India-Russia Relations Since 2021

India-Russia relations have been the one constant in a world that has changed dramatically
since 1947. The bilateral relations have withstood the test of time, and grown from strength to
strength.
Scholar’s Opinion

1. PM Modi, “India-Russia friendship has “remained a constant” despite many fundamental

changes on the world stage and the two countries have cooperated closely while paying
attention to each other’s sensitivities.”
2. PM Modi, “The resilience of India-Russia relationship is based on the fact that it rests on
the principles of equality, trust and mutual benefit.”
3. President Putin, “Russia perceives India as a “great power” with whom relations are
developing and are looking to the future.”
4. FM S. Jaishankar, “At the core of India-Russia relationship is the embrace of multipolarity,
both as a reality and as an aspiration.”
5. Russian ambassador to Indian Denis Alipov: “Profusion of analysis these days of the
outcomes of Xi Jinping’s Russia visit. The impression as though various reputable Indian
experts almost dream of Russia-China ties harming Russia-India strategic alignment. A
wishful thinking case in point!”
6. Rajan Menon, Eugene Rumer: The balance in Russian-Indian relations is shifting decidedly
toward New Delhi. Russia’s break with the West and ever closer ties with China as a result
of the war against Ukraine will make sustaining its partnership with India more challenging.
7. Sumit Ganguly: Understanding India’s stance on the war in Ukraine is complex. In
considerable part, India’s decision to avoid taking a clear-cut position stems from a
dependence on Russia on a host of issues – diplomatic, military and energy-related.
8. Akriti (Vasudeva) Kalyankar and Dante Schulz: India’s relationship with Russia is need-
based and not values-based, and over the past year, Delhi has subtly shifted away from
Russia in both rhetoric and tactics. As India tries to find a middle ground between the West
and Russia, the United States and its partners should create space for Delhi to do so in the
interest of balancing China in the Indo-Pacific.
9. Derek Grossman: India's Maddening, Frustrating Russia Policy Isn't as Bad as Washington
Thinks. India upholds the rules-based, Western-led international order—but in its own
way. India, now courted by all sides, is the clear beneficiary of Russia’s war.

10. Boris Ryvkin : Can India be decoupled from Russia? In short, there will be no near-term,
great decoupling, and Washington especially must engage in delicate, committed
diplomacy.
Even as the US seeks to contain China and regards India as essential to that effort, New
Delhi fears losing Russia as a Eurasian counterweight to Beijing.

Between decades of difficult history, the vagaries of India’s geopolitical position, the
practical constraints of India’s complex energy and arms trading relationships and India’s
own future global leadership ambitions, the US and its western allies have a long and
difficult road ahead.

“The External Dimensions of India-Russia Relations”, Ambassador PS Raghavan

1. In the two decades since India and Russia declared a new strategic partnership, the
global geopolitical landscape has undergone major transformations. While the
partnership retains a strong strategic content, its course has inevitably been impacted
by shifting equations between major global powers.
2. Over these two decades, India-US political and economic relations surged and, after the
India-US nuclear deal of 2008, defence and technology cooperation took off as well.
India welcomed this opportunity to diversify military acquisitions from near-exclusive
dependence on Russia.
3. Russia-US relations were already somewhat strained in the early 2000s, but as long as
they remained functional, India could progress relations with both these countries along
roughly parallel tracks.
4. The US-Russia fallout galvanized Russia-China relations. The settlement of their border
disputes and complementarities in their economies had promoted an intensive
economic engagement. But there was always some caution in the Russia-China
relationship, because of their long history of conflict, border disputes and strategic
rivalry.
5. Nevertheless, Western hostility encouraged Russia-China collaboration in sensitive
sectors. Defence cooperation extends to advanced weapons systems, new technologies
and elaborate military drills. With its fraught relations with China, India is obviously
concerned that the Russia-China quasi-alliance (particularly their technology and
intelligence-sharing) should not impinge on its political or security interests. While
Russia has extended assurances in this regard, it requires constant vigilance, in the light
of the external pressures on Russia.
6. The importance of geography in geopolitics is often underestimated. The Eurasian
landmass to India’s north and west, including Iran and Afghanistan, Central and West
Asia, is our extended neighbourhood, wedged between Russia and China. With the exit
of NATO troops from Afghanistan, this region is seeing fresh competition for presence
and influence. Russia and China have had a tacit understanding that, in Central Asia,
 Russia would play the dominant politico-security role, while China would focus on
economic presence. China, however, seems to be getting more directly involved in
security.
7. Moreover, other regional actors like Pakistan, Iran and Turkey are also taking the
opportunity to expand their influence in this space. India’s security interests and
strategic ambitions dictate that it should have a robust presence in this region. India
cannot leave it to the machinations of others. These perspectives influenced India’s
decision to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which includes Russia,
China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Pakistan, Iran and India, despite
unease about aspects of its structure and political outlook.
8. The India-Russia relationship interacts with these external dynamics. The challenge for
each country is to maximize benefits from this partnership, without prejudicing gains
from other partnerships. The strategic partnership will remain vibrant, as long as the
national interests of one partner do not collide with the core interests of the other.

