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planning & scheduling Handout New ....
planning & scheduling Handout New ....
By Temesgen G. Page 1
CHAPTER – ONE
Introduction
A program is defined as a group of related projects, subprograms, and program activities
managed in a coordinated way to obtain benefits not available from managing them individually.
Programs may include elements of related work outside the scope of the discrete projects in the
program. A project may or may not be part of a program but a program will always have
projects.
Program management is the application of knowledge, skills, tools, and techniques to a
program in order to meet the program requirements and to obtain benefits and control not
available by managing projects individually.
A project: is a temporary endeavor undertaken to create a unique product or service with a
defined start and end point, undertaken by an individual or organization to meet specific
objectives within defined schedule, cost and performance parameters.
Project management: is the application of knowledge, skills, tools, and techniques applied to
project activities in order to meet or exceed stakeholder needs and expectations from a project.
Project management: is the application of knowledge, skills, tools, and techniques to project
activities to meet the project requirements. Project management is accomplished through the
appropriate application and integration of the 47 logically grouped project management
processes, which are categorized into five Process Groups. These five
Managing a project typically includes, but is not limited to:
Identifying requirements;
Addressing the various needs, concerns, and expectations of the stakeholders in
planning and executing the project;
Setting up, maintaining, and carrying out communications among stakeholders that are
active, effective, and collaborative in nature;
Managing stakeholders towards meeting project requirements and creating project
deliverables;
Balancing the competing project constraints, which include, but are not limited to:
Scope,
Quality,
By Temesgen G. Page 2
Schedule,
Budget,
Resources, and
Risks.
The specific project characteristics and circumstances can influence the constraints on which
the project management team needs to focus.
The PMBOK® Guide describes the nature of project management processes in terms of the
integration between the processes, their interactions, and the purposes they serve. Project
management processes are grouped into five
Categories known as Project Management Process Groups (or Process Groups):
Initiating Process Group. Those processes performed to define a new project or a new phase of
an existing project by obtaining authorization to start the project or phase.
Planning Process Group. Those processes required to establish the scope of the project, refine
the objectives, and define the course of action required to attain the objectives that the project
was undertaken to achieve.
Executing Process Group. Those processes performed to complete the work defined in the
project management plan to satisfy the project specifications.
Monitoring and Controlling Process Group. Those processes required to track, review, and
regulate the progress and performance of the project; identify any areas in which changes to the
plan are required; and initiate the corresponding changes.
Closing Process Group. Those processes performed to finalize all activities across all Process
Groups to formally close the project or phase.
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Figure ... Project Management Process Groups
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Figure -- Process Groups Interact in a Phase or Project
The basic planning steps are as follows.in project management
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Delay and cost overrun on construction projects
Due to such problems there are huge gap b/n demand and suplly in Ethiopian construction
project such in Housing sector.
Objectives: Expected achievements that are well - defined, specific, measurable, and derived
from the goal(s).
Projec Planning
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Project planning is a discipline for stating how to complete a project within a certain
timeframe, usually with defined stages, and with designated resources.
According to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK), A project plan is: "...a
formal, approved document used to guide both project execution and project control. The
primary uses of the project plan are to document planning assumptions and decisions,
facilitate communication among project stakeholders, and document approved scope, cost,
and schedule baselines.
Management at any level involves 5 processes: Planning, Organizing, Staffing , Leading and
Controlling. Out of the 5 tasks planning is the first task and the bases for the rest tasks
Planning: is an organized process of thinking in advance about a future action.
Planning: is the process of deciding in advance about the short and long term objectives of an
Organization and selecting courses of actions to accomplish those goals.
Planning involves Setting Goals and Prepare means for achieving them
A good plan answers
What to be done? The Goal or the objective
How to be done? Determining tasks, methods,
When to be done? Durations, starting time and ending time
Who should do it? Assignment of Responsibility
What resource is needed and when it is needed?
Scheduling: is the process of setting the activities identified in some logical order of their
occurrence and determining the duration they require to be done.
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Strategy: is a master game plan designed for achieving the objectives of an organization. It is a
mix of competitive moves and actions made by the top level management for the
accomplishment of goals successfully.
