall of 19 years (1989-

12
2008) of Bihar is 1138.2mm with standard deviation 158.6 mm and coefficient of variation
14%. Variability and trends of annual and monthly monsoonal rainfall for all the districts of
Bihar have been analyzed and due to change in rainfall, the district-wise change in area of
rice, wheat and maize has also been evaluated. There is 0.5% increase in mean annual
rainfall during 1999-2008 as compared to 1989-1998. Month August is the 2nd wettest
month in all the districts except Purnia and Katihar during the 1" period. On the other hand,
the districts such as Nalanda, Munger, Sheikhpura, Jamui, Bhagalpur, Banka, Saharsa,
Madhepura, Purnia, Katihar and Khagaria have been observed 2nd wettest month in
September during 2nd period. Rainfall variability caused a change of -5.3% in rice area
between triennium ending averages 1999-2000 and 2007-08. However, in case of wheat a
meager increase of 1.6% was recorded. A slight change of -0.4% has been noticed during
kharif maize, and 5.0 and 12.7%, in rabi and summer maize, respectively. As far as zonal
change is concerned, all the zones, except zone IIIA had a positive change in area of kharif
maize and more over zone IIIB recorded a highest change of 57.7% due to decrease in
monthly rainfall during August and September months.

Manikandan et al. (2012) determined trends in the annual and seasonal total rainfall
over ParambikulamAliyar sub basin of Tamil Nadu using 37 years (1972-2008) monthly
rainfall data at four rain-gauge stations (Aliyar Nagar, Pollachi, Vettaikaranpudur and
Anamalai). The procedure is based on the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test for the trend
and the nonparametric Sen's method for the magnitude of the trend. Significant positive
trend was observed at Anamalai station for annual and North East monsoon rainfall series
and significant negative trend has been noticed in the South West monsoon of
Vettaikaranpudur. The maximum increase of rainfall out of four stations was experienced by
Anamalai in annual rainfall (22.47 mm/year) and maximum reduction was found for
Vettaikaranpudur (-6.14 mm/year) in South West monsoon. The presence of trend in annual
and seasonal rainfall series determined by Mann- Kendall Z statistics and Sen's Slope
estimator reflected in the linear regression analysis.

Subudhi et al. (2012) study probability analysis of annual, seasonal, monthly and
pentad rainfall data of Kandhamal district from 1968 to 2009(42 years). Pentad, monthly,
seasonal and annual rainfall were analyzed. Probability analysis was made and equations
were fitted to different distributions and best fitted equations were tested and chi-square test
was made. It is observed that rainfall during June to September is more than 100 mm and

13
cropping pattern like paddy (110 days) mustard is suitable to the region. Also, if the kharif
rain can be harvested and reused for another rabi crop by using sprinkler or drip irrigation, it
will give benefit to the farmers. The pentad analysis shows that the pentads which received
less than 12.5 mm may be looked into at 75% probability level and different steps may be
made to irrigate during that period from pond or irrigation. The field should be ploughed
before 33rd pentad and should be kept ready for sowing. Sowing can be done in the 34th
pentad. From 43rd to 50th pentad, the rainfall is almost constant. The availability of rain
water for crop is assured at 75% probability levels. Excess runoff should be collected in
some storage structures so as to use it for irrigating post-monsoon crops.

Sharma and Dubey (2013) analyzed rainfall under changing climatic scenario for
better planning of farming practices in semi arid region of Uttar Pradesh. Analysis showed
that there was a decreasing trend of rainfall as well as rainy days during last decade (2000-
2010). Occurrence of frequent long dry spell of 10-15 was recorded during the period,
indicated the need of construction of water harvesting structures for life saving irrigation for
the survival of crops. Probability analysis showed that occurrence of probable rainfall was
of 440.0 mm, 26.5 mm, 11.9 mm and 508.0 mm, respectively for the kharif rabi summer
season and annual at 76% confidence level, the occurrence of rainy days was found to be 30,
21, 2 and 1 day for the annual, kharif rabi, and summer season, respectively. Probability
analysis of rainfall revealed that selection of less water demanding crops such as green
gram, pearl millet, and guar in kharif season. The onset of effective monsoon on 5th July is
assured at 80% probability, dry sowing of kharif crops can be undertaken during last week
of June to take the advantage of such rainfall distribution. There is 85% probability that
there would be no rain after 15th September so limited chances of receiving adequate
amount of moisture at the root zone level for proper germination of rabi crops. This also
demanded that during kharif, short duration varieties of crops should be chosen so that they
mature by 37th standard week. For rabi crops, early sowing or pre sowing irrigation through
water harvesting in ponds and recycling is very good strategy for proper germination of rabi
crops like mustard, lentil and barley.

