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Extreme Wildfire Events
and Disasters
Root Causes and New Management
Strategies
Edited by
Fantina Tedim
Faculty of Arts, University of Porto, Porto,
Portugal; Charles Darwin University, Darwin,
Australia
Vittorio Leone
Faculty of Agriculture, University of Basilicata
(retired), Potenza, Italy
Tara K. McGee
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences,
University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada
Elsevier
Radarweg 29, PO Box 211, 1000 AE Amsterdam, Netherlands
The Boulevard, Langford Lane, Kidlington, Oxford OX5 1GB, United Kingdom
50 Hampshire Street, 5th Floor, Cambridge, MA 02139, United States
Practitioners and researchers must always rely on their own experience and knowledge in
evaluating and using any information, methods, compounds, or experiments described
herein. In using such information or methods they should be mindful of their own safety
and the safety of others, including parties for whom they have a professional responsibility.
To the fullest extent of the law, neither the Publisher nor the authors, contributors, or
editors, assume any liability for any injury and/or damage to persons or property as a matter
of products liability, negligence or otherwise, or from any use or operation of any methods,
products, instructions, or ideas contained in the material herein.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
A catalog record for this book is available from the Library of Congress
Holy Hardin Public Affairs Science and Technology (PAST) Fusion Cell, Argonne
National Laboratory, Lemont, IL, United States
Vittorio Leone Faculty of Agriculture, University of Basilicata (retired), Potenza,
Italy
Helena Madureira Centre of Studies of Geography and Spatial Planning (CEGOT),
University of Porto, Portugal
aes Faculty of Arts and Humanities, University of Porto, Porto,
Catarina G. Magalh~
Portugal
Sarah McCaffrey Rocky Mountain Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Fort
Collins, CO, United States
Tara K. McGee Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of
Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada
Antonio Oliveira Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental
and Biological Sciences (CITAB), University of Tras-os-Montes and Alto Douro, Vila
Real, Portugal
Joana Parente Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and
Biological Sciences (CITAB), University of Tras-os-Montes and Alto Douro, Vila
Real, Portugal
Mario G. Pereira Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental
and Biological Sciences (CITAB), University of Tras-os-Montes and Alto Douro, Vila
Real, Portugal; Instituto Dom Luiz, University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal
Luís M. Ribeiro Forest Fire Research Centre of ADAI, University of Coimbra,
Coimbra, Portugal
Dominic Royé University of Santiago de Compostela, Santiago de Compostela,
Spain
Fantina Tedim Faculty of Arts and Humanities, University of Porto, Porto,
Portugal; Charles Darwin University, Darwin, NWT, Australia
Domingos X. Viegas Forest Fire Research Centre of ADAI, University of Coimbra,
Coimbra, Portugal
Gavriil Xanthopoulos Hellenic Agricultural Organization “Demeter”, Institute of
Mediterranean Forest Ecosystems, Athens, Greece
Acknowledgments
This work was prepared in the frame of the project ‘FIREXTR e Prevent and prepare
society for extreme fire events: The challenge of seeing the “forest” and not just the
“trees”’ (FCT Ref: PTDC/ATPGEO/0462/2014), co-financed by the European
Regional Development Fund (ERDF) through the COMPETE 2020 e Operational
Program Competitiveness and Internationalization (POCI Ref: 16702) and national
funds by the Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT), Portugal.
Extreme wildfire events: The
definition 1
Fantina Tedim 1,2 , Vittorio Leone 3 , Michael Coughlan 4 , Christophe Bouillon 5 ,
Gavriil Xanthopoulos 6 , Dominic Royé 7 , Fernando J.M. Correia 1 ,
Carmen Ferreira 1
1
Faculty of Arts and Humanities, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal; 2Charles Darwin
University, Darwin, NWT, Australia; 3Faculty of Agriculture, University of Basilicata (retired),
Potenza, Italy; 4Institute for a Sustainable Environment, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR,
United States; 5National Research Institute of Science and Technology for Environment and
Agriculture (IRSTEA), Risks Ecosystems Environment Vulnerability Resilience (RECOVER)
research unit, Aix-en-Provence, France; 6Hellenic Agricultural Organization “Demeter”,
Institute of Mediterranean Forest Ecosystems, Athens, Greece; 7University of Santiago de
Compostela, Santiago de Compostela, Spain
The series of ferocious bushfires continued with 1st February 1898 Red Tuesday that
burned out 260,000 ha, caused the death of 12 people, and destroyed more than
2000 buildings in South Gippsland; then in 1926 in Gippsland, Eastern Victoria Black
Sunday, with 60 fatalities and widespread damage to farms, homes, and forests.
Finally, the series peaked with the 1939 Black Friday blaze in Victoria, which killed
71 people, destroyed more than 650 structures, and burned 1.5 to two million hectares.
Many years later, in 1983, in the Ash Wednesday bushfires, in Victoria and South
Australia, more than 22 fires burned about 393,000 ha and killed 75 people [12].