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The generic life cycle structure generally displays the following characteristics: Cost and
staffing levels are low at the start, peak as the work is carried out, and drop rapidly as the
project draws to a close. Figure 2-8 illustrates this typical pattern. The typical cost and staffing
curve above may not apply to all projects. A project may require significant expenditures to
secure needed resources early in its life cycle, for instance, or be fully staffed from a point very
early in its life cycle. Risk and uncertainty (as illustrated in Figure 2-9) are greatest at the start
of the project. These factors decrease over the life of the project as decisions are reached and as
deliverables are accepted. The ability to influence the final characteristics of the project’s
product, without significantly impacting cost, is highest at the start of the project and decreases
as the project progresses towards completion. Figure … illustrates the idea that the cost of
making changes and correcting errors typically increases. substantially as the project
approaches completion. While these characteristics remain present to some extent in almost all
project life cycles, they are not always present to the same degree. Adaptive life cycles, in
particular, are developed with the intent of keeping stakeholder influences higher and the costs
of changes lower throughout the life cycle than in predictive life cycles.
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The characteristics of planning
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2. Planning involves interdependent decisions and concerns of all level of management
3. Plans are arranged in hierarchy
Company plan
Department plan
Section plan
Operation plan
Importance of Planning
Types of plans
Classification based on
Head office
branch office
project level
task level
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Long term plan:
Intermediate plan
Short term plan
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Inputs
Processes
Feasibility study Design product, Solicit tender and award Start-up and test the
develop detailed contracts, administer product. produce as
program: WBS, CPM, contracts, make the built drawings, compile
budget product/solve problem knowledge learnt
Outputs
Feasibility study, Baseline plan, design Completed project output Project closeout report
Project proposal, drawings and
Execution strategy specifications
A project charter is a tightly worded document signifying the initiation of a project and
what is to be done and the boundaries of the project.
project charter should generally include:
Background of the project
Key assumptions
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Business needs and other commercial needs
Scope of work
Identify key activities, budgets and milestones(new development)
Comment on how the project is to be managed
Market analysis
Technical analysis
Financial analysis
Economic analysis
Ecological analysis
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• Risk management planning,
• Procurement planning, and
• Project development integrated plan.
C. Project Planning at the Implementation Phase
Project planning at the implementation phase of the construction projects include:
i. Approval to implement project
ii. Solicit tender and award contracts, administer contracts, make the product/solve problem
iii. Completed project output for closeout
3. Completed project output
After completion by the contractor, it is the project team of the client that hands over the
project to him.
The team also prepares a project completion report which includes:
the scope and schedule of work,
the important events,
the contract executed,
the addresses of the suppliers of materials and equipment,
the equipment maintenance manual, the as-built drawings, the costs involved,
the problems encountered during execution,
the lessons learned and
the minor defects noticed at the time of handing over.
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the PMBOK® Guide is contained in a separate section. The PMBOKR Guide defines the
important aspects of each Knowledge Area and how it integrates with the five Process Groups.
As supporting elements, the Knowledge Areas provide a detailed description of the process
inputs and outputs along with a descriptive explanation of tools and techniques most frequently
used within the project management processes to produce each outcome. A data flow diagram is
provided in each Knowledge Area (Sections 4 through 8). The data flow diagram is a summary
level depiction of the process inputs and process outputs that flow down through all the
processes within a specific Knowledge Area (see Figure 3-6 for data flow diagram legend).
Although the processes are presented here as discrete elements with well-defined interfaces, in
practice they are iterative and can overlap and interact in ways not detailed here.
Knowledge Areas Project Management Process Groups
Initiating Planning Executing Monitoring Closing
Process Process Process and Controlling Process
Group Group Group Process Group Group
Project Develop Develop Project Direct and Monitor and Close Project
Integration Project Charter Management Plan Manage Project Control Project or Phase
Management Work Work
4.5 Perform
Integrated
Change
Control
Project Scope 5.1 Plan Scope 5.5 Validate
Management Management Scope
5.2 Collect 5.6 Control
Requirements Scope
5.3 Define Scope
5.4 Create WBS
Project Time 6.1 Plan Schedule 6.7 Control
Management Management Schedule
6.2 Define
Activities
6.3 Sequence
Activities
6.4 Estimate
Activity Resources
6.5 Estimate
Activity Durations
6.6 Develop
Schedule
Project Cost 7.1 Plan Cost 7.4 Control Costs
Management Management
7.2 Estimate Costs
7.3 Determine
Budget
Project 8.1 Plan Quality 8.2 Perform 8.3 Control
Quality Management Quality Quality
Management Assurance
Project 9.1 Plan Human 9.2 Acquire
Human Resource Resource Project
Management Management Team
9.3 Develop
Project
Team
9.4 Manage
Project
Team
Project 10.1 Plan 10.2 Manage 10.3 Control
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Communications Communications Communications Communications
Management Management
Project Risk 11.1 Plan Risk 11.6 Control
Management Management Risks
11.2 Identify Risks
11.3 Perform
Qualitative Risk
Analysis
11.4 Perform
Quantitative Risk
Analysis
11.5 Plan Risk
Responses
Project 12.1 Plan 12.2 Conduct 12.3 Control 12.4 Close
Procurement Procurement Procurements Procurements Procurements
Management Management
Project 13.1 Identify 13.2 Plan 13.3 Manage 13.4 Control
Stakeholder Stakeholders Stakeholder Stakeholder Stakeholder
Management Management Engagement Engagement
By Temesgen G. Page 17
Descriptions of the tools and techniques to be used for accomplishing those
processes, and
Description of how the selected processes will be used to manage the specific project,
including the dependencies and interactions among those processes and the essential
inputs and outputs.