“The enduring relevance of India-Russia relations”, Nandan Unnikrishnan

1. Today most analysts agree that the India-Russia relationship has developed to a
degree that it can be characterised as “time tested” and has been marked by a high
degree of political and strategic trust.
2. The relationship gained strength based on five pillars: a) similar political and strategic
perceptions of the world; b) intensive military-technical cooperation; c) strong
economic bonds; d) deep ties in science and technology; and e) people-to-people and
cultural links.
3. Russia has recently started viewing South Asia and India in particular, from a tactical
prism. Russia is engaged with the task of making itself an indispensable power in many
parts of the world because it is worried that instead of a polycentric world, a bipolar
one might re-emerge. If, however, it becomes a power without whom some of the
problems afflicting the world cannot be solved, then it believes that it significantly
improves its chances of staying relevant as a great power in whatever new world
architecture emerges. Therefore it makes efforts to fill the vacuum wherever it
perceives indecision on the part of a great power.
4. As long as Russia gets closer to China, the distance between India and Russia will only
grow further, and not because India is moving closer to the US. In fact, the opposite is
true. India is moving towards the US because the only guarantee that it had vis-à-vis
China from 1962 was its ties with Russia. While the Soviet Union was a balancer in the
 relationship at that time, India was not seeking other balancers vis-à-vis China. Today,
Russia and China are in a close relationship, albeit not a complete alliance, and
therefore India has no option but to seek closer ties with the US.
5. Paradoxically, New Delhi will have to enhance its multifaceted relationship with
Moscow if it wants to reduce Russia’s seemingly growing dependence on China. It will
have to significantly energise bilateral exchanges on matters of political and strategic
importance, and equally revive economic ties.
6. This is important because India would like a polycentric world in which it has good
relations with all nations; it needs to live in harmony to be able to deal with its pressing
domestic problems. India, like Russia, would not want a bipolar understanding
emerging between China and the US because that would reduce the space for strategic
maneuverability for both India and Russia. Therefore, reinventing relations is an
important task for both countries. They must find ways to rejuvenate the confluence of
political and strategic interests if the relationship must break out of its current
shackles.

“India-Russia relations in a post-Covid world”, Nandan Unnikrishnan

1. As the US-China rivalry threatens to disrupt the world order, India and Russia remain
supporters of a multi-polar world order, understanding the constraints that bipolarity
would impose on their foreign policy choices. They emphasize independence in pursuit
of foreign policy and eschew alliances. However, this does not mean that the two sides
are in complete agreement about the world order, which remains in flux with neither
an unambiguous bipolarity nor a clear multi-polarity in sight. This results in more fluid
relationships as the stakeholders hedge their bets and seek to define their positions
while trying to preserve national interests.
2. This period of flux is exactly the time for the two sides to bank on their ‘special and
privileged strategic partnership’ to pursue a multi-vector foreign policy. The critical
take away from the relationship for both countries is the “strategic space” they provide
to each other to deal with the US, China as well as other powers.
3. Neither India-China ties nor US-Russia ties are expected to improve in the short term.
Also, the US and China will remain key partners for New Delhi and Moscow
respectively. It might thus be prudent to intensify “free and frank” discussions on all
issues as well as resolve to maintain neutrality on issues of core concern for each
other while taking steps to strengthen the bilateral relationship.
 4. This should ensure that at a time of uncertainty in a changing world, India’s and
Russia’s engagement with other powers does not come at the expense of their
bilateral partnership; while giving the two sides space to strengthen their political,
economic, defence and cultural ties in the coming years.

“India-Russia relationship among the ‘steadiest’ of major global relations”, S Jaishankar

1. Jaishankar referred to “understandable concern” about the “trade imbalance” in the

economic engagement between India and Russia, noting that it needs to be addressed
on an urgent basis. Addressing the imbalance means addressing the impediments,
whether they are market access, non-tariff barriers, issues related to payments or
logistics.
2. Trade ties between India and Russia are on an upswing notwithstanding the increasing
disquiet from Western powers over India’s continuing economic engagement with
Russia even after its invasion of Ukraine.