Then in 2009, Black Saturday fires become the worst in Australia’s history with
500 injured and 173 fatalities, far exceeding the loss of life from any previous bush-
fires. For southeastern Australia (one of the three most fire-prone landscapes on Earth
[13]), bushfires exhibit an abrupt increase in the frequency of pyrocumuloninbus
(pyroCb; according to the World Meteorological Organization, pyrocumuloninbus is
the unofficial name for cumulonimbus flammagenitus) events over the last decade
[10] and a bigger value of fire intensity and total power in GW [14].
The history of wildfire in the United States is peppered with stories of disaster and
destruction leading back into the 19th century [15]. From 1871 to 1918, wildfires in the
Midwestern states sparked by steam-powered machinery and fueled by the waste of
early industrial logging frequently engulfed whole settlements. Even if lack of evi-
dence prevents us from defining the biophysical severity of these historic fire disasters,
the contemporary context of severe wildfire disasters is nevertheless tied to this history
as a consequence of the fire suppression policy that emerged in that period. Toward the
end of this period (e.g., w1910), wildfire suppression policy became doctrine in the
United States as the federal government set out to protect its new National Forests
from fire. This proved especially challenging in the Western US where forests are
prone to large, stand replacing fires. Perhaps the first well-documented extreme fire
in the United States is the 1933 Tillamook Burn. The fire started in hot and dry weather
in locations characterized by carelessly left logging slash and burned 16,000 ha in the
first 10 days. When firefighters appeared to have it under control, the onset of gale-
force winds changed fire behavior abruptly. Within 20 hours, the fire burned an addi-
tional 97,000 ha. This fire produced a pyroCb cloud 12.9 km high [15]. Firefighters
were overwhelmed and helpless in their efforts to stop the blaze. It was only extin-
guished two weeks later by heavy rain. The burnt-over landscape of standing dead
trees provided fuel for additional catastrophic fires over the following 20 years. The
burn also left its legacy in the fire suppression landscape serving as the impetus for
the 10 a.m. policy whereby it became policy on National Forest to extinguish fires
by 10 a.m. the morning after they were reported.
Currently, in many parts of the United States, wildfires are fueled by a legacy of fire
suppression practices. These have contributed to the build-up of dense fuels in many
forests after the disturbance of old growth forests by logging [4,7]. Recent powerful
and disastrous wildfires in states as far apart as Tennessee (2016) and California
(2017e18) have also been attributed mainly to extreme weather events, specifically
co-occurrence of drought and high winds [3,9]. The 2016 Chimney Tops 2 Fire in Ten-
nessee killed 14 people and destroyed 1684 structures. The blaze was fueled by
drought conditions, 70 years of fire suppression, and gusting high winds. In the
October of 2017, the Nuns Fire in Northern California killed 42 people, destroyed
Extreme wildfire events: The definition 5
nearly 1355 buildings, and burned over 225,000 ha [16]. The Nuns Fire was started by
wind-damaged electrical and gas utilities and spread very fast fanned by seasonal
winds called the “Diablo winds,” with gusts of up to 110 km h 1. In July and August
of 2018, the Carr Fire burned over 92,000 ha. It destroyed 1604 structures and has been
blamed for at least eight deaths, including three firefighters [16]. Finally, the Camp
Fire ignited November 8, 2018, became California’s most destructive and deadliest
wildfire. Fueled by 20 m per second winds, the fire burned 40,000 ha in the first
two days, and the fire had burned over 62,862 ha; it destroyed 13,696 residences
and 4821 other structures, and killed at least 85 people in and around the town of Para-
dise, California [17].
Canada, similar to the United States, has its own long engagement with infrequent,
large, high-intensity, crown fires [5]. Their occurrence is an increasing concern [8].
The most destructive wildfires in terms of loss of lives and structures occurred between
1825 and 1938 [8]. In 1911, 1916, and 1922 fires destroyed multiple towns in Ontario,
killing more than 500 people [18]. The most significant loss of life occurred during the
1916 Matheson fire with probably 223 fatalities [19]. A reduced number of structures
have been destroyed since the 1938 Dance Township Fire [19]. In 2003, in British
Columbia, more than 338 structures and businesses were destroyed or affected, and
three operational staff lost their lives [20]. In 2011, the Flat Top Complex Wildfires
destroyed about 340 homes, six buildings with several apartments, three churches,
and 10 businesses, as well as affected the government center [8]. Sometimes these
extreme fires are characterized by long duration and substantial impacts. The devas-
tating Fort McMurray Horse River Wildfire in Alberta, which started on May 1st,
2016, and was declared out after 15 months, forced some 90,000 to flee the city of
Fort McMurray and nearby communities in the Regional Municipality of Wood Buf-
falo and destroyed 3244 residential and other buildings [21]. It burned and destroyed
some 589,552 ha of forest [22].