Description of how work will be executed to accomplish the project objectives;
Change management plan that documents how changes will be monitored and controlled;
Configuration management plan that documents how configuration management will be
performed;
Description of how the integrity of the project baselines will be maintained;
Requirements and techniques for communication among stakeholders; and
Key management reviews for content, the extent of, and timing to address, open issues
and pending decisions.
Time is Neutral
2. Setting Goals
3. Setting Priorities
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4. Identifying Your Biological Prime Time
6. Practice Delegation
Effective Time Management boosts an individual’s morale and makes him confident.
Individuals who stick to a time plan are the ones who realize their goals and objectives
within the shortest possible time span
Effective Time Management helps an employee to reach the pinnacle of success quickly
and stay firm at the top for a longer duration.
Better Time Management helps in better planning and eventually better forecasting
Research says that individuals who accomplish tasks on time are less prone to stress and
anxiety
Generally
Increase Productivity
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Time Management
Time Management: refers to managing time effectively so that the right time is
allocated to the right activity.
Effective time management allows individuals to assign specific time slots to
activities as per their importance.
Time Management refers to making the best use of time as time is always limited.
Proceses of Proiect time management
In order to easily understand the processes, let us classify the processes in to two
Pre-planning Activities
Planning activities
Pre-planning Activities
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3 Existence of structure to be demolished, the Affects the site clearance process,
Condition of the structure duration and Equipment required
4 Access to the site Affects the transportation process in
to & out the site
5 Availability of skilled and unskilled labour, Affect the human resource
local rate of pay, the impact of labour union, requirement, cost, … .
6 Weather Condition Affect the working days available
for planning
7 Availability of local Suppliers and sub -
contractors, Equipment renting service and
cost of renting
8 Services: Electricity, water, and municipal
sewer lines
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available key Equipment's,
cash, etc
5. Pre-planning discussion with sub contractors and suppliers
Planning process
Before beginning the actual planning process the objective should be set
By Temesgen G. Page 23
There are different break down structures like WBS, OBS, CBS … used as input for
scheduling a project.
Work break down (WBS) : is the process of systematic splitting of tasks in to lower level
activities which are easy to handle and manage.
Purpose:
To identify activities for the planning purpose
To systematically determine the actual duration and resource requirements
Work break down structure:
It can start parallel to the preparation of work methodology
It is very tedious activity but if data managed systematically it is easy
It may have a hierarchy of
Project
Sub-project
Task
Sub-task
Activity
Sub-activity: but this depends on the type & size of project
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This top to down method helps
1. To avoid missing out activities
2. Keeps data organized
3. Gives an over view of the possible job logic
Activity in WBS
1. Must be handy
2. Valuable for the planning and scheduling purpose
3. Consume time or resource or both and easily determined
4. Preferably done with one separate crew whose productivity and gang size & resource
requirement is easily known
In making WBS one should note that
Activities that don’t consume resource but consume time should be considered as an
activity or as a LAG
Eg: Concrete Curing;
Administrative activities or Events of significant also must be considered
Eg: regulatory approvals
Order for materials or special products
Delivery time of materials, Equipment's
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3. Estimating Activity Duration
Defn: it is the process of judging (using different technique) the most likely time required to
perform an activity
Purpose:
For estimating the over all project duration
To identify the activity start and finish time To time
For resource estimation and allocation For allocation
To be aware and determine critical activities and eventsevents activity.
Methods: there are different techniques and methods but all can be included in major classes as:
1) Based on Expertise/ Experience judgment
2) Based on the technical and administrative nature of the activity
3) Based on productivity (from the firms or from the standard norms)
A. Daily productivity rate method
B. Labor hourly productivity rate method
C. Labor cost rate method
A. Daily productivity rate method
The productivity is given as the amount of the work or activity could be done
within one day by a single (one) standard crew.
