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The Dawn News of 7-Jul-24

Editorial
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Political prerogative
ON the question of national security at least, the PTI is willing to lend an ear to the government.
The party’s decision to participate in a political stakeholders’ conference on Operation Azm-i-
Istehkam, confirmed to the media by the PTI’s incarcerated chief Imran Khan on Friday, has
been welcomed by the PML-N-led government and is being seen as a significant development
with respect to the prospects of the proposed military action.

The PTI has been one of the strongest critics of the operation and has resisted it strongly, along
with other opposition parties. The party and those aligned with it on the matter believe that
another military operation may destabilise the country further by disrupting the economies of
the affected areas and precipitating the kind of social uprooting and upheaval that became part
and parcel of earlier military operations against militants and terrorist forces.

Despite those reservations, Mr Khan has instructed party leaders to hear the government out
and present the PTI’s concerns through the forum of the proposed multiparty conference. “It is
good to hear the PTI founder’s statement […] this is a matter of national importance, and all
political parties should be taken on board,” the information minister said. However, the
government should announce a date for the conference as soon as possible in order to
capitalise on the opportunity. Since the PTI rules KP and represents a large section of the
national electorate, its buy-in is critical for the operation’s success. Encouragingly, some in the
ruling party seem to be taking the PTI’s willingness to participate as an opportunity for
engagement on broader issues as well. The defence minister, while commenting on the matter,
has said the government remains open to engaging with the PTI and that the PML-N president,
too, has kept the doors for negotiations open.

However, the government and opposition’s tentative steps towards political engagement on
Operation Azm-i-Istehkam may face difficulties. The Corps Commanders’ Conference, held on
the same day the multiparty conference was being considered, was followed by a terse public
rebuke to those criticising the operation. The military command reportedly considers the critics
to be engaging in “deliberate misrepresentation of the [military’s] vision, only for furthering their
vested interests”, according to a statement issued by ISPR.

This perspective seems to completely overlook the concerns held by the residents and
representatives of the areas that are most likely to be affected by the proposed operation.

To avoid the social instability that the politicians have voiced their concerns about, it would be
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better if the proposed counterterrorism operation starts only after a political consensus has
been reached. It should be left to parliament to decide how the country must proceed on the
matter.

Published in Dawn, July 7th, 2024

Pezeshkian’s test
THE list of challenges, both domestic and foreign, before Iranian president-elect Masoud
Pezeshkian is a long and difficult one. Described as both a reformist and a centrist, the heart
surgeon and veteran lawmaker clinched the Iranian presidency during Friday’s run-off election
by narrowly beating his conservative rival Saeed Jalili. Mr Pezeshkian was appointed health
minister in the Khatami government, and has served several terms in parliament. But now, as
holder of the country’s second most powerful office after that of the supreme leader, he will be
expected to deliver on the many promises he made to Iranians during the campaign. These
include greater social freedoms, removing crippling US-led sanctions, as well as improving Iran’s
external relations.

Domestically, the Iranian electorate has signalled that the system must change, in line with its
wishes. Therefore, Mr Pezeshkian will have to carefully navigate between the expectations of
his voters and the demands of the clerical establishment. Along with social freedoms, the
greatest domestic challenge before the new Iranian leader will be to improve his country’s
stagnant economy, which has been throttled by years of sanctions imposed primarily by the US.
One critical way of removing sanctions would be to revive the frozen nuclear deal. Mr
Pezeshkian’s reported choice of foreign minister, Javad Zarif, signals that he may be serious in
restarting the JCPOA negotiations. Mr Zarif played a central role in successfully negotiating the
nuclear deal during the Rouhani administration. But we must remain cautious about the
prospects of a rapprochement between Iran and the West, especially if a second Trump
presidency — which is looking increasingly likely — becomes a reality. It was Donald Trump who
tore up the nuclear deal in 2018, and there is little to suggest the Republican contender is
jettisoning his past stance and warming up to Tehran now. Elsewhere, Mr Pezeshkian will need
to guide his country as it confronts an aggressive Israel in the region, while also continuing the
thaw with the Saudis and other Gulf Arabs. Questions also remain about whether the incoming
president will deepen ties with Russia and China, continuing the strategic policy of his
predecessor Ebrahim Raisi. Where relations with Pakistan are concerned, it is hoped Mr
Pezeshkian will continue the policies of the Raisi administration, which sought to significantly
improve trade and people-to-people ties between the neighbouring states.

