Professional Documents
Culture Documents
1A. Critical Periods NC (TRAD NC)
1A. Critical Periods NC (TRAD NC)
Framework
[Value] I negate and value Social Justice, meaning government policy that treats people as they
deserve. Rights mean nothing if they can’t be used – without giving people a way of acting on
[Standard] Thus, the criterion is Promoting Access to Rights. Promoting Access to Rights
means giving all people the opportunity to experience the freedoms they’re entitled to. This
comes before other criteria, since it’s a mechanism for achieving them.
Thesis
[Thesis] My thesis is that we shouldn’t throw the baby out with the bathwater. Blanket
bans on U.S. military presence, abbreviated “USMP,” deny key forms of aid that promote
[DeBartolo] Throughout WANA, rights abuses are rampant: Syria has killed over 300,000
civilians in the last decade1, and Saudi Arabia exposes 1.5 million women to slave-like work
Policy Director David DeBartolo notes: DeBartolo, David. [Director of Dialogue Programs for the Project on Middle East
Democracy] “Perceptions of US Democracy Promotion Part One: Middle Eastern Views.” Project on Middle East Democracy, 2008.
https://pomed.org/wp-content/uploads/2008/05/POMED-Perceptions-Pt-1-Debartolo-May-2008.pdf CH
The notion that Middle Easterners do not value democracy is relatively common in the U.S. Some argue that, for religious, cultural or historical
reasons, Middle Easterners prefer dictators or monarchs to rule them rather than ruling themselves. Yet the World Values Survey shows
unequivocally that Middle Easterners desire democracy.1 While 52.4% of Americans think that a democratic
political system is a “very good” way to govern the U.S., over 80% of Moroccans believe that democracy is a very good way to
govern Morocco; 67.9% of Egyptians believe democracy is a very good way to govern Egypt; and 58.6% of Iraqis
believe democracy is a very good way to govern Iraq.2 See Figure 1. In no Middle Eastern country
surveyed did less than 49% of the people believe that democracy was ‘very good.’ These results are confirmed
in another question, in which Middle Easterners in almost every country feel strongly that “Democracy may have problems, but it’s better than
any other form of government.”3 While 41.6% of Americans strongly agree with this statement, that is dwarfed by the number of
Moroccans (77.6%), Egyptians(63.6%), and Iraqis (51.2%) who strongly agree that democracy is
better than any other form of government. See Figure 2. In every country, the number of people
who responded positively4 exceeded 69% including Jordan (89.9%), Turkey (88.3%), Saudi
Arabia (74.2%), and Iran (69.2%). In 2007, substantial majorities in Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon,
Morocco, and the Palestinian Territories said that democracy was not just a ‘Western way of doing things,’
1
https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2023/country-chapters/syria
2
https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2023/country-chapters/saudi-arabia#d91ede
and could work well in their countries.5 In the West Bank and Gaza, after the election of Hamas in January 2006, Figure
3b shows that respondents in 2007 were significantly more optimistic about whether democracy would work for them than they had been in 2003,
the last time this question was asked there. From 2006-2007, however, there was an erosion of optimism among people in Egypt, Turkey, Jordan,
[Kaplan] Yet when the U.S. refuses to intervene militarily, it becomes complicit in calamities
Attorney Naomi Kaplan notes: Kaplan, Naomi. [J.D., Boston College Law School; Former Litigation Associate with Manatt,
Phelps & Phillips; previously served in Benin, West Africa with the Peace Corps] “A Failure of Perspective: Moral Assumptions and Genocide.”
Boston College Third World Law Journal, Vol. 23, Issue 2, May 1, 2003. https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/71463217.pdf CH
INTRODUCTION Samantha Power's book, "A Problem from Hell": America and the Age of Genocide, examines the consistent non-response of
American leaders to genocide throughout the twentieth century.1 Her book details the failed efforts of lobbyists and legislators to enact laws and
mobilize reaction in order to prevent genocide from commencing or to stop genocide once it has begun.2 Power, through her meticulous research,
clearly demonstrates that American politicians have been aware of all of the major genocides of this
century as they were taking place and details the excuses those in power have used time and again to justify their
inertia.3 Although former presidents have repeatedly pro claimed "never again" when remembering the Holocaust, Power comes to the
troubling conclusion that "never again" truly means, "Never again [will] Germans kill Jews in Europe in the 1940's."4 Subsequent to the
Holocaust, genocides in Cambodia, Iraq, Bosnia, and Rwanda demonstrate that genocide remains a tool of terror long after World War IJ.5
Perhaps even more troubling, under the current international legal system, nothing affirmatively prevents genocide.6 For example, when the
Khmer Rouge (KR) entered Cambodia's capital city in April of 1975 and began demanding that citizens leave Phnom Penh immediately,7 what
followed was a campaign of genocide waged for fifteen years with a brief period of Vietnamese intervention.s American President Jimmy Carter
actually assisted the murderous Khmer Rouge regime by evicting the Vietnamese and reinstating Khmer Rouge control of Cambodia.9 Similarly,
in 1980, American President Ronald Reagan branded Saddam Hussein's chemical weapons attacks
against his own people, the Kurds, an “internal affair.” l0 As such, the United States did nothing to thwart Hussein's
efforts.ll When Slobodan Milosevic began "ethnic cleansing" in Bosnia, he knew that the international community was more concerned with
rhetoric than action.12 Although the UN pointed fingers at the main aggressors, imposed economic sanctions, deployed peacekeepers, and helped
deliver humanitarian aid, the U.S. and its allies did not intervene with armed forces to stop genocide until it was too late.13 When the Hutu power
majority seized control of Rwanda in early April of 1994 and began using the government's radio station to perpetuate the murder of 800,000
Tutsis in 100 days, the international community labeled the problem "tribal hostility" and withdrew UN troops from the State. 14 Those
who wish to perpetrate genocide have needed only to look at recent history to realize that
nothing will be done to stop them. IS Power asserts that American nonintervention has its roots in a fundamental failure of
imagination-that because genocide is by nature unfathomable, the general public, presidents, and policy makers alike have chosen to
look the other way instead of wrapping their minds around, and acting upon, the horrific.16 She also concludes that