E.g. form work…………………………20m2/ day20m2/ day
If one knows the quantity of the activity and the productivity rate. The duration can
be estimated as:
Qi
Di=
Pi∗¿
where Qi = quantity of the activity
Pi = productivity rate
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Ni = numbers of crew
Example 1: determine the duration of formwork construction for a column if the area of the form
work required is 248m2 and the productivity of a standard crew is 12m2/day.
quantity of the activityquantity activity
Solution :duratio n=
productivity∗number of cre crew
Using one crew: Dr = 248/(12*1) = 20.67 = 27 days
Using two crew: Df= 248/(12*2)= 11 days= days
Using three crew: Df= 248/(12*3) = 7 days= days
Etc. we can continue until the point where the resource is optimum
B. hourly production rate method
productivity is given as the number of hours or days required for a standard crew to
perform one unit of an activity.
E.g. form work……………………………….0.1hr/ m.m2
Example: a foundation construction involves 156 m3 of C25 concrete and Labor- hourly rate
was found to be 0.85 hrs/ m3. determine the estimated duration for the activity?
Solution:
Total labor hr= quantity of work*labor labor-hrly rate
= 156m3* 0.85hr/m3 =132.6hrs
Assuming 8hrs/ day and 1 crew
Total labor hrs
Duration=
hrs ∈a day∗number of crew
= 132.6hrs/(8hrs/day* 1)
= 17 days
Using two crew:
D = 132.6/(8*2)
= 9 days etc.
C. Labor Cost rate method
There cases where the productivity rate of activities unknown but the unit
production rates or labor unknown labor cost is known. In addition the cost of an
activity might targeted to not exceed some given amount due to many reasons. –
In the above case one can use the labor cost rate method to determine the maximum
duration an activity could have with out affecting the targeted cost.
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In this method, the major target is to fix the minimum productivity of labor so that
one can follow it so that the activity is completed on budgeted cost and estimated
time.
Example: A building is to be constructed in the rural part of Somali, where there is no
compiled productivity data. The construction involves 10m3 of pit Excavation. According to
the rated bill of quantity of the contract the excavation is expected to be completed with in a
cost of 2000 Birr. The excavation is planed to be executed by labor and the local labor rate is
found to be 40 birr/ day. Estimate the maximum duration and the minimum production rate of
labor to complete the excavation with in the expected cost.
Solution:
Cost rate = Total Cost/ Quantity of work = 2000 birr/10m3
= 200 birr/ m3
Production rate = Cost rate/ Labor cost rate = 200 birr/40birr/m3
= 5 days/ m3
Duration = Production rate* quantity of activity / number of crew
Using one labor: D = (5*10)/1= 50 days
using two labor: D= (5*10)/ 2= 25 days
Using three labor: D= (5*10)/3= 17 days
4. Resource Estimation & planning
Resource management has two basic aspects
Ensuring the availability of resources in right amount at the right time
Ensuring the resource usage is Efficient
In Construction The main resources are
Man power
Material
Equipment
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The common planning tools are: Bar Chart, Network Method, Linear scheduling
method, Resource diagram, “ S ” Curve, Etc
Effectiveness of planning tools depends on
Type of project( Road, Bldg, Multi story bldg. … )
The person who use the plan( CM, GM, Forman … )
The purpose (communication, controlling …..)
The common time planning Tools/techniques are:
Linear scheduling method
Line of balance
Bar/ Gantt chart
Network method
CPM,
PNA,
PERT etc.
Characteristics of Lob
Shows repetitive nature of the construction
Progress of work can be seen easily
Sequence of different work activities can be easily understood
Can be developed and prepared in a shorter time period than other formats
Example
Consider the construction of several houses (say 5).Each typical house involves four inter‐related
activities
A‐ Foundations,
B‐ Brickwork,
C‐ Roof construction
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D‐ Internal works
By Temesgen G. Page 31
appropriate for presentation of schedules. However, as planning technique, the bar chart is not
suitable for complex projects due to the following reasons:
In bar chart
The length of bar= the duration
The position of bar ≈ the start/end
The assumptions are:
The rate of progress is constant throughout the length of the bar
The resource usage is constant
The start/End time are the actual start/end time
Bar chart is popular b/c It is simple to
Prepare
Read and interpret
Easily communicate information with Forman
Are versatile
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They can be prepared any where with just a pencil and paper.
Unlike networks, bar charts are time-scaled; that is, the length of a bar representing a
certain activity is proportional to the duration of that activity.
Just by looking at the chart, you can get an idea of the duration of each activity and the
entire project.
appeal to persons who do not have a technical background
Limitations of bar chart
Applicable to
simple project or
Outlining complex projects
Bar charts may not be practical for projects with a large number of activities (complex
projects)
lack of logical representation (relationships) b/n activities
Critical activities and critical path can’t be shown
The importance of activities is hidden
Application of soft wares in solving the limitations of Bar chart
Different soft wares are integrate bar chart with network method
Hence, the critical activities are determined by network method
The result can be depicted on the bar charts
Bar chart still serves as major tool.
