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NG50-5-BE-INS-TR-AB-00-0102
NG50-5-BE-INS-TR-AB-00-0102
NG50-5-BE-INS-TR-AB-00-0102
BASIC ENGINEERING
_____________
RELIABILITY STUDY
This document is based on the riser top HIPPS design defined in the
revision 3 of the drawing NG50-5-BE-PRO-DW-AB-300-001. This revision 3 is
now super-seeded.
CONTRACTOR shall use this document as a guideline and will update it
taking into account the HIPPS design reflected in the revision 4 of the
drawing NG50-5-BE-PRO-DW-AB-300-001 (i.e. the option case).
SAPETRO
REVISION STATUS
N° NG 50 5 BE INS TR AB 000 102
1 C
AKPO FIELD DEVELOPMENT PROJECT
CONTENTS
1. INTRODUCTION...................................................................................................................... 5
2. CONCLUSIONS....................................................................................................................... 6
3. REFERENCES ........................................................................................................................ 8
9.1. Results........................................................................................................................ 30
9.1.1. HIPPS reliability excluding PSS protection layer.......................................... 30
9.1.2. HIPPS reliability including PSS protection layer........................................... 30
9.1.3. Protection against critical scenari 9 and 10. ................................................. 31
9.1.4. Protection against critical scenari 12 and 13. ............................................... 31
9.1.5. Protection against critical scenario 17. ......................................................... 31
9.2. Conclusion.................................................................................................................. 31
10. APPENDICES........................................................................................................................ 34
1. INTRODUCTION
From the overpressure analysis report [6], there is a HIPPS function to achieve at
the flowline arrival on topsides. Event trees show that ten scenari may be critical:
- Category 4 events:
- Scenario 17B: Depacking of 8 flowlines from pressure slightly below
109 barg through large chokes and ignition of the gas cloud.
- Scenario 13B: Simultaneous opening of 2 ESDV of 2 flowlines from
ESD1 shut-down, small and large chokes full open and ignition of the
gas cloud (pressure greater than 160 barg).
- Scenario 12B: Simultaneous opening of 2 ESDV of 2 flowlines from
ESD1 shut-down, small and large chokes full open and ignition of the
gas cloud (pressure smaller than 160 barg).
- Category 3 events:
- Scenario 17A: Depacking of 8 flowlines from pressure slightly below
109 barg through large chokes and no ignition of the gas cloud.
- Scenario 13A: Simultaneous opening of 2 ESDV of 2 flowlines from
ESD1 shut-down, small and large chokes full open and no ignition of
the gas cloud.
- Scenario 12A: Simultaneous opening of 2 ESDV of 2 flowlines from
ESD1 shut-down, small and large chokes full open and no ignition of
the gas cloud (pressure smaller than 160 barg).
- Scenario 10B: Opening of 1 ESDV of 1 flowline from ESD1 shutdown,
small and large choke full open and ignition of the gas cloud
(pressure greater than 160 barg).
- Scenario 9B: Opening of 1 ESDV of 1 flowline from ESD1 shutdown,
small and large choke full open and ignition of the gas cloud
(pressure smaller than 160 barg).
- Category 2 events:
- Scenario 10A: Opening of 1 ESDV of 1 flowline from ESD1 shutdown,
small and large choke full open and no ignition of the gas cloud
(pressure greater than 160 barg.
- Scenario 9A: Opening of 1 ESDV of 1 flowline from ESD1 shutdown,
small and large choke full open and no ignition of the gas cloud
(pressure smaller than 160 barg).
The aim of the Reliability study is to calculate the reliability level of the Safety
Instrumented System consisting of the existing PSS system and the HIPPS, for
these scenari. A SIL requirement is also calculated for the HIPPS.
2. CONCLUSIONS
Taking into account the frequency of the initiating events, the maximum yearly
frequency of the ten above scenari was calculated. These values are plotted on
the annual frequency / consequence diagram below.
