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 CONTENTS vii

Conclusion 433 .
Further Reading 434 .
Key Terms 434
. Computing Corner 435 .
Exercises 439

IV ADVANCED MATERIAL 447

13 Time Series: Dealing with Stickiness over Time 449

13.1 Modeling Autocorrelation 450
13.2 Detecting Autocorrelation 453
13.3 Fixing Autocorrelation 457
13.4 Dynamic Models 462
13.5 Stationarity 465
Conclusion 475 .
Further Reading 476 .
Key Terms 477
. Computing Corner 477 .
Exercises 479

14 Advanced OLS 481

14.1 How to Derive the OLS Estimator and Prove Unbiasedness 481
14.2 How to Derive the Equation for the Variance of β̂1 487
14.3 How to Derive the Omitted Variable Bias Conditions 489
14.4 Anticipating the Sign of Omitted Variable Bias 491
14.5 Omitted Variable Bias with Multiple Variables 494
14.6 Omitted Variable Bias due to Measurement Error 495
Conclusion 497 .
Further Reading 497 .
Key Term 498
. Computing Corner 498 .
Exercises 498

15 Advanced Panel Data 501

15.1 Panel Data Models with Serially Correlated Errors 501
15.2 Temporal Dependence with a Lagged Dependent Variable 503
15.3 Random Effects Models 507
Conclusion 509 .
Further Reading 509 .
Key Term 510
. Computing Corner 510 .
Exercises 513
viii CONTENTS

16 Conclusion: How to Be a Statistical Realist 516

Further Reading 520

APPENDICES
Math and Probability Background 521
A. Summation 521
B. Expectation 521
C. Variance 522
D. Covariance 523
E. Correlation 524
F. Probability Density Functions 524
G. Normal Distributions 526
H. Other Useful Distributions 532
I. Sampling 534
Further Reading 537 . Key Terms 537 . Computing Corner 537

Citations and Additional Notes 539

Guide to Review Questions 549

Bibliography/Credits 559

Glossary 568

Index 577
LIST OF FIGURES

1.1 Rule #1 2
1.2 Weight and Donuts in Springfield 4
1.3 Regression Line for Weight and Donuts in Springfield 5
1.4 Examples of Lines Generated by Core Statistical Model (for Review
Question) 7
1.5 Correlation 10
1.6 Possible Relationships Between X, , and Y (for Discussion
Questions) 12
1.7 Two Scenarios for the Relationship between Flu Shots and Health 14

2.1 Two Versions of Debt and Growth Data 25

2.2 Weight and Donuts in Springfield 27
2.3 Scatterplots of Violent Crime against Percent Urban, Single Parent,
and Poverty 31

3.1 Relationship between Income Growth and Vote for the Incumbent
President’s Party, 1948–2012 46
3.2 Elections and Income Growth with Model Parameters Indicated 51
3.3 Fitted Values and Residuals for Observations in Table 3.1 52
3.4 Four Distributions 55
3.5 Distribution of β̂1 58
3.6 Two Distributions with Different Variances of β̂1 62
3.7 Four Scatterplots (for Review Questions on page 63) 64
3.8 Distributions of β̂1 for Different Sample Sizes 66
3.9 Plots with Different Goodness of Fit 72
3.10 Height and Wages 74
3.11 Scatterplot of Violent Crime and Percent Urban 77
3.12 Scatterplots of Crime against Percent Urban, Single Parent, and
Poverty with OLS Fitted Lines 78

ix
x LIST OF FIGURES

4.1 Distribution of β̂1 under the Null Hypothesis for Presidential

Election Example 95
4.2 Distribution of β̂1 under the Null Hypothesis with Larger Standard
Error for Presidential Election Example 99
4.3 Three t Distributions 100
4.4 Critical Values for Large-Sample t Tests 102
4.5 Two Examples of p Values 107
4.6 Statistical Power for Three Values of β1 Given α = 0.01 and a
One-Sided Alternative Hypothesis 110
4.7 Power Curves for Two Values of se(β̂1 ) 113
4.8 Meaning of Confidence Interval for Example of 0.41 ± 0.196 118

5.1 Monthly Retail Sales and Temperature in New Jersey

from 1992 to 2013 129
5.2 Monthly Retail Sales and Temperature in New Jersey with
December Indicated 130
5.3 95 Percent Confidence Intervals for Coefficients in Adult Height,
Adolescent Height, and Wage Models 134
5.4 Economic Growth, Years of School, and Test Scores 143

6.1 Goal Differentials for Home and Away Games for Manchester City
and Manchester United 168
6.2 Bivariate OLS with a Dummy Independent Variable 171
6.3 Scatterplot of Obama Feeling Thermometers and Party
Identification 173
6.4 Three Difference of Means Tests for Review Questions 174
6.5 Scatterplot of Height and Gender 176
6.6 Another Scatterplot of Height and Gender 177
6.7 Fitted Values for Model with Dummy Variable and Control
Variable: Manchester City Example 180
6.8 Relation between Omitted Variable (Obama Vote) and Other
Variables 187
6.9 Confidence Intervals for “Newly Elected” Variable in Table 6.8 190
6.10 Interaction Model of Salaries for Men and Women 192
6.11 Various Fitted Lines from Dummy Interaction Models (for Review
Questions) 194
 LIST OF FIGURES xi

6.12 Heating Used and Heating Degree-Days for Homeowner Who

Installed a Programmable Thermostat 196
6.13 Heating Used and Heating Degree-Days with Fitted Values for
Different Models 199
6.14 Marginal Effect of Text Ban as Total Miles Changes 204