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Arrow networks are also called the arrow diagramming method (ADM), activity on
arrow (AOA) network, or the I-J method (because activities are defined by the from
node, I, and the to node, J).
Example of Activity on Arow (AOA) representation
NODE NETWORKS
Node networks are also called activity on node (AON) networks. In node networks,
we use a different notation for representation: a node represents an activity. Nodes
(activities) are connected with arrows (or lines) that represent logical relationships.
Example of Activity on Node(AoN)Repesentation
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Network scheduling technique may includes: critical path method (CPM), Presdes Network
Analysis method (PNA) and Performance Evaluation method (PERT)
Critical Path Method (CPM) is best suited for activities with deterministic single-time
duration
Terminologies
Path : is a series of activities connecting the starting point to the finishing point.
Critical Path: The series of activities all of which must finish on time for the whole project to
finish on time. Sometimes described as the longest path through a network, hence the shortest
project time. A critical path has zero float
Event: is a state b/n the end of 1 & start of 2 Activity. Has no duration, No resource consumption
and represent by node
Milestones/ Key events: events of significance e.g Work is commenced, Concrete work
completed, Electrification/ sanitary work completed, Project hand over etc.
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Float or Slack Time: The additional time available to complete a non-critical activity. Or it is
the difference between the time available to do a job and the time required to do a job.
Earliest start (ES) : is earliest time at which an activity can be started
Earliest finish (EF) : is earliest time by which an activity can be finished
LS = LF – D
Latest finish (LF) : is latest time by which an activity can be finished without delaying the
completion of project.
LF= LS + D
Leads and Lags: An imposed modification of the logical relationship between activities to
accelerate or delay the apparent natural order.
TYPES OF FLOATS
Total float: is the total amount of time that a construction activity “I” starting date (or finishing
date ) can be delayed without affecting the overall completion time of the construction project;
or with out delaying the project finish date.
TF = LS – ES or
i i
TF = Lf - EF
i i
Free float (FF): Is the amount of time that an activity “A” can be delayed without delaying the
early start date of any immediately following activities “successors”.
FF = min(LS ) – EF
i i+1 i
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TF VS. FF
TF – Project finish date.
FF – early start date of any successor activity
Assumptio:
TF : All predecessors to activity “a” begin as early as possible (ES) and all its
A
successors begin as late as possible (LS).
FF All predecessors and successors of activity “A” begin as early as possible (ES) and
A:
the activity itself “A” ends as possible (EF).
Interfering Float: is the period by which an activity can be delayed, brought forward or
extended without affecting the schedule end date but will affect successor activities.
Independent Float: The maximum amount of time an activity can be delayed without delaying
the early start of the succeeding activities and with out being affected by the allowable delay of
the preceding activities.It is the time an activity can be delayed without affecting any other
activity either previous or subsequent.
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Example 1
Draw the network diagram for the following activities by using AOA and determine ES, EF, LS ,
LF time,TF, critical activities and critical path.
A - C 3
B - D,E 4
C A E 6
D B - 5
E B,C - 4
Answer
A 3
B 4
C 6
D 5
E 4
PRECEDENCE NETWORK
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But the three time estimate needs to be converted into single time before using in the network, by
computing the expected time. many variants of the boxes or nodes in a precedence network is
possible based on information the user desires. For illustration, a typical box used in most cases
has the following informations:
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If the activities have SS, FF, and SF relationship in the network, then determining
critical path becomes difficult especially if manual computations are performed.
Further, in precedence network, the activities on critical path may not be connected
clearly in a sequence!
Also, the total slack definition adopted (LS-ES or LF-EF) for networks such as
PERT/CPM may or may not give same values!