Context
Russia’s Deputy PM has attended the 24th Russia-India Inter-Governmental Commission (IGC)
meeting in India. Russia has expressed its interest in importing manufacturing equipment,
including machinery, from India to replace those of Western origin.

Meeting’s Highlights

1. Both countries reviewed the defense cooperation between India and Russia, which has
been facing challenges related to deliveries and payments due to the ongoing war in
Ukraine.
2. The two countries discussed the plans that India has for Russia’s far eastern region,
which is an essential part of Russia’s strategy in the Indo-Pacific region.
3. They held discussions on bilateral trade efforts and the identification of new industrial
points that would provide additional impetus for trade between the two countries.
Balance of trade currently tilts in favor of Russia, and hence, the two sides
discussed ways to bring more balance in trade relations.
4. Both sides also discussed a wide range of issues related to bilateral trade, economic,
and humanitarian cooperation.
Present Status of India-Russia Trade
1. India’s total bilateral trade with Russia stood at ~USD 13 Billion in 2021-22 and USD 8.14
Billion in 2020-21.
2. Russia is India’s seventh biggest trading partner, up from 25th position in 2021. The US,
China, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Indonesia were the six countries that recorded
higher volumes of trade with India during the first five months of 2022-23.
Concerns Related to Bilateral Trade
Trade Imbalance
1. India’s imports from Russia accounted for USD 17.23 Billion, while India’s exports to
Moscow were only worth USD 992.73 million, resulting in a negative trade balance of
USD 16.24 Billion in 2020-21.
2. Russia’s share in India’s total trade has increased to 3.54%, up from 1.27% in 2021-22.
Factors Causing Trade Imbalance
1. The sudden jump in imports from Russia, mainly oil and fertilizers, which began to
surge earlier in 2022, is the main driver behind this increase in bilateral trade.
2. Petroleum oil and other fuel items accounted for 84% of India’s total imports from
Russia followed by fertilizers. Together, these accounted for over 91% of the total
imports from Russia this year.
Way Forward to Address Trade Imbalance Between Russia and India
1. Indian Export to Russia: Indian exports to Russia should be increased, particularly in
the machinery sector, where India has advanced production capabilities.
2. Rupee-Ruble Mechanism: One of the challenges facing the trade relationship is
payments, logistics, and certifications. Both sides are in talks to resort to the “Rupee-
Ruble mechanism” to safeguard bilateral trade from the impact of western sanctions.
3. New Industrial Points: These can give additional impetus for trade, and to negotiate
a Free Trade Agreement (FTA).
4. A multi-pronged approach that focuses on diversification, promotion of exports,
negotiation of better trade deals, expansion of economic cooperation, and addressing
structural issues can help address the trade imbalance between India and Russia.
Areas of Cooperation Between India and Russia
1. Political Relations
a. The Annual Summit meeting between the PM of India and the President of the
Russian Federation is the highest institutionalised dialogue mechanism in the
strategic partnership between India and Russia.
 b. PM Narendra Modi and President Vladimir Putin held their first informal Summit in
the city of Sochi in the Russian Federation in 2018. At the Sochi Summit, the
relationship was elevated to a “Special and Privileged Partnership.”
c. In 2019, President Putin signed the Executive Order on awarding PM Narendra
Modi Russia’s highest state decoration – The order of St Andrew the Apostle. The
order was presented to PM for his distinguished contribution to the development of
a privileged strategic partnership between Russia and India and friendly ties
between the Russian and Indian peoples
d. Two Inter-Governmental Commissions – one on Trade, Economic, Scientific,
Technological and Cultural Cooperation (IRIGC-TEC), and another on Military-
Technical Cooperation (IRIGC- MTC), meet annually.
2. Defence and Security Cooperation
a. Russia is a major supplier of defense items to Indian armed forces and both nations
are in joint research, development and production of advanced defence items.
b. According to the latest SIPRI’s International Arms Transfers 2022 report, Russia
continues to be India’s largest arms supplier.
c. In October 2018, India had signed a USD 5 billion deal with Russia to buy five units
of the S-400 air defence missile systems.
d. Both countries regularly conduct the Tri-Services exercise ‘INDRA’.
e. The joint military programmes between India and Russia include: BrahMos Cruise
Missile Programme, 5th Generation Fighter Jet Programme, Sukhoi Su-30MKI
Programme, Ilyushin/HAL Tactical Transport Aircraft, KA-226T twin engine utility
helicopters and some frigates.
f. Russia also plays a very important role in assisting the Indian Navy with its
submarine programmes:
i. Indian Navy’s first submarine, “Foxtrot Class” came from Russia.
ii. India is dependent on Russia for its nuclear submarine programme.
iii. INS Vikramaditya, the sole aircraft carrier operated by India, is also
Russian in origin.
iv. Nine of the fourteen conventional submarines operated by India are
Russian.
3. Trade and Economic Cooperation
a. Bilateral trade between India and Russia touched $25 billion (2022) on account of
increased purchase of discounted oil from Russia.
b. Bilateral investments between the two countries reached US$30 billion in 2018.

