Dr.

Elfarazdag Mahjoub Mohammed

University of Tabuk
Faculty of Science
Department of Statistics
 Historical background of Demography

 The word demography is constructed of two Greek words

 Demo: People
 Grapho: To draw or to write.

 Demography means to draw or to write about the people.

 Demography generally deals with the issues of fertility,

mortality and migration.
 Demographical Scientists :

1.JOHN GRAUNT:
He is an English demographer , considered
as the father of demography , he was
published his first book in 1662 which
titled:

NATURAL AND POLITICAL OBSERVATIONS

MADE UPON THE BILLS OF MORTALITY.
 2.Chille Guillard

He is the first one who used the word

demography in 1855, when he published
his book :

ELEMENTS OF HUMAN STATISTICS OR

COMPARATIVE DEMOGRAPHY

He defined demography as mathematical

knowledge of population .
 3.Warrn S. Thompson
He published his book :
POPULATION PROBLEMS
This questions raised three important questions:
1.What are the changes in population size?
* How are these changes brought about?
* What is the significant of these changes form the
stand points of human welfare?
2.What are the people found?
* what are the changes in the population distribution
in communities and areas?
3.What kind of people found in any given population group?
* How people differ from one group to other?
 Demographical Terminologies

1.Size:
Defined as the number of (Persons) in the population.
2.Distribution:
Defined as an arrangements of population in a given space at a given time .

3.Structure:
Defined as the distribution of population among its sex and age group.

4.Changes:
Defined as the growth or declining of the total population or it is one of it is
structural units.
 Poston’s definition

 Demography is the scientific study of the size,

composition, and spatial distribution of human
Populations.
 It investigates changes in population size,
composition, and distribution, resulting from
fertility, mortality, and migration
Concerns of demography
• Population size
• Population growth or decline
• Population processes/components
• Population distribution
• Population structure
• Population characteristics
Primary demographic questions
• How large (or small) is the population?

• How is the population composed, in terms of

age, sex, race, marital status, and so forth?
– What are the characteristics of the population?

• How is the population distributed spatially?

– Populations are not randomly distributed in space

• How population changes happen over time?

Answers to these questions
• These demographic questions are answered in
terms of the three demographic processes
(components of demographic change)
– Fertility
– Mortality
– Migration
 Some definitions of demographical
analysis

1. Study
of the population variations and changes
components.

2. Scientificstudy of human population with respect to

size, structure and development.

3. Studyof statistical methods of human population

involving the measurements of size, growth,
diminishing of the number of people.
 Definition Out Comes
A. Demographical analysis less concern with
individuals problems.

B. Demographical analysis utilizes the mathematical

and statistical tools in manipulating human
community problems.

C. Demographical analysis focus on the issues of

pop. Size , structure, distribution in context of
space and time.

D. Population size deals with fertility, mortality and

migration.
Sources of Information

Population Census

Sample Survey

Vital Registration System

 1.Population Census

It is a total process of collecting, compiling,

evaluating, analyzing and publishing economic and
social data at specific time to all persons in the
country or in a well delimited part of the country
 Population Census Features
1. Each individual is separately and only one
enumerated.
2. Characteristics of each person are recorded such as
(Age, Sex, education etc…)

3. Population Census should cover precise defined

territory or specific area.
4. Reference period should be predetermined for the
enumeration.

5. Population Census usually taken at regular interval

usually every 10 years.
 Uses of population Census

A)
• Planning

B)
• Administrative purposes

C)
• Research

Generally population Census is cost full in

term of time and money.
 2.Sample Survey

It is a process of Studying a representative part of

the population instead of studying the whole
population. Sample survey reduce cost in term
of time and money and the data is more
reliable.
 Advantages of Sample survey

1) Some special aspects of the population can studied in

depth such as ( heath survey, education survey etc…).

2) The quality of data obtained from the sample survey

is better than that obtained from population census
because they are collected by comparatively small
number of well trained enumerator.
 3.Vital Statistics

It refers to all statistics obtained from

registration process such as birth
registrations, death registrations, marriage
registrations etc…. Birth

➢ Vital Events: Death

Marriage

Divorce etc..
Uses of Vital Statistics
 Age and sex composition

 Every pop. has age and sex composition - this composition

can affect the social and economic situation.

 Some population are relatively young , other pop. are

relatively old. This variation in age composition leads to
variations in labor force markets , in schooling, as well as
medical needs, consumer preferences and crime patterns.
 Developing countries have relatively young pop.
While most developed countries have old pop.

 In many developing countries 40% or more of

the pop. Is under age 15 and 4% over age 65.