Published in Dawn, July 7th, 2024

Amending SOE law

IN Pakistan, reforms move slowly, particularly when powerful lobbies are involved. The reform
of state-owned enterprises — agreed with the IMF in 2019 under the $6bn Fund bailout to
improve SOE governance and financial efficiency and to ready these entities for privatisation —

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is a glaring example. A law to improve SOE governance and operations prepared in 2021 was
passed by parliament only last year, and that too under immense pressure from the IMF and
other multinational lenders. However, it remains largely unimplemented due to political and
bureaucratic hurdles. The government recently amended the SOE law in order to accomplish
one of the prior actions it needs to complete before it can clinch a deal with the IMF. The new
amendment empowers the government to appoint and remove directors of federal SOEs
through an institutional mechanism on the recommendation of a board nomination committee.
The idea is to select the best available human resources to efficiently run these entities, and to
remove them if they are found wanting in their performance as board members.

This is in line with good corporate governance practices. Sadly, the opposition took this
opportunity to make the issue subject to controversy and accused the government of ulterior
motives. If the opposition leaders had concerns regarding the amendment or suspected the
government of wrongdoing, it was their best chance to thoroughly debate the law and suggest
meaningful changes to strengthen it rather than attempting to settle political scores. No
legislation is perfect. The job of the opposition is to keep a close watch over the government
and hold it accountable for every misstep or bad legislation. That said, it is the government’s
responsibility to provide parliamentarians with the opportunity to discuss and debate every
piece of legislation rather than rushing them through. Lack of transparency and productive
debate always bog down real reforms at the expense of the economy and the people.

Published in Dawn, July 7th, 2024

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Opinion
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Pressure cooker situation
WITH the social media platform X choked and new disclosures being made in the Islamabad
High Court about the level of Big Brother’s intrusive interest in our everyday lives, conversations
and messages, it is clear that the all-powerful state is becoming increasingly unsure of itself.

Meanwhile, public discontent is only to be expected: the budget has dashed hopes that hitherto
untaxed assets and income, said to run into trillions of rupees, would be brought into the tax net;
instead, a greater burden is being put on small earners, whether salaried or self-employed.

The hybrid set-up, whose legitimacy has a question mark hanging over it, could have won
credibility and widespread support had it gone after the mountains of cash in agriculture and
real estate and slashed subsidies to the well-heeled. Regrettably, it has yet to display courage
and a vision.

The half-hearted budgetary measures, which exempted many wealthy real estate owners — the
ones who make the most of the state’s largesse by selling cheaply acquired land in the ‘open
market’ for many, many times the purchase price — was a sham. Even the tax levied on real
estate transactions is no more than a perfunctory gesture.

Do the various tools at the disposal of the state have the capacity to keep the lid firmly on the
steam that is building up?

The burden of taxes on the already unfairly taxed salaried class and the backbreaking rise in
utility bills, coupled with the increases or extensions in general sales tax, will indirectly squeeze
the life out of those who were already living a hand-to-mouth existence. Little wonder that even
media people generally seen as sympathetic to the current dispensation are now reflecting on
the pain of the masses. In fact, some have taken a hostile stance against the PML-N-led
government and are calling on voters to shun the party. Public anger and despair are palpable. I
have heard many low-income earners groaning under the weight of electricity bills and saying

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that their entire monthly income may not be enough to pay. They have no idea how they will pay
rent and buy food, even basic items, after settling their power bills.

Then there is the continuing unease regarding how an opposition party and its leader are being
treated. They may not have treated their opposition any better when in power but that is
irrelevant in the current context.