4. Multilateral Cooperation
a. Russia supports India’s bid for a permanent seat in the UN Security Council (UNSC)
and membership of Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG).
 b. Also, both nations have an active engagement at Multilateral Organizations such
as BRICS, SCO etc. and connectivity projects such as INSTC (International North-
South Transport Corridor) etc.
c. It helps to act decisively against international terrorism and cooperate on matters
such as drug trafficking, issues in Afghanistan and so on.
5. Nuclear Energy
a. Russia is an important partner for India in the area of peaceful use of nuclear
energy. It recognizes India as a country with advanced nuclear technology with an
impeccable non-proliferation record.
b. Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant (KKNPP) is being built in India.
c. Both India and Russia are implementing Rooppur Nuclear Power Project in
Bangladesh.
6. Space Cooperation
a. Russia has supported India’s space programme since its early days.
b. The Soviet Union launched India’s 1st unmanned satellite “Aryabhata” in 1975.
c. Today, Russia is supporting India’s 1st manned space mission “Gaganyaan”.
d. Both sides cooperate in the peaceful uses of outer space, including satellite
launches, GLONASS Navigation System, remote sensing and other societal
applications of outer space.
e. A MoU between ISRO and ROSCOSMOS on Joint Activities in the field of Human
Space Flight Programme have been signed during the 19th Bilateral Summit.
7. Science and Technology
a. India-Russia relationship extends to the field of basic sciences as well including
Russian-Indian Network (RIN) of Universities, Arctic and Antarctic research etc.

8. Cultural Relations
a. About 20 Russian Institutions, including leading universities and schools, regularly
teach Hindi to about 1500 Russian students.
b. Apart from Hindi, languages such as Tamil, Marathi, Gujarati, Bengali, Urdu,
Sanskrit and Pali are taught in Russian Institutions.
c. Indian dance, music, yoga and Ayurveda are among few other interests that people
of Russia enjoy.
d. Programmes like ‘Namaste Russia’and sharing educational brilliance of both
countries through institutes like Jawaharlal Nehru Cultural Centre.
e. Exhibition dedicated to Mahatma Gandhi: On October 2, the State Duma of the
Russian Federation inaugurated an exhibition commemorating the 150th
anniversary of Mahatma Gandhi and his connection with Russian writer Leo Tolstoy.
 “India-Russia Relations: Bridging the Geopolitical Gap”, Nandan Unnikrishnan
1. World powers, particularly those engaging with India in the Indo-Pacific, must know that
a multi-polar Euro-Asian supercontinent is not possible without Russia.
2. Preventing the emergence of a hegemon in Eurasia without Russia, given its size and
resources, is well-nigh impossible.
3. Russia, for its part, has, since 2014, faced deteriorating ties with the US-led West
following the Ukraine crisis, exacerbated now by the Western reaction to the poisoning
and post-recovery jailing of anti-government political activist Alexey Navalny.
4. Russia responded to these efforts to isolate it, by revving up its own “Pivot to the East”,
the most distinct results of which are markedly improved relations with China, and
better ties with Turkey (despite a brief hiccup), Iran and Pakistan.
5. Russia, also, has officially been cold towards the concept of the Indo-Pacific, seeing it as
a design to contain China.
6. These trends combined with bilateral economic ties well below their potential, and
possible differences developing over the “new friends” of the two countries, would
suggest that India-Russia relations are likely to face some turbulence ahead as
suggested by C. Raja Mohan.
7. India should pursue and facilitate Russia’s engagement in the Indo-Pacific. Russia may
not use the term Indo-Pacific for some more time, but its active engagement,
irrespective of motive, in the region would speak louder than any words and contribute
to making the Indo-Pacific “free and inclusive”.