In the last few decades, this reality emerged in several countries, most notably in
Southern Europe and Southern America, including Greece (2007 and 2018), Portugal
(2003, 2005, and 2017), and Chile (2017). Chile and Portugal experienced, in 2017,
the worst fire season ever recorded, with unprecedented events of extreme fire
behavior. The 2017 fires in Chile were of unusual size and severity for the austral Med-
iterranean regions, affecting a total of 529,974 ha; four individual fires burned over
40,000 ha of land. They affected large extensions of exotic forest plantations of Pinus
radiata and Eucalyptus [23].
In Portugal, after the disastrous fire seasons of 2003 and 2005, 2017 brought the
most catastrophic season ever with 112 fatalities and wildfires that reached fireline in-
tensities (FLIs) of 80,000 kWm 1, rate of spread (ROS) of 15.2 km h 1, and several
episodes of downdraft that explain most of the loss of lives [24,25]. In Pedrog~ao
Grande Fire (June 2017) most of the people (45 out of 66) died on the roads, overtaken
by the sudden, scaring, and extraordinary fire manifestations spreading with amazing
speed in a continuous artificial forest cover of Pinus and Eucalyptus.
In another Mediterranean country, Greece, the fire problem has been worsening
steadily, in spite of increased investments in firefighting personnel and resources. After
17 fires caused fatalities in 1993, and 16 fatalities in 2000, in 2007 Greece faced its
worst fire season in terms of burned area accompanied by numerous fatalities. In
6 Extreme Wildfire Events and Disasters
that dry year, and following three heat waves, the conditions became explosive be-
tween August 23 and 27 when a series of almost simultaneous very aggressive fires
in Peloponnese, Attica, and Evia escaped initial attack, overwhelming the firefighting
forces. They brought the burned area to approximately 270,000 ha of forest, olive
groves and farmland, more than 5 times the average. The death toll reached 78 people.
More than 100 villages and settlements were affected, and more than 3000 homes and
other structures were destroyed. The financial damage by some estimates reached five
billion US$ [26,27].
A second wildfire disaster hit Greece in 2018, in a seemingly “easy” fire season,
with unusually high precipitation until mid-July. On July 23, the first day with pre-
dicted very high fire danger due to expected extremely strong westerly winds, an
intense fire started at mid-day in western Attica, approximately 50 km west of Athens.
While firefighting efforts were concentrated there, a second fire started at 16:41 in
Eastern Attica, 20 km northeast of Athens. Fanned by a west-northwest wind of
45e70 km h 1 with gusts that exceeded even 90 km h 1, the fire first hit the settle-
ment of Neos Voutzas and then, moving with approximately 4.0 km h 1, spread
through the settlement of Mati, burning most homes in its path until it reached the
sea. Neither the ground forces that were slow to respond nor the aerial resources
that had to face the extreme wind could do much to limit the disaster. Many people
who tried to escape by running toward the sea were trapped by the fire on the steep
cliff above the water and lost their life. There were also fatalities among the hundreds
of people who managed to reach the water, either due to the effects of heat and smoke
or due to drowning. Although the burned area was only 1431 ha, 100 people lost their
lives, making this Eastern Attica Fire the second-deadliest wildfire in the 21st century,
after the Kilmore East Fire in 2009 in Victoria (Australia) that killed 120 people [28].
In North Europe, extraordinary wildfires can assume large size in areas normally
characterized by the relative absence of fires. For instance, the wildfire of V€astmanland
in central Sweden that started on July 31st, 2014, burned 13,800 ha of forest mainly
covered by wind-fallen trees. The wildfire caused one fatality and required French
and Italian water bombers to come and help fight the fire. More than 1000 people
and 1700 animals (cattle and sheep) were evacuated, and thousands of people were
prepared for evacuation when the fire approached towns. Approximately, 1.4 million
cubic meters of wood and 71 buildings were damaged or destroyed by the fire [29].
The growing incidence of such large-scale and disastrous fire events around the
globe makes it important to develop a method to classify and define them. Doing so
is an essential precursor to the development of a common international approach to
their study and to the development of the risk reduction and response capabilities
required to manage risk that will only increase in the coming decades, namely due
to climate change.
Rapid
Capacity Extreme FLI FRP ROS Spotting Simul- evolution/ Size of Duration Fire Impacts Relief Fuel Wind Wind Atmospheric Distance
of control phenomenab & FL taneous sudden burned severity efforts load and speed direction instability to WUI
Category Terms ignition changes area structure change
Firestorm X
Area fires X
Sudden Blow-up X X X X X X
changes
Conflagration X X
of behavior
Eruptive fire X X
Generalized blaze X X X X
flash
Mass fires X
Mass blazes X
Relevant Catastrophic fires X X
impacts
Disaster-fire X X
Disasters X X
Disastrous fires X X
Social disaster X X
Socially disastrous X X
fires
Natural disaster X X
And also extreme wildfire, extreme bushfire event, extreme fire event, extreme fire.
a
It includes high level of energy, chaos, nonlinearity, mass spotting, eruptive fire behavior, vorticity-driven lateral spread, violent pyroconvective activity.
b
10 Extreme Wildfire Events and Disasters
An EWE is a very complex process, and the thresholds used in its definition result
from a deep analysis of the state of fire science. EWEs are characterized not just by
their scale but also by their erratic and unpredictable behavior. The latter reflects
how, as fires become more extreme, their complex patterns of interaction with the
ecological, forest, agricultural, and built environments influence their behavior [32];
each of its physical attributes is related and influence each other in a concrete way
and creates feedbacks. However, if the fire is above 10,000 kWm 1 but the ROS is
40 m min 1 instead of over 50 m min 1, as proposed in the definition, can we still
classify the fire as EWE? The answer is affirmative because the most socially relevant
EWE attribute is the FLI that precludes any effort to control the fire, and in the example
presented, the value is above the threshold. Future measurements of EWEs will help to
validate and to adapt the selected thresholds.