Consequence
Severity
Catastrophic 4 Target
For
Improv. I
Major 3 Intolerable
Risk
II
Significant 2
III
Minor 1 Tolerable
Risk
Annual Frequency
All scenari are outside of the diagram range. The corresponding unrevealed
unavailability of the HIPPS system is as follows:
The selected design for the riser top HIPPS provides annual frequency of the
blow-by scenario within the Tolerable risk area. Therefore the “base case” HIPPS
design is acceptable. This confirms the assessment of the analysis of
overpressure risk [6].
It is important to note that these results are associated to the testing philosophy
proposed below. Indeed, the testing in staggering configuration reduces the
probability of occurrence of the scenario 12B from the boarder line of the “target
for improvement” (1 x 10-5) to the “tolerable risk” area (5.9 x 10-6).
For the other scenari, the staggering configuration was not necessary since they
were all in the “tolerable risk” area.
AKPO FIELD DEVELOPMENT PROJECT
The following testing requirement is assumed in this study for each item:
• PSHHs and pilot valves: full testing every 3 months for HIPPS and PSS.
• SDV's:
- Partial stroking every three months.
- Full closure every year.
- Staggered full testing between flowlines.
Each HIPPS flowline shall be fully tested at 12 month interval. During that test the
full closure of all valves will be performed. During this period partial stroking at
three month interval shall be performed. All HIPPS flowline shall not be
simultaneously tested. There will be 1.5 month interval between successive
HIPPS flowline full testing. It is mandatory to stick to this 1.5 month interval.
The above mentioned conclusion is based on the assumption that the HIPPS
logic solver is SIL 3.
HIPPS SIL
3. REFERENCES
Each top riser is equipped with its own set of PSHHs and SDVs.
• Failure rates are constant, i.e. the valves, and the sensors, are no longer in
their infant mortality period, and they have not yet entered their wear-out
period.
LOGIC
SOLVER
Small
choke valve To
Large separators
choke valve PSHH 11a PSHH 11b
2oo3 2oo3
SDV 2
From wells
SDV 1
HIPPS EQUIPMENT
Figure 1
AKPO FIELD DEVELOPMENT PROJECT
SDV 8x
Production
Separator
SDV 2x
SDV 1x's
Then, a Failure Mode and Effects Analysis was carried out for each item making
up the system.
The reliability of the system was modelled with a fault tree. The unwanted event
is considered as the top event of the fault tree. Then the tree is built by a top-
down process.
A common cause failure analysis is performed for each set of redundant items.
Common cause failures are shown on the fault trees.
Fault trees were drafted using the ARALIA / SIMTREE software package (see
description in § 10.2).
AKPO FIELD DEVELOPMENT PROJECT
Reliability data (see § 10.3) were extracted from openly available reliability data
sources, for each item which failure is shown on the fault tree.
Operational data (e.g. test frequencies and test policy) were provided by TOTAL.
Common cause failures were quantified using the β-model as presented by IEC
61508.
Fault trees were quantified using the ARALIA / SIMTREE software package,
according to the characteristics of the test policies.
STEP 5 – SYNTHESIS
Results of the calculations are given for each fault tree. The reliability of the
HIPPS is provided together with the main contributors to the unreliability.
AKPO FIELD DEVELOPMENT PROJECT
Functional description
STEP 1
RELIABILITY
MODELLING Common cause failure
analysis IEC 61508
RELIABILITY AND
OPERATIONAL DATA
SELECTION Common cause failures IEC 61508
quantification
STEP 4
Reliability calculations ARALIA/SIMTREE
QUANTITATIVE
ANALYSIS
STEP 5
Results, conclusions and
SYNTHESIS recommendations
6. FAILURE ANALYSIS
As accurate information is not yet available on the logic solver, such classification
was not implemented. The OREDA classification was used instead of, without
trying to split relevant failure modes into safe/unsafe or detected/not detected
failures. Accordingly, a standard value was used for the failure mode coverage of
the partial stroking.