Manisha et al. (2013) analyzed the trend of rainfall in Central Vidarbha agro-
climatic region using parametric and non-parametric tests and the Sen's Slope estimator. The
rainfall data of 21meteorological stations for the period of 1969-2004 were used in the
study. The results showed a shift in the spatial and temporal rainfall pattern over the region.

14
The annual rainfall exhibited a decreasing trend at 60% of the meteorological stations.
Seasonal (Monsoon) rainfall was observed to be decreasing at three stations (Chandur Rly,
Mangrulpir, Personi) at 95% level of significance. At Wani station it was increasing at 90%
level of significance. In the month of June rainfall showed significantly increasing trend at
five stations. At Nagpur and Personi it was increasing at 95% and at Kinwat, Arvi and
Darwha at 90% level of significance. In the month of September, rainfall showed
significantly decreasing trend at 60% of the stations. The changes in rainfall affect water
availability for crops in dryland agriculture.

Patil et al. (2013) analyzed the trend of rainfall in Pune District using 47 years
(1958-2004) data acquired from thirteen observatories pertaining to annual, seasonal (kharif)
and monthly rainfall depths during kharif season. Non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK) test
and modified Mann- Kendall trend test with the Sen's slope estimator have been used for
detecting the trends. The trend analysis showed the pattern of rainfall distribution over the
Pune district spatially as well as temporary during the period of analysis. Seasonal (Kharif)
rainfall was observed to be decreasing and June month's rainfall showed increasing trend
while July month's rainfall showed decreasing trend at 99%, 95% and 90% level of
significance, respectively. The decreasing trend of rainfall was observed during July month
for the rainfall gauging stations under high rainfall zone and medium rainfall zone of Pune
district. Sen's slope estimates also indicated increasing and decreasing trend of slope in
accordance with other Mann-Kendall parameters...

Ray et al. (2014) observed that Indian agriculture is mostly rainfed (around 60% of
arable land) and monsoon plays a major role not only in agriculture but also in allied day to
day activities. The knowledge amount of rainfall, number of rainy days and its distribution
over the cropping season are important for timely preparation of seed bed, selection of crop
varieties, choice of cropping pattern. Rainfall analysis with advanced statistical methods
using computer programming and software bring out many features which can be directly
used for crop planning, land water management, aquaculture and floriculture planning etc.
The analysis of 28 years (1983-2010) daily rainfall data of Nongstoin station, of Central
Meghalaya has been done for determining the characteristics of rainfall and probability of
occurrence of normal weekly rainfall.

Pali et al. (2015) analyzed daily rainfall data of 20 years (1991-2010) for Durg,
Dhamdha and Patan blocks of Durg district in Chhattisgarh for the purpose of agricultural

15
 planning. Study revealed that on an average, 138, 139 and 137 days were observed as dry
days (rainless days) in Durg, Dhamdha and Patan blocks, respectively during entire
monsoon season. Similarly, almost equal numbers of dry days were found in all the three
blocks at individual growth stages of rice crop. During complete reproductive phase,
including flowering stage, 22-23 dry days occurred at the three study blocks out of 28 days
of this phase that fell during 37 to 40 standard meteorological weeks (SMWs). Probability
analysis of continuous dry days based on Gamma distribution revealed that during
flowering stage (37-38 SMW), an expected dry spell of 7days at Durg, of 5 days at
Dhamdha, and of 4 days may be experienced at 25% probability of exceedance that was
considered for rice crop planning, indicating less proneness of drought condition at Patan in
comparison to Durg and Dhamdha blocks. At reproductive phase, 3 to 4 days dry spell
might occur at all the study blocks. Markov Chain modeling of dry spells indicated that
during nursery and reproductive stages of rice crop, the initial and conditional probabilities
of dry weeks were as high as 71-90% indicating severe shortage of rainfall and
supplemental irrigation was a must for realizing good yields at all the blocks. During
seedling and vegetative growth stages, probability of getting wet weeks was found higher
and during that period excess rainwater needs to be harvested in on-farm water harvesting
structures that could be recycled during flowering and reproductive stages.

