Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology 35 (2) 2021
1007/s12206-021-0140-0
Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology 35 (2) 2021
Original Article
DOI 10.1007/s12206-021-0140-0
Keywords:
· Recurrent neural network
· Deep learning
· Model predictive control
· Renewable energy
· PV power generation
Correspondence to:
Kwang Ho Lee
kwhlee@korea.ac.kr
Citation:
Park, M. K., Lee, J. M., Kang, W. H., Choi,
J. M., Lee, K. H. (2021). Predictive model
for PV power generation using RNN
(LSTM). Journal of Mechanical Science
and Technology 35 (2) (2021) 795~803.
http://doi.org/10.1007/s12206-021-0140-0
Received September 22nd, 2020
Revised October 19th, 2020
Accepted October 19th, 2020
† Recommended by Editor
Yong Tae Kang
© The Korean Society of Mechanical
Engineers and Springer-Verlag GmbH
Germany, part of Springer Nature 2021
DOI 10.
Predictive model for PV power generation
using RNN (LSTM)
Min Kyeong Park1, Jong Man Lee1, Won Hee Kang1, Jong Min Choi2 and Kwang Ho Lee3
1
Graduate School, Department of Architecture, College of Engineering, Korea University, 145 Anam-ro,
2
Seongbuk-gu, Seoul 02841, Korea, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Hanbat National University,
3
125 Dongseo-daero, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 34158, Korea, Department of Architecture, College of Engi-
neering, Korea University, 145 Anam-ro, Seongbuk-gu, Seoul 02841, Korea
Abstract In recent years, advanced information technologies, such as deep learning and
big data, have been actively applied in building energy management systems to improve en-
ergy efficiency. Various studies have been conducted on the prediction of renewable energy
performance using machine learning techniques. In this study, a recurrent neural network
(RNN) was utilized in predicting photovoltaic (PV) power generation. An RNN is an artificial
neural network in which the connection between units is composed of a cyclic structure that can
reflect the characteristics of time series. Therefore, to eventually incorporate a model predictive
control technique for energy demand and supply matching, this study uses previously meas-
ured weather data and PV power generation data to predict the future PV power generation.
Various optimization processes, such as normalization, classification of learning data, and set-
ting of layer options, are performed to create a predictive model. Furthermore, 500 hidden neu-
rons and 1 and 3 hidden layers are created and compared. The initial learning rate for both
single and multiple-layer options was set to 0.05. As a result, the coefficient of variation of the
root mean squared error, Cv(RMSE), which is a statistical index to assess the overall accuracy
of the predicted values, was 13.8 % for a single layer and 13.2 % for a multiple-layer long short
term memory model. Although no significant difference was observed between the two models,
the multiple-layer model showed a slightly reduced error rate than the single-layer model, and
the accurate prediction was confirmed to be achievable. Based on this study, a stable energy
supply system can be established through linkage with energy storage control by predicting the
amount of energy production through renewable energy sources and the amount of energy
demand at urban scale.
1. Introduction
According to the World Energy Outlook 2018 published by the International Energy Agency,
global energy demand is expected to increase by approximately 25 % by 2040, and, if energy
efficiency is not improved, the global demand will rise by approximately 50 % over the same
period [1]. Accordingly, several countries have set energy conservation and efficiency im-
provement as core strategies to address climate change and energy security by establishing
and promoting various countermeasures [2]. In addition, the global expansion of smart cities,
which intend to use information and communication technology as a new growth engine, is
rapidly progressing in accordance with the 4th industrial revolution fields such as big data
analysis, artificial intelligence, and robotics [3]. A smart city is a model that can solve urban
problems and achieve sustainability by incorporating new technologies into urban platforms
that address transportation, energy, and environmental issues [4]. At present, the Korean gov-
ernment is working to promote the greening of energy suppliers, for instance, by announcing
plans to expand the share of renewable energy generation, such as solar, geothermal, and fuel
cells, to 20 % by 2030 [5]. As part of these efforts, the implementation of zero-energy buildings
and smart zero-energy cities has accelerated, and the share of renewable energy has in-
creased by 68 % [6].