American nonintervention in the face of genocide has actually been a successful policy of avoiding conflicts that do not clearly implicate
American interests.1' Although there is a common misconception that the United States did not know about genocides as they were unfurling,
Power's painstaking research proves that American presidents have been acutely aware of what was taking place; they simply lacked the will to
do anything about it.t8 Because genocide does not clearly impact American profit or pleasure, those in power have deliberately obscured the truth
of shocking events in order to avoid "do[ing] something" about genocide.t9 Inspired but not convinced by Powers' analysis, this Book Review
argues that the roots of nonintervention lie, not in a failure of imagination, but in the failure of our legal system's moral perspective to address
She adds: Kaplan, Naomi. [J.D., Boston College Law School; Former Litigation Associate with Manatt, Phelps & Phillips; previously
served in Benin, West Africa with the Peace Corps] “A Failure of Perspective: Moral Assumptions and Genocide.” Boston College Third World
Law Journal, Vol. 23, Issue 2, May 1, 2003. https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/71463217.pdf CH
Those in power who could have chosen to act in the spirit of the Genocide Convention relied instead upon the ethic of justice to inform their
approach to the problem. Caspar Weinberger and Colin Powell, for example, drafted a strict list of requirements that must be fulfilled before
giving authorization for the United States to intervene militarily.97 Their list demanded that armed intervention: (1) be used only to protect the
vital interests of the United States or its allies; (2) be carried out wholeheartedly, with the clear intention of winning; (3) be in pursuit of clearly
defined political and military objectives; (4) be accompanied by widespread public and congressional support; and (5) be waged only as a last
resort.98 Moreover, Colin Powell restricted this list further by adding the requirement that the use of force be "decisive" and be carried out with a
"clear exit strategy."99 Such a hierarchical ordering of values that privileges a State's "personal" objectives reflects the values of an ethic of
justice, in which personal rights trump the needs of another. IOO The conservative nature of this list, bent on making military
intervention a “last resort,” clearly restricts affirmative action in response to genocide or other
its inhabitants, the list drafted by Weinberger and Powell would approve of intervention only in the most limited of
circumstances in which the genocide impacts American profit or pleasure. I02 Such an outcome would be
unconscionable under an ethic of care.I03 II. SHIFTING PERSPECTIVES TO AN ETHIC OF CARE REFOCUSES THE "PROBLEM
FROM HELL" From an ethic of care perspective, there are numerous options available to prevent genocide. 104 Operating from an ethic of care
framework, the first question those in power must ask themselves is, "What have I done, directly or indirectly, to assist those who wish to
perpetrate genocide?"105 By first finding fault with the self, the questioner then takes on a high level of personal responsibility for genocidal
regimes as they unfold. l06 Taking personal responsibility means weaving the victims of genocide into a broadening web of care, in which a
person with the capacity to help sees the safeguarding of genocide victims as vital to her own sense ofwell-being.107 In this way, Power herself is
operating from an ethic of care perspective as she frames the argument of her book.
Thus, USMP is key to combating unjust rights denials.
C2: Humanitarian Aid
[C2] My second contention is that by providing humanitarian aid to civilians, USMP helps
[Cuny] USMP isn’t just about violence – it’s often key to get people their basic needs.
Humanitarian Frederick Cuny shows: Cuny, Frederick C. [American humanitarian whose work spanned disaster relief,
refugee emergency management, recovery from war and civil conflict as well as disaster and emergency preparedness, mitigation and
peacebuilding] “Use of the Military in Humanitarian Relief.” PBS.org, November 1989. http://tinyurl.com/2zs7u55t CH
INTRODUCTION Use of military forces for humanitarian purposes is a long-established tradition in all
corners of the world. In the public mind, there is an association between disaster relief and military involvement; indeed, there is often an
expectation that military units will assist the civilian population in the immediate aftermath of
wars and large-scale emergencies. The earliest recorded instances predate Alexander the Great. The assistance of armies to
the populations they had conquered was seen as a humane gesture to the vanquished -- and, not inconsequentially, a means of winning some
degree of loyalty to the new regime. Initially, humanitarian assistance was simply logistical. Soldiers provided an interim administration to ensure
that food and other vital supplies reached the population. There was an element of self-interest involved; if the people were producing food and
goods, the army's own logistics were simpler. By the Napoleonic period, this use of military forces had become so well-established that it was
seen as an adjunct to military science. The concept of establishing martial law over civil populations was developed as a means of structuring this
involvement in a post-conquest period. While most European armies of the period pursued only a limited security objective with martial law,
Napoleon and the French revolutionary armies saw it as a means of changing the social structure and bringing the benefits and new social order of
the French Revolution to the occupied territories. (That they failed is a lesson to be learned.) Post-World War II Europe witnessed what was
perhaps the most extensive use of the military in civil affairs. It is important to recognize the influence this had both on military doctrines of civil
involvement and on development of the international relief system and the approaches that relief agencies have used since that time. The task that
faced the Allies in the aftermath of the war was enormous. Virtually an entire continent had to be administered. Vestiges of the Nazi regime had
to be eradicated, whole populations had to be reunited or resettled and economies rejuvenated. Civil government and the rule of law had to be
reestablished and entire civil administrations restructured. The role of the military was expanded as never before. The public administrative
function was perceived as so important by the Allies that special attention was given to recruiting civil administrators, city planners, urban
development specialists, and hundreds of persons skilled in operating the systems of modern cities and their governments. From the beginning,
the objective was to establish martial law in the occupied territories, then quickly rebuild indigenous capacity to manage the cities, the provinces