EWEs are increasingly frequent events that exhibit non-instantaneous extreme
behavior for at least several hours, but normal fires [31] too can have punctual man-
ifestations of extreme fire behavior (e.g., fire whirls) because of the combination of
several conditions, for instance, the influence of topography; they can create local sit-
uations that explain the entrapment of firefighter crews with tragic end.
From the natural hazards field, it has been shown that risk perception is influenced
by the physical characteristics of the hazard [33]; thus, a good understanding of EWEs
is fundamental to decrease their impacts.
A complete understanding of the EWE definition is easier if we discuss its rationale,
valorizing: The physical properties of EWE; the duration of an EWE; the size; the con-
sequences; and the fact that an EWE does not necessarily create a disaster. Fig. 1.2 helps
to make clear this discussion; it depicts how physical properties of fires interact with
human dimensions, i.e., human actions, residential development patterns (RDPs), and
WildlandeUrban Interface (WUI) characteristics, in the context of socioecological sys-
tems [34], where wildfires occur, thus influencing fire behavior and its consequences.
Figure 1.2 EWE definition rationale. The red bars represent fires with different FLI. The longer
the bar, the higher the intensity. The impacts of fires result from the interaction and feedbacks
between the physical characteristics of fires and the vulnerability of exposed elements. A
wildfire becomes an EWE when its features exceed the capacity of control (10,000 kWm 1).
The letters a, b, c, and d, respectively, indicate (a) fire under control capacity (i.e. a normal fire)
but affecting a vulnerable area provoking a disaster; (b) an EWE turning into a disaster; (c) an
EWE; and (d) a wildfire below the capacity of control (i.e. a normal fire).
12 Extreme Wildfire Events and Disasters
spotting; however, when present, it is further described by frequency, distance, and ac-
celeration of spot fires. Less frequently used fire properties are smoke and radiant heat
that are the main killers [35] and convective phenomena that increase the extremeness
of the event. Whereas convective activity is included in the definition, local fire
weather, smoke, and radiant heat are not considered because of the impossibility to
establish thresholds that could have worldwide representativeness.
FLI is the pivotal fire behavior parameter and can be determined from measure-
ments or observations of ROS and fuel consumption [36] or alternatively from FL, us-
ing simple equations [37]. FLI influences the capacity of control, and the value of
10,000 kWm 1 is currently accepted as the threshold of impossibility of control
[38e40]. Beyond 10,000 kWm 1, it is well accepted that even heavy water bombers
are ineffective [41], and fire control is not possible with current day technology and
technical resources [42]. With an increasing FLI, the quantity of water required as
an extinguishing agent to contain the flames grows. In addition, fire intensity influ-
ences the pattern of fire severity throughout the affected area [43,44] and the resistance
of the structures, consequently acting on the losses and the number of fatalities.
ROS is important to firefighting strategy and fire size [45] affecting the capacity of
suppression and the ability to move away from a fire safely [2]. ROS is dependent on
the type, load and continuity of fuel, topography, and weather conditions (mainly wind
velocity). The higher the ROS, the wider the spread of wildfire, thus increasing the
perimeter of flames [46]. ROS can reach values of about 20 km h 1 [47]; it is consid-
ered extreme when it is 3 km h 1 [47], and is often augmented by massive spotting.
ROS affects deployment of crews and resources, the efficacy of the suppression oper-
ations with cascade effects on the impacts induced by the arrival of a fire front: Deci-
sions to stay and defend assets or leave, and evacuation of people and animals. This
shows the importance of societal and community responses. The more the people
have acted to prepare land/properties (e.g., community wide defensible spaces can
create fire breaks to slow fire spread, increase efficacy of suppression), the more the
time crews will have to respond and reduce localized risk; this can make it easier
for them to plan where they can deploy limited resources.
FL influences the ability of a fire to cross barriers and so spread in discontinuous
fuels [48], reach canopies [49], and affect radiation load on buildings [2,50].