Singh and Kumar (2016) analyzed the trends in historical rainfall of Sagar district
using parametric and non-parametric approaches. The analysis is carried out using 45 years
data (1960-2004) of four rain gauge stations located in different Tehsils namely Sagar,
Khurai, Rehli and Banda, Mann-Kendall analysis, Sen's slope method and Linear regression
method are used for the trend analysis. The analysis is segregated into four parts, viz, winter,
monsoon, summer and annual rainfall. The results show that the Khurai station has
significant rising trend in rainfall during the summer season while the Rehli station has
significant falling trend during the summer season. The trend detected by Mann-Kendall
analysis and Sen's method is also reflected in the linear regression approach. The magnitude
of Sen's slope and regression analysis have also been presented and discussed.

16
 3. MATERIAL AND METHODS

3.1. Mann-Kendall Test

Mann-Kendall test is a non-parametric statistical test based on rank system, to detect

the trend in long-term rainfall data series. The MK test is mainly used for detecting trend in
hydro-climatic data series as the lower sensitivity to any sudden change. To perform this test,
it is essential to evaluate the presence of serial correlation within the data series. A positive
serial correlation can support the expected number of bogus positive products in the MK test.
For this reason, the serial correlation must be excluded prior to applying the MK test.

n n
S=∑ ∑ sgn ( Kj−Ki ) … (3.1)
i=1 j=i+1

[ ]
1 If ( Kj−Ki )> 0
( )
sgn Kj−Ki = 0 If ( Kj−Ki )=0 ... (3.2)
−1 If ( Kj−Ki )< 0

In a time series, Ki, i = 1,2, 3…n, the value of s supposed to be similar as the normal
distribution with a mean 0 and while the discrepancy of statistics S has been computed using
equation given below:
x
n ( n−1 )( 2 n+5 )−∑ Ty ( Ty−1 ) (2 Ty+5)
y=1 } … (3.3)
var ( s )={
18

The ZMK value is used to find out that the time series information is demonstrating a
significant trend or not. The ZMK value is computed using equation given below: -

17
 [ ]
S−1
if S>0
√ var (S)
ZMK = 0 if S=0 … (3.4)
S+1
if S<0
√ var (S)

The ZMK value is used to find out that the time series information is demonstrating a
significant trend or not. The ZMK value is computed using above equation.

18
3.2. Methods for innovative trend analysis.

The innovative trend analysis, proposed by Şen, was applied to detect the trend in long-
term time series rainfall data of India. The innovative trend analysis has greatest advantages
over the MK test and other parametric and non-parametric statistical tests, which is that it
does not need any assumptions like non-linearity, serial correlation and sample numbers.
However, the graph of this test is being plotted on a Cartesian coordinate system depending
on a sub-section time series. As per the method’s requirement, the time series rainfall data
has been sub-divided in two time series data sets: 1901–1957 and 1958–2015. Both segments
were fixed in an ascending order. Typically, the first sub-series (x i) was represented on x axis,
while the other sub-series (yi) was represented on y axis. The data is plotted on the 1: 1 line.
If the data is plotted along the 1:1 line, it indicates simply no trend within the time series. If
the data is being plotted above the 1:1 line, it will state that the moment series shows an
increasing trend, and if the data falls under the 1:1 line, it will indicate the negative trend. If
the scatter plot is closer to the 1: 1 path, the trend alter slope of that time period series will be
weaker, along with the farther far from the 1:1 tier it is, the particular stronger the excitement
change incline in the time series. Often the straight-line trend slope displayed by the ITA
method can be expressed as by the Eq. 3.5

n
1 10( y−x)
s= ∑
n i=1
❑
n
… (3.5)

Where,
s = indicator of trend having the positive values that represent the increasing
trend, while the negative values represent the decreasing trend. The
x = arithmetic average of the first sub-series (xi)
y = arithmetic average of the second sub-series (yi)
n = the number of collected data products.
The indicator is then multiplied by 10 for comparing with MK test.

19
Sen’s slope estimation method

The Sen's slope estimator is a nonparametric, linear slope estimator that works most
effectively on monotonic data. Unlike linear regression, it is not greatly affected by outliers,
gross data errors or missing data. This technique is used to determine the magnitude of the
trend. The approach involves computing slopes for all the pairs of ordinal time points, using
the median of these slopes as an estimate of the overall slope. Sen's method proceeds by
calculating the slope as a change in measurement per change in time. Sen’s slope was
estimated using following equation as purposed by Sen’s,

( x j −x i) … (3.6)
Q=
j−i

where,
Q = slope between data points xj and xi
xj = observation at time j
xi = observation at time i
j = time after time i
The Sen’s slope estimator is calculated as,
'
Q =Q∗¿) ….. n is odd

Q=
'
( Q∗n
2 ) +(
2 )
Q∗n+2
….. n is even
2

Pettitt Test.