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 Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology 35 (2) 2021
Therefore, advanced information technologies such as deep
learning and big data have been actively applied in the building
energy management system to improve energy efficiency. A
variety of studies have been performed thus far on the predic-
tion of renewable energy sources using machine learning
technique. One such technology is recurrent neural network
(RNN), an artificial neural network in which the connection
between units is composed of a cyclic structure that reflects the
characteristics of time series. The RNN has a disadvantage in
that when the distance between the related information and the
point using the information is far, the gradient gradually de-
creases and the learning ability is degraded [7]. To compen-
sate for this limitation, recent studies have explored the use of
long short-term memory (LSTM) technique of RNN. The re-
search directions related to RNN and LSTM techniques in the
building and urban energy field are the following.
In a study by Jeon et aI. [7], unpredictable occupancy infor-
mation was fed to a deep-learning model by assuming that, in
the future, the occupants may actively interact with the control
systems through various smart devices. Deep-learning models
with single and deeper layers were tested in this study, and
both showed excellent performance for data matching during
the learning periods. Wen et al. [8] developed a deep RNN with
LSTM units (DRNN-LSTM) model to forecast aggregated
power load and photovoltaic (PV) power output in a community
microgrid. Two real-world datasets were used to test the pro-
posed forecasting model, and the results show that the DRNN-
LSTM model performs better than a multi-layer perception
(MLP) network and support vector machine (SVM). The study
found that the energy storage system and coordinated charg-
ing mode of electric vehicles can promote peak load shifting
and reduce daily costs by 8.97. Jullian et al. [9] trained deep
learning models to predict the performance of a solar hot water
system under different meteorological conditions. Techniques
such as artificial neural networks (ANN), RNN, and LSTM were
explored. The LSTM models achieved a low mean absolute
error of 0.55 °C and the lowest root mean square error scores
(1.27 °C) for temperature sequence predictions, as well as the
lowest variance (0.52 °C) and relative prediction errors
(3.45 %) for single value predictions, indicating a more reliable
prediction performance.
Ghimire et al. [10] ascertained that a proposed hybrid model
based on a convolutional network framework can accurately
predict global solar radiation and enable energy availability to
be regularly monitored over multi-step horizons when coupled
with a low-latency LSTM network. Gao et al. [11] proposed
day-ahead power output time-series forecasting methods in
which ideal and non-ideal weather types were separately dis-
cussed. A prediction performance comparison between the
proposed methods with traditional algorithms revealed that the
RMSE accuracy of forecasting methods based on LSTM net-
works can reach 4.62 % in ideal weather conditions. Han et al.
[12] proposed a method for mid-to long-term wind and PV
power generation prediction based on a copula function and
LSTM network. The study’s independent and joint power gen-
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DOI 10.1007/s12206-021-0140-0
eration prediction results demonstrated that the proposed ap-
proach outperforms the persistence and SVM models and can
have widespread applicability in limited data samples. Wang et
al. [13] proposed a hybrid model based on convolutional neural
network and LSTM network models, which were applied to the
obtained data in the PV system. The results of the deep learn-
ing model proposed on PV power prediction also indicate that
deep learning is useful in improving the accuracy of PV power
prediction.
Shin and Kim [14] proposed a short-term deep learning pre-
diction model for solar power generation using meteorological
data from the Mokpo meteorological agency and generation
data from the Yeongam solar power plant. The forecasted
power generation of the proposed model show an average
RMSE and mean absolute error of 0.177 and 0.095 for deep
neural network and 0.116 and 0.067 for RNN. Furthermore,
LSTM produced the best results at 0.100 and 0.054. In another
study by Wang et al. [15], a hybrid deep learning model
(LSTM-convolutional network) is proposed and applied to PV
power prediction. The results show that the hybrid prediction
model has a better prediction effect than the single prediction
model and that the proposed hybrid model, which first extracts
the temporal characteristics of the data and then the spatial
characteristics, is more effective than the LSTM-convolutional
network, which first extracts the spatial characteristics and then
the temporal characteristics of the data. Su et al. [16] proposed
a robust hybrid hours-ahead gas consumption method by inte-
grating a wavelet transform, RNN-structured deep learning,
and a genetic algorithm. The wavelet transform is used to re-
duce the complexity of the forecasting tasks by decomposing
the original series of gas loads into several sub-components.
Gensler et al. [17] introduced powerful algorithms in renewable
energy power forecasting by using different deep learning
methods, such as deep belief networks, an autoencoder, and
LSTM. In their experiments, combinations of these algorithms
were used to show their forecasting strength compared with a
standard MLP and a physical forecasting model in predicting
the energy output of 21 solar power plants.
