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Contents vii
9-4b Measurement Error in an Explanatory Problems 361

Variable 310 Computer Exercises 363
9-5 Missing Data, Nonrandom Samples, and Outlying
Observations 313
chapter 11 Further Issues in Using OLS with
9-5a Missing Data 313
9-5b Nonrandom Samples 315 Time Series Data 366
9-5c Outliers and Influential Observations 317
11-1 Stationary and Weakly Dependent Time
9-6 Least Absolute Deviations Estimation 321 Series 367
Summary 323 11-1a Stationary and Nonstationary Time Series 367
Key Terms 324 11-1b Weakly Dependent Time Series 368
Problems 324 11-2 Asymptotic Properties of OLS 370
Computer Exercises 328 11-3 Using Highly Persistent Time Series in Regression
Analysis 376
Part 2 11-3a Highly Persistent Time Series 376
11-3b Transformations on Highly Persistent Time
Regression Analysis with Time Series 380
11-3c Deciding Whether a Time Series Is I(1) 381
Series Data 333
11-4 Dynamically Complete Models and the Absence of
Serial Correlation 382
chapter 10 Basic Regression Analysis with 11-5 The Homoskedasticity Assumption for Time
Time Series Data 334 Series Models 385
Summary 386
10-1 The Nature of Time Series Data 334
Key Terms 387
10-2 Examples of Time Series Regression
Models 335 Problems 387
10-2a Static Models 336 Computer Exercises 390
10-2b Finite Distributed Lag Models 336
10-2c A Convention about the Time Index 338 chapter 12 Serial Correlation and
10-3 Finite Sample Properties of OLS under Classical Heteroskedasticity in Time Series
Assumptions 339
Regressions 394
10-3a Unbiasedness of OLS 339
10-3b The Variances of the OLS Estimators and the 12-1 Properties of OLS with Serially Correlated
Gauss-Markov Theorem 342 Errors 395
10-3c Inference under the Classical Linear Model 12-1a Unbiasedness and Consistency 395
Assumptions 344 12-1b Efficiency and Inference 395
10-4 Functional Form, Dummy Variables, and Index 12-1c Goodness-of-Fit 396
Numbers 345 12-1d Serial Correlation in the Presence
10-5 Trends and Seasonality 351 of Lagged Dependent Variables 396
10-5a Characterizing Trending Time Series 351 12-2 Serial Correlation–Robust Inference
10-5b Using Trending Variables in Regression after OLS 398
Analysis 354 12-3 Testing for Serial Correlation 401
10-5c A Detrending Interpretation of Regressions 12-3a A t Test for AR(1) Serial Correlation with
with a Time Trend 356 Strictly Exogenous Regressors 402
10-5d Computing R-Squared When the Dependent 12-3b The Durbin-Watson Test under Classical
Variable Is Trending 357 Assumptions 403
10-5e Seasonality 358 12-3c Testing for AR(1) Serial Correlation without
Summary 360 Strictly Exogenous Regressors 404
Key Terms 361 12-3d Testing for Higher-Order Serial Correlation 406
58860_fm_hr_i-xxii.indd 7 10/23/18 6:11 PM

viii Contents
12-4 Correcting for Serial Correlation with Strictly Summary 451

Exogenous Regressors 407 Key Terms 452
12-4a Obtaining the Best Linear Unbiased
Problems 452
Estimator in the AR(1) Model 408
Computer Exercises 453
12-4b Feasible GLS Estimation with AR(1)
Errors 409
12-4c Comparing OLS and FGLS 411 chapter 14 Advanced Panel
12-4d Correcting for Higher-Order Serial Data Methods 462
Correlation 413
12-4e What if the Serial Correlation Model Is 14-1 Fixed Effects Estimation 463
Wrong? 413 14-1a The Dummy Variable Regression 466
12-5 Differencing and Serial Correlation 414 14-1b Fixed Effects or First Differencing? 467
14-1c Fixed Effects with Unbalanced Panels 468
12-6 Heteroskedasticity in Time Series
Regressions 415 14-2 Random Effects Models 469
12-6a Heteroskedasticity-Robust Statistics 416 14-2a Random Effects or Pooled OLS? 473
12-6b Testing for Heteroskedasticity 416 14-2b Random Effects or Fixed Effects? 473
12-6c Autoregressive Conditional 14-3 The Correlated Random Effects Approach 474
Heteroskedasticity 417 14-3a Unbalanced Panels 476
12-6d Heteroskedasticity and Serial Correlation in 14-4 General Policy Analysis with Panel Data 477
Regression Models 418 14-4a Advanced Considerations with Policy
Summary 419 Analysis 478
Key Terms 420 14-5 Applying Panel Data Methods to Other Data
Problems 420 Structures 480
Computer Exercises 421 Summary 483
Key Terms 484
Part 3 Problems 484
Advanced Topics 425
chapter 15 Instrumental Variables Estimation
chapter 13 Pooling Cross Sections across and Two-Stage Least Squares 495
Time: Simple Panel Data Methods 426
15-1 Motivation: Omitted Variables in a Simple
Regression Model 496
13-1 Pooling Independent Cross Sections across
Time 427 15-1a Statistical Inference with the IV
Estimator 500
13-1a The Chow Test for Structural Change across
Time 431 15-1b Properties of IV with a Poor Instrumental
Variable 503
13-2 Policy Analysis with Pooled Cross Sections 431
15-1c Computing R-Squared after IV Estimation 505
13-2a Adding an Additional Control Group 436 15-2 IV Estimation of the Multiple Regression
13-2b A General Framework for Policy Analysis Model 505
with Pooled Cross Sections 437
15-3 Two-Stage Least Squares 509
13-3 Two-Period Panel Data Analysis 439 15-3a A Single Endogenous Explanatory
13-3a Organizing Panel Data 444 Variable 509
13-4 Policy Analysis with Two-Period Panel 15-3b Multicollinearity and 2SLS 511
Data 444 15-3c Detecting Weak Instruments 512
13-5 Differencing with More Than Two Time 15-3d Multiple Endogenous Explanatory
Periods 447 Variables 513
13-5a Potential Pitfalls in First Differencing Panel 15-3e Testing Multiple Hypotheses after 2SLS
Data 451 Estimation 513

Contents ix
15-4 IV Solutions to Errors-in-Variables Problems 514 17-2 The Tobit Model for Corner Solution
15-5 Testing for Endogeneity and Testing Overidentifying Responses 571
Restrictions 515 17-2a Interpreting the Tobit Estimates 572
15-5a Testing for Endogeneity 515 17-2b Specification Issues in Tobit Models 578
15-5b Testing Overidentification Restrictions 516 17-3 The Poisson Regression Model 578
15-6 2SLS with Heteroskedasticity 518 17-4 Censored and Truncated Regression Models 582
15-7 Applying 2SLS to Time Series Equations 519 17-4a Censored Regression Models 583
15-8 Applying 2SLS to Pooled Cross Sections 17-4b Truncated Regression Models 586
and Panel Data 521 17-5 Sample Selection Corrections 588
Summary 522 17-5a When Is OLS on the Selected Sample
Consistent? 588
Key Terms 523
17-5b Incidental Truncation 589
Problems 523
Summary 593
Key Terms 593
Problems 594
Simultaneous Equations
chapter 16
Models 534
16-1 The Nature of Simultaneous Equations chapter 18 Advanced Time Series Topics 604
Models 535
16-2 Simultaneity Bias in OLS 538 18-1 Infinite Distributed Lag Models 605
16-3 Identifying and Estimating a Structural 18-1a The Geometric (or Koyck) Distributed Lag
Equation 539 Model 607
16-3a Identification in a Two-Equation System 540 18-1b Rational Distributed Lag Models 608
16-3b Estimation by 2SLS 543 18-2 Testing for Unit Roots 610
16-4 Systems with More Than Two Equations 545 18-3 Spurious Regression 614
16-4a Identification in Systems with Three or More 18-4 Cointegration and Error Correction Models 616
Equations 545 18-4a Cointegration 616
16-4b Estimation 546 18-4b Error Correction Models 620
16-5 Simultaneous Equations Models with Time 18-5 Forecasting 622
Series 546
18-5a Types of Regression Models Used for
16-6 Simultaneous Equations Models with Panel Forecasting 623
Data 549 18-5b One-Step-Ahead Forecasting 624
Summary 551 18-5c Comparing One-Step-Ahead Forecasts 627
Key Terms 552 18-5d Multiple-Step-Ahead Forecasts 628
Problems 552 18-5e Forecasting Trending, Seasonal, and Integrated
Computer Exercises 555 Processes 631
Summary 635
chapter 17 Limited Dependent Variable Models Key Terms 636
and Sample Selection Corrections 559 Problems 636
17-1 Logit and Probit Models for Binary
Response 560
17-1a Specifying Logit and Probit Models 560 chapter 19Carrying Out an Empirical
17-1b Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Logit and Project 642
Probit Models 563
17-1c Testing Multiple Hypotheses 564 19-1 Posing a Question 642
17-1d Interpreting the Logit and Probit Estimates 565 19-2 Literature Review 644

x Contents
19-3 Data Collection 645 B-2 Joint Distributions, Conditional Distributions,