EXAMPLE:
FORWARD PASS
=0+8=8
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5 12 20 EST5 = EST2 + SS2-5 32 EFT5 = EST5 +
(Max dur5
of 12, = 8 + 4 = 12
20,17) EST = EST + SS = 20 + 12 = 32
5 3 3-5
=13 + 7=20
EST5= EFT3 + FF3-5-dur5 =24
+ 5-12=17
=32 + 8-6=34
=34 +5 = 39
BACKWARD PASS
Node Duration ESTi Remarks EFT Remarks
duri
9 8 50 42
=42 -3 +5 = 44
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7 6 40 LFT7=LST8-SS7-8 + dur7 34 40-6= 34
=39 -5 +6 = 40
=39-0 =39
=40-8 =32
=34-3 =31
4 10 20 LFT4=LFT3-FF3-4 10 20-10= 10
Min = 24 – 4 = 20
(20,31
) LFT4=LST6-FS4-6
=35-4 =31
=20-4+7 = 23
1 8 8 LFT1=LST2-FS1-2 0 8-8 = 0
Min =16-0 =16
(16,12
,8) LFT1=LST3-FS1-3
=13-1 =12
LFT1=LST4-FS1-4
=10-2 =8
1 0 8 0 8 0
2 8 15 16 23 8
3 13 24 13 24 0
4 10 20 10 20 0
5 20 32 20 32 0
6 24 28 35 39 11
7 34 40 34 40 0
8 39 44 39 44 0
9 42 50 42 50 0
From the tree time the average or expected time is etermined by:
By Temesgen G. Page 43
t = (t +4t +t )/6
e o m p
The fact that t > t in this case, is a reflection of the extreme position of t and the
e m p
asymmetry in the Beta distribution, even though computationally the weights given to t
o
and t is the same. There has been a lot of criticism on the approach of obtaining three
p
‘‘valid’’ time estimates to put into the PERT formulas. It is often difficult to arrive at one
activity-time estimate; three subjective definitions of such estimates do not help the
matter (how optimistic and pessimistic should one be). Nevertheless, the three time
estimate also provides the advantages of ascertaining the variability or uncertainty
associated with a particular set of estimate. For example, suppose we have two sets of
estimate provided by the different estimator for the same ‘design foundation’ activity. In
order of (t , t ,t ), let the first set of estimate (14, 18, 28) and the other set of estimates
e m p
be (17, 18, 25). There is large variability in the estimates of first estimator compared to
the second one, even though the expected or average activity duration turns out to be 19
in both the cases (verify!!!). In order to measure the uncertainty associated with the
estimate of duration of an activity, the standard deviation (St) and the variance Vt are
determined, which in PERT are defined as:
S = (t -t )/6 and
t p o
2
V = (S )
t t
The formula for S indicates that it is one sixth of the difference between the two extreme
t
time estimates. Further, the greater the uncertainty in time estimates, the greater the value
of (t -t ), and the more spread out will be the distribution curve. A high S represents a
p o t
high degree of uncertainty regarding activity times. In other words there is a greater
chance that the actual time required to complete the activity will differ significantly from
the expected time t . For the two sets of estimate used in ‘design activity’, the St and Vt
e
By Temesgen G. Page 44
would be 2.33 days and 5.44 respectively for first set of estimates while 1.33 days and
1.77 are the corresponding values of St and Vt for the second set of estimates. The
expected length or duration of project Te is calculated by summing up the expected
duration te’s of activities on the critical path. The critical path is determined following
the forward pass and backward pass explained earlier. The variance associated with the
critical path is the sum of variances associated with the activities on the critical path. In
case, there is more than one critical path in a project network, then the path with the
T = ∑t
e e
V = ∑V and
T t
S = ∑St
T
VT and ST represent variability in the expected project duration. The higher the V T and ST
values, the more likely it is that the time required to complete the project will differ from the
expected project length Te. As was pointed earlier, t o, tm, and tp are assumed to be a random
variable following Beta distribution in the PERT technique. Now that, t is the weighted sum
e
a random variable. The distribution of T follows normal distribution according to the Central
e
Limit Theorem of statistics. Suppose, it is required to compute the probability of completing
the project within a target duration of TD days. Now given the Te of the project it is possible
to calculate the deviation of TD from Te in units of standard deviation. This is calculated from
the normal distribution table. To adopt the table, a ratio called the standardised deviation or
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more often the normal deviate, Z, is derived. Z is defined as the ratio of the difference in TD
and Te to S . Mathematically,
T
Z= (TD- Te)/ S ,
T
Here Z is the number of standard deviations by which TD exceeds Te. Note that TD might be
less than Te, in which case Z is negative. Now the probability measure the originally sought
may be obtained by referring to the following table, extracted from a standard normal table:
Example: determine Expected duration, standard deviations and variances, ES,EF,LS,LF time
for activities in the following network diagrams?
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40-50 2 5 14 6 2 4
40-60 4 5 12 6 4/3 16/9
50-60 1 4 7 2 1 1
Now, the problem of computing the probability of meeting target duration (TD), such as 42 days
shown in the figure is quite simple. Since the total area under the normal curve is exactly one, the
cross hatched area under the normal curve is directly the probability that the actual completion
time, will be equal to, or less than, 42 days. In this case Z= (TD- TE)/ ST, = (42-36)/ 5.48 = 1.09
standard deviations. In other words, the target duration TD is 1.09 standard deviations greater
than the expected time TE=36 days. The equivalent probability P(Z=1.09) can be read off a
normal probability distribution. This corresponds to a probability of 0.862 (86.2%)which implies
that there is a 86.2% chance that the project will get completed within 42 days.
