Energy Reports 8 (2022) 6826–6836

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Energy Reports
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/egyr

Review article
The potential role of Egypt as a natural gas supplier: A review
∗
Rehab R. Esily a,b , Yuanying Chi a , , Dalia M. Ibrahiem c , Mustafa A. Amer d,e
a
School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100022, China
b
Faculty of Commerce, Damietta University, Damietta, 22052, Egypt
c
Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Cairo University, Giza, 12613, Egypt
d
Badr Petroleum Company, Cairo, 5958, Egypt
e
School of Engineering, University of Aberdeen King’s College, Aberdeen, AB24 3FX

article info a b s t r a c t

Article history: The energy sector is the most greenhouse gas (GHG) emitting sector which is transitioning away to
Received 10 October 2021 using less carbon-intensive fuels. The highlights the complexity of energy systems as well as the
Received in revised form 9 May 2022 uncertainty surrounding the transition path, as governments must ensure not only environmental
Accepted 10 May 2022
issues but also energy security and affordability. The energy transition away from oil and gas has
Available online xxxx
implications for Egypt, which recently declared intentions to become a liquefied natural gas (LNG)
Keywords: export hub.
Natural gas Under these goals, the analysis of the existing status of global natural gas markets by focusing on
Exports natural gas importer countries in the European and the Asian markets by investigating natural gas
Decarbonization demand in the context of the energy transition. The study investigates the links between economic
Egypt
growth, carbon emissions, and energy intensity to highlight the dependency of the economy on carbon-
intensive energies to enhance the economic growth in Egypt, Europe, and Asia along with global
energy pathways forecast the global and regional demand of natural gas. According to the findings,
Egypt is expected to face difficulties in boosting its export share in the European market while the
most promising destinations for future Egyptian natural gas exports are Asian countries. The study
contextualizes the framework, which suggests the ways to reduce emissions in the gas upstream
sector in Egypt by three actions; reducing flaring and venting operations, improving well integrity
management, and regulating the abandonment of old wells.
© 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND
license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

Contents

1. Introduction..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 6827
2. Overview of Egypt’s natural gas industry ................................................................................................................................................................... 6828
3. Energy and the environment ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 6829
3.1. Greenhouse gas emissions and energy use: ................................................................................................................................................... 6829
3.2. The complexity of energy systems:................................................................................................................................................................. 6829
4. Methodology and analysis............................................................................................................................................................................................. 6830
4.1. Natural gas is a transition fuel: ....................................................................................................................................................................... 6830
4.2. Energy demand long term prospects: ............................................................................................................................................................ 6830
5. Discussion........................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 6831
5.1. Egypt natural gas reserves and exporting: ..................................................................................................................................................... 6831
5.2. Natural gas demand prospects in main markets: ........................................................................................................................................ 6831
5.2.1. European market ............................................................................................................................................................................... 6831
5.2.2. Asian market ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 6832
5.2.3. Carbon-sensitive as an essential issue ........................................................................................................................................... 6834
6. Conclusion and recommendations ............................................................................................................................................................................... 6834
CRediT authorship contribution statement ................................................................................................................................................................. 6835

∗ Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: rehab_ragay@du.edu.eg (R.R. Esily), goodcyy@bjut.edu.cn (Y. Chi), daliaharby@cu.edu.eg, daliaharby@feps.edu.eg (D.M. Ibrahiem),
Muadelm@gmail.com, M.amer.16@aberdeen.ac.uk (M.A. Amer).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2022.05.034
2352-4847/© 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-
nc-nd/4.0/).
R.R. Esily, Y. Chi, D.M. Ibrahiem et al. Energy Reports 8 (2022) 6826–6836

Declaration of competing interest................................................................................................................................................................................ 6835

Acknowledgments .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 6835
References ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 6835
Further reading ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 6836

rate increase of around 2.8% from 1980 to 2003 and about 1.2%
List of abbreviations of total the world’s consumption of primary energy expansion
GHG greenhouse gas prospects for natural gas demand and its incursion into new
LNG liquefied natural gas sectors whether power, industrial and transportation (Aid-Aab,
2005; Sharma et al., 2021). Also, from 15% in 1965 to 24.2% in
GDP gross domestic product
2019, its contribution to the world’s primary energy supply has
FIDs final investment decisions
increased. (BP, 2014).
FDI foreign direct investment Global energy market liberalization, as well as climate change
MENA Middle East and North Africa and other global and local environmental challenges, continued.