19-3a Deciding on the Appropriate Data Set 645 and Independence 688
19-3b Entering and Storing Your Data 646 B-2a Joint Distributions and Independence 688
19-3c Inspecting, Cleaning, and Summarizing Your B-2b Conditional Distributions 690
Data 647 B-3 Features of Probability Distributions 691
19-4 Econometric Analysis 648 B-3a A Measure of Central Tendency: The Expected
19-5 Writing an Empirical Paper 651 Value 691
19-5a Introduction 651 B-3b Properties of Expected Values 692
19-5b Conceptual (or Theoretical) B-3c Another Measure of Central Tendency: The
Framework 652 Median 694
19-5c Econometric Models and Estimation B-3d Measures of Variability: Variance and Standard
Methods 652 Deviation 695
19-5d The Data 654 B-3e Variance 695
19-5e Results 655 B-3f Standard Deviation 696
19.5f Conclusions 656 B-3g Standardizing a Random Variable 696
19-5g Style Hints 656 B-3h Skewness and Kurtosis 697
Summary 658 B-4 Features of Joint and Conditional
Distributions 697
Key Terms 658
B-4a Measures of Association: Covariance and
Sample Empirical Projects 658 Correlation 697
List of Journals 664 B-4b Covariance 697
Data Sources 665 B-4c Correlation Coefficient 698
B-4d Variance of Sums of Random Variables 699
Math Refresher A Basic Mathematical B-4e Conditional Expectation 700
Tools 666 B-4f Properties of Conditional Expectation 702
B-4g Conditional Variance 704
A-1 The Summation Operator and Descriptive B-5 The Normal and Related Distributions 704
Statistics 666 B-5a The Normal Distribution 704
A-2 Properties of Linear Functions 668 B-5b The Standard Normal Distribution 705
A-3 Proportions and Percentages 671 B-5c Additional Properties of the Normal
A-4 Some Special Functions and Their Distribution 707
Properties 672 B-5d The Chi-Square Distribution 708
A-4a Quadratic Functions 672 B-5e The t Distribution 708
A-4b The Natural Logarithm 674 B-5f The F Distribution 709
A-4c The Exponential Function 677 Summary 711
A-5 Differential Calculus 678 Key Terms 711
Summary 680 Problems 711
Key Terms 681
Problems 681 Math Refresher C Fundamentals of
Mathematical Statistics 714
Math Refresher B Fundamentals of
Probability 684 C-1 Populations, Parameters, and Random
Sampling 714
B-1 Random Variables and Their Probability C-1a Sampling 714
Distributions 684 C-2 Finite Sample Properties of Estimators 715
B-1a Discrete Random Variables 685 C-2a Estimators and Estimates 715
B-1b Continuous Random Variables 687 C-2b Unbiasedness 716

Contents xi
C-2c The Sampling Variance of Estimators 718 D-2e Partitioned Matrix Multiplication 752
C-2d Efficiency 719 D-2f Trace 753
C-3 Asymptotic or Large Sample Properties of D-2g Inverse 753
Estimators 721 D-3 Linear Independence and Rank of a
C-3a Consistency 721 Matrix 754
C-3b Asymptotic Normality 723 D-4 Quadratic Forms and Positive Definite
C-4 General Approaches to Parameter Estimation 724 Matrices 754
C-4a Method of Moments 725 D-5 Idempotent Matrices 755
C-4b Maximum Likelihood 725 D-6 Differentiation of Linear and Quadratic
C-4c Least Squares 726 Forms 755
C-5 Interval Estimation and Confidence Intervals 727 D-7 Moments and Distributions of Random
C-5a The Nature of Interval Estimation 727 Vectors 756
C-5b Confidence Intervals for the Mean from a Normally D-7a Expected Value 756
Distributed Population 729 D-7b Variance-Covariance Matrix 756
C-5c A Simple Rule of Thumb for a 95% Confidence D-7c Multivariate Normal Distribution 756
Interval 731 D-7d Chi-Square Distribution 757
C-5d Asymptotic Confidence Intervals for Nonnormal D-7e t Distribution 757
Populations 732 D-7f F Distribution 757
C-6 Hypothesis Testing 733 Summary 757
C-6a Fundamentals of Hypothesis Testing 733
Key Terms 757
C-6b Testing Hypotheses about the Mean in a Normal
Problems 758
Population 735
C-6c Asymptotic Tests for Nonnormal
Populations 738
Advanced Treatment E The Linear Regression
C-6d Computing and Using p-Values 738 Model in Matrix Form 760
C-6e The Relationship between Confidence Intervals
and Hypothesis Testing 741 E-1 The Model and Ordinary Least
Squares Estimation 760
C-6f Practical versus Statistical Significance 742
E-1a The Frisch-Waugh Theorem 762
C-7 Remarks on Notation 743
E-2 Finite Sample Properties of OLS 763
Summary 743
E-3 Statistical Inference 767
Key Terms 744
E-4 Some Asymptotic Analysis 769
Problems 744 E-4a Wald Statistics for Testing Multiple
Hypotheses 771
Advanced Treatment D Summary of Matrix Summary 771
Algebra 749 Key Terms 771
Problems 772
D-1 Basic Definitions 749
Answers to Going Further Questions 775
D-2 Matrix Operations 750
D-2a Matrix Addition 750 Statistical Tables 784
D-2b Scalar Multiplication 750 References 791
D-2c Matrix Multiplication 751 Glossary 797
D-2d Transpose 752 Index 812

Preface
In ALL content, please indent the first paragraph as well, like the following ones. My motivation
for writing the first edition of Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach was that I saw a fairly
wide gap between how econometrics is taught to undergraduates and how empirical researchers think
about and apply econometric methods. I became convinced that teaching introductory econometrics
from the perspective of professional users of econometrics would actually simplify the presentation,
in addition to making the subject much more interesting.
Based on the positive reactions to the several earlier editions, it appears that my hunch was correct.
Many instructors, having a variety of backgrounds and interests and teaching students with different
levels of preparation, have embraced the modern approach to econometrics espoused in this text. The
emphasis in this edition is still on applying econometrics to real-world problems. Each econometric
method is motivated by a particular issue facing researchers analyzing nonexperimental data. The focus
in the main text is on understanding and interpreting the assumptions in light of actual empirical appli-
cations: the mathematics required is no more than college algebra and basic probability and statistics.
Designed for Today’s Econometrics Course

The seventh edition preserves the overall organization of the sixth. The most noticeable feature
that distinguishes this text from most others is the separation of topics by the kind of data being ana-
lyzed. This is a clear departure from the traditional approach, which presents a linear model, lists all
assumptions that may be needed at some future point in the analysis, and then proves or asserts results
without clearly connecting them to the assumptions. My approach is first to treat, in Part 1, mul-
tiple regression analysis with cross-sectional data, under the assumption of random sampling. This
setting is natural to students because they are familiar with random sampling from a population in
their introductory statistics courses. Importantly, it allows us to distinguish assumptions made about
the underlying population regression model—assumptions that can be given economic or behavioral
content—from assumptions about how the data were sampled. Discussions about the consequences of
nonrandom sampling can be treated in an intuitive fashion after the students have a good grasp of the
multiple regression model estimated using random samples.
An important feature of a modern approach is that the explanatory variables—along with the
dependent variable—are treated as outcomes of random variables. For the social sciences, allow-
ing random explanatory variables is much more realistic than the traditional assumption of nonran-
dom explanatory variables. As a nontrivial benefit, the population model/random sampling approach
reduces the number of assumptions that students must absorb and understand. Ironically, the classical
approach to regression analysis, which treats the explanatory variables as fixed in repeated samples
and is still pervasive in introductory texts, literally applies to data collected in an experimental setting.
In addition, the contortions required to state and explain assumptions can be confusing to students.
My focus on the population model emphasizes that the fundamental assumptions underlying
regression analysis, such as the zero mean assumption on the unobservable error term, are properly
xii

Preface xiii
stated conditional on the explanatory variables. This leads to a clear understanding of the kinds of
problems, such as heteroskedasticity (nonconstant variance), that can invalidate standard inference
procedures. By focusing on the population, I am also able to dispel several misconceptions that arise
in econometrics texts at all levels. For example, I explain why the usual R-squared is still valid as a
goodness-of-fit measure in the presence of heteroskedasticity (Chapter 8) or serially correlated errors
(Chapter 12); I provide a simple demonstration that tests for functional form should not be viewed
as general tests of omitted variables (Chapter 9); and I explain why one should always include in a
regression model extra control variables that are uncorrelated with the explanatory variable of inter-
est, which is often a key policy variable (Chapter 6).
Because the assumptions for cross-sectional analysis are relatively straightforward yet realis-
tic, students can get involved early with serious cross-sectional applications without having to worry
about the thorny issues of trends, seasonality, serial correlation, high persistence, and spurious regres-
sion that are ubiquitous in time series regression models. Initially, I figured that my treatment of
regression with cross-sectional data followed by regression with time series data would find favor
with instructors whose own research interests are in applied microeconomics, and that appears to be
the case. It has been gratifying that adopters of the text with an applied time series bent have been
equally enthusiastic about the structure of the text. By postponing the econometric analysis of time
series data, I am able to put proper focus on the potential pitfalls in analyzing time series data that do
not arise with cross-sectional data. In effect, time series econometrics finally gets the serious treat-
ment it deserves in an introductory text.
As in the earlier editions, I have consciously chosen topics that are important for reading journal
articles and for conducting basic empirical research. Within each topic, I have deliberately omitted
many tests and estimation procedures that, while traditionally included in textbooks, have not with-
stood the empirical test of time. Likewise, I have emphasized more recent topics that have clearly
demonstrated their usefulness, such as obtaining test statistics that are robust to heteroskedasticity
(or serial correlation) of unknown form, using multiple years of data for policy analysis, or solving
the omitted variable problem by instrumental variables methods. I appear to have made fairly good
choices, as I have received only a handful of suggestions for adding or deleting material.
I take a systematic approach throughout the text, by which I mean that each topic is presented by
building on the previous material in a logical fashion, and assumptions are introduced only as they
are needed to obtain a conclusion. For example, empirical researchers who use econometrics in their
research understand that not all of the Gauss-Markov assumptions are needed to show that the ordi-
nary least squares (OLS) estimators are unbiased. Yet the vast majority of econometrics texts intro-
duce a complete set of assumptions (many of which are redundant or in some cases even logically
conflicting) before proving the unbiasedness of OLS. Similarly, the normality assumption is often
included among the assumptions that are needed for the Gauss-Markov Theorem, even though it is
fairly well known that normality plays no role in showing that the OLS estimators are the best linear
unbiased estimators.
My systematic approach is illustrated by the order of assumptions that I use for multiple regres-
sion in Part 1. This structure results in a natural progression for briefly summarizing the role of each
assumption:
MLR.1: Introduce the population model and interpret the population parameters (which we hope
to estimate).
MLR.2: Introduce random sampling from the population and describe the data that we use to
estimate the population parameters.
MLR.3: Add the assumption on the explanatory variables that allows us to compute the estimates
from our sample; this is the so-called no perfect collinearity assumption.
MLR.4: Assume that, in the population, the mean of the unobservable error does not depend on the
values of the explanatory variables; this is the “mean independence” assumption combined with a
zero population mean for the error, and it is the key assumption that delivers unbiasedness of OLS.