7.1 Average Life Satisfaction by Age in the United States 208

7.2 Life Expectancy and per Capita GDP in 2011 for All Countries
in the World 210
7.3 Linear and Quadratic Fitted Lines for Life Expectancy Data 211
7.4 Examples of Quadratic Fitted Curves 212
7.5 Global Temperature over Time 215
7.6 Hypothetical Investment Data (for Review Questions) 217
7.7 Linear-Log Model for Life Expectancy Data 220

8.1 Robberies and Police for Large Cities in California 250

8.2 Robberies and Police for Specified Cities in California 250
8.3 Robberies and Police for Specified Cities in California with
City-Specific Regression Lines 251
8.4 Robberies and Police for Hypothetical Cities in California 257
8.5 Difference-in-Difference Examples 270
8.6 More Difference-in-Difference Examples (for Review Question) 274

9.1 Conditions for Instrumental Variables 294

9.2 Simultaneous Equation Model 309

10.1 Compliance and Non-compliance in Experiments 334

11.1 Drinking Age and Test Scores 366

11.2 Basic Regression Discontinuity Model, Yi = β0 + β1 Ti + β2 (X1i − C) 369
11.3 Possible Results with Basic RD Model 370
11.4 Possible Results with Differing-Slopes RD Model 374
11.5 Fitted Lines for Examples of Polynomial RD Models 375
11.6 Various Fitted Lines for RD Model of Form
Yi = β0 + β1 Ti + β2 (X1i − C) + β3 (X1i − C)Ti (for Review Question) 377
xii LIST OF FIGURES

11.7 Smaller Windows for Fitted Lines for Polynomial RD Model in

Figure 11.5 379
11.8 Bin Plots for RD Model 380
11.9 Binned Graph of Test Scores and Pre-K Attendance 382
11.10 Histograms of Assignment Variable for RD Analysis 385
11.11 Histogram of Age Observations for Drinking Age Case Study 388

12.1 Scatterplot of Law School Admissions Data and LPM Fitted Line 404
12.2 Misspecification Problem in an LPM 405
12.3 Scatterplot of Law School Admissions Data and LPM- and
Probit-Fitted Lines 407
12.4 Symmetry of Normal Distribution 411
12.5 PDFs and CDFs 412
12.6 Examples of Data and Fitted Lines Estimated by Probit 416
12.7 Varying Effect of X in Probit Model 419
12.8 Fitted Lines from LPM, Probit, and Logit Models 426
12.9 Fitted Lines from LPM and Probit Models for Civil War Data
(Holding Ethnic and Religious Variables at Their Means) 432
12.10 Figure Included for Some Respondents in Global Warming Survey
Experiment 443

13.1 Examples of Autocorrelation 452

13.2 Global Average Temperature since 1880 455
13.3 Global Temperature Data 461
13.4 Data with Unit Roots and Spurious Regression 468
13.5 Data without Unit Roots 469
13.6 Global Temperature and Carbon Dioxide Data 472

A.1 An Example of a Probability Density Function (PDF) 525

A.2 Probabilities That a Standard Normal Random Variable
Is Less than Some Value 526
A.3 Probabilities That a Standard Normal Random Variable
Is Greater than Some Value 527
A.4 Standard Normal Distribution 528
A.5 Two χ Distributions
2
533
A.6 Four F Distributions 535
R.1 Identifying β0 from a Scatterplot 550
LIST OF TABLES

1.1 Donut Consumption and Weight 3

2.1 Descriptive Statistics for Donut and Weight Data 26

2.2 Frequency Table for Male Variable in Donut Data Set 26
2.3 Frequency Table for Male Variable in Second Donut Data Set 27
2.4 Codebook for Height and Wage Data 29
2.5 Descriptive Statistics for State Crime Data 31
2.6 Variables for Winter Olympics Questions 39
2.7 Variables for Height and Weight Data in the United States 40

3.1 Selected Observations from Election and Income Data 51

3.2 Effect of Height on Wages 75
3.3 OLS Models of Crime in U.S. States 77
3.4 Variables for Questions on Presidential Elections and the Economy 86
3.5 Variables for Height and Wage Data in Britain 89
3.6 Variables for Divorce Rate and Hours Worked 89

4.1 Type I and Type II Errors 93

4.2 Effect of Income Changes on Presidential Elections 95
4.3 Decision Rules for Various Alternative Hypotheses 101
4.4 Critical Values for t Distribution 104
4.5 Effect of Height on Wages with t Statistics 104
4.6 Calculating Confidence Intervals for Large Samples 119
4.7 Variables for Height and Wage Data in the United States 123

5.1 Bivariate and Multivariate Results for Retail Sales Data 131
5.2 Bivariate and Multiple Multivariate Results for Height
and Wages Data 133

xiii
xiv LIST OF TABLES

5.3 Using Multiple Measures of Education to Study Economic Growth

and Education 142
5.4 Effects of Judicial Independence on Human Rights 154
5.5 Variables for Height and Wage Data in the United States 161
5.6 Variables for Cell Phones and Traffic Deaths Data 163
5.7 Variables for Speeding Ticket Data 164
5.8 Variables for Height and Wage Data in Britain 165

6.1 Feeling Thermometer Toward Barack Obama 172

6.2 Difference of Means Test for Height and Gender 176
6.3 Another Way to Show Difference of Means Test Results for
Height and Gender 178
6.4 Manchester City Example with Dummy and Continuous
Independent Variables 179
6.5 Using Different Excluded Categories for Wages and Region 183
6.6 Hypothetical Results for Wages and Region When Different
Categories Are Excluded 185
6.7 Difference of Means of Conservatism of Republicans Elected
in 2010 186
6.8 Multivariate OLS Analysis of Republicans Elected in 2010 189
6.9 Interpreting Coefficients in Dummy Interaction Model:
Yi = β0 + β1 Xi + β2 Di + β3 Xi × Di 193
6.10 Data from Programmable Thermostat and Home Heating Bills 197
6.11 Variables for Monetary Policy Data 202
6.12 Variables for Speeding Ticket Data 205