Spotting activity (i.e., the ignition of new fire starts outside the fire perimeter by
firebrands of bark, needles, twigs, pine cones, acorns, moss, or larger embers launched
from a primary fire, conveyed by the convective column and landing on receptive fuels
[51e53]) acts to carry fire across gaps in vegetation (firebreaks, agricultural fields,
etc.) and to ignite buildings [50,54]. In EWEs the powerful convection column, the
strong prevailing wind and/or the hot downdrafts from the column and the preheated
dead fuels result in spotting distances sometimes exceeding 10 or more kilometers,
rendering all preventive efforts to create horizontal fuel discontinuity useless
[2,52,53,55,56]. Rapid acceleration of spot fires, due to high wind and very dry fuels,
can sharply increase the risk of firefighter entrapment [56]. In the presence of species
with loose fibrous bark (e.g., E. obliqua and E. macrorhyncha) a concentrated short
distance spotting is the main fire propagation mechanism, while the firebrands respon-
sible for long-range spotting are long ribbons of decorticating bark of some smooth-
Extreme wildfire events: The definition 13
Grande (2017, Portugal), the fire took just 2 hours to assume the characteristics of an
EWE, although the maximum intensity occurred about 6 hours after the fire outbreak;
most of the losses and fatalities occurred in less than an hour [25].
The period when the fire exhibits violent behavior and when most damage occurs is
a relatively short interval, although these periods can recur in close succession [64]. In
the Tasmania fire of 7 February 1967, in just 5 hours, 226,500 ha, or 85% of the total
area of 264,000 ha, burned causing extensive damage. The remaining 36,000 ha
burned over a period of several weeks afterward [65].
EWEs can persist over prolonged periods of time, but this cannot be a defining char-
acteristic, as it strongly depends on the continuity and amount of fuels and persistence
of favorable weather conditions. Black Friday fire in Australia (w36,000 kWm 1),
1939, is considered one of the worst events in the country but did not burn for a
long time because of sudden weather changes, namely rainfall [66]. Kilmore East
fire (2009, Victoria, Australia) burned nearly 100,000 ha and destroyed more than
2200 buildings in the first 12 h. The fire merged with the Murrindindi fire, burning
approximately 400,000 ha over a period of 3 weeks [56].
As the duration of a wildfire is variable even in the same country because it is
dependent on the fire environment, it is not possible to determine a threshold that could
be used worldwide.
example of a wildfire that provokes huge destruction and loss of lives, while it only
burned 1431 ha because it stopped when reached the sea.
Finally, size can also be the result of wildland fire use, which is an accepted fire
management practice in areas where naturally caused wildfires are not a threat to as-
sets, homes, or people as it happens in the United States.
As fire sizes vary tremendously around the world, selection of an absolute fire size
for EWE at world level is difficult to establish or even impossible, as it is place-
dependent.
Gill (1998) [84] proposed a classification based on seven categories of fire intensity
to facilitate the communication of the nature of fire variation, the highest one being
between 35,000 and 100,000 kWm 1, as it was supposed the fires could not go
over level 7. The recent values of intensity of about 150,000 kWm 1 provided by Tol-
hurst [63] for Victorian fires in Australia, 2009, confirm that EWEs are unpredictable
phenomena that can evolve to unknown limits, especially considering the influence of
climate change.
In France, a prototype of wildfires classification proposed by Lampin-Cabaret et al.
[95] is based on intrinsic physical measurement of the phenomenon and its conse-
quences. It has a posteriori purpose and no predictive character; it classifies fires
depending on the effects and damage found on standard elements of the fire environ-
ment (vegetation, people, buildings, and infrastructures) but does not characterize the
level of risk of forest fire hazard, nor the economic consequences of the event.
More recently, exploratory studies were conducted to support the development of a
bushfire severity scale to provide a warning for potential losses of properties and human
lives [6]. These studies recognize the importance of fire power to explain its destructive
potential, as a stronger relationship exists between community loss and the power of a
fire [6,14,96]. In addition, these studies demonstrate that the current fire danger scale
used to assess the probability for fire occurrence and the spread dynamics as well as
the difficulty of control do not adequately reflect the destructive potential of a fire [6].
The wildfire classification proposed by Tedim et al. [31] recognizes the importance
of fire power to explain the losses, but it does not only focus on FLI, adopting a multi-
criteria approach to make the scale precise, objective, and operational. The parameters
used to create this classification are real-time measurable behavior parameters (FLI,
ROS, and FL) and real-time observable manifestations of extreme fire behavior (pres-
ence of pyroCb and downdrafts, spotting activity, and distance) [31]. It presents seven
categories of fires, four labeled as normal fires (categories one to four) and three at the
highest end (categories five to seven) that cover different categories of EWEs. Whereas
the current classifications of some natural hazards are descriptive (e.g., Richter and
Mercalli scales for earthquakes) or prospective (e.g., Saffir Simpson scale for hurri-
canes), the classification by Tedim et al. [31] is both descriptive and prospective.
One of the possible criticisms is whether the classification proposed by Tedim et al.
[31] develops a holistic view of EWEs as a socioecological phenomenon; it seems to
be based solely on measurable fire behavior parameters and suppression difficulty. The
second sentence of the EWE definition includes statements related to the potential
impact of wildfires which reveal it as a key aspect of the definition. People can easily
understand that a fire of category 7 can provoke more losses and injuries than one of
category 2, applying the same logic of other natural hazards classifications. Consid-
ering that many times people need to face a fire by themselves, it is crucial that citizens
are aware about the threats and the potential consequences to protect themselves in
fires with different intensities.
