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 Preface

“Please, sir, I’d like some more.”

— Oliver Twist

This book introduces students to statistical modeling beyond what they learn in an introductory
course. We assume that students have successfully completed a Stat 101 college course or an AP
Statistics course. Building on basic concepts and methods learned in that course, we empower
students to analyze richer datasets that include more variables and address a broader range of
research questions.

Guiding Principles
Principles that have guided the development of this book include:
• Modeling as a unifying theme. Students will analyze many types of data structures with a
wide variety of purposes throughout this course. These purposes include making predictions,
understanding relationships, and assessing differences. The data structures include various
numbers of variables and different kinds of variables in both explanatory and response roles.
The unifying theme that connects all of these data structures and analysis purposes is statisti-
cal modeling. The idea of constructing statistical models is introduced at the very beginning,
in a setting that students encountered in their Stat 101 course. This modeling focus continues
throughout the course as students encounter new and increasingly more complicated scenarios.

Basic principles of statistical modeling that apply in all settings, such as the importance
of checking model conditions by analyzing residuals with graphical and numerical, are em-
phasized throughout. Although it’s not feasible in this course to prepare students for all
possible contingencies that they might encounter when fitting models, we want students to
recognize when a model has substantial faults. Throughout the book, we offer two general
approaches for analyzing data when model conditions are not satisfied: data transformations
and computer-intensive methods such as bootstrapping and randomization tests.

Students will go beyond their Stat 101 experience by learning to develop and apply mod-
els with both quantitative and categorical response variables, with both quantitative and
categorical explanatory variables, and with multiple explanatory variables.

vii
viii PREFACE

• Modeling as an interactive process. Students will discover that the practice of statisti-
cal modeling involves applying an interactive process. We employ a four-step process in all
statistical modeling: Choose a form for the model, fit the model to the data, assess how well
the model describes the data, and use the model to address the question of interest.

As students gain more and more facility with the interplay between data and models, they
will find that this modeling process is not as linear as it might appear. They will learn how to
apply their developing judgment about statistical modeling. This development of judgment,
and the growing realization that statistical modeling is as much an art as a science, are more
ways in which this second course is likely to differ from students’ Stat 101 experiences.

• Modeling of real, rich datasets. Students will encounter real and rich datasets through-
out this course. Analyzing and drawing conclusions from real data are crucial for preparing
students to use statistical modeling in their professional lives. Using real data to address gen-
uine research questions also helps to motivate students to study statistics. The richness stems
not only from interesting contexts in a variety of disciplines, but also from the multivariable
nature of most datasets.

This multivariable dimension is an important aspect of how this course builds on what stu-
dents learned in Stat 101 and prepares them to analyze data that they will see in our modern
world that is so permeated with data.
Prerequisites
We assume that students using this book have successfully completed an introductory statistics
course (Stat 101), including statistical inference for comparing two proportions and for comparing
two means. No further mathematical prerequisites are needed to learn the material in this book.
Some material on data transformations and logistic regression assumes that students are able to
understand and work with exponential and logarithmic functions.

Overlap with Stat 101

We recognize that Stat 101 courses differ with regard to coverage of topics, so we expect that stu-
dents come to this course with different backgrounds and levels of experience. We also realize that
having studied material in Stat 101 does not ensure that students have mastered or can readily
use those ideas in a second course. To help all students make a smooth transition to this course,
we recommend introducing the idea of statistical modeling while presenting some material that
students are likely to have studied in their first course. Chapter 0 reminds students of basic statis-
tical terminology and also uses the familiar two-sample t-test as a way to illustrate the approach
of specifying, estimating, and testing a statistical model. Chapters 1 and 2 lead students through
specification, fit, assessment, and inference for simple linear models with a single quantitative pre-
dictor. Some topics in these chapters (for example, inference for the slope of a regression line)
may be familiar to students from their first course, but most likely not in the more formal setting
of a linear model that we present here. A thorough introduction of the formal linear model and
related ideas in the “simple” one-predictor setting makes it easier to move to datasets with multiple
PREFACE ix

predictors in Chapter 3. For a class of students with strong backgrounds, an instructor may choose
to move more quickly through the first chapters, treating that material mostly as review to help
students get “up to speed.”

Organization of Chapters
After completing this course, students should be able to work with statistical models where the
response variable is either quantitative or categorical and where explanatory/predictor variables
are quantitative or categorical (or with both kinds of predictors). Chapters are grouped to consider
models based on the type of response and type of predictors.

Chapter 0: Introduction. We remind students about basic statistical terminology and present
our four-step process for constructing statistical models in the context of a two-sample t-test.

Unit A (Chapters 1–4): Linear regression models. These four chapters develop and exam-
ine statistical models for a quantitative response variable, first with one quantitative predictor and
then with multiple predictors of both quantitative and categorical types.

Unit B (Chapters 5–8): Analysis of variance models. These four chapters also consider
models for a quantitative response variable, but specifically with categorical explanatory vari-
ables/factors. We start with a single factor (one-way ANOVA) and then move to models that
consider multiple factors. We follow this with an overview of experimental design issues.

Unit C (Chapters 9–11): Logistic regression models. These three chapters introduce models
for a binary response variable with either quantitative or categorical predictors.

These three units follow a similar structure:

• Each unit begins by considering the “simple” case with a single predictor/factor (Chapters
1–2 for Unit A, 5 for Unit B, 9 for Unit C). This helps students become familiar with the basic
ideas for that type of model (linear regression, analysis of variance, or logistic regression) in
a relatively straightforward setting where graphical visualizations are most feasible.

• The next chapter of the unit (Chapters 3, 6, 10) extends these ideas to models with multiple
predictors/factors.

• Each unit then presents a chapter of additional topics that extend ideas discussed earlier
(Chapters 4, 7, 11). For example, Section 1.5 gives a brief and informal introduction to
outliers and influential points in linear regression models. Topic 4.3 covers these ideas in
more depth, introducing more formal methods to measure leverage and influence and to
detect outliers. The topics in these chapters are relatively independent and so allow for
considerable flexibility in choosing among the additional topics.

• Unit B also has a chapter providing an overview of experimental design issues (Chapter 8).
x PREFACE

Flexibility within and between Units

The units and chapters are arranged to promote flexibility regarding order and depth in which
topics are covered. Within a unit, some instructors may choose to “splice” in an additional topic
when related ideas are first introduced. For example, Section 5.4 in the first ANOVA chapter
introduces techniques for conducting pairwise comparisons with one-way ANOVA using Fisher’s
LSD method. Instructors who prefer a more thorough discussion of pairwise comparison issues
at this point, including alternate techniques such as the Bonferroni adjustment or Tukey’s HSD
method, can proceed to present those ideas from Section 7.2. Other instructors might want to move
immediately to two-way ANOVA in Chapter 6 and then study pairwise procedures later.
Instructors can also adjust the order of topics between the units. For example, some might prefer
to consider logistic regression models (Unit C) before studying ANOVA models (Unit B). Others
might choose to study all three types of models in the “simple setting” (Chapters 1–2, 5, 9), and
then return to consider each type of model with multiple predictors. One could also move to the
ANOVA material in Unit B directly after starting with a “review” of the two-sample t-test for
means in Unit 0, then proceed to the material on regression.
Technology
Modern statistical software is essential for doing statistical modeling. We assume that students
will use statistical software for fitting and assessing the statistical models presented in this book.
We include output from both Minitab and R throughout the book, but we do not include specific
software commands or instructions. Our goal is to allow students to focus on understanding sta-
tistical concepts, developing facility with statistical modeling, and interpreting statistical output
while reading the text. Toward these ends, we want to avoid the distractions that often arise when
discussing or implementing specific software instructions. This choice allows instructors to use
other statistical software packages (e.g., SAS, SPSS, DataDesk, JMP, etc.).

Exercises
Developing skills of statistical modeling requires considerable practice working with real data.
Homework exercises are an important component of this book. Exercises appear at the end of each
chapter, except for the “Additional Topics” chapters that have exercises after each independent
topic. These exercises are grouped into four categories:
• Conceptual exercises. These questions are brief and require minimal (if any) calculations.
They give students practice with applying basic terminology and assess students’ understand-
ing of concepts introduced in the chapter.
• Guided exercises. These exercises ask students to perform various stages of a modeling
analysis process by providing specific prompts for the individual steps.
• Open-ended exercises. These exercises ask for more complete analyses and reporting of
conclusions, without much or any step-by-step direction.
• Supplemental exercises. Topics for these exercises go somewhat beyond the scope of the
material covered in the chapter.
PREFACE xi

To the Student
In your introductory statistics course you saw many facets of statistics but you probably did little
if any work with the formal concept of a statistical model. To us, modeling is a very important
part of statistics. In this book, we develop statistical models, building on ideas you encountered in
your introductory course. We start by reviewing some topics from Stat 101 but adding the lens of
modeling as a way to view ideas. Then we expand our view as we develop more complicated models.
You will find a thread running through the book:
• Choose a type of model.

