BASIC CONCEPTS OF PROBABILITY

 Random Experiment - a process that can be repeated under similar conditions but whose
outcome cannot be predicted with certainty beforehand.

Examples: Tossing a coin, rolling a pair of dice, selecting 5 cards from a well-shuffled deck of cards,
selecting a sample of size n from a population of N using a probability sampling method

(note: Regardless of the number of times we repeat the process, it is still not possible to determine in
advance what the next outcome will be.)

 Sample space (Ω) - the collection of all possible outcomes of a random experiment.
- Sample space is not unique as there are many ways in which we can specify the collection of
all possible outcomes of the experiment.
1. Sample point - an element of the sample space.
Two ways of specifying a collection or set
I. Roster method - list down all the elements belonging in the set then enclosing them in
braces
II. Rule method - state a rule that the elements must satisfy in order to belong in the set then
enclosing this rule in braces

 Event - a subset of the sample space whose probability is defined.

- An event occurred if the outcome of the experiment is one of the sample points belonging in
the event; otherwise, the event did not occur.
1. Impossible Event (∅) - empty set
- Doesn’t contain any element
2. Sure event (Ω) – sample space
- Contains all possible outcome
3. The complement of the set A ( AC ¿ or (Ā) - collection of sample points in the sample space
that do not belong in A.
- Will occur if event A did not occur
- Negation of the original events
4. The union of A and B ( A ∪ B) - collection of sample points that belong in at least one of A
and B.
- Will occur if event A occurred, only B, or both A and B
- Remove redundant entries
- Conjoining the events using the preposition or
5. The intersection of A and B ( A ∩ B) - collection of sample points that belong in both A and B
- Will occur if both events A and B occurred simultaneously
- Conjoining the events using the preposition and
6. The union of n events ( A1 ∪ A 2 ∪ … ∪ A n ) - the collection of sample points that belong in
at least one of A1 , A 2 ,… , A n
- Will occur if at least one of the n events occurred
- Remove redundant entries
- Keyword is or
 7. The intersection of n events ( A1 ∩ A 2 ∩… ∩ An ) - collection of sample points that belong in
each one of A1 , A 2 ,… , A n
- Will occur if all of the n events occurred
- Keyword is and
8. Mutually exclusive events ( A ∪ B= ∅ ) – the collection is pairwise disjoint, which means
that when one event in the collection occurs then any one of the other events in the
collection cannot occur.
- will occur if the intersection of the two events is the empty set which means that A and B
have no element in common
- Can never occur simultaneously
 ARIXIOMATIC DEFINITION OF PROBABILITY – statements taken to be true
- The probability of an event A (P(A)) is a function that assigns a measure of chance that event
A will occur and must satisfy the following properties:
a. P(A) ≥ 0 for any event A
- Must always be non-negative
b. P(Ω) = 1
- The probability of sample space is 1
c. Finite Additivity – If A = A1 ∪ A 2 ∪ … ∪ A n and A1 , A 2 ,… , A n are mutually exclusive,
then P(A) = P ( A 1 ) + P ( A2 ) +…+ P( An )
- P(Ω) = P ( A 1 ) + P ( A2 ) +…+ P( An ) = 1

Probability measure that is close to 1 = the event has a very large chance of occurrence.

Probability measure that is close to 0 = the event has a very small chance of occurrence.

Probability measure that is 0.5 (midpoint of the interval [0,1]) = the event has a 50-50
chance of occurrence

- if you are sure that an event is going to happen, then it must be assigned a probability of 1.
- the probability of the impossible event must always be equal to 0.