To improve the classification by Tedim et al. [31], in this chapter we have enhanced
it by integrating the multiple fire attack mechanisms (i.e., smoke, radiant heat, flames,
spotting, and wind) and their potential consequences to people, crews, and assets, in
each of the seven categories of fires (Table 1.2). The proposed integration is not based
Table 1.2 Wildfire classification integrating potential physical and psychological consequences.
Physical Psychological
Normal fires 1 Null to minimum. 1) Null to minimum. 2) Minor Possible but rare episodes of Low because all small fires Null to minimum. Null to minimum.
problems from lack of safety stress. include the potential to
rules compliance. escalate.
2 Minimum to medium because there is 1) Possible, but rare, minor Possible but uncommon episodes Low/moderate because of Possible but rare damage. Low to medium
generally adequate time to react. problems because there is of stress because there is time the potential of fire to burning severity.
generally adequate time to for rational thinking, although escalate.
react. 2) Problems in the case higher if people are
of inappropriate or missing unprepared or events occur
use of personal protective during the day when parents
equipment (PPE). are at work, children are at
school. Family separation and
uncertainty regarding the
location and safety of others
increase stress.
3 1) Possible accidents by inappropriate 1) Possible entrapment and 1) Sporadic episodes of stress 1) Possible occurrence of Possible but not frequent. Low to high burning
attitude and behavior concerning burnover, especially from not because of the reduced time stress due to lack of severity.
evacuation or sheltering in place. 2) observing what the fire is for rational thinking, lack of information, weaknesses
Possible injuries from direct flame doing at all times and thinking information, and the absence in the control and
contact if people are not adequately of what it will be doing next. of firefighters’ support. 2) command chain, resource
trained and prepared to face the fire 2) Problems from lack of Stress can be higher if people availability, and
by themselves. 3) Possible but rare safety rules compliance. 3) are unprepared or events occur deployment to tackle fires.
fatalities. 4) Autonomous defense Serious problems in the case during the day when parents 2) Fatigue and exhaustion
using hoses and water is possible but of inappropriate or missing are at work and children are at can increase risk.
risky, especially in the case of an use of PPE. school. Family separation and
electrical power failure (or shut-off uncertainty regarding the
by the power company) while there location and safety of others
is no back-up of petrol driven increase stress.
generators. 5) Likely inadequate
response for evacuation of disabled
or elderly people.
4 1) Major accidents may be caused by 1) The likelihood of entrapment 1) Feeling of fear, loss, or lack of 1) Possible occurrence of 1) Frequent and relevant. Heterogeneity in
inappropriate attitude and behavior and burnover increases. 2) control, anxiety, affecting the stress due to lack of Strong wind making burning severity
concerning timely evacuation or Fatal problems from lack of decision of passive or active information, weaknesses buildings more vulnerable pattern, with wide
passive sheltering. 2) Difficulty to compliance with safety rules, sheltering and timely in the control and to mechanisms of fire areas of medium to
find adequate response for especially from not knowing evacuation. 2) Diffuse command chain, and the attack. 2) Potential high.
evacuation of nonmobile people: what the fire is doing at all episodes of stress because incapacity to cope with all damages depending on
Children, disabled, or elderly times and inability to predict there is no time for rational the simultaneous fires building design and type
people. 3) High difficulty of what it will be doing next. 3) thinking and the urgency to started by spotting, and of RDPs and WUI.
autonomous defense without Fatal problems in case of take decision facing more issues with resource
adequate awareness and inappropriate or missing use extreme fire manifestations. 3) availability and
preparedness to face the aggressive of PPE. 4) Difficulty of Stress can be higher if people deployment to tackle fires.
assault of the flames. 4) circulation of vehicles from are unprepared or events occur 2) Fatigue and exhaustion
Impossibility of autonomous lack of visibility. 5) Difficulty during the day when parents can become risk factors.
defense using hoses and water in the to impossibility of aerial are at work and children are at
case of lack of electricity and the operations from smoke, wind, school. Family separation and
inexistence of petrol-driven and convective activity. 6) uncertainty regarding the
generators. 5) Injuries and fatalities Relevant problems of radiant location and safety of others
from direct flame contact. 6) heat with consequent increase stress.
Accidents on the road from smoke, exhaustion of firefighters.
flames, radiant heat, and falling
trees. 7) Difficulty of circulation by
car from lack of visibility. 8) The
survival conditions are very difficult
so requiring additional precautions.
