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ROBERT STINE DEAN FOSTER
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Statistics for Business
Decision Making and Analysis
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Decision Making and Analysis

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Third Edition
ISBN-13: 978-0-13-449716-7
ISBN-10: 0-13-449716-3
9 0 0 0 0
STINE
9 780134 497167
FOSTER
CONTENTS vii
11 Probability Models for Counts 251

11.1 Random Variables for Counts 252
11.2 Binomial Model 254
11.3 Properties of Binomial Random Variables 255
11.4 Poisson Model 259
Chapter Summary 265
12 The Normal Probability Model 270

12.1 Normal Random Variable 271
12.2 The Normal Model 274
12.3 Percentiles 280
12.4 Departures from Normality 282
Chapter Summary 290
CASE: STATISTICS IN ACTION Managing Financial Risk 298
CASE: STATISTICS IN ACTION Modeling Sampling Variation 306
PART III Inference

13 Samples and Surveys 314
13.1 Two Surprising Properties of Samples 315
13.2 Variation 320
13.3 Alternative Sampling Methods 323
13.4 Questions to Ask 326
Chapter Summary 329
14 Sampling Variation and Quality 334

14.1 Sampling Distribution of the Mean 335
14.2 Control Limits 340
14.3 Using a Control Chart 344
14.4 Control Charts for Variation 347
Chapter Summary 354
15 Confidence Intervals 362

15.1 Ranges for Parameters 363
15.2 Confidence Interval for the Mean 368
15.3 Interpreting Confidence Intervals 372
15.4 Manipulating Confidence Intervals 373
15.5 Margin of Error 376
Chapter Summary 384
16 Statistical Tests 391

16.1 Concepts of Statistical Tests 392
16.2 Testing the Proportion 397
16.3 Testing the Mean 404
A01_STIN7167_03_SE_FM.indd 7 12/11/16 10:03 AM

viii CONTENTS
16.4 Significance versus Importance 408

16.5 Confidence Interval or Test? 409
Chapter Summary 413
17 Comparison 420
17.1 Types of Comparisons 421
17.2 Data for Comparisons 421
17.3 Two-Sample z-Test for Proportions 424
17.4 Two-Sample Confidence Interval for Proportions 425
17.5 two-Sample t-Test 429
17.6 Confidence Interval for the Difference Between Means 433
17.7 Paired Comparisons 436
Chapter Summary 446
18 Inference for Counts 453

18.1 Chi-Squared Tests 454
18.2 Test of Independence 454
18.3 General versus Specific Hypotheses 466
18.4 Tests of Goodness of Fit 467
Chapter Summary 477
CASE: STATISTICS IN ACTION Rare Events 484
CASE: STATISTICS IN ACTION Data Mining Using Chi-Squared 491
PART IV Regression Models

19 Linear Patterns 498
19.1 Fitting a Line to Data 499
19.2 Interpreting the Fitted Line 501
19.3 Properties of Residuals 506
19.4 Explaining Variation 508
19.5 Conditions for Simple Regression 510
Chapter Summary 520
20 Curved Patterns 528

20.1 Detecting Nonlinear Patterns 529
20.2 Transformations 531
20.3 Reciprocal Transformation 532
20.4 Logarithm Transformation 538
Chapter Summary 550
21 The Simple Regression Model 557

21.1 The Simple Regression Model 558
21.2 Conditions for the SRM 562
21.3 Inference in Regression 565
21.4 Prediction Intervals 573
Chapter Summary 587

CONTENTS ix
22 Regression Diagnostics 596

22.1 Changing Variation 597
22.2 Outliers 607
22.3 Dependent Errors and Time Series 611
Chapter Summary 622
23 Multiple Regression 630

23.1 The Multiple Regression Model 631
23.2 Interpreting Multiple Regression 632
23.3 Checking Conditions 640
23.4 Inference In Multiple Regression 642
23.5 Steps In Fitting A Multiple Regression 646
Chapter Summary 656
24 Building Regression Models 667

24.1 Identifying Explanatory Variables 668
24.2 Collinearity 673
24.3 Removing Explanatory Variables 678
Chapter Summary 694
25 Categorical Explanatory Variables 703

25.1 Two-Sample Comparisons 704
25.2 Analysis of Covariance 706
25.3 Checking Conditions 711
25.4 Interactions and Inference 712
25.5 Regression with Several Groups 719
Chapter Summary 726
26 Analysis of Variance 736

26.1 Comparing Several Groups 737
26.2 Inference in ANOVA Regression Models 744
26.3 Multiple Comparisons 748
26.4 Groups of Different Size 754
Chapter Summary 759
27 Time Series 768

27.1 Decomposing a Time Series 769
27.2 Regression Models 772
27.3 Checking the Model 782
Chapter Summary 797
CASE: STATISTICS IN ACTION Analyzing Experiments 807
CASE: STATISTICS IN ACTION Automated Modeling 815

x CONTENTS
Appendix: Tables 823

Answers A-1
Credits C-1
Index I-1
Supplementary Material (online-only)
S1 Alternative Approaches to Inference S1-1
S2 Two-Way Analysis of Variance S2-1
S3 Regression with Big Data S3-1