and, ultimately, the national governments. In Germany, the process took longer but the goal was the same -- the military role was to shift from
To help answer these questions, we will look at reasons for military involvement in humanitarian operations, scenarios under which the military
may be deployed, and configurations or models of deployment. We will then examine several cases to identify some of the key lessons and
issues. To help understand the complexities of the relief environment and the constraints it presents, the nature of disasters in the Third World
will be explored. Finally, the dilemmas facing military commanders in humanitarian operations will be identified and discussed, and specific
recommendations for overcoming or avoiding the pitfalls will be presented. REASONS FOR INVOLVEMENT Civilian authorities turn
to the military for help in humanitarian operations for several reasons, among which the most obvious may be
their physical assets. The military is often regarded as a cornucopia of assistance. Among the most sought-after
assets are transport (land, sea and air); fuel; communications; commodities including food,
building supplies and medicines; tools and equipment; manpower; technical assistance
(especially logistics and communications) and facilities. Requests can run the gamut from the arcane, like
delousing equipment, to the mundane, like maps; from cheap items like soap, to highly-sophisticated items like bulldozers; from off-the-shelf
items like tents, to items that must be specially produced such as aerial photographs. Relief authorities know the military has
environment, it is not unreasonable for authorities to request them. Since many of the items are commonly
stockpiled and since civil disaster agencies have few stockpiles of their own, especially in the developing countries, demands can be quite
extensive. Of these assets, several are particularly attractive to emergency managers. For example, communication is critical in emergencies but
in most countries there are severe restrictions that limit civilian access to radio/telephonic systems. Thus, in the aftermath of a disaster, it is not
unreasonable for civilians to turn to the military for these services. The vast, disciplined and generally self-supporting manpower of the military is
[Fossum] And this is especially key in WANA – areas like Palestine that are currently being
Journalist Sam Fossum writes: Fossum, Sam. [White House producer, CNN] “US military to fly critical humanitarian aid to
Egypt to be brought into Gaza.” CNN.com, November 28, 2023. https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/28/politics/us-military-humanitarian-aid-gaza/
index.html CH
Washington CNN — The US military will fly three planeloads of crucial humanitarian aid to North
Sinai in Egypt to be brought into Gaza to aid civilians in the region, according to senior administration officials.
The aid that is being brought will include medical supplies, food and winter weather gear as Gaza enters its rainy
season – which can be wet, cold and even lead to flooding – with countless Palestinians displaced in temporary
shelters. The first of the three flights is set to arrive Tuesday. That flight delivered more than 54,000 pounds
of medical items and food aid to a logistics hub in Egypt to then be delivered to Gaza as part of efforts to provide humanitarian
aid to civilians in the enclave, according to national security adviser Jake Sullivan . The announcement comes amid a pause in the fighting
between Israel and Hamas that has been extended for an additional two days to potentially secure the release of further hostages and allow
increased humanitarian aid into Gaza. One official noted that this ongoing effort to help supply civilians is not linked to the ongoing hostage deal
and will continue when hostilities ultimately resume. The aid being flown in by the United States, which officials
called a “significant contribution,” will be distributed by the United Nations and replenish stocks of supplies,
which had been depleted as the pace of aid being brought into Gaza increased in recent days. The effort builds upon five previous
flights of aid being brought into the region on domestic planes, the officials added. Administration officials have also been having discussions
with the Israeli government over the last few weeks about not just providing basic humanitarian assistance to Gaza but moving to what they
described as phase two: Getting commercial goods into Gaza. One of the officials said that the current level of humanitarian
aid is not enough, and they need to reach a point where they can provide the sustained delivery of commercial goods in addition to
basic humanitarian aid. They added that everyone “from the president on down” understands that what is getting into Gaza is not enough for
normal life in the besieged enclave. During the ongoing humanitarian pause, roughly 800 trucks of aid have entered Gaza, according to the
officials. And over the past seven weeks, Biden and senior officials have been working “around the clock” on the humanitarian response, these
officials added. This includes working to expand humanitarian access, push for restoration of essential services and secure deconfliction
mechanisms for civilian sites and movement in Gaza. The need for increased assistance is a reality that UN officials have also been emphasizing.
United Nations Relief and Works Agency spokesperson Adnan Abu Hasna told CNN Sunday that the current levels of aid are “just a drop in the
ocean of humanitarian needs” and that they need more supplies to operate critical services and sectors like sewage, water or hospitals. Sullivan
this past weekend detailed some of the steps that are taken in order to bring aid into Gaza. It’s first brought through the Rafah crossing into Gaza
where it is inspected by the Israelis, following which the aid trucks go to United Nations depots and other humanitarian organizations that, he
said, are “vetted and trusted partners” after which it is distributed directly to civilians. “As humanitarian assistance has
ramped up, we’ve seen it work – that it’s actually getting to people and that it’s not being diverted
into the hands of Hamas. But that’s something that we have to continue to focus on an ongoing
basis,” Sullivan said. In a statement on Monday President Joe Biden highlighted efforts his administration has been taking to surge this
additional humanitarian aid into the Gaza strip. “The United States has led the humanitarian response into Gaza—building on years of work as
the largest funder of humanitarian assistance for the Palestinian people,” Biden said. “We are taking full advantage of the pause in fighting to
increase the amount of humanitarian aid moving into Gaza, and we will continue our efforts to build a future of peace and dignity for the
Palestinian people.”