A detailed FMEA should be performed at DETAILED ENGINEERING level
when more information will become available.
7. RELIABILITY MODELLING
Fault trees “PSHH11a failure to detect” and “PSHH11b failure to detect” are
shown on Figure 7.
Outdoors equipment of one HIPPS are all located within the same area (riser top
and manifold area).
The logic solver common to the 8 HIPPS shall be installed in a dedicated HIPPS
cabinet located inside one of the FPSO Instrument Technical rooms on Topsides.
7.2.3. Sensors
Diversity
The three pressure transmitters for each set of 3 PSHH will be from different
vendors and model.
AKPO FIELD DEVELOPMENT PROJECT
7.2.4. Valves
SDVs
7.2.5. Utilities
Electric power
The power supply shall be through 24 V DC UPS and distribution panel with two
separate feeders.
Pneumatic power
HVAC
Logic solver shall hardwired logic solver, minimizing the risk of human
intervention.
Fluid
- Characteristics of the fluid are such that valve partial stroking is unlikely to be
the cause of valve failure to fully close.
- Each PSHH has its own tapping, minimizing the risk of 3 PSHH be isolated from
the fluid by a plug.
A HAZID (8.1.1.d.) was carried out: no specific hazard was identified within
manifold area and for technical rooms.
Environment
HIPPS indoor equipment shall be designed for outdoor temperature and relative
humidity corresponding to HVAC failure.
Failure of 1 HIPPS
G1
No isolation Logic
Solver
G5
PSHH11a PSHH11b
fail ure to fail ure to
Random failure on Common cause Common cause Random fai lure on detect detect
SDV1 and SDV2 failure on 2 SDV fail ure on 2 SDV SDV1 and SDV2 fail
{7} {8}
fail to move fail to move fail to full y close to full y close
G4 ccf_2valvesFtoM ccf_2valvesFtoFC G8
SDV1FtoFC SDV2FtoFC
Figure 4
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Failure of 1 HIPPS
and protection layer
G12
No closure of
SDV1
No closure
of SDV2 G16
{2}
G15 G14
No signal from
No signal from PSHH11a No signal from PSHH1
PSHH11b
G18 G20
G19
Figure 5
AKPO FIELD DEVELOPMENT PROJECT
{2}
No closure of
SDV2
G23
G22 G21
Common
CCF on logic No signal to SDV1
cause failure Common SDV2 failure SDV2 failure
on 3 set of solver and G24 cause failure to fully close to move
PSHH PSS/ESD logics on 3 pilot
valves
ccf_3PSHH CCFcontrolunits SDV2FtoFC SDV2FtoM
CCF-3PV
No signal from
No signal from PSHH11a PSHH11b
G27
PSHH1 PSS
Figure 6
AKPO FIELD DEVELOPMENT PROJECT
{7}
PSHH11a failure to
detect
G62
PSHH11b failure
to detect
2/3
Figure 7
AKPO FIELD DEVELOPMENT PROJECT
PSHH testing
It is assumed that:
• The logic solver can not detect all failures of the PSHHs, specific tests are
to be performed.
• Each PSHH is unavailable during its test, the duration of the test being 1 hr.
• If a single PSHH is found failed the repair is performed within 4 hr. The riser
is not shutdown.
• Should 2 PSHHs of 1 group of 3 be found failed on testing, the riser
will be shutdown until the failed sensors are repaired.
• During its testing, each PSHH is isolated from the flowline. The probability
to forget to re-open the manual isolating valve is 10-3 (operator error).
Valves testing
It is assumed that:
• Each SDV is unavailable during its test, the duration of the test being 1 hr.
• Should any Valve fail to close upon testing, the riser will be shutdown
as long as the failed valve is not repaired.
• The test coverage for the partial stroking is 75 %.
• During its testing, each pilot valve added to existing SDV is isolated from
the SDV. The probability to forget to re-connect it is 10-3 (operator error).