7.1 Global Temperature, 1879–2012 216

7.2 Different Logged Models of Relationship between
Height and Wages 221
7.3 Determinants of Major League Baseball Salaries, 1985–2005 223
7.4 Means and Standard Deviations of Baseball Variables 224
7.5 Means and Standard Deviations of Baseball Variables
for Three Players 225
7.6 Standardized Determinants of Major League Baseball Salaries,
1985–2005 225
7.7 Unrestricted and Restricted Models for F Tests 233
7.8 Variables for Political Instability Data 239
 LIST OF TABLES xv

7.9 Variables for Global Education Data 240

7.10 Variables for Height and Wage Data in Britain 241
7.11 Variables for Speeding Ticket Data 242

8.1 Basic OLS Analysis of Burglary and Police Officers 249

8.2 Example of Robbery and Police Data for Cities in California 255
8.3 Robberies and Police Data for Hypothetical Cities in California 257
8.4 Burglary and Police Officers, Pooled versus Fixed Effects Models 258
8.5 Burglary and Police Officers for Multiple Models Models 265
8.6 Bilateral Trade, Pooled versus Fixed Effects Models 267
8.7 Effect of Stand Your Ground Laws on Homicide Rate per 100,000
Residents 272
8.8 Variables for Presidential Approval Data 280
8.9 Variables for Peace Corps Data 281
8.10 Variables for Instructor Evaluation Data 282
8.11 Variables for the HOPE Scholarship Data 283
8.12 Variables for the Texas School Board Data 284
8.13 Variables in the Cell Phones and Traffic Deaths Data 285

9.1 Levitt (2002) Results on Effect of Police Officers on Violent Crime 289
9.2 Influence of Distance on NICU Utilization (First-Stage Results) 298
9.3 Influence of NICU Utilization on Baby Mortality 299
9.4 Regression Results for Models Relating to Drinking and Grades 300
9.5 First-Stage Reduced Form Regressions for Bush/Iraq War
Simultaneous Equation Model 313
9.6 Second-Stage Results for Bush/Iraq War Simultaneous Equation
Model 314
9.7 Variables for Rainfall and Economic Growth Data 319
9.8 Variables for News Program Data 320
9.9 Variables for Fish Market Data 321
9.10 Variables for Education and Crime Data 322
9.11 Variables for Income and Democracy Data 323
xvi LIST OF TABLES

10.1 Balancing Tests for the Progresa Experiment: Differences of

Means Tests Using OLS 331
10.2 First-Stage Regression in Campaign Experiment: Explaining
Contact 339
10.3 Second-Stage Regression in Campaign Experiment: Explaining
Turnout 340
10.4 Various Measures of Campaign Contact in 2SLS Model for
Selected Observations 341
10.5 First-Stage Regression in Domestic Violence Experiment:
Explaining Arrests 343
10.6 Selected Observations for Minneapolis Domestic Violence
Experiment 344
10.7 Using Different Estimators to Analyze the Results of the
Domestic Violence Experiment 345
10.8 Regression Results for Models Relating Teacher Payment
Experiment (for Review Questions) 352
10.9 Effect of Terror Alerts on Crime 355
10.10 Variables for Get-out-the-Vote Experiment from Gerber and
Green (2005) 359
10.11 Variables for Resume Experiment 361
10.12 Variables for Afghan School Experiment 363

11.1 RD Analysis of Prekindergarten 383

11.2 RD Analysis of Drinking Age and Test Scores 388
11.3 RD Diagnostics for Drinking Age and Test Scores 389
11.4 Variables for Prekindergarten Data 392
11.5 Variables for Congressional Ideology Data 394
11.6 Variables for Head Start Data 396

12.1 LPM Model of the Probability of Admission to Law School 403

12.2 Sample Probit Results for Review Questions 418
12.3 Dog Ownership and Probability of Supporting Obama in 2008
Election 423
12.4 Estimated Effect of Dog Ownership and Ideology on Probability
of Supporting Obama in 2008 Election 425
12.5 Unrestricted and Restricted Probit Results for LR
Test 429
 LIST OF TABLES xvii

12.6 Probit Models of the Determinants of Civil Wars 431

12.7 Variables for Iraq War Data 440
12.8 Variables for Global Warming Data 441
12.9 Variables for Football Coach Data 443
12.10 Variables for Donor Experiment 445
12.11 Balance Tests for Donor Experiment 445

13.1 Using OLS and Lagged Error Model to Detect Autocorrelation 456
13.2 Example of ρ-Transformed Data (for ρ̂ = 0.5) 458
13.3 Global Temperature Model Estimated by Using OLS and via
ρ-Transformed Data 462
13.4 Dickey-Fuller Tests for Stationarity 473
13.5 Change in Temperature as a Function of Change in Carbon Dioxide
and Other Factors 474
13.6 Variables for James Bond Movie Data 480

