‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻭﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﹼﺩ ‪ ،37‬ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ ‪2010 ،2‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺜﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‪:‬‬

‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻗﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺭﺓ )‪(2005-1975‬‬

‫ﻫﺎﻨﻡ ﺭﺠﺏ ﺁل ﺩﺭﻭﻴﺵ ﻭﺃﺤﻤﺩ ﺇﺒﺭﺍﻫﻴﻡ ﻤﻼﻭﻱ*‬

‫ﻤﻠﺨـﺹ‬
‫ﺘﻬﺩﻑ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺃﺴﺎﺴﻲ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺜﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ )‪-1975‬‬
‫‪ .(2005‬ﻭﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻬﺩﻑ ﻓﻘﺩ ﺘﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ )‪ (VAR‬ﺒﺎﻟﺸﻜل ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﺯل ﺒﺨﻤﺴﺔ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ )ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‪ ،‬ﻋﺩﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺡ‪ ،‬ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‪ ،‬ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻟﻠﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ‪ ،‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ(‪ .‬ﻭﺘﻡ ﻜﺫﻟﻙ ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ‬
‫ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺩﻴﻜﻲ‪ -‬ﻓﻭﻟﺭ ﻟﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ ﻤﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ ﻤﻊ ﻤﺭﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺒﻴﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ ﺒﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺘﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﺘﻡ ﻜﺫﻟﻙ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ :‬ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺠﺭﻴﻨﺠﺭ ﻟﻠﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﺒﻴﻥ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﻭﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﻫﻲ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺘﺒﺎﺩﻟﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﺇﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻤل ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺘﺭﻙ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﺘﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼﻟﻪ‬
‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺜﻼﺜﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺃﺭﺒﻌﺔ ﻤﺘﺠﻬﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗل ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‪ .‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺘﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺃﺩﺍﺘﻴﻥ ﺭﺌﻴﺴﺘﻴﻥ ﻟﻠﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻫﻤﺎ‪ :‬ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻟﺭﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻔﻌل‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺒﻴﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺘﺘﻔﻕ ﻤﻊ ﻓﺭﻀﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻟﻠﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ﻭﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻟﻬﻤﺎ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺴﻠﺒﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‪ ،‬ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﻜﺎﻥ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺡ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﺍﻴﺠﺎﺒﻴﹰﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻤـﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺍﻟـﺔ‪ :‬ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‪ ،‬ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺠﻪ‪.‬‬

‫ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫‪ -1‬ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﻤـﺔ‬

‫ﺘﺴﻌﻰ ﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻡ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺭﻓﻊ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﺍﻫﺎ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪،‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﺒﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﺍﻴﺠﺎﺒﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ‪ .‬ﻓﻠﻜل‬
‫ﻅﻬﺭﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ ﻤﻨﺫ ﻋﺼﻭﺭ ﻗﺩﻴﻤﺔ ﻜﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ ﺍﺠﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺒﻠﺩ ﻗﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﺘﺸﻜﹼل ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﺔ ﻟﻠﺩﺨل‬
‫ﻭﺇﻨﺴﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﻋﺭﻓﻬﺎ ﺍﻹﻨﺴﺎﻥ ﻤﻨﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺩﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻁﻭﺭﺕ ﺒﺘﻁﻭﺭ ﺤﺎﺠﺎﺘﻪ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫ ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺘﻲ ﻤﻥ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ ﺃﺤﺩ ﻫﺫﻩ‬
‫ﻭﺭﻏﺒﺎﺘﻪ ﺤﺘﻰ ﺘﺤﻭﻟﺕ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺤﺭﻜﺔ ﺜﻘﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﺠﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﻬﺎﻤﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﺎﻷﺭﺩﻥ ‪ -‬ﻷﺴﺒﺎﺏ ﺘﺎﺭﻴﺨﻴﺔ ﻭﻁﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ‪ -‬ﻴﻤﺘﻠﻙ‬
‫ﻭﺃﺼﺒﺤﺕ ﺫﺍﺕ ﻤﻔﻬﻭﻡ ﻭﺍﻀﺢ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻠﻤﻭﺱ ﻓﻲ ﺸﺘﻰ‬
‫ﻤﻘﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﻜﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻻ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺇﻏﻔﺎﻟﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺠﺎل ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‪ .‬ﺇﻥ‬
‫ﻤﺠﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺤﻴﺎﺓ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﺴﺘﻐﻼل ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﺒﺎﻟﺸﻜل ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺢ ﺴﻴﺯﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺘﻲ‬
‫ﻭﻟﻠﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ‪ ،‬ﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﻫﻭ ﺃﺤﺩ ﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺠﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺜﻘﺎﻓﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫ ﻟﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺒﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻀﻭﺏ ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺘﻲ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺘﻌﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ ﻤﺠﺭﺩ ﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎل ﺍﻷﻓﺭﺍﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺒﻠﺩ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺁﺨﺭ‪ ،‬ﺒل ﻫﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻁ ﺃﻭ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺘﻲ ﻤﻥ ﻗﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺘﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻅﺭﻭﻑ‬
‫ﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ ﺇﻨﺴﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺤﺎﺠﺔ ﺍﺠﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺃﺴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻀﻭﺀ ﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺫﺒﺫﺒﺔ ﻜﺎﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺘﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﻟﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻅﺭﻭﻑ ﺍﻟﺤﻴﺎﺓ‪ ،‬ﺇﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻨﻬﺎ ﻗﺩ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻤﻭﺭﺩﹰﺍ ﻫﺎﻤﹰﺎ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﻠﺔ‬
‫ﺘﻜﻤﻥ ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻨﻬﺎ ﺘﻨﺎﻗﺵ ﺃﻫﻡ ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻌﺒﺔ ﻟﺘﺤﺴﻴﻥ ﻭﻀﻊ ﻤﻴﺯﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺩﻓﻭﻋﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل‬
‫ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‪ ،‬ﺫﻟﻙ ﺃﻥ ﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻭﺴﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻋﺩﺓ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻤﺩﻯ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﻭﺍﻷﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻟﻬﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻗﺩ ﺘﺴﺎﻋﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺒﺫﻟﻙ ﻓﺎﻥ ﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻭﺍﺯﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺘﻬﺎ ﺃﻱ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻌﻅﻴﻡ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻱ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ ﺁﺨﺭ )ﺍﻟﺒﻁﺎﻁ ﻭﺍﻟﺯﻭﻴﻥ‪.(2006 ،‬‬
‫ﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺃﻥ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻬﺎﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻭﻓﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻌﺒﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺒﻠﺩ ﻴﻌﺎﻨﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺯﻤﺔ‬ ‫* ﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﻘﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﺘﻁﺒﻴﻘﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﻤﻌﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺒﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ؛ ﻗﺴﻡ‬
‫ﻤﺩﻴﻭﻨﻴﺔ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻜﺎﻷﺭﺩﻥ‪ .‬ﻫﺫﺍ ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ –‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‪ ،‬ﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ ﻤﺅﺘﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻜﺭﻙ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‪ .‬ﺘﺎﺭﻴﺦ ﺍﺴﺘﻼﻡ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ‬
‫‪ ،2008/4/13‬ﻭﺘﺎﺭﻴﺦ ﻗﺒﻭﻟﻪ ‪.2009/9/3‬‬

‫© ‪ 2010‬ﻋﻤﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ‪ /‬ﺍﳉﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻧﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﲨﻴﻊ ﺍﳊﻘﻮﻕ ﳏﻔﻮﻇﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪- 465 -‬‬
‫ﻫﺎﻨﻡ ﺭﺠﺏ ﺁل ﺩﺭﻭﻴﺵ ﻭﺃﺤﻤﺩ ﺇﺒﺭﺍﻫﻴﻡ ﻤﻼﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺜﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ‪...‬‬

‫‪.(2006‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻀﻭﻉ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‪ ،‬ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻤﻌﻅﻡ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺜﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‬
‫ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻋﻭﺍﻤل ﻋﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﺃﻫﻤﻬﺎ‪:‬‬
‫‪ (1‬ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺡ‬
‫ﻓﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺡ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺩﻤﻴﻥ ﻷﻱ ﺒﻠﺩ ﺘﺯﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‬
‫ﻟﺫﻟﻙ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﺫﻟﻙ ﻓﺎﻨﻪ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﻭﺒﻴﻥ ﺃﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺡ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺩﻤﻴﻥ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻁﺭﺩﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ (2‬ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ )ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﻲ(‬
‫ﻭﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﻁﺭﺩﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‪ ،‬ﻓﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻤﺎ ﺘﺨﺼﺼﻪ ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ ﻟﻺﻨﻔﺎﻕ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ ﺴﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‪.‬‬
‫‪ (3‬ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻟﻠﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ‬
‫ﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ﻓﻘﻁ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺌﺢ ﺩﺍﺨل ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺭ ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺤﺩ ﻴﻤﺎﺭﺱ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‬
‫ﺒﺎﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺩﺍﻭﻟﺔ‪ .‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﺒﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻓﺎﻟﻤﻁﻠﻭﺏ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺌﺢ ﺃﻥ ﻴﺴﺘﺒﺩل ﻋﻤﻠﺘﻪ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ ﺇﻤﺎ ﺒﻌﻤﻠﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺠﻪ ﺇﻟﻴﻪ ﺃﻭ ﺒﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﻋﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ ﻤﻘﺒﻭﻟﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺩﺍﻭل ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺩ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﺘﻭﺠﻪ ﺇﻟﻴﻪ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺌﺢ‪ ،‬ﺫﻟﻙ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻜﻠﻤﺎ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺽ‬
‫ﺴﻌﺭ ﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻀﻴﻔﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺴﻴﺎﺡ ﺯﺍﺩﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺓ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﺍﺌﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻴﺎﺡ ﺍﻟﻭﺍﻓﺩﻴﻥ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫ﺯﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻗﺩ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺇﺠﺭﺍﺀ ﺘﺨﻔﻴﺽ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻤﺨﻁﻁ ﹰﺎ ﻟﻬﺎ ﻭﻤﻘﺼﻭﺩﺓ ﺒﻬﺩﻑ ﺭﻓﻊ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺘﻨﺸﻴﻁ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺩﻋﻡ ﻤﻴﺯﺍﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺩﻓﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻹﺠﺭﺍﺀ ﺒﻬﺩﻑ‬
‫ﻤﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺎﻭﺭﺓ ﻻﺴﺘﻘﻁﺎﺏ ﺃﻜﺒﺭ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻤﻤﻜﻥ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺡ ﺍﻷﺠﺎﻨﺏ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﺤﺘﺴﺎﺏ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻟﻠﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ﺤﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ )‪:(Mankiw, 1998‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺤﺩﻭﺩ ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺤﺜﻴﻥ‪ -‬ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﻠﻴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻨﺎﻗﺵ ﻫﺫﺍ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺒﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﺘﺭﻜﺯ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﻭﺭ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ )ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺎﺭﻭﺓ‪ ،(2005 ،‬ﺃﻭﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻭﻴﻘﻲ ﻟﻠﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ )ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺝ ﺫﻴﺏ‪،(1990 ،‬‬
‫ﺃﻭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻲ ﻟﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ )ﺍﻟﻭﺤﻭﺵ‪.(2006 ،‬‬
‫ﻫﺩﻑ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻨﻁﻼﻗﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻨﻬﺎ ﺘﻬﺩﻑ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺃﺴﺎﺴﻲ‬
‫ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺼﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﻜﺫﻟﻙ ﺘﺒﻴﺎﻥ ﺍﻷﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻫﺫﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل‬
‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫ ﺇﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﺃﻥ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺇﺠﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻤل ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺘﺭﻙ‪ ،‬ﺘﺤﻠﻴل‬
‫ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻟﺭﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻔﻌل ﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ )‪.(2005-1975‬‬
‫ﻭﻟﺫﻟﻙ ﺴﺘﺤﺎﻭل ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻹﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻷﺴﺌﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺭﺒﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪ .1‬ﻤﺎ ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻨﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ؟‬
‫‪ .2‬ﻤﺎ ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺃﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺡ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺩﻤﻴﻥ ﻟﻸﺭﺩﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺩﺨل‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ؟‬
‫‪ .3‬ﻤﺎ ﺍﻷﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻟﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻟﻠﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ‬
‫ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ﺒﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ؟‬
‫‪ .4‬ﻤﺎ ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ؟‬
‫ﻤﻔﻬﻭﻡ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‬
‫ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺘﻌﺭﻴﻑ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻨﻪ‪ :‬ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﺌﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﻘﻘﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﻨﺸﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﺨﻼل ﻓﺘﺭﺓ ﺴﻨﻪ )ﺍﻟﻭﺤﻭﺵ‪،‬‬