Extreme 5 1) Difficulty to find adequate response 1) Likely entrapment and 1) Strong feeling of fear, loss or 1) Possible diffuse and 1) Massive spotting 1) Heterogeneous
wildfire for evacuation of nonmobile people: burnover danger aggravated lack of control, anxiety, persistent psychological exacerbates losses severity patterns
events Children, disabled, or elderly by spotting. 2) Sometimes namely in the case of roads cut stress due to the occurrence. 2) Potential inside fire
people. 2) Possible fatalities in case reaching a designated safety off by fast-moving fire fronts incapacity to contain the damages likely perimeter. 2)
of escape or outside houses. 3) zone in time may not be or closed by authorities, flames spread under exacerbated by building Evidence of areas
Extreme difficulty of autonomous possible. 3) Relevant incapacity to communicate the urgency of immediate design and type of RDPs/ with high burning
defense. 4) Impossibility of problems of radiant heat with with family, friends, and multiple decisions; issues WUI. 3) Strong wind severity.
autonomous defense using hoses consequent exhaustion of authorities. 2) Diffuse and with resource availability making buildings more
and water in the case of lack of firefighters. 4) Problems from persistent psychological stress and deployment to tackle vulnerable to mechanisms
electricity and the inexistence of a smoke. 5) Fatal problems from due to the fire experience and fires, and coordination of fire attack.
petrol-driven generators. 5) Relevant lack of compliance with safety consequences. 3) High stress and devolution of
problems of health from radiant heat rules. 6) Fatal problems in if people are unprepared or responsibility, situational
and smoke. 6) High difficulty of case of inappropriate or events occur during the day awareness if events
Continued
Table 1.2 Wildfire classification integrating potential physical and psychological consequences.dcont’d
Physical Psychological
circulation from lack of visibility. 7) missing use of PPE. 7) Road when parents are at work and escalate and evolve. 2)
Road accidents resulting from accidents resulting from children are at school. Family Fatigue and exhaustion
falling trees provoked by winds or falling trees provoked by separation and uncertainty can become risk factors.
by fast moving fire fronts. 8) Lack of winds. 8) Extreme difficulty of regarding the location and the 3) Issues arising from
information to support emergency communication. 9) Difficulty safety of others increase working with unfamiliar
decisions. 9) Difficulty or to impossibility of circulation stress. firefighter teams or
impossibility of communication by of terrestrial vehicles from interaction between
failure of power lines and lifelines. lack of visibility. 10) professional and volunteer
Difficulty to impossibility of firefighters.
aerial operations from smoke,
wind, and convective activity.
6 1) The survival conditions are very 1) Likely entrapment and 1) Decisions are made under 1) Diffuse and strong 1) Long-distance massive 1) Heterogeneous
extreme, but it is possible to survive burnover danger aggravated physical stress/suffering due persistence of stress also spotting. 2) Potential severity patterns
if adequately prepared. 2) Difficulty by spotting. 2) Injuries from to heat and smoke. 2) Strong because of involvement in damages likely inside fire
to find adequate response for imprudent but generous feeling of fear, total loss or rescue activities of exacerbated by building perimeter. 2)
evacuation of nonmobile people. 3) attempts to contain fire spread lack of control, anxiety, affect victims. 2) Increasing design and type of RDPs Medium- to large-
Likely fatalities in case of escape, or also due to profuse spotting. 3) evacuation or escape. 3) Stress issues with resource and WUI. 3) Wind scale extreme
outside houses or in case of passive Relevant problems of radiant increased because of the availability and making buildings more burning severity.
sheltering. 4) The erratic and heat with consequent collapse of phone and mobile deployment to tackle fires. vulnerable to fire.
unpredictable fire behavior can exhaustion of firefighters. 4) communication network with 3) Fatigue and exhaustion
preclude evacuation and make Problems provoked by smoke. subsequent incapacity of can become risk factors.
dangerous evacuation or escape. 5) 5) Fatal problems in case of communicate with family, 4) Issues arising from
Time to make decisions may be inappropriate or missing use friends, and authorities. 4) working with unfamiliar
limited and inadequate for carrying of PPE. 6) Fatal problems Lack of psychological firefighter teams or
out an order. 6) Impossibility of from noncompliance with preparedness conducting to interaction between
autonomous defense using hoses safety rules. 7) Road accidents unsafe decision-making (e.g., professional and volunteer
and water in the case of lack of resulting from falling trees last-minute evacuation) can firefighters. 5)
electricity and the inexistence of provoked by winds or by fast- precipitate the occurrence of Coordination and
petrol-driven generators. 7) Last- moving fire fronts. 8) Extreme fatalities. 5) People focus on devolution of
minute evacuation can conduct to difficulty of communication the threat and not on the responsibility, situational
dramatic end. 8) Roads are likely to and compliance with orders of choice of the adequate awareness if events
be cut off for those who were late in the control and command behavior. 6) Diffuse and escalate and evolve.
deciding and by fast-moving fire chain. 9) Difficulty to persistent psychological stress
fronts. 9) Extreme difficulty of impossibility of circulation of even for well-aware and well-
autonomous defense. 10) Very vehicles from lack of prepared people, can
relevant problems of health from visibility. 10) Difficulty to precipitate the occurrence of
radiant heat and smoke. 11) High impossibility of aerial fatalities. 7) Very high stress if
difficulty of circulation from lack of operations from smoke, wind, people are unprepared or
visibility. 12) Lack of information to and convective activity. events occur during the day
support emergency decisions. 13) when parents are at work,
Impossibility of communication children are at school. Family
caused by failure of power lines and separation and uncertainty
lifelines. 14) High probability of car regarding the location and
accidents in case of escape in very safety of others increase
difficult environmental conditions. stress.