• Fit the model to data.

• Assess the fit and make any needed changes.

• Use the fitted model to understand the data and the population from which they came.

We hope that the Choose, Fit, Assess, Use quartet helps you develop a systematic approach to
analyzing data.
Modern statistical modeling involves quite a bit of computing. Fortunately, good software exists
that enables flexible model fitting and easy comparisons of competing models. We hope that by
the end of your Stat2 course, you will be comfortable using software to fit models that allow for
deep understanding of complex problems.

Stat2 Book Companion Web site at www.whfreeman.com/stat2 provides a range of resources.

Available for instructors only:
- Instructor’s Manual
- Instructor’s Solutions Manual
- Sample Tests and Quizzes
- Lecture PowerPoint Slides
Available for students:
- Datasets (in Excel, Minitab, R, .csv, and .txt formats)
Each new copy of Stat2 is packaged with an access code students can use to access premium re-
sources via the Book Companion Web site. These resources include:
- Student Solutions Manual
- R Companion Manual
- Minitab Companion Manual

Acknowledgments
We are grateful for the assistance of a great number of people in writing Stat2.
First, we thank all the reviewers and classroom testers listed at the end of this section. This group
of people gave us valuable advice, without which we would have not progressed far from early drafts
of our book.
xii PREFACE

We thank the students in our Stat2 classes who took handouts of rough drafts of chapters and gave
back the insight, suggestions, and kind of encouragement that only students can truly provide.

We thank our publishing team at W. H. Freeman, especially Roland Cheyney, Katrina Wilhelm,
Kirsten Watrud, Lisa Kinne, Liam Ferguson, and Ruth Baruth. It has been a pleasure working
with such a competent organization.

We thank the students, faculty colleagues, and other researchers who have generously provided
their data for use in this project. Rich interesting data are the lifeblood of statistics and critical to
helping students learn and appreciate how to effectively model real-world situations.

We thank Emily Moore of Grinnell College, for giving us our push into the uses of LaTex typesetting.

We thank our families for their patience and support. The list would be very long if eight authors
listed all family members who deserve our thanks. But we owe them a lot and will continue to let
them know this.

Finally, we thank all our wonderful colleagues in the Statistics in the Liberal Arts Workshop
(SLAW). For 25 years, this group has met and supported one another through a variety of projects
and life experiences. Of the 11 current attendees of our annual meetings, 8 of us became the au-
thor team, but the others shared their ideas, criticism, and encouragement. These individuals are
Rosemary Roberts of Bowdoin College, Katherine Halvorsen of Smith College, and Joy Jordan of
Lawrence University.

We also thank four retired SLAW participants who were active with the group when the idea for a
Statistics 2 textbook went from a wish to a plan. These are the late Pete Hayslett of Colby College,
Gudmund Iversen of Swarthmore College, Don Bentley of Pomona College, and David Moore of
Purdue University. Pete taught us about balance in one’s life, and so a large author team allowed us
to make the project more fun and more social. Gudmund taught us early about the place of statis-
tics within the liberal arts, and we sincerely hope that our modeling approach will allow students to
see our discipline as a general problem-solving tool worthy of the liberal arts. Don taught us about
sticking to our guns and remaining proud of our roots in many disciplines, and we hope that our
commitment to a wide variety of applications, well represented by many datasets, will do justice to
his teaching. All of us in SLAW have been honored by David Moore’s enthusiastic participation in
our group until his retirement, and his leadership in the world of statistics education and writing
great textbooks will continue to inspire us for many years to come. His work and his teaching give
us a standard to aspire to.

Ann Cannon George Cobb Brad Hartlaub Julie Legler

Cornell College Mount Holyoke College Kenyon College St. Olaf College

Robin Lock Tom Moore Allan Rossman Jeff Witmer

St. Lawrence University Grinnell College Cal Poly San Luis Obispo Oberlin College
PREFACE xiii

Reviewers
Carmen O. Acuna Bucknell University
David C. Airey Vanderbilt School of Medicine
Jim Albert Bowling Green State University
Robert H. Carver Stonehill College
William F. Christensen Brigham Young University
Julie M. Clark Hollins University
Phyllis Curtiss Grand Valley State University
Lise DeShea University of Oklahoma Health Sciences Center
Christine Franklin University of Georgia
Susan K. Herring Sonoma State University
Martin Jones College of Charleston
David W. Letcher The College of New Jersey
Ananda Manage Sam Houston State University
John D. McKenzie, Jr. Babson College
Judith W. Mills Southern Connecticut State University
Alan Olinsky Bryant University
Richard Rockwell Pacific Union College
Laura Schultz Rowan University
Peter Shenkin John Jay College of Criminal Justice
Daren Starnes The Lawrenceville School
Debra K. Stiver University of Nevada, Reno
Linda Strauss Pennsylvania State University
Dr. Rocky Von Eye Dakota Wesleyan University
Jay K. Wood Memorial University
Jingjing Wu University of Calgary
Class Testers
Sarah Abramowitz Drew University
Ming An Vassar College
Christopher Barat Stevenson College
Nancy Boynton SUNY, Fredonia
Jessica Chapman St. Lawrence University
Michael Costello Bethesda-Chevy Chase High School
Michelle Everson University of Minnesota
Katherine Halvorsen Smith College
Joy Jordan Lawrence University
Jack Morse University of Georgia
Eric Nordmoe Kalamazoo College
Ivan Ramler St. Lawrence University
David Ruth U.S. Naval Academy
Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence University
Jen-Ting Wang SUNY, Oneonta
 To David S. Moore,
with enduring affection, admiration, and thanks:

Thank you, David, for all that your leadership has done for our profession,
and thank you also for all that your friendship, support, and guidance
have done for each of us personally.
 CHAPTER 0

What Is a Statistical Model?

The unifying theme of this book is the use of models in statistical data analysis. Statistical models
are useful for answering all kinds of questions. For example:
• Can we use the number of miles that a used car has been driven to predict the price that is
being asked for the car? How much less can we expect to pay for each additional 1000 miles
that the car has been driven? Would it be better to base our price predictions on the age of
the car in years, rather than its mileage? Is it helpful to consider both age and mileage, or do
we learn roughly as much about price by considering only one of these? Would the impact of
mileage on the predicted price be different for a Honda as opposed to a Porsche?
• Do babies begin to walk at an earlier age if they engage in a regimen of special exercises? Or
does any kind of exercise suffice? Or does exercise have no connection to when a baby begins
to walk?
• If we find a footprint and a handprint at the scene of a crime, are they helpful for predicting
the height of the person who left them? How about for predicting whether the person is male
or female?
• Can we distinguish among different species of hawks based solely on the lengths of their tails?
• Do students with a higher grade point average really have a better chance of being accepted
to medical school? How much better? How well can we predict whether or not an applicant
is accepted based on his or her GPA? Is there a difference between male and female students’
chances for admission? If so, does one sex retain its advantage even after GPA is accounted
for?
• Can a handheld device that sends a magnetic pulse into the head reduce pain for migraine
sufferers?
• When people serve ice cream to themselves, do they take more if they are using a bigger
bowl? What if they are using a bigger spoon?
• Which is more strongly related to the average score for professional golfers: driving distance,
driving accuracy, putting performance, or iron play? Are all of these useful for predicting a

1
2 CHAPTER 0. WHAT IS A STATISTICAL MODEL?

golfer’s average score? Which are most useful? How much of the variability in golfers’ scores
can be explained by knowing all of these other values?

These questions reveal several purposes of statistical modeling:

a. Making predictions. Examples include predicting the price of a car based on its age,
mileage, and model; predicting the length of a hawk’s tail based on its species; predicting the
probability of acceptance to medical school based on grade point average.

b. Understanding relationships. For example, after taking mileage into account, how is the
age of a car related to its price? How does the relationship between foot length and height
differ between men and women? How are the various measures of a golfer’s performance
related to each other and to the golfer’s scoring average?

c. Assessing differences. For example, is the difference in ages of first walking different enough
between an exercise group and a control group to conclude that exercise really does affect age
of first walking? Is the rate of headache relief for migraine sufferers who experience a magnetic
pulse sufficiently higher than those in the control group to advocate for the magnetic pulse
as an effective treatment?

As with all models, statistical models are simplifications of reality. George Box, a renowned statis-
tician, famously said that “all statistical models are wrong, but some are useful.” Statistical models
are not deterministic, meaning that their predictions are not expected to be perfectly accurate. For
example, we do not expect to predict the exact price of a used car based on its mileage. Even if
we were to record every imaginable characteristic of the car and include them all in the model, we
would still not be able to predict its price exactly. And we certainly do not expect to predict the
exact moment that a baby first walks based on the kind of exercise he or she engaged in. Statistical
models merely aim to explain as much of the variability as possible in whatever phenomenon is
being modeled. In fact, because human beings are notoriously variable and unpredictable, social
scientists who develop statistical models are often delighted if the model explains even a small part
of the variability.

