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2024_Arab Israel Normalization Abraham Accords-55-78
2024_Arab Israel Normalization Abraham Accords-55-78
Najimdeen Bakare
Introduction
With its abundant energy resources, rich cultural and civilizational
heritage, and deep-rooted ancient history, the Middle East’s political
landscape stands as an embodiment of multifaceted security dynamics.
Through its substantial oil reserves, the region has significantly shaped
modern international relations. Notably, the formation of the Organi-
zation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), OPEC’s role in
the oil crisis of the 1970s, and the subsequent Anglo-American rollback
policy, as well as the establishment of the petrodollar system (İŞERİ,
2009) stand as enduring historical facts. Within the context of this region,
securitization takes on various forms and dimensions. Halliday (2012)
N. Bakare (B)
Centre for International Peace & Stability (CIPS), Department of Peace and
Conflict Studies, National University of Sciences & Technology (NUST),
Islamabad, Pakistan
e-mail: drnajimdeen.pcs@nipcons.nust.edu.pk
National Interest
The concept and notion of national interest have prompted extensive
scholarly discourse, yet a universally accepted definition remains elusive
(Ebegbulem, 2010). It is contextualized as the embodiment of a state’s
intentions. Although it holds a prominent place within the traditional
realist framework, national interest continues to be a focal point for archi-
tects of foreign policy, particularly those aligned with the realist school
of thought. The inquiry into what constitutes the national interest of
a nation remains an enduringly unresolved question, even as scholars
endeavor to anchor this idea within the context of foreign policy, elab-
orated upon through conceptual and theoretical lenses. Croft (1997)
contends that the uncertainties that characterized the League of Nations
in the 1930s bolstered the proponents of the realist approach, who sought
to define international relations and position states’ national interests as
tools for augmenting power. This echoes Morgenthau’s definition, which
aligns national interest (as embodied in foreign policy) with power—a
critical component that secures a state’s existence (Morgenthau, 1948,
1949). For Morgenthau, international relations encompass the politics of
interests among states, making it imperative for each state to pursue its
national interest in order to ensure its survival (Pham, 2008).
The determination of the factors influencing national interest or the
identification of what may be considered as national interest often guides
a state’s behavioral patterns in its foreign relations and shapes its aspi-
rations vis-à-vis other states (Alden & Aran, 2017). In line with these
3 DE-SECURITIZING AND NORMALIZING A REGIONAL ACTOR … 49
Abraham Accord
In his farewell address to the American people in 1796, George Wash-
ington issued a cautionary message against foreign entanglements and
alliances: “ Why forego the advantages of so peculiar a situation? Why
quit our own to stand upon foreign ground? Why, by interweaving our
destiny with that of any part of Europe, entangle our peace and prosperity
in the toils of European ambition, rivalship, interest, humor, or caprice?”
(George Washington, 1796). However, over the course of many years
and driven by various imperatives, American domestic and foreign poli-
cies, representing national interests, have become deeply intertwined with
Middle East politics and conflicts. This entanglement has led the United
States to engage in numerous wars and contribute to peace initiatives in
3 DE-SECURITIZING AND NORMALIZING A REGIONAL ACTOR … 51
the region. Notable among these initiatives are the Camp David Accords
and the Oslo Accords, which stand as significant legacies (Quandt, 1986;
Shlaim, 1994; U.S. State Department, nd). These accords provide context
and insight into the Abraham Accords, while underscoring Washington’s
pivotal and systemic role in the broader landscape of Middle Eastern
politics.
Amidst the structural/systemic, regional, and domestic dimensions of
the Middle East conflicts (Halliday, 2012), the prolonged Israel-Palestine
conflict occupies a central position. From the inception of Israel in
1948 and the ensuing Arab–Israeli wars, Washington has not only medi-
ated to resolve hostilities between the Arab nations and Israel, but also
endeavored to facilitate a solution to the enduring Israeli-Palestinian
conflict. Adding to the array of peace initiatives in the region is the
Abraham Accords—an agreement signed by Israel, the UAE, Bahrain,
Morocco, and Sudan—though initiated, coordinated, and orchestrated by
the United States. The events and negotiations leading to the accords
exemplify classic carrot-and-stick diplomacy, with the Trump adminis-
tration employing imposition and incentives (Ahmed & Abbas, 2021;
Guzanski & Marshall, 2020). While the accords may bear the imprint
of Trump’s influence in the Middle East, the current Biden administra-
tion displays a propensity to build upon this legacy, aiming to expand the
list of participating countries (Khalid, 2022).