Median age
It is the age at which half of the pop. Is older
and half is younger.
Example:
The median age in 1995 in Costa Rica pop. was
23 years while in Jordan it was 18 ( young pop)
and in Sweden it was 38 (old pop)
 1. Sex Ratio

 It is the ratio of male to female in a given pop.

Usually expressed as the number of males for
every 100females.
 In birth sex ratio in most countries is about 105
or 106 males per 100 females, then this ratio
vary over time due to different factors such as
migration , traffic accidence deaths, etc…)
 Sex ratio Formula

Sex ratio = Number of males * K

Number of females

Example :
Assume that in Nigeria in 1995 the female pop.
Was 63995848 and the male pop. was 61574398 ,
find the sex ratio?
Sol. :
Sex ratio = Number of males * K =61,574,398
*100 = 96.2
Number of females 63,995,848

There is about (96 )male for every ( 100) female

 2. Age dependency ratio
 It is ratio of persons in the “ dependent” age ( generally under
15 and over 64) to those in the economical productive age (
15- 64) in the pop.

 When detailed data are lacking , the age –dependency can be

used as an indicator of the economic burden .

 Some persons may defined as dependent although they are in

the productive age due to unemployment or health factors.
 Age dependency formula

Age dependency ratio= pop. Under age( 15 )+pop. over age ( 64 )

pop. Ages (15-64)

➢ The age dependency ratio in France in (1996 )

was 53. which means there were 53 persons in
the dependency age for every 100 persons while
Libya dependency ratio was 92.
Example:
Assume that in country (A), we have the below data ,
Calculate the age dependency ratio.
Age group Pop.
Under age 15 3,500,000
15 ------64 12,000,000
Over age 64 2,000,000

➢ Age dependency ratio= pop. Under age( 15 ) + pop. over

age (64) * K
pop. Ages (15-64)
=3,500,000+2,000,000 * 100 = 45.83
12,000,000
➢ There were about 46 person in the dependent age for every
100 person in country A.
 Fertility
➢ Refers to actual reproductive performance .
➢ Fertility and natality are closed together , but in fertility we consider
only the living birth.
➢ Live Birth:

United nation defined the live birth as a complete expulsion or extraction

from mother as a product of conception, irrespective of the duration of
pregnancy, which after such separation breath or show any other evidence
of life such as beating of heart, pulsation umbuical cord or movements of
muscles whether or not the placenta is attached.
 Fertility Sterility Fecundity

• Actual • Female or • Physiological

reproductive male or capacity to
performance couple which reproduce or
in capable to maximum
reproduce fertility level
that can be
attained
4. Complete family size Birth Order 6. Parity

• Total number • Classification •A women

classification
of children of a live birth according to
born by a of a woman the number
of children
woman up to such as first born a live
the end of order birth, for them.
•A B C
her second order woman
reproductive birth etc… •1 2 3
Child
period.
• A: first parity
 1. Crude Birth Rate
 It is defined as the number of births in a year per 100
or 1000 or 10 000 etc.. of the mid year pop (pop
mean).

CBR= (B/P)*K

Where:
B: Live births during the year.
P: Middle year population (population mean)
K: constant ( 1 – 100 – 1000 )
Example:
Assume that the Saudi middle year population in 1995
is (27000ooo )and the total living birth is (2700ooo),
calculate the crude birth rate.
Sol.:
CBR = (B/P)*K
B: 2 700 000
P: 27 000 000
K: 100 ( it can be 1 – 100 –1000 – etc)
CBR= (2 700 000/27 000 000)*100 = 10
10 births per 100 population
Example :
If the total number births in Area (A) is 163 and the total
mid year population is 9281 during 1967/1968, calculate
the crude birth rate (CBR) for area (A)?
Sol:

CBR= (B/P)*K
B= 163
P= 9281
K=1000
CBR=(163/9281)*1000=17.56 birth per 1000
 Advantages of crude birth rate

1. Easy to compute.

2. Give simple indication of the fertility .

3. Mentioning the contribution of fertility to the

growth rate of the population
 2. Annual average birth rate

Some times we may need to find the birth rate for

more than one year for instance
Population Living birth
P1 X1
P2 X2
P3 X3

Annual average birth rate = (1/3) (X1+X2+X3) *K

P2
Example:
Find the annual average birth rate for the following data
Year population Living birth
2000 25,900,000 3,000,000
2001 26,400,000 4,000,000
2003 27,000,000 5,000,000
Sol. :
Annual average birth rate = (1/3) (X1+X2+X3) * K
P2
= (1/3)(3,000,000+ 4,000,000 + 5,000,000) *
100
26,400,000
= 45.45 about 45 births per 100 person

Annual average birth rate describe a longer period of time than CBR
 3. General Fertility Rate (GFR)
 The general fertility rate ( also called fertility rate) is the
number of living birth per 1000 women ages 15-49 in a given
year in a particular area.