‫ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻟﻠﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ =‬

‫ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻻﺴﻤﻲ ﻟﻠﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ‪ X‬ﺍﻟﺭﻗﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻬﻠﻙ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻤﺭﻴﻜﺎ‬
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‫ﺍﻟﺭﻗﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻬﻠﻙ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‬

‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ﻴﻌﻭﺩ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺘﻭﻓﺭ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻻﺴﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻴﺭ ﺒﺎﻟﺫﻜﺭ ﺒﺄﻥ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﻼﺕ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ )ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ( ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل‬
‫)‪ (2007-1972‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻜﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﺏ ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺭﻜﻴﺯ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬

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 ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻭﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﹼﺩ ‪ ،37‬ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ ‪2010 ،2‬‬

‫ﻤﺤﺩﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻘﺩ ﻭﺍﺠﻪ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺤﺜﺎﻥ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﻜﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻗﺩ ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﺒﻤﺜﺎﺒﺔ‬
‫ﻤﺤﺩﺩﺍﺕ ﻟﻠﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻤﻥ ﺃﻫﻤﻬﺎ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﻻ ﻴﻭﺠﺩ ﻓﺼل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‬
‫ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﺎ ﻫﻭ ﻤﺘﺄﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺨﻠﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﻻ ﻴﻭﺠﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻤﺅﺸﺭ‬
‫ﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﺫﻟﻙ ﻟﺠﺄ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺤﺜﺎﻥ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﺴﺘﺒﺩﺍﻟﻪ‬
‫ﺒﺎﺤﺘﺴﺎﺏ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺸﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻴﺸﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‬
‫ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻬﺎﻤﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻭﻓﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻌﺒﺔ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫ ﻴﺴﺎﻫﻡ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﺒﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ ‪ %11‬ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫)‪ ،(GDP‬ﻭﻴﻭﻓﺭ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﻥ ‪ 100‬ﺃﻟﻑ ﻭﻅﻴﻔﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﺤﺘﺎﺝ ﺇﻟﻰ‬
‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ ‪ 5000‬ﻋﺎﻤل ﺇﻀﺎﻓﻲ ﺴﻨﻭﻴﹰﺎ ﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺘﺸﻐﻴل ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻬﻴﻼﺕ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ )ﻫﻴﺌﺔ ﺘﻨﺸﻴﻁ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺭﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻱ‪.(2006 ،‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﺸﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ (1‬ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻤﺴﺎﻫﻤﺔ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﻜﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﻐﻁﻴﺔ ﻜﺎﻤل‬
‫ﻓﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ )‪ .(2005-1975‬ﻭﺒﺎﻟﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻓﺘﺭﺓ ﺘﺩﺍﻭل‬
‫ﺍﻟﻴﻭﺭﻭ ﻗﺼﻴﺭﺓ ﻨﺴﺒﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﺎ ﻴﺘﻭﻓﺭ ﻋﻥ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺼﺭﻓﻪ ﻻ ﻴﺘﻌﺩﻯ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ )‪ .(2007-1993‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻴﺘﻌﻠﻕ ﺒﺄﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺸﻭﺭﺓ ﻟﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺭﻙ ﺍﻷﻟﻤﺎﻨﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﻔﺭﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻨﺴﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﺠﻨﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺭﻟﻴﻨﻲ ﻓﻼ ﺘﺘﺠﺎﻭﺯ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ )‪ ،(2000-1972‬ﻭﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺘﺘﺩﺍﺨل ﺒﺩﻭﺭﻫﺎ ﻤﻊ ﻓﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻴﻭﺭﻭ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺫﻜﺭ‪ ،‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﺴﻴﺅﺩﻱ‬
‫ﺒﺎﻟﺘﺄﻜﻴﺩ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻅﻬﻭﺭ ﻨﻭﻉ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﺯﺩﻭﺍﺠﻴﺔ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻤل ﻤﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﻭﺒﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻴﺘﻌﻠﻕ ﺒﺄﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻼ ﺘﺤﺘﻭﻱ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻴﺔ ﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺘﺎﺭﻴﺨﻴﺔ ﻟﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪ (4‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻤﻘﺎﺴﺎ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺭﻗﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻴﺸﺔ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﺃﻥ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺇﻟﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻴﺭ ﺒﺎﻟﺫﻜﺭ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺍﺤﺘﺴﺎﺏ ﻤﻌﺩل‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺭﻜﻴﺯ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺭﻗﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻬﻠﻙ ﻜﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﻤﺜل )‪(Proxy Variable‬‬
‫ﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻟﻌﺩﻡ ﺘﻭﻓﺭ ﻤﺅﺸﺭ ﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻜﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺘﺎﺭﻴﺨﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪(1‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻋﻲ ﻟﻠﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺒﺎﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ ﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺃﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻘﺘﺭﺓ )‪(2005-1975‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻐﺎﺒﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺄﻤﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻹﻨﺸﺎﺀﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺼﻴﺩ ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺎﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻭﻴﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎل‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ‬
‫‪36.5‬‬ ‫‪30.2‬‬ ‫‪35.7‬‬ ‫‪34.0‬‬ ‫‪84.7‬‬ ‫‪435.9‬‬ ‫‪1975‬‬
‫‪44.4‬‬ ‫‪42.4‬‬ ‫‪68.86‬‬ ‫‪48.6‬‬ ‫‪100.6‬‬ ‫‪567.3‬‬ ‫‪1976‬‬
‫‪55.4‬‬ ‫‪52.7‬‬ ‫‪95.0‬‬ ‫‪60.8‬‬ ‫‪117.6‬‬ ‫‪690.4‬‬ ‫‪1977‬‬
‫‪66.6‬‬ ‫‪77.0‬‬ ‫‪104.29‬‬ ‫‪67.5‬‬ ‫‪139.3‬‬ ‫‪795.4‬‬ ‫‪1978‬‬
‫‪87.1‬‬ ‫‪61.6‬‬ ‫‪133.34‬‬ ‫‪91.8‬‬ ‫‪197.1‬‬ ‫‪982.5‬‬ ‫‪1979‬‬
‫‪104.2‬‬ ‫‪83.2‬‬ ‫‪154.9‬‬ ‫‪104.6‬‬ ‫‪221.8‬‬ ‫‪1164.8‬‬ ‫‪1980‬‬
‫‪133.5‬‬ ‫‪79.8‬‬ ‫‪180.8‬‬ ‫‪167.1‬‬ ‫‪239.5‬‬ ‫‪1448.7‬‬ ‫‪1981‬‬
‫‪174.8‬‬ ‫‪92.9‬‬ ‫‪183.5‬‬ ‫‪181.3‬‬ ‫‪276.1‬‬ ‫‪1649.9‬‬ ‫‪1982‬‬
‫‪187.1‬‬ ‫‪109.9‬‬ ‫‪183.1‬‬ ‫‪189.3‬‬ ‫‪310.1‬‬ ‫‪1786.6‬‬ ‫‪1983‬‬
‫‪185.7‬‬ ‫‪97.7‬‬ ‫‪173.3‬‬ ‫‪205.6‬‬ ‫‪354.5‬‬ ‫‪1909.7‬‬ ‫‪1984‬‬
‫‪149.2‬‬ ‫‪96.9‬‬ ‫‪204.2‬‬ ‫‪189.2‬‬ ‫‪375.7‬‬ ‫‪1970.5‬‬ ‫‪1985‬‬
‫‪138.2‬‬ ‫‪114.3‬‬ ‫‪186.3‬‬ ‫‪274.4‬‬ ‫‪382.2‬‬ ‫‪2240.5‬‬ ‫‪1986‬‬
‫‪121.0‬‬ ‫‪134.7‬‬ ‫‪196.4‬‬ ‫‪293.2‬‬ ‫‪397.1‬‬ ‫‪2286.7‬‬ ‫‪1987‬‬

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‫ﻫﺎﻨﻡ ﺭﺠﺏ ﺁل ﺩﺭﻭﻴﺵ ﻭﺃﺤﻤﺩ ﺇﺒﺭﺍﻫﻴﻡ ﻤﻼﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺜﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ‪...‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻐﺎﺒﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺄﻤﻴﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬

‫ﺍﻹﻨﺸﺎﺀﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺼﻴﺩ ﺍﻷﺴﻤﺎﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻭﻴﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎل‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ‬
‫‪114.3‬‬ ‫‪137.6‬‬ ‫‪230.8‬‬ ‫‪259.8‬‬ ‫‪446.1‬‬ ‫‪2349.5‬‬ ‫‪1988‬‬
‫‪120.9‬‬ ‫‪132.7‬‬ ‫‪314.6‬‬ ‫‪261.2‬‬ ‫‪489.5‬‬ ‫‪2425.4‬‬ ‫‪1989‬‬
‫‪107.1‬‬ ‫‪190.0‬‬ ‫‪339.8‬‬ ‫‪352.5‬‬ ‫‪490.3‬‬ ‫‪2760.9‬‬ ‫‪1990‬‬
‫‪127.0‬‬ ‫‪214.3‬‬ ‫‪216.0‬‬ ‫‪347.4‬‬ ‫‪571.4‬‬ ‫‪2958.0‬‬ ‫‪1991‬‬
‫‪217.1‬‬ ‫‪247.0‬‬ ‫‪214.3‬‬ ‫‪444.6‬‬ ‫‪620.9‬‬ ‫‪3610.6‬‬ ‫‪1992‬‬
‫‪285.6‬‬ ‫‪199.2‬‬ ‫‪390.2‬‬ ‫‪443.3‬‬ ‫‪703.3‬‬ ‫‪3884.3‬‬ ‫‪1993‬‬
‫‪201.8‬‬ ‫‪192.9‬‬ ‫‪406.4‬‬ ‫‪586.0‬‬ ‫‪749.3‬‬ ‫‪4358.3‬‬ ‫‪1994‬‬
‫‪300.1‬‬ ‫‪173.7‬‬ ‫‪462.5‬‬ ‫‪606.9‬‬ ‫‪828.6‬‬ ‫‪4714.6‬‬ ‫‪1995‬‬
‫‪254.8‬‬ ‫‪158.6‬‬ ‫‪527.2‬‬ ‫‪570.0‬‬ ‫‪882.1‬‬ ‫‪4912.2‬‬ ‫‪1996‬‬
‫‪240.5‬‬ ‫‪148.3‬‬ ‫‪548.8‬‬ ‫‪621.6‬‬ ‫‪918.6‬‬ ‫‪5137.5‬‬ ‫‪1997‬‬
‫‪214.6‬‬ ‫‪144.7‬‬ ‫‪548.5‬‬ ‫‪742.0‬‬ ‫‪979.1‬‬ ‫‪5609.8‬‬ ‫‪1998‬‬
‫‪207.1‬‬ ‫‪115.9‬‬ ‫‪564.0‬‬ ‫‪760.7‬‬ ‫‪990.9‬‬ ‫‪5778.1‬‬ ‫‪1999‬‬
‫‪203.3‬‬ ‫‪120.9‬‬ ‫‪512.4‬‬ ‫‪807.2‬‬ ‫‪1072.1‬‬ ‫‪5998.6‬‬ ‫‪2000‬‬
‫‪231.0‬‬ ‫‪124.3‬‬ ‫‪496.2‬‬ ‫‪861.2‬‬ ‫‪1136.1‬‬ ‫‪6363.8‬‬ ‫‪2001‬‬
‫‪251.7‬‬ ‫‪148.9‬‬ ‫‪557.3‬‬ ‫‪987.7‬‬ ‫‪1236.2‬‬ ‫‪6794.0‬‬ ‫‪2002‬‬
‫‪268.3‬‬ ‫‪178.3‬‬ ‫‪577.7‬‬ ‫‪1082.6‬‬ ‫‪1311.3‬‬ ‫‪7228.7‬‬ ‫‪2003‬‬
‫‪324.4‬‬ ‫‪202.1‬‬ ‫‪943.0‬‬ ‫‪1313.6‬‬ ‫‪1444.4‬‬ ‫‪8081.3‬‬ ‫‪2004‬‬
‫‪358.9‬‬ ‫‪223.3‬‬ ‫‪1021.6‬‬ ‫‪1527.7‬‬ ‫‪1565.9‬‬ ‫‪9012.2‬‬ ‫‪2005‬‬
‫ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬
‫‪%7.7‬‬ ‫‪%6.7‬‬ ‫‪%11.7‬‬ ‫‪%13.1‬‬ ‫‪%9.9‬‬ ‫‪%10.3‬‬ ‫ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬
‫)‪(2005-1975‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ‪ (1 :‬ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺭﺓ ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺩﺍﺌﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﺒﺤﺎﺙ ﻭﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ‪.2006 ،‬‬
‫‪ (2‬ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ ﻭﺍﻵﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻴﺔ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻴﺘﻌﻠﻕ ﺒﺎﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺄﺘﻲ ﻤﻥ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻤﻠﺤﻭﻅﺔ‪ :‬ﺘﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﺒﻬﺩﻑ ﺘﻭﻀﻴﺢ ﻤﺴﺎﻫﻤﺔ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ‪.‬‬