A distinguishing feature of statistical models is that we pay close attention to possible simplifica-
tions and imperfections, seeking to quantify how much the model explains and how much it does
not. So, while we do not expect our model’s predictions to be exactly correct, we are able to state
how confident we are that our predictions fall within a certain range of the truth. And while we
do not expect to determine the exact relationship between two variables, we can quantify how far
off our model is likely to be. And while we do not expect to assess exactly how much two groups
may differ, we can draw conclusions about how likely they are to differ and by what magnitude.
0.1. FUNDAMENTAL TERMINOLOGY 3

More formally, a statistical model can be written as

DAT A = M ODEL + ERROR

or as

Y = f (X) + ϵ
The Y here represents the variable being modeled, X is the variable used to do the modeling,
and f is a function.1 We start in Chapter 1 with just one quantitative, explanatory variable X
and with a linear function f . Then we will consider more complicated functions for f , often by
transforming Y or X or both. Later, we will consider multiple explanatory variables, which can be
either quantitative or categorical. In these initial models we assume that the response variable Y
is quantitative. Eventually, we will allow the response variable Y to be categorical.

The ϵ term in the model above is called the “error,” meaning the part of the response variable Y
that remains unexplained after considering the predictor X. Our models will sometimes stipulate
a probability distribution for this ϵ term, often a normal distribution. An important aspect of our
modeling process will be checking whether the stipulated probability distribution for the error term
seems reasonable, based on the data, and making appropriate adjustments to the model if it does
not.

0.1 Fundamental Terminology

Before you begin to study statistical modeling, you will find it very helpful to review and practice
applying some fundamental terminology.

The observational units in a study are the people, objects, or cases on which data are recorded.
The variables are the characteristics that are measured or recorded about each observational unit.

Example 0.1: Car prices

In the study about predicting the price of a used car, the observational units are the cars. The
variables are the car’s price, mileage, age (in years), and manufacturer (Porsche or Honda).
⋄

Example 0.2: Walking babies

In the study about babies walking, the observational units are the babies. The variables are whether
or not the baby was put on an exercise regimen and the age at which the baby first walked.
⋄
1
The term “model” is used to refer to the entire equation or just the structural part that we have denoted by
f (X).
4 CHAPTER 0. WHAT IS A STATISTICAL MODEL?

Figure 0.1: Health facilities in U.S. metropolitan areas

Example 0.3: Metropolitan health care

You may find it helpful to envision the data in a spreadsheet format. The row labels are cities, which
are observational units, and the columns correspond to the variables. For example, Figure 0.1 shows
part of a Minitab worksheet with data compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau on health-care facilities
in metropolitan areas. The observational units are the metropolitan areas and the variables count
the number of doctors, hospitals, and beds in each city as well as rates (number of doctors or beds
per 100,000 residents). The full dataset for 83 metropolitan areas is in the file MetroHealth83.
⋄
Variables can be classified into two types: quantitative and categorical. A quantitative variable
records numbers about the observational units. It must be sensible to perform ordinary arithmetic
operations on these numbers, so zip codes and jersey numbers are not quantitative variables. A
categorical variable records a category designation about the observational units. If there are
only two possible categories, the variable is also said to be binary.

Example 0.1 (continued): The price, mileage, and age of a car are all quantitative variables.
The model of the car is a categorical variable.
⋄
Example 0.2 (continued): Whether or not a baby was assigned to a special exercise regimen is
a categorical variable. The age at which the baby first walked is a quantitative variable.
⋄

Example 0.4: Medical school admission

Whether or not an applicant is accepted for medical school is a binary variable, as is the gender of
the applicant. The applicant’s undergraduate grade point average is a quantitative variable.
⋄
0.1. FUNDAMENTAL TERMINOLOGY 5

Another important consideration is the role played by each variable in the study. The variable that
measures the outcome of interest is called the response variable. The variables whose relationship
to the response is being studied are called explanatory variables. (When the primary goal of the
model is to make predictions, the explanatory variables are also called predictor variables.)

Example 0.1 (continued): The price of the car is the response variable. The mileage, age, and
model of the car are all explanatory variables. ⋄
Example 0.2 (continued): The age at which the baby first walked is the response variable.
Whether or not a baby was assigned to a special exercise regimen is an explanatory variable. ⋄
Example 0.4 (continued): Whether or not an applicant is accepted for medical school is the
response variable. The applicant’s undergraduate grade point average and sex are explanatory
variables. ⋄
One reason that these classifications are important is that the choice of the appropriate analy-
sis procedure depends on the type of variables in the study and their roles. Regression analysis
(covered in Chapters 1–4) is appropriate when the response variable is quantitative and the ex-
planatory variables are also quantitative. In Chapter 3, you will also learn how to incorporate
binary explanatory variables into a regression analysis. Analysis of variance (ANOVA, considered
in Chapters 5–8) is appropriate when the response variable is quantitative, but the explanatory
variables are categorical. When the response variable is categorical, logistic regression (considered
in Chapters 9–11) can be used with either quantitative or categorical explanatory variables. These
various scenarios are displayed in Table 0.1.

Keep in mind that variables are not always clear-cut to measure or even classify. For example,
measuring headache relief is not a straightforward proposition and could be done with a quantita-
tive measurement (intensity of pain on a 0–10 scale), a categorical scale (much relief, some relief,
no relief), or as a binary categorical variable (relief or not).

We collect data and fit models in order to understand populations, such as all students who are

Response Predictor/explanatory Procedure Chapter

Quantitative Single quantitative Simple linear regression 1, 2
Quantitative Single categorical One-way analysis of variance 5
Categorical Single quantitative Simple logistic regression 9
Categorical Single binary 2 × 2 table 11
Quantitative Multiple quantitative Multiple linear regression 3, 4
Quantitative Multiple categorical Multiway analysis of variance 6, 7
Categorical Multiple quantitative Multiple logistic regression 10, 11
Categorical Multiple categories 2 × k table 11

Table 0.1: Classifying general types of models

6 CHAPTER 0. WHAT IS A STATISTICAL MODEL?

applying to medical school, and parameters, such as the acceptance rate of all students with a
grade point average of 3.5. The collected data are a sample and a characteristic of a sample, such
as the percentage of students with grade point averages of 3.5 who were admitted to medical school,
out of those who applied, is a statistic. Thus, sample statistics are used to estimate population
parameters.

Another crucial distinction is whether a research study is a controlled experiment or an observa-

tional study. In a controlled experiment, the researcher manipulates the explanatory variable
by assigning the explanatory group or value to the observational units. (These observational units
may be called experimental units or subjects in an experiment.) In an observational study,
the researchers do not assign the explanatory variable but rather passively observe and record its
information. This distinction is important because the type of study determines the scope of con-
clusion that can be drawn. Controlled experiments allow for drawing cause-and-effect conclusions.
Observational studies, on the other hand, only allow for concluding that variables are associated.
Ideally, an observational study will anticipate alternative explanations for an association and in-
clude the additional relevant variables in the model. These additional explanatory variables are
then called covariates.

Example 0.5: Handwriting and SAT essay scores

An article about handwriting appeared in the October 11, 2006, issue of The Washington Post. The
article mentioned that among students who took the essay portion of the SAT exam in 2005–2006,
those who wrote in cursive style scored significantly higher on the essay, on average, than students
who used printed block letters. This is an example of an observational study since there was no
controlled assignment of the type of writing for each essay. While it shows an association between
handwriting and essay scores, we can’t tell whether better writers tend to choose to write in cursive
or if graders tend to score cursive essays more generously and printed ones more harshly. We might
also suspect that students with higher GPAs are more likely to use cursive writing. To examine
this carefully, we could fit a model with GPA as a covariate.