 GFR is better to compare fertility levels among pop. than crude

birth rate CBR because it relates births to the women at age
(15 – 49) and exclude male i.e. GFR is more refine than CBR,
but also it is not completely refine because women at age 15 -
49 includes divorced and single women .
 General Fertility Rate (GFR) formula

GFR = Number of living births * K

Number of women ages (15- 49)

Example:
Consider the following data to calculate the general fertility rate .

Age group Number of live birth No. of women

15 ---- 19 165 2386

20 --- 24 375 2048
25 --- 29 451 1878
30 --- 34 264 1117
35 --- 39 174 1106
40 --- 44 53 6501
45 --- 49 14 547
Total 1496 15583
Sol. :

GFR = Number of living births * K

Number of women ages (15- 49)

= 1496 * 100 = 9.6 per 100 women at ages (15- 49 ).

15583
 4. Age specific fertility rate(ASFR)

Fertility rate can also be calculated for specific age

groups to see the differences in fertility behavior at
different ages or for comparison over time.
ASFR Formula:

ASFR = Number of births for age group (X) *K

Number of women at age group (X)
Example:
Compute the GFR & ASFR for the following demographical data
Sol:
➢ GFR = 162 * 100 = 8.61 about 9 births per 100 women
1882
Age group Living birth No. of women ASFR
15 --- 19 10 360 (10/360) * 100= 2.78
20 --- 24 57 387 (57/387) * 100 = 14.73
25 ---29 49 336 (49/387)* 100 = 14.58
30 --- 34 34 351 (34/351) * 100 = 9.96
35 ---39 10 257 (10/257) * 100 = 3.89
40 --- 44 2 191 (2/191) * 100=1.05
Total 162 1882

➢ Childbearing ages for women are assumed for statistical

purposes to be 15---44 or 15---49.
 5. General order specific fertility rate
(GOSFR)
 It a number of births of a given order per 100 or
1000 women at a childbearing age.

GOSFR = Number of births of a given order * 1000

Number of women ages (15-44 or 15- 49)
Example:
Given the following birth order and their number of living births
Birth order Live birth
1st order 10,263
2nd order 9,114
3rd order 8,264
4th order 7,132
5th order 6,174
6th order 5,121
7th order 4,278
8th order 13,292
Total 63638

If the total number of women at a childbearing age (15—44) is 261,963

, find the general order fertility rate (GOFR) i.e. 1st order up to 8th order.
Sol.:
GOSFR = Number of births of a given order *
1000
Number of women ages (15-44 or 15- 49)

➢ 1st order specific fertility rate =(10,263/261,963) * 1000 =

39.18 per 1000 women at childbearing age.
➢ 2nd order specific fertility rate =(9,114/261,963) * 1000 = 34.79 per 1000 women at
childbearing age.

➢ 3rd order specific fertility rate =(3,264/261,963) * 1000 =

31.55 per 1000 women at childbearing age.

➢ 4th order specific fertility rate =(7,132/261,963) * 1000 = 27.23 per 1000 women at
childbearing age.

➢ 5th order specific fertility rate =(6,174/261,963) * 1000 =

23.57 per 1000 women at childbearing age.
➢ 6th order specific fertility rate =(5,121/261,963) * 1000
= 19.55 per 1000 women at childbearing age.

➢ 7th order specific fertility rate =(4,278/261,963) * 1000 = 16.33 per 1000
women at childbearing age.

➢ 8th order specific fertility rate =(13,292/261,963) * 1000

= 50.74 per 1000 women at childbearing age
➢ Remark :

 GOSFR = GFR
 Therefore GFR = (63,638/261,963)*1000 = 242.93 per
1000 women at childbearing age or
GFR = 39.18 + 34.79+ …….+ 16.33 +
50.74 = 242.94
 6. Total Fertility Rate(TFR)
 Some times we may need to summarize what fertility is now, without
waiting for the end of the childbearing years. For this purpose the
total fertility rate is used.
 The total fertility rate (TFR) is the average number of children that would be
born to a woman by the time she ended childbearing if she were to
pass through all her childbearing years conforming to the age
specific fertility rates of a given year.
 The TFR sums up, in a single number, the fertility of all women at a
given point in time.
 In effect, it says: This is the total number of children a woman would
have if the fertility rates for a given year applied to her throughout
her reproductive life.
 (The below example showing how the TFR is calculated.)
Example :
Consider the below table for country(A) in year 2000, to find the GFR and the TFR
Age group No. of women Living birth Age specific birth Age specific birth
rate per women rate per women
(ASBR per women) (ASBR per
women in 5 years
(15-16-17-18-19))