I guess social media curbs such as X’s fate are designed to stop the spread of messages of
discontent far and wide and, even more important, to put a spanner in the works of any planned
protest before it gets off the ground.

The disclosure that the authorities have acquired the ability to monitor four million mobile
phone users simultaneously is outrageous but, I suspect, is meant to warn anyone in key
institutions against supporting the leader who seems to have made inroads into hitherto no-go
areas.

Fear of consequences is a strong factor in determining whether, in taking positions, the ‘safety
first’ principle should apply. Therefore, the state telecom authority PTA’s disclosure before
Justice Babar Sattar of the Islamabad High Court is a ‘Big Brother is watching’ message.

But, if the underlying causes of public unhappiness remain unaddressed, particularly those that
are directly impacting people’s pockets and creating a dire financial crisis, are we running the
risk of creating a pressure cooker scenario, with no release valves for the anger and despair,
with these oppressive measures?

And if that is indeed happening, do the various tools at the disposal of the state have the
capacity to keep the lid firmly on the steam that is building up and keep the pressure cooker
from exploding? Those at the helm seem pretty sure they can accomplish this or they wouldn’t
have continued so relentlessly to give more reasons to the people to feel unloved.

I wish you and I could be that sure. In fact, if we are honest, we’d say that the lid can’t be kept in
place for any significant period of time. That is my greatest fear. Unless miraculously — and yes,
as things stand it would take nothing short of a miracle — the economy shows a dramatic
upturn and somehow that translates into tangible relief for the common man, the pressure will
continue to build up.
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With a growing mountain of domestic as well as foreign debt, and with so many institutions
remaining preoccupied with managing the political side of things, the security situation in the
country in general and in the merged districts and other parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in
particular is showing progressive deterioration.

Against this backdrop, the much-sought-after direct foreign investment which, by definition, will
be risk-averse, will also stay away. That, in turn, would dampen the prospects of any economic
miracle at least in the foreseeable future.

Some readers have called me naive, but the only way forward is through a process of grand
reconciliation. Calling for such a move isn’t naive. Expecting it will happen anytime soon is. For,
given all stakeholders’ — and this excludes nobody — narrow institutional and partisan interests
and the egos of the many key characters involved it would be an extraordinary occurrence.

Even then, one does not need to be a soothsayer to say we are heading towards disaster, a
disaster that will leave no one unscathed. Ergo, it would be in the enlightened interest of all
players concerned to stand down from their belligerent, confrontational positions. In the
absence of a clear winner so far, the country seems to be the only one consistently left holding
the short end of the stick.

Principles need to be upheld, no doubt. But the tragic and ugly ground reality also needs to be
acknowledged. That, to me, is the only way to pull back from the abyss. Otherwise, no matter
how keenly Big Brother is watching, the outcome of the present impasse can be scary, a tragedy
beyond words.

The writer is a former editor of Dawn.

Making of a movement
WHEN Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire outside the governor’s office in Sidi Bouzid in the
winter of 2010, nobody knew that his desperate act of protest would not only bring down
president Zine el Abidine Ben Ali’s repressive regime but also spark a wave of change across
the Arab world. History holds several examples of a minor incident triggering a massive change.
Pakistan has also recently experienced similar shocks of lower scale in the Azad Kashmir and
Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) regions, where people’s movements have forced the government to fulfil
their demands related to subsidies and price hikes.
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Pakistan ranks 27th on the Fragile States Index, with poor economic, social, and political
indicators. Its position has gone down by five points in 2024 compared to last year. Cohesion
and social indicators are constantly declining, which means that the trust deficit between state
and society is facing a critical challenge. This phenomenon can be described as an increasing
gulf between power elites and the common man.

The causes behind the Arab Spring, most notably in Tunisia, are usually considered to have been
economic in nature, and included unemployment, underemployment, the rising cost of living,
and corruption. But what triggered Mohamed Bouazizi’s self-immolation was the humiliation he
faced at the hands of police officers, who claimed he was selling fruit without a permit, though
such permits were rarely required. He was also harassed and slapped by a female officer.
Feeling frustrated, humiliated, and powerless, Bouazizi went to the municipal office to complain
but was refused a hearing.