While the success of the accords rests upon the diplomatic persistence
of the United States, Guzanski and Marshall (2020, 379) caution against
disregarding the role of regional actors, particularly the Gulf Cooper-
ation Council (GCC), in the overall process. For them, “the formal
announcements only serve to bring the incremental progress in bilateral
relations between Israel and several Arab Gulf states since the turn of this
century into plain view.” Ferziger and Bahgat (2020) further argue that
as the “cold peace” maintained by Cairo and Amman with Israel recedes,
a “warm peace” between the GCC and Israel is gradually nurtured.
Scholars generally position the accords as a demonstration of prioritizing
national interests over inherent sentiments, particularly when grounded
in the economic and strategic advantages of the agreements (Ji-Hyang,
2022; Kurtzer-Ellenbogen, 2022) and the potential for strategic gains
(Guzansky, 2022). Feierstein and Guzansky (2022) critically assessed the
accords, gauging the “distance traveled” by the accord partners and eval-
uating the inability of the accords “to produce tangible improvements in
the Israeli-Palestinian calculus.”
52 N. BAKARE
Strategic Level
Given the previously discussed perspectives on threat perception, I
contend that within the broader context of the Muslim world, and
more specifically, among Arab states, Israel’s strategic threat perception
is characterized by several key factors. These include Israel’s controver-
sial nuclear weapons and technology, its Zionist ideology, agenda, and
policies, the threat posed to the realization of a Palestinian state or what
Edward Said refers to as the “question of Palestine,” the colonial percep-
tion of Israel (Said, 1978),1 the sense of cognitive defeat among Arabs
in the Arab–Israeli conflicts, the securitized public opinion within the
Muslim world, and the potential threat of Israel’s interference in domestic
politics.
From a strategic standpoint, Israel has long been regarded as the most
powerful regional actor (militarily) in both the immediate and broader
Middle East (Roth, 2009; Spiegel, 1990). It is not simply recognized
as a powerful state within the region, but it also behaves as one, which
inevitably shapes its interactions with its neighbors and consequently
influences their threat perception. If Israel’s military might serve as a
reflection of its power politics, it aligns with analyses demonstrating
how asymmetric power dynamics shape perceptions of threat and inform
foreign policy decisions (Gries, 2022; Rousseau, 2007). Beyond power
politics and threat perception, Israel’s status as a contentious nuclear state
raises concerns among its neighbors, rendering it a perceived threat (Kam,
1995). Moreover, Israel’s diplomatic potency is bolstered by its strong
alignment and close ties to, as well as the support it garners from, Wash-
ington. Provoking Israel is synonymous with challenging US interests
in the region, and thus a matter of considerable significance within US
domestic politics (Lieberman, 2009).
It is arguable that both Israel and many Arab monarchical states share
a common conservative ethos. Interestingly, Jost et al. (2009) contend
that conservatives tend to be more attuned to threats than liberals. In
a subsequent study, Jost et al. (2009) further establish the correlations
between perceptions of threat and conservatism.
Israel’s foundation as an ideological state has significantly shaped its
political culture over time (Rynhold, 2002). Rooted in the revolutionary
1 Said, E. (1978). The Idea of Palestine in the West. MERIP Reports, 70, 3–11.
https://doi.org/10.2307/3011576.
3 DE-SECURITIZING AND NORMALIZING A REGIONAL ACTOR … 55
Regional Level
The securitization or threat perception of Israel extends beyond its terri-
torial boundaries, with its extra-territorial implications notably evident
in the attitudes of regional organizations and institutions toward Israel.