Qing and Niu [18] proposed a novel solar prediction scheme
for hourly day-ahead solar irradiance prediction by using
weather forecasting data. For a case using 10 years of histori-
cal data to predict a year of irradiance data, the prediction
RMSE using the proposed LSTM algorithm decreased by
42.9 % against back-propagation neural network. Srivastava
and Lessmann [19] also investigated the LSTM technique,
comparing its forecasting accuracy to alternative methods with
a proven track record in solar energy forecasting. From an
academic point of view, LSTM and the proposed framework for
experimental design provided a valuable environment for future
studies assessing new forecasting technology. Salman et al.
[20] proposed a robust and adaptive statistical model and ex-
plored the effect of intermediate weather variables related to
accuracy prediction using a single-layer LSTM and multi-layer
LSTM models. The best LSTM model was a multi-layer LSTM,
and the best intermediate data were pressure variable. Based
 Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology 35 (2) 2021 DOI 10.1007/s12206-021-0140-0

on the pressure variable, the model gained validation accuracy

of 0.8060 and RMSE of 0.0775. In the study by Kang et al.
performance prediction model of a DX AHU (direct expansion
air handling unit)-water source VRF heat pump system was
constructed. The validity test results after the calibrations
showed reliable results with a Cv(RMSE) of 14.5 %, and a
sensitivity analysis of the DX AHU-water source VRF system’s
cooling energy was performed according to important control
variables [21]. Ning et al. developed a dynamic system model
of a two-zone variable air volume heating, ventilation and air
conditioning and refrigeration (VAV-HVAC&R) system and five
adaptive controllers were designed to achieve good tracking
control of set points of zone air temperatures, discharge air
temperature, chilled water supply temperature and static pres- Fig. 1. Input and output layer setting.
sure of the VAV-HVAC&R system [22]. Li et al. developed a
model of a water-cooled centrifugal chiller system is developed
and a multi-mode control strategy was designed to simulate the
operation of the centrifugal chiller as it transitions between
start-up, speed control mode, IGV control mode and shutdown
mode during a typical day operation [23]. In the research by
Swarup et al., value engineering (VE) is presented to calculate
the heating cost and cooling cost of the air conditioner with the Fig. 2. LSTM cell structure [27].
assistance of an ANN with an optimization model. For improv-
ing the prediction accuracy of VE in the ANN model, some possible, and algorithms can be implemented through pro-
training algorithms and optimized the network hidden layer and gramming [25]. MATLAB itself provides useful toolboxes, such
hidden neuron by opposition genetic algorithm (OGA) were as interfaces to multiple hardware, to enable reliable deep
incorporated [24]. learning implementations.
Research on the prediction of energy production and con-
sumption based on RNN (LSTM) has been conducted in vari-
2.2 Simulation conditions
ous fields. The RNN is more accurate than other ANNs be-
cause the connection between units is composed of a cyclic In this study, we used weather data from Jincheon, Korea,
structure and can achieve prediction through continuous learn- provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration. Modeling
ing, with the characteristic of time series. However, existing was conducted by applying the measured solar PV power
studies lack not only consideration of the predictive perform- generation. The measured weather data and the amount of
ance of the multi-layer LSTM model composed of three or solar PV power generation reflected the time-phase data from
more layers but also consideration of the optimal operation of 9:00 to 17:00 from January 1 to July 9, 2019. The input layer of
energy supply systems when demand (building) and supply deep learning to model for prediction was set to weather data
(solar PV) are linked to each other. (outdoor air temperature, humidity, direct solar radiation, dif-
In the present study, previously measured weather data and fuse solar radiation, and wind speed), day, and time. The out-
PV power generation data are used in predicting PV power put layer was set to the solar PV power generation and the
generation to eventually incorporate a model predictive control simulation was performed.
technique for energy demand and supply matching for build-
ings based on the developed algorithm. This study adopts an
2.3 Overview of RNN
LSTM technique that transfers memory through iterative learn-
ing because it requires continuous data processing. Therefore, The deep learning technique used in this study is an RNN
to implement reliable modeling, the modeling was performed model, which keeps information from previous stages through
using the LSTM toolbox in MATLAB, a platform that provides a repetition. However, if a long learning period is required, the
numerical analysis and programming environment developed degree of change decreases and the learning ability is de-
by MathWorks. graded. The proposed technique to solve this problem is the
LSTM, a type of RNN that has the ability to smoothly perform
2. Method long learning periods [26]. Although the RNN only has one
2.1 Simulation tool layer, the LSTM is configured such that four layers exchange
information with one another. Among these layers, the cell
The MATLAB software is ideal for iterative analysis and de- state, which acts like a conveyor belt, keeps the information
sign processes. Additionally, matrix-based calculations are unchanged and enables unit movement. The LSTM technique

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 Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology 35 (2) 2021 DOI 10.1007/s12206-021-0140-0

can also add or remove information in the cell state, which is Table 1. Cv(RMSE) value (%) according to number of hidden neurons and
controlled by gates [27]. In the first step, the forget gate deter- hidden layers with a learning rate of 0.05.