AKPO FIELD DEVELOPMENT PROJECT
Logic solver
It is assumed that:
• Autodiagnostic tests are performed on a regular basis. These tests have no
impact on the availability of the logic solver.
• Should the logic solver be detected as failed, all the riser tops will be
shutdown until it is repaired.
Human factor
It is assumed that:
• Testing / repair team is trained to report, in an efficient way, the way the
failures that have occurred.
• Safety management is aware of the meaning of the test reports, and makes
the decision (i.e. to initiate the test on another well so as to detect common
cause failures) without delay.
8.2.1. Items
8.2.3. Tests
Table 1 provides the value of the failure rates used for the fault tree
quantification. Origin of the failure rates is given in § 8.4.
Table 1
AKPO FIELD DEVELOPMENT PROJECT
Item Configuration
Repair time Test duration
Failure rate available error
(hr) (hr)
during test probability
PSHH 4 1 NO 10-3
SDV N.A. 1 NO 0
Table 1
HIPPS Pilot
1 1 NO 10-3
valve
Logic solver N.A. 0 YES 0
Table 2
AKPO FIELD DEVELOPMENT PROJECT
9.1. Results
3.5000e-3
3.0000e-3
2.5000e-3
2.0000e-3 Pr[SSommet]
1.5000e-3
1.0000e-3
5.0000e-4
3.5000e-3
3.0000e-3
2.5000e-3
2.0000e-3
Pr[SSommet]
1.5000e-3
1.0000e-3
5.0000e-4
0.0000e+0
0.0000 5000.0000 10000.0000
AKPO FIELD DEVELOPMENT PROJECT
One HIPPS (and existing protection layer) is to be activated for scenari 9 and 10.
The maximum unrevealed unavailability is 3.4 x 10-3.
9.2. Conclusion
All the scenari are within the Tolerable risk area, with the exception of
scenario12B which is on the borderline (1 x 10-5).
These HIPS unrevealed unavailability are resulting from the following testing
procedure:
AKPO FIELD DEVELOPMENT PROJECT
Each HIPPS flowline shall be fully tested at 12 month interval. During that test the
full closure of all valves will be performed. During this period partial stroking at
three month interval shall be performed. All HIPPS flowline shall not be
simultaneously tested. There will be 1.5 month interval between successive
HIPPS flowline full testing. It is mandatory to stick to this 1.5 month interval.
AKPO FIELD DEVELOPMENT PROJECT
Table 1
AKPO FIELD DEVELOPMENT PROJECT
10. APPENDICES
10.1.1. Definitions
The CCF factor β is the ratio of the CCF rate to the random failure rate.
A. Method objective
B. Method description
Several stages are involved in the correct application of the fault tree method.
This is undoubtedly the most important stage because all the later analysis
depends on the right choice of this event. This choice is in fact made before the
real fault tree analysis. This determination of the unwanted event is not part of the
method itself.
The unwanted event becomes the event at the top of the tree that is to say at the
departure point of the deductive process. The causes of the top event are looked
for: when they are found, each of these events is considered as being an "effect"
for which the causes are in turn looked for.
The process is repeated until item failure level ("basic event") is reached. When
an intermediate event has several possible independent causes they are linked
by an OR gate. When an intermediate event must have several possible causes
to occur they are linked by an AND gate.
The deductive process is followed through until the elementary events can be
characterised by the following criteria:
- They are independent from each other.
- Their probabilities of occurrence can be estimated (even if this estimation is
uncertain).
- The specialists involved do not feel the need (or do not have the means) to
divide them up into simpler combinations of events.