14.1 Effect of Omitting X2 on Coefficient Estimate for X1 493

14.2 Variables for Winter Olympics Data 499

15.1 Another Set of Variables for Winter Olympics Data 513

A.1 Examples of Standardized Values 530

R.1 Values of β0 , β1 , β2 , and β3 in Figure 8.6 554
 USEFUL COMMANDS FOR STATA

Task Command Example Chapter

Help help help summarize 2

Comment line * * This is a comment line 2
Comment on command line /* */ use "C:\Data.dta" /* This is a comment */
Continue line /* */ reg y X1 X2 X3 /*
*/ X4 X5
Load Stata data file use use "C:\Data.dta" 2
Load text data file insheet insheet using "C:\Data.txt" 2
Display variables in memory list list /* Lists all observations for all variables */ 2
list Y X /* Lists all observations for Y and X */ 2
list X in 1/10 /* Lists first 10 observations for X */ 2
Descriptive statistics summarize summarize X1 X2 Y 2
Frequency table tabulate tabulate X1 2
Scatter plot scatter scatter Y X 2
scatter Y X, mlabel(name) /* Adds labels */ 2
Limit data if summarize X1 if X2 == 1 2
Not equal != summarize X1 if X2!=0 3
Equal (as used in if statement, for example) == summarize X1 if X2 == 1 2
Missing data in Stata . Stata treats missing data as having infinite value, so
list X1 if X2 > 0 will include values of X1 for
which X2 is missing
Regression reg reg Y X1 X2 3
Heteroscedasticity robust regression , robust reg Y X1 X2, robust 3
Generate predicted values predict predict FittedY /* Run this after reg command */ 3
Add regression line to scatter plot twoway, lfit twoway (scatter Y X) (lfit Y X) 3
Critical value for t-distribution, two-sided invttail display invttail(120, .05/2) /* For model with 120 4
degrees of freedom and alpha = 0.05; note that
we divide alpha by 2 */
Critical value for t-distribution, one-sided invttail display invttail(120, .05) /* For model with 120 4
degrees of freedom and alpha = 0.05 */
Critical value for normal distribution, two-sided invnormal display invnormal(.975) /* For alpha = 0.05, note 4
that we divide alpha by 2 */
Critical value for normal distribution, one-sided invnormal display invnormal(.05) 4
Two sided p-values [Reported in reg output] 4
One sided p-values ttail display 2*ttail(120, 1.69) /* For model with 120 4
degrees of freedom and a t-statistic of 1.69 */
Confidence intervals [Reported in reg output] 4
Difference of means test reg reg Y Dum /* Where Dum is a dummy variable */ 6
Create an interaction variable gen gen DumX = Dum * X 6

xviii
 USEFUL COMMANDS FOR STATA xix

Task Command Example Chapter

Create a squared variable gen gen X_sq = X^2 7

Create a logged variable gen gen X_log =log( X) 7
Delete a variable drop drop X7
Produce standardized regression coefficients , beta reg Y X1 X2, beta 7
Produce standardized variable egen egen X_std = std(X) /* Creates variable called 7
X_std */
F-test test test X1 = X2 = 0 /* Run this after regression with 7
X1 and X2 in model */
Critical value for F test invF display invF(2, 120, 0.95) /* Degrees of freedom 7
equal 2 and 120 (order matters!) and alpha =
0.05 */
Generate dummy variables for each unit tabulate and tabulate City, generate(City_dum) 8
generate
LSDV model for panel data reg reg Y X1 X2 City_dum2 - City_dum80 8
De-meaned model for panel data xtreg xtreg Y X1 X2, fe i(City) 8
Two-way fixed-effects xtreg xtreg Y X1 X2 i.year Yr2- Yr10, fe i(City) 8
2SLS model ivregress ivregress 2sls Y X2 X3 (X1 = Z), first 9
Probit probit probit Y X1 X2 X3 12
Logit logit logit Y X1 X2 X3 12
Critical value for chi-square test invchi2 display invchi2(1, 0.95) /* Degrees of freedom = 12
1 and 0.95 confidence level */
Account for autocorrelation in time series data prais tsset Year 13
prais Y X1 X2, corc twostep
Include lagged dependent variable L.Y reg Y L.Y X1 X2 /* Run tsset command first */ 13
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test dfuller dfuller Y, trend lags(1) regress 13
Generate draws from standard normal rnormal gen Noise = rnormal(0,1) /* Length will be same 14
distribution as length of variables in memory */
Indicate to Stata unit and time variables tsset tsset ID time 15
Panel model with autocorrelation xtregar xtregar Y X1 X2, fe rhotype(regress) twostep 15
Include lagged dependent variable L.Y xtreg Y L.Y X1 X2, fe i(ID) 15
Random effects panel model , re xtreg Y X1 X2, re 15
USEFUL COMMANDS FOR R

Task Command Example Chapter

Help ? ?mean 2
Comment line # # This is a comment 2
Load R data file Data = "C:\Data.RData" 2
Load text data file read.table Data = read.table("C:\Data.txt", header = TRUE) 2
Display names of variables in memory objects objects() # Will list names of all variables in memory 2
Display variables in memory [enter variable X1 # Display all values of this variable; enter directly in console 2
name] or highlight in editor and press ctrl-r
X1[1:10] # Display first 10 values of X1 2
Missing data in R NA
Mean mean mean(X1) 2
mean(X1, na.rm=TRUE) # Necessary if there are missing values
Variance var var(X1) 2
var(X1, na.rm=TRUE) # Necessary if there are missing values
sqrt(var(X1)) # This is the standard deviation of X1
Minimum min min(X1, na.rm=TRUE) 2
Maximum max max(X1, na.rm=TRUE) 2
Number of observations sum and is.finite sum(is.finite(X1)) 2
Frequency table table table(X1)
Scatter plot plot plot(X, Y) 2
text(X, Y, name) # Adds labels from variable called "name" 2
Limit data (similar to an if statement) [] plot(Y[X3<10], X1[X3<10]) 2
Equal (as used in if statement, for example) == mean(X1[X2==1]) # Mean of X1 for cases where X2 equals 1
Not equal != mean(X1[X1!=0]) # Mean of X1 for observations where X1 is
not equal to 0
Regression lm lm(Y ~X1 + X2) # lm stands for "linear model" 3
Results = lm(Y~X) # Creates an object called "Results" that 3
stores coefficients, standard errors, fitted values and other
information about this regression
Display results summary summary(Results) # Do this after creating "Results" 3
Install a package install.packages install.packages("AER") # Only do this once for each computer 3
Load a package library library(AER) # Include in every R session in which we use
package specified in command
Heteroscedasticity robust regression coeftest coeftest(Results, vcov = vcovHC(Results, type = "HC1")) 3
# Need to install and load AER package for this command. Do
this after creating OLS regression object called "Results"
Generate predicted values $fitted.values Results$fitted.values # Run after creating OLS regression object 3
called "Results"
Add regression line to scatter plot abline abline(Results) # Run after plot command and after creating 3
"Results" object based on a bivariate regression