The article also mentioned a different study in which the identical essay was shown to many graders,
but some graders were shown a cursive version of the essay and the other graders were shown a
version with printed block letters. Again, the average score assigned to the essay with the cursive
style was significantly higher than the average score assigned to the essay with the printed block
letters. This second study involved an experiment since the binary explanatory factor of interest
(cursive versus block letters) was controlled by the researchers. In that case, we can infer that
using cursive writing produces better essay scores, on average, than printing block letters.
⋄
0.2. FOUR-STEP PROCESS 7

0.2 Four-Step Process

We will employ a four-step process for statistical modeling throughout this book. These steps are:
• Choose a form for the model. This involves identifying the response and explanatory vari-
able(s) and their types. We usually examine graphical displays to help suggest a model that
might summarize relationships between these variables.
• Fit that model to the data. This usually entails estimating model parameters based on the
sample data. We will almost always use statistical software to do the necessary number-
crunching to fit models to data.
• Assess how well the model describes the data. One component of this involves comparing
the model to other models. Are there elements of the model that are not very helpful in
explaining the relationships or do we need to consider a more complicated model? Another
component of the assessment step concerns analyzing residuals, which are deviations between
the actual data and the model’s predictions, to assess how well the model fits the data. This
process of assessing model adequacy is as much art as science.
• Use the model to address the question that motivated collecting the data in the first place.
This might be to make predictions, or explain relationships, or assess differences, bearing in
mind possible limitations on the scope of inferences that can be made. For example, if the
data were collected as a random sample from a population, then inference can be extended to
that population; if treatments were assigned at random to subjects, then a cause-and-effect
relationship can be inferred; but if the data arose in other ways, then we have little statistical
basis for drawing such conclusions.
The specific details for how to carry out these steps will differ depending on the type of analysis
being performed and, to some extent, on the context of the data being analyzed. But these four
steps are carried out in some form in all statistical modeling endeavors. To illustrate the process,
we consider an example in the familiar setting of a two-sample t-procedure.

Example 0.6: Financial incentives for weight loss

Losing weight is an important goal for many individuals. An article2 in the Journal of the American
Medical Association describes a study in which researchers investigated whether financial incentives
would help people lose weight more successfully. Some participants in the study were randomly
assigned to a treatment group that offered financial incentives for achieving weight loss goals, while
others were assigned to a control group that did not use financial incentives. All participants were
monitored over a four-month period and the net weight change (Bef ore − Af ter in pounds) was
recorded for each individual. Note that a positive value corresponds to a weight loss and a nega-
tive change is a weight gain. The data are given in Table 0.2 and stored in WeightLossIncentive4.

2
K. Volpp, L. John, A.B. Troxel, L. Norton, J. Fassbender, and G. Lowenstein (2008), “Financial Incentive-based
Approaches for Weight Loss: A Randomized Trial”, JAMA, 300(22): 2631–2637.
8 CHAPTER 0. WHAT IS A STATISTICAL MODEL?

Control 12.5 12.0 1.0 −5.0 3.0 −5.0 7.5 −2.5 20.0 −1.0
2.0 4.5 −2.0 −17.0 19.0 −2.0 12.0 10.5 5.0
Incentive 25.5 24.0 8.0 15.5 21.0 4.5 30.0 7.5 10.0 18.0
5.0 −0.5 27.0 6.0 25.5 21.0 18.5

Table 0.2: Weight loss after four months (pounds)

The response variable in this situation (weight change) is quantitative and the explanatory factor
of interest (control versus incentive) is categorical and binary. The subjects were assigned to the
groups at random so this is a statistical experiment. Thus, we may investigate whether there is a
statistically significant difference in the distribution of weight changes due to the use of a financial
incentive.

CHOOSE

When choosing a model, we generally consider the question of interest and types of variables
involved, then look at graphical displays, and compute summary statistics for the data. Since the
weight loss incentive study has a binary explanatory factor and quantitative response, we examine
dotplots of the weight losses for each of the two groups (Figure 0.2) and find the sample mean and
standard deviation for each group.

Figure 0.2: Weight loss for Control versus Incentive groups

Variable Group N Mean StDev

WeightLoss Control 19 3.92 9.11
Incentive 17 15.68 9.41

The dotplots show a pair of reasonably symmetric distributions with roughly the same variability,
although the mean weight loss for the incentive group is larger than the mean for the control
group. One model for these data would be for the weight losses to come from a pair of normal
distributions, with different means (and perhaps different standard deviations) for the two groups.
Let the parameter µ1 denote the mean weight loss after four months without a financial incentive,
and let µ2 be the mean with the incentive. If σ1 and σ2 are the respective standard deviations
and we let the variable Y denote the weight losses, we can summarize the model as Y ∼ N (µi , σi ),
0.2. FOUR-STEP PROCESS 9

where the subscript indicates the group membership3 and the symbol ∼ signifies that the variable
has a particular distribution. To see this in the DAT A = M ODEL + ERROR format, this model
could also be written as

Y = µi + ϵ
where µi is the population mean for the ith group and ϵ ∼ N (0, σi ) is the random error term. Since
we only have two groups, this model says that

Y = µ1 + ϵ ∼ N (µ1 , σ1 ) for individuals in the control group

Y = µ2 + ϵ ∼ N (µ2 , σ2 ) for individuals in the incentive group

FIT
To fit this model, we need to estimate four parameters (the means and standard deviations for
each of the two groups) using the data from the experiment. The observed means and standard
deviations from the two samples provide obvious estimates. We let y 1 = 3.92 estimate the mean
weight loss for the control group and y 2 = 15.68 estimate the mean for a population getting the
incentive. Similarly, s1 = 9.11 and s2 = 9.41 estimate the respective standard deviations. The
fitted model (a prediction for the typical weight loss in either group) can then be expressed as 4

ŷ = y i

that is, that ŷ = 3.92 pounds for individuals without the incentive and ŷ = 15.68 pounds for those
with the incentive.

Note that the error term does not appear in the fitted model since, when predicting a particular
weight loss, we don’t know whether the random error will be positive or negative. That does not
mean that we expect there to be no error, just that the best guess for the average weight loss under
either condition is the sample group mean, y i .

ASSESS
Our model indicates that departures from the mean in each group (the random errors) should
follow a normal distribution with mean zero. To check this, we examine the sample residuals or
deviations between what is predicted by the model and the actual data weight losses:

residual = observed − predicted = y − ŷ

For subjects in the control group, we subtract ŷ = 3.92 from each weight loss and we subtract
ŷ = 15.68 for the incentive group. Dotplots of the residuals for each group are shown in Figure 0.3.
3
For this example, an assumption that the variances are equal, σ12 = σ22 , might be reasonable, but that would lead
to the less familiar pooled variance version of the t-test. We explore this situation in more detail in a later chapter.
4
We use the caratˆsymbol above a variable name to indicate predicted value, and refer to this as y-hat.
10 CHAPTER 0. WHAT IS A STATISTICAL MODEL?

Figure 0.3: Residuals from group weight loss means

Note that the distributions of the residuals are the same as the original data, except that both
are shifted to have a mean of zero. We don’t see any significant departures from normality in the
dotplots, but it’s difficult to judge normality from dotplots with so few points. Normal probability
plots (as shown in Figure 0.4) are a more informative technique for assessing normality. Departures
from a linear trend in such plots indicate a lack of normality in the data. Normal probability plots
will be examined in more detail in the next chapter.

(a) Control (b) Incentive

Figure 0.4: Normality probability plots for residuals of weight loss

As a second component of assessment, we consider whether an alternate (simpler) model might fit

the data essentially as well as our model with different means for each group. This is analogous to
testing the standard hypotheses for a two sample t-test:

H0 : µ1 = µ2
Ha : µ1 ̸= µ2

The null hypothesis (H0 ) corresponds to the simpler model Y = µ+ϵ, which uses the same mean for
both the control and incentive groups. The alternative (Ha ) reflects the model we have considered
here that allows each group to have a different mean. Would the simpler (common mean) model
suffice for the weight loss data or do the two separate groups means provide a significantly better
explanation for the data? One way to judge this is with the usual two-sample t-test (as shown in
the computer output below).
Another random document with
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from firing at these people, who had done us no harm. This was
certainly a mere outbreak of fanaticism. When the people in the
boats saw my servant’s excited behaviour, they left the shore,
though numerous enough to overpower us; and we then rode on to
another creek called Méllelá, whence we turned westwards and in
about an hour, partly through water, partly over a grassy plain,
reached Maduwári.
Maduwári, at that time, was an empty sound for me—a name
without a meaning, just like the names of so many other places at
which I had touched on my wanderings; but it was a name about to
become important in the history of the expedition, to which many a
serious remembrance was to be attached. Maduwári was to contain
another white man’s grave, and thus to rank with Ngurútuwa.
When I first entered the place from the side of the lake, it made a
very agreeable impression upon me, as it showed evident signs of
ease and comfort, and, instead of being closely packed together, as
most of the towns and villages of the Kanúri are, it lay dispersed in
eleven or twelve separate clusters of huts, shaded by a rich
profusion of kórna and bíto-trees. I was conducted by my
companion, Kashélla Kótoko, to the house of Fúgo ʿAli. It was the
house wherein Mr. Overweg, a year and a half later, was to expire;
while Fúgo ʿAli himself, the man who first contracted friendship with
me, then conducted my companion on his interesting navigation
round the islands of the lake, and who frequented our house, was
destined to fall a sacrifice in the revolution of 1854. How different
was my reception then, when I first went to his house on this my first
excursion to the lake, and when I revisited it with Mr. Vogel in the
beginning of 1855, when Fúgo ʿAli’s widow was sobbing at my side,
lamenting the ravages of time, the death of my companion, and that
of her own husband!
The village pleased me so much that I took a long walk through it
before I sat down to rest; and after being treated most sumptuously
with fowls and a roasted sheep, I passed the evening very agreeably
in conversation with my black friends. The inhabitants of all these
villages are Kánembú,[48] belonging to the tribe of the Sugúrti, who
in former times were settled in Kánem, till by the wholesale
devastation of that country they were compelled to leave their homes
and seek a retreat in these regions. Here they have adopted the
general dress of the Kanúri; and only very few of them may at
present be seen exhibiting their original native costume, the greatest
ornament of which is the headdress, while the body itself, with the
exception of a tight leathern apron, or “fúno,” is left naked. This is a
remarkable peculiarity of costume, which seems to prevail among
almost all barbarous tribes. The original headdress of the Sugúrti,
that is to say, of the head men of the tribe, consists of four different
articles: first, the “jóka,” or cap, rather stiff, and widening at the top,
where the second article, the “ariyábu” (aliyáfu), is tied round it; from
the midst of the folds of the ariyábu, just over the front of the head,
the “múllefu” stands forth, a piece of red cloth, stiffened, as it seems,
by a piece of leather from behind; and all round the crown of the
head a bristling crown of reeds rises with barbaric majesty to a
height of about eight inches. Round his neck he wears a tight string
of white beads or “kulúlu,” and hanging down upon the breast,
several small leather pockets, containing written charms or láya,
while his right arm is ornamented with three rings, one on the upper
arm, called “wíwi or bíbi,” one made of ivory, and called “chíla,”
above the elbow, and another, called “kúllo,” just above the wrist.
The shields of the Sugurti, at least most of them, are broad at the top
as well as at the base, and besides his large spear or kasákka, he is
always armed with three or four javelins, “bállem.” But besides the
Sugúrti there happened to be just then present in the village some
Búdduma, handsome, slender, and intelligent people, their whole
attire consisting in a leathern apron and a string of white beads
round the neck, which, together with their white teeth, produces a
beautiful contrast with the jet-black skin. They gave me the first
account of the islands of the lake, stating that the open water, which
in their language is called “Kalilémma,” or rather Kálu kemé, begins
one day’s voyage from Káya, the small harbour of Maduwári,
stretching in the direction of Sháwi, and that the water is thenceforth
from one to two fathoms deep. I invariably understood from all the
people with whom I spoke about this interesting lake, that the open
water, with its islands of elevated sandy downs, stretches from the
mouth of the Sháry towards the western shore, and that all the rest
of the lake consists of swampy meadow-lands, occasionally
inundated. Indeed Tsád, or Tsáde, is nothing else but another form
for Sháry, Shárí, or sárí. I shall have occasion to speak again about
this point when briefly reporting my unfortunate companion’s voyage
on the lake.[49]
Having closed my day’s labour usefully and pleasantly, I lay down
under a sort of shed, but had much to suffer from mosquitoes, which,
together with fleas, are a great nuisance near the banks of the
lagoon.
Sunday, April 27.—Before sunrise we were again in the saddle,
accompanied by Fúgo or Púfo ʿAli, who had his double pair of small
drums with him, and looked well on his stately horse. It was a
beautiful morning, and I was delighted with the scene around. Clear
and unbroken were the lines of the horizon, the swampy plain
extending on our right towards the lake, and blending with it, so as to
allow the mind that delights in wandering over distant regions a
boundless expanse to rove in—an enjoyment not to be found in
mountainous regions, be the mountains ever so distant. For

“’Tis distance lends enchantment to the view.”