‫ﻤﺭﺍﻜﺯ ﺍﻟﺠﺫﺏ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺸﺩﺓ ﻤﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺎﻭﺭﺓ ﻤﺜل ﺘﺭﻜﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﻗﺒﺭﺹ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻴﻭﻨﺎﻥ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻓﻲ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪1990‬ﻡ ﺒﻠﻐﺕ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻤﺴﺎﻫﻤﺔ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ ‪ 339.8‬ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ ﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺃﺭﺩﻨﻲ‪،‬‬
‫ﺃﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪1991‬ﻡ ﻓﻘﺩ ﺸﻬﺩ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﻀﺎ ﻤﻠﺤﻭﻅﺎ‬
‫ﺤﻴﺙ ﺒﻠﻐﺕ ﻤﺴﺎﻫﻤﺘﻪ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ‪ 216‬ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬
‫ﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺃﺭﺩﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪1992‬ﻡ ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ ‪ 214.3‬ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ ﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺃﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﺒﺎﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻴﻌﺯﻯ ﺴﺒﺏ ﻫﺫﺍ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺤﺭﺏ ﺍﻟﺨﻠﻴﺞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺍﻨﺩﻟﻌﺕ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪1990‬‬
‫ﻤﻤﺎ ﺃﺜﺭ ﺴﻠﺒﹰﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪1999‬‬
‫ﺤﻘﻕ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ ‪ 564‬ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ ﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﻀﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﻫﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 2000‬ﺇﻟﻰ ﻤﺎ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻪ ‪ 512.4‬ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ ﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ‪،‬‬
‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﻌﺕ ﻤﻥ ‪ 35.7‬ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ ﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺃﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 1975‬ﺇﻟﻰ‬
‫‪ 1021.6‬ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ ﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺃﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 2005‬ﺒﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬
‫ﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭﻩ ‪ %11.7‬ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ )‪ .(2005-1975‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻼﺤﻅ‬
‫ﺃﻴﻀﹰﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ ﺸﻬﺩ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﻀﹰﺎ ﻤﻠﺤﻭﻅﹰﺎ ﺨﻼل ﻋﺎﻡ‬
‫‪ 1986‬ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﻤﻊ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 1985‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺒﻠﻐﺕ ﻤﺴﺎﻫﻤﺘﻪ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 1985‬ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ ‪ 204.2‬ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬
‫ﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺃﺭﺩﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻨﺨﻔﻀﺕ ﻤﺴﺎﻫﻤﺘﻪ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 1986‬ﺇﻟﻰ ‪186.3‬‬
‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ ﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺒﺎﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺭﺒﻤﺎ ﻴﻌﻭﺩ ﺴﺒﺏ ﻫﺫﺍ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﻨﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﺒﻁﺎﻟﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻡ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﻷﺤﻭﺍل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻅﺭﻭﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﺒﺘﺭﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺎﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻋﺎﻨﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﺘﺭﻭل‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺠﻪ ﻨﺤﻭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺨﻠﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﻟﻘﻠﺔ‬

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‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻔﺭﺱ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻹﻏﺭﻴﻕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻷﻨﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺫﻴﻥ ﺒﻨﻭﺍ ﺩﻭﻟﺘﻬﻡ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺠﻨﻭﺏ ﺍﻟﺒﻼﺩ ﻭﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻤﺩﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺘﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﻭﺭﺩﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﺼﻤﺔ ﻟﻬﻡ‬
‫ﻭﻤﺭﻜﺯﹰﺍ ﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﹰﺎ ﻭﺤﻀﺎﺭﻴﹰﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪ (5‬ﻋﺎﻤل ﺍﻷﻤﻥ ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ‬
‫ﻴﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﺒﻌﺎﻤل ﺍﻷﻤﻥ ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ‪ ،‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺠﻌﻠﻪ ﻤﻤﻴﺯﹰﺍ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻜﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻡ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﻟﺴﺎﺌﺢ ﻴﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﺒﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﻜﺎﻤﻠﺔ ﺃﺜﻨﺎﺀ‬
‫ﺇﻗﺎﻤﺘﻪ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺃﻴﺔ ﻗﻴﻭﺩ ﺃﻭ ﺨﻭﻑ‪ ،‬ﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺭﻭﻑ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﻴﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﺒﻌﻨﺼﺭﻱ ﺍﻷﻤﻥ ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻤﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻬﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺠﻌل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺡ ﻻ ﻴﺘﺭﺩﺩﻭﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﺩﻭﻡ ﺇﻟﻴﻪ‪.‬‬
‫‪ (6‬ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻭّﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺠﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﻁﻥ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﺤﺴﻥ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺒﺎل ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﻁﻨﻴﻥ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻴﻴﻥ ﻟﻠﺴﻴﺎﺡ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺩﻤﻴﻥ ﺇﻟﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﺤﺏ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﻋﺩﺓ ﻟﻬﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﻁﻥ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﻭﺏ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻔﺎﻫﻡ ﻤﻊ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ ﺍﻟﺠﻨﺴﻴﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻡ ﻴﺸﻌﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺌﺢ ﺒﺎﻟﺭﺍﺤﺔ ﻭﻴﺸﺠﻌﻪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﻜﻴﺭ ﺒﺯﻴﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﻤﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺃﺨﺭﻯ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﻷﺸﺠﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻁﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﻨﻬﺎﺭ )ﻏﻭﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ(‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺼﺤﺭﺍﺀ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﻨﻭﺍﻉ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‬
‫ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺘﺼﻨﻴﻑ ﺃﻨﻭﺍﻉ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪ (1‬ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﻘﺎﻓﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺘﺸﻤل ﺯﻴﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺍﻷﺜﺭﻴﺔ ﻟﻺﻁﻼﻉ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻭﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ‬
‫ﺤﻀﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺘﻘﺎﻟﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﺸﻌﻭﺏ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻋﺎﺸﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺨﻼل‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺼﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺒﺭﺓ‪ .‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺃﻫﻡ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﻤﺩﻴﻨﺘﺎ ﺍﻟﺒﺘﺭﺍﺀ ﻭﺠﺭﺵ‪،‬‬
‫ﻗﻠﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﺭﻙ‪ ،‬ﻗﻠﻌﺔ ﻋﺠﻠﻭﻥ‪ ،‬ﺃﻡ ﻗﻴﺱ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻤﺩﺭﺝ ﺍﻟﺭﻭﻤﺎﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻜﻬﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺭﻗﻴﻡ‪.‬‬
‫‪ (2‬ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﺠﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺘﺸﻤل ﺘﻭﻓﺭ ﺍﻟﻴﻨﺎﺒﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻁﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺩﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺭﺍﺤﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﺴﻤﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻔﺴﻴﺔ ﻭﺯﻴﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺤﺎﺕ ﻭﺃﻤﺎﻜﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺸﻔﺎﺀ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺃﻫﻤﻬﺎ ﺸﻭﺍﻁﺊ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺒﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺕ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺤﻤﺎﻤﺎﺕ ﻤﺎﻋﻴﻥ ﻭﻋﻔﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﻜﺒﺭﻴﺘﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﻏﻭﺍﺭ‬
‫ﻭﺒﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﻤﺔ‪ .‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﻴﻭﺠﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺸﻔﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻴﺜﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺯﻭﺩﺓ ﺒﺎﻷﺠﻬﺯﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻌﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬
‫ﻭﻴﺸﺭﻑ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺃﻁﺒﺎﺀ ﺃﺭﺩﻨﻴﻭﻥ ﻤﺘﻤﻴﺯﻭﻥ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻬﺎﺭﺍﺘﻬﻡ ﺍﻟﻁﺒﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﻤﺘﺨﺼﺼﻭﻥ ﻓﻲ ﻜﺎﻓﺔ ﺃﻨﻭﺍﻉ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﺠﺎﺕ‪.‬‬
‫‪ (3‬ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻨﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺘﻌﻨﻲ ﺯﻴﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﺎﻜﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﻴﺨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﻴﻭﺠﺩ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﻤﺎﻜﻥ ﻭﺍﻷﻀﺭﺤﺔ ﻭﺒﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻤﻨﺎﻁﻕ ﺍﻟﻜﺭﻙ‪ ،‬ﻤﻌﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﺩﻱ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻠﻁ‪ ،‬ﻤﺜل ﺃﻀﺭﺤﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺼﺤﺎﺒﺔ ﺠﻌﻔﺭ ﺒﻥ ﺃﺒﻲ ﻁﺎﻟﺏ ﻭﻋﺒﺩﺍﷲ ﺒﻥ ﺭﻭﺍﺤﺔ ﻭﺯﻴﺩ ﺒﻥ‬
‫ﺤﺎﺭﺜﺔ ﻭﺃﺒﻭ ﻋﺒﻴﺩﺓ ﻋﺎﻤﺭ ﺒﻥ ﺍﻟﺠﺭﺍﺡ ﻭﺸﺭﺤﺒﻴل ﺒﻥ ﺤﺴﻨﺔ‬
‫ﻭﻀﺭﺍﺭ ﺒﻥ ﺍﻷﺯﻭﺭ ﺭﻀﻲ ﺍﷲ ﻋﻨﻬﻡ‪.‬‬
‫‪- 469 -‬‬
‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻭﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﹼﺩ ‪ ،37‬ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ ‪2010 ،2‬‬
‫ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 2001‬ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻭﺼﻠﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺴﺘﻤﺭ ﺍﻻﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ ﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﺭﺒﻤﺎ ﻴﻌﻭﺩ ﺴﺒﺏ ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﻫﻤﺔ ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ ‪496.2‬‬
‫ﺍﻷﻗﺼﻰ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺍﻀﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﻠﺴﻁﻴﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻨﺘﻔﺎﻀﺔ‬
‫ﻋﺩﻡ ﺘﻭﻓﺭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻜﺎﻤل ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺘﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﺃﺩﻯ ﺇﻟﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻤﻘﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‬
‫ﻴﺘﻤﻴﺯ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﺒﺘﻭﻓﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻨﻭﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻤﺜل ﻋﻨﺼﺭ ﺠﺫﺏ ﺴﻴﺎﺤﻴﹰﺎ ﻤﻬﻤﺎﹰ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪ (1‬ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺎﺭﻴﺱ‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺘﺘﻤﻴﺯ ﺒﺘﻨﻭﻉ ﺘﻀﺎﺭﻴﺴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻁﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬
‫ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻤﻥ ﻋﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻟﺠﺫﺏ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻬﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻻﺴﺘﻘﻁﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺡ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺩﻤﻴﻥ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﺍﻟﺫﻴﻥ ﻴﺒﺤﺜﻭﻥ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﻁﺒﻴﻌﺔ‬
‫ﻜﺎﻟﺠﺒﺎل )ﻋﺠﻠﻭﻥ(‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻭﺍﺤل )ﺨﻠﻴﺞ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺒﺔ(‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻐﺎﺒﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻭﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻜﻴﻠﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺎﺭﻴﺱ ﺘﻌﻤل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺫﻭﺍﻕ‪.‬‬
‫‪ (2‬ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺥ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺘﺩل‬
‫ﻴﺘﻤﻴﺯ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﺒﻤﻨﺎﺨﻪ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺘﺩل ﻁﻭﺍل ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻭل‬
‫ﺍﻷﺭﺒﻌﺔ‪ ،‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﺒﻲ ﺃﺫﻭﺍﻕ ﻭﺭﻏﺒﺎﺕ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺡ‪ ،‬ﺫﻟﻙ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺡ ﻴﺫﻫﺒﻭﻥ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻁﻕ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻓﺼل ﺍﻟﺸﺘﺎﺀ‬
‫ﻫﺭﻭﺒﹰﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﺭﻭﺩﺓ ﻤﺜل ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﻏﻭﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺕ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻘﺒﺔ‪ .‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺡ ﺍﻟﺫﻴﻥ ﻴﺒﺤﺜﻭﻥ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﺭﻭﺩﺓ ﻓﻴﺫﻫﺒﻭﻥ ﺇﻟﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺼﻤﺔ ﻋﻤﺎﻥ ﻭﺠﺒﺎل ﻋﺠﻠﻭﻥ‪ .‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻓﺼل ﺍﻟﺭﺒﻴﻊ ﻓﻴﻜﻭﻥ‬
‫ﻼ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺸﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﻤﺜل ﻋﺠﻠﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺠﻭ ﻟﻁﻴﻔﹰﺎ ﻭﺠﻤﻴ ًﹰ‬
‫ﻭﺩﺒﻴﻥ‪.‬‬
‫‪ (3‬ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻗﻊ ﺍﻟﺠﻐﺭﺍﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻴﻤﺜل ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﻤﻭﻗﻌﹰﺎ ﻤﺘﻤﻴﺯﹰﺍ ﻓﻲ ﻭﺴﻁ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺒﻲ‪ ،‬ﻤﻤﺎ‬
‫ﻴﺠﻌﻠﻪ ﻤﺤﻁﺔ ﻟﺘﻭﻗﻑ ﻤﻌﻅﻡ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺡ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺩﻤﻴﻥ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺒﻲ‬
‫ﻟﻼﺴﺘﻤﺘﺎﻉ ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻨﺎﺥ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺘﺩل ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻁﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻨﻭﻋﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺠﻭﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‪.‬‬
‫‪ (4‬ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﻴﺨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﺜﺭﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺤﻀﺎﺭﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻴﻀﻡ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﺍﻟﻜﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﻴﺨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﺜﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻬﺎﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻤﻤﻴﺯﺓ ﻋﺎﻟﻤﻴﺎﹰ‪ ،‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺠﻌل ﻤﺤﺒﻲ ﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ ﺍﻵﺜﺎﺭ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺎﺤﺜﻴﻥ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﻴﺦ ﻴﺄﺘﻭﻥ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﻟﺭﺅﻴﺔ ﺍﻵﺜﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺠﻭﺩﺓ ﻓﻴﻪ ﻭﺍﻹﻁﻼﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﺎﺭﻴﺦ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻵﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻋﺎﺸﺕ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺘﺘﺎﺒﻌﺕ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻜﺜﻴﺭ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﻀﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﻭﺍﻹﻤﺒﺭﺍﻁﻭﺭﻴﺎﺕ ﻤﺜل ﺤﻀﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻭﻨﻴﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻵﺸﻭﺭﻴﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺅﺍﺒﻴﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻷﺩﻭﻤﻴﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺎﺒﻠﻴﻴﻥ‪،‬‬
‫ﻫﺎﻨﻡ ﺭﺠﺏ ﺁل ﺩﺭﻭﻴﺵ ﻭﺃﺤﻤﺩ ﺇﺒﺭﺍﻫﻴﻡ ﻤﻼﻭﻱ‬
‫ﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﻴﺭﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ‪(Salleh, Siong-Hook, Ramachandran, and Shuib,‬‬
‫)‪2008‬‬
‫ﻫﺩﻓﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺼﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺘﻴﻥ ﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺠل‬
‫ﻭﻗﺼﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﺠل ﺒﻴﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺡ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺩﻤﻴﻥ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻤﺎﻟﻴﺯﻴﺎ )ﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬
‫ﻴﻤﺜل ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺎﻟﻴﺯﻴﺎ( ﻤﻥ ﺠﻬﺔ ﻭﺒﻴﻥ ﻜل ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ )ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﺘﻡ ﻗﻴﺎﺴﻪ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﺇﻴﺠﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﺭﻗﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻴﺸﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺎﻟﻴﺯﻴﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺭﻗﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ‬
‫ﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻴﺸﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺒﻠﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺌﺢ(‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﺩﻴل )ﻭﻴﻌﻨﻲ ﻤﻌﺩل‬
‫ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻁﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﻤﺜل ﺴﻨﻐﺎﻓﻭﺭﺓ(‪،‬‬
‫ﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻑ ﺍﻟﺴﻔﺭ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻤﺎﻟﻴﺯﻴﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺒﻠﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺌﺢ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺩﻡ‪ ،‬ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺒﻠﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺌﺢ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺩﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﻟﺴﺒﻊ ﺩﻭل ﺁﺴﻴﻭﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺘﻭﺼﻠﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻋﻜﺴﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺎﻟﻴﺯﻴﺎ ﻭﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﻅﻡ ﺩﻭل ﻋﻴﻨﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻋﻜﺴﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﻭﺒﻴﻥ‬
‫ﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻑ ﺍﻟﺴﻔﺭ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻤﺎﻟﻴﺯﻴﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﻅﻡ ﺩﻭل ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ‬
‫ﻭﺠﺩﺕ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻴﺠﺎﺒﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺎﻟﻴﺯﻴﺎ ﻭﺒﻴﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﺩﻴل ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﻅﻡ ﺩﻭل ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻴﺠﺎﺒﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﻭﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﻓﻲ ﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺩﻤﻴﻥ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻤﺎﻟﻴﺯﻴﺎ‪ .‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻴﺘﻌﻠﻕ ﺒﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‪ ،‬ﻓﻠﻡ‬
‫ﺘﺠﺩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺃﻴﺔ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻟﻪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺎﻟﻴﺯﻴﺎ‬
‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺠل‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ )‪(Muchapondwa and Pimhidzai, 2008‬‬
‫ﻫﺩﻓﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﻤﻌﺎﻤﻼﺕ ﻤﺤﺩﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺯﻴﻤﺒﺎﺒﻭﻱ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ )‪-1998‬‬
‫‪ .(2005‬ﻭﺒﻴ‪‬ﻨﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺃﻥ ﺃﺫﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴ‪‬ﺎﺡ ﻭﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﻓﻲ ﺒﻠﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺌﺢ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻟﻬﺎ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺍﻴﺠﺎﺒﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺎﻟﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﻓﺎﻥ ﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻑ ﺍﻟﻨﻘل ﻜﺎﻥ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﻫﺎ ﺴﻠﺒﻴﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﻻ ﻴﻭﺠﺩ ﺃﻱ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺴﻭﺍﺀ ﺩﺍﺨل ﺯﻴﻤﺒﺎﺒﻭﻱ ﺃﻭ ﺨﺎﺭﺠﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﺏ‪ -‬ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺃﺠﺭﻴﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺝ ﺫﻴﺏ )‪ (1990‬ﺒﻌﻨﻭﺍﻥ "ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻭﻴﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ"‬
‫ﻫﺩﻓﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﺭﻜﻴﺯ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻭﻴﻘﻲ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﺍﻓﺩﺓ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺎﺭﻭﺓ )‪ (2005‬ﺒﻌﻨﻭﺍﻥ "ﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ‪ :‬ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ‬
‫)‪:"(2003-1975‬‬
‫ﻫﺩﻓﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺼﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﺅﺩﻴﻪ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺤﺙ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬
‫‪- 470 -‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺜﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ‪...‬‬
‫‪ (4‬ﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ ﺍﻻﺼﻁﻴﺎﻑ‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﺘﻨﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺥ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻨﺎﻁﻕ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﻴﺸﺠﻊ ﺍﻟﻜﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﺩﻭﻡ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﻟﻘﻀﺎﺀ ﻋﻁﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻑ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺃﺠﻭﺍﺌﻪ ﺍﻟﺨﻼﺒﺔ ﻤﺜل ﺃﺤﺭﺍﺝ ﺩﺒﻴﻥ ﻭﺠﺒﺎل ﻋﺠﻠﻭﻥ‪.‬‬
‫‪ (5‬ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ ﺍﻟﺭﻴﺎﻀﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻴﻤﺎﺭﺱ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺡ ﺃﻨﻭﺍﻋﺎ ﻜﺜﻴﺭﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺭﻴﺎﻀﺘﻬﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺒﺒﺔ ﻤﺜل‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺯﻟﺞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺀ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﺒﺎﺤﺔ ﻭﺼﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻤﻙ ﻭﺍﻟﺼﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﺒﺭﻱ‬
‫ﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻨﺎﻁﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺒﺔ ﻭﻭﺍﺩﻱ ﺭﻡ ﻭﺍﻷﺯﺭﻕ‪.‬‬
‫‪ (6‬ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺘﻭﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺘﺸﻤل ﻗﻀﺎﺀ ﻓﺼل ﺍﻟﺸﺘﺎﺀ ﺃﻭ ﺠﺯﺀ ﻤﻨﻪ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻤﺎﻜﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﻑﺀ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻁﺒﻴﻌﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﻏﻭﺍﺭ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺤﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺕ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ‬
‫ﻨﻅﺭﺍ ﻟﻨﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﺩﺏ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﻠﻕ ﺒﻬﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻀﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﺩ‬
‫ﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﻠﺠﻭﺀ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﺴﺘﻌﺭﺍﺽ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻡ‬
‫ﺘﻘﺴﻴﻤﻬﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻗﺴﻤﻴﻥ ﺭﺌﻴﺴﻴﻥ ﻜﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﺃ‪ -‬ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺃﺠﺭﻴﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﻭل ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻫﻤﻬﺎ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ )‪(Kara, Tarim, and Tatoglu, 2003‬‬
‫ﻫﺩﻓﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺼﺎﺀ ﺍﻷﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻤﺤﺩﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺠﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺘﺭﻜﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪LnTR = B0 + B1LnEp + B2LnEh +B3LnPc +B4LnD +U‬‬
‫ﺤﻴﺙ‪:‬‬
‫‪ :TR‬ﻴﻤﺜل ﺍﻹﻴﺭﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‬
‫‪ : Ep‬ﻴﻤﺜل ﻨﻭﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﻁﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻡ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ‬
‫ﻤﻌﺎﻴﻴﺭ ﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﻭﻋﻴﺔ ﻤﺜل ﺠﻤﺎل ﺍﻟﻁﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﻭﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻵﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﻴﺨﻴﺔ ﻭﻨﻭﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻬﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺴﻴ‪‬ﺎﺡ‪.‬‬
‫‪ :Eh‬ﻴﻤﺜل ﻨﻭﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺭﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻡ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻤﻌﺎﻴﻴﺭ ﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ‬
‫ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﺜل ﻤﺩﻯ ﻭﻋﻲ ﻭﺘﻔﻬﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﻁﻨﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﻴﻥ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺜﻘﺎﻓﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﻭﻷﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ ﻭﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻨﺸﺎﻁﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻭﺘﺴﻬﻴﻼﺕ ﺜﻘﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ‪.‬‬
‫‪ :Pc‬ﻤﺅﺸﺭ ﻴﻤﺜل ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ :D‬ﻴﻤﺜل ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﺘﻡ ﻗﻴﺎﺴﻪ ﺒﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﻤﺜل ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻴﺸﺔ ﻭﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﻭﺘﻨﻭﻉ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻬﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ :U‬ﺤﺩ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺄ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻭﺍﺌﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺘﻭﺼل ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺤﺜﻭﻥ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺍﻴﺠﺎﺒﻲ ﻟﻜل ﻤﻥ ﻨﻭﻋﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﻨﻭﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺭﻴﺔ ﻭﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﻴﺭﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﻰ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺴﻠﺒﻲ‬