mines what data are discarded from the cell state. Then, the Number of hidden layers
input gate determines the data to be added and stores it in the Sort
1 2 3 4
cell state. Finally, the output gate is controlled by determining
10 14.89 13.92 13.79 13.96
the output data and propagating them to the next node. There-
Number 100 15.95 13.54 13.96 14.53
fore, the LSTM technique is suitable for the continuous data
of hidden 250 16.25 13.77 13.08 13.92
processing in the present simulation.
neurons
300 16.11 13.8 13.65 14.45
3. Predictive model based on deep learn- 500 13.8 13.65 13.28 50.45
ing
3.1 Learning process Table 2. Cv(RMSE) value (%) according to number of hidden neurons and
hidden layers with a learning rate of 0.01.
In this study, we attempted to implement an RNN, an ANN
Number of hidden layers
capable of continuous input processing, to predict solar PV Sort
1 2 3 4
power generation. The RNN model consisted of various learn-
ing variables, such as learning rate, number of layers, number 10 15.83 14.53 50.45 50.54
of units, and optimization techniques that constitute LSTM [7]. Number 100 15.64 13.89 13.75 50.54
This study developed its models using the LSTM toolbox pro- of hidden 250 15.68 13.61 13.71 14.21
vided by MATLAB. MATLAB recommends using the stochastic neurons
300 15.89 14.14 13.54 14.38
gradient descent (SGD) method and Adam algorithms as the 500 15.96 13.92 14.34 13.48
optimization method of LSTM for RNN implementation [25].
The SGD technique is considered inefficient because it takes a Table 3. Cv(RMSE) value (%) according to number of hidden neurons and
significant amount of time to find an optimal solution when the hidden layers with a learning rate of 0.005.
working environment is insufficient for iterative calculation [7].
Number of hidden layers
Therefore, in this study, to repeatedly predict the amount of Sort
solar PV power generation, we used the Adam algorithm, 1 2 3 4
which can find the optimal solution efficiently by flexibly adjust- 10 15.01 13.91 50.45 50.45
ing the learning rate and model building time through learning. Number 100 15.62 14.24 50.45 50.45
Then, various training options work as variables that influence of hidden 250 15.78 14.07 50.45 13.75
learning. We set the number of hidden layers and hidden neu- neurons
300 15.71 14.75 14.17 50.45
rons by which the predictive model could derive the most accu- 500 15.23 13.83 14.25 13.48
rate results.
The learning rate is an additional factor that directly affects Table 4. Cv(RMSE) value (%) according to number of hidden neurons and
the prediction results. If the learning rate is extremely small or hidden layers with a learning rate of 0.001.
large, learning can take a long time or expand considerably.
Therefore, an important task is to find the suitable learning rate Number of hidden layers
Sort
for the predictive model. Predictive values were calculated 1 2 3 4
through the aforementioned learning variables by applying the 10 14.72 15.33 50.45 50.45
coefficient of variation of the root mean squared error, Number 100 15.18 14.87 50.45 50.45
Cv(RMSE), which is a statistical concept for determining overall of hidden 250 15.18 13.59 50.45 50.45
accuracy; the optimal LSTM model was set by adopting the neurons
300 15.31 13.71 50.45 50.45
variable with the lowest Cv(RMSE) value [27, 28]. Although the 500 15.32 13.96 13.87 50.45
model shows the prediction accuracy of more than a certain
level within the training dataset, when applied to new data, what
does not fit well is called overfitting. To prevent this condition, RMSE period
CV ( RMSE ) = (2)
we divided the learning and test sets. The simulation was per- Aperiod
formed by classifying 80 % of the total data as learning data and
20 % as testing data. In addition, the model was normalized for Aperiod =
∑ period
M interval
. (3)
accurate prediction, preventing the distortion or diversion of N interval
learning results through normalization of input and output values.
