Chapter 2: Exercise Questions

1. A two component parallel system is in failure state (both components are failed)
4% of time. Component 1 is in failed state 8% of time whereas component 2 is in
failed state for 6% of the time. Compute different probabilities.

2. A smoke detector is routinely inspected. 75% of the detectors found inoperative

had experienced power surge, and 15% of those found in operating condition had
experienced a power surge. 25% detectors inspected have failed. What is the
probability of a detector failing giving its experiences a power surge?

3. A system has 5 independent and identical components of which each component

has random chances of 1 in 100 failing. If failure follow binomial distribution.
What is the probability of two failures?

4. A pump may fail 3 times in a year and restored back in operation as new.
Assuming that these failures are random and discrete following Poisson
distribution. What is the probability of no more than two failures in a year?

5. A motor operated relief valve opens and closes intermittently on demand to

control the coolant level in an industrial process. An auxiliary battery is used to
provide power for the approximately ½ percent of the time when there are plant
power outages. The demand failure probability of the valve is found to be 3x10-5
when operated from the plant power and 9x10-5 when operated from the battery
pack. Calculate the demand failure probability assuming that the number of
demands is independent of the power source. Is the increase due to the battery
pack operation significant?

6. The prevalence of disease in the general population is 1 in 10,1000. The

sensitivity of the test for the disease (which is probability that the test is positive
when applied to a person) is 99.9%. The specificity of the test (which is the
probability that the test is negative if the person does not have the disease) is
99.99%. If a person from the population with no other knows risk factors test
positive for the disease, what is the chance that the person actually has the
disease?

Reflective Questions

1. State whether the following statements are true or false.

(a). Reliability is a probability and hence its maximum value is one.

(b). MTBF is applied to repairable systems and MTTF to non-repairable systems.
(c). The cumulative distribution function is a decreasing function.
(d). For a certain event, the probability must be equal to one.

2. What is uncertainty, and what are the techniques to model uncertainty?

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 3. Binomial and Poisson distributions are discrete probability distributions. Under
what conditions you would apply them?

4. If the number of accident occurrences on the TransCanada Highway per year can
be represented by a Poisson distribution, how will you estimate the probability of
having five accidents occurring in the year 2010?

Solutions to Exercise Questions

1. Let the component 1 in failed state be the event - A

Let the component 2 in failed state be the event - B

Probability of A and B , P( A & B) = P( A  B) = 0.04

P( A) = 0.08
P( B) = 0.06
Probability of at least one component fails,
P( AorB) = P( A  B) = P( A) + P( B) − P( A  B)
= 0.08 + 0.06 − 0.04 = 0.10
P( B  A) 0.04
P( B / A) = = = 0.50
P( A) 0.08
P( A  B) 0.04
P( A / B) = = = 0.67
P( B) 0.06

2. Let A be event detector has failed

Let B be the event detector has experienced a power surge

Therefore, P( A) = 0.25
P( B / A) = 0.75
P( B / AC ) = 0.15
P( A / B) = ?
P( B / A) P( A)
P( A / B) =
P( B / A) P( A) + P( B / A C ) P( AC )
0.75 * 0.25
= = 0.625
0.75 * 0.25 + 0.15 * 0.75

3. Binomial distribution with, p = 1 / 100 = 0.01 , n = 5

 n
p( x) =   p x (1 − p)n − x
 x

2
 5
p(2) =  (0.01) 2 (1 − 0.01) 5 − 2
 2
 5!  2 5 − 2 = 9.703 *10 − 4
= (0.01) (1 − 0.01)
 2!*3! 

4. Poisson distribution with,  = 3 / year

The probability of no more than 2 failures = Pr( X  2)
2
e−  x
Pr( X  2) = 
x =0 x!

e − 3 30 e − 3 31 e − 3 3 2
= + +
0! 1! 2!

= e − 3 [1 + 3 + 9 / 2] = 0.4233

5. Let us consider the events,

A - Power outage
B - On demand valve failure

Then, P( A) = 0.005 , P( AC ) = (1 − 0.005) = 0.995 , and P( B) = ?

Also, we have, P( B / A) = 9 *10 −5 , P( B / A C ) = 3 * 10 −5 , Therefore,

P( B) = P( B / A) P( A) + P( B / A C ) P( A C )

= 9 * 10 −5 * 0.005 + 3 *10 −5 * 0.995

P( B) = 3.03 *10 −5
It is not very significant.

6. Let us consider the events,

A - Having a disease
B - Tested positive

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Then, P( A) = = 9.9 *10 −6 and P( A / B) = ?
101000
Therefore, P( AC ) = 1 − 9.9 *10 −6 = 0.99999

P( B / A) = 0.999
P( B C / AC ) = 0.9999

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P( B / AC ) = 1 − 0.9999 = 1*10 −4

P( B / A) P( A)
P( A / B) =
P( B / A) P( A) + P( B / AC ) P( A C )

0.999 * 9.9 *10 −6

= = 0.09 = 9%
0.999 * 9.9 *10 −6 + 1 *10 − 4 * 0.99999