xx
 USEFUL COMMANDS FOR R xxi

Task Command Example Chapter

Critical value for t-distribution, two-sided qt qt(0.975, 120) # For alpha = 0.05 and 120 degrees of freedom; 4
divide alpha by 2
Critical value for t-distribution, one-sided qt qt(0.95, 120) # For alpha = 0.05 and 120 degrees of freedom 4
Critical value for normal distribution, two-sided qnorm qnorm(0.975) # For alpha = 0.05; divide alpha by 2 4
Critical value for normal distribution, one-sided qnorm qnorm(0.95) # For alpha = 0.05 4
Two sided p-values [Reported in summary(Results) output]
One sided p-values pt 2*(1-pt(abs(1.69), 120) # For model with 120 degrees of 4
freedom and a t-statistic of 1.69
Confidence intervals confint confint(Results, level = 0.95) # Do after creating OLS object 4
called "Results"
Difference of means test lm lm(Y~Dum) # Where Dum is a dummy variable 6
Create an interaction variable DumX = Dum * X # Or use <- in place of =
Create a squared variable X_sq = X^2 7
Create a logged variable X_log =log( X) 7
Produce standardized regression coefficients scale Res.std = lm(scale(Y) ~scale(X1) + scale(X2) ) 7
Display R squared $r.squared summary(Results)$r.squared 7
Critical value for F test qf qf(.95, df1 = 2, df2 = 120) # Degrees of freedom equal 2 and 7
120 (order matters!) and alpha = 0.05
LSDV model for panel data factor Results = lm(Y ∼ X1 + factor(country)) # Factor adds a 8
dummy variable for every value of variable called country
One-way fixed-effects model (de-meaned) plm library(plm) 8
Results = plm(Y ~X1+ X2+ X3, data = dta,
index=c("country"), model="within")
Two-way fixed-effects model (de-meaned) plm library(plm) 8
Results = plm(Y ~X1+ X2+ X3 data = dta,
index=c("country", "year"), model="within",
effect = "twoways")
2SLS model ivreg library(AER) 9
ivreg(Y ~X1 + X2 + X3 |Z1 + Z2 + X2 + X3)
Generate draws from standard normal distribution rnorm Noise = rnorm(500) # 500 draws from standard normal 14
distribution
Panel model with autocorrelation [See Computing Corner in Chapter 15] 15
Include lagged dependent variable plm with Results = plm(Y ~lag(Y) + X1 + X2, data = dta, index = 15
lag(Y) c("ID", "time"), effect = "twoways")
Random effects panel model plm with Results = plm(Y ~X1 + X2, data = dta, model = "random") 15
"random"
PREFACE FOR STUDENTS:
HOW THIS BOOK CAN HELP YOU
LEARN STATISTICS

“Less dull than traditional texts.”—Student A.H.

“It would have been immensely helpful for me to have a textbook like this in
my classes throughout my college and graduate experience. It feels more like
an interactive learning experience than simply reading equations and facts out
of a book and being expected to absorb them.”—Student S.A.

“I wish I had had this book when I was first exposed to the material—it would
have saved a lot of time and hair-pulling. . . .”—Student J.H.
“Material is easy to understand, hard to forget.”—Student M.H.

This book introduces the statistical tools necessary to answer important questions.
Do antipoverty programs work? Does unemployment affect inflation? Does
campaign spending affect election outcomes? These and many more questions
not only are interesting but also are important to answer correctly if we want to
support policies that are good for people, countries, and the world.
When using statistics to answer such questions, we need always to remember
a single big idea: correlation is not causation. Just because variable Y rises when
variable X rises does not mean that variable X causes variable Y to rise. The
essential goal of statistics is to figure out when we can say that changes in variable
X will lead to changes in variable Y.
This book helps us learn how to identify causal relationships with three
features seldom found in other statistics and econometrics textbooks. First, it
focuses on the tools that researchers use most. These are the real stats that help us
make reasonable claims about whether X causes Y. By using these tools, we can
produce analyses that others can respect. We’ll get the most out of our data while
recognizing the limits in what we can say or how confident we can be.
Our emphasis on real stats means that we skip obscure statistical tools that
could come up under certain conditions: they are not discussed here. Statistics
is too often complicated by books and teachers trying to do too much. This book
shows that we can have a sophisticated understanding of statistical inference with-
out having to catalog every method that our instructor had to learn as a student.
Second, this book works with a single unifying framework. We don’t start
over with each new concept; instead, we build around a core model. That means

xxii
 PREFACE FOR STUDENTS xxiii

there is a single equation and a unifying set of assumptions that we poke, probe,
and expand throughout the book. This approach reduces the learning costs of
moving through the material and allows us to go back and revisit material. As
with any skill, we probably won’t fully understand any given technique the
first time we see it. We have to work at it, we have to work with it. We’ll
get comfortable, we’ll see connections. Then it will click. Whether the skill is
jumping rope, typing, throwing a baseball, or analyzing data, we have to do things
many times to get good at it. By sticking to a unifying framework, we have more
chances to revisit what we have already learned. You’ll also notice that I’m not
afraid to repeat myself on the important stuff. Really, I’m not afraid to repeat
myself.
Third, this book uses many examples from the policy, political, and economic
worlds. So even if you do not care about “two-stage least squares” or “maximum
likelihood” in and of themselves, you will see how understanding these techniques
will affect what you think about education policy, trade policy, election outcomes,
and many other interesting issues. The examples make it clear that the statistical
tools developed in this book are being used by contemporary social scientists who
are actually making a difference with their empirical work.
Real Stats is for people who care about policy, politics, economics, and law.
It can serve as the primary course textbook in applied statistics and research
methods courses or as a supplemental text providing more intuition and context
in more advanced methods course. As more and more public policy and corporate
decisions are based on statistical analysis, this book can also be used outside of
course work. Statistical analysis has infiltrated into every area of our lives—from
entertainment to sports (I no longer spit out my coffee when I come across
an article on regression analysis of National Hockey League players)—and a
working knowledge of basic statistical techniques can help anyone make better
sense of the world around them.