3.2 Development of predictive model
∑(S − M )
2

RMSE = interval
(1) Tables 1-4 show the Cv(RMSE) values according to the
N interval learning rate. Four learning rates were set: 0.05, 0.01, 0.005,

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 Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology 35 (2) 2021
Fig. 3. Recurrent neural network model - single LSTM.
and 0.001. The optimization process was performed by chang-
ing the number of hidden layers and hidden neurons with the
set initial learning rate as a fixed value. The Cv(RMSE) values
in Tables 1-4 are the results after the outlier work, which re-
moves samples that deviate significantly from the average
value. We developed prediction models of single and multiple
LSTM by selecting the learning rate of the smallest error rate
before and after the outlier. In this study, we compared the four
learning rates through the optimization process and showed
the lowest error rate at 0.05. Consequently, the simulation was
conducted with 0.05 as the default setting. When the number of
hidden neurons of the single LSTM was set to 500, the lowest
error rate was 13.8 %. In the multiple LSTM, the lowest error
rate was 13.2 %, similar to that of the single LSTM, when the
learning rate was set to 0.05 and the number of hidden units
was 500 with three hidden layers. However, if the learning rate
was set extremely high or low in the optimal learning rate set-
ting phase of the simulation, the prediction was not made and
divergent cases appeared. The Cv(RMSE) value at that time
was 50.54 % or 50.45 %.
Fig. 3 shows an initial learning rate of 0.05. The diagram
shows a single-layer deep learning model consisting of a hid-
den layer and 500 hidden neurons. In the single-layer deep
learning model, the LSTM layer is set to one layer in the
MATLAB environment to determine the optimal number of
hidden neurons and learning rate. In this study, the simulations
were repeated as shown in Tables 1-4 to optimize the number
of hidden neurons and hidden layers. As a result, in a single
layer, the lowest Cv(RMSE) was shown as 13.8 % with 500
hidden neurons and a learning rate of 0.05.
Fig. 4 shows the initial learning rate of 0.05 and a diagram of
DOI 10.1007/s12206-021-0140-0
Fig. 4. Recurrent neural network model - deeper LSTM.
a multiple-layer model consisting of three hidden layers and
500 hidden neurons. Multiple layers can further deepen the
learning than a single-layer model. The multiple-layer deep
learning model sets the number of LSTM layers to three in the
MATLAB environment, where the optimal number of hidden
neurons and learning rate were determined. In this study, the
simulations were repeated, as shown in Tables 1-4, to optimize
the number of hidden neurons and hidden layers. Thus, in the
multiple-layer model, the lowest Cv(RMSE) was 13.2 % with
500 hidden neurons and a learning rate of 0.05. This result
shows an approximately 0.6 % improvement in the error rate
over the single LSTM model.
4. Analysis and discussion of results
4.1 Analysis of outdoor weather conditions
Fig. 5 shows the outdoor air temperature and total solar ra-
diation hourly data in May, which was used as input in the
simulation. The average outside air temperature in May was
18.6 °C, with a maximum of 32.4 °C and a minimum of 4.2 °C.
Various temperature ranges were shown over time. In addition,
the total amount of insolation combined with diffuse solar radia-
tion and direct solar radiation was measured from 06:00 to
20:00 in May; the average solar radiation was 0.28 kWh. At
sunrise, the maximum was 1.05 kWh and the minimum was
0.01 kWh, and at sunset the radiation was 0 kWh.
4.2 Analysis of PV power generation
Fig. 6 shows the total solar radiation and PV power genera-
tion hourly data for May. The average monthly solar radiation in
May was 0.28 kWh, with maximum of 1.05 kWh and minimum
of 0.01 kWh. The average amount of solar PV power genera-
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Fig. 5. Solar radiation and outdoor air temperature.
Fig. 6. Solar radiation and PV power generation.
Fig. 7. Predicting solar PV power generation: measured vs. single LSTM.
tion set as output data was 143.5 kWh, with a maximum of
545 kWh and minimum of 1.4 kWh. Most of the solar radiation
was measured from 06:00 to 20:00. The amount of solar PV
power generation changed in the same pattern as the amount
of solar radiation. In addition, from 20:00 to 06:00, the total
amount of solar radiation and solar PV power generation was
0 kWh.