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Assuming that time now is zero, one may expect this project to end at time 36 days
(corresponding probability of achieving this target being 50%, verify!!! Hint: TD=36, T =36 );
E
and the probability that it will end on or before the target duration of 42, without expediting the
project is approximately 86.2%. On the other hand, if one were to schedule towards TD= 33
days; herein TD<T ; i.e. Z=-0.55 (Note the negative sign); the corresponding probability would
E
be 0.291, which is really a very bleak situation. In the above, the phrase ‘without expediting’ is
very important. In certain projects schedules always may be met by some means or another,
for example: by changing the schedule. In the above, the phrase ‘without expediting’ is very
important. In certain projects schedules always may be met by some means or another,
for example:
by changing the schedule,
by changing the project requirement,
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by adding further Resources or facilities, etc.
However, here it is implied that the probability being computed hereinabove is the one that the
original schedule will be met without having to expedite the work in some way or another. The
feature in PERT on the computation of probability of completing the project in a particular
duration is quite useful especially for negotiating the duration with an owner by the executing
agency. For example, while agreeing on a particular duration, the executing agency would like to
judge his chances on completing the project in that duration. For being reasonably sure of a
particular duration, he would like to attain a probability of more than 95%. Thus for the same
example, suppose the executing agency is asked to provide the projected duration for the project,
the agency would find out the duration corresponding to Z(P=0.95)= 1.65, thus the target
duration for this case could be TD= TE + 1.65 x ST= 36 + 1.65 x 5.48= approximately 45 days.
In other words, the executing agency would be quite confident of completing the project in 45
days.
CHAPTER - 3
RESOURCE PLANNING
The term resource is used in many fields and contexts. Most companies have human
resources departments, which match the need for employees with the appropriate supply
by hiring and laying off workers. The term financial resources is commonly used to
indicate available monetary sources. In project management, we use the term resources
to indicate three main categories: labor (human), equipment, and materials. Ultimately,
everything is translated into a monetary quantity that may be—for the accounting
department—a part of the financial resources.
Labour Schedule:
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It will indicate the nature and quantity of labour required for the execution of different
operations on different dates during certain weeks. The Project Manager/Engineer should
arrange the labour in such away so that there are minimum labour fluctuations.
Item Activities Weeks
No 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1 Excavation 15 10
2 Foundation 10 10 6 Bar chart
3 Walls 15 15 15 10
4 Roof Slabs 8
5 Plastering 8
Total 15 20 25 21 15 18 8
Equipment Schedule:
Equipment schedule shows the types and quantities of equipment required on particular dates in
the entire project based on the planned productivity.
Item Type of Months of the year on which equipment required
No Equipment (2005)
Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb.
1 Bulldozer 1 1 1
2 Grader 1 1 1 1
3 Dump 3 3 4 3 3 3
trucks
Financial Schedule
Financial schedule shows the flow of money into a project. A construction schedule may be used
to estimate the amount of funds that a contractor must provide in financing a project during
construction.
Weeks after Activities under construction Expenditure per Cumulative
starting week expenditures
1 Excavation $6000 $6000
2 Lean concrete, Rebar, $10,000 $16,000
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formwork & concrete
Resource loading table showing daily requirement of workers based on EARLY START order
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Resource Scheduling can be: Time limited scheduling and Resource limited scheduling
Projects that must meet a certain deadline and have unlimited resources use Time Limited
scheduling. Projects that have limited availability of the required resources, however the project
deadline is more flexible would use Resource limited scheduling.
Examples of resource optimization techniques that can be used to adjust the schedule model due
to demand and supply of resources include, but are not limited to:
Time constrained resource leveling /Smoothin. A technique that adjusts the activities of a
schedule model such that the
requirements for resources on the project do not exceed certain predefined resource limits. In
resource smoothing, as opposed to resource leveling, the project’s critical path is not changed
and the completion date may not be delayed. In other words, activities may only be delayed
within their free and total float. Thus resource smoothing may not be able to optimize all
resources.
Resource leveling in case of limited Resource. A technique in which start and finish dates are
adjusted based on resource constraints with the goal of balancing demand for resources with the
available supply. Resource leveling can be used when shared or critically required resources are
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only available at certain times, or in limited quantities, or over-allocated, such as when a
resource has been assigned to two or more activities during the same time period, as shown in
Figure 6-20, or to keep resource usage at a constant level. Resource leveling can often cause the
original critical path to change, usually to increase.