APPROACHES TO ASSIGNING PROBABILITY

 Methods in Assigning Probabilities

a. Using Classical Probability or a priori - assigns probabilities to events before the experiment is
performed.
- If an experiment can result in any one of N different equally likely outcomes, and if exactly n
number of elements∈ A n
of these outcomes belong to event A, then P ( A )= =
number of elements∈Ω N
- the first formula that provided a theoretical computation of probability.
- Its use is restricted to experiments whose sample space contains equiprobable outcomes,
and consequently, the sample space must have only a finite number of sample points.
Samples of equiprobable outcomes
- die-throwing experiments where the die used is fair, coin-tossing experiments where the
coin used is balanced, selecting n cards at random from a well-shuffled deck of cards,
selecting a sample of size n from a population of size N using simple random sampling
 number of elements∈ A
P ( A )=
number of elements∈the population
¿ proportion of elements possessing the characteristic of interest
Steps in assigning probabilities to events using a priori probability
Step 1: Specify the sample space. Make sure that the outcomes are equiprobable and finite.
Count the number of sample points in Ω and denote this by n(Ω).
Step 2: Specify event A whose probability you are interested in. Count the number of sample
points in A and denote this by n(A).
n( A)
Step 3: Compute for the probability of event A using the formula, P ( A )=
n(Ω)
- Advantage of this is that its use does not require us to perform the actual experiment and
can be determined prior it.
- SRS as a probability sampling method uses a priori
b. Using relative frequency or a posteriori - assigns probabilities to events by repeating the
experiment a large number of times.
- Assigns probabilities AFTER the experiment is done
- If a random experiment is repeated many times under uniform conditions, then

number of ×event A occurred

empirical P ( A )=
number of ×experiment was repeated
- This approach defines the P(A) as the limiting value of the relative frequency of occurrence
of event A if we repeat the process endlessly. (paulit-ulit mo siyang gagawin and everytime
na inuulit ang experiment, we update the probability)
- Advantage of this is that its use is not restricted to random experiments that generate a
sample space containing equiprobable outcomes.
c. Using subjective probability - assigns probabilities to events by using intuition, personal beliefs,
and other indirect information.
- more personal in its approach to assigning probabilities. The assignments may vary from one
person to another, depending on their personal assessment of the available information on
the situation at hand. However, measures must still conform to axiomatic definition of a
probability.

RULES OF COUNTING

 Combinatorial analysis - the branch of mathematics about counting

 Generalized Basic Principles of Counting
- Suppose an experiment can be performed in k stages
1st stage - n1 distinct possible outcomes
2nd stage - n2 distinct possible outcomes
3rd stage - n3 distinct possible outcomes ….
Kth stage - n k distinct possible outcomes
Then, there are n1∗n2∗n3∗…∗n k possible outcomes of the experiment.
 Factorial (n!) - a compact representation for the product of the first n consecutive positive
integers.
 - n! = n*(n-1)*(n-2)*…*(2)*(1) where n is a positive integer
- 0! = 1
 Permutation (r-permutation) - an ordered arrangement of r distinct elements selected from set
Z containing n elements.
- can be represented by an ordered r-tuple with distinct coordinates.
.
- number of r-permutations taken from set Z is denoted by P(n,r) or n Pr read as “permutation
n taken r”
- sa collection na may n elements, kukuha tayo ng r sa n elements. Pero dapat ang r ay may
ordered arrangement and distinct (bawal maulit)
- order matters (arrange)
n!
- FORMULA: P ( n , r )=n∗( n−1 )∗( n−2 )∗…∗ ( n−r +1 )=
( n−r ) !
 Combination (r-combination) - a subset of set Z that contains r distinct elements.
- If set Z contains n distinct elements, then the number of r-combinations of set Z is denoted
by C(n,r) or ¿) read as “n taken r”.
- sa collection na may n elements, kukuha tayo ng r sa n elements. Pero dapat ang r ay
distinct (bawal maulit)
- order does not matter (select, choose)
P(n ,r ) n!
- FORMULA: C ( n , r ) = =
r! ( n−r ) ! r !
# of possible arrangements of size x from n objects

Without replacement With replacement (pwedeng maulit)

Ordered n! n
x
P (n,x) =
( n−x ) !
Unordered n! ( n+ x−1 ) !
C (n,x) = C (n+x-1,x) =
x ! ( n−x ) ! x ! ( n−1 ) !

a. Identical Kinds - The number of distinct ways of arranging n objects of which n1 are of one kind,
n2 are of a second kind, ..., n k are of kth kind is
k
n!
where ∑ ni =n
n1 ! n2 ! … nk ! i=1
b. Partitioning - The number of distinct ways of grouping n distinct objects into k groups such that
n1 objects belong in the first group, n2 objects belong in the second group, ..., n k objects belong
in the kth group is
k
n!
where ∑ ni =n
n1 ! n2 ! … nk ! i=1