‫‪ :Ai‬ﻤﺼﻔﻭﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻤﻼﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺭﺘﺒﺔ )‪.(5X5‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ‪ VAR‬ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﻟﻴﺏ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻴﺜﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬
‫ﻴﺘﻡ ﺒﻬﺎ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ‬
‫ﻴﺘﻡ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻷﺴﻠﻭﺏ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺒﻴﺭ ﻋﻥ ﻜل ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻜﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺨﻁﻴﺔ ﺒﻘﻴﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻨﻔﺴﻪ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺒﻘﻴﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻜل ﻤﺎ ﻴﺤﺘﺎﺠﻪ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺤﺙ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻫﻭ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺘﻔﺎﻋل ﻤﻊ‬
‫ﺒﻌﻀﻬﺎ ﺒﻌﻀﹰﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺒﺎﻟﻁﺒﻊ ﻻ ﺘﻭﺠﺩ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ )‪ (Exogenous Variables‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻌﺎﻤل ﺠﻤﻴﻊ‬
‫‪(Endogenous‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻨﻬﺎ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺩﺍﺨﻠﻴﺔ‬
‫)‪ Variables‬ﻓﻲ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ‪ VAR‬ﻭﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﺒﻨﺎ ‪‬ﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺒﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺤﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﻭﻓﻘﹰﺎ ﻟﻠﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‬
‫ﻴﻤﺘﺎﺯ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ‪ VAR‬ﻋﻥ ﻏﻴﺭﻩ ﺒﺄﻨﻪ ﻴﺘﻁﻠﺏ ﺃﻗل ﻤﺎ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻁﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻫﺫﺍ ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﻜﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﻻ ﺘﻌﺩ ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻻﻥ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻻ ﺘﺘﻌﺎﻤل ﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴﺎ ﻤﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻟﻴﺱ ﻟﻬﺎ ﺃﻱ ﻤﻌﻨﻰ ﻫﻨﺎ ﻷﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﻟﻥ‬
‫ﻴﺨﻠﻭ ﻤﻥ ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺍﻻﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﻲ )‪ .(Multicollinearity‬ﻜﻤﺎ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﺃﻨﺼﺎﺭ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻭﻉ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﻴﻘﺘﻨﻌﻭﻥ ﺒﺄﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺭﺒﻤﺎ ﻻ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻗﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﻭﺒﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﺸﻜل ﺍﻟﺩﻗﻴﻕ ‪(Pindyck and Rubinfeld,‬‬
‫)‪.1991‬‬
‫ﻭﺴﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺭﺴﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻋﻥ ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ ﻭﺍﻵﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺩﺍﺌﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻴﺘﻌﻠﻕ ﺒﺎﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺨﻴﺼﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺴﻴﺘﻡ ﺇﺠﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺨﻴﺼﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﺭﻑ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﻫﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﺃﻭﻻ( ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺠﺫﺭ ﺍﻟﻭﺤﺩﺓ ﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻤﺩﻯ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭﻴﺔ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬
‫)‪(The Unit Root Test‬‬
‫ﻻ ﻤﻥ ﺇﺠﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭﻴﺔ ﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻻﺒﺩ ﺃﻭ ﹰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﻴﻔﺘﺭﺽ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ ﺃﻭ‬
‫ﺴﺎﻜﻨﺔ )‪ (Stationary‬ﻤﻊ ﻤﺭﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ‪ .‬ﻭﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺩﻴﻜﻲ‪-‬‬
‫ﻓﻭﻟﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺃﻫﻡ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻟﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ ﻤﺩﻯ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺜﺎﻨﻴﺎ( ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻤل ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺘﺭﻙ )‪(Cointegration Test‬‬
‫‪- 471 -‬‬
‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻭﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﹼﺩ ‪ ،37‬ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ ‪2010 ،2‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪∆Log(Y) = α0 + α1 ∆Log(TI) + α2 ∆Log(REX) + e‬‬
‫ﺤﻴﺙ‪:‬‬
‫‪ :Y‬ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ‬
‫‪ :TI‬ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‬
‫‪ :REX‬ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻟﻠﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ‬
‫‪ :e‬ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺄ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻭﺍﺌﻲ‬
‫∆‪ :‬ﻤﻌﺎﻤل ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻕ )ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ(‬
‫ﻭﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺤﺙ ﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺠﻭﻫﺎﻨﺴﻥ ﻟﻠﺘﻜﺎﻤل ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺘﺭﻙ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭل ﻟﻠﻭﻏﺎﺭﻴﺘﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻭﺼل ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺤﺙ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﺍﻴﺠﺎﺒﹰﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﻜﺎﻥ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺴﻠﺒﻴﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻻﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺩﻻﻟﺔ ‪.%5‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﺤﻭﺵ )‪ (2006‬ﺒﻌﻨﻭﺍﻥ "ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﺒﺎﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ"‬
‫ﻫﺩﻓﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﺒﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺃﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻴﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺩﻤﻴﻥ ﻟﻸﺭﺩﻥ‪ ،‬ﺃﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻐﺭﻑ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﺎﺩﻕ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻴﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻗﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻌﺸﺭﻴﻥ ﺴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺩﻤﺔ )‪-2006‬‬
‫‪ (2025‬ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ )‪.(ARIMA‬‬
‫ﻭﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻼﺤﻅ ﺃﻥ ﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺘﻌﻠﻕ‬
‫ﺒﺎﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺘﺴﻌﻰ ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻑ‬
‫ﺘﺨﺘﻠﻑ ﺠﺫﺭﻴﺎ ﻋﻥ ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺘﻨﺎ ﻫﺫﻩ‪.‬‬
‫ﻤﻨﻬﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬
‫ﺴﻴﺘﻡ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺃﺴﻠﻭﺏ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل‬
‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫ ﺇﻨﻪ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﺃﻥ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺠﺔ )‪ (VAR: Vector Autoregression‬ﺒﺎﻟﺸﻜل‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﺯل ﻜﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪Y = A1 Yt−1 + A 2 Yt −2 + ............. + A n Yt −n + U t‬‬
‫ﺤﻴﺙ‪:‬‬
‫‪t‬‬
‫‪Yt = [ NT‬‬ ‫‪ET‬‬ ‫‪IT‬‬ ‫‪INF‬‬ ‫‪RER ] /‬‬
‫‪ :NT‬ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺡ‪.‬‬
‫‪ :ET‬ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ :IT‬ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‪.‬‬
‫‪ :INF‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺩﺍﺨل ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‪.‬‬
‫‪ :RER‬ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻟﻠﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﻫﺎﻨﻡ ﺭﺠﺏ ﺁل ﺩﺭﻭﻴﺵ ﻭﺃﺤﻤﺩ ﺇﺒﺭﺍﻫﻴﻡ ﻤﻼﻭﻱ‬
‫)ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ‪ X‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‪ Y‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬
‫‪ X‬ﻴﻤﻠﻙ ﻁﺎﻗﺔ ﺘﻨﺒﺅﻴﺔ ﺇﻀﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‪ Y‬ﻋﻨﺩ ﺇﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ‪ X‬ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ ﻟﻘﻴﻡ ‪ Y‬ﻨﻔﺴﻪ(‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ ﻴﺘﻡ ﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺠﺭﻴﻨﺠﺭ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ )‪.(Granger - Causality Test‬‬
‫ﻭﻓﻲ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪Yt = [ NT‬‬ ‫‪ET‬‬ ‫‪IT‬‬ ‫‪INF‬‬ ‫‪RER ] /‬‬
‫ﻟﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺡ‪ ،‬ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‪ ،‬ﺴﻌﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻟﻠﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ‪،‬‬
‫ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻴﺴﺒﺏ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪p‬‬ ‫‪p‬‬ ‫‪p‬‬
‫‪ITt = ∑ αi IT t−i, j + ∑ βi NTt−i, j + ∑ βi ETt−i, j + ∑ βi RERt−i, j + ∑ βi INFt−i, j + U t‬‬
‫‪i=1‬‬ ‫‪i=1‬‬ ‫‪i=1‬‬
‫‪H‬‬ ‫‪o‬‬
‫‪: β 1 = β 2 = β 3 = ........‬‬ ‫‪= βP = 0‬‬
‫‪H 1 : β 1 ≠ 0 , β 2 ≠ 0 ,......... , β P ≠ 0‬‬
‫)‪ (Iterations‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺠﻌﻠﻪ ﺒﺤﺎﺠﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻜﺎﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻴﻭﻤﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻷﺴﺒﻭﻋﻴﺔ ﺃﻭﺍﻟﺸﻬﺭﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﺫﻟﻙ ﺘﻡ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅ ﺯﻤﻨﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ =‪،2‬‬
‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﺍﻨﺴﺠﺎﻤﹰﺎ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺍﺨﺘﺎﺭﺕ‬
‫ﻋﺩﺩ ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅ ﺯﻤﻨﻲ ﻤﻘﺎﺭﺒﹰﺎ ﻟﻬﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ؛ ﻓﻌﻠﻰ ﺴﺒﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎل‬
‫ﺍﺨﺘﺎﺭ ﺩﻭﺭﺒﺭﻱ )‪ (Durbarry ،2002‬ﻋﺩﺩ ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅ ﺯﻤﻨﻲ‬
‫ﻴﺴﺎﻭﻱ )‪.(2‬‬
‫ﺨﺎﻤﺴﺎ( ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻟﺭﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻔﻌل ‪(Impulse Response‬‬
‫)‪Function‬‬
‫ﺘﻌﻤل ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﺘﺒﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ ﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺼﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻔﺎﺠﺌﺔ )‪ (Shocks‬ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺘﻌﺭﺽ ﻟﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻀﻤﻨﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻌﻜﺱ ﻜﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﺍﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ‬
‫ﻜل ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻷﻱ ﻫﺯﺓ ﺃﻭ ﺼﺩﻤﺔ ﻤﻔﺎﺠﺌﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺃﻱ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻤﻊ ﻤﺭﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ‪ .‬ﻭﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺠﺩﺭ ﺫﻜﺭﻩ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﻼ ﻤﻥ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻭﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻟﺭﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻔﻌل‬ ‫ﻜﹰ‬
‫ﻟﻬﻤﺎ ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ‪.‬‬
‫ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ‬
‫ﻋﻨﺩ ﺇﺠﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺨﻤﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﺘﻡ ﺃﺨﺫ‬
‫ﻟﻭﻏﺎﺭﻴﺘﻤﺎﺕ ﺃﺭﺒﻌﺔ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﻫﻲ‪) :‬ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺡ‪ ،‬ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ‬
‫‪- 472 -‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺜﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ‪...‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﻨﻁﻭﻱ ﺇﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ‪ Johansen-Juselius‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬
‫‪Vector Autoregressive model‬‬ ‫ﻤﺘﺠﻪ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ‬
‫‪Maximum‬‬ ‫)‪ ،(VAR‬ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻹﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻅﻤﻰ‬
‫‪ ،Likelihood Function‬ﻭﻴﻔﺘﺭﺽ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ )‪Johansen-(J–J‬‬
‫‪ Juselius‬ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ‪ P‬ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺘﺠﻪ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺠﺔ ‪ K‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪Xt = µ + π1 Xt-1 + ……….. + πk Xt-k + et‬‬
‫ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ‪ µ :‬ﺘﻤﺜل ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺀ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺒﺕ‪ π ،‬ﺘﻤﺜل ﻤﺼﻔﻭﻓﺔ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺠﺔ ‪ et ،P‬ﻴﻤﺜل ﻤﺘﺠﻪ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺄ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻭﺍﺌﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﺜﺎﻟﺜﺎ( ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ )‪(The Causality Test‬‬
‫ﺘﻌﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﻴﻥ ‪ X‬ﻭ‪ Y‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻨﻬﺎ‬
‫‪p‬‬ ‫‪p‬‬
‫‪i=1‬‬ ‫‪i=1‬‬
‫ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺭﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺩﻴﻠﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺭﻓﺽ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺭﻴﺔ ﻴﻌﻨﻲ ﺃﻥ ‪،NT ،ET‬‬
‫‪ RER ،INF‬ﻻ ﺘﺴﺒﺏ ‪ .IT‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺘﻡ ﺭﻓﻀﻬﺎ ﻓﻴﻜﻭﻥ ‪،NT ،ET‬‬
‫‪ RER ،INF‬ﺘﺴﺒﺏ ‪.IT‬‬
‫ﺭﺍﺒﻌﺎ( ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ )‪(Variance Decomposition‬‬
‫ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺭﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﻟﻜل ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬
‫ﻴﻌﺯﻯ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺨﻁﺄ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻨﻔﺴﻪ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﻌﺯﻯ‬
‫ﺇﻟﻰ ﺨﻁﺄ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻀﻴﺤﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻴﺘﻡ ﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻟﻜل ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‪ .‬ﻭﺘﺒﺭﺯ ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺇﻅﻬﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻷﺜﺭ ﺃﻱ ﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﻔﺎﺠﺊ )‪ (Shock‬ﻓﻲ ﻜل‬
‫ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‪ .‬ﻭﻟﺘﻼﻓﻲ ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺯﺍﻤﻥ ﻟﻸﺨﻁﺎﺀ‬
‫)‪ (Contemporaneous‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‪ ،‬ﻴﺘﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻠﺠﻭﺀ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ ﺘﺸﻭﻻﺴﻜﻲ )‪(Cholaski Decomposition‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﺘﺄﺜﺭ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﺒﺘﺭﺘﻴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺩ‬
‫ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭﻩ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﺘﻼﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺴﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻜﺩ ﻤﻥ ﻤﺼﺩﺍﻗﻴﺔ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‬
‫ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﺘﻐﻴﻴﺭ ﺘﺭﺘﻴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ )‪.(Sims, 1981‬‬
‫ﻭﺒﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺃﻜﺎﻴﻙ‪ -‬ﺴﺸﻴﻭﺍﺭﺘﺯ ﻻ ﻴﻨﺠﺢ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎﻟﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺴﻨﻭﻴﺔ ﻜﻤﺎ ﺘﺸﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﻟﻘﻠﺔ ﺩﺭﺠﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺭﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻷﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻴﻌﻤل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﻭﻟﻴﺩ ﺘﻜﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ‬
 ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻭﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﹼﺩ ‪ ،37‬ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ ‪2010 ،2‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﻘﺔ( ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺃﻜﺒﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ )ﺒﺎﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﻘﺔ( ﺃﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‪ ،‬ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻟﻠﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺃﻥ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ( ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﺒﻬﺩﻑ ﻜﺒﺢ ﻫﺫﻩ‬
‫⎪‪ET ⇒⎪-3.6752⎪ > ⎪-2.670023‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﺘﻡ ﺃﺨﺫ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﻜﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﻋﺎﺩﻴﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻷﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻡ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﻟﺒﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺼﻔﺭﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺘﺨﻠﻕ ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺭﻴﺎﻀﻴﺔ ﻋﻨﺩ‬
‫ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻴﻌﻨﻲ ﺃﻥ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭ ﺒﺎﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﺃﺨﺫ ﺍﻟﻠﻭﻏﺎﺭﻴﺘﻡ ﻟﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﺃﻥ ﻤﺜل ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻷﺴﻠﻭﺏ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺇﺘﺒﺎﻋﻪ ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ﻴﺘﻡ‬
‫ﻤﻊ ﻤﺭﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ‪ .‬ﻭﻜﺫﻟﻙ ﺍﻟﺤﺎل ﺒﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻤل ﻤﻊ ﻗﻴﻡ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺒﻤﻘﺎﺩﻴﺭ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻭﻗﻴﻡ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺒﻤﻘﺎﺩﻴﺭ‬
‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻓﻘﺩ ﺘﺒﻴﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺠﻤﻴﻌﻬﺎ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ ﺒﺎﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺼﻐﻴﺭﺓ ﺒﻬﺩﻑ ﻜﺒﺢ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻤﺎ ﺒﺄﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ‬
‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺩﻴﻜﻲ‪-‬ﻓﻭﻟﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺴﻭﺒﺔ )ﺒﺎﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﻘﺔ( ﺃﻜﺒﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻤﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ )‪.(Abdul-Hadi, 1999‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ )ﺒﺎﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﻘﺔ( ﻓﻲ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺃﻭ ﹰﻻ( ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺠﺫﺭ ﺍﻟﻭﺤﺩﺓ ﻟﻼﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭﻴﺔ‬
‫‪:Johansen‬‬ ‫ﺜﺎﻨﻴ ﹰﺎ( ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺠﻭﻫﺎﻨﺴﻥ ﻟﻠﺘﻜﺎﻤل ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺘﺭﻙ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺃﺜﺭ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺡ‪ ،‬ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‪ ،‬ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‬
‫‪Cointegration Test‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻟﻠﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ‪ ،‬ﻤﻌﺩل‬
‫ﻋﻨﺩ ﺇﺠﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻤل ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻜﻤﺎ ﻫﻲ ﻤﺒﻴﻨﺔ ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻻ ﻤﻥ ﺇﺠﺭﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﻻﺒﺩ ﺃﻭ ﹰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ ،(3‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﺩل ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻤل ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺘﺭﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺩﻴﻜﻲ‪-‬ﻓﻭﻟﺭ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺠل ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻷﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺴﻊ )‪ (ADF‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﻫﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪.(2‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺒﻴﻨﺕ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻤﺘﺠﻬﻴﻥ ﺃﻭ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﻟﻠﺘﻜﺎﻤل ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺘﺭﻙ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻼ(‬
‫ﻴﺘﻀﺢ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺃﺨﺫ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ )ﻤﺜ ﹰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺩﻴﻜﻲ‪-‬ﻓﻭﻟﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺴﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺴﻭﺒﺔ )ﺒﺎﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪(2‬‬
‫ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺩﻴﻜﻲ‪ -‬ﻓﻭﻟﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺴﻊ ﻟﻼﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ )‪(ADF‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﺭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ‪%1‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺴﻭﺒﺔ‬
‫ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ‬ ‫‪-2.670023‬‬ ‫‪-3.6752‬‬ ‫)‪Log(ET‬‬
‫ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ‬ ‫‪-2.001946‬‬ ‫‪-2.6453‬‬ ‫‪INF‬‬
‫ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ‬ ‫‪-0.956138‬‬ ‫‪-3.6752‬‬ ‫)‪Log(RER‬‬
‫ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ‬ ‫‪-0.749674‬‬ ‫‪-3.6752‬‬ ‫)‪Log(NT‬‬
‫ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ‬ ‫‪-1.209110‬‬ ‫‪-3.6752‬‬ ‫)‪Log(IT‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪(3‬‬