Imagine when police stop a biker on the street or at a check-post and ask for a bribe or issue
the biker a traffic violation ticket, while ignoring the bigger vehicles whizzing past. Such scenes
are familiar in Pakistan. Police do not spare bikers or small car drivers, even if they are travelling
with their families. The common man feels humiliated in every public office related to utilities,
health, and education. The security check-posts and humiliation the locals felt fuelled the
insurgency in Balochistan more than the province’s economic and political grievances.

Political experts predict a significant protest movement nationwide, particularly in urban areas.

Similar humiliations and check-posts gave birth to the Pashtun Tahaffuz Movement in the
merged districts of KP. The GB and Azad Kashmir cases are not very different, as they believe
that if the subsidies were withdrawn, their identity would be threatened. Such humiliations
remain common until some incident sparks anger.

What triggers political and social unrest is a sense of humiliation. In a group, this feeling can
create a powerful collective identity. People start believing that they are being victimised
because of their different identity from the majority group or that the privileged classes are
responsible for their miseries, including the humiliation they face at the hands of state
institutions. They start believing that they are facing humiliation because they belong to a lesser
class. This is the thesis of many political thinkers, including renowned American political
scientist Francis Fukuyama, who elaborated this in his book Identity: The Demand for Dignity
and the Politics of Resentment and argued that identity is deconstructing the political order in
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many parts of the world. Now, identity creates new bonds and divides people into new tribes
based on shared victimhood and common grievances.

Religious conflicts, including sectarianism, are deeply rooted in the identity of different faiths;
political conflicts are mainly about the distribution of resources and power, and social conflicts
are triggered when alienation in a group or groups starts when they are less privileged than
others.

When the government imposes heavy taxes on the salaried class while exempting income tax
on property sales for retired and serving army personnel and bureaucrats, it triggers a similar
sense of humiliation among the non-privileged.

The major failure of state institutions is not their inability to manage economic and political
crises but their neglect of the consequences of their policies. The state institutions were
clueless when the mass protests were gaining momentum in GB and Kashmir just a few
months before. Even the state institutions have not analysed why the TTP targets the police.
Except for a few perceptions, the state has nothing new to offer to explain the phenomenon.

Political experts predict a significant protest movement nationwide, particularly in urban areas.
They assume that opposition parties and a segment of civil society backing the protests have a
history of launching forceful and sometimes violent demonstrations. The situation could
escalate if radical religious parties also join the movement, underscoring the potential for
widespread unrest.

However, major movements for change themselves choose their leadership or evolve a nucleus
of a few people as leaders. Usually, political parties and civil society fail to nurture or lead such
movements. Nobody knew that a counterterrorism department’s encounter in Balochistan
would bring forth Mahrang Baloch and Sammi Deen Baloch as leaders of the movement against
forced disappearances; neither was the name of Maulana Hidayat ur Rehman known outside
Gwadar before he led the Haq Do Tehreek.

The state response is typical, and consists of seeing political and social issues through a
security prism. After surrendering to the public’s demands in Kashmir, the government has
decided to deploy paramilitary forces in the region. This action suggests that while the
government needs to be more serious about fulfilling the people’s demands it is better at
preparing itself to deal with the masses on the streets.
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Social media played a significant role in organising and spreading information about the
protests in Sidi Bouzid. It empowered the public and demonstrated the potential of technology
to shape social and political movements. Many authoritarian regimes have learned that
controlling social media is essential to limiting the impact of such movements.

Highly controlled cyberspaces and strict regimes for the telecom sector in Pakistan reflect the
power elites’ fear of public outrage. Otherwise, the country would have been more focused on
economic, social, and political reforms.

The writer is a security analyst.