The Pettitt test is a distribution-free rank-based test, used to discover noteworthy

changes in the mean of the time series. It is more helpful when the hypothesis testing about
location of a change point is not necessary. This test has been used extensively to identify the
changes observed in climatic and hydrological data series. When length of a time series is
represented by t and the shift take place at m years, the consequential test statistics are

20
expressed as given in Eq..The statistic is similar to the Mann- Whitney statistic, which
characterized by two samples, such as k1, k2…, km and km+1, k2…, kn:

m t
U t ,m=∑ ❑ ∑ ❑ sgn ⁡( K i−K j ) … (3.7)
i=1 j=t +1

Where sgn is defined

( )
1 if ( K i−K j ) ⟩ 1
sgn ⁡( K i−K j )= 0 if ( K i−K j ) ¿ 0 … (3.8)
−1 if ( K i−K j ) ⟨ 1

The test statistic Ut,m is calculated from all haphazard variables from 1 to n. The majority of
distinctive change points are recognized at the point where the magnitude of the test statistic |
Ut,m | is highest.

ZT =Max 1 <t ¿¿ … (3.9)

The probability of shifting year is estimated.

( )
2
−6 Z T
P=1−exp … (3.10)
K2+ K3

If the p-value is less than the significance level α, the null hypothesis is considered to be
rejected.

Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT).

The standard normal homogeneity test is also known as the Alexanderson test. This
test is applied to detect sudden shift or presence of change point in time series of climatic and
hydrologic datasets. The change point has been detected following Eq. 3.11

T s=max T m , 1≤ m<n … (3.11)

21
The change point refers to the point, when T s attains maximum value in the data series. The
Tm is derived using
Eq. 3.12

Where,
T m=m z1 +(n−m) z1 , m=1 , 2, … , n
1
n
( M i− M ) … (3.12)
¿ z 1= ∑ ❑
m i=1 s

where m represents the mean and s represents the standard deviation of the sample data.

Buishand Range Test.

The Buishand Range test is also called as Cumulative Deviation test, which is
calculated based on the adjusted biased sums or cumulative deviation from mean. The change
point using this test is detected following Eqs.:

m
R0* = 0 and Rm* = ∑ (Pt – Pmean) … (3.13)
t =1

m = 1, 2………, n
Rm** = Rm*/σ

S = Max |Rm**| - Min | Rm**|, 0 ≤ m ≤ n … (3.14)

The S/√ n is then estimated using the critical values proposed by Buishand.

22
 4. RESULT AND DISCUSSION

Calculated the descriptive statistics of the annual rainfall from 1985 to 2018 for
Ranichauri, Tehri Garhwal district, Uttarakhand of India. Results show that the study area has
observed the highest annual rainfall as 1894.2 mm in 2018. While, the minimum annual
rainfall has been recorded as 617.8 mm in 2009. The average annual rainfall for the study
area is 1268.72 mm.
The year wise rainfall has been depicted in the Table 4.1. the graph showing the annual
rainfall has also been shown in Fig. 4.1.

Table 4.1 Annual rainfall of Ranichauri region

S. No. Year Annual Rainfall(mm)

1. 1985 1299.8
2. 1986 1532.2
3. 1987 858
4. 1988 1452.34
5. 1989 1185
6. 1990 1542.2
7. 1991 1056.7
8. 1992 855.3
9. 1993 1452.2
10. 1994 1175.5
11. 1995 1386.8
12. 1996 1196.5
13. 1997 1328.4
14. 1998 1840.2
15. 1999 939.7
16. 2000 1334.4
17. 2001 719.1
18. 2002 1255.4
19. 2003 1173.8

23
20. 2004 1174.9
21. 2005 1386.9
22. 2006 997.9
23. 2007 1343.1
24. 2008 1148
25. 2009 617.8
26. 2010 1858.8
27. 2011 1506.4
28. 2012 1307.4
29. 2013 1894.2
30. 2014 1367.8
31. 2015 1080.8
32. 2016 1064
33. 2017 1570.7
34. 2018 1234.1

ANNUAL RAINFALL
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
85 987 989 991 993 995 997 999 001 003 005 007 009 011 013 015 017
19 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Fig. 4.1. Graph showing the annual rainfall of study area.