xiv Preface
After introducing Assumptions MLR.1 to MLR.3, one can discuss the algebraic properties of ordi-
nary least squares—that is, the properties of OLS for a particular set of data. By adding Assumption
MLR.4, we can show that OLS is unbiased (and consistent). Assumption MLR.5 (homoskedastic-
ity) is added for the Gauss-Markov Theorem and for the usual OLS variance formulas to be valid.
Assumption MLR.6 (normality), which is not introduced until Chapter 4, is added to round out the
classical linear model assumptions. The six assumptions are used to obtain exact statistical inference
and to conclude that the OLS estimators have the smallest variances among all unbiased estimators.
I use parallel approaches when I turn to the study of large-sample properties and when I treat
regression for time series data in Part 2. The careful presentation and discussion of assumptions
makes it relatively easy to transition to Part 3, which covers advanced topics that include using pooled
cross-sectional data, exploiting panel data structures, and applying instrumental variables methods.
Generally, I have strived to provide a unified view of econometrics, where all estimators and test sta-
tistics are obtained using just a few intuitively reasonable principles of estimation and testing (which,
of course, also have rigorous justification). For example, regression-based tests for heteroskedasticity
and serial correlation are easy for students to grasp because they already have a solid understanding
of regression. This is in contrast to treatments that give a set of disjointed recipes for outdated econo-
metric testing procedures.
Throughout the text, I emphasize ceteris paribus relationships, which is why, after one chapter on
the simple regression model, I move to multiple regression analysis. The multiple regression setting
motivates students to think about serious applications early. I also give prominence to policy analysis
with all kinds of data structures. Practical topics, such as using proxy variables to obtain ceteris pari-
bus effects and interpreting partial effects in models with interaction terms, are covered in a simple
fashion.
Designed at Undergraduates, Applicable

to Master’s Students
The text is designed for undergraduate economics majors who have taken college algebra and
one-semester of introductory probability and statistics. (Math Refresher A, B, and C contain the
requisite background material.) A one-semester or one-quarter econometrics course would not be
expected to cover all, or even any, of the more advanced material in Part 3. A typical introduc-
tory course includes Chapters 1 through 8, which cover the basics of simple and multiple regres-
sion for cross-sectional data. Provided the emphasis is on intuition and interpreting the empirical
examples, the material from the first eight chapters should be accessible to undergraduates in most
economics departments. Most instructors will also want to cover at least parts of the c hapters
on regression analysis with time series data, Chapters 10 and 12, in varying degrees of depth.
In the one-semester course that I teach at Michigan State, I cover Chapter 10 fairly carefully,
give an overview of the material in Chapter 11, and cover the material on serial correlation in
Chapter 12. I find that this basic one-semester course puts students on a solid footing to write
empirical papers, such as a term paper, a senior seminar paper, or a senior thesis. Chapter 9
c ontains more specialized topics that arise in analyzing cross-sectional data, including data
problems such as outliers and nonrandom sampling; for a one-semester course, it can be skipped
without loss of continuity.
The structure of the text makes it ideal for a course with a cross-sectional or policy analysis
focus: the time series chapters can be skipped in lieu of topics from Chapters 9 or 15. The new mate-
rial on potential outcomes added to the first nine chapters should help the instructor craft a course
that provides an introduction to modern policy analysis. Chapter 13 is advanced only in the sense
that it treats two new data structures: independently pooled cross sections and two-period panel data
analysis. Such data structures are especially useful for policy analysis, and the chapter provides

Preface xv
several examples. Students with a good grasp of Chapters 1 through 8 will have little difficulty with
Chapter 13. Chapter 14 covers more advanced panel data methods and would probably be covered
only in a second course. A good way to end a course on cross-sectional methods is to cover the rudi-
ments of instrumental variables estimation in Chapter 15.
I have used selected material in Part 3, including Chapters 13 and 17, in a senior seminar geared
to producing a serious research paper. Along with the basic one-semester course, students who have
been exposed to basic panel data analysis, instrumental variables estimation, and limited dependent
variable models are in a position to read large segments of the applied social sciences literature.
Chapter 17 provides an introduction to the most common limited dependent variable models.
The text is also well suited for an introductory master’s level course, where the emphasis is on
applications rather than on derivations using matrix algebra. Several instructors have used the text to
teach policy analysis at the master’s level. For instructors wanting to present the material in matrix
form, Appendices D and E are self-contained treatments of the matrix algebra and the multiple regres-
sion model in matrix form.
At Michigan State, PhD students in many fields that require data analysis—including accounting,
agricultural economics, development economics, economics of education, finance, international eco-
nomics, labor economics, macroeconomics, political science, and public finance—have found the text
to be a useful bridge between the empirical work that they read and the more theoretical econometrics
they learn at the PhD level.
Suggestions for Designing Your Course Beyond the Basic

I have already commented on the contents of most of the chapters as well as possible outlines for
courses. Here I provide more specific comments about material in chapters that might be covered or
skipped:
Chapter 9 has some interesting examples (such as a wage regression that includes IQ score as
an explanatory variable). The rubric of proxy variables does not have to be formally introduced to
present these kinds of examples, and I typically do so when finishing up cross-sectional analysis. In
Chapter 12, for a one-semester course, I skip the material on serial correlation robust inference for
ordinary least squares as well as dynamic models of heteroskedasticity.
Even in a second course I tend to spend only a little time on Chapter 16, which covers simultane-
ous equations analysis. I have found that instructors differ widely in their opinions on the importance
of teaching simultaneous equations models to undergraduates. Some think this material is funda-
mental; others think it is rarely applicable. My own view is that simultaneous equations models are
overused (see Chapter 16 for a discussion). If one reads applications carefully, omitted variables and
measurement error are much more likely to be the reason one adopts instrumental variables estimation,
and this is why I use omitted variables to motivate instrumental variables estimation in Chapter 15.
Still, simultaneous equations models are indispensable for estimating demand and supply functions,
and they apply in some other important cases as well.
Chapter 17 is the only chapter that considers models inherently nonlinear in their parameters,
and this puts an extra burden on the student. The first material one should cover in this chapter is on
probit and logit models for binary response. My presentation of Tobit models and censored regression
still appears to be novel in introductory texts. I explicitly recognize that the Tobit model is applied to
corner solution outcomes on random samples, while censored regression is applied when the data col-
lection process censors the dependent variable at essentially arbitrary thresholds.
Chapter 18 covers some recent important topics from time series econometrics, including test-
ing for unit roots and cointegration. I cover this material only in a second-semester course at either
the undergraduate or master’s level. A fairly detailed introduction to forecasting is also included in
Chapter 18.