Published in Dawn, July 7th, 2024

Chinese investment
SINCE 2015, China has invested billions of dollars in Pakistan. Has that bolstered our economic
development? Opinions vary. Most people feel that Chinese investments, led by CPEC, have
contributed to improving the country’s road, electricity and port infrastructure. A smaller
segment is sceptical, arguing that these investments have contributed to Pakistan’s debt trap. A
dispassionate analysis is needed.

When President Xi Jinping visited Pakistan in April 2015 to launch CPEC, Pakistan was in the
throes of transnational terrorism. Operation Zarb-i-Azb was underway in North Waziristan. In
2016, the US, India and Afghanistan commenced efforts to isolate Pakistan diplomatically.
Natural ly, no country was ready to invest here at that time. Under these circumstances, the
$46 billion worth of promised investments from China were a breath of fresh air.

An early CPEC harvest was the reduction in electricity shortage and load-shedding, which had
made everyday life difficult and had choked industrial production. The other benefit was an
improved road infrastructure. Work was also initiated on Gwadar port and allied projects, many
of which have since been completed.

Under the grand design, once energy shortages had been met and infrastructure developed,
Pakistan was supposed to move to the industrialisation phase, for which work had to start on
establishing special economic zones. However, we failed to seamlessly transit to the second
CPEC phase for two reasons. One, the development of SEZs was inordinately delayed.
Consequently, Chinese industry shifted to other countries in the region. Two, from 2017
onwards, Pakistan entered into another round of political instability. Chinese confidence for
investing in Pakistan was shaken gravely. The investments that were once expected to rise to
$92bn tapered at around $26bn.

We failed to seamlessly transit to the second CPEC phase.

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The present government has decided to upgrade CPEC. During Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s
visit to China last month, the Chinese side agreed to help boost industrialisation in Pakistan,
digitise the economy, and open new corridors for growth, livelihood, innovation, and the green
economy. Decisions were taken to rehabilitate the Karakoram Highway, optimise the port at
Gwadar, and train Pakistani experts in tech and agriculture.

This is a welcome agenda. However, there are big challenges to its implementation. First,
evolving geopolitics, particularly the US-China competition, is making it difficult for Pakistan’s
policymakers to strike a delicate balance in its ties with the US, which is a destination for large
Pakistani exports, and China, whose investments and financial help are important. The US is
doing all it can to check China’s economic rise through trade tariffs, investment curbs, and
export controls, and is advising allies and friends to avoid Chinese investments.

The second challenge is the security of Chinese personnel working on China-assisted projects
in Pakistan. Several attacks have been carried out against them, mostly by TTP and BLA. While
China and Pakistan have decided to “enhance counterterrorism cooperation”, Pakistani
authorities would be well advised to mobilise the support of local people by addressing their
grievances and making them a partner in countering this menace.

In order to sustain China’s economic engagement with Pakistan, a number of steps would need
to be taken. First, Pakistan must find a way to stabilise its politics. A politically unstable country,
with weak institutions, is unlikely to attract foreign, or even local, investment.

Second, there should be a long-term development plan with all major political groups on board
so that continuity of the plan can be ensured across governments.

Third, given that CPEC is now open to third countries, we may explore the possibility of
multinational joint ventures that include Chinese businesses. As is often said, no candle loses
its light while lighting other candles. In a recent roundtable at a Lahore university, one Chinese
expert mentioned that Chinese companies would be ready to work with transnational investors
for projects in Pakistan.

Fourth, Pakistan would need to expedite the SEZs, without which major investment is unlikely to
trickle in.

Fifth, Pakistan needs an early solution to the IPP conundrum. Our treasury is bleeding while
heavy taxes are imposed on the people to make ‘capacity payments’ to IPP owners. Chinese
investors, who had set up IPPs in Pakistan, are also complaining that their repatriation of $1.8bn
is being held up.

Finally, all good ideas will remain on paper unless implemented in earnest. In this regard,
government functionaries and regulators must recognise that facilitating foreign and local firms
to do flourishing business in Pakistan is critical for our economic future.