Thus we went on slowly northwards, while the sun rose over the
patches of water, which spread over the grassy plain; and on our left
the village displayed its snug yards and huts, neatly fenced and
shaded by spreading trees. We now left Maduwári, and after a little
while passed another village called Dógoji, when we came to a large
hamlet or “berí” of Kánembú cattle-breeders, who had the care of
almost all the cattle of the villages along the shores of the lake,
which is very credibly reported to amount together to eleven
thousand head. The herd here collected—numbering at least a
thousand head, most of them of that peculiar kind, called kúri,
mentioned before—was placed in the midst, while the men were
encamped all around, armed with long spears and light shields; at
equal distances long poles were fixed in the ground, on which the
butter was hung up in skins or in “kórió,” vessels made of grass.
Here we had some delay, as Fúgo ʿAli, who was the inspector of all
these villages, had to make inquiries respecting three head of cattle
belonging to the vizier, which had been stolen during the night. On
our left the considerable village of Bínder, which is at least as large
as Maduwári, exhibited an interesting picture; and I had leisure to
make a sketch.
Having here indulged in a copious draught of fresh milk, we
resumed our march, turning to the eastward; and having passed
through deep water we reached the creek “Kógorám,” surrounded by
a dense belt of tall rushes of various kinds. We were just about to
leave this gulf, when we were joined by Zíntelma, another Kánemma
chief, who ever afterwards remained attached to me and Mr.
Overweg, with five horsemen. Our troop having thus increased, we
went on cheerfully to another creek called Tábirám, whence we
galloped towards Bolé, trying in vain to overtake a troop of kelára
(the antelope before mentioned), which rushed headlong into the
water and disappeared in the jungle. Before, however, we could get
to this latter place, we had to pass very deep water, which covered
my saddle, though I was mounted on a tall horse, and swamped
altogether my poor Bú-Sʿad on his pony; nothing but his head and
his gun were to be seen for a time. But it was worth while to reach
the spot which we thus attained at the widest creek of the lake as yet
seen by me,—a fine open sheet of water, the surface of which,
agitated by a light east wind, threw its waves upon the shore. All
around was one forest of reeds of every description, while the water
itself was covered with water-plants, chiefly the water-lily or
Nymphæa lotus. Numberless flocks of waterfowl of every description
played about. The creek has an angular form; and its recess, which
makes a deep indentation from E. 30 N. to W. 30 S., is named
Nghélle.
Having made our way through the water and rushes, and at length
got again on firm ground, we made a momentary halt to consider
what next to do. Háj Beshír had taught me to hope that it would be
possible to reach on horseback the island Sóyurum, which extends a
long way into the lake, and whence I might have an extensive view
over the Kálu kemé and many of the islands; but my companions
were unanimously of opinion that the depth of the water to be
crossed for many miles exceeded the height of my horse; and
although I was quite ready to expose myself to more wetting, in order
to see a greater portion of this most interesting feature of Central
Africa, I nevertheless did not think it worth while to ride a whole day
through deep water, particularly as in so doing I should not be able to
keep my chronometer and my compass dry; for these were now the
most precious things which I had on earth, and could not be replaced
and repaired so easily as gun and pistols. But moreover my horse,
which had never been accustomed to fatigue, and had not been well
fed, had become quite lame, and seemed scarcely able to carry me
back to Kúkawa. I therefore gave up the idea of visiting the island,
which in some years, when the lake does not rise to a great height,
may be reached with little inconvenience,[50] and followed my
companions towards the large village of Káwa.
Passing over fields planted with cotton and beans, but without
native corn, which is not raised here at all, we reached Káwa after an
hour’s ride, while we passed on our left a small swamp. Káwa is a
large straggling village, which seems to enjoy some political pre-
eminence above the other places hereabouts, and on this account is
placed in a somewhat hostile position to the independent inhabitants
of the islands, with which the Kánembú in general keep up a sort of
peaceful intercourse. What to me seemed the most interesting
objects were the splendid trees adorning the place. The sycamore
under which our party was desired to rest in the house of Fúgo ʿAli’s
sister was most magnificent, and afforded the most agreeable
resting-place possible, the space overshadowed by the crown of the
tree being enclosed with a separate fence, as the “fágé,” or place of
meeting. Here we were feasted with a kind of “boló-boló,” or water
mixed with pounded argúm or dukhn, sour milk, and meat, and then
continued our march to Kúkawa, where we arrived just as the vizier
was mounting on horseback to go to the sheikh. Galloping up to him,
we paid him our respects; and he expressed himself well pleased
with me. My companions told him that we had been swimming about
in the lake for the last two days, and that I had written down
everything. The whole cavalcade, consisting of eight horsemen, then
accompanied me to my house, where I gave them a treat.
 I returned just in time from my excursion; for the next day the
caravan for Fezzán encamped outside the town, and I had to send
off two of my men with it. One of them was the carpenter Ibrahím, a
handsome young man, but utterly unfit for work, of whom I was
extremely glad to get rid; the other was Mohammed el Gatróni, my
faithful servant from Múrzuk, whom I dismissed with heartfelt sorrow.
He had had a very small salary; and I therefore promised to give him
four Spanish dollars a month, and to mount him on horseback; but it
was all in vain; he was anxious to see his wife and children again,
after which he promised to come back. I, therefore, like the generals
of ancient Rome, gave him leave of absence—“pueris procreandis
daret operam.”
On the other side, it was well worth a sacrifice to send a
trustworthy man to Fezzán. The expedition had lost its director, who
alone was authorized to act in the name of the Government which
had sent us out; we had no means whatever, but considerable debts,
and without immediate aid by fresh supplies, the surviving members
could do no better than to return home as soon as possible.
Moreover, there were Mr. Richardson’s private things to be
forwarded, and particularly his journal, which, from the beginning of
the journey down to the very last days of his life, he had kept with
great care,—more fortunate he, and more provident in this respect
than my other companion, who laughed at me when, during
moments of leisure, I finished the notes which I had briefly written
down during the march, and who contended that nothing could be
done in this respect till after a happy return home. I therefore
provided Mohammed, upon whose discretion and fidelity I could
entirely rely, with a camel, and entrusted to him all Mr. Richardson’s
things and my parcel of letters, which he was to forward by the
courier, who is generally sent on by the caravan after its arrival in the
Tébu country.
There were two respectable men with the caravan, Háj Hassan, a
man belonging to the family of el Kánemi, and in whose company Mr.
Vogel afterwards travelled from Fezzán to Bórnu, and Mohammed
Titíwi. On the 2nd of May, therefore, I went to pay a visit to these
men, but found only Titíwi, to whom I recommended my servant. He
promised to render him all needful assistance. I had but little
intercourse with this man, yet this little occurred on important
occasions, and so his name has become a pleasant remembrance to
me. I first met him when sending off the literary remains of my
unfortunate companion. I at the same time ventured to introduce
myself to Her Majesty’s Government, and to try if it would so far rely
upon me, a foreigner, as to entrust me with the further direction of
the expedition, and to ask for means; it was then Titíwi again who
brought me the most honourable despatches from the British
Government, authorizing me to carry out the expedition just as it had
been intended, and at the same time means for doing so. It was
Titíwi, who on the day when I was leaving Kúkawa on my long
adventurous journey to Timbúktu, came to my house to wish me
success in my arduous undertaking; and it was Titíwi again, who, on
the 2nd of August, 1855, came to the consul’s house, in Tripoli, to
congratulate me on my successful return from the interior.
He was an intelligent man, and being informed that I was about to
undertake a journey to Ádamáwa, the dangers of which he well
knew, he expressed his astonishment that I should make the attempt
with a weak horse, such as I was then riding. My horse, though it
had recovered a little from its lameness, and was getting strength
from a course of dumplings made of the husk of Negro corn mixed
with natron, which it had to swallow every morning and evening, was
anything but a good charger; and having previously determined to
look about for a better horse, I was only confirmed in my intention by
the observation of the experienced merchant.
This was one of the largest slave caravans which departed during
my stay in Bórnu; for, if I am not mistaken, there were seven hundred
and fifty slaves in the possession of the merchants who went with it.
Slaves are as yet the principal export from Bórnu, and will be so till
the slave-trade on the north coast is abolished.
Overweg had not yet arrived, although we had received
information that he was on his way directly from Zínder, having given
up his intention of visiting Kanó. Before I set out on my journey to
Ádamáwa, it was essential that I should confer with him about many
things, and particularly as to what he himself should first undertake,
but the rainy season was fast approaching even here, while in
Ádamáwa it had set in long ago, and it seemed necessary that I
should not delay any longer. In the afternoon of the 5th of May, we
had the first unmistakable token of the rainy season—a few heavy
claps of thunder followed by rain. But I did not tarry; the very same
day I bought in the market all that was necessary for my journey, and
the next day succeeded in purchasing a very handsome and strong
grey horse, “keri bul,” for twelve hundred and seventy rotls, equal at
that moment to two-and-thirty Austrian dollars, while I sold my weak
horse which the sheikh had given me for nine hundred rotls, or
twenty-two dollars and a half.
Having also bought an Arab saddle, I felt myself quite a match for
anybody, and hearing in the afternoon that the sheikh had gone to
Gawánge, a place two miles and a half east from the town towards
the lake, I mounted my new steed, and setting off at a gallop, posted
myself before the palace just when ʿOmár was about to come out
with the flourishing of the trumpets, sounding the Háusa word “gashí,
gashí,” “Here he is, here he is.” The sheikh was very handsomely
dressed in a fine white bernús over another of light blue colour, and
very well mounted on a fine black horse “fir kéra.” He was
accompanied by several of his and the vizier’s courtiers, and about
two hundred horsemen, who were partly riding by his side, partly
galloping on in advance and returning again to the rear, while sixty
slaves, wearing red jackets over their shirts, and armed with
matchlocks, ran in front of and behind his horse. The vizier, who saw
me first, saluted me very kindly, and sent Hámza Weled el Góni to
take me to the sheikh, who made a halt, and asked me very
graciously how I was going on, and how my excursion to the lake
had amused me. Having then taken notice of my sprightly horse, the