xvi Preface
Chapter 19, which would be added to the syllabus for a course that requires a term paper, is much
more extensive than similar chapters in other texts. It summarizes some of the methods appropriate
for various kinds of problems and data structures, points out potential pitfalls, explains in some detail
how to write a term paper in empirical economics, and includes suggestions for possible projects.
What’s Changed?
I have added new exercises to many chapters, including to the Math Refresher and Advanced
Treatment appendices. Some of the new computer exercises use new data sets, including a data set
on performance of men’s college basketball teams. I have also added more challenging problems that
require derivations.
There are several notable changes to the text. An important organizational change, which should
facilitate a wider variety of teaching tastes, is that the notion of binary, or dummy, explanatory vari-
ables is introduced in Chapter 2. There, it is shown that ordinary least squares estimation leads to a
staple in basic statistics: the difference in means between two subgroups in a population. By introduc-
ing qualitative factors into regression early on, the instructor is able to use a wider variety of empirical
examples from the very beginning.
The early discussion of binary explanatory variables allows for a formal introduction of potential,
or counterfactual, outcomes, which is indispensable in the modern literature on estimating causal
effects. The counterfactual approach to studying causality appears in previous editions, but Chapters 2,
3, 4, and 7 now explicitly include new sections on the modern approach to causal inference. Because
basic policy analysis involves the binary decision to participate in a program or not, a leading example
of using dummy independent variables in simple and multiple regression is to evaluate policy inter-
ventions. At the same time, the new material is incorporated into the text so that instructors not wish-
ing to cover the potential outcomes framework may easily skip the material. Several end-of-chapter
problems concern extensions of the basic potential outcomes framework, which should be valuable
for instructors wishing to cover that material.
Chapter 3 includes a new section on different ways that one can apply multiple regression,
including problems of pure prediction, testing efficient markets, and culminating with a discussion of
estimating treatment or causal effects. I think this section provides a nice way to organize students’
thinking about the scope of multiple regression after they have seen the mechanics of ordinary least
squares (OS) and several examples. As with other new material that touches on causal effects, this
material can be skipped without loss of continuity. A new section in Chapter 7 continues the discussion
of potential outcomes, allowing for nonconstant treatment effects. The material is a nice illustration
of estimating different regression functions for two subgroups from a population. New problems
in this chapter that allow the student more experience in using full regression adjustment to estimate
causal effects.
One notable change to Chapter 9 is a more detailed discussion of using missing data indicators
when data are missing on one or more of the explanatory variables. The assumptions underlying the
method are discussed in more detail than in the previous edition.
Chapter 12 has been reorganized to reflect a more modern treatment of the problem of serial
correlation in the errors of time series regression models. The new structure first covers adjusting the
OLS standard errors to allow general forms of serial correlation. Thus, the chapter outline now paral-
lels that in Chapter 8, with the emphasis in both cases on OLS estimation but making inference robust
to violation of standard assumptions. Correcting for serial correlation using generalized least squares
now comes after OLS and the treatment of testing for serial correlation.
The advanced chapters also include several improvements. Chapter 13 now discusses, at an acces-
sible level, extensions of the standard difference-in-differences setup, allowing for multiple control

Preface xvii
groups, multiple time periods, and even group-specific trends. In addition, the chapter includes a
more detailed discussion of computing standard errors robust to serial correlation when using first-
differencing estimation with panel data.
Chapter 14 now provides more detailed discussions of several important issues in estimating
panel data models by fixed effects, random effects, and correlated random effects (CRE). The CRE
approach with missing data is discussed in more detail, as is how one accounts for general functional
forms, such as squares and interactions, which are covered in the cross-sectional setting in Chapter 6.
An expanded section on general policy analysis with panel data should be useful for courses with an
emphasis on program interventions and policy evaluation.
Chapter 16, which still covers simultaneous equations models, now provides an explicit link
between the potential outcomes framework and specification of simultaneous equations models.
Chapter 17 now includes a discussion of using regression adjustment for estimating causal (treat-
ment) effects when the outcome variable has special features, such as when the outcome itself is a
binary variable. Then, as the reader is asked to explore in a new problem, logit and probit models can
be used to obtain more reliable estimates of average treatment effects by estimating separate models
for each treatment group.
Chapter 18 now provides more details about how one can compute a proper standard error for
a forecast (as opposed to a prediction) interval. This should help the advanced reader understand in
more detail the nature of the uncertainty in the forecast.
About MindTap™
MindTap is an outcome-driven application that propels students from memorization to mastery.
It’s the only platform that gives you complete ownership of your course. With it, you can challenge
every student, build their confidence, and empower them to be unstoppable.
Access Everything You Need In One Place. Cut down on prep with preloaded, organized course
materials in MindTap. Teach more efficiently with interactive multimedia, assignments, quizzes and
more. And give your students the power to read, listen and study on their phones, so they can learn on
their terms.
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Together, you can accelerate progress.
Your Course. Your Content. Only MindTap gives you complete control over your course. You
have the flexibility to reorder textbook chapters, add your own notes and embed a variety of content
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your students throughout the semester—and beyond.
Design Features
In addition to the didactic material in the chapter, I have included two features to help students
better understand and apply what they are learning. Each chapter contains many numbered examples.
Several of these are case studies drawn from recently published papers. I have used my judgment to
simplify the analysis, hopefully without sacrificing the main point. The “Going Further Questions” in

xviii Preface
the chapter provide students an opportunity to “go further” in learning the material through analysis
or application. Students will find immediate feedback for these questions in the end of the text.
The end-of-chapter problems and computer exercises are heavily oriented toward empirical work,
rather than complicated derivations. The students are asked to reason carefully based on what they
have learned. The computer exercises often expand on the in-text examples. Several exercises use data
sets from published works or similar data sets that are motivated by published research in economics
and other fields.
A pioneering feature of this introductory econometrics text is the extensive glossary. The short
definitions and descriptions are a helpful refresher for students studying for exams or reading empiri-
cal research that uses econometric methods. I have added and updated several entries for the seventh
edition.
Instructional Tools
Cengage offers various supplements for instructors and students who use this book. I would like
to thank the Subject Matter Expert team who worked on these supplements and made teaching and
learning easy.
C. Patrick Scott, Ph.D., Louisiana Tech University (R Videos and Computer exercise reviewer)
Hisham Foad (Aplia Home work reviewer and Glossary)
Kenneth H. Brown, Missouri State University (R Videos creator)
Scott Kostyshak, University of Florida (R Videos reviewer)
Ujwal Kharel (Test Bank and Adaptive Test Prep)
Data Sets—Available in Six Formats

With more than 100 data sets in six different formats, including Stata®, R, EViews®, Minitab®,
Microsoft® Excel, and Text, the instructor has many options for problem sets, examples, and term
projects. Because most of the data sets come from actual research, some are very large. Except for
partial lists of data sets to illustrate the various data structures, the data sets are not reported in the
text. This book is geared to a course where computer work plays an integral role.
Updated Data Sets Handbook

An extensive data description manual is also available online. This manual contains a list of data
sources along with suggestions for ways to use the data sets that are not described in the text. This
unique handbook, created by author Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, lists the source of all data sets for quick
reference and how each might be used. Because the data book contains page numbers, it is easy to
see how the author used the data in the text. Students may want to view the descriptions of each data
set and it can help guide instructors in generating new homework exercises, exam problems, or term
projects. The author also provides suggestions on improving the data sets in this detailed resource that
is available on the book’s companion website at http://login.cengage.com and students can access it
free at www.cengage.com.

Preface xix
Instructor’s Manual with Solutions

REVISED INSTRUCTOR’S MANUAL WITH SOLUTIONS SAVES TIME IN PREPARATION
AND GRADING. The online Instructor’s Manual with solutions contains answers to all exercises in
this edition. Teaching tips provide suggestions for presenting each chapter’s material. The Instructor’s
Manual also contains sources for each of the data files with suggestions for using the data to develop
problem sets, exams, and term papers. The Instructor’s Manual is password-protected and available
for download on the book’s companion website.
Test Bank
Cengage Testing, powered by Cognero® is a flexible, online system that allows you to import,
edit, and manipulate content from the text’s test bank or elsewhere, including your own favorite test
questions; create multiple test versions in an instant; and deliver tests from your LMS, your class-
room, or wherever you want.
PowerPoint Slides
UPDATED POWERPOINT ® SLIDES BRING LECTURES TO LIFE WHILE VISUALLY
CLARIFYING CONCEPTS. Exceptional PowerPoint® presentation slides, created specifically for
this edition, help you create engaging, memorable lectures. The slides are particularly useful for clari-
fying advanced topics in Part 3. You can modify or customize the slides for your specific course.
PowerPoint® slides are available for convenient download on the instructor-only, password-protected
section of the book’s companion website.
Scientific Word Slides

UPDATED SCIENTIFIC WORD® SLIDES REINFORCE TEXT CONCEPTS AND LECTURE
PRESENTATIONS. Created by the text author, this edition’s Scientific Word ® slides reinforce the
book’s presentation slides while highlighting the benefits of Scientific Word®, the application cre-
ated by MacKichan software, Inc. for specifically composing mathematical, scientific and techni-
cal documents using LaTeX typesetting. These slides are based on the author’s actual lectures and
are available for convenient download on the password-protected section of the book’s companion
website.
Student Supplements
Student Solutions Manual
Now your student’s can maximize their study time and further their course success with this dynamic
online resource. This helpful Solutions Manual includes detailed steps and solutions to odd-numbered
problems as well as computer exercises in the text. This supplement is available as a free resource at
www.cengagebrain.com.