Criterion – Recall the criterion to promote access to rights, which means giving people
1. This precludes other criteria because it’s a mechanism by which people can
2. This controls the link to all other criteria such as maximizing expected well-
wellbeing.
Off Isarel
First: Joint military exercises between the U.S. and IDF enhance defense coordination,
Second: U.S. military presence serves as a visible deterrent, reinforcing regional stability and
Israel's defense capabilities. This includes missile defense systems and intelligence-sharing
mechanisms.
Morphing of state power from formal to informal control means private military
contractors will fill-in post aff, causing more exploitation without oversight.
Godfrey et al 13 [Richard Godfrey is currently Lecturer in Strategy at the University of
Leicester School of Management, Jo Brewis Co-directs the PhD programme in the
School of Management and is also responsible for matters PGR in the wider College of
Social Science at the University of Leicester, Jo Grady is a Lecturer in HRM and
Industrial Relations at the University of Leicester School of Management, Chris Grocott
is a Visiting Lecturer in History at De Montfort University, and an Associate Tutor in
Management at the University of Leicester School of Management “The private military
industry and neoliberal imperialism: Mapping the terrain,” 1/3/13, Organization 2014,
Vol 21(1) 106–125, https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1350508412470731.
DOA: December 10, 2023 // ND // recut harris]
As Chwastiak (2007) and
And the absence of transparency around the activities of this industry may be an intentional move by certain powerful elites who stand to gain from the use of private contractors.
Avant, (2008) have observed, the use of the PSI in place of state military allows a
range of ‘wars by proxy’ so that military action can be undertaken without the
oversight—or even media reportage—that would accompany the deployment of
state troops. Ever since the Vietnam War, the US public in particular has been extremely cautious about the use of its military in high risk environments, as seen when a number of US Army Rangers were killed on peacekeeping duties in
Somalia in the early 1990s—events commemorated in the 2002 film Black Hawk Down. Their deaths, and the subsequent domestic backlash, resulted in 1994’s Presidential Decision Directive 25. This led to a decidedly ‘hands off’ role for the US military in any
That private
overseas conflicts not directly relevant to foreign policy objectives. But in the space between official policy like PDD 25 and the pursuit of neoliberal imperialism, the PSI arguably proves a most useful tool.
security ‘solutions’ can be amassed quickly and without the need for oversight and
approval (as we established earlier, in the US at least, if they cost less than $50
million) presumably makes them even more attractive. We would suggest that it is
partly public hesitance and the cost in political capital of sending troops to fight
which has led to an increasing reliance on the PSI by many nation states. The increasing use of the PSI, the
relative freedom under which the industry operates, and the seemingly lucrative returns that PSCs can reap have also led to greater networking and collaboration between political, military and corporate elites in the running of these organizations and the securing of
government contracts. For example, many PSCs, originally set up by ex-military personnel, have subsequently been acquired by influential multinational corporations. MPRI, as one instance, was set up by eight former military men, but is now owned by L3
Communications Holdings. L3 is a US-based company that offers a range of services including communications, satellite technologies and electronics systems to both military and civilian customers. Such large and powerful corporations have likewise been able to
appoint Boards of Directors that seem uniquely suited to securing government contracts. Tim Spicer’s Aegis counts amongst its former and current board members and advisers former SAS commander, Major General Jeremy Phipps; former Chief of the Defence Staff,
Field Marshal Lord Inge; former Defence Minister and Conservative MP Nicholas Soames; and Ronald Reagan’s National Security Adviser, Robert McFarlane. Other examples include former MP Malcolm Rifkind sitting on the board of ArmorGroup, and Judge
William Webster, one-time CIA Director, serving as a member of Diligence LLC’s advisory board. And, perhaps most famously, former US Vice President Dick Cheney was at one time the CEO of Halliburton, the corporation that owns KBR (Armstrong, 2008;
McCoy, 2010). Under Cheney’s leadership, KBR were able to secure more than $2.3 billion in government contracts, double what they earned in the previous five years. Moreover, they rose from 73 to 18 on the Pentagon’s list of preferred contractors (Johnson, 2004).
As another indication of the scale of these networks, in a single year, Gillian (2011) counts 250 ex-UK Ministry of Defence employees, including 20 generals, air marshals and admirals, joining PSC boards. The culmination of all of this, given the PSI’s immunity from,
for instance, Freedom of Information requests; the fact that there has been no concerted push at national or international level to instigate legislation or oversight procedures to control its activities; and the close networks of political, military and corporate elites which
control this vast industry leads us to concur with Hughes (2007) that we are witnessing the rise of a new security-industrial complex. As such, we conclude our observations on the implications of such arrangements by reminding ourselves of former US president
Dwight D. Eisenhower’s farewell address to the nation in 1961, in regard to the rise of a military-industrial complex: This conjunction of an immense military establishment and a large arms industry is new in the American experience … In the councils of government,
misplaced power exists and will persist … We must never let the weight of this
combination endanger our liberties or democratic processes . We should take nothing for granted. Only an alert and knowledgeable
citizenry can compel the proper meshing of the huge industrial and military machinery of defence with our peaceful methods and goals, so that security and liberty may prosper together. (Eisenhower, 1961: 3) As Fallows (2002: 46) establishes, most historians suggest
Eisenhower has been routinely misread as warning of ‘an increased risk of going to war’, whereas his real concerns were much more pragmatic and centred around the ways in which the military-industrial complex might coalesce to identify potential national security
threats and demand a budget for weapon manufacturing on that basis. However, if we take it in the sense in which it was generally used during Vietnam, as Fallows also points out, the term ‘military-industrial complex’ is ‘a shorthand reference to the interests that
presumably kept profiting from the war’ (Fallows, 2002). Conclusion Following Grey’s (2009) call for further research at the boundary between the disciplines of security studies and organization studies and by building on Banerjee’s (2008) analysis of the PSI as an
aspect of necrocapitalism, we have sought to introduce a new (/old) industry to the discipline of management and organization studies. We have located the industry in time and space and considered some of the main contours and characteristics of its current form. We
conceive of this as a first tentative step into the substantive study of the PSI within our home discipline. To summarize our key observations, the re-emergence of the market provision of military and security activity, combined with the specific way in which this activity
is currently undertaken, has led many in disciplines such as politics and international relations, law and legal studies, history, and military and peace studies to call for greater scrutiny of what appears to be an emerging security-industrial complex. As McCoy notes, the
Instead the rise of the PSI is more closely linked to changes in the state
the use of legitimate physical violence.