AKPO FIELD DEVELOPMENT PROJECT
This stage was not implemented for the study. As the fault tree is the graphical
representation of a logical equation, it can be analysed with Boole's algebra
rules. It is therefore possible to deduce the different combinations of elementary
events leading to the occurrence of the unwanted event. These combinations are
called "cut sets". Some of these cut sets are minimal. This means that all the
elementary events contained in the cut set are necessary and sufficient for the
unwanted event to occur. As all the non-minimal cut sets are included in the
minimal cut sets, knowledge of the latter is necessary and sufficient for all the
information contained in the fault tree to be translated.
The minimal cut sets are classified according to the number of elementary events
it contains:
- Order 1: single fault - unique fault.
- Order 2: double fault.
- Order 3: triple fault.
- Etc.
As single faults are generally more probable than doubles, and doubles more
probable than the triples, they can thus be classified qualitatively. While this
classification is not valid in every case (if the faults have very different
probabilities), it is enough to be simply aware of its limits. It is nevertheless
interesting where no numeric data is available.
The quantitative analysis of a fault tree can be carried out at two levels (after
collection of reliability data):
- Minimal cut set level: each minimal cut set is quantified; they can therefore be
classified by order of decreasing probabilities. This classification is naturally
more specific than the one drawn up at the qualitative analysis stage.
- Unwanted event stage: the calculation of the probability of the unwanted event
from elementary fault probabilities poses no theoretical problem. However, this
calculation rapidly becomes difficult due to the growth of the tree without a
calculation code and, even in this case, approximations are necessary.
C. Remarks
- Not all the system faults can be studied in the fault tree model. A fault tree
corresponds to an unwanted event defined elsewhere.
- A fault tree is only applicable for one phase of the system life cycle.
- The fault tree does not mean that all the causes of appearance of an event are
taken into account. There is no guarantee as to the exhaustiveness of the
study; only the most probable or foreseen faults are considered.
AKPO FIELD DEVELOPMENT PROJECT
ARALIA is certified by DGAC (French official authority for Civil Aviation) for
the dependability studies of business aircraft (Falcon) made by Dassault Aviation
company. Dassault Aviation prescribes the use of Cecilia Aralia to every
subcontractor involved in Falcon 7X program.
SUPPLIER:
GFI Consulting
TECHNICAL PAPERS
As fault trees are designed (then analysed) with the ARALIA/SIMTREE software
package, the symbolism used by ARALIA/SIMTREE is shown below:
EVENTS MEANING
BASIC EVENT
CIRCLE
Basic event needing no further development
UNDEVELOPED EVENT
Detailed qualitative analysis not carried out
DIAMOND
because of lack of information (but taken into
account in the calculations)
ARALIA/SIMTREE SYMBOLISM
Figure 10-1
AKPO FIELD DEVELOPMENT PROJECT
10.2.4. Example
Let us consider a circuit of water consisting of a valve and two 100% redundant
pumps:
P1
Entrance Exit
V
P2
The fault tree corresponding to the unwanted event "no water at exit", given that
there is water at the entrance, is shown below (no common cause failure):
No water
at exit
+ "OR" gate
Failure of Failure of
pump P1 pump P2
AKPO FIELD DEVELOPMENT PROJECT
Most of the reliability data were extracted from the OREDA 02 handbook [11].
This public handbook provides reliability information on equipment used in the
North Sea and in the Adriatic sea.
Additional information come from the NPRD-95, public handbook. It gives failure
rate on equipment (e.g. valves) and on items (e.g. solenoid valves) used in
various environmental conditions.
Unfortunately, reliability data handbooks provide failure rates, only. These failure
rates λ are a mixture of the "true" failure rate λ* and of the "true" probability to fail
upon demand γ.
Accordingly, high testing frequencies are meaningless as tests reveal some of
the failures occurred during the "dormant" period, only.
10.3.2. Terminology
Reference documents do not use the same terminology as the reliability data
sources. The aim of this paragraph is to present both terminologies so as to
explain how the reliability data were selected.
10.3.2.1. IEC
Following definitions are provided within IEC 61508 part 4 [9] and IEC 61511 part
1 [10].