4.3 Comparison and analysis of predictive
data
Fig. 7 shows a comparison of the PV power generation
when the actual measurement-based solar PV power genera-
tion test data collected at the beginning of the study was simu-
lated using a trained deep learning model (single layer). The
Cv(RMSE) value showed an error of 13.8 %. The average
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DOI 10.1007/s12206-021-0140-0
Fig. 8. Learning performance: single layer.
Fig. 9. Learning performance: multiple layer.
amount of PV power generation used as test data was
293.1 kWh, the maximum value was 562.5 kWh, and the mini-
mum value was 8.8 kWh. The average solar PV power genera-
tion predicted by the MATLAB program’s deep learning model
was 286.8 kWh, with a maximum value of 539.2 kWh and a
minimum value of 43.67 kWh. The averages of the measured
and predicted values of solar PV power generation are similar.
However, the reason for the slight error rate as a result of the
prediction is that the accuracy of the prediction model de-
creased slightly as the value of solar PV power generation
increased.
Figs. 8 and 9 present scatter plots of measured and pre-
dicted values for the single-layer and multiple-layer models. Fig.
8 shows an error rate of 13.8 % with the single LSTM model.
Fig. 9 shows an error rate of 13.2 % with the multiple LSTM
model, which is approximately 0.6 % lower than that of the
single LSTM model. In Figs. 8 and 9, the closer the dots are to
the diagonal, the higher is the accuracy of the model. For the
single-LSTM and multi-LSTM models used in this study, most
of the dots are close to diagonal. A comparison of Figs. 8 and 9
shows that as the solar PV power generation value increases,
the multiple LSTM model indicates a graph pattern in which the
dots are collected more densely than for the single LSTM
model. To improve the prediction accuracy of the model
through deep learning, the simulation was separately con-
ducted using the single-LSTM and multiple-LSTM models. By
using the multiple LSTM model, we can confirm that more ac-
 Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology 35 (2) 2021
Fig. 10. PV power generation learning performance for 1 week.
Fig. 11. Solar PV power generation and solar radiation in a 4-day period.
curate prediction is possible.
Fig. 10 shows some of the learning performance that pref-
aced the predictions. Six days of data training were performed
and one-day testing was presented. During the learning period,
the measured and predicted graphs moved in the same pat-
tern; however, a slight difference was observed in the amount
of power generation. The difference appears to be largely due
to the lack of learning data, and if the number of learning data
is increased, the errors should be reduced in both the learning
and prediction periods. Furthermore, the difference was im-
proved during the prediction (testing) period of one day be-
cause the testing was performed after the data training for six
days. The multiple-layer LSTM model also changes in a pattern
more similar to the measured data than does the single-layer
LSTM model.
Fig. 11 displays the predictions of solar PV power generation
from 09:00 to 17:00 for 4 days after data training and the
amount of solar radiation for 4 days. The bar graph indicates
the amount of solar radiation during that period. The solar ra-
diation strengthens in the daytime as the time changes and the
solar PV power generation moves in the same pattern as the
solar radiation does. The minimum solar radiation level over 4
days is 0.18 kWh. During the same 4-day period, the meas-
ured amount of PV power generation was 80 kWh, the predic-
DOI 10.1007/s12206-021-0140-0
Table 5. Prediction performance of single LSTM and multiple LSTM mod-
els.
Hidden units RMSE (kWh) Cv(RMSE) (%)
Single LSTM 500 38.6 13.8
Multiple LSTM 500 x 3 37.1 13.2
Fig. 12. Comparison of measured and predicted solar PV generation.
tion value of the single LSTM model was 157.3 kWh, and the
prediction value of the multiple LSTM model was 147.2 kWh.
Although a slight difference was observed between the meas-
ured and predicted values, the error rate rarely occurred in the
last two days. On the other hand, the maximum amount of
solar radiation was 0.96 kWh. During the same 4-day period,
the measured value of solar PV power generation was
488 kWh, the prediction value of the single-LSTM model was
484.4 kWh and the prediction value of the multi-LSTM model
was 468 kWh. An accurate prediction was made, with a mini-
mal error rate between the measured and predicted values.
Finally, with regard to the averages of solar radiation and solar
PV power generation, the average value of solar radiation over
the 4 days was 0.59 kWh. The measured solar PV power gen-
eration was 303.3 kWh, the single LSTM prediction was
285.1 kWh and the multiple LSTM prediction was 286.2 kWh.
This mean value was similar for the measured and predicted
values.