CCUS carbon capture, utilization, and storage Short-term environmental improvements have been observed in
EGPC Egyptian General Petroleum Corpora- Norway and the United Kingdom during the liberalization of the
tion electricity supply industry, owing to the substantial replacement
EGAS Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company of coal-fired capacity with natural gas, which may have finally
EGYPS Egyptian Petroleum Show/Exhibition pushed the market toward improved environmental performance
Bcf/d billion cubic feet/ day (Eikeland, 1998). Two big events occurred at the end of 1997
Bcm billion cubic meters that will have an important impact on the gas world in the
long term. The European Union’s publication of the gas directive
BP British Petroleum
project, which covers four major issues for the gas industry
OPEC Oil Producing and Exporting Countries
(gas distribution, market opening, long-term supply contracts,
GECF Gas Exporting Countries Forum
and underground storage), as well as 160 countries signing the
IEA International Energy Association ‘‘Kyoto Protocol’’ in which signatory states have made commit-
WEO World Energy Outlook ments to reduce and limit greenhouse gas emissions (Bayle, 1999;
WOO World Oil Outlook, Benavides, 1998).
GGO Global Gas Outlook From the beginning of the 21st century to the present, carbon
OECD Organization for Economic pricing, LNG trade, carbon footprint and carbon storage tech-
Co-operation and Development nologies gained more attention. Carbon pricing is a win-win
policy for the environment and public health, as well as a vi-
tal step toward emission reduction goals for Canada (Ambasta
and Buonocore, 2018), for Finland (Khastar et al., 2020), for the
MENA region (Ezenagu, 2021), and for Europe (Pollitt et al., 2020).
1. Introduction Many studies resulted in natural gas emitting less CO2 than both
diesel and gasoline, making natural gas engines more environ-
Over the previous decade of the 20th century, carbon-emitting mentally friendly (Hesterberg et al., 2008; Imran et al., 2014;
from global energy demand has increased at its highest rate, Cheenkachorn et al., 2013). Other studies focused on LNG trade
putting the world even further away from the climate change which has contributed to improving integration, reducing tran-
targets on the Paris agreement accelerated transition (plc, 2019). sit country risks connected with pipelines, and providing more
In this regard, natural gas has been promoted, according to nu- flexibility to fulfill seasonal demand (Mumme, 2007; Shi and
merous research as a "transition fuel’’, a means of transitioning Padinjare Variam, 2016; Shabaneh and Schenckery, 2020). Also,
from fossil fuels to renewable energy, implying that a significant several studies investigated the carbon footprint of natural gas
switch to most engines can run on natural gas as a substitute fuel, with results highlighting the low contribution of natural gas to
including retrofitting old engines and modifying new engines carbon dioxide compared to other fossil fuels (Aksyutin et al.,
to use natural gas, is an effective and sensible option (Merri, 2018). China, the world’s most energy-consuming country, has
1991; Ashcroft others, 1990; Beck, 1990; Kutcherov et al., 2017; recognized natural gas as a means to decarbonize, and regulations
Aguilera and Aguilera, 2020). Thus, noticeable attention is given have been designed to encourage natural gas used to minimize
by many scholars to searching the dynamic of natural gas from pollution (Zhang and Paltsev, 2016). in addition, natural gas com-
environmental and economic perspectives. bined with negative carbon capture technologies was proven
The significant increase in oil prices in 1973–1974 emphasized to contribute to a low carbon footprint (BP, 2020; Global CCS
the significance of energy in general and of natural gas in specific Institute, 2014; Birol, 2019).
with relation to a country’s economic development. Since then, During the past 15 years, the global natural gas map has
energy studies have stimulated the interest of scholars especially shifted significantly; the ‘‘silent revolution’’ in shale gas of the
related to natural gas. Many studies have predicted that natu- United States has shifted export–import lines and turned the
ral gas will be the standard mechanism of pollution mitigation country into a net exporter leading to decreased natural gas prices
by Japanese researchers (Tohyama et al., 1970), American re- (Üçok, 2014). Whereas European natural gas is being challenged
searchers (Fieler and Harrison, 1978), and European researchers by the rapid expansion of renewables and green hydrogen tech-
(Leland, 1978). Furthermore, other studies concluded that the nologies (Commission, 2020; Kakoulaki et al., 2021). For the Asian
world has an abundance of natural gas reserves for the time markets, natural gas consumption is due to intensify at a steady
being and for many years to come, and that natural gas will rate over the long-term (IEA, 2021). Moreover, the commission-
continue to perform a substantial role in the global energy sector ing of pipeline networks connecting Russia, China, and Europe,
(Coppack, 1974; Cherskii and Tsarev, 1977; Liesen, 1976). Thus, as well as the rising number of LNG export projects that have
the demand for natural gas has witnessed an average annual been approved, have all contributed to the increased reliance on
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R.R. Esily, Y. Chi, D.M. Ibrahiem et al.