‫ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺠﻭﻫﺎﻨﺴﻥ ﻟﻠﺘﻜﺎﻤل ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺘﺭﻙ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺠﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺭﺠﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺴﻭﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻡ ﺃﻴﺠﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺭﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ‪%1‬‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ‪%5‬‬ ‫‪Statistic Trace‬‬ ‫‪Eigenvalue‬‬
‫ﻻ ﻴﻭﺠﺩ ﺘﻜﺎﻤل ﻤﺸﺘﺭﻙ)**(‬ ‫‪76.07‬‬ ‫‪68.52‬‬ ‫‪82.50601‬‬ ‫‪0.649976‬‬
‫ﻴﻭﺠﺩ ﻤﺘﺠﻪ ﻭﺍﺤﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻜﺜﺭ)*(‬ ‫‪54.46‬‬ ‫‪47.21‬‬ ‫‪52.06315‬‬ ‫‪0.558098‬‬
‫ﻴﻭﺠﺩ ﻤﺘﺠﻬﺎﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻜﺜﺭ‬ ‫‪35.65‬‬ ‫‪29.68‬‬ ‫‪28.37983‬‬ ‫‪0.467353‬‬
‫ﻴﻭﺠﺩ ﺜﻼﺙ ﻤﺘﺠﻬﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻜﺜﺭ‬ ‫‪20.04‬‬ ‫‪15.41‬‬ ‫‪10.11285‬‬ ‫‪0.262898‬‬
‫ﻴﻭﺠﺩ ﺃﺭﺒﻊ ﻤﺘﺠﻬﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻜﺜﺭ‬ ‫‪6.65‬‬ ‫‪3.76‬‬ ‫‪1.266994‬‬ ‫‪0.042749‬‬
‫ﻤﻠﺤﻭﻅﺔ‪ (**)* :‬ﺘﺸﻴﺭ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺭﻓﺽ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺭﻴﺔ ﻋﻨﺩ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺩﻻﻟﺔ ‪ %1‬ﻭ‪.%5‬‬

‫ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻟﻠﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﺜﺎﻟﺜ ﹰﺎ( ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺠﺭﻴﻨﺠﺭ ﻟﻠﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ )‪(Granger Causality Test‬‬
‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪ ،‬ﻷﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺃﺤﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﺃﻱ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﻟﺒﻘﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺘﺒﺎﺩﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‪ ،‬ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺡ‪ ،‬ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‪،‬‬

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‫ﻫﺎﻨﻡ ﺭﺠﺏ ﺁل ﺩﺭﻭﻴﺵ ﻭﺃﺤﻤﺩ ﺇﺒﺭﺍﻫﻴﻡ ﻤﻼﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺜﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ‪...‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺴﺎﻭﻱ ‪ .0.18533‬ﻭﺒﻬﺫﺍ ﻓﺈﻨﻪ ﺘﻭﺠﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﻜل ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ ﺘﺒﺎﺩﻟﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﻭﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺡ‪ .‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻵﺨﺭ‪ .‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻻ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺡ ﻭﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﻓﻘﺩ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ‪F‬‬ ‫ﺒﻴﻨﻬﻤﺎ‪ .‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﻡ ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺠﺎﻨﺒﻴﻥ ﻫﻤﺎ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺴﻭﺒﺔ ﺘﺴﺎﻭﻱ ‪ ،1.44575‬ﺫﻟﻙ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺃﻜﺒﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ‪ F‬ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺒﻠﻐﺕ ‪ ،0.25536‬ﻭﺒﺫﻟﻙ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﻭﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺡ ﻫﻲ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺯﻤﻨﻲ )‪ ،(2‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ ﻤﻥ ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻜﺎﻓﻴﹰﺎ‬
‫ﻼ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﻭﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺡ ﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﺒﺎﺩﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﻜ ﹰ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻼﻓﻲ ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺭﺍﺒﻁ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺴﻠﺴل ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﻴﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻵﺨﺭ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺤﺼﺭ ﺒﻴﻥ ‪ 1.5‬ﻭ‪ 2.5‬ﻹﺤﺼﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﺭﺒﻭﻥ‪-‬ﻭﺍﺘﺴﻭﻥ )‪.(D.W‬‬
‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﻨﻅﺭ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺒﺎﻗﻲ ﻗﻴﻡ ‪ F‬ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺴﻭﺒﺔ ﻭﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺘﻬﺎ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﻋﻨﺩ ﺇﺠﺭﺍﺀ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻜﻤﺎ ﻫﻲ ﻤﻭﻀﺤﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ ،(4‬ﻴﻼﺤﻅ ﺒﺄﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ .(4‬ﻭﻴﺘﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ‬
‫ﺘﺒﺎﺩﻟﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺫﻟﻙ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺠﻤﻴﻊ‬ ‫ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺡ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ‪F‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺒﻌﻀﻬﺎ ﺒﻌﻀﹰﺎ ﻭﻟﻬﺎ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺴﻭﺒﺔ )ﻋﻨﺩ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅ ﺯﻤﻥ ﻴﺴﺎﻭﻱ ‪ (2‬ﺘﺴﺎﻭﻱ‬
‫ﺘﻨﺒﺅﻴﺔ ﺇﻀﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺒﻌﻀﻬﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ ،1.80974‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺃﻜﺒﺭ ﻤﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ‪F‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪(4‬‬
‫ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺠﺭﻴﻨﺠﺭ ﻟﻠﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺴﻭﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺭﺍﺭ‬
‫)‪Log(IT)⇒log(NT‬‬ ‫‪0.18533‬‬ ‫‪1.80974‬‬ ‫ﻻ ﻨﺭﻓﺽ‬
‫)‪Log(NT)⇒log(IT‬‬ ‫‪0.25536‬‬ ‫‪1.44575‬‬ ‫ﻻ ﻨﺭﻓﺽ‬
‫)‪Log(IT)⇒log(ET‬‬ ‫‪0.02796‬‬ ‫‪4.16749‬‬ ‫ﻻ ﻨﺭﻓﺽ‬
‫)‪Log(ET)⇒log(IT‬‬ ‫‪0.35550‬‬ ‫‪1.08012‬‬ ‫ﻻ ﻨﺭﻓﺽ‬
‫)‪Log(IT)⇒log(RER‬‬ ‫‪0.21158‬‬ ‫‪1.65813‬‬ ‫ﻻ ﻨﺭﻓﺽ‬
‫)‪Log(RER)⇒log(IT‬‬ ‫‪0.48419‬‬ ‫‪0.74765‬‬ ‫ﻻ ﻨﺭﻓﺽ‬
‫‪Log(IT)⇒ INF‬‬ ‫‪0.14540‬‬ ‫‪2.09180‬‬ ‫ﻻ ﻨﺭﻓﺽ‬
‫‪INF⇒ Log IT‬‬ ‫‪0.09659‬‬ ‫‪2.58038‬‬ ‫ﻻ ﻨﺭﻓﺽ‬