vizier called my servant, and expressed his regret, that the horse
which they had presented to me had not proved good, saying that I
ought to have informed them, when they would have given me a
better one. I promised to do so another time, and did not forget the
warning.
Wednesday, May 7.—Mr. Overweg arrived. The way in which he
was announced to me was so singular as to merit description. It was
about an hour before noon, and I was busy collecting some
interesting information from my friend Ibrahím el Futáwi about
Tagánet, when suddenly the little Maʿadi arrived. This lad, a liberated
slave, had been Mr. Richardson’s servant, and is frequently
mentioned in that gentleman’s journal. As he had been among those
of my companion’s people who, to my great regret, had left Kúkawa
the day before I arrived without having their claims settled, I was
very glad when he came back, but could not learn from him how it
happened that he returned; when, after some chat, he told me,
incidentally, that the tabíb (Mr. Overweg) was also come, and was
waiting for me in Kálilwá. Of course it was the latter who, meeting the
lad on the road, had brought him back, and had sent him now
expressly to inform me of his arrival. This dull but good-natured lad,
who was afterwards severely wounded in the service of the mission,
is now Mr. Vogel’s chief servant.
As soon as I fully understood the purport of this important
message, I ordered my horse to be saddled, and mounted. The sun
was extremely powerful, just about noon, shortly before the setting in
of the rainy season, and as I had forgotten, in the hurry and
excitement, to wind a turban round my cap, I very nearly suffered a
sunstroke. A traveller cannot be too careful of his head in these
countries.
I found Overweg in the shade of a nebek-tree near Kálilwá. He
looked greatly fatigued and much worse than when I left him, four
months ago, at Tasáwa: indeed, as he told me, he had been very
sickly in Zínder—so sickly, that he had been much afraid lest he
should soon follow Mr. Richardson to the grave. Perhaps the news
which he just then heard of our companion’s death made him more
uneasy about his own illness. However, we were glad to meet again
alive, and expressed our hopes to be able to do a good deal for the
exploration of these countries. He had had an opportunity of
witnessing, during his stay in Góber and Marádi, the interesting
struggle going on between this noblest part of the Háusa nation and
the Fúlbe, who threaten their political as well as religious
independence; and he was deeply impressed with the charming
scenes of unrestrained cheerful life which he had witnessed in those
pagan communities; while I, for my part, could assure him that my
reception in Bórnu seemed to guarantee success, although, under
existing circumstances, there seemed to be very little hope that we
should ever be able to make a journey all round the Tsád; but I
thought that, with the assistance of those people in Bínder and
Maduwári whom I had just visited, and who appeared to be on
friendly terms with the islanders, it might be possible to explore the
navigable part of the lagoon in the boat.
Mr. Overweg was, in some respects, very badly off, having no
clothes with him except those which he actually wore, all his luggage
being still in Kanó, though he had sent two men to fetch it. I was
therefore obliged to lend him my own things, and he took up his
quarters in another part of our house, though it was rather small for
our joint establishment. The vizier was very glad of his arrival, and, in
fulfilment of his engagement to deliver all the things left by Mr.
Richardson as soon as Mr. Overweg should arrive, he sent all the
half-empty boxes of our late companion in the evening of the next
day; even the gun and pistols, and the other things which had been
sold, were returned, with the single exception of Mr. Richardson’s
watch, which, as the sheikh was very fond of it, and kept it near him
night and day, I thought it prudent to spare him the mortification of
returning.
Mr. Overweg and I, having then made a selection from the articles
that remained to us, presented to the vizier, on the morning of the
9th, those destined for him, and in the afternoon we presented the
sheikh with his share. These presents could not now be expected to
please by their novelty, or to awaken a feeling of gratitude in the
receivers, who had long been in possession of them; but although
made to understand by Mr. Richardson’s interpreters that he alone
had been authorized by the British Government, Mr. Overweg and I
not being empowered to interfere, and that consequently they might
regard themselves as legitimate possessors of our deceased
companion’s property, they must yet have entertained some doubt
about the equity of their claim; and as soon as I arrived, and began
to act with firmness, they grew ashamed of having listened to
intriguing servants. In short, though we had put them to shame, they
esteemed us all the better for our firmness, and received their
presents in a very gracious manner.
We now spoke also about the treaty, the negotiation of which, we
said, had been specially entrusted to our companion, but now, by his
death, had devolved on us. Both of them assured us of their ardent
desire to open commercial intercourse with the English, but at the
same time they did not conceal that their principal object in so doing
was to obtain firearms. They also expressed their desire that two of
their people might return with us to England, in order to see the
country and its industry, which we told them we were convinced
would be most agreeable to the British Government. Our
conversation was so unrestrained and friendly, that the sheikh
himself took the opportunity of excusing himself for having
appropriated Mr. Richardson’s watch. But the following narrative will
show how European travellers, endeavouring to open these
countries to European intercourse, have to struggle against the
intrigues of the Arabs; who are well aware that as soon as the
Europeans, or rather the English, get access to Negroland, not only
their slave-trade, but even their whole commerce, as they now carry
it on, will be annihilated.
We had scarcely re-entered our house when, the rumour
spreading through the Arab quarter of the manner in which we had
been received, and of the matters talked of, el Khodr, a native of
Dar-Fúr, and the foremost of the native traders, went to the sheikh
with the news that seven large vessels of the English had suddenly
arrived at Nupe, and that the natives were greatly afraid of them.
This announcement was soon found to be false, but nevertheless it
served its purpose, to cool a little the friendly and benevolent feeling
which had been manifested towards us. The following day we went
to pitch the large double tent, which we had given to the sheikh, on
the open area before his palace in the eastern town; and having fully
succeeded in arranging it, although a few pieces were wanting, it
was left the whole day in its place, and made a great impression
upon the people. At first it seemed rather awkward to the natives,
whose tents, even if of large size, are mere bell-tents; but in the
course of time it pleased the sheikh so much, that when I finally left
the country, he begged me to entreat the British Government to send
him another one like it.
We also paid our respects to the principal of the sheikh’s brothers,
as well as to his eldest son. Having obtained permission, we visited
ʿAbd eʾ Rahmán, the brother and rival of the sheikh, as we could not
prudently be wanting in civility to a person who might soon get the
upper hand. We presented him with a fine white heláli bernús, and
sundry small things; he received us very graciously, and laughed and
chatted a good deal with us on the first as well as on a second visit,
when I was obliged to show him the pictures in Denham’s and
Clapperton’s work, and the drawing I had myself made of his friend,
the Kánemma chief, Ámsakay, of which he had heard; but his
manners did not please us very much. His countenance had a very
mild expression, and he manifested little intelligence or princely
demeanour, wrangling and playing the whole day with his slaves.
Besides, we were obliged to be cautious in our dealings with him; for
we had scarcely made his acquaintance, when he sent us a secret
message, begging for poison, with which he most probably wished to
rid himself of his deadly enemy the vizier. Quite a different man was
Yúsuf, the sheikh’s second brother, with whom, during my last stay in
Kúkawa, in the beginning of 1855, I became intimately acquainted.
He was a learned and very religious man, always reading, and with a
very acute sense of justice; but he was not a man of business. As for
Bú-Bakr, the eldest son of ʿOmár, who now unfortunately seems to
have the best claim to the succession, he was a child, devoid of
intelligence or noble feelings. Twice was I obliged to have recourse
to his father to make him pay me for some articles which he had
bought of me.
The much-desired moment of my departure for Ádamáwa drew
nearer and nearer. The delay of my starting on this undertaking,
occasioned by the late arrival of Mr. Overweg, had been attended
with the great advantage that, meanwhile, some messengers of the
governor of that country had arrived, in whose company, as they
were returning immediately, I was able to undertake the journey with
a much better prospect of success. The subject of their message
was, that Kashélla ʿAlí Ladán, on his late predatory incursion into the
Marghí country, had enslaved and carried away inhabitants of
several places to which the governor of Ádamáwa laid claim, and it
was more in order to establish his right, than from any real concern
in the fate of these unfortunate creatures, that he was pleased to lay
great stress upon the case. Indeed, as the sequel shows, his letter
must have contained some rather harsh or threatening expressions,
to which the ruler of Bórnu was not inclined to give way, though he
yielded[51] to the justice of the specific claim. At first these
messengers from Ádamáwa were to be my only companions besides
my own servants, and on the 21st of May I was officially placed
under their protection in the house of the sheikh by several of the
first courtiers or kokanáwa, among whom were the old Ibrahím
Wadáy, the friend and companion of Mohammed el Kánemi in his
first heroical proceedings, Shítima Náser, Hámza, and Kashélla ʿAli,
and the messengers promised to see me safe to their country, and to
provide for my safe return.
Íbrahíma, the head man of these messengers, who were all of
rather inferior rank, was not such a man as I wished for; but
fortunately there was among them another person named
Mohámmedu, who, although himself a Púllo by descent, had more of
the social character of the Háusa race, and was ready to gratify my
desire for information. He proved most useful in introducing me into
the new country which I was to explore, and would have been of
immense service to me if I had been allowed to make any stay there.
After much delay, and having twice taken official leave of the
sheikh in full state, I had at length the pleasure of seeing our little
band ready for starting in the afternoon of Thursday, the 29th May,
1851. Rather more, I think, with a view to his own interest, than from
any apprehension on my account, the sheikh informed me, in the last
interview which I had with him, that he would send an officer along
with me. This move puzzled me from the beginning, and caused me
some misgiving; and there is not the least doubt, as the sequel will
show, that to the company of this officer it must be attributed that I
was sent back by Mohammed Láwl, the governor of Ádamáwa,
without being allowed to stay any time in the country; but, for truth’s
sake, I must admit that if I had not been accompanied by this man, it
is doubtful whether I should have been able to overcome the very
great difficulties and dangers which obstruct this road.
 CHAPTER XXXII.
SETTING OUT ON MY JOURNEY TO ÁDAMÁWA.
—THE FLAT SWAMPY GROUNDS OF BÓRNU.