15 --- 19 360 10 0.03 o.15

20 --- 24 387 57 0.15 0.75
25 ---29 336 49 0.15 0.75
30 --- 34 351 34 0.10 0.50
35 ---39 257 10 0.04 0.20
40 --- 44 191 2 0.01 0.05
Total 1882 162 2.40

 GFR=(162/1882) * 100= 8.6 births per 100 women at childbearing age.

 TFR =2.4 birth per a single woman or 240 births per 100 women which means women will give average birth
of 2.4 child during their childbearing age if the ASFR is not changed.
 factors affecting fertility

1. Percentage of women in union( Marriage).

2. Percentage of women Breastfeeding.

3. Contraceptive prevalence rate.

4. Abortion rate.
 1. PERCENTAGE OF WOMEN IN UNION(MARRIAGE)

The proportion of women who are in union is affected by other

demographic factors including :

1. The age at first marriage or union.

2. Rates of divorce, separation.

3. Male mortality levels.

Percentage of women in Union = Number 0f married women ages (15-49) * K

Number of women ages (15- 49)
Example:

Assume that the in country (A) in 2006 there were

39,002,000 married women ages 15-49 while the total
number of women ages 15-49 is 56,670,000, calculate
the percentage of women in union?
Solution:
Percentage of women in Union = Number 0f married women ages (15-49) * 100
Number of women ages (15- 49)

= 39,002,000 * 100 = 68.9 in country (A) in 2006 , 69% of women of

56,670,000 reproductive age (15- 49) are married
 2. PERCENTAGE OF WOMEN BREASTFEEDING
The percentage of women who are breastfeeding is
helpful in determining the number of women who are
at risk of pregnancy, because exclusive breastfeeding
of an infant can lengthen the period of time before
menstruation resumes.

No. of women with infants under

% of women breastfeeding= age (1) who are breastfeeding * 100
No. of women with infants under age (1)
 3. Contraceptive prevalence rate

 The contraceptive prevalence rate is the number of women of reproductive

age who are using contraception per 100 women of reproductive age.

 This measure provides an indication of the number of women who have a

lower risk of conception at a given time.

 This measure may be calculated for all women or subpopulations such as

married women, unmarried women, or women who are sexually active.

 Women’s use of contraception ranges from less than 20 percent in many

African countries to 75 percent or more in many European countries,
Australia, Brazil, and a few countries in East and Southeast Asia.
 Number of women (ages 15-49)
Contraceptive prevalence rate = using contraception * 100
Number of women surveyed
(ages 15-49)

Example:

In Bangladesh in 1996-97, the number of women ages(15-49 )

who are using contraceptive is 5,268 and the number of
surveyed women ages (15-49) is 10,707 calculate the
contraceptive prevalence rate for Bangladesh in that year.
Solution:
Number of women (ages 15-49)
Contraceptive prevalence rate = using contraception * 100
Number of women surveyed
(ages 15-49)

= 5,268 *100 = 49.2

10,707
In Bangladesh in 1996-97, the contraceptive prevalence rate for women ages 15-49 was 49.
 4. Abortion Rate & Abortion Ratio
1) Abortion Rate:
The abortion rate is the number of abortions per 1,000
women of reproductive age in a given year.

Abortion Rate = Number of abortions * K

Number of women ages (15-49)
2) Abortion Ratio:
The abortion ratio is the number of abortions per 1,000 live
births in a given year.

Abortion Ratio = Number of abortions * K

Number of live births

(This ratio should not be confused with the abortion rate, which is described above.)
Example:
In 2009 in Hungaria the total number of abortion was
67,600 case and the total number of live births was
105,272 births with 2,200,300 women ages (15-49).
Calculate :
1. Abortion Rate.
2. Abortion Ratio.
Solution:
1. Abortion Rate = Number of abortions * K = 67,600 * 1000 = 34.8
Number of women ages (15-49) 2,200,300
In 2009, there were 35 abortions in Hungary per 1,000 women of childbearing ages 15-49.

2. Abortion Ratio = Number of abortions * K = 67,600 * 1000 =

727.6 Number of live birth 105,272
In 1996, there were 728 abortions per 1,000 live births in Hungary.
 Mortality
Mortality refers to deaths that occur within a population. While we all eventually die, the
probability of dying during a given time period is linked to many factors, such as age, sex,
race, occupation, and social class. The incidence of death can reveal much about a
population’s standard of living and health care.
1. Death Rate (CRUDE DEATH RATE)
The death rate (also called the crude death rate) is the number of deaths per 1,000
population in a given year. Crude death rates are affected by many population
characteristics, particularly age structure. It is therefore prudent, when comparing death
rates between countries, to adjust for differences in age composition before making
inferences about a country’s health, economic, or environmental conditions.

Death Rate = Number of deaths * K

(CDR) Total population
For example, Sweden’s crude death rate is higher than
Panama’s—11 per 1,000 population compared with 5 per
1,000—despite the fact that life expectancy in Sweden is 79
years, compared with only 74 for Panama. The higher
Swedish rate is attributable to the differences in age
composition between the two countries. “Old” Sweden has
18 percent of its population in the 65-and-older age group,
where deaths are more likely to occur, while “young”
Panama’s proportion of elderly persons is only 3 percent of
the total population. Thus, Sweden has a higher proportion
of deaths in the total population each year than Panama,
even though Sweden has better health conditions.
Example:
 In the early 1990s, the number of deaths in Turkey was
405,000 and the total population was 61,644,000
calculate the death rate for Turkey in 1990s.
Sol:
Death Rate (CDR) = Number of deaths * K
Total population

Death Rate = 405,000 * 1,000 = 6.6

61,644,000
In the early 1990s, the death rate in Turkey was 7 per 1,000
population.
 2. Age-Specific Death Rate
 Death rates can be calculated for specific age groups in order
to compare mortality at different ages or at the same age over
time. Comparisons also can be made between countries or
areas.
 Because mortality varies greatly by sex and race, age-specific
death rates are often given separately for males and females
and for different racial groups in a population.

Age-Specific Deaths of people

Death Rate = ages (L-H) *K
Total population
ages (L-H)
Example:
The following data gives the population and number of deaths for each
age group
Age group Total population Number of deaths
15 --- 19 350,000 1300
20 ---24 236,000 2000
25 --- 29 332,000 6000
30 --- 34 546,000 950
35 --- 39 100,000 4000
40--- 44 325,000 7000

Compare the age specific death rate for the following age group :
A. (20 --- 24)and (25 --- 29)
B. (35 --- 39) and (40 --- 44)
Solution:
Deaths of people
Age-Specific = ages (L-H) * K
Death Rate Total population
ages (L-H)

A) (20 --- 24) and (25 --- 29)

I) Age specific death rate for the age group (20 --- 24) = 2000 * 100 = 0.85 deaths/100people
236,000
II) Age specific death rate for the age group (25 --- 29) = 6000 * 100 = 1.81 deaths/100people
332,000
It Is clear that the age specific death rate is higher in age group (25 --- 29) than ( 20 --- 24)

B) (20 --- 24) and (25 --- 29)

I) Age specific death rate for the age group (35 --- 39) = 4000 * 100 = 4 deaths/100people
100,000
II) Age specific death rate for the age group (40--- 44) = 7000 * 100 = 2.15 deaths/100people
325,000
It Is clear that the age specific death rate is higher in age group (35 --- 39) than ( 40 --- 44)
 3. Cause-Specific Death Rate
Cause-specific death rates are usually expressed in deaths per 100,000
because, for most causes of deaths, the rates of occurrence are very low.

Cause-Specific Death Rate = Deaths from (disease X) * K

Total population

Example:

The below table shows the number of deaths which caused by each
disease , given that the total population is 32,000,000

Disease Number of deaths

Cancer 1200
Hypertension 4500

Calculate the cause specific death rate for cancer and hypertension.
Solution:
A. Cause specific death rate for cancer :
Cause-Specific Death Rate = Deaths from (disease X) * K
Total population

= 1200 * 100,000 = 3.75 deaths/100,000 people

32,000,000
B. Cause specific death rate for Hypertension :

= 4,500 * 100,000 = 14.06 deaths/100,000 people

32,000,000
 4. Proportion Dying of a Specific Cause

Deaths from a specific cause can be expressed as a

percentage of all deaths. The causes of death vary greatly
from population to population and from period to period
and are influenced by many factors, including health and
environmental conditions. In 1900 in the United States, the
pneumonia-bronchitis-influenza class of diseases was the
leading cause of death, accounting for 17.2 percent of all
deaths, while heart disease accounted for 7.1 percent of all
deaths. By 1996, however, heart disease was the leading
cause of death (31.6 percent of all deaths), while
pneumonia-bronchitis-influenza accounted for only 3.6
percent of deaths. The proportion dying of a specific cause
should not be confused with the cause-specific death rate.
 Proportion dying of disease (X) = No. of deaths of disease * K
Total No. of deaths

Example:
In 1996 the total number of deaths in the USA was
2,322,421 while the number of deaths from cancer
was 544,278 calculate the percentage of deaths
from cancer?
Sol:

% of deaths from cancer = 544,278 * 100

2,322,421
 Infant Mortality
Rate
The infant mortality rate is the number of deaths of
infants under age 1 per 1,000 live births in a given
year.
The infant mortality rate is considered a good
indicator of the health status of a population.
Number of deaths of
infants under age 1
Infant Mortality Rate = in a given year *K
Total live births
in that year
Example :
In 1996 the Venezuela’s number of deaths of
infants (under age 1) was 10,016 with total
number of live birth of 595,816 , find the infant
mortality rate

Infant mortality rate = 10016 * 1000 =16.8

595,816
There were 17 deaths of infants under age 1 per
1,000 live births in Venezuela in 1996.
 Maternal
Mortality Ratio
The maternal mortality ratio is the number of
women who die as a result of complications of
pregnancy or childbearing in a given year per
100,000 live births in that year. Deaths due to
complications of spontaneous
or induced abortions
Maternal are
Mortality Ratio included.
= Number of maternal deaths * K

Total live births

Example :
If the number of maternal deaths in Russia in 1994
was 185 and the total live births was 1,408,159
find the maternal mortality ratio
Solution
Maternal Mortality Ratio = 185 x 100,000 = 13.1
1,408,159
There were 13 maternal deaths per 100,000 live
births in Russia in 1994.
 Life table
 It is an effective way of expressing the death rates experienced by a
population during a chosen period of time
 Types of life tables :

A) Life table classified according to the year of the life table.

1)cohort life table – generation life table
2) current life table- specific life table

B) Life table classified according to the length of age interval.

1) Complete life table

2) A bridge life table
 Life table functions
 Age : x

Age means exact age

 l0: it’s an assumed number of births at age 0, usually called the cohort or radix
of the life table, usually taken as 100,000.
 lx: Survivors at age x, the number of persons living at any specific age x in any
year out of an assumed number of births l0, number of survivors.
 lx+1: survivor at age x+1, is the number of persons living at age x+1 in any year.

 dx: number of deaths, is the number of persons among lx who die before
reaching the age x+1. dx = lx –lx+1
 Px: Probability of survivor is the probability that a person aged x survives up to
his /her next birth day x+1
Px = lx+1
lx
 qx : Mortality Rate is the probability that a person of exact age x will die within
one year
qx = lx+1 - lx = dx = 1- Px
lx lx

so that d x = l x . qx

dx : is equal the number of people who reach age x , multiplied by the probability of
dying before reaching the next higher age x+1
Since . dx = lx – lx+1 …………… (1)
and dx = lx . qx ….……..(2) then from equation One

lx+1 = lx – dx ………...(3) substitute equation (2) in (3)

lx+1 = lx – lx . qx Take lx as a common factor

lx+1 = lx ( 1- qx ) = lx . Px
So that lx = l0 . Px

 Lx (Person years ): It is the number of years lived in the aggregate by the cohort
of lx persons between exact age x and x+1 of persons a live at age x. It referred to
as person – years lived and is equivalent to population, therefore it is called life
table -population.
Lx = 1 ( lx + lx+1 ) for x≥ 2
2
 Tx ( Person years lived after x): It is number of years lived by cohort lx

( person a live at age x) after attaining age x, that is the total number of years remaining
to the cohort when it reach age x until the last person dies at age w, it is considered as the
total future life time of the lx persons who reach age x.

Example: Complete the following life table

Age x lx dx =lx - lx+1 qx Lx = 1 ( lx + lx+1 ) Tx ex0 = Tx

2 lx

(1) (2) (3) (4)=(3)/(2) (5) (6) (7)=(6)/(2)

0 100 5 0.05 97.5 395 3.95

1 95 15 0.16 87.5 297.5 3.13
2 80 5 0.06 77.5 210 2.63
3 75 20 0.27 65.5 132.5 1.77
4 55 15 0.27 47.5 67.5 1.23
5 40 40 1.00 20 20 0.50
6 0 - - -
 Exercise:
Fill in the blanks in a portion of life table given below

Age in
lx dx px qx Lx Tx ex0
years

? ? ?
4 92000 480 ? 3,500,300

? ? ? ? ? ?
5 400
 Migration
 Migration is the geographic movement of people across a specified
boundary for the purpose of establishing a new permanent residence.

 Along with fertility and mortality, migration is a component of

population change.

 The terms “immigration” and “emigration” are used to refer to moves

between countries (international migration).

 The parallel terms “in-migration” and “outmigration” are used for

movement between areas within a country (internal migration).
Immigration Rate:
The immigration rate is the number of immigrants arriving at a
destination per 1,000 population at that destination in a given year.
Number of
Immigration Rate = immigrants * K
Total population
at destination
Emigration Rate:
The emigration rate is the number of emigrants departing an area of
origin per 1,000 population at that area of origin in a given year.
Number of
Emigration Rate = emigrants * K
Total population
at origin
Net Migration:

The net effect of immigration and emigration on an area’s population

(increase or decrease) is referred to as net migration.

Net Migration Rate:

The net migration rate shows the net effect of immigration and
emigration on an area’s population, expressed as increase or decrease per
1,000 population of the area in a given year.

Net Migration Rate = No. of immigrants – No. of emigrants * K

Total Population
Example:
In 1996 the Swedish population was 8,844,499 if the total number of
immigrants was 39,895 and the total number of emigrants was 33,884 ,
calculate
1. The immigration rate
2. The emigration rate
3. The net migration
4. The net migration rate.
Solution:
Number of
1. Immigration Rate = immigrants * K = 39,895 * 1000 = 4.5
Total population 8,844,499
at destination
immigration rate was 4.5 per 1,000 residents.
 Number of
2. Emigration Rate = emigrants * K = 33,884 * 1000 = 3.8
Total population 8,844,499
at origin
Emigration rate was 3.8 emigrants per 1,000 residents.

3. The net migration = No. of immigrants – No. of emigrants

39,895 – 33,884 = 6,011
4. The net migration Rate = No. of immigrants – No. of emigrants * K

Total Population

= 39,895 – 33,884 *
1000 = + 0.7
8,844,499
a net increase of 0.7 persons per 1,000 population through migration
 Population Change

Population change has three components: births, deaths , and

migration. As people are born, die, or move, their total
numbers in an area change. During most of history, world
population increased very slowly, but during the 20th century,
this growth has accelerated.
The Balancing
Equation
The most basic method of calculating numerical population change

over time is the “balancing equation,” shown below.

P1 + (B – D) + (I – E) = P2

Where :

P2 is the population at the later date,

P1 is the population at the earlier date;

B is births and D is deaths between the two dates; and

I is immigration (or in-migration) and E is emigration (or out-migration) between

the two dates.at the earlier date.
Example:
in Jan. 1996 Poland population was 38,609,400if the total
number of birth and deaths were 428,200 and 385,500
successively with immigration of 8,200 and emigration of 21,000
Solution:
Jan. 1996 + 1996 – 1996 + 1996 – 1996 = Jan. 1997
population births deaths immigration emigration population of Poland
of Poland

38,609,400 + (428,200 – 385,500) + (8,200 – 21,000) = 38,639,300

During 1996, the population of Poland increased by 29,900.

 Natural
Increase

Natural increase is the surplus (or deficit) of births over deaths in a

population in a given time period.

NI = B – D
Where

NI is the natural increase during a period and

B is the number of births and D is the number of deaths during that period.
MESUREMENT OF MORBIDITY (PREVALENCE)
 Morbidity:

➢ ➢ Morbidity has been defined as “any departure, subjective

or objective, from a state of physiological well being”.

➢➢ The term is used equivalent to such terms as sickness,

illness, disability etc.
❑ WHO expert committee on health statistics noted in its 6th

report that morbidity could be measured in terms of 3 units-

1. Persons who were ill

2. The illness (periods or spells of illness) that these persons experienced

3. the duration (days, weeks, etc)of these illnesses .

❑ These three aspects are commonly measured by morbidity rate or ratio

namely,

1. Frequency

2. Duration

3. severity
 Prevalence

The term “disease prevalence” refers specifically to ALL

CURRENT CASES (old and new) existing at a given point in time or
over a period of time in a given population.
 PREVALENCE
 Prevalence is defined as the number of affected persons
present in the population at a specific time divided by the
number of persons in the population at that same time

Prevalence rate =
no.cases of a disease present in the population at a specified time ×1000
no.of persons in the population at that specified time

Although referred to as a rate , prevalence rate is really a ratio.

Example
Assume that In 2001 , Tabuk reported an estimated 253,040
residents over 20 years of age with diabetes and According to
Saudi census that in 2001 Tabuk population over 20 was
5008,862.calculate prevalence rate?
Prevalence rate =253,040 ×1000 = 5.1%
5008862
-Which explained as 51 cases per 1000 residents over 20
years of age
Types of prevalence

1.POINT PREVALENCE
2.PERIOD PREVALENCE
 Point Prevalence

:Itis defined as number of all current cases (old and new) of a disease
at one point of time, in relation to a defined population. The point in
a point prevalence, may for all practical purposes consists of a day,
several days or even a few weeks depending upon the time it takes to
examine the population sample. For eg. Do you currently have T.B?
PP = no of all cases (old & new) of a specified disease existing at a given point in time X 100
Estimated population at the same point in time
• When term ” prevalence rate ” is used , without any further
qualification , it is taken to mean “point prevalence
 Period Prevalence

Period prevalence measures the frequency of all current cases (old and
new) existing during a defined period of time. e.g (Annual Prevalence)
expressed in relation to defined population.

It includes cases arises before but extending into or through to the year
as well as those cases arising during the year. e.g have you had TB in
DURING last years?
PP = no of all cases (old & new) of a specified disease during a given period of time interval ×100
estimated mid year population at risk
EXAMPLE
Suppose we followed a population of 150 persons for one year and 25
people had a disease of interest at the start of follow up and another
15 new cases developed during the year.

Q.1
What is the period prevalence for the year?
PP=(25+15)/150=0.27 or 27%

Q.2
What is the point prevalence at the start of the period?
P= 25/150=.017 or 17%
 Factors affecting prevalence rate:

Increased by:
1) duration of disease

2) Prolongation of life of patients without cure

3) Increase new cases(incidence)

4) In-migration of cases

5) Out-migration of healthy people

6) In- migration of susceptible people

7) Improved diagnostic facilities(better reporting)

And decreased by:

1) Shorter duration of disease.

2) High case –fatality rate from disease.

3) Decrease in new cases (incidence)

4) In-migration of healthy people

5) Out-migration of cases

6) Improved cure rate of cases

 Relationship between prevalence and
incidence
Prevalence =incidence × time

For instance If an incidence is 20 cases per 1000 population per year then
the prevalence rate in 7 years will be.

Prevalence in 7 years = 20× 7= 140 per 1000 population

 Some common prevalence terms-

1. Sero-prevalence
Seroprevalence is the no. of person in a population who test
positive for a specific disease based on serology(blood serum)
specimens e.g. sero prevalence of dengue
2. Lifetime prevalence:
Lifetime prevalence is the proportion of a population that , at
some point in their life , has experienced a particular health
event , risk factor or disease .
For e.g. In a survey , you might be asked if you have ever smoked
. lifetime prevalence is calculated by comparing the number of
people found to have experienced the health event with the
total no. of people studied.
 Formal demography
Independent variable Dependent variable
Demographic → Demographic
Examples
1. Age composition → Birth rate
2. Birth rate → Age composition
3. Sex composition of in-migrants to a city → Sex ratio of the total population of
the city
 Population studies I
(social demography)
Independent variable Dependent variable
Non-demographic → Demographic
Examples
1. Social class (sociological) → Death rate
2. Attitude about motherhood (social psychology) → Number of children
3. Annual rainfall (geographical) → Population density
4. Economic opportunity (economic) → Migration
 Population studies II
(social demography)
Independent variable Dependent variable
Demographic → Non-demographic
Examples
1. Age composition → Voting behavior (political)
2. Migration → Social change (sociology)
3. Birth rate → Need for infant & child goods/services
(public health)
Demographic transition
Age-sex structure, United States
Population structure by age and sex,
United States, 2010–2050
 Why is demography important?
 Demography helps understand what the past
 says about the future, given expected
 population changes
 – Population change is a prime force behind social
 and technological change, because societies must
 adjust to demographic change
 – Population change is often provocative, bursting
 other dilemmas that face human society
 Population and earth’s
resources
 How will we feed an even larger population than
 we currently have?
 • Will we have enough fresh water?
 • Where will we get energy to sustain our lifestyle?
 • Who will build housing and infrastructure for an
 increasing urban population?
 • How do we minimize the environmental impact?
 Impact of population change
 Less about population growth per se
 • More about population growth in different age
 groups and places over time, affecting
 – Education
 – Health
 – Crime
 – Consumer desires and fashions
 – Economic opportunities