Fig. 1. Roadmap of this paper.
natural gas (Alvera, 2020). However, COVID-19 impacted slowed
down natural gas expansion; resulting in a global lockdown,
reduced investment, global trade disruptions, lower energy and
power consumption, and the postponement of FIDs in the oil and
gas sector, particularly for LNG investments (Birol, 2020).
Under this considerations, Egypt is one of the largest energy
markets in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), with sig-
nificant energy infrastructure, particularly for natural gas (Ouki,
2018). The long-term energy strategy of Egypt is presented in
‘Egypt Vision 2030’. The vision outlined the strategic objectives of
the energy sector, including ensuring energy security, increasing
the energy sector’s contribution to the GDP, maximizing the en-
ergy resource utilization by increasing production and increasing
energy sector reliability, minimizing the energy intensity and in-
creasing energy efficiency, and finally, minimizing environmental
impact by limiting emissions and pollution (El-Megharbel, 2015).
In line with Egypt Vision 2030, the Ministry of Petroleum and
Mineral Resources structured its actions in the ‘Oil and Gas Sector
Modernization Programme’ to transform the energy sector and
increase its contribution to the ambitions of economic progress.
The program revealed plans to transform the country into LNG
export hub. The oil and gas industry in Egypt accounts for 15%
of the country’s GDP and 31% of foreign direct investment (FDI)
(Egypt - Oil and Gas Equipment, 2021). This emphasizes the
importance of the energy sector to the Egyptian economy, as well
as the Egyptian government’s aim to strengthen the sector and
stimulate direct investments (Ouki, 2018; Statistics, 2020).
From the aforementioned, this paper aims to focus on the
increased role of natural gas in consuming countries in Europe
and Asia, to empower exporter countries in general, and Egypt in
particular. In addition, the paper aims at outlining technical and
policy steps presented in the literature that Egypt needs to take
throughout the natural gas supply chain to remain a competitive
natural gas supplier. It is achieved in two steps: first, we examine
the relationship between CO2 emissions and GDP, as well as
energy intensity, to provide understanding quantified insights
on the global trend related to reducing the energy intensity of
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Energy Reports 8 (2022) 6826–6836
matters related to the future of global energy in general, and
Egyptian natural gas in particular. Second, we assess the future
of natural gas future in several energy outlooks produced by
international energy organizations.
In the context of the increased role of natural gas and de-
carbonization of energy systems, this paper will present oppor-
tunities and challenges to Egypt’s aim of reaching the position
of energy hub in the region. furthermore, the paper will extract
from literature policy actions that can asset in decarbonizing the
natural gas supply chain for Egypt to remain competitive supplier
of natural gas in decarbonized energy markets. on the discussion
on Egypt may serve as a significant reference for other emerging
African countries that are aiming to export natural gas in the
future (see Fig. 1).
2. Overview of Egypt’s natural gas industry
Following Nigeria and Algeria, Egypt is the third-largest pro-
ducer of natural gas in Africa (BP, 2021b). Although, over the
second decade of the 21st century, the rapid expansion of local
demand for natural gas was one of the most critical issues the
Egyptian government faced in the management and reconstruc-
tion of the energy industry of Egypt and its long-term sustainable
development (Ayaburi et al., 2021). Despite energy diversification
efforts, renewables (solar and wind) and coal accounted for 6%
and 1% of the country’s overall consumption, respectively. While
fossil fuels, mainly oil and natural gas recording 49.5% and 46.20%
respectively, continue to total supply more than 95 percent of
the country’s primary energy as shown in Fig. 2. The power
generation sector relies mainly on natural gas as it constitutes
60% of the power generation mix (Cozzi et al., 2020).
Natural gas is exported through pipeline networks and as LNG,
the Arab Gas Pipeline is an Egyptian-built natural gas pipeline
that connects Israel, Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon. While LNG
streams in both ways through the Suez Canal, accounting for
a significant portion of world LNG trade. Egypt has two LNG
export facilities; the LNG facility in Damietta is operated by
R.R. Esily, Y. Chi, D.M. Ibrahiem et al.
Fig. 2. Egypt’s Primary Energy Supply.
Source: IEA, 2017.
the Spanish–Egyptian Gas Company which functioned at less
than full capacity until December 2012, when it was shut down
due to rising local energy demands, and later re-exported after
additional discoveries. Another Egyptian LNG project, which is a
joint venture between Shell, Petronas, EGAS, EGPC, and ENGIE, is
located near Idku (US EIA, 2018; Solutions, 2016; Keenan et al.,
2019).