“Russia deeply cherishes equal and respectful relations with India”, Russian Ambassador,
Denis Alipov
Context of Statement
In 2022, India and Russia celebrated the 75th anniversary of their diplomatic relations
amid Russia-Ukraine war.
Geopolitical Significance of Russia for India
Balancing China
The Chinese aggression in the border areas of eastern Ladakh, brought India-China relations to
an inflection point, but also demonstrated that Russia can contribute to defusing tensions with
China. Russia organized a trilateral meeting among the foreign ministers of Russia, India, and
China following deadly clashes in the Galwan Valley in the disputed territory of Ladakh.

“India’s quest for security and its neutrality in the Russia–Ukraine War”, Raj Verma
India is reluctant to publicly condemn Russia for invading Ukraine because it believes Russia can
play an important role in enhancing India’s security. India is hugely dependent on Russian arms
and Moscow is willing to provide advanced military equipment, transfer technology, and
partake in co-production and co-development of weapon systems. Moreover, in India’s
strategic calculus, non-condemnation of Russia will strengthen India–Russia bilateral ties and
reduce India’s insecurity by preventing Moscow from establishing stronger relations with China
and Pakistan, which are threats to India’s national security and territorial integrity and
sovereignty.

Russia-Ukraine War

Started on 24th February, after Russia started to invade Ukraine; Russian troops
captured many cities of Ukraine including Mariupol, Kherson, Kharkiv, Sumy etc.

Potential Reasons for Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

Ukraine’s desire to establish strong economic, political and security relations with
Western countries due to continuing threat from Russia (Crimea annexation). Thus,
Ukraine sought to join the Association Agreement (AA) with the European Union (EU)
and also NATO. Russia considers NATO’S expansion as a major threat in its
neighbourhood.

Cause of Conflict

1. Shared History: Ukraine and Russia have had cultural, linguistic, and familial ties
for hundreds of years. Ukraine was the second-most powerful Soviet republic
after Russia as part of the Soviet Union, and it was crucial strategically,
economically, and culturally.
2. Emotional Exploitation of People: For many Russians and ethnic Russians in
Ukraine, the countries’ shared heritage is an emotional issue that has been
exploited for electoral and military purposes.
3. Balance of Power: Since Ukraine’s independence from the Soviet Union, both
Russia and the West have sought greater influence in the country in order to
maintain the regional balance of power in their favour.
 4. Acts as a buffer: For the US and the EU, Ukraine is a crucial buffer between
Russia and the West. As tensions with Russia rise, the US and the EU are
becoming more determined to keep Ukraine out of Russian hands.
5. Ukraine Desire to Join NATO: Ukraine wants to join the AA with the EU and also
NATO that is against Russian interests.

India’s Stand

1. Strategic Autonomy: India followed strategic autonomy without being aligned

with Western countries even under pressure.
2. Abstention from Voting: India refused to vote a resolution targeting Russia and
instead provided humanitarian aid to Ukraine. India was also among the first to
announce the reopening of its embassy in Kyiv.

Analyzing India’s Stand

1. India’s abstention reflected its national interest given its long strategic
relationship with Russia.
2. Balance between principles as well as pragmatic considerations of India’s
foreign policy objectives.
3. Mediator’s Role: Further, by abstaining India has kept the space for dialogue
and diplomacy open without taking sides. It can pave the way for India playing
a key role in getting all parties to the negotiating table given its traditional
relationship with Russia and cordial ties with the West, particularly the US.
4. Contradictory to Leading Power’s Aspiration: Many experts argue to become
a leading power India will have to take a clear position on a conflict that
threatens international peace and security. Although despite the abstention,
India highlighted its belief in UN Charter and International Law reflected in its
reference to respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of states.

Implications for India

1. Economic: As per various risk assessment reports further escalation of the Russia-
Ukraine crisis could expose about 42% of rated Indian companies to significant risks due
to high commodity prices and supply chain disruptions. They are primarily in the oil and
gas and automotive industries.
2. Cyber Security: Cyber aggression by Russia spilling outside Ukraine is the newest worry
of cyber security czars in countries including India.
3. Geopolitical:
a. International pressure on India is building up.
b. China can take advantage of the void created by Russia to deepen its presence in
Central Asia. In addition, China can increase arms sales to the Russian arms
consumer nations since sanctions have been applied on Russia.
c. Challenge in striking the balance amid the West vs. Russia. However, so far, India
has managed this quite well.