What’s In This Book?

The preparation necessary to use this book successfully is modest. We use basic
algebra a fair bit, being careful to explain every step. You do not need calculus.
We refer to calculus when useful, and the book certainly could be used by a course
that works through some of the concepts using calculus, but you can understand
everything without knowing calculus.
We start with two introductory chapters. Chapter 1 lays out the challenge of
statistical inference. This is the challenge of making probabilistic yet accurate
claims about causal relations between variables. We present experiments as an
ideal way to conduct research, but we also show how experiments in the real world
are tricky and can’t answer every question we care about. This chapter provides
the “big picture” context for statistical analysis that is every bit as important as
the specifics that follow.
Chapter 2 provides a practical foundation related to good statistical practices.
In every statistical analysis, data meets software, and if we’re not careful, we
xxiv PREFACE FOR STUDENTS

lose control. This chapter therefore seeks to teach good habits about documenting
analysis and understanding data.
The five chapters of Part I constitute the heart of the book. They introduce
ordinary least squares (OLS), also known as regression analysis. Chapter 3
introduces the most basic regression model, the bivariate OLS model. Chapter
4 shows how to use OLS to test hypotheses. Chapters 5 through 7 introduce
the multivariate OLS model and applications. By the end of Part I, you will
understand regression and be able to control for anything you can measure. You’ll
also be able to fit curves to data and assess whether the effects of some variables
differ across groups, among other skills that will impress your friends.
Part II introduces techniques that constitute the modern statistical toolkit.
These are the techniques people use when they want to get published—or
paid. These techniques build on multivariate OLS to give us a better chance of
identifying causal relations between two variables. Chapter 8 covers a simple yet
powerful way to control for many factors we can’t measure directly. Chapter 9
covers instrumental variable techniques, which work if we can find a variable
that affects our independent variable but not our dependent variable. Instrumental
variable techniques are a bit funky, but they can be very useful for isolating causal
effects. Chapter 10 covers randomized experiments. Although ideal in theory, in
practice such experiments often raise a number of statistical challenges we need
to address. Chapter 11 covers regression discontinuity tools that can be used when
we’re studying the effect of variables that were allocated based on a fixed rule. For
example, Medicare is available to people in the United States only when they turn
65; admission to certain private schools depends on a test score exceeding some
threshold. Focusing on policies that depend on such thresholds turns out to be a
great context for conducting credible statistical analysis.
Part III covers dichotomous dependent variable models. These are simply
models in which the outcome we care about takes on two possible values.
Examples include high school graduation (someone graduates or doesn’t),
unemployment (someone has a job or doesn’t), and alliances (two countries sign
an alliance treaty or don’t). We show how to apply OLS to such models and
then provide more elaborate models that address the deficiencies of OLS in this
context.
Part IV supplements the book with additional useful material. Chapter 13
covers time series data. The first part is a variation on OLS; the second part
introduces dynamic models that differ from OLS models in important ways.
Chapter 14 derives important OLS results and extends discussion on specific
topics. Chapter 15 goes into greater detail on the vast literature on panel data,
showing how the various strands fit together.
Chapter 16 concludes the book with tips on adopting the mind-set of a
statistical realist. In fact, if you are looking for an overall understanding of the
power and limits of statistics, you might want to read this chapter first—then
read it again once you’ve learned all the statistical concepts covered in the other
chapters.
Another random document with
no related content on Scribd:
The Project Gutenberg eBook of Le vote des
femmes
 This ebook is for the use of anyone anywhere in the United
States and most other parts of the world at no cost and with
almost no restrictions whatsoever. You may copy it, give it away
or re-use it under the terms of the Project Gutenberg License
included with this ebook or online at www.gutenberg.org. If you
are not located in the United States, you will have to check the
laws of the country where you are located before using this
eBook.

Title: Le vote des femmes

Author: Hubertine Auclert

Release date: July 21, 2022 [eBook #68581]

Language: French

Original publication: France: V. Giard & E. Brière, 1908

Credits: Claudine Corbasson & the online Project Gutenberg

team at https://www.pgdpcanada.net (This file was
produced from images generously made available by
the Bibliothèque nationale de France (BnF/Gallica))

*** START OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK LE VOTE

DES FEMMES ***
Au lecteur
Notes
Table des matières
Extrait du catalogue V. Giard & E. Brière

LE
VOTE DES FEMMES

DU MÊME AUTEUR

Les Femmes Arabes en Algérie. 1 volume.

Le Droit Politique des Femmes. 1 brochure
(Epuisée).
L’Egalité Sociale et Politique de l’Homme et de
la Femme. 1 brochure.
L’Argent de la Femme. 1 brochure.
Le Nom de la Femme. 1 brochure.
SAINT-AMAND, CHER.—IMPRIMERIE BUSSIÈRE
 HUBERTINE AUCLERT

LE
VOTE des FEMMES

PARIS (5e)
V. G I A R D & E . B R I È R E
LIBRAIRES-ÉDITEURS
16, RUE SOUFFLOT ET 12, RUE TOULLIER
—
1908
 AUX LECTEURS

Ce livre, qui relate les efforts faits en France depuis plus d’un
siècle pour faire entrer les femmes en possession de leurs droits
politiques; envisage le vote des femmes à tous les points de vue, il
réfute les objections qui y sont faites, démontre les avantages qui
résulteront de sa mise en pratique et amène à conclure que les
femmes—par la force du nombre de leurs bulletins de vote—
pourront seules faire triompher la raison de la folie; donc, donner à la
nation entière des garanties de sécurité et de bien-être.
Ce livre mettra ceux qui le liront, à même de bien connaître; et,
en mesure de défendre, cette importante question du suffrage des
femmes qu’il va falloir résoudre, pour pouvoir modifier la société et
faire se réaliser la République.