whereby the lines of responsibility for, and control over, domestic and
international security are beginning to blur. This is leading to ‘new security
structures and practices that are simultaneously public and private, global and
local. Within these assemblages, state power is certainly configured, but it is not
necessarily weakened’ (Abrahamsen and Wiliams, 2011:3). And this is not just the story of the re-emergence of PSI in the current period. Our discussion highlights the organizational and managerial reconfiguration of
consequence of neoliberal theory, also frees PSCs from the ethos of accountability
and proper administrative oversight which du Gay (2000) attributes to bureaucracy.
It allows states to wage wars by proxy, without the official oversight of either the
government, the legislature or the media . Without this ethos of bureaucracy, organizations in the PSI can focus solely on ‘getting the job done’, and not on ‘doing the right thing’.
It is the neoliberal enthusiasm for anti-intervention and deregulation that has pushed states towards privatizing war, and allowed the PSI to function as a tool of informal empire. Thus neoliberalism has provided a philosophical, political and economic justification for
events including the Arab Spring and the withdrawal of troops from Iraq and
possible future scenarios including increasing cuts to the size of state militaries in
the UK and the US—plus imminent withdrawal from Afghanistan—there is good
reason to believe that a reliance on private military forces will not recede any time
soon . Therefore, we need to ask further questions that address the changing relationship between public and private provision of military and security services, and how this will continue to reconfigure the control and use of legitimate physical violence.
GOES NUCLEAR QUICKER, SO ALL THEIR BIG STICK IMPACTS ARE TURNED
Cropsey et al: Cropsey, Seth. [Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute in Washington D.C.]. Gary Roughead. [Former United States Navy
Officer]. "A U.S. Withdrawal Will Cause a Power Struggle in the Middle East." Foreign Policy, December 17, 2019.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/12/17/us-withdrawal-power-struggle-middle-east-china-russia-iran // AG
Having obtained air and naval bases at Khmeimim and Tartus, both in Syria, Russia can once again turn its focus toward Europe. Nonstate forces
will continue to play a crucial role in the strategic balance. The Kurds are arguably the most relevant of these, because of their highly disruptive
presence in Turkish, Iraqi, Iranian, and Syrian national politics and, additionally, because their transnational character gives them the ability to
stoke interstate conflict. Iran’s significance will, as a result of its economic woes, likely continue to decline, but the political vacuum it helped
create in Iraq and Syria will persist, giving Russia and especially Iran the diplomatic cover to expand their influence. The unique mix of political
forces in the Middle East suggests three possibilities in the event of U.S. naval withdrawal from the region, and none favor U.S.
interests. First, Russia may broker a political arrangement among Turkey, Israel, and Iran, or, alternatively, support a coalition pitting some of
those states against another in an effort to manufacture a manageable regional balance of power and allowing it to shift its attention back to
Europe. The final shape of this strategy would depend on several variables: Turkey’s approach to Syria, Israel’s posture against Iran (and its
proxies), the outcome of Saudi Arabia’s war in Yemen, the Kurdish question, and the possibility of the Islamic State’s resurgence. Regardless of
these factors, Russia will still bid for control of the Mediterranean Sea, which the United States will be hard-pressed to counter, particularly if
China can manipulate its European economic partners into limiting or expelling the U.S. Navy from its Mediterranean bases. If that happens,
Washington will have to fight its way back into the region for the first time since World War II. In the second scenario, Iran defeats Saudi Arabia
in a regional confrontation, thereby taking the top leadership spot in the Islamic world, making it a great power in its own right. Control of
Middle Eastern oil exports would give Iran the ability to coerce and bully the United States’ European and Pacific allies, and it would deny the
United States any peaceful access to the Levantine Basin. The balancing dynamics against this new great power are difficult to project, but
regardless, the United States’ ability to control the strategic environment would be hampered markedly. Third, a long-term regional
war between Tehran and a fluctuating anti-Iran coalition composed of Saudi Arabia, other Sunni Gulf states, and
Israel would cause widespread bloodshed. As the 1980s Iran-Iraq War demonstrated, both
Iran and Saudi Arabia would be likely to attempt nuclear breakout. With Iran, this would
mean closing the small technological gap that now exists between its low-enriched uranium to the higher level
Off their C2 w/ Hoffman + Davison & Stewart of economic crisis and war
1. Our DeBartolo Card shows that people want democracy, US promotes democracy
like it did in Iraq and when it left Afghanistan democracy drastically worsened,
on U.S. deterrence.