Error
Discrepancy between a computed, observed or measured specified or
theoretically correct value or condition
Human error
Mistake
Human action or inaction that can produce an unintended result.
Unrevealed
Covert
In relation to hardware and software faults not found by the diagnostic test or
during normal operation
10.3.2.2. OREDA
Failure Mode
The effect by which a failure is observed on the failed unit. The failure modes
describe the loss of required system function(s) that result from failures, or an
undesired change in state or condition. The failure mode is related to the
equipment unit level. The failure mode is a description of the various abnormal
states/conditions of an equipment unit, and the possible transition from correct to
incorrect state.
The first class typically comprises events like fail-to-start / stop and fail-to-open /
close, i.e. directly related to a failure of the function of the unit. The latter category
can either be related to function and condition as follows:
a) Undesired change of condition (e.g. vibration, leakage). This category does not
affect the function immediately, but may do so if not attended to within a
reasonable time.
b) Undesired change in manner of operation (e.g. spurious stop, high output)
DEGRADED FAILURE. A failure which is not critical, but which prevents the
system from providing its output within specifications. Such a failure would
usually, but not necessarily, be gradual or partial, and may develop into a critical
failure in time.
10.3.2.3. Conclusion
For systems which are called upon demand in emergency conditions only
CRITICAL failure modes are to be considered. If an equipment failure is either
degraded or incipient type it is capable of providing its output, the failure will be
repaired later on.
Test coverage
Fractional decrease in the probability of unrevealed dangerous hardware failure
resulting from the operation of the tests.
Test interval
Interval between tests to detect failures.
Pressure sensor
0 .7
Using the formula (T = operational time) if no failure is recorded, it comes:
T
λ (critical failure mode) = 0.48 x 10-6 hr-1
It is possible that the reliability of pressure sensors has increased with the
time as:
- No critical failure was recorded by OREDA 2002.
- The degraded failure mode was divided by 3 within 5 years.
Then above failure rate may be pessimistic.
The failure rate to consider for the “spurious” failure mode is then:
0.42
λ = (0.42 + 0.14 x ) x 10-6 hr-1 = 0.47 x 10-6 hr-1
0.71 + 0.42
ESD/PSD valves
Logic solver
It is assumed that the logic solver is SIL 3. Accordingly, its probability to fail upon
demand can be considered to be:
γ = 5 x 10-4
PSS
Pilot valve
Reliability data handbooks provide failure data on equipment (e.g. a valve with its
actuator and its control unit), mainly. It is difficult to have information on the
reliability of components (e.g. a pilot valve). NPRD-95 provides following
information:
“Valve, diverting/sequency, 3 way” failure rate: 0.37 x 10-6 hr-1
CCF are likely to affect more than one item. Accordingly, the probability of CCF is
likely to be the dominant factor in determining the overall probability of failure of a
redundant system.
The "β-factor" model assumes that the failure rate of an item is:
λ = λi + λc
with :
λi = random failure rate
λc = ccf rate
And : λc = βλ
where β is a constant whose value depends on the CCF defenses applied to the
system.
The β-factor method is the only CCF factor given in the IEC 61508-6.
These check-lists are used for assessing the quality of the measures against
common cause failures. Two values are assigned for each of these measures
("Score" column):
AKPO FIELD DEVELOPMENT PROJECT
- Y for measures whose contribution will not be improved by the use of diagnostic
tests.
- X for measures whose contribution will be improved by the use of diagnostic
tests.
70 to 120 1% 2%
45 to 70 2% 5%
Less than 45 5% 10 %
AKPO FIELD DEVELOPMENT PROJECT
Are all signal cables for the channels routed separately at all
positions?
NO 0
YES 0
Diversity / Redundancy
Complexity/design/application/maturity/experience
Are all field failures fully analysed with feedback into the
design? (Documentary evidence of the procedure is
required)
NO 0
AKPO FIELD DEVELOPMENT PROJECT
Competence/training/safety culture