H. A.
 LE SIMULACRE DU SUFFRAGE
UNIVERSEL

Le suffrage des femmes, c’est l’utilisation

de l’intégralité de l’intelligence et de
l’énergie de la nation, pour réaliser son
mieux être.

Tout le monde connaît le monument élevé au promoteur du

suffrage dit universel. Qui n’a vu, place Voltaire, Ledru-Rollin et son
urne?
Aux jours glacés de l’hiver, comme en l’été brûlant, des hommes
à la figure have et ravinée, aux loques trouées laissant apercevoir la
peau, aux souliers percés qui montrent les pieds nus, s’appuient,
exténués et faméliques à la grille qui entoure le monument.
Quels sont ces malheureux, sans gîte, sans travail et sans pain?
—Ce sont des souverains!
—?
—Oui, des souverains... intermittents.
Périodiquement, pendant tout un jour, ils sont rois! Le soir venu,
ils abdiquent, ou plutôt ils délèguent leur pouvoir à des charlatans
politiques qui se partagent leurs palais, l’or de leurs caisses et
laissent les souverains errants, pourchassés, privés d’abri et de
nourriture.
Les mandataires se nantissent généreusement; mais, ils ne se
préoccupent pas de mettre leurs souverains en état de faire figure
dans le monde, ou de ne point mourir de faim.
 Le dénûment des électeurs sans travail s’offrant au regard, en
même temps que Ledru-Rollin et son urne, démontre au peuple
l’amère dérision du suffrage restreint pompeusement baptisé
universel.
Le penseur lui, interpelle l’organisateur du suffrage.—Pourquoi
dit-il, Ledru-Rollin, n’as-tu pas fait donner le bulletin de vote à la
femme instigatrice d’ordre social; et ainsi, rendu valable ce papier
pouvoir avec lequel les Français pourraient aussi sûrement qu’avec
un chèque obtenir du bien-être et de la liberté?
—Pourquoi Ledru-Rollin n’as-tu pas fait confier à l’éducatrice
accordée à l’homme par la nature, le soin de lui donner conscience
de la valeur de son bulletin? La mission de lui inculquer que voter,
c’est pour l’opprimé initié, le pouvoir de réaliser sa volonté d’être
libre et heureux?
—Pourquoi, Ledru-Rollin, n’as-tu pas fait appeler à voter, au lieu
de l’homme seul, le couple humain et ainsi précipité l’éducation
politique, rendu les Français aptes à garder en permanence leur
souveraineté, capables de se donner à eux-mêmes leur règle et
leurs lois?

Le suffrage est une machine à progrès, qui pour produire des

effets, doit être mise en mouvement par la volonté mâle et femelle
de la nation; mais qui seulement activée par un petit nombre
d’hommes, est faute de force motrice réduite à l’impuissance.
Avant de déprécier le suffrage universel, qu’on le fasse
fonctionner; car, s’il ne donne les résultats promis, c’est parce qu’il
est faussé dans son principe, tronqué dans son application.
De même que beaucoup d’inventions modernes, qui ne
deviennent utilisables qu’à l’aide de certaines combinaisons; le
suffrage a besoin de toutes les énergies féminines et masculines de
la nation, pour devenir l’instrument d’évolution capable de
transformer l’état social.
 Pour tirer profit de l’excellente institution du suffrage, il faut
l’appliquer rigoureusement dans toute l’étendue qu’elle comporte en
l’universalisant. Il ne suffit pas de travestir les mots de notre langue,
de faire l’apothéose d’une contre vérité, pour donner à un suffrage
mutilé l’autorité et la puissance de celui qui engloberait l’intégralité
des Français et des Françaises.
Le suffrage ne produira des résultats mathématiques, que quand
pratiqué par les deux sexes, il aura été soumis à un dressage qui le
rendra conscient.
Actuellement, le suffrage universel n’est pas. Ce qui existe est un
suffrage de fantaisie, qui n’autorise à voter qu’une petite minorité de
la nation. Il exclut en bloc toutes les femmes, les savantes comme
les autres Françaises. Il exclut le grand nombre d’hommes qui sont
militaires, marins, voyageurs, touristes ou privés par jugement de
leurs droits politiques.
En se déplaçant, l’électeur perd sa souveraineté...
Est-ce que le papier-pouvoir ne devrait pas, comme le papier-
monnaie, avoir cours partout?
Le suffrage réduit, faussé, fraudé ne donne pas même une vague
idée de ce que sera le suffrage réellement universel.
Les votes émis ont si peu de poids, les électeurs ont si peu
d’autorité, qu’à chaque élection, les candidats rejetés par eux—
pourvu qu’ils soient gouvernementaux—sont ramassés par les
ministres, qui font un pied de nez aux électeurs souverains, en
hissant à de bonnes places les blackboulés.
Si les élections les plus républicaines ne donnent que des
résultats stériles, si le suffrage fait faillite aux engagements pris en
son nom, c’est parce qu’il est une fiction et non point une réalité,
c’est parce qu’il ne s’appuie que sur une convention, au lieu de tirer
sa puissance de la force du nombre.
Avec le suffrage restrictif, dénaturé qui existe, l’électeur n’a que
l’illusion de la souveraineté; tandis qu’avec le suffrage universel,
c’est-à-dire englobant la nation entière, les femmes comme les
hommes, l’électeur aura la matérialité de la souveraineté.
 DÉGRADÉE CIVIQUE-NÉE

Posséder le papier-pouvoir, facilite de

palper le papier-monnaie.