Roberts: Roberts, David [Senior Lecturer at the School of Security Studies lead for Regional Security and Development at
King’s College London], “For decades, Gulf leaders counted on U.S. protection. Here’s what changed”, Washington Post,
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/01/30/decades-gulf-leaders-counted-us-protection-heres-what-changed/TDI/RP
Gulf countries relied on U.S. protection. For the Gulf monarchies, protection through
deterrence has long been a central point of their relationship with the U nited S tates. Since the
establishment of the Saudi-U.S. relationship in the 1940s, such starkly different countries have seldom forged denser bilateral relations. Saudi leaders saw neither commonality nor familiarity
with their U.S. counterparts. Rather, they expanded the scope and depth of this bilateral relationship to
benefit from closer U.S. technical and advisory cooperation — and counted on an ever-
closer defensive and protective relationship with the U nited S tates to ward off a growing
array of regional security threats . The U.S. government, a veritable army of contractors and
consultants, and other Western nations such as Britain, played decisive roles in shaping
and modernizing the security institutions in the Gulf monarchies, but particularly in Saudi
Arabia. The security-rooted relationship between Washington, London, Paris and the Gulf capitals flourished regardless of other political controversies. The monarchies enjoyed
relatively unfettered access to the most advanced Western military equipment, spending hundreds of millions of dollars in Western capitals. By comparison, since 2008, the monarchies have
outspent Iran by about 180 to 1 on weaponry. When its Gulf clients were threatened, the U nited S tates in the past
delivered on its commitments . During the 1980s Tanker War , the United States deployed
forces to the Persian Gulf to reflag and protect Gulf shipping. In 1990-1991, the United
States led one of the largest coalitions in modern history to defend the monarchies and
liberate Kuwait. This Gulf War demonstrated both the dangers of the Gulf region , and the
CRS: Congressional Research Service. [The Congressional Research Service is a public policy research institute of the United
States Congress. Operating within the Library of Congress, it works primarily and directly for members of Congress and their
committees and staff on a confidential, nonpartisan basis.] “U.S. Foreign Assistance to the Middle East: Historical, Recent Trends, and
the FY2024 Background Request.” August 15, 2023. https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46344 FW
Since 1946, the United States has provided an estimated total of $372.6 billion (obligations in current dollars) in foreign assistance to the MENA
region. For FY2024, overall aid requested for the MENA region amounts to $7.57 billion , or about
11% of the State Department’s International Affairs budget request. Compared with FY2022 actuals (not including emergency supplemental
funding), for FY2024, the Administration proposed to reduce MENA funding by 3.5%. As in previous years, assistance for Israel, Egypt, and
Jordan constitutes the majority of the Middle East funding request. The region also receives a sizable portion of annual humanitarian assistance
appropriations, which are not included in the region-specific aid figures. Amid resurgent conflict between Israelis and Palestinians in the West
Bank, the President’s FY2024 request seeks $225 million in economic aid for the Palestinians and $50 million
to support the Nita M. Lowey Middle East Partnership for Peace Act of 2020. It also seeks $33
million in non-lethal security and justice sector assistance for the Palestinian Authority (PA).
The Taylor Force Act prohibits economic assistance that “directly benefits” the PA—subject to limited, specified exceptions—in response to
continued PA payments “for acts of terrorism” against Israel. Reflecting democratic backsliding in Tunisia, the FY2024 budget request would
decrease aid to Tunisia. President Kaïs Saïed’s increasingly authoritarian rule has quashed Tunisia’s nascent democratic system, established after
The United States remains the single largest humanitarian donor to the Syria response.
With this new funding, the United States has provided more than $1.1 billion in
humanitarian assistance throughout Syria and the region in FY 2023, and nearly $16.8
The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) has operated in Yemen since
1959. In 2003, following a seven-year absence, USAID reopened its mission in Yemen
with assistance principally focused on basic education, maternal and child health, and
agriculture. In 2009, amidst growing instability and a greater sense of urgency, USAID
developed a new stabilization strategy that targets underserved communities with support
for basic education, health, livelihoods, and food security. USAID also supports more
includes naval assets and air capabilities positioned strategically in the Gulf region.
American missile defense systems prove an early warning system should Iran launch a
Second: Responsive U.S. military presence influences Iran's strategic calculations, maintaining
regional security. Swift deployment capabilities send a clear message about readiness.
As an ov to the aff – they are dependent on USMP nuclear war and extinction, however,
Not true: No nuke war - major states released a joint statement that it will never happen,
Ostroukh 1-4 [Andrey Ostroukh, 1-4-2022, "‘No one can win a nuclear war’: Superpowers release rare joint statement," Sydney
Morning Herald, https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/no-one-can-win-a-nuclear-war-superpowers-release-rare-joint-statement-20220104-
p59lmf.html]
Moscow: China, Russia, the UK, the United States and France have agreed that a further spread of
nuclear arms and a nuclear war should be avoided. According to a joint statement released on Tuesday morning (AEDT), the
five countries – permanent members of the United Nations Security Council – said they considered it their primary
responsibility to avoid war between the nuclear states and to reduce strategic risks, while
aiming to work to create an atmosphere of security. Hiroshima Peace Memorial Park. The five countries making up the UN Security Council – all
nuclear powers – say a nuclear war must never be fought. “We declare there could be no winners in a nuclear war, it
should never be started,” the Russian-language version of the statement read. An English-language version . “We affirm
that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought, ” the statement reads. “We also affirm that
nuclear weapons – for as long as they continue to exist – should serve defensive purposes, deter aggression and prevent war. We believe strongly
that the further spread of such weapons must be prevented.” The statement goes on to discuss the importance of addressing nuclear threats and of
preserving and complying with non-proliferation, disarmament and arms control agreements. “We each intend to maintain and further strengthen
our national measures to prevent unauthorised or unintended use of nuclear weapons,” the statement reads. “We underline our desire to work with
all states to create a security environment more conducive to progress on disarmament with the ultimate goal of a world without nuclear weapons
with undiminished security for all.” France also released the statement, underscoring that the five powers reiterated their determination for
nuclear arms control and disarmament. They would continue bilateral and multilateral approaches to nuclear arms control, it said. The declaration
comes despite a UN decision last week to postpone a key arms-control meeting in New York – originally scheduled for February – due to rising
COVID-19 infections. Diplomats had been scheduled to meet to review the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the 1970 accord designed to limit
the spread of atomic arms. Under the accord, China, Russia, the UK, the United States and France were all granted dispensations to maintain
stockpiles as long as they continued working towards the eventual elimination of nuclear weapons. .