PROPERTIES OF PROBABILITIES, EVENT COMPOSITION METHOD

 Properties of Probabilities
 1. If A is an event, then P( AC ) = 1 – P(A)
- Outside A is only included
2. If A and B are events, then P ( A ∩B C )=P ( A ) −P (A ∩B)
- Only a is included minus the intersection

3. Additive Law of Probability: If A and B are events, then

P ( A ∪ B )=P ( A ) + P ( B ) −P( A ∩ B)
- Only a and b is included plus the intersection
- keyword is and
- If we want to find P ( A ∩B )=P ( A ) + P ( B )−P( A ∪ B)
4. If A and B are mutually exclusive, then P ( A ∪ B )=P ( A ) + P ( B )
- Only a and b is included
5. If A and B are events, then
5.1 P ¿ – only outside a and b are included
− Uses the formula 1−P( A ∩ B)
5.2 P ¿ – only the intersection is NOT INCLUDED
- Uses the formula 1−P( A ∪ B)
- Known as de Morgan’s theorem
 Event Composition Method
- the probabilities are computed by expressing the event of interest as a composition of other
events.
Step 1: Define the basic events.
- basic events are those events in the problem that cannot be expressed as a composition of
other events.
Step 2: List the known (given) probabilities of events as stated in the problem.
Step 3: Express the event of interest (question) as a composition of the basic events using
the set operations.
Step 4: Use theorems or formulas for the computation of the probabilities.

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY AND INDEPENDENCE OF EVENTS

 Conditional Probability
- Let A and B be two events where P(B) > 0. The conditional probability of event A given the
P( A ∩ B)
occurrence of event B is P ( A|B )=
P( B)
P ( A ∩ BC ) P ( A )−P ( A ∩B )
Remark 1: if P(A| BC ¿ = , thenuse the formula
P(B )
C
1−P ( B )
Remark 2: if P ( A|B ) , thenuse the formula P ( A ∩B )=P ( A|B )∗P(B)
Remark 3: if P ( B| A ) , thenuse the formula P ( A ∩B )=P ( B| A )∗P( A)
- Properties
1. Suppose P(B) > 0, then P ( ∅|B )=0
2. If A1 , A 2 ,… , A n are mutually exclusive events, then
P ( A 1 ∪ A 2 ∪ …∪ A n|B )=P ( A1|B ) + P ( A2∨B ) + …+ P( A n∨B)
 3. If A is an event, then P( AC | B ¿=1−P (A∨B)
- If P( AC |BC )=1−P( A∨B C )
4. If A1∧ A 2 are events then, P( A1 ∩ A 2 |B )=P ( A1|B )−P (A 1 ∩ A 2∨B)
C

5. If A1∧ A 2 are events then, P( A1 ∪ A 2|B )=P ( A 1|B ) + P ( A 2|B )−P( A 1 ∩ A 2∨B)
 If {B1 , B2 , … , B n } is a collection of mutually exclusive events wherein each event has a nonzero
probability and Ω=B 1 ∪ B2 ∪ … ∪ Bn , then for any event A,

1. Theorem of Total Probabilities

n
P ( A )=∑ P ( A|B j ) P( BJ )
j=1
n
- We can use the formula P ( A )=∑ P ( A ∩ B j )=¿ P ( A ∩ B1 ) +…+ P ( A ∩ B j ) ¿
j=1
2. Bayes Theorem (P(A) > 0)
P ( A|B K ) P(B k )
P ( B k|A ) = n

∑ P ( A|B j ) P (B j )
j=1
P( A ∩ B k )
- We can use the formula P ( B k|A ) =
P (A )

INDEPENDENCE OF EVENTS

Two events A and B are said to be independent events if and only if any one of the following conditions
is satisfied:

1. P(A|B) = P(A), if P(B) > 0

2. P(B|A) = P(B), if P(A) > 0
3. P (A∩ B ¿ = P(A) * P(B)

Otherwise, the events are said to be dependent

- If A and B are independent, so are AC and B, A and BC , and AC and BC