xx Preface
Acknowledgments
I would like to thank those who reviewed and provided helpful comments for this and previous
editions of the text:
Erica Johnson, Gonzaga University Steven Cuellar, Sonoma State
University
Mary Ellen Benedict, Bowling Green
State University Yanan Di, Wagner College
Chirok Han, Korea University John Fitzgerald, Bowdoin College
Yan Li, Temple University Philip N. Jefferson, Swarthmore
College
Melissa Tartari, Yale University
Yongsheng Wang, Washington and
Michael Allgrunn, University of Jefferson College
South Dakota
Sheng-Kai Chang, National Taiwan
Gregory Colman, Pace University University
Yoo-Mi Chin, Missouri University of Damayanti Ghosh, Binghamton
Science and Technology University
Arsen Melkumian, Western Illinois Susan Averett, Lafayette College
University
Kevin J. Mumford, Purdue
Kevin J. Murphy, Oakland University
University
Kristine Grimsrud, University of New
Nicolai V. Kuminoff, Arizona State
Mexico
University
Will Melick, Kenyon College
Subarna K. Samanta, The College of
Philip H. Brown, Colby College New Jersey
Argun Saatcioglu, University of Jing Li, South Dakota State
Kansas University
Ken Brown, University of Northern Gary Wagner, University of
Iowa Arkansas–Little Rock
Michael R. Jonas, University of San Kelly Cobourn, Boise State University
Francisco
Timothy Dittmer, Central
Melissa Yeoh, Berry College Washington University
Nikolaos Papanikolaou, SUNY at Daniel Fischmar, Westminster
New Paltz College
Konstantin Golyaev, University of Subha Mani, Fordham University
Minnesota
John Maluccio, Middlebury College
Soren Hauge, Ripon College
James Warner, College of Wooster
Kevin Williams, University of
Christopher Magee, Bucknell
Minnesota
University
Hailong Qian, Saint Louis
University Andrew Ewing, Eckerd College
Rod Hissong, University of Texas at Debra Israel, Indiana State

Arlington University

Preface xxi
Jay Goodliffe, Brigham Young Heather O’Neill, Ursinus College

University
Leslie Papke, Michigan State
Stanley R. Thompson, The Ohio University
State University
Timothy Vogelsang, Michigan State
Michael Robinson, Mount Holyoke University
College
Stephen Woodbury, Michigan State
Ivan Jeliazkov, University of University
California, Irvine
Some of the changes I discussed earlier were driven by comments I received from people on this
list, and I continue to mull over other specific suggestions made by one or more reviewers.
Many students and teaching assistants, too numerous to list, have caught mistakes in earlier
editions or have suggested rewording some paragraphs. I am grateful to them.
As always, it was a pleasure working with the team at Cengage Learning. Michael Parthenakis,
my longtime Product Manager, has learned very well how to guide me with a firm yet gentle hand.
Anita Verma and Ethan Crist quickly mastered the difficult challenges of being the content and sub-
ject matter expert team of a dense, technical textbook. Their careful reading of the manuscript and
fine eye for detail have improved this seventh edition considerably.
This book is dedicated to my family: Leslie, Edmund, and R.G.
Jeffrey M. Wooldridge

About the Author
Jeffrey M. Wooldridge is University Distinguished Professor of Economics at Michigan State

University, where he has taught since 1991. From 1986 to 1991, he was an assistant professor of eco-
nomics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He received his bachelor of arts, with majors in
computer science and economics, from the University of California, Berkeley, in 1982, and received
his doctorate in economics in 1986 from the University of California, San Diego. He has published
more than 60 articles in internationally recognized journals, as well as several book chapters. He
is also the author of Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data, second edition. His
awards include an Alfred P. Sloan Research Fellowship, the Plura Scripsit award from Econometric
Theory, the Sir Richard Stone prize from the Journal of Applied Econometrics, and three graduate
teacher-of-the-year awards from MIT. He is a fellow of the Econometric Society and of the Journal
of Econometrics. He is past editor of the Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, and past
econometrics coeditor of Economics Letters. He has served on the editorial boards of Econometric
Theory, the Journal of Economic Literature, the Journal of Econometrics, the Review of Economics
and Statistics, and the Stata Journal. He has also acted as an occasional econometrics consultant for
Arthur Andersen, Charles River Associates, the Washington State Institute for Public Policy, Stratus
Consulting, and Industrial Economics, Incorporated.
xxii

chapter 1
The Nature
of Econometrics
and Economic Data
C
hapter 1 discusses the scope of econometrics and raises general issues that arise in the
application of econometric methods. Section 1-1 provides a brief discussion about the pur-
pose and scope of econometrics and how it fits into economic analysis. Section 1-2 provides
examples of how one can start with an economic theory and build a model that can be estimated
using data. Section 1-3 examines the kinds of data sets that are used in business, economics, and
other social sciences. Section 1-4 provides an intuitive discussion of the difficulties associated with
inferring causality in the social sciences.
1-1 What Is Econometrics?

Imagine that you are hired by your state government to evaluate the effectiveness of a publicly
funded job training program. Suppose this program teaches workers various ways to use computers in
the manufacturing process. The 20-week program offers courses during nonworking hours. Any
hourly manufacturing worker may participate, and enrollment in all or part of the program is volun-
tary. You are to determine what, if any, effect the training program has on each worker’s subsequent
hourly wage.
Now, suppose you work for an investment bank. You are to study the returns on different invest-
ment strategies involving short-term U.S. treasury bills to decide whether they comply with implied
economic theories.
The task of answering such questions may seem daunting at first. At this point, you may only
have a vague idea of the kind of data you would need to collect. By the end of this introductory
econometrics course, you should know how to use econometric methods to formally evaluate a job
training program or to test a simple economic theory.
1
58860_ch01_hr_001-018.indd 1 10/18/18 4:04 PM

2 CHAPTER 1 The Nature of Econometrics and Economic Data
Econometrics is based upon the development of statistical methods for estimating economic
relationships, testing economic theories, and evaluating and implementing government and business
policy. A common application of econometrics is the forecasting of such important macroeconomic
variables as interest rates, inflation rates, and gross domestic product (GDP). Whereas forecasts of
economic indicators are highly visible and often widely published, econometric methods can be used
in economic areas that have nothing to do with macroeconomic forecasting. For example, we will
study the effects of political campaign expenditures on voting outcomes. We will consider the effect
of school spending on student performance in the field of education. In addition, we will learn how to
use econometric methods for forecasting economic time series.
Econometrics has evolved as a separate discipline from mathematical statistics because the for-
mer focuses on the problems inherent in collecting and analyzing nonexperimental economic data.
Nonexperimental data are not accumulated through controlled experiments on individuals, firms,
or segments of the economy. (Nonexperimental data are sometimes called observational data, or
retrospective data, to emphasize the fact that the researcher is a passive collector of the data.)
Experimental data are often collected in laboratory environments in the natural sciences, but
they are more difficult to obtain in the social sciences. Although some social experiments can be
devised, it is often impossible, prohibitively expensive, or morally repugnant to conduct the kinds
of controlled experiments that would be needed to address economic issues. We give some specific
examples of the differences between experimental and nonexperimental data in Section 1-4.
Naturally, econometricians have borrowed from mathematical statisticians whenever possible.
The method of multiple regression analysis is the mainstay in both fields, but its focus and interpreta-
tion can differ markedly. In addition, economists have devised new techniques to deal with the com-
plexities of economic data and to test the predictions of economic theories.
1-2 Steps in Empirical Economic Analysis

Econometric methods are relevant in virtually every branch of applied economics. They come into
play either when we have an economic theory to test or when we have a relationship in mind that has
some importance for business decisions or policy analysis. An empirical analysis uses data to test a
theory or to estimate a relationship.
How does one go about structuring an empirical economic analysis? It may seem obvious, but
it is worth emphasizing that the first step in any empirical analysis is the careful formulation of the
question of interest. The question might deal with testing a certain aspect of an economic theory, or it
might pertain to testing the effects of a government policy. In principle, econometric methods can be
used to answer a wide range of questions.
In some cases, especially those that involve the testing of economic theories, a formal economic
model is constructed. An economic model consists of mathematical equations that describe various
relationships. Economists are well known for their building of models to describe a vast array of
behaviors. For example, in intermediate microeconomics, individual consumption decisions, subject
to a budget constraint, are described by mathematical models. The basic premise underlying these
models is utility maximization. The assumption that individuals make choices to maximize their
well-being, subject to resource constraints, gives us a very powerful framework for creating tractable
economic models and making clear predictions. In the context of consumption decisions, utility maxi-
mization leads to a set of demand equations. In a demand equation, the quantity demanded of each
commodity depends on the price of the goods, the price of substitute and complementary goods, the
consumer’s income, and the individual’s characteristics that affect taste. These equations can form the
basis of an econometric analysis of consumer demand.
Economists have used basic economic tools, such as the utility maximization framework, to
explain behaviors that at first glance may appear to be noneconomic in nature. A classic example is
Becker’s (1968) economic model of criminal behavior.
58860_ch01_hr_001-018.indd 2 10/18/18 4:04 PM

