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04_Constant Failure Rates_Problems1
04_Constant Failure Rates_Problems1
• What is the probability of battery failure occurring within the first 2 operating
hours?
• If failed batteries are immediately replaced, what is the probability of more
than one failure occurring during the first 5 operating hours.
Reflective Questions
2. Consider a piping system having CFR, where two identical pipes are carrying
natural gas (designed to operate at 100 barg) to the refining unit. One is operating
1
for 25 years and the other is recently replaced (with a new one). If there is a
pressure surge of 120 barg in the system, which one will fail first?
4. How will you determine the number of spare parts in inventory analysis if the
time between failures is exponential?
1 = 0.001 , 2 = 0.005
3 = 0.0007 , 4 = 0.0025
5 = 0.00001
n
s = i
(i). System failure rate, i =1
= 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 = 0.00921
1 1
(ii). System MTTF, MTTFs = = = 108.58days
s 0.00921
(iii). Design life for a system reliability of 0.99,
2
ti t p
eff = i + o o +
t o + ti t o + ti t o + ti
40 20 0.03
= * 0.0002 + * 0.01 + = 0.033467 / hour
60 60 1
− eff *t
Reliability for 24 hrs of operation, R (t ) = e
R(24) = e−0.033467*24 = 0.4479
1
3. (i). CFR System, MTTF = = 5hrs
1 1 1 1
1 = = and 2 = =
MTTF1 5 MTTF2 5
s = 1 + 2 = 2 / 5 = 0.40
Reliability for first 2 hrs of operation, R(2) = e−s t
R(2) = e−0.40*2 = 0.4493
Therefore, failure probability, F (2) = 1 − R(2)
F (2) = 1 − 0.4493 = 0.5506
(ii). If the failed batteries are immediately replaced, then the failure follows a
Poisson distribution. Therefore,
R(t ) = 1 − (1 − e − t ) 2 = 2e − t − e −2t
3
R(720) = 2e−0.00034*720 − e−0.00068*720 = 0.95285
1.5 1.5
MTTF = = = 4411.7hrs
0.00034
For a single component, R1 (720) = e−0.00034*720 = 0.7828 , 22% increase in
reliability due to redundancy.
f (t ) dR(t ) 1
Hazard rate function, (t ) = =− .
R(t ) dt R(t )
(1 − e− t ) 0.00034(1 − e −0.00034t )
(t ) = =
(1 − 0.5e − t ) (1 − 0.50e − 0.00034t )
5. The expected number of failures over the life (10 yrs) of machine (based on
Poisson distribution) = t = 0.05 *10 = 0.50
s
The probability of s or fewer failures over 10 yrs, Rs (t ) = pn (t )
n =0
2
Therefore, the probability of 2 or fewer failures in 10 yrs, R2 (t ) = pn (t )
n =0
−0.5
2
e 0.5n
R2 (t ) =
n=0 n!
0.25
= e − 0.5 [1 + 0.50 + ] = 0.9856
2
Let Y3 be the time of third failure. Then, Y3 has a gamma distribution with k = 3
and = 0.05 . Therefore, the expected time to obtain 3 failures is 3 / 0.05 = 60 yr .
The probability that the third failure will occur within 10 yr is obtained from,
k −1
(t ) i
FYk (t ) = 1 − e − t , where, k = 3
i =0 i!