15) Strong winds can make trees fall
and provoke car accidents or traffic
jams with loss of lives. 16) Survival
outside a shelter made very difficult
by wind and ember transport.
7 1) The survival conditions are very 1) Likely entrapment and 1) Strong feeling of fear, total loss 1) Diffuse and strong 1) Long-distance massive 1) Heterogeneous
extreme, but it is possible to survive burnover danger aggravated or lack of control, and anxiety persistence of spotting. 2) Potential severity patterns
if adequately prepared. 2) Difficulty by spotting. 2) Fast and wise affect decisions mainly for psychological stress damages exacerbated by inside fire
to find adequate response for decision-making is needed but evacuation or escape. 2) Lack because of involvement in building design and type perimeter. 2)
evacuation of nonmobile people. 3) is difficult because of poor of psychological preparedness rescue activities of of RDPs and WUI. 3) Large-scale
Maximum probability of fatalities information due to smoke, conducts to unsafe decision- victims. 2) Increasing Ember attack, and radiant extreme burning
and casualties directly caused by other adverse conditions. 3) making (e.g., last-minute issues with resource heat can induce loss of severity. 3)
radiant heat, smoke, and flames and Relevant problems of radiant evacuation) facing the availability and tenability in structures. 4) Unburned patches
indirectly by escape in very difficult heat with consequent extreme manifestations of fire deployment to tackle fires. Wind damage can render can be found.
environmental conditions. 4) Last- exhaustion of firefighters. 4) and can precipitate the 3) Fatigue and exhaustion building more vulnerable
minute evacuation can conduct to Problems from smoke. 5) occurrence of fatalities. 3) can become risk factors. to fire attack.
dramatic end. 5) Roads are likely to Fatal problems in case of Fear makes people focus on 4) Issues arising from
be cut off by fast-moving fire fronts inappropriate or missing use the threat and not on the working with unfamiliar
or by authorities frustrating last- of PPE. 6) Fatal problems choice of the adequate firefighter teams or
minute evacuation. 6) The erratic from noncompliance with behavior; high levels of stress interaction between
and unpredictable fire behavior can safety rules. 7) Extreme can precipitate the occurrence professional and volunteer
preclude evacuation, make fatal difficulty of communication. of fatalities. 4) Extreme firefighters. 5)
escape and dangerous passive 8) High probability of failure psychological stress even for Coordination and
sheltering in place. 7) Extreme in communication systems well-aware and well-prepared devolution of
difficulty of autonomous defense and lack of information to take people. 5) Stress increased responsibility, situational
using hoses and water in the case of the adequate and timely because of the collapse of awareness if events
lack of electricity and the decisions. 9) Difficulty of phone and mobile escalate and evolve.
inexistence of petrol-driven circulation of terrestrial communication network with
generators. 8) Entrapment and vehicles from lack of subsequent incapacity of
Continued
Table 1.2 Wildfire classification integrating potential physical and psychological consequences.dcont’d
Physical Psychological
1.4 Conclusion
All wildfires are not the same, and they have intrinsic physical characteristics that are
influenced by the environmental, socioeconomic, and political context where fires
occur.
EWEs are the most challenging wildfires because of the threats they represent to
society and environment. They are not an ecological inevitability, and even though
they have power to create huge amount of losses, it is possible to prevent their occur-
rence and mitigate their impacts.
The science of EWEs is in its early stages but is developing very fast, as this type of
event is increasing in frequency because of more hazardous fire regimes, as a conse-
quence of climate, landscape, and societal changes.
The proposed standardized definition of EWEs and wildfire classification inte-
grating the physical attributes of fires with the potential physical and psychological
consequences to people, crews assets, and ecosystems, are crucial for informing citi-
zens about different fire scenarios and the distinctive challenges they present for hu-
man safety. Both the concept of EWE and the wildfires classification are excellent
instruments to enhance wildfire risk and crisis communication programs, as well as
in the definition of appropriate prevention, mitigation, response, and recovery actions
adapted to the characteristics of the areas affected by wildfires.
References
[1] U. Irfan, California’s wildfires are hardly “natural” d humans made them worse at every
step, Vox (2018). https://www.vox.com/2018/8/7/17661096/california-wildfires-2018-
delta-mendocino-climate.
[2] M. Gill, S.L. Stephens, G.J. Cary, The worldwide “wildfire” problem, Ecol. Appl. 23
(2013) 438e454.
Extreme wildfire events: The definition 25
Language: Italian
Giambattista Bazzoni
Nuovo Volume
MILANO
Presso Omobono Manini
1839
INDICE
A
Sigismondo Raris
Consigliere.
DELINEAMENTO A PANORAMA.
Seconda Roma.
ausonio.
Victa Victrix.