Aucun homme n’est par son rôle si infime qu’il soit, exclu des
prérogatives de Français et de citoyen, pourquoi donc le rôle des
femmes les priverait-il de leurs droits de Françaises et de
citoyennes? La perpétuation de l’espèce humaine, les soins donnés
aux affaires domestiques sont-ils moins importants que l’attention
apportée à l’exercice d’un métier?
«Celui de nous deux, dit Socrate, glorifiant le travail du ménage,
qui sera le plus industrieux économe, est celui qui apporte le plus en
la société.»
Le devoir imposé à tous est différent pour chacun. Le droit
inhérent à l’individu est égal pour tous.
Le sexe ne confère pas des prérogatives particulières attendu
que les qualités morales et intellectuelles sont indépendantes du
sexe de l’individu qui les possède. On ne peut aujourd’hui faire croire
qu’être homme, étend les facultés intellectuelles d’un individu et
qu’être femme, restreint les facultés intellectuelles d’un autre
individu.
La maternité que l’on objecte aux revendicatrices ne s’oppose
pas plus à l’exercice des droits politiques, qu’elle ne s’oppose à
l’exercice d’un art ou d’un commerce.
Marie-Thérèse d’Autriche eut seize enfants, ce qui ne l’empêcha
point d’être un grand homme d’Etat auquel l’Autriche dût d’exister.
Pour elle, les Magnats hongrois tirèrent leur sabre du fourreau, en
s’écriant: «Mourons pour notre roi, Marie-Thérèse!»
 Mères ou non, mariées ou non mariées, toutes les femmes
doivent exercer leurs droits politiques afin de pouvoir mettre l’ordre
dans la commune et dans l’Etat.

Restez femmes.

A l’idée que la femme va devenir son égale en droits, l’homme se

cabre! Au lieu de comprendre que c’est un auxiliaire qui lui vient pour
atteindre à une vie meilleure, il semble croire qu’on va lui enlever
quelque chose.
Le Français adjure la Française de ne pas chercher à devenir
citoyenne. Il lui dit qu’elle n’aurait rien à gagner au suffrage
universel, que sa supériorité consiste à rester asservie.
Un langage analogue était tenu par les censitaires à ceux qui ne
votaient pas avant 1848. Le «Restez femmes!» d’aujourd’hui,
équivaut au «Restez ouvriers!» d’alors et pareillement signifie:
Demeurez inaptes à améliorer votre condition.
Les femmes qui voient quels avantages sociaux et économiques
les électeurs obtiennent, les femmes, qui constatent qu’en tous les
pays les hommes privés du suffrage s’acharnent à le réclamer;
commencent à comprendre que ce papier-pouvoir, le bulletin de
vote, leur est aussi nécessaire que le papier-monnaie, puisque
posséder l’un rend plus facile de palper l’autre.
Ce sera la carte électorale qui fera rétribuer le travail ménager et
comprendre, parmi les retraités ouvriers, les ménagères.
Les Françaises ne peuvent rester spoliées de la capacité
politique, qu’un député appelle, avec raison, «un commencement de
capital».
Le travail est, en effet, estimé suivant la condition de qui
l’accomplit. L’œuvre de la femme est si dépréciée, obtient un si
dérisoire salaire, parce que cette femme est une mise hors la loi,
une esclave dont l’effort n’est point jugé digne de récompense. Que
l’on fasse entrer la femme dans le droit commun politique et bientôt
sa situation économique sera changée; son labeur, ennobli par sa
qualité de citoyenne, obtiendra un salaire rémunérateur.
*
* *
Les femmes n’échapperont à l’oppression du mari, à l’exploitation
du patron, qu’en devenant, devant l’urne, leurs égales.
La carte électorale dont la Française est privée, est un certificat
d’honorabilité qui assure la considération à quiconque peut le
montrer.
En l’état actuel de la société, le suffrage est pour l’humain la plus
sûre garantie de n’être lésé, ni diminué. C’est comme une assurance
prise pour obtenir droit et justice. Pourquoi la femme ne jouirait-elle
pas de cette assurance?
En devenant citoyenne, la Française remplira encore mieux le
devoir, puisque son rôle d’éducatrice s’étendra de l’unité à la
collectivité humaine et que sa sollicitude maternelle embrassera la
nation entière.
La personne et la condition de la femme dépendant de la
politique qui de toute part l’enserre; dans son propre intérêt comme
dans l’intérêt général, la femme doit participer à la vie publique,
coopérer à la transformation de la société afin de s’assurer de n’être
point sacrifiée en l’organisation sociale future.
On cite cette jolie phrase de M. Thiers que ceux qui dédaignent
le concours féminin feraient bien de méditer:
«Pour régler cette affaire, disait M. Thiers, il me faut mes
femmes» (Mme Thiers et Mlle Dosne). Ces paroles prouvent que
même l’homme d’Etat, que les louanges purent rendre orgueilleux,
reconnaissait aux femmes des facultés particulières capables de
compléter les siennes. Si ces deux parties du tout humain, l’homme
et la femme, semblaient indispensables à M. Thiers pour régler une
affaire privée difficile, combien est donc plus indispensable encore le
concours de l’homme et de la femme, pour bien diriger les affaires
publiques!
Le suffrage des femmes, c’est l’utilisation de l’intégralité, de
l’intelligence et de l’énergie de la nation pour réaliser son mieux être.
Rapprocher hommes et femmes par la politique, ce sera faire
s’établir entre les sexes une émulation salutaire pour le progrès.