PREFACE
Knowledge of statistics is a great asset in business, but another way to get ahead of the competition, the key is
getting the most value from this asset requires knowing a desire to learn how statistics can produce better de-
how to ask and answer the right questions. Choosing the cisions and insights from the growing amount of data
right question and solving the problem correctly require generated in modern businesses.
an appreciation of business as well as the subtleties of We don’t assume that readers have mastered the do-
statistics. Unless you understand the business issue from mains of a business education, such as economics, fi-
a finance, marketing, management, or accounting per- nance, marketing, or accounting. We do assume, though,
spective, you won’t see how statistics can help solve the that you care how ideas from these areas can improve a
problem. Performing the statistical analysis must wait business. If you’re interested in these applications—and
until you have grasped the issue facing the business. we think you will be—then our examples provide the
background you will need to appreciate why we want
to solve the challenges that we present in each chapter.
Solving Business Problems
Readers with more experience will discover that we’ve
This application-directed approach is key to business simplified the technical details of some applications, such
analytics and shapes our examples. We open each chap- as those in finance or marketing. Even so, we think that
ter with a business question that motivates the contents the examples offer those with substantive experience a
of the chapter. For extra practice, worked-out examples new perspective on familiar problems. We hope that you
within each chapter follow our 4M (Motivation, Method, will agree that the examples are realistic and get to the
Mechanics, Message) problem-solving strategy. The mo- heart of quantitative applications of statistics in business.
tivation sets up the problem and explains the relevance
of the question at hand. We then identify the appropri-
Technology
ate statistical method and work through the mechanics
of its calculation. Finally, the message answers the ques- You cannot do research in modern applied statistics
tion in language suitable for a business presentation or without computing. Data sets have grown in size and
report. Through the 4Ms, we’ll show you how a business complexity, making it impossible to work out the cal-
context guides the statistical procedure and how the re- culations by hand. Rather than dwell on routine cal-
sults determine a course of action. Motivation and Mes- culations, we rely on software (often referred to as a
sage are critical. The Motivation answers the question statistics package) to compute the results. Although we
“Why am I doing this analysis?”. If you cannot answer emphasize the use of technology, we give the formulas
that question, it’s hard to get the statistics correct. The and illustrate the calculations introduced in each chap-
Message has to express your answer in language that ter so that you will always know what the software is
is used in the business world. Understand the business doing. It is essential to appreciate what happens in the
first, then use statistics to help formulate your conclu- calculations: You need to understand how the calcu-
sion. Notice that we said “help.” A statistical analysis by lations are done in order to recognize when they are
itself is not the final answer. You must frame that analy- appropriate and when they fail. That does not mean,
sis in terms that others in the business will understand however, that you need to spend hours doing routine
and find persuasive. calculations. Your time is precious, and there’s only so
Our emphasis on the substantive use of statistics in much of it to go around. We think it makes good eco-
business shapes our view that the ideal reader for this nomic sense to take advantage of modern technology
text is someone with an interest in learning how statis- in order to give us more time to think harder and more
tical thinking improves the ability of a manager to run thoroughly about the motivating context for an applica-
or contribute to a business. Whether you’re an under- tion and to successfully present the business message.
graduate with an interest in business, an MBA looking When we present results obtained with a calcula-
to improve your skills, or a business owner looking for tor or computer, we typically round them. You don’t
xi

xii PREFACE
need to know that the profits from a projected sale examples, and illustrations that stress the impor-
are $123,234.32529. It’s usually better to round such a tance of these connections. For example, previous
number to $123 thousand. To let you know when we’ve editions introduced the 4M paradigm—motivation,
rounded a calculation, we say about or approximately. method, mechanics, and message—that shows how
In expressions, we denote rounding with the symbol < , to combine data and statistics to solve problems in
as in 1/6 < 0.167. business. This edition carries this metaphor further.
To help you learn how to use software, each chapter By explicitly linking this paradigm to analytics, this
includes hints on using Excel®, MinitabExpress®, and edition shows that business analytics requires blend-
JMP® for calculations. These hints won’t replace the help ing substantive relevance with statistical analysis.
provided by your software, but they will point you in the ■■ Up-to-date applications explore problems related to
right direction so that you don’t spin your wheels figur- “big data” and introduce hot topics such as A/B test-
ing out how to get started with an analysis. Supplemental ing that are popular in today’s businesses. Although the
software study cards are available for specific packages. methods behind these new topics are familiar within
statistics, the names are new. This edition makes sure
Data students know the new names so that they can link what
they learn in the classroom to what they read online.
Statistical analysis uses data, and we’ve provided lots ■■ This edition features more than 90 new and updated
of data to give you the opportunity to have some real data sets. The changed data range from examples
hands-on experience. As you read through the chap- used within chapters to those underlying exercises.
ters, you’ll