However, in 2015, Egypt turned from a key exporter of natural
gas to an importer country due to the decline in production and
depletion of assets. After that, Egypt’s natural gas governance
concentrated on growing natural gas exploration and produc-
tion activities whereas the government facilitated securing ex-
ploration and production licenses, as well as repaying arrears
owing to the international oil corporations. This enabled Egypt
to uncover new gas fields (the Zohr field, the West Nile Delta
field, the Greater Nooros and Atoll fields), allowing it to become
self-sufficient in natural gas (Ouki, 2018).
After new discoveries, the presence of significant natural gas
reserves in Egypt, as well as the availability of export infrastruc-
ture, makes gas supply expansion feasible. The Oil and Gas Sector
Modernization Project was initiated by the Ministry of Petroleum
and Mineral Resources as part of the ongoing reform initiatives
for several sectors of the Egyptian economy. The sixth strategic
policy measures priority is to promote Egypt as a regional energy
hub by liquefying natural gas and re-exporting it through the
plants of Idku and Damietta (Egyptian and Delta, 2020). Egypt
is aiming to become a natural gas trade hub between North
Africa and Europe. In 2018, the government was able to take
advantage of the rapid development of the massive Zohr field
in the Mediterranean Sea to meet its natural gas needs while
also directing some natural gas to the worldwide market via LNG
exports.
3. Energy and the environment
Because the consequences of GHG emissions are felt world-
wide, they are arguably the most significant environmental im-
pact linked with our energy systems. Thus, environmental risks
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Energy Reports 8 (2022) 6826–6836
the most probable to natural gas and the complexity of energy
systems are discussed.
3.1. Greenhouse gas emissions and energy use:
Energy demand has increased as a result of the growing pop-
ulation and increased industrial activity aimed to support eco-
nomic expansion, resulting in higher carbon emissions from en-
ergy use. Consequently, governments became more concerned
about climate change and air quality. Fossil fuels, especial oil and
coal, are among the top contributors to environmental threats due
to their high GHG emissions (Azarkamand et al., 2020).
Carbon dioxide is not the only greenhouse gas to worry about
when it comes to global warming and climate change. Methane,
nitrous oxide, as well as other gases are among the sources
of pollution. Each of these gases contributes to global warming
differently; one tonne of methane, for example, has a different
global warming potential than one tonne of carbon dioxide (IPCC,
2021). One mass unit of methane has global warming potential
in the atmosphere that is 28 times higher than that of the same
mass of CO2 over 100 years’ period. It is important to note that,
the agriculture sector is the largest source of methane emissions,
followed by the energy sector as reported in united nations Food
and Agricultural Organization data from 2017 (IPCC Panel, 2014).
3.2. The complexity of energy systems:
Producers, manufacturers, suppliers, and end-users all have
and will continue to have competing interests and agendas in
energy systems. Political and institutional frameworks control
physical and social networks that connect information and orga-
nizations. Many aspects of the evolution of the various systems,
as well as their interactions, are uncertain Bale et al. (2015).
Furthermore, various technologies and fuels, including major
coal-to-gas conversion and broad deployment of technologies
for carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) and hydrogen
generation have a role in determining whether energy systems
R.R. Esily, Y. Chi, D.M. Ibrahiem et al.
Fig. 3. CO2 emissions correlation with GDP and Energy intensity represented by the size of the circle.
Source: WB, BP, 2021.
are competitive, secure, long-lasting, and low-carbon. The devel-
opment and improvement of Oil and Gas production, for example,
is a clear example of how technology is assisting the industry in
cutting costs, reducing emissions, monitoring and safely trans-
porting assets and fuel, and increasing the efficiency of internal
combustion engines to be more efficient in energy use or through
the development of hybrid engines (Yu et al., 2021).
4. Methodology and analysis
Our review highlights the challenges and opportunities that
exporting countries in general, and Egypt in particular, face on
global natural gas markets (focusing on natural gas importer
countries in Europe and Asia markets). To achieve our target, the
study has an analytical character and is based on qualitative and
quantitative data sources.
It is conducted in two steps; firstly, we analyze the relation
between CO2 emissions and GDP as well as energy intensity to
enhance the investigation of issues related to the future of global
energy in general and of Egypt’s natural gas industry in particular.