The write is a former foreign secretary and chairman of Sanober Institute Islamabad.

Published in Dawn, July 7th, 2024

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So lonely together
I CANNOT count the number of times I was made to give up my bedroom for a relative visiting
wherever we were living as expats in the ’70s to ’90s. It was not a choice. In fact, I didn’t even
know I had a choice until I turned 21. It was pretty common for people to turn up unannounced
— aunties and uncles who helped raise us — and we were expected to be there, irrespective of
homework, exams etc. We were scolded if we complained about unexpected guests.

Now, I can’t remember the last time we had an unexpected visitor drop by. I myself have not
dropped in on anyone without calling to check if they are available. I guess we’re all just that
busy now.

Technology has undoubtedly changed our lives and made the world smaller; we can talk to
friends and family anywhere, anytime. You can attend birthdays, weddings, even funerals online.
You can find everything you need online; you may even be safer online. But you are also
cocooned in your own world online and the internet has made us more self-absorbed.

Yet paradoxically there’s a loneliness epidemic all over the world. The UK was the first to
announce a minister for loneliness in 2018, with the aim of reducing feelings of isolation,
anxiety, and suicide ideation. Japan followed in 2021 as it sought to address the social isolation
caused by Covid-19 which also saw the first uptick in suicide in 11 years.

We’re moving away from what made us human in the first place.

Maybe we’re ashamed to say ‘I’m lonely’ because loneliness is seen as taboo, something to feel
embarrassed about. Perhaps because we are seen as a family-oriented society, with a strong
sense of community, it’s hard to say you’re lonely when you’re surrounded by people, even when
you don’t want to be.

As sad as that is, I’m more worried about younger folks who may not even know they are lonely
because they believe their community is online. But as their elders, we know better: it is not the
same as showing up for someone in their time of grief and happiness or just to shoot the
breeze.

“The liminal spaces of our new world are massive — easy for us to be swallowed into — and
disorienting,” writes Athena Dixon in The Loneliness Files, part memoir, part critique on
technology’s impact on our lives.

Loneliness is personal but it’s also the result of technological advancement in communication.
By now, most of us have experienced some form of isolation courtesy the pandemic. In fact,
isolation was mandated; quarantine was essential for one’s survival. Some isolated with
families while others were on their own — both faced issues: either wanting space or craving
company.

Back in the day, artists and writers sought solitude and produced great works of art. Today, if
you have a minute to yourself, you reach for your phone, as if being left alone with your thoughts
is too awful a task to bear. Solitude is necessary for creation but look around you and everyone
is scrolling on their phones, bookmarking places we’ll never travel to or books we’ll never read.
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We are simply ‘liking’ posts, not living lives. We’re moving away from what made us human in
the first place.

Given the current economic crisis, which makes it harder to meet up with friends because we
simply cannot afford to, could we begin to see a loneliness epidemic among youngsters, the
largest demographic in the country and one that is always online?

We won’t even get a minister to care about this. They would probably tax loneliness if they could.
Or happiness. Or breathing, bad air at that too.

Simone Heng, who wrote a book on loneliness, told Al Jazeera English: “Online connection is the
junk food of connection.” How can we find our way back to that time when we showed up for
each other and didn’t have so many boundaries that are isolating us?

Dixon writes about her overwhelming loneliness. “I know there are those who feel the world is
always just a little too far away or a little too close — never comfortable in either situation,” she
writes.

Loneliness is more than a mental health issue; it has serious health consequences. Loneliness
can increase our chances of dementia, heart disease, depression, early death.

The internet is filled with tips on how to manage it — finding hobbies, volunteering, exercise. But
my non-expert, tried and tested tip is to embrace it. To resist Netflix, true crime podcasts, the
news — all these 24/7 connections are geared to keep you distracted from facing up to
something you’re avoiding. I believe a period of solitude helps you reflect on things that matter,
which in my case, was relationships with friends. We meet to talk about how we’re doomed, but
at least we are doomed together.

The writer is an instructor of journalism.

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