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table where Brant must have stood. Then he placed the chairs on
either side of the table, about where they were when Harding and
Langford had sat in them. The stage set, he began his
demonstration:
“Now, we know that Harding was hit on the side of his face nearest
to you, but that proves nothing more than that he might have turned
away just at the moment of the firing. But if you will hold the end of
this tape, I’ll show you that Brant couldn’t have fired that shot from
your end of the table, unless it turned a corner in Harding’s head.”
He unwound the tape, gave one end of it to Antrim, and drew it taut
as nearly as might be through the space where the murdered man’s
head must have been. That done, he turned and stared blankly at his
assistant.
“What is it?” Antrim demanded.
“B’gosh, I’ve proved too much!” said the reporter. “Can’t you see?
The bullet that made this hole in the wall was fired from about where
you stand. By Jove! that lets young Langford out, but say, it puts
Brant in head over ears!”
Antrim dropped his end of the tape and thrust his hands into his
pockets. “Just the same, I don’t believe it,” he said doggedly. “And,
what’s more, I never will until Brant admits it himself.”
“Bully for you!” cried Jarvis heartily. “You are the kind of a friend to
have at a pinch! Well, there is nothing more to be found out here.
Let’s go down and have a drink, and then you’ll tell me more about
that burglary business. I was so full of this other thing that I didn’t
quite catch on.”
“No drinks,” said Antrim briefly when they were once more in the
street and Jarvis was pointing for a barroom. “Come up to Mrs.
Seeley’s with me, if you like, and I’ll tell you and show you all there is
to be heard and seen.”
Jarvis acquiesced, grumbling, and the chief clerk was as good as his
word. But if the reporter made any fresh discoveries in Brant’s room
he kept his own counsel. By this time Antrim was catching at straws.
The meeting with Jarvis and the experiment with the tape measure in
the card room damped his courage, and left his belief in Brant’s
innocence more nearly shaken than it had been at any time during
the eventful day. None the less, he remained steadfast, as his last
word to Jarvis testified.
“You are interested in getting to the bottom of this thing on general
principles, aren’t you?” he asked, as he let the reporter out at the
street door.
“Sure thing.”
“I supposed so. Well, you just go ahead on the supposition that Brant
didn’t do it, and you will be more likely to succeed. Good night.”
“You are a crank,” said the reporter, laughing, as he ran down the
steps.
And yet such is the impact of one man’s assertion hurled repeatedly
against a wall of self-evident fact that Jarvis actually found himself
ignoring the evidence and building theories based on the major “if.”
He toppled them over as fast as they rose, but they straightway grew
again, and it took another conference with his chief, the night editor,
to fully fortify his reason against the assaults of Antrim’s insistent
faith.
CHAPTER XXVIII
HOW THE JUDGE GAVE OF HIS BEST
Having done what he might for his friend on the Saturday, Antrim
thought he should not err in devoting the Sunday afternoon to his
own affair, and to this end he turned his face to the Highlands as
soon as he could break away from the Sunday duties which entangle
the railway servant. He was a little later than usual; and Isabel, after
waiting half an hour, avenged her pique by going out with Mrs.
Hobart. Dorothy, meeting Antrim at the gate as she was starting for
the mission school, was unable to tell him whither they had gone.
Wouldn’t he go in and wait?
Piqued in his turn, Antrim decided he would not go in and wait. He
had meant to do no more at present than to try to resume the old
relation with Isabel, and he thought she might have suffered this, the
more willingly since it was her own expressed wish. But if she were
not yet complaisant——
Before he had argued the case to its irritant conclusion he found
himself walking townward with Dorothy. They missed a car by a
minute or two, and Antrim halted at the corner to wait for the next.
“I have time enough, and we can walk on until a car overtakes us, if
you care to,” said Dorothy, who had a reason of her own for desiring
an uninterrupted interview with her companion.
“I’d like to walk,” replied Antrim, whose mood welcomed a diversion
of any sort.
They went on together, and mutual constraint immediately thrust a
barrier of silence between them. Antrim thought he knew enough of
Brant’s secret to make him hesitate to speak first of the thing which
he imagined was uppermost in Dorothy’s mind; and Dorothy was
made dumb by a great sympathy for Antrim in his disappointment.
None the less, she was the first to break the silence.
“Have you—have you been to see Mr. Brant since the—” She could
not give it a name, and Antrim promptly forestalled the necessity.
“Yes; I was with him for half an hour yesterday afternoon.”
Dorothy meant to go straight on to the end she had in view, but her
courage failed, and she had to bridge the gap with a commonplace.
“Isn’t it dreadful!” she said.
“That depends upon how you look at it,” rejoined Antrim, forgetting
for the moment to whom he was talking. “I don’t believe Brant is
guilty.”
“O Harry!” Dorothy stopped, and the quick tears blinded her.
Whereupon Antrim realized, with a pang of remorse for his
thoughtlessness, what such an assertion must mean to William
Langford’s sister, and he made haste to comfort her.
“You mustn’t take it for granted that I am accusing Will. I am not; I
just leave him out of the question altogether, and stick to Brant for
what I know of him. He wouldn’t do such a thing any more than I
would.”
Dorothy could not so easily avoid the apparently inevitable
conclusion, but her enthusiasm rose unbidden at the tribute to the
worth of the man whom she loved.
“I want to think so too, Harry—oh, so much! But papa says he
doesn’t deny it.”
“No, he doesn’t; and he doesn’t affirm it, either. And till he does, I am
not going to believe it,” said Antrim stoutly.
At this conjuncture it occurred to Dorothy that Antrim was behaving
very nobly toward his successful rival, and she found space to lay a
little offering on the altar of manly friendship.
“It is very generous of you, Harry, to feel that way after what has
happened. I have been afraid you might feel just the least bit
vindictive.”
“Vindictive? You don’t know what I owe him, Dorothy. It is a bigger
debt than I ever owed any one before, and I’d pay it if it took the last
thing I have in the world.”
“It has taken the thing you valued most, hasn’t it?” said Dorothy, with
heartfelt sympathy in voice and eyes. “Poor Isabel! It is a dreadful
blow for her! And she is taking it so strangely.”
Antrim was properly mystified, but he got no farther than to say:
“Isabel? I am afraid I don’t quite understand.”
“Surely she has told you,” said Dorothy, who could not imagine
anything like duplicity on the part of her outspoken sister.
Now Isabel had told him but one thing of any considerable
importance to a lover, and Antrim’s thought naturally reverted to that
thing.
“Oh, yes,” he rejoined, trying to speak lightly. “She gave me my
quittance for good and all a while back, but—” He was going on to
add that it is a long lane that has no turning, when Dorothy
interrupted:
“I knew she would tell you first! And now this dreadful thing has
come between them. Harry, I believe it will kill her if she has to give
him up now. She is acting so strangely that I fairly tremble for her
reason.”
Antrim throttled a wild impulse to give place to madness and forced
himself to say, as calmly as might be, “Then she has told you that—
that she loves Brant?”
Dorothy decided on the spur of the moment that it was no time for
half confidences.
“Yes; and that isn’t the worst of it. She sent him away because—
because she didn’t know her own heart, I suppose. I told her he
would come back; and now he never can. Isn’t it too pitiful!”
Antrim thought it was—in more senses than one. More than that, it
was blankly incredible, or rather it would be apart from Dorothy’s
positive assertion. Could he have been so purblind as not to have
seen what was going on before his very eyes? Reason said No; but
a misconception, once endowed with the breath of life, is sure to find
plenty to fatten upon, and the atoms of corroborative evidence began
to assemble quickly with Dorothy’s declaration for a nucleus.
This was why Brant had been so sure that he knew Isabel’s
preference; and he had been mistaken, after all. This was why he
had stopped going to Hollywood, and why he had been so quick to
deny even the hint of a love affair with Dorothy. And Isabel: had she
not steadfastly refused to say in so many words that she did not love
any one else?
Antrim called himself hard names under his breath, and in the first
flush of the new misery would have been glad to be able to charge
his friend with insincerity. He saw the injustice of that in time to fight
it down, and then rancour gave place to honest admiration. How
unselfishly Brant had effaced himself, and how quick he had been to
succour and to offer comfort and countenance to his rival! That, too,
seemed incredible, even to Brant’s best friend; but since incredible
things were the order of the day, it was decently in keeping with all
the other happenings of a time which was hopelessly out of joint.
So Antrim assured himself, with what resignation he could
command; but for all that, this latest buffet of the boxer Misfortune
was as a bolt from the blue, and he staggered under it, though not
toward the abyss, since he had lately had his lesson and had
profited by it.
While he was trying to face the necessity of discussing this newest
phase of the many-sided problem with becoming stoicism a car
overtook them and privacy was at an end. By the time the car had
reached the crossing nearest the mission school he had fought and
won his battle—the fiercest, and, as it chanced, the most
unnecessary, that had ever been thrust upon him—and was ready
with an assurance of good faith which was quite as sincere as it was
costly.
“We mustn’t be discouraged, and we must just go on hoping against
hope,” he said, when he took Dorothy’s hand at parting. “It is a most