Off Palestine
First: U.S. military aid to Israel strengthens regional security, indirectly impacting
Off USMP being the main cause of terrorism – no where in their case does it
say that,
And they don’t solve – they don’t specify that reducing troops will solve all
the issues they claim, they don’t specify a reduction of presence meaning
troops,
[Cuny] The aff SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCES USMP – they don’t spec what kind – less
Cuny: Cuny, Frederick C. [American humanitarian whose work spanned disaster relief, refugee emergency management, recovery from war
and civil conflict as well as disaster and emergency preparedness, mitigation and peacebuilding] “Use of the Military in Humanitarian Relief.”
PBS.org, November 1989. http://tinyurl.com/2zs7u55t CH
all corners of the world. In the public mind, there is an association between disaster relief and military involvement; indeed,
there is often an expectation that military units will assist the civilian population in the immediate
aftermath of wars and large-scale emergencies. The earliest recorded instances predate Alexander the Great. The
assistance of armies to the populations they had conquered was seen as a humane gesture to the vanquished -- and, not inconsequentially, a means
of winning some degree of loyalty to the new regime. Initially, humanitarian assistance was simply logistical. Soldiers provided an interim
administration to ensure that food and other vital supplies reached the population. There was an element of self-interest involved; if the people
were producing food and goods, the army's own logistics were simpler. By the Napoleonic period, this use of military forces had become so well-
established that it was seen as an adjunct to military science. The concept of establishing martial law over civil populations was developed as a
means of structuring this involvement in a post-conquest period. While most European armies of the period pursued only a limited security
objective with martial law, Napoleon and the French revolutionary armies saw it as a means of changing the social structure and bringing the
benefits and new social order of the French Revolution to the occupied territories. (That they failed is a lesson to be learned.) Post-World War II
Europe witnessed what was perhaps the most extensive use of the military in civil affairs. It is important to recognize the influence this had both
on military doctrines of civil involvement and on development of the international relief system and the approaches that relief agencies have used
since that time. The task that faced the Allies in the aftermath of the war was enormous. Virtually an entire continent had to be administered.
Vestiges of the Nazi regime had to be eradicated, whole populations had to be reunited or resettled and economies rejuvenated. Civil government
and the rule of law had to be reestablished and entire civil administrations restructured. The role of the military was expanded as never before.
The public administrative function was perceived as so important by the Allies that special attention was given to recruiting civil administrators,
city planners, urban development specialists, and hundreds of persons skilled in operating the systems of modern cities and their governments.
From the beginning, the objective was to establish martial law in the occupied territories, then quickly rebuild indigenous capacity to manage the
cities, the provinces and, ultimately, the national governments. In Germany, the process took longer but the goal was the same -- the military role
was to shift from security and management to strictly security as quickly as possible.
He adds: Cuny, Frederick C. [American humanitarian whose work spanned disaster relief, refugee emergency management, recovery from
war and civil conflict as well as disaster and emergency preparedness, mitigation and peacebuilding] “Use of the Military in Humanitarian
Relief.” PBS.org, November 1989. http://tinyurl.com/2zs7u55t CH
To help answer these questions, we will look at reasons for military involvement in humanitarian operations, scenarios under which the military
may be deployed, and configurations or models of deployment. We will then examine several cases to identify some of the key lessons and
issues. To help understand the complexities of the relief environment and the constraints it presents, the nature of disasters in the Third World
will be explored. Finally, the dilemmas facing military commanders in humanitarian operations will be identified and discussed, and specific
recommendations for overcoming or avoiding the pitfalls will be presented. REASONS FOR INVOLVEMENT Civilian authorities turn
to the military for help in humanitarian operations for several reasons, among which the most obvious may be
their physical assets. The military is often regarded as a cornucopia of assistance. Among the most sought-after
assets are transport (land, sea and air); fuel; communications; commodities including food,
building supplies and medicines; tools and equipment; manpower; technical assistance
(especially logistics and communications) and facilities. Requests can run the gamut from the arcane, like
delousing equipment, to the mundane, like maps; from cheap items like soap, to highly-sophisticated items like bulldozers; from off-the-shelf
items like tents, to items that must be specially produced such as aerial photographs. Relief authorities know the military has
environment, it is not unreasonable for authorities to request them. Since many of the items are commonly
stockpiled and since civil disaster agencies have few stockpiles of their own, especially in the developing countries, demands can be quite
extensive. Of these assets, several are particularly attractive to emergency managers. For example, communication is critical in emergencies but
in most countries there are severe restrictions that limit civilian access to radio/telephonic systems. Thus, in the aftermath of a disaster, it is not
unreasonable for civilians to turn to the military for these services. The vast, disciplined and generally self-supporting
manpower of the military is the other key asset coveted by civil disaster authorities. Most disaster
victims will be looking after their own needs at a time when civil works and repairs may require large commitments of personnel. Again, it is not
unreasonable for civilian authorities to want to put the army to work clearing rubble, patching roads, etc.