24
4.1 Evaluation of Rainfall by Mann Kendall Test:

Mann Kendall Test was used to determine whether there is a positive or negative trend
in rainfall or no change in trend by using the annual data of the region. If the value of z is
more than -2 then that suggests that the study area experienced highly negative trend of
rainfall. If the z value varies from 0 to 2, then it indicates a positive trend that implies the
increasing nature of rainfall over the study area, while if the z value is more than 2 then it
indicates highly positive trend, which indicates the significant increase of rainfall over time in
the study area. The different values calculated in Man Kendall test have been indicated in the
Table 4.2.

Table 4.2 Different parameters of Mann Kendall Test for Rainfall Analysis

Parameters Values
No. of observations 34
Variance 4550.333
ZS (Calculated) 15.798
Zs(Tabulated) Level of significance = 90% 1.65

As the value of ZS (Calculated) > 2, hence it indicates a highly positive trend throughout the
annual data, thus indicating significant increase in rainfall in the coming years.

Increased rainfall in the study area can have significant implications across various sectors.
Positively, it can bolster agricultural productivity, enhance biodiversity, and ensure water
security by replenishing groundwater and reservoirs. Furthermore, it can provide
opportunities for hydroelectric power generation. However, the downsides include
heightened flood risks, soil erosion, landslides, and the potential for waterborne diseases.
Additionally, increased rainfall may necessitate infrastructure improvements to mitigate
flooding and waterlogging. Therefore, while it offers benefits, effective planning and
adaptation strategies are crucial to manage the challenges and capitalize on the opportunities
presented by increased precipitation in the study area.

25
4.2 Evaluation of Rainfall by Innovative Trend Analysis:

Non-parametric statistical techniques like Mann-Kendall test have many drawbacks like
the presence of serial correlation within the data sets, non-linearity and most importantly
sample size which could have ability to influence the result. Therefore, Sen developed
innovative trend method which can overcome the mentioned drawbacks, especially the
problem sample size. Sen reported that innovative trend can effectively able to detect the
trend on any numbers of sample size and presence of serial correlation. Hence, we used
innovative trend to calculate the trend for annual rainfall. The data is plotted on 1:1 line, if it
is above the 1:1 line then it indicates positive trend and if it is below 1:1 line then it indicates
negative trend. The value of s when calculated if positive indicates positive trend and if
negative then it indicates negative trend. We divided the overall time series from 1985-2018
into two divisions of rainfall series data as 1985-2001 and 2002-2018 respectively in order to
check whether there is a positive trend or negative trend or no trend at all in our rainfall data.
The different values calculated in Innovative Trend Analysis have been indicated in the Table
4.3.

Table 4.3 Different parameters of Innovative Trend Analysis for Rainfall Analysis:

Parameters Values
Average Rainfall (1985-2001) 1244.373
Average Rainfall (2002-2018) 1293.059
s value 2.863

As the value of s is positive, hence it indicates a positive trend. Several researches established
that innovative trend can able to detect trend effectively over the others non-parametric test.
Therefore, we considered innovative trend as a tool of intensity of trend measurement over
the other techniques and results show that the highly negative trend was detected in most of
the sub-divisions indicate about the climate change.

26
The graph of rainfall data using Inverse Trend Analysis has been depicted in the fig 4.2.

Graph of Inverse Trend Analysis

2000

1800

1600

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0
600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

Fig. 4.2. Graph showing the variation of rainfall time series data along 1:1 line.

27
4.3 Evaluation of Rainfall by Sen’s slope estimation method:

The linear trend value represented by slope of the data set can be estimated by using
non-parametric procedure developed by Theil and Sen. In this method, the slopes of all data
pairs are first calculated. The median of these values is Sen’s estimator of slope which is then
calculated. A positive value of SE indicates an upward trend and the negative value indicates
a downward trend in the time series. The different values calculated in Sen’s slope estimation
method have been indicated in the Table 4.4.

Table 4.4 Different parameters of Sen’s slope estimation method for Rainfall Analysis:

Parameter Value
Sen’s Slope 1.1

As the value of Sen’s slope is positive hence it indicates a positive trend.