We achieve this by assessing the Pearson Correlation Coefficient
which was utilized in several studies which focused on the rela-
tion between CO2 emissions, GDP, and other economic variables
for Asia countries [91], [93], for European countries [94], [96], for
comparison between developing and developed countries (Shoaib
et al., 2020). In our study, the main quantitative data source is
used to perform statistical analysis between CO2 emissions and
GDP based on the World Bank dataset, while energy intensity is
calculated based on BP primary energy demand Statistical Review
2021 and data are collected from 2010 to 2020. Secondly, the
complementary qualitative data has been acquired by using a
comparison of outlooks from different international organizations
where these organizations forecasted the future of global energy
via prediction models. To compare the future of global energy
which was utilized in several studies such as for Qatar (Dırıöz and
Erbıl, 2021) and for Russia (Mastepanov, 2021)., the views of oil
supporters will be represented by Oil Producing and Exporting
Countries (OPEC), the views of natural gas supporters will be
represented by Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF), and the
views of the International Energy Association (IEA) (Anon, 2020;
Moghaddam, 2021; Cozzi et al., 2020). All three outlooks are
based on the year 2020 as the base year.
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Energy Reports 8 (2022) 6826–6836
4.1. Natural gas is a transition fuel:
we assess the relationship between CO2 emissions and GDP
to see whether energy consumption is delinked from economic
growth around the world and whether economic growth is de-
pending on a certain country’s energy consumption, as well as,
energy intensity is calculated to conclude the amount of energy
used. Thus, countries that link their economic growth on large
amounts of energy with significant emissions and others delink
are identified.
The results of the correlation coefficient and energy intensity
as shown in Fig. 3 may confirm that the several countries man-
aged to reduce emissions while maintaining their GDP growth
through the negative correlation between the GDP and the CO2
emissions represented by Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Fin-
land, France, Germany, Netherlands, Poland, Sweden, Switzerland,
the United Kingdom as European countries recorded (−0.14791,
−0.05497, −0.66308, −0.5756, −0.37665, −0.48588, −0.67056,
−0.4143, −0.74719, −0.71178, −0.67659) respectively and Japan
as an Asia country recorded (−0.62379).
For energy intensity, the countries that link between their eco-
nomic growth on large amounts of energy with significant emis-
sions are Bangladesh as well as China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan,
and Thailand as Asian countries recorded (7.807586, 12.32884,
11.52443, 7.184457, 13.69085, 12.17202) respectively. The delink
between GDP and CO2 emissions is a fundamental indicator of
the reduced reliance on carbon-intensive energy sources. The
majority of the Asian markets with high correlations of their GDP
to CO2 emissions rely heavily on carbon intensive fossil fuels (coal
and oil).
In this context, natural gas provided a way for countries that
wants to reduce their emissions by integrating renewables as
natural gas will provide the base load that can balance the in-
termittency of renewables. In addition, it functions as the fastest
decarbonization pillar for countries that rely on carbon intensive
fossil fuels like coal through coal to gas switching.
4.2. Energy demand long term prospects:
Changes in energy systems require more effort and time be-
fore they become evident. Energy modeling, which helps to im-
plement countries’ ambitious economic growth with expected
population growth, assumptions about government policies, tech-
nology development, and policy implementation to predict the
R.R. Esily, Y. Chi, D.M. Ibrahiem et al.
Fig. 4. Total primary energy consumption globally in Mtoe as predicted in different energy forecasting scenarios by different organizations.
Source: WEO2019, WOO2019, GGO2050.
future of an energy system on a country level or globally, is one
way to understand how energy systems will behave in the future.
Energy outlooks, which are published by several international
organizations, governments, and international companies every
year, can provide analysis and insights on the future of energy
globally by addressing energy supply and demand, as well as
their impact on the environment and countries’ economic de-
velopment. Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
(OPEC) publishes the World Oil Outlook yearly, International En-
ergy Agency (IEA) publishes the World Energy Outlook annually
since 1998, and Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) publishes
the Global Gas Outlook annually since 2017.
The total primary energy consumption is presented as one
of the outputs of the energy outlooks published by IEA, OPEC
and GECF in their publications World Energy Outlook (WEO2019),
World Oil Outlook (WOO2019) and Global Gas Outlook 2050
(GGO2050), respectively. Each outlook represents the view on the
future of energy through different scenarios. The scenarios pre-
sented by the IEA are the current policy scenario (CPS) that shows
where the energy consumption and the emissions of the world
could reach if no policy interference, the stated policy scenario
(SPS) that present the stated energy-related policies announced
by countries and the sustainable development scenario (SDS) that
maps the road to achieve the Paris Agreement goal of limiting
the earth warming to 2 degrees at the end of the century (Adel
Mustafa, 2020). The comparison of the projections on the future
of energy is highlighted in Fig. 4.
The energy transition will have implications on the total pri-
mary energy demand and hence on the volumes of fuels in
making up the energy mix. The uncertainty window is of the
magnitude of 6000 Mtoe with eh main focus is reducing reliance
on fossil fuels, oil and coal in particular.