intricate tangle, and I can’t begin to unravel it yet; but you may count
on one thing: what one man may do to help Brant will be done. You
have told me some things that I didn’t know before, but I shall work
all the harder for knowing them. And if—if you think it will do any
good, you may tell Isabel that.”
After which generous confession of faith he left her and went to his
office, being minded to dull the keen edge of the new trouble on the
grindstone of hard work. The dulling process was but fairly in train
when the door opened to admit Forsyth.
“Do you allow a man to trespass on Sunday?” he asked, feeling for
the latch of the gate in the counter-railing.
“Surely, when the man is as good a friend as you are. Come in and
sit down.”
“It is about Brant, or I shouldn’t trouble you,” explained the editor,
drawing up a chair. “I have been to see him again, and he is more
obstinate than ever—if that be possible. He said you were there
yesterday, and I came to see if you had been able to do anything
with him.”
“I wasn’t.”
“I was afraid you wouldn’t be. Have you anything new to offer?”
“No.”
“Well, I have. It is pretty plain to you that Brant will hang, lacking
strong counsel, isn’t it?”
“Plainer than I wish it were.”
“Very good. Now there is just one lawyer in Christendom, so far as I
know, whose services he can’t well refuse.”
“Who is it?”
“Judge Langford,” said the editor, crossing his legs and nursing one
knee.
“But, good Lord, Forsyth, you are losing your grip! Have you
forgotten that the judge is William Langford’s father?”
“I have forgotten nothing. From your point of view it would be out of
the question, I grant you; but so far as heard from, you are the only
person who doesn’t believe Brant did it. Now I am convinced that he
did, and the judge is quite as sure that he did; so the difficulties on
that side vanish. I don’t see what is to prevent the judge from taking
the case, if he chooses to.”
“I do. If he should clear Brant it would reopen the entire question as
to Will. You know that as well as I do.”
“He can’t clear him; nobody can do more than get him a light
sentence. But if he could clear him, the boy is well out of it. You were
with Jarvis last night, and you helped him make the discovery that
the shot was fired in line with the door; that it could not well have
been fired from young Langford’s position.”
“Yes, but——”
“But what? Will you say that the judge is an invalid? or that his family
connection with the affair should exempt him?”
“Ye-yes; either or both. That is about what I was going to say.”
“Waiving the first objection,—the judge is a good deal better than a
sick man,—the second is precisely the reason why he should be
willing to offer his services—why he must offer them.”
“How so?”
“Because the thing happened while Brant was in the service of the
family. You know what I mean.”
“I do; but I’d like to know how you found it out.”
Forsyth laughed. “You have forgotten that you told Jarvis the whole
story last night. But no matter about that: don’t you see the judge’s
necessity now?”
“Yes, I don’t know but I do. But supposing the judge doesn’t see it?”
“He must be made to see it; and that brings me up to date. You know
him well; can’t you undertake to enlist him?”
“Frankly, I can’t; and you have given the reason: I know him too well.
He has been a second father to me since my own died.”
“All right; I didn’t know,” said the editor, rising to go. “Somebody has
it to do, and I thought perhaps you might be able to do it best.”
“Who else have you in mind?”
“Nobody. I am going to tackle him myself.”
“You?”
“Yes. Why not? I know the facts, and not being a personal friend, I
sha’n’t scruple to use them. I am going over there now. Will you
come along?”
“Not unless you make a point of it. I should only hamper you.”
“I don’t make a point of it. Let me see; the house is Number Sixteen,
isn’t it?”
“Yes, Altamont Terrace. Don’t be too savage with him, Forsyth. He
has had lots of grief lately.”
“He will have more if he shirks in this affair. But I sha’n’t be any
harsher with him than I have to be.”
Half an hour later Forsyth rang the Hollywood door bell, and sent his
card to the judge, who presently received his visitor in the library.
“I am right glad to see you, Mr. Forsyth,” he said, rising and shaking
hands cordially with the editor. “No, don’t apologize for coming; you
are very welcome. Be seated.”
Forsyth took the proffered chair and plunged at once into the midst
of his errand.
“It is about Brant, as you will infer. Yesterday you asked me to try
again to make him listen to reason in the matter of employing
counsel. I have tried thrice, and failed.”
“Does he still refuse to give his reasons?”
“He does.”
“And is he fully aware of the probable consequences?”
“As fully aware as we are.”
“H’m! that is bad. Have you anything to suggest, Mr. Forsyth?”
“Yes. There is one person whose services he can not well decline.”
“There is? And who is this person?”
“Yourself.”
The judge rose quickly and went to the window, turning his back
upon his visitor. It was full five minutes before he spoke again, and
the editor waited patiently.
“I can scarcely believe you know what you ask, Mr. Forsyth,” said the
judge at length, coming slowly back to his chair. “If the
circumstances were different, if my own son were not unfortunately
involved, I should be the first to volunteer.”
“My dear sir, that is precisely the reason why you should volunteer,”
said Forsyth firmly. “Bear with me a moment while I show you how
the matter presents itself to an unbiassed outsider. Your son absents
himself, and, knowing his habits, you and the other members of the
family are justly anxious. In response to a request from one of your
daughters——”
“Pardon me, but how did you learn that? From him?”
“No, indeed. I learned it, indirectly, from Miss Dorothy herself. As I
was saying, in response to this request my friend undertakes the not
unhazardous task of finding and rescuing your son. He does the first,
and in trying to do the second he commits a crime which, account for
it as you may, would not have been committed at that time and place
if Brant had been less willing to help you and yours. Do I make my
point of view quite clear?”
“Quite.”
“Very well. Under such circumstances the least you can do for my
friend is to defend him. No one else can do it as well. Your mere
presence in court as his counsel may well save his life. Ask yourself
the question seriously, Judge Langford, and if your own sense of
justice will allow you to refuse, I have nothing more to say.”
The judge leaned back in his chair and stared absently at the handful
of fire in the grate. Forsyth’s appeal reopened the question which he
thought he had settled once for all the day before, and the
arguments for and against began once more to marshal themselves
for a fiercer conflict. Before the battle began he made one more
effort to postpone it.
“You ignore the fact that I might end by directing suspicion against
my own son, Mr. Forsyth.”
“I do. I ignore everything but the question of simple justice and a just
man’s obligations.”
The fight was on, and the judge left his chair to pace the floor with
his hands behind him and his head bowed. Forsyth had told him no
new thing. His duty had been clear enough from the moment of
Dorothy’s confession. But the frankness of the editor’s appeal; the
grave ruthlessness with which he held the responsibility up as
something to be decided apart from personal considerations—a
thing affecting justice, and honour, and uprightness—this touched
him very nearly. But opposed to this his fatherhood rose up in mighty
protest pleading as only paternal love can plead for the supremacy
over all abstractions of whatsoever kind or degree. The struggle was
long and bitter; and seeing the story of it writing itself in deeply
graven lines upon the judge’s face as he paced slowly back and
forth, Forsyth had to harden his heart more than once while he
awaited the outcome. “It is the father against the man, but the man
will win,” he said to himself; and as he prophesied, so it came to
pass.
“You have won your cause, Mr. Forsyth.” The judge stopped before
the editor’s chair and spoke abruptly. “Go you to the young man and
tender him my services, and let me know as soon as may be if he
will accept them.”
Forsyth sprang to his feet and wrung the elder man’s hand gratefully.
“God bless you, Judge Langford; it is a noble thing for you to do!
Don’t think for a moment that I undervalue the cost. And now let me
tell you something which will make your task easier. One of my
young men made some experiments last night in the card room at
the Osirian. The result proved conclusively that the shot was fired
from some point in line with the door; that it could not well have been
fired from the chair in which your son was sitting.”
“Thank God for that!” exclaimed the judge fervently; but he added
quickly: “I am glad you withheld that—glad you gave me the
opportunity to give of my best. You will see Brant at once?”
Forsyth hesitated. “As my friend’s friend, I am entirely at his service
and yours. But don’t you think it will be as well if you go to him
unannounced?”
The judge thought about it for a moment.
“In view of his most singular obstinacy, perhaps it will. It is worth
trying, at all events. I will go to-morrow morning.”
“Thank you again,” said the editor, finding his hat. “I presume I need
not say that we have little time to lose. The Grand Jury meets to-
morrow, and Brant will doubtless be indicted during the week.”
“So I have been informed. No matter; we shall be diligent. If the
young man will only confide in me we may be able to discover
something which will serve to—to palliate his crime and to mitigate
the severity of the inevitable sentence.”
So spoke the judge, as though the question of his client’s guilt was a
question fully answered. But when he went to the door with his visitor
he ventured a query which seemed to admit the thin edge of the
wedge of uncertainty.
“There is no shadow of doubt in your mind, is there, Mr. Forsyth?—
as to his guilt, I mean.”
“None whatever,” rejoined the editor sorrowfully. And he went his
way saddened by the thought that he could answer no otherwise.
CHAPTER XXIX
IN WHICH A WILFUL MAN HAS HIS WAY
Since obstinacy, like a hound that is beaten, is constrained to course