Thursday, May 29.—At four o’clock in the afternoon I left the

“chínna ánumbe,” the southern gate of Kúkawa, on my adventurous
journey to Ádamáwa. My little troop was not yet all collected. For
being extremely poor at the time, or rather worse than poor, as I had
nothing but considerable debts, I had cherished the hope that I
should be able to carry all my luggage on one camel; but when the
things were all packed up, provisions, cooking utensils, tent, and a
few presents, I saw that the one weak animal which I had was not
enough, and bought another of Mr. Overweg, which had first to be
fetched from the pasture-ground. I therefore left two servants and my
old experienced Háusa warrior, the Mʿallem Katúri, whom, as I have
stated above, I had expressly hired for this journey, behind me in the
town, in order to follow us in the night with the other camel.
Mr. Overweg, attended by a spirited little fellow, named ʿAli, a
native of Ghát, who had brought his luggage from Kanó,
accompanied me. But the most conspicuous person in our troop was
Bíllama,[52] the officer whom the sheikh had appointed to
accompany me, a tall, handsome Bórnu man, mounted on a most
splendid grey horse of great size, and of a very quick pace. He had
two servants with him, besides a man of Mʿala Ibrám, likewise
mounted on horseback, who was to accompany us as far as the
Marghí country. The messengers from Ádamáwa, as we proceeded
onward, gradually collected together from the hamlets about, where
they had been waiting for us, and the spearmen among them saluted
me by raising their spears just in my face, and beating their small
round hippopotamus shields; Mohámmedu was armed with a sword
and bow and arrows. They had not been treated so well as, with
reference to my prospects, the sheikh ought to have treated them,
and Íbrahíma, instead of a handsome horse which was promised to
him, had received a miserable poor mare, quite unfit for himself, and
scarcely capable of carrying his little son and his small provision bag.
As soon as I had left the town behind me, and saw that I was fairly
embarked in my undertaking, I indulged in the most pleasant
feelings. I had been cherishing the plan of penetrating into those
unknown countries to the south for so long a time, that I felt the
utmost gratification in being at length able to carry out my design. At
that time I even cherished the hope that I might succeed in reaching
Báya, and thus extend my inquiries even as far as the equator; but
my first design was, and had always been, to decide by ocular
evidence the question with regard to the direction and the tributaries
of the great river which flowed through the country in the south.
Leaving the Ngórnu road to our left, we reached the village Kába
at sunset, but were received so inhospitably, that, after much
opposition from a quarrelsome old woman, we took up our quarters
not inside, but outside, her courtyard, and with difficulty obtained a
little fire, with which we boiled some coffee, but had not firewood
enough for cooking a supper, so that we satisfied our appetite with
cold “díggwa,” a sweetmeat made of meal, honey, and butter. The
inhabitants of the villages at no great distance from the capital are
generally very inhospitable; but the traveller will find the same in any
country.
Friday, May 30.—At an early hour we were ready to resume our
march, not having even pitched a tent during the night. The morning
was very fine; and, in comparison with the naked and bare environs
of the capital, the country seemed quite pleasant to me, although the
flora offered scarcely anything but stunted acacias of the gáwo and
kindíl kind, while dúm-bush and the Asclepias procera formed the
underwood, and coarse dry grass full of “ngíbbu” or Pennisetum
distichum covered the ground. Now and then a fine tamarind-tree
interrupted this monotony, and formed a landmark; indeed both the
well which we passed (Tamsúkú-korí) and the village Tamsúkwá,
have received their names from this most beautiful and useful tree,
which in Kanúri is called tamsúku or temsúku.
 After only four hours’ march we halted near the village Pírtwa, as
Mr. Overweg was now to return, and as I wished my other people
now to come up. Having long tried in vain to buy some provisions
with our “kúngona” or shells, Mr. Overweg at length succeeded in
purchasing a goat with his servant’s shirt. This article, even if much
worn, is always regarded as ready money in the whole of Negroland;
and as long as a man has a shirt he is sure not to starve. Afterwards
the inhabitants of the village brought us several bowls of “bírri,” or
porridge of Negro corn; and we employed ourselves in drinking
coffee and eating, till it was time for Mr. Overweg to depart, when we
separated with the most hearty wishes for the success of each
other’s enterprise: for we had already fully discussed his undertaking
to navigate the lagoon in the English boat.
We then started at a later hour, and, following a more westerly
path, took up our night’s quarters at Dýnnamarí, the village of
Dynnama or Ámade. Instead of this most westerly road, my people
had taken the most easterly; and we at length joined them, a little
before noon of the following day, at the village Úlo Kurá, which, with
the whole district, belongs to the “Mágirá” (the mother of the sheikh),
and so forms a distinct domain called “Mágirári.” But the country for
thirty or forty miles round Kúkawa is intersected by so many paths,
that it is very difficult for parties to meet, if the place of rendezvous
has not been precisely indicated. The country hereabouts at this time
of the year presents a most dreary appearance, being full of those
shallow hollows of deep-black argillaceous soil called “fírki” by the
Kanúri, and “ghadír” by the Arabs, which during the rainy season
form large ponds of water, and when the rainy season draws to an
end, and the water decreases, afford the most excellent soil for the
cultivation of the “másakwá,” a species of holcus (H. cernuus), which
constitutes a very important article of cultivation in these alluvial
lowlands round the Tsád, or even for wheat. At a later season, after
the grain is harvested, these hollows, being sometimes of an
immense extent, and quite bare and naked, give the country a most
dismal appearance. The water in Úlo Kurá was extremely
disagreeable, owing to this nature of the ground.
 Continuing our march in the afternoon, after the heat had
decreased, we passed, after about four miles, the first encampment
of Shúwa, or berí Shúwabe, which I had yet seen in the country.
Shúwa is a generic name, denoting all the Arabs (or rather eastern
Arabs) settled in Bórnu, and forming a component part of the
population of the country; in Bagírmi they are called Shíwa. No Arab
from the coast is ever denoted by this name; but his title is Wásirí, or
Wásilí. This native Arab population appears to have immigrated from
the east at a very early period, although at present we have no direct
historical proof of the presence of these Arabs in Bórnu before the
time of Edrís Alawóma, about two hundred and fifty years ago.
Of the migration of these Arabs from the east, there cannot be the
least doubt. They have advanced gradually through the eastern part
of Negroland, till they have overspread this country, but without
proceeding further towards the west. Their dialect is quite different
from the Mághrebí, while in many respects it still preserves the purity
and eloquence of the language of Hijáz, particularly as regards the
final vowels in the conjugation. Many of their national customs, also,
still point to their ancient settlements, as we shall see further on. I
became very intimate with these people at a later period, by taking
into my service a young Shúwa lad, who was one of my most useful
servants on my journey to Timbúktu. These Shúwa are divided into
many distinct families or clans, and altogether may form in Bórnu a
population of from 200,000 to 250,000 souls, being able to bring into
the field about 20,000 light cavalry. Most of them have fixed villages,
where they live during the rainy season, attending the labours of the
field, while during the remaining part of the year they wander about
with their cattle. I shall say more about them in the course of my
proceedings, as opportunity occurs. The clan, whose encampment
or berí we passed to-day, are generally called Kárda by the Bórnu
people—I cannot say why,[53]—while their indigenous name,
“Bajáudi,” seems to indicate an intermixture with the Fúlbe or Felláta,
with whom the Shúwa in general are on the most friendly terms, and
may often be confounded with them on account of the similarity of
their complexion and manners. In fact, there is no doubt that it was
the Shúwa who prepared and facilitated the settlement of the Fúlbe
or Felláta in Bórnu.
We took up our quarters for the night in one of the four clusters of
huts which form the village Múngholo Gezáwa, and which, by the
neatness and cleanliness of its yards and cottages, did honour to its
lord, the vizier of Bórnu. It was here that I first observed several
small pools of rain-water, which bore testimony to the greater
intensity and the earlier setting in of the rainy season in these
regions. There were also great numbers of waterfowl seen
hereabouts.
Sunday, June 1.—When we left our quarters in the morning we
hesitated a while as to what road to take, whether that by “Múbiyó,”
or that by “Úda” or “Wúda”; but at length we decided for the latter.
The country exhibited a peculiar but not very cheerful character, the
ground consisting, in the beginning, of white clay, and further on of a
soil called “gárga” by the Kanúri people, and now and then quite arid
and barren, while at other times it was thickly overgrown with prickly
underwood, with a tamarind-tree shooting up here and there. We
then came to a locality covered with a dense forest, which at a later
period in the rainy season forms one continuous swamp, but at
present was dry, with the exception of some deep hollows already
filled with water. Here we found some of the inhabitants of the
district, all of whom are Shúwa, busy in forming watering-places for
their cattle, by enclosing circular hollows with low dykes. One of
these people was of a complexion so light as to astonish me; indeed,
he was no darker than my hands and face, and perhaps even a
shade lighter: his features were those of the Shúwa in general, small
and handsome; his figure slender. The general size of these Arabs
does not exceed five feet and a half, but they look much taller, on
account of the peculiar slenderness of their forms; for although I
have seen many specimens of stout Fúlbe, I have scarcely ever
seen one robust Shúwa. The forest was enlivened by numberless
flocks of wild pigeons.
We then emerged into a more open country, passing several
villages of a mixed population, half of them being Shúwa, the other
half Kanúri. All their huts have a thatched roof of a perfectly spherical
shape, quite distinct from the general form of huts in this country, the
top, or “kógi ngímbe,” being entirely wanting. One of these villages,
called Dásedísk, is well remembered by the people on account of the
sheikh, Mohammed el Kánemi, having been once encamped in its
neighbourhood. At a rather early hour we halted for the heat of the
day in a village called Ménoway, where an old decrepit Shúwa from
Úda, led by his equally aged and faithful better-half, came to me in
quest of medicine for his infirmities. To my great vexation, a
contribution of several fowls was laid by my companions upon the
villagers for my benefit; and I had to console an old blind man, who
stumbled about in desperate search after his cherished hen. There
was a numerous herd of cattle just being watered at the two wells of
the village. Starting again in the afternoon, we reached one of the
hamlets forming the district Magá just in time to avoid the drenching
of a violent storm which broke forth in the evening. But the lanes
formed by the fences of the yards were so narrow that we had the
greatest difficulty in making our camels pass through them—an
inconvenience which the traveller experiences very often in these
countries, where the camel is not the indigenous and ordinary beast
of burden. The well here was nine fathoms deep.
Monday, June 2.—Starting tolerably early, we reached, after two
miles, an extensive fírki, the black boggy soil of which, now dry,
showed a great many footprints of the giraffe. This I thought
remarkable at the moment, but still more so when, in the course of
my travels, I became aware how very rarely this animal, which roams
over the extensive and thinly inhabited plains on the border of
Negroland, is found within the populous districts. This “fírki” was the
largest I had yet seen, and exceeded three miles in length. Much
rain had already fallen hereabouts; and further on, near a full pond,
we observed two wild hogs (gadó), male (bí) and female (kúrgurí),
running one after the other. This also was a new sight for me, as
heretofore I had scarcely seen a single specimen of this animal in
this part of the world; but afterwards I found that, in the country
between this and Bagírmi, this animal lives in immense numbers. We
here overtook a small troop of native traders, or “tugúrchi,” with
sumpter-oxen laden with natron, while another with unloaded beasts