‫ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‪ ،‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪ ،‬ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‬
‫ﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻀﺤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ .(5‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻅﻬﺭ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬
‫ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ (5‬ﺃﻨﻪ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﻜﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ )‪ (%80.96‬ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺄ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺒﺎﻴﻨﻪ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ ﻴﻌﺯﻯ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻨﻔﺴﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ )‪،%2.10‬‬
‫‪ (%2.23 ،%5.13 ،%9.55‬ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺄ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﻴﻌﺯﻯ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺡ‪ ،‬ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‪،‬‬
‫ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻟﻠﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﻟﻲ‪ .‬ﺇﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﻴﻌﻨﻲ ﺃﻨﻪ‬
‫ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ ﺘﺴﺘﻁﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‬
‫ﺘﻔﺴﻴﺭ ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ ‪ %80.96‬ﻤﻥ ﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺄ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‬
‫ﻨﻔﺴﻪ‪ ،‬ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﺘﻔﺴﺭ ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬
‫‪ %9.55‬ﻤﻥ ﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺄ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‪ ،‬ﻴﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺭﺍﺒﻌ ﹰﺎ( ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ‪:‬‬
‫ﻴﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺠل ﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ ﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﻟﻜل ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺌﺩ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺨﻁﺄ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻨﻔﺴﻪ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺌﺩ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺨﻁﺄ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺒﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ ﺒﺎﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﺘﻜﺎﻤﻠﺔ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺭﻴﺔ؛ ﺃﻱ )‪ ،I(0‬ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺭﻏﻡ ﻤﻥ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺠل ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﺸﺎﺭ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻤل ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺘﺭﻙ ﻓﺈﻨﻪ‬
‫ﻴﺠﺏ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺠﻪ ‪ VAR‬ﻭﻟﻴﺱ‬
‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺘﺼﺤﻴﺢ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺄ‪ ،‬ﺫﻟﻙ ﺃﻥ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺘﺼﺤﻴﺢ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺄ‬
‫ﻴﺘﻁﻠﺏ ﻀﻤﺎﻥ ﺘﻭﻓﺭ ﺸﺭﻁﻴﻥ ﻫﻤﺎ‪ :‬ﺍﻷﻭل ﻫﻭ ﺃﻥ ﺠﻤﻴﻊ‬
‫ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻟﻬﺎ ﻨﻔﺱ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺒﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ‬
‫ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺃﻜﺒﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺼﻔﺭ‪ ،‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻁ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ ﻓﻬﻭ ﻀﻤﺎﻥ‬
‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺘﻜﺎﻤل ﻤﺸﺘﺭﻙ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ )‪.(Haung, 1994‬‬
‫ﻭﻋﻨﺩ ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‪ :‬ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺡ‪،‬‬

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 ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻭﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﹼﺩ ‪ ،37‬ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ ‪2010 ،2‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪ ،‬ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﺼل ﺇﻟﻰ ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ )‪،%3.53‬‬ ‫ﻓﻲ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻟﻠﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬
‫‪ (%5.62 ،%5.27 ،%10.99‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﺜﻡ ﺘﺴﺘﻤﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻔﺴﺭ ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ ‪ %5.13‬ﻤﻥ ﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺄ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺒﺎﻟﺘﺫﺒﺫﺏ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﻴل ﻟﻠﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺼل ﺇﻟﻰ ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‪ ،‬ﺜﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻔﺴﺭ‬
‫)‪ (%10.20 ،%18.59 ،%17.02 ،%15.58‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ ‪ %2.23‬ﻤﻥ ﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺄ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﺨﻴﺭﺍ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺸﺭﺓ‪ .‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﻴﻼﺤﻅ ﺃﻴﻀﺎ ﺒﺄﻥ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻟﻠﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺘﺴﺘﻁﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺡ ﺘﻔﺴﻴﺭ ‪ %2.10‬ﻓﻘﻁ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ﻴﺤﺘل ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺘﺒﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ ﻤﻥ‬ ‫ﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺄ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‪ .‬ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﻴﻼﺤﻅ ﺍﺯﺩﻴﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬
‫ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻴﻠﻴﻪ ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻌﺯﻯ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺡ‪ ،‬ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‪ ،‬ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‪ ،‬ﺜﻡ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺡ ﻭﺃﺨﻴﺭﹰﺍ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻟﻠﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ‪ ،‬ﻤﻌﺩل‬
‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪(5‬‬
‫ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ )‪(IT‬‬
‫‪Period‬‬ ‫‪IT‬‬ ‫‪NT‬‬ ‫‪ET‬‬ ‫‪RER‬‬ ‫‪INF‬‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪100.0000‬‬ ‫‪0.000000‬‬ ‫‪0.000000‬‬ ‫‪0.000000‬‬ ‫‪0.000000‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪80.96694‬‬ ‫‪2.106947‬‬ ‫‪9.557527‬‬ ‫‪5.131191‬‬ ‫‪2.237390‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪74.57069‬‬ ‫‪3.532282‬‬ ‫‪10.99805‬‬ ‫‪5.275297‬‬ ‫‪5.623675‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪69.11086‬‬ ‫‪5.208100‬‬ ‫‪10.14523‬‬ ‫‪5.478576‬‬ ‫‪10.05724‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪65.34366‬‬ ‫‪6.641799‬‬ ‫‪9.691399‬‬ ‫‪6.104457‬‬ ‫‪12.21869‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪58.91705‬‬ ‫‪8.757815‬‬ ‫‪10.98778‬‬ ‫‪9.236529‬‬ ‫‪12.10082‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪51.99457‬‬ ‫‪10.82924‬‬ ‫‪13.10284‬‬ ‫‪12.59041‬‬ ‫‪11.48293‬‬
‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪46.85209‬‬ ‫‪12.54309‬‬ ‫‪14.49553‬‬ ‫‪15.10647‬‬ ‫‪11.00282‬‬
‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪43.26013‬‬ ‫‪13.75485‬‬ ‫‪15.44794‬‬ ‫‪16.91976‬‬ ‫‪10.61731‬‬
‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪40.60884‬‬ ‫‪14.68684‬‬ ‫‪16.30134‬‬ ‫‪18.07322‬‬ ‫‪10.32976‬‬
‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪38.58937‬‬ ‫‪15.58769‬‬ ‫‪17.02106‬‬ ‫‪18.59985‬‬ ‫‪10.20203‬‬

‫ﺍﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﻷﻱ ﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﻔﺎﺠﺊ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻱ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ (1‬ﻴﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﺭﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻔﻌل ﻟﻠﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‬
‫ﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﻔﺎﺠﺊ ﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭﻩ ﺍﻨﺤﺭﺍﻑ ﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻭﺍﺤﺩ ﻓﻲ ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺡ‪ ،‬ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‪ ،‬ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻟﻠﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪ .‬ﻭﻴﺘﻀﺢ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ (1‬ﺃﻥ ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﻟﻪ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺍﻴﺠﺎﺒﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﻭﻴﺴﺘﻤﺭ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻟﻤﺩﺓ ﺃﺭﺒﻊ ﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ‪ .‬ﺫﻟﻙ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺃﻱ ﺘﻐﻴ‪‬ﺭ ﻤﻔﺎﺠﺊ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭﻩ ﺍﻨﺤﺭﺍﻑ ﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ‬
‫ﻭﺍﺤﺩ ﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺍﻴﺠﺎﺒﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﺴﺘﻤﺭ ﻫﺫﺍ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻟﻤﺩﺓ ﺃﺭﺒﻊ ﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﺜﻡ ﻴﺒﺩﺃ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻀﺎﺅل‪ .‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﻋﻥ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬
‫ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺡ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﻩ ﺍﻹﻴﺠﺎﺒﻲ ﻴﺒﺩﺃ ﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ‪ ،‬ﺫﻟﻙ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺃﻱ ﺘﻐﻴ‪‬ﺭ ﻤﻔﺎﺠﺊ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺡ ﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭﻩ ﺍﻨﺤﺭﺍﻑ ﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ‬
‫ﻭﺍﺤﺩ ﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﺍﻴﺠﺎﺒﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻜﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻻ‬
‫ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﺒل ﻴﻅﻬﺭ ﺒﻌﺩ ﻤﺭﻭﺭ ﺜﻼﺙ ﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ‪ .‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﻋﻥ‬
‫ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻟﻠﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻋﻪ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻴﺒﻴ‪‬ﻥ ﺒﻭﻀﻭﺡ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻺﻨﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻔﺴﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻷﻜﺒﺭ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻤﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﻤﺘﺩ ﻟﻤﺩﺓ ﺴﻨﺘﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﺘﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻷﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪ ،‬ﺜﻡ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻟﻠﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ‬
‫ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ‪ ،‬ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻷﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻟﻌﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺡ ﻫﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻗل ﻓﻲ ﺘﻔﺴﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‪ .‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﻤﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻁﻭﻴل ﻓﺎﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺘﺨﻀﻊ ﻟﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﻴﺭﺍﺕ‪،‬‬
‫ﺤﻴﺙ ﻴﺤﺘل ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻟﻠﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺘﺒﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ‪ ،‬ﺘﻠﻴﻪ ﺍﻷﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻟﻺﻨﻔﺎﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‪ ،‬ﺜﻡ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺡ‪ ،‬ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﺘﺼﺒﺢ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻷﻗل ﻓﻲ ﺘﻔﺴﻴﺭ ﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻗﺩ ﻴﺘﻔﻕ ﻤﻊ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺡ ﻴﺘﻜﻴ‪‬ﻔﻭﻥ ﻤﻊ ﻤﺭﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ‪.‬‬
‫ﺨﺎﻤﺴ ﹰﺎ( ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻟﺭﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻔﻌل‬
‫ﻴﻌﻨﻰ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺒﺘﺘﺒﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻔﺎﺠﺌﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺘﻌﺭﺽ ﻟﻬﺎ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻭﻜﻴﻔﻴﺔ‬

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‫ﻫﺎﻨﻡ ﺭﺠﺏ ﺁل ﺩﺭﻭﻴﺵ ﻭﺃﺤﻤﺩ ﺇﺒﺭﺍﻫﻴﻡ ﻤﻼﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺜﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ‪...‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﻟﻤﺩﺓ ﺴﻨﺘﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﺜﻡ ﻴﺼﺒﺢ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺫﻱ ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﻋﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﻩ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﺴﺎﻟﺏ ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻴﺘﻔﻕ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻷﻥ ﺃﻱ ﺘﻐﻴ‪‬ﺭ ﻤﻔﺎﺠﺊ ﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭﻩ ﺍﻨﺤﺭﺍﻑ ﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻭﺍﺤﺩ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﺩل‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﺴﻠﺒﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﺴﺘﻤﺭ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻷﺜﺭ‬
‫ﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﺴﺘﻤﺭ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻷﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺴﻨﺘﻴﻥ ﺜﻡ ﻴﺘﻼﺸﻰ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺒﻌﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ ﻭﺭﺒﻤﺎ ﻴﻌﻭﺩ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻼﺸﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺘﻜﻴﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺡ ﻤﻊ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﺒﻤﺭﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺘﺒﻴ‪‬ﻥ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻟﺭﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻔﻌل ﺒﺄﻥ ﺃﻱ ﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﻔﺎﺠﺊ ﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻨﺤﺭﺍﻑ ﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻭﺍﺤﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻟﻠﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺴﻠﺒﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل‬

‫‪Response to Cholesky One S.D. Innovations ± 2 S.E.‬‬

‫)‪Response of LOG(IT) to LOG(ET‬‬ ‫)‪Response of LOG(IT) to LOG(NT‬‬

‫‪.2‬‬ ‫‪.2‬‬

‫‪.1‬‬ ‫‪.1‬‬

‫‪.0‬‬ ‫‪.0‬‬

‫‪-.1‬‬ ‫‪-.1‬‬

‫‪-.2‬‬ ‫‪-.2‬‬

‫‪-.3‬‬ ‫‪-.3‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬

‫)‪Response of LOG(IT) to LOG(RER‬‬ ‫‪Response of LOG(IT) to INF‬‬

‫‪.2‬‬ ‫‪.2‬‬

‫‪.1‬‬ ‫‪.1‬‬

‫‪.0‬‬ ‫‪.0‬‬

‫‪-.1‬‬ ‫‪-.1‬‬

‫‪-.2‬‬ ‫‪-.2‬‬

‫‪-.3‬‬ ‫‪-.3‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪(1‬‬

‫ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻟﺭﺩﺓ ﻓﻌل ﻟﻠﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‬

‫ﻭﺘﺨﺘﻠﻑ ﺍﻷﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ )ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻭﺼﻴﺎﺕ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‪ ،‬ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺡ‪ ،‬ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻟﻠﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ‬
‫ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ( ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﻤﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻴﺭ ﻋﻨﻪ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﻤﺩ ﺍﻟﻁﻭﻴل‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﺸﻴﺭ‬
‫ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﻤﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻴﺭ‪ ،‬ﻴﻤﺘﻠﻙ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﺍﻷﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﺒﺭﻯ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‪ ،‬ﻴﻠﻴﻪ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪ ،‬ﺜﻡ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻟﻠﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﺨﻴﺭﺍ‬
‫ﻴﻤﺘﻠﻙ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺡ ﺍﻷﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻗل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‪ .‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﻤﺩ ﺍﻟﻁﻭﻴل‪ ،‬ﻓﻴﺤﺩﺙ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﻴﺭ‬
‫ﻫﺩﻓﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻰ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺼﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺜﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ )‪.(2005-1975‬‬
‫ﻭﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﻫﺩﻑ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺘﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺠﻪ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺨﻴﺼﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻤﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺒﻴﻨﺕ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺍﻴﺠﺎﺒﻲ ﻟﻺﻨﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‬
‫ﻭﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‪ ،‬ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﻜﺎﻥ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ‬
‫ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻟﻠﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ﻭﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺴﻠﺒﻴﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‪.‬‬

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‫ ﻤﻥ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻻﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﺒﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬،‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺘﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻴﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ ﻤﻌﺎ‬
‫ ﻭﺍﻟﺤﻔﺎﻅ ﻋﻠﻰ‬،‫ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ‬
‫ ﻭﺘﺨﻔﻴﺽ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ‬،‫ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﻤﺘﻭﺍﻀﻌﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻀﺨﻡ‬
‫ ﻭﺍﺘﺨﺎﺫ ﺍﻹﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ‬،‫ﻟﻠﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻼﺌﻤﺔ )ﻤﺜل ﺍﻟﺩﻋﺎﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻭﻴﻘﻴﺔ( ﺒﻬﺩﻑ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﻁﺎﺏ ﺃﻜﺒﺭ ﻋﺩﺩ‬
‫ ﻜل ﺫﻟﻙ ﺒﻬﺩﻑ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‬،‫ﻤﻤﻜﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺡ‬
.‫ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ‬
Nottingham, UK.
Durbarry, R. 2000. Tourism Expenditure in the UK: Analysis of
Competitiveness using a Gravity–Based Model. Discussion
Paper Series 2000/1, Christel DeHaan Tourism and Travel
Reaserch Institute, University of Nottingham, UK.
Haung, Guobo. 1994. Money Demand in China in the Reform
Period: An Error Correction Model, Applied Economics,
26: 713-719.
Kara, Ahmet and Mehves Tarim and Ekrem, Tatoglu. 2003. The
Economic, Social, and Environmental Determinants of
Tourism Revenue in Turkey: Some Policy Implications,
Journal of Economic and Social Research, 5(2: 61-72.
International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics
Yearbook, XLVIII.
International Monetary Fund. 2006. International Financial
Statistics.
Mankiw, N. Gregory. 1998. Principles of Macroeconomics,
Harcourt College Publishers, USA.
Muchapondwa, Edwin and Obert, Pimhidzai. 2008. Modelling
International Tourism Demand for Zimbabwe, University of
Cape Town, Zimbabwe, Working Paper No. 107, 24.
Pindyck, Robert S. and Rubinfeld, Daniel. 1991. Econometric
Models and Economic Forecasts, McGraw-Hill Inc., USA.
Salleh, Norlida, Law Siong-Hook, Sridar Ramachandran, and
Ahmad Shuib. 2008. Asian Tourism Demand for Malaysia:
A Bound Test Approach, Contemporary Management
Research, 4(4): 351-368.
Sims, Christopher A. 1981. Comparison of Interwar and
Postwar Business Cycles: Monetarism Reconsidered,
American Economic Review, 70, May.
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2010 ،2 ‫ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ‬،37 ‫ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﹼﺩ‬،‫ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻭﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻴﺔ‬،‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ‬
‫ ﺤﻴﺙ ﻴﻤﺘﻠﻙ‬،‫ﻓﻲ ﺘﺭﺘﻴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻷﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻟﻠﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬
،‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ﺍﻷﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﺒﺭﻯ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‬
‫ ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ‬،‫ ﺜﻡ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺡ‬،‫ﻴﻠﻴﻪ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‬
‫ﺘﺼﺒﺢ ﺍﻷﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻟﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻷﻗل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ‬
.‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‬
‫ﻭﻟﺫﻟﻙ ﺘﻭﺼﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺒﻀﺭﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺭﻜﻴﺯ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠـﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ‬
‫ ﻤﺴﺘﺨﻠﺹ‬،2006 ،‫ ﻤﺤﻤﺩ ﺤﺴﻥ ﻋﻠﻲ ﺍﻟﺯﻭﻴﻥ‬،‫ ﻜﺎﻅﻡ ﺃﺤﻤﺩ‬،‫ﺍﻟﺒﻁﺎﻁ‬
،‫ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ ﻜﺭﺒﻼﺀ‬:‫ﺒﺤﺙ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ ﻗﺩﻡ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺘﻤﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ ﺒﻌﻨﻭﺍﻥ )ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ‬
،(‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺍﻕ ﺘﺭﺍﺙ ﻭﺤﻀﺎﺭﺓ ﻭﺁﻓﺎﻕ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒل ﻤﺸﺭﻕ‬
-24 ‫ ﻴﻭﻤﻲ‬،‫ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺍﻕ‬،‫ ﻜﺭﺒﻼﺀ‬،‫ﺃﻗﺎﻤﺘﻪ ﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ ﺃﻫل ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺕ‬
.2006/5/25
،‫ ﻋﻤﺎﻥ‬،‫ ﺃﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‬،‫ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺭﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬،‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ‬
.‫ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‬
‫ ﺭﺴﺎﻟﺔ‬،‫ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻭﻴﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‬،1990 ،‫ ﻓﻴﺼل‬،‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺝ ﺫﻴﺏ‬
.‫ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‬،‫ ﻋﻤﺎﻥ‬،‫ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻴﺔ‬،‫ﻤﺎﺠﺴﺘﻴﺭ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﻨﺸﻭﺭﺓ‬
.(2006) ‫ﺩﺍﺌﺭﺓ ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻴﺔ‬
‫ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬،2005 ،‫ ﻋﻠﻲ‬،‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺎﺭﻭﺓ‬
‫ ﺭﺴﺎﻟﺔ‬،2003-1975 ‫ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ‬،‫ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ‬
.‫ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‬،‫ ﺍﻟﻜﺭﻙ‬،‫ ﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ ﻤﺅﺘﺔ‬،‫ﻤﺎﺠﺴﺘﻴﺭ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﻨﺸﻭﺭﺓ‬
،‫ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﺒﺎﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‬،2006 ،‫ ﺨﺎﻟﺩ‬،‫ﺍﻟﻭﺤﻭﺵ‬
.‫ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‬،‫ ﺍﻟﻜﺭﻙ‬،‫ ﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ ﻤﺅﺘﺔ‬،‫ﺭﺴﺎﻟﺔ ﻤﺎﺠﺴﺘﻴﺭ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﻨﺸﻭﺭﺓ‬
.‫ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ ﻭﺍﻵﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻴﺔ‬
.2006 ،‫ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺭﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻱ‬،‫ﻫﻴﺌﺔ ﺘﻨﺸﻴﻁ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ‬
Abdul-Hadi, A. 1999. The Impact of Monetary Policy on
Consumer Durable Goods: Empirical Study by Using
Vector Autoregression (VAR) Models, Unpublished Ph.D
Dissertation, University of Missouri-Columbia, U.S.A.
Durbarry, R. 2002. Long Run Structural Tourism Demand
Modeling: An Application to France. Christel DeHaan
Tourism and Travel Research Institute, University of
‫ﻫﺎﻨﻡ ﺭﺠﺏ ﺁل ﺩﺭﻭﻴﺵ ﻭﺃﺤﻤﺩ ﺇﺒﺭﺍﻫﻴﻡ ﻤﻼﻭﻱ‬ ... ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺜﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﻲ‬

The Determinants of the Jordanian Tourism Income:

Econometric Study over the Period (1975-2005)

Hanem Ragab Al-Darwesh and Ahmad Ibrahim Malawi*

ABSTRACT
This study aims to investigate the determinants of the Jordanian tourism income over the period (1975-2005). A
reduced-form fifth-variable VAR model (the variables: number of tourists, tourism income, expenditures on
tourism, the real exchange rate, and inflation rate) is utilized. Dickey-Fuller tests showed that the variables are
stationary in all levels.
Various tests have been utilized such as: the Granger- Causality showing to determine the direction of causality
among the variables; a bidirectional causality relationship between tourism income and all the other variable;
Also, the Cointegration test showed the existence of a long-run relationship among the variables; Two major tools
were used for analysis: the Variance Decomposition and the impulse response function. It is found that the results
support the hypotheses of this study, in the sense that, the real exchange rate of the Jordanian Dinar against the
U.S Dollar and the inflation rate have negative impacts on tourism income, but the number of tourists and tourism
expenditure were found to have positive impacts on the tourism income.
Keywords: Jordanian Economy, Tourism Income, Vector Autoregression (VAR) Model.
-

_______________________________________________
* Al-Balqa Applied University, Aqaba College, Aqaba, Jordan; Department of Economics, Mu'tah University, Karak,
Jordan. Received on 13/4/2008 and Accepted for Publication on 3/9/2009.

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