CHAPTER - 4
PROJECT MONITORING AND CONTROLLING
The only reason for doing a project plan (including the schedule) is to achieve control of the
project. Control is exercised by comparing where you are to where you are supposed to be and
Taking corrective action when there is a deviation from target.
If you are going to have control of a project, you need to know two things:
where we are supposed to be and
where we are.
Project control is a continuous process that involves the following functions:
1. Monitoring work progress
2. Comparing it with the baseline schedule and budget (what they were supposed to be)
3. Finding any variances, determining where they are and the extent of the variances, and
analyzing them to discover the causes
4. Taking corrective action whenever and wherever necessary in order to bring the project
back on schedule and within budget
Progress measuring and controlling by using Earned Value Analysis
Earned Value Analysis: is the modern method of performance analysis which provides an
analytical framework for project control by estimating factors like cost variance, time variance,
schedule variance, cost performance index, schedule performance index, estimated cost
performance index etc.
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Budgeted Cost for Work Scheduled (BCWS) or (PV): It is the value of the work
that should have been completed at the scheduled date as planned.
Budget Cost for Work Performed (BCWP) or (EV): It is the budgeted cost for
completed work.
Actual Cost for Work Performed (ACWP) or (AV): It is the cost actually incurred
in completing the wok accomplished with in a particular time period
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Positive (SV) show ahead of schedule
CPI mean I am progressing at __% out of every $1.
SPI mean I am progressing at __% of the original plan.
An other effective way to examine cost and schedule variance is to use cumulative cost curves
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The Gantt chart and s curve above shows :
part (a) of the figure shows that the project is fundamentally on schedule, and the cumulative
cost curve shows that money is being spent in conformance with the budget. This reflects a
situation where progress appears to be going according to the plan. Part (b) of the figure shows
that tasks are being accomplished earlier than planned. At the same time, more money is being
spent than budgeted in the time period under review. This reflects a situation of “crashing. Part
(c) of the figure shows the worst possible situation. The project is experiencing both schedule
slippage and a cost overrun.
Schedule Compression
Schedule compression techniques are used to shorten the schedule duration without reducing the
project scope, in order to meet schedule constraints, imposed dates, or other schedule objectives.
Schedule compression techniques include, but are not limited to: Fast tracking and Crashing.
Fast tracking. A schedule compression technique in which activities or phases normally done in
sequence are performed in parallel for at least a portion of their duration. An example is
constructing the foundation for a building before completing all of the architectural drawings.
Fast tracking may result in rework and increased risk. Fast tracking only works if activities can
be overlapped to shorten the project duration.
Crashing. A technique used to shorten the schedule duration for the least incremental cost by
adding resources. Examples of crashing include approving overtime, bringing in additional
resources, or paying to expedite delivery to activities on the critical path. Crashing works only
for activities on the critical path where additional resources will shorten the activity’s duration.
Crashing does not always produce a viable alternative and may result in increased risk and/or
cost.
NETWORK CRASHING AND COST TIME TRADE OFF
CPM is based on the assumption that duration of an activity can be reduced or crashed to a
certain extent by increasing the resources assigned to it. As is known the execution of an activity
involves both the direct costs and indirect costs. However, there is no point in attempting to crash
all the activities by increasing the resources.
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Any reduction in duration of critical path activities can reduce the project duration.
An activity can be performed;
at its normal or most efficient pace or ‘normal duration’
it can be performed at higher speed or ‘crash duration’
Some activities along the critical path sometime need to be shortened in order to reduce the
overall duration of the project. This leads to a decrease in the indirect expenses (due to decrease
in duration) and an increase in the direct expenses (due to more mobilization of resources). The
relationship between the cost of the job and the duration has been assumed to be linear. The
steeper the slope of the line, the higher the cost of expediting the job at an earlier date.
This expedition of activity at an earlier time is referred to as Crashing. There are 3 cases that
normally arise –
Line sloping down to the right – The steeper the slope, the higher the cost of crashing.
Horizontal line – No cost of crashing.
Vertical line – The activity can’t be shortened regardless of the extra resources applied
to it.
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EXAMPLE: crash the network below and determmine the optimum scheduled time and
coptimum project cost
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Computation of slope for direct Expense!
Activity Normal Crash Cost
slope
Duration Cost Duration Cost Br./ day
1-2 (A) 3 5000 2 7000 2000
2-3 (B) 4 6000 2 10000 2000
2-4 (C) 3 9000 1 17000 4000
2-5 (D) 4 5000 3 9000 4000
4-5 (E) 5 7000 2 16000 3000
3-5 (F) 2 8000 1 9500 1500
5-6 (G) 5 20000 5 20000 -
The indirect expenses are Br. 6000 / day.
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