the truer for the blows of the whipper-in, two days of confinement
and the anxious expostulations of Forsyth and Antrim appeared to
have no mellowing effect upon the man who stood charged with the
murder of James Harding. So far from it, time and the friendly efforts
of the allies seemed but to crystallize reticent impulse into a fixed
purpose strong to defeat any helpful emprise on the part of his
friends.
Failing to beat down the guard of reticence in any face-to-face
encounter, Forsyth had not been above bribing the turnkey to spy
upon his prisoner; but if the man’s report was to be believed, the
bribe was money wasted. Brant spent the time in reading, was calm
and cheerful, and cared not to know what the newspapers were
saying about him. A model prisoner in every respect, and a man
whom he (the turnkey) would be sorry to see hanged.
So ran the purchased report, and to all outward appearances the
morning of the third day of his confinement found the prisoner in the
same equable frame of mind. But if he fancied he had fortified the
gate of silence until it was proof against the batterings of friendship,
he had left unguarded a postern opening upon the innermost citadel
of whatsoever resolution he was defending. By this postern he was
presently to be assaulted, as was apparent when the jailer unlocked
the cell door to admit Judge Langford. None the less, he welcomed
his visitor heartily, and with becoming warmth.
“Good morning, Judge Langford. This is kind of you. I hardly
expected to see you here,” he said, doing the honours of his
cramped quarters as best he might.
The judge stood his cane in a corner and sat down on the edge of
the cot.
“That doesn’t speak well for your good opinion of me,” he rejoined
genially. “At our last meeting—in your office, if you remember—I
gave you to understand that you had placed me under obligations
which I should gladly repay. Since then you have added somewhat
to the score, and I am here to do what I may to square the account.”
Brant bowed. If he suspected what was coming he made no sign,
choosing rather to let the judge find his own way to what was toward.
“After the examination, Saturday, I met your friend Forsyth—and, by
the way, he is a good friend of yours, too. He tells me that you refuse
to employ counsel, and that without giving any reason. Now we can
not allow that, you know, and to make it impossible for you to persist,
I have this morning taken out a license to practice in the Colorado
courts for the express purpose of defending you.”
“Of what?” exclaimed the prisoner. It was a hopeful sign that the
judge had beaten down the guard of self-possession that Brant
sprang up and began to tramp, three steps and a turn.
“Of defending you, I said. And I am here now to beg you to speak
freely to me as client to advocate.”
“But, my dear sir! it is impossible—utterly impossible! You don’t know
what you have undertaken.”
“I think I do; and I am ready and willing to do my best for you. But to
that end you must be candid with me.”
“I say you do not know,” Brant insisted, going back of the admonition
and speaking to the assertion. “Let me ask you one question, Judge
Langford: Have you remembered that, as my counsel, you would be
obliged to cross-examine your own son?”
“I have.”
“Good God! And you would do it? Why—” The prisoner checked
himself suddenly, as one on the verge of a precipice, faced about,
and went on more calmly: “But you must know that I wouldn’t allow it.
It is the height of generosity and unselfishness on your part to offer
it, but I can not accept—indeed, I can not.”
“You must accept; it is my privilege to insist.”
“And mine to refuse, ungracious as it may seem. I can not give you
my reasons, and you must not ask them. But I’ll say to you what I
have not said to anybody else. If I should suffer you to do this thing
which you propose you would never forgive me as long as you live!”
The judge met him firmly on his own ground. “That is only adding
mystery to mystery. Be frank with me, Mr. Brant, at whatever cost to
yourself, or to any one.”
There was no reply to this, and the judge pressed his advantage
vigorously. “Let us put away all equivocation and seek only to
understand each other,” he went on. “You have committed this
crime”—the prisoner looked up quickly, and seemed to draw breath
of relief—“you have committed this crime, and for some reason, real
or fancied, you are determined to make no effort to save yourself.
From a purely self-centred point of view this may seem right and
proper; but you must remember that no man lives or dies to himself.
You owe something to your friends; you owe something to me, since
it was at least a part of your errand last Friday night to find my son
and to send him home.”
“Then you know—” Brant began, but the judge went on quickly:
“I know that much, and no more. It is for you to tell me the rest.”
“I can’t do it, Judge Langford, and you must forgive me if I still insist
that you do not know what you are asking of me. I appreciate your
kindness more than I can tell, but I can not suffer it. I have sins
enough to answer for, God knows, without adding another for which
there would be no forgiveness in this world or the next.”
The judge shook his head slowly. “Your point of view grows more
and more inexplicable, Mr. Brant. In what possible way could your
confidence in me wrong any one?”
Brant leaned against the wall with folded arms, the gray eyes
narrowing and the firm jaw settling itself in rigid lines.
“Perhaps the word was ill chosen. But if I should do as you ask,
there would be sorrow and grief and misery where I would fain see
happiness. And for myself there would be regrets deep and lifelong.
You will say this is more mystery, but I can not help it. I know quite
well what I am doing, and I have counted the cost to the last farthing.
My life has been a sorry failure, Judge Langford—so poor a thing
that I can afford to give it freely if the law shall demand it.”
The judge pursed his lips and made another step in the outworking
of the problem of deduction.
“Am I to understand by this that free speech on your part would
involve others besides yourself?” he asked.
“It would involve others—yes, many others.”
“Without making your defense less hopeless than it appears to be at
present?”
“Without bringing me anything that I could endure with half the
fortitude that I shall take to the gallows. No; your sympathy and
loving-kindness are very comforting to me, but you must pardon me
if I say that they are quite undeserved. Whatever the jury sees fit to
give me will doubtless have been earned, and well earned.”
The judge saw that the time for winning his client’s confidence was
not yet ripe, and he rose and buttoned his coat.
“You are still giving me riddles, Mr. Brant, and while you elect to do
that, no one can help you intelligently. I am not going to press you
further this morning, but I shall come again—and yet again.
Meanwhile, I am ready and anxious to act for you the moment you
will permit it. I can’t say more, can I?”
He held out his hand, and Brant’s grasp of it was not without
emotion.
“No one could be kinder than you, Judge Langford; and some time,
in this world or another, you shall know that I am not ungrateful.”
When the judge was fairly out of the cell and the sound of his
footsteps had died away in the corridor, Brant threw himself upon the
cot and groaned aloud. But his speech was of gratitude.
“Thank God, that trial is over! If they could devise many more such
torments as that, I’d hang myself to the grating and have done with
it!”
That evening, at nine o’clock, a fact leaked out which Forsyth
hastened to telephone to the house in the Highlands: the Grand Jury
had found a true bill against George Brant for the wilful murder of
James Harding.
CHAPTER XXX
HOW LOVE AND FRIENDSHIP THREW A MAIN
For two weeks after the judge’s first interview with his unwilling
client the possibility of successfully defending Brant receded steadily,
and no new discoveries came to countermine the wall of evidence
which was slowly and surely closing in upon him.
In this interval Colonel Bowran had returned, and, contrary to Brant’s
expectation or desire, had at once championed his draughtsman’s
cause. There had been more than one stormy interview—they were
tempestuous on the colonel’s part, at least—in which the chief
engineer’s wrath was directed at Brant’s obduracy. And when
expostulation and friendly abuse had failed, the colonel sought out
Judge Langford and Forsyth, joining forces cordially with the
prisoner’s friends, but bringing nothing helpful in the way of
additional information.
On the other hand, the prosecution lacked nothing but the culprit’s
confession of having a complete case. Brant’s record was exploited,
and the details of his previous quarrel with Harding, or so much of
them as were known to Draco’s bartender, were dragged out of
Deverney as sound teeth are extracted from the jaw of an unwilling
patient.
So much of the State’s side of the case was known to Brant’s friends
—by what means Forsyth’s young men could best have explained—
and there was consternation among them in just proportion. If the
tide could not be stemmed before the rapidly approaching day of the
trial, the judge knew he should go into court without any case. And,
making due allowance for the change that had recently been
wrought in public sentiment, he had every reason to fear the worst
for his client.
“I tell you, Forsyth, the man will hang in spite of everything we can
do.”
So much the judge was impelled to say in one of the many
conferences with the editor, and Forsyth had nothing to offer in
rebuttal.
“I’m afraid he will,” said the editor. And then: “We are all in the same
boat, and on the same side of the boat—all but Harry Antrim. He still
asserts his belief in Brant’s innocence. In his way he is as obdurate
as Brant himself. But it is entirely sentiment on his part. I wish his
faith had a better foundation.”
So Antrim had wished many times; and after having racked his brain
for a fortnight for something tangible wherewith to buttress his belief,
he was finally indebted to the chapter of accidents for a clew which
seemed to point most hopefully.
It was in the afternoon of that day in which Judge Langford had
summed up Brant’s case in the talk with the editor. Antrim had been
rummaging in his safe for a missing paper, and had chanced to
come upon the sealed envelope given him by Brant for safe-keeping
on the morning after the burglary at Mrs. Seeley’s.
His first impulse was to send it posthaste to the judge; his next was
to break the seal and read the sworn evidence of Harding’s guilt in
the year-agone crime committed in Taggett’s Gulch. Five minutes
later he was writing a note to Dorothy, begging her to come quickly
to the office.
Dorothy answered the note in person, and Antrim took her into the
superintendent’s room and closed the door. What he had to say
brooked neither listeners nor interruptions.
“I’m awfully glad you came right away,” he began. “I was afraid
something might hinder you, and what I want to talk about won’t
wait.”
Dorothy sat down in the superintendent’s big chair and unpinned her
veil. “I was just getting ready to come down for Isabel when Tommie
came. He said it was a ‘rush message,’ so I caught the next car.”
“That was lucky.” Antrim was tramping up and down before her, full
to bursting with his news. Suddenly he stopped and confronted her.
“Dorothy, would you still be glad to believe that Brant isn’t guilty?”
She sat up very straight at this and the sensitive chin quivered a
little. “That is a hard question, Harry. If it wasn’t Mr. Brant——”
“I know what you are thinking about,” he broke in. “But just leave Will
out of it entirely; try to forget that he was there.”
“If I could do that, the question—your question—would answer itself.”
“That is all I want to know. Now I have believed all along that Brant
didn’t do it; and a little while ago I found some papers which go to
show that he could have no possible motive for doing it. It isn’t
necessary to go over the whole thing, but you will understand what I
mean when I tell you that these papers are Brant’s, and any time he
wanted to get rid of Harding all he had to do was to turn them over to
the district attorney of Pitkin County. That would have been the end
of Mr. Murderer Harding as soon as they could catch and hang him.”
“You say you found these papers—where?”
“In my safe. Brant gave them to me to keep for him.”
“Do you know why he did that?”
“No.”
“I do.” She tugged at the fingers of her glove and a light came into
her eyes that told Antrim more than she would have admitted by
word of mouth under torture. “It was because he was afraid to keep
them; afraid he might be tempted to let the law do what everybody is
saying he did with his own hand. Harry, he is innocent!”
“Of course he is; that is what I’ve been saying all along. Now there
are two of us who believe it, and something has got to be done
quick.”
“What had you thought of?”
“I can’t think—I’m too foolishly rattled to think; and that is why I sent
for you. You can plan all around the rest of us. What do you say?”

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Suggestions for Designing Your Course Beyond the Basic

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Scientific Word Slides

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Jeffrey M. Wooldridge is University Distinguished Professor of Economics at Michigan State

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