5. Discussion
The key prospects for Egyptian natural gas export will be
discussed by showing how the countries manage the energy
sector to reduce emissions while maintaining economic growth,
and then insights of the global natural gas industries’ supplies,
and finally carbon-sensitive as an essential issue will be analyzed.
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Energy Reports 8 (2022) 6826–6836
5.1. Egypt natural gas reserves and exporting:
Egypt was ranked 16th in the world in 2017, with 77 trillion
cubic feet (Tcf) of confirmed natural gas reserves, or about 1%
of the world’s total natural gas reserves of 6923 Tcf. Egypt’s
proven reserves cover 37.9% of the country’s annual consumption.
This indicates that it will run out of gas in around 38 years
(based on current usage and omitting reserves that are yet to
be proved) (Worldometers, 2021). Fig. 5 shows the production,
consumption, and LNG exports in Egypt.
In detail, S&P Global Platts Analytics projections that Egyptian
LNG exports grew to 4.8 billion cubic meters (Bcm) in 2019, with
roughly 50 cargoes of LNG shipped to Asian and European mar-
kets. In 2019, the Idku facility exported 50 LNG cargoes, compared
to 20 LNG cargoes in 2018. Asia is part of Egypt’s natural gas
export geography for LNG (India, Pakistan, China, South Korea,
Japan, and Singapore), the second main market in Europe (France,
Italy, Turkey, and Greece) were accounting for 40% and 60% of the
total exports respectively. However, in 2020, natural gas prices
dropped in all markets, including Asia and Europe, prompting
Egypt to stop LNG exports as prices fell below the breakeven point
of EGAS (Hellenic Shipping News, 2019).
5.2. Natural gas demand prospects in main markets:
We analyze the views regarding natural gas demand prospects
from the outcome of different energy scenarios that consider
several decarbonization pathways and different long term drivers.
5.2.1. European market
Europe is a net importer of natural gas, with demand far
exceeding the region’s total proven reserves. The main European
markets for natural gas are power generation and heat gener-
ation, both of which are being challenged by the rapid rise of
renewables.
Uncompetitive energy demand in Europe is one of the causes
influencing diminishing natural gas usage (projected drop in pri-
mary energy consumption in the EU of 13% from 2017 to 2040).
However, Europe’s natural gas imports are rising, with the ratio
anticipated to increase from 75% to 80% by 2025 (BP, 2021a).
The production, consumption, and LNG imports of natural gas in
Europe as shown in Fig. 6.
R.R. Esily, Y. Chi, D.M. Ibrahiem et al.
Fig. 5. Show the production, consumption, and LNG exports in Egypt.
Source: Data source: BP, 2021.
Fig. 6. The production, consumption, and LNG imports in Europe.
Source: Data source: BP, 2021.
In terms of the energy mix, the role of natural gas in Europe
is becoming more uncertain over time. In 2030, it is expected to
account for roughly 25% in four projection scenarios, but the gap
in energy mix percentage extends in 2035 and 2040, as illustrated
in Fig. 7.
In the frame of environmental challenges, the upstream and
downstream activities of the natural gas industry account for
around 56% of the total methane emitted by the oil and gas
industry in 2017, which was estimated to be around 76 Mt of
methane which is a major contributor to global warming (Adel
Mustafa, 2020). By 2050, the European Green Deal Communi-
cation stated that energy-related methane emissions must be
addressed as part of the goal of achieving climate neutrality.
Moreover, legislative steps conducted in the 2030 Climate Target
Plan to reduce methane emissions will help the EU meet its
decarbonization goals as well as its zero-pollution goal for a
toxic-free environment (European Commission, 2020).
Since is domestic gas production in the European Union is
diminishing, the strategy may have a limited impact on reducing
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Energy Reports 8 (2022) 6826–6836
natural gas-related methane emissions, resulting in a greater
reliance on natural gas from other supplying countries, primarily
through LNG, and a growing shift toward verification of emis-
sions from exporting countries. Therefore, in light of the plan of
the European Union for combating methane emissions, several
scenarios for how the European Union will combat methane
emissions from exporting countries will have an influence on
natural gas suppliers such as Egypt.
5.2.2. Asian market
South Korea, China, Japan and India are the top energy con-
sumers in the Asia Pacific. Fig. 8 shows the production, con-
sumption, and LNG imports of natural gas in Asia. Currently,
LNG imports under long-term contracts provide Japan, India, and
South Korea with enough natural gas to meet their needs. China
imports both LNG and natural gas from pipelines about 39.5%.
Due to its large quantities and expected development potential,
China is the most appealing market for natural gas exporters (plc,
2019).
R.R. Esily, Y. Chi, D.M. Ibrahiem et al.