4.4 Evaluation of detection of change point in Rainfall:

According to many researchers, the actual trend could not be detected if we apply the
MK test on overall hydro-climatic datasets. Therefore, they highly recommended to apply the
change detection techniques before the application of MK test. Hence, we utilized change
detection methods like Pettitt test, SNHT test and Buishand range test for detecting the abrupt
change point in the rainfall datasets in our study area.
Furthermore, we selected the change point for annual rainfall in the study area based on these
tests. Therefore, these abrupt change points suggest that the rainfall datasets had no
monotonous trend.

28
4.4.1 Pettit Test:

The Pettitt test is a distribution-free rank-based test, used to discover noteworthy

changes in the mean of the time series. It is more helpful when we are required to find out
about the detection of change point in a time series data. This test has been used extensively
to identify the changes observed in climatic and hydrological data series. The statistic is
similar to the Mann- Whitney statistic, which characterized by two samples. We divided the
overall time series from 1985-2018 into two divisions of rainfall series data as 1985-2001 and
2002-2018 respectively in order to check whether there is any change point present in the
overall series or not. The different values calculated in Pettit Test have been indicated in the
Table 4.5.

Table 4.4 Different parameters of Pettit Test for change point detection in rainfall:

Parameters Values
U1 16
U2 -12
ZT 16
P 0.037252

As the P value is less than 0.05 i.e., the level of significance, hence null hypothesis is rejected
which states that there is no change point present in the rainfall data of our study area and as
null hypothesis is rejected so there exists a change point in the rainfall data.

29
4.4.2 Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT):

This test is applied to detect sudden shift or presence of change point in time series of
climatic and hydrologic datasets. The change point has been detected in this test in our study
area. The change point refers to the point, when Ts attains maximum value in the data series.
The different values calculated in SNHT have been indicated in the Table 4.6.

Parameters Values
Mean 1268.72
Standard Deviation 296.58
TS 2675.686

As the value of TS is maximum for the year 2013 hence it is identified as the change point in
the given time series data.

4.4.3 Buishand Range Test:

The Buishand Range test is also called as Cumulative Deviation test, which is
calculated
based on the adjusted biased sums or cumulative deviation from mean. The change point is
then calculated by using this test. The different values calculated in Buihand Range Test have
been indicated in the Table 4.7.

Parameters Values
Mean 1268.71
Standard Deviation 296.58
S 4.94
S/√ n 0.8475

30
 5. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

This dissertation investigates the temporal changes in rainfall patterns in Ranichauri, Tehri
Garhwal, Uttarakhand, India, over a 34-year period from 1985 to 2018 using non-parametric
and rank based statistical methods. The study applied several methods like Mann Kendall
Test, Sen’s Slope Estimation Method, Inverse Trend Analysis and change point detection
tests, including the Pettitt test, Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT), and Buishand
Range test, to identify significant shifts in the annual rainfall data. The results from these
tests indicates that there is positive trend in rainfall in the coming years.

To further understand the nature of these changes, the Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Sen’s
slope estimator were employed to assess the trends and quantify their magnitudes. The MK
test, known for its robustness against non-normal data distributions and outliers, identified
that there is a positive trend for the given study area. The Sen’s slope estimator provided an
estimate of the rate of change, offering insights into the increasing trends in rainfall over the
studied period as the value of slope was positive.

The analysis indicated that post-2009, there was an observable increase in rainfall. These
changes in rainfall patterns are likely a consequence of climate change, impacting various
aspects of the region's hydrology. Such variability in rainfall has significant implications for
water resource management, agricultural planning, and environmental sustainability.
Specifically, changes in rainfall can affect soil moisture levels, groundwater recharge rates,
and overall ecosystem health, necessitating adjustments in water and agricultural
management practices.

The study underscores the importance of early detection of change points in improving the
accuracy of trend analyses. By identifying shifts in rainfall patterns promptly, we can develop
more reliable strategies for managing water resources and agricultural activities. This early

31
detection is crucial for mitigating the adverse effects of climate variability and ensuring the
sustainability of water and environmental resources.

Overall, this research provides valuable insights into the temporal variability of rainfall in
Ranichauri, highlighting the broader implications of these changes on environmental
management. It emphasizes the need for adaptive strategies to cope with the observed trends,
ensuring resilient agricultural and water management practices. The findings of this
dissertation contribute to the broader understanding of climate change impacts on regional
hydrology and underscore the importance of integrating environmental management with
climate adaptation strategies.

32
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