Fig. 12 shows a comparison of the three graphs: the actually
measured solar PV power generation and solar PV power
generation predicted by the single-LSTM and multi-LSTM
models. The graph shows that the measured and predicted
graphs move in a similar pattern, although errors are found at
some intervals. The single-LSTM model and multi-LSTM mod-
els moved in almost the same pattern. A Cv(RMSE) of the
single LSTM showed an error rate of 13.8 %, while the
Cv(RMSE) of the multiple LSTM showed a 13.2 % error rate.
At high solar PV power generation, the multi-LSTM model was
able to predict more accurately than the single-LSTM model.
Although no noticeable difference was found, the multi-LSTM
model showed a slightly improved Cv(RMSE) and a prediction
closer to the measured value. Table 5 summarizes the learning
performance of the two LSTM models.
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 Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology 35 (2) 2021
5. Conclusion
This study developed an RNN model for predicting solar PV
power generation using the neural network toolbox function of
MATLAB. Accuracy was verified through Cv(RMSE) analysis.
To implement the RNN model, we conducted modeling by
using the LSTM technique, which can overcome the disadvan-
tage of conventional RNN that makes accurate prediction diffi-
cult due to a decrease in the gradient as learning time in-
creases. The measured data used in this study’s predictive
modeling were hourly data from 09:00 to 17:00 from January 1
to July 9. The results are as follows.
An optimized model was developed through various optimi-
zation processes, such as normalization, classification of learn-
ing data, and setting of layer options. The number of hidden
neurons of the predictive model of this study was set to 500,
and the hidden layers were set to 1 and 3 layers. In addition,
because finding an appropriate learning rate for repetitive pre-
diction of usage is important, four learning rate adjustments —
0.05, 0.01, 0.005, and 0.001 — were tested to determine the
optimal learning rate. Finally, the simulation was conducted by
setting the initial learning rate at 0.05, which is the most suit-
able for this predictive model.
Based on the data from January to July, the total solar radia-
tion and solar PV power generation were compared using the
May hourly data. As the amount of solar radiation changes, the
amount of solar PV power generation changes in the same
pattern. The minimum and maximum values of solar radiation
were 1.05 kWh and 0.01 kWh, and the solar PV power genera-
tion values were 545 kWh and 1.4 kWh. From 20:00 to 06:00,
both solar radiation and solar PV power generation were
0 kWh.
As a result of comparing the measured value of the solar PV
power generation with the predicted value of the single-layer
model, Cv(RMSE) was 13.8 %. This result indicates that the
larger the amount of solar PV power generation, the lower the
accuracy of the predictive model. The solar PV power genera-
tion was predicted using a model composed of three layers to
overcome the error of the single-layer model; the Cv(RMSE)
was 13.2 %. Although no significant difference was observed,
as the solar PV power generation increased, the prediction was
more accurate and the error rate was slightly improved.
Finally, as a result of comparing the PV power generation
with solar radiation, both the measured solar PV power genera-
tion and the predicted values (from single and multiple LSTM)
fluctuate in the same pattern as the amount of solar radiation
increases and decreases. A comparison of the two LSTM
models showed that the multi-LSTM model produced accurate
predictions with a slightly improved Cv(RMSE) than the single-
LSTM model.
Therefore, the optimized control process of urban energy
systems will be included in future research. By predicting the
energy supply of various renewable energy sources other than
solar PV power generation, countries can eventually establish
a stable energy supply system directly linked with energy stor-
802
DOI 10.1007/s12206-021-0140-0
age facilities and smart grids to maximize energy efficiency by
matching the energy flow between demand and supply re-
sources.
Acknowledgments
This study was partly supported by a Korea Institute of En-
ergy Technology Evaluation and Planning (KETEP) grant
funded by the Korean government (MOTIE) (2019271010015B,
Development of Eco-friendly Energy Supply Resource Control
System). This work was supported by a Korea University Grant
(No. K1921431).
Nomenclature-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
S : RNN model predicted
M : Measured
Ninterval : Number of measured data
Aperiod : Average of measurement period
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Minkyeong Park is pursuing a Master’s
degree at the Department of Architecture,
College of Engineering, Korea University,
Seoul, Korea.
Kwang Ho Lee is an Associate Profes-
sor of the Department of Architecture,
College of Engineering, Korea University,
Seoul, Korea. He received his Ph.D.
from the School of Architecture from the
University of Illinois at Urbana-Cham-
paign. His research interests include
advanced HVAC system control.
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