Besides the United Nations, the establishment of the Organization of
Islamic Cooperation (OIC) in 1969 is intimately linked to the perceived
threat posed by Israel. Positioned as an advocate for the Palestinian cause,
the OIC presents itself as a unifying platform for Muslims against Israel’s
occupation of Palestine. While its symbolic significance is noteworthy, the
role that the OIC plays in shaping threat perception and securitization
discourse around Israel cannot be underestimated. An analytical frame-
work such as that of Balzacq et al. (2016) illustrates the Israel-Palestine
situation as the “context,” with the OIC embodying the “power” (elite)
shaping the discourse, and the Muslim world constituting the “audi-
ence”—all of which align with the process of securitization. The OIC’s
influence extends beyond Arab regionalism, encompassing Muslim soci-
eties spanning from Indonesia to Gambia. Its broad reach suggests
the potential for a wider “audience” and the plausibility of substantial
acceptance of its narratives regarding Israel within the same audience.
In addition to the OIC, the Arab League stands out as one of the
oldest functional regional (Muslim) organizations, primarily established
to champion Arab nationalism and unity. Established in 1949, around the
same time as Israel’s inception, the “Palestinian cause” became a central
raison d’être for the League. As an actor in the securitization of Israel,
the League has consistently advocated for the pre-1967 borders and
demanded recognition and legitimacy of Israel based on those borders.
The Arab Peace Initiative, endorsed by the Arab League during its March
2002 Beirut summit, remained a foundational principle in its dealings
with Israel until the emergence of the Abraham Accords (Al Jazeera,
2017).
While the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) was initially formed in
1981 for socio-economic and political reasons, geostrategic considera-
tions have increasingly dominated the group’s agenda. Scholars posit that
safeguarding the sovereignties of the princely city-states from powerful
regional actors like Iran was a significant driver behind its creation
(Siraj & Bakare, 2022). On the one hand, Iran, and on the other hand,
Israel’s position (before the Abraham Accords) in the region, both bear
significance for the GCC. While scholarly discourse might temper the
3 DE-SECURITIZING AND NORMALIZING A REGIONAL ACTOR … 57
Societal Level
Regardless of how the political landscape in the region is understood, the
authoritarian structure in place does not entirely overshadow the voice of
the people—in fact, instances where the interests of the state and society
align are plentiful. Regardless of how the political landscape in the region
is understood, the authoritarian structure in place does not entirely over-
shadow the voice of the people—in fact, instances where the interests of
the state and society align are plentiful. One such alignment could be the
threat perception of Israel. This confluence of interests often benefits the
state, which leverages it to bolster its legitimacy. Stemming from threat
perception and securitization, the state’s view of Israel trickles down into
society in two main ways. First, the political context—monarchic polit-
ical cultures predominantly enable a top-down narrative shaping process,
often centered around the leader’s persona (Ferziger & Bahgat, 2020).
Second, facilitated by religious scholars and institutions (which are gener-
ally aligned with the monarchy), the legitimization of the elites’ desires
becomes conceivable. This is especially relevant in a Sunni Islam context
where authority must be obeyed and not revolted against, as long as the
leader adheres to Shariah—Islamic law. This synergy between political and
religious elites hastens a trickle-down effect within societies susceptible to
the inflamed Israel-Palestine conflict and politics.
Conclusion
The normalization of ties with Israel is just as divisive and complex
as the previous securitization of Israel. Among the Gulf Cooperation
Council (GCC) countries, the absence of a unified and consistent foreign
policy toward Israel is undoubtedly influenced by a multitude of factors,
including economic considerations, pursuit of independent foreign policy,
and intricate local politics. While Bahrain and the UAE have taken bold
steps toward normalization, Kuwait’s public opposition to any form
of ties that do not address the Palestinian occupation, Saudi Arabia’s
cautious yet strategic approach, Qatar’s emphasis on an independent
foreign policy from its GCC counterparts, and Oman’s unique stance
within the GCC must all be closely analyzed. North African states and
several non-Arab Muslim nations share a similar predicament, maintaining
their pro-Palestine foreign policy stance.
One crucial aspect that cannot be overlooked is that the very reasons
and factors, such as power dynamics, national interest, and leadership roles
that shape public discourse around securitization also play a pivotal role in
shaping the discourse around normalization. The impact of the Abraham
62 N. BAKARE
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