These last two assets help to explain the second reason why civil authorities often seek
military assistance: communications and discipline – what the military refers to as chain-of-
command -- are important elements in managing the post-disaster environment. For the most part, civil
administration will be severely limited; their communications are likely to be affected and staff members may be among the victims requiring
assistance. On the other hand, few indigenous military organizations will be affected to any great extent; military facilities usually weather storms
and earthquakes well and personnel are unlikely to be affected by famines or food shortages. In cases where local forces have been affected or
have been ordered back to their barracks while an international peacekeeping force guarantees disengagement, the internal communications and
command-and-control systems of the outside force are likely to be even more sophisticated and secure. To a civil relief official in the midst of
post-disaster chaos, a disciplined, ordered system is just what is needed to get things out to the affected population. Finally, there is the element
of history and past experience. As mentioned earlier, there is a long association of the military with relief operations and an expectation of some
degree of involvement on both sides. After the 1985 Mexico City earthquake, the government was severely criticized by the public for not
bringing in the army for more than routine security, despite President de la Madrid's stated reason that he wanted to employ large numbers of the
victims in civil works projects rather than use the army to restore services and clear the rubble.
DEVASTATING CYCLES – turns and outweighs case, since there’s MORE violence on the
aff.
UNICEF, 10/24: United Nations Children’s Fund. [Agency of the United Nations responsible for providing humanitarian and
developmental aid to children worldwide] “Child casualties in Gaza ‘a growing stain on our collective conscience.’” UNICEF, October 24, 2023.
https://www.unicef.org/press-releases/child-casualties-gaza-growing-stain-our-collective-conscience CH
NEW YORK/AMMAN, 24 October 2023 – Over the past 18 days, the Gaza Strip has borne witness to a devastating toll on its
children, with a reported 2,360 fatalities and a reported 5,364 injuries due to unrelenting attacks, or more
than 400 children reportedly either killed or injured daily. Additionally, more than 30 Israeli children reportedly have lost
their lives, and dozens remain in captivity within the Gaza Strip. The 18-day period is the deadliest escalation of hostilities in the Gaza Strip and
Israel that the UN has witnessed since 2006. Almost every child in the Gaza Strip has been exposed to deeply distressing events and trauma,
marked by widespread destruction, relentless attacks, displacement, and severe shortages of essential necessities such as food, water, and
medicine. “The killing and maiming of children, abduction of children, attacks on hospitals and schools, and the denial of humanitarian access
constitute grave violations of children's rights,” said Adele Khodr, UNICEF Regional Director for the Middle East and North Africa. “UNICEF
urgently appeals on all parties to agree to a ceasefire, allow humanitarian access and release all hostages. Even wars have rules. Civilians must be
protected – children particularly – and all efforts must be made to spare them in all circumstances.” The West Bank has also witnessed an
alarming surge in casualties, with nearly a hundred Palestinians reportedly losing their lives, including 28 children, and at least 160 children
reportedly sustaining injuries. Even before the tragic events of October 7, 2023, children in the West Bank were already grappling with the
highest levels of conflict-related violence in two decades, resulting in the loss of 41 Palestinian children and six Israeli children's lives so far this
year. “The situation in the Gaza Strip is a growing stain on our collective conscience. The rate of death and injuries of children simply
staggering,” said Khodr. “Even more frightening is the fact that unless tensions are eased, and unless humanitarian aid is
allowed, including food, water, medical supplies and fuel, the daily death toll will continue to rise .” Fuel is of
paramount importance for the operation of essential facilities such as hospitals, desalination plants, and water pumping stations. Neonatal
intensive care units house over 100 newborns, some of whom are in incubators and rely on mechanical ventilation, making an uninterrupted
power supply a matter of life and death. The entire population of the Gaza Strip, comprising nearly 2.3 million people, is
facing a dire and pressing lack of water, which poses grave consequences for children, roughly 50 per cent of the
population. The majority of water systems have been severely impacted or rendered non-operational due to a combination of factors, including
fuel shortages and damage to vital production, treatment, and distribution infrastructure. Currently, the water production capacity is a mere 5 per
cent of its usual daily output. Vulnerable population groups are resorting to non-potable water sources, including high-salinity and brackish-
quality water from agricultural wells. To compound the issue, the five Gaza wastewater treatment plants have ceased operations, primarily
because of fuel shortages, leading to over 120,000 cubic meters of wastewater being discharged into the sea. "The footage of children being
rescued from beneath the rubble, injured and in distress, while trembling in hospitals as they await treatment, portrays the immense horror these
children are enduring. But without humanitarian access, the deaths from attacks could be the tip of
the iceberg ," said Khodr. “ The death toll will increase exponentially if incubators start to fail,
if hospitals go dark, if children continue to drink unsafe water and incubators start to fail,
if hospitals go dark, if children continue to drink unsafe water and have no access to
medicine when they get sick.” To respond to the dire situation for children in the Gaza Strip, UNICEF is calling for: An
immediate humanitarian ceasefire. All access crossings into Gaza to be opened for a safe, sustained and unimpeded access of humanitarian aid,
including water, food, medical supplies, and fuel. Urgent medical cases in Gaza to be allowed to leave or to be able to receive critical health
services. Respect and protection for civilian infrastructure such as shelters and schools, and health, electric, water and sanitation facilities, to
prevent loss of civilian and children’s lives, outbreaks of diseases, and to provide care to the sick and wounded.
Off ur C2, if war isn’t happening rn, why is it magically gonna happen if we don’t
Why do we care about keeping the economy stable when peoples lives are being saved by
USMP?