Fig. 7. The future energy mix of natural gas in the European energy market as forecasted by IEA in their three scenarios and BP reference case scenario.
Source: (Data source: BP, IEA, 2020).
Fig. 8. The production, consumption, and LNG imports in Asia.
Source: Data source: BP, 2021.
In the frame of environmental challenges, Asian governments
are prioritizing the development of renewable energy sources.
Renewables, however, will be able to meet only a percentage
of their energy requirements (BP, 2020). According to the 2018
global CCUS report from the Global Carbon Capture and Storage
Institute, the world now has 43 large CCUS projects, 18 of which
are operational. There are eleven in the US, three in Canada, two
in Norway, one in China, and three in other countries (Global CCS
Institute, 2014). Blue hydrogen is a transitional energy carrier that
may utilize existing infrastructure and assets while also being less
expensive than alternative energy sources that is produced from
natural gas equipped with CCUS (Anon, 2019a).
In terms of the energy mix, coal is the biggest single contrib-
utor to the power generation mix of major markets in Asia based
on historical data and as forecasted in the reference case scenario
in the IEEJ Outlook 2020 as illustrated in Fig. 9.
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Energy Reports 8 (2022) 6826–6836
However, scenarios aligned with considering decarburization
of the power generation system see a widely different projection.
Consequently, the gas share in the power generation mix will be
dependent on the extent of the application of gas decarburization
technologies in the demand side, especially CCUS. Natural gas, in
general, is positioned as the way from the region to help to reduce
coal reliance while reducing the cost of the energy transition
toward improved air quality and reduced carbon emissions. Also,
one component of the issue is integrating new technology while
taking into account cost, affordability, supply security, and envi-
ronmental concerns as well as the social influence of the energy
transition on the job market and fossil fuel companies as carbon
costs rise. This makes energy systems complex, highlighting the
efforts and alignments required to achieve a low-carbon energy
transition without causing harm elsewhere in the form of higher
energy prices, job losses, or a loss of energy security (Siciliano
et al., 2021).
R.R. Esily, Y. Chi, D.M. Ibrahiem et al.
Fig. 9. The future energy mix of natural gas in the Asian energy market.
Source: Data source: IEEJ, 2020.
5.2.3. Carbon-sensitive as an essential issue
To achieve the decarbonization targets by 2050, putting pres-
sure on all fossil fuels, including natural gas is proposed in all
energy outlooks. As a result, the whole LNG industry will be
impacted in terms of profitability and market share in carbon-
sensitive countries, particularly Europe. The measurement of green-
house gas emissions from gas value chains is extremely difficult,
which challenges natural gas’s suitability as an environmental
solution for greenhouse gas reductions (Report, 2021).
According to some estimates, natural gas emissions in the LNG
value chain can account for up to 13% of the hydrocarbon gas
produced at the wellhead. From the wellheads to the offloading at
the gasification terminals, LNG parties should cooperate to estab-
lish credibility for greenhouse gas emissions. The only approach
to ensure the credibility of emissions estimates from different
elements of a particular supply chain would be to standardize
and certify them by regular regulatory or recognized certification
agencies. For three stages of the LNG industry, emissions must
be approved. In the LNG exporting country, exploration and pro-
duction, pipeline transportation, and liquefaction will be required
first. Second, certification of emissions when transporting LNG to
the regasification facility. Third, in the LNG-importing countries,
certification of regasification and transit to consumption will be
necessary (Anon, 2019b).
As a result, projects should prepare for the decarbonization
era at the early project stage as policies and regulations. Our
analysis shows Egypt’s LNG shipments will suffer a substantial
obstacle if Europe pursues the option of demanding emissions
verification from exporting countries. So, efforts should be fo-
cused on preserving current natural gas export shares in Asian
markets. Because their markets have a great capacity to meet
expanding NG demand, energy usage, and the phase-out of coal,
Asian nations, particularly China, South Korea, Japan, and India,
are very promising for Egyptian natural gas exports.
6. Conclusion and recommendations
Egypt is projected to become one of the leading exporters of
LNG in the world. However, it faces considerable difficulties in
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Energy Reports 8 (2022) 6826–6836
maintaining and expanding current natural gas export volumes,
while also being exposed to future prospects. With considering
the global risk of climate change and its impact on the energy
transition, this review attempts to provide insight into possible
policy approaches for exporter countries in general, and Egypt in
particular, that may have recently discovered natural gas or are
still in the process of formulating natural gas policy, by studying
challenges and opportunities on natural gas importer countries in
Asia and Europe markets.
The study assessed energy intensity and the relationship be-
tween GDP, CO2 emissions to highlight the dependency of Egypt
as a natural gas exporter and natural gas importer countries
in Asia and Europe markets on energy for economic growth.
Also, the study compared the global energy pathways and the
projections on the global natural gas market from international
energy outlooks and showed the impact of policy choices and
technology available in directing global energy.
Our findings reveal that the scope of the global energy forecast
is relatively broad, emphasizing the uncertainty in the possible
approach. If Europe pursues the option of requiring emissions
verification from exporting countries; Egypt’s LNG shipments will
suffer a significant barrier. Asian markets, on the other hand,
have the huge capacity to tackle the rising demand for natural
gas, usage of energy, and the phase-out of coal. So, Asian nations
are highly promising for Egyptian natural gas exports especially
China, South Korea, Japan, and India. Regardless of the prospect
of severe competition and oversupply in Asian markets, Egypt
should maintain its accessibility to these markets and increase
its natural gas export share.
Many governments have established environmental and de-
carbonization goals for 2050, putting pressure on the oil and
gas industry unless it takes concrete and demonstrable efforts to
reduce emissions. Under McKinsey & Company 2020, showed the
level of decarbonization in energy systems which highlighted two
points optimizing oil and gas operation shows that controlling
intermittent flaring and venting, that is related to oil wells as well
as gas wells, together with improving the integrity of the oil and
gas assets and networks will help to mitigate natural gas supply
R.R. Esily, Y. Chi, D.M. Ibrahiem et al.
chain emissions. Thus, we can suggest many recommendations
for Egypt’s energy sector (McKinsey, 2020):
(1) Reduce flaring and venting in the upstream sector, the oil
and gas industries Egypt’s sector was able to address the
issue of venting and flaring by closely monitoring oil and
gas operating companies, and innovative approaches were
developed to address the problem of intermittent natural
gas wells that suffer from a technical production challenges
that cause operators to increase emissions through venting.
These two considerations, however, are insufficient. So,
through all JV companies, there should be a clear policy
orientation toward managing to flare and addressing the
issue through the EGPC and EGAS.
(2) Controlling and monitoring Management of high integrity:
There is no central oversight from the EGPC to guide on
well integrity management rules in Egypt, and there are no
electronic management systems in JV businesses that can
record well integrity status according to engineering prin-
ciples. Developing a good integrity management system for
Egypt’s JV businesses and allowing the EGPC to control and
record well integrity management and status will result in
fewer events connected to well integrity management and,
as a result, few well integrity-related emissions.
(3) Regulation and research to ensure that oil and gas wells
are properly plugged and abandoned (P&A): The oil and
gas sector is confronted with long-term environmental
management issues that could be deemed post-industrial
(Trudel et al., 2019). Decommissioned oil and gas wells
emit fugitive emissions, which contribute to rising GHG
levels. As a result, establishing the most cost-effective de-
commissioning configuration that accomplishes the long-
term goal of well P&A, which is caprock restoration, is a
critical issue for the industry. The industry has developed
several procedures and technology to ensure the integrity
of a well plugging for P&A. In the next ten years, tens of
thousands of wells will be permanently capped and aban-
doned. So, the Egyptian oil and gas sector must handle this
issue by establishing procedures for plugging and aban-
doning wells through one of the holding companies, such
as the EGPC, to assure safe P&A and avoid the potential
of a catastrophic consequence. It can also be one of the
cornerstones for reducing emissions from the natural gas
upstream sector.
CRediT authorship contribution statement
Rehab R. Esily: Designed research, Collected data, Wrote the
paper, Read and approved the final manuscript. Yuanying Chi:
Designed research, Revised and editing this paper, Read and
approved the final manuscript. Dalia M. Ibrahiem: Designed re-
search, Collected data, Wrote the paper, Revised and editing this
paper, Read and approved the final manuscript. Mustafa A. Amer:
Designed research, Analyzed and visualized the data, Revised and
editing this paper, Read and approved the final manuscript.
Declaration of competing interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing finan-
cial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared
to influence the work reported in this paper.
Acknowledgments
Rehab R. Esily is a recipient of a PhD fellowship from Missions
Sector, Higher Education Ministry, Egypt in association with the
Chinese Scholarship Council (CSC).
6835
Energy Reports 8 (2022) 6826–6836
Funding
The American Energy Foundation: ‘‘Research on Low-Carbon
Consumption Models and Low-Carbon Society Construction in the
Context of Carbon Neutrality’’. G2106-33000, the Humanities and
Social Sciences Planning Fund Project of the Ministry of Edu-
cation, the project number is ‘‘21YJA790009’’; and the National
Social Science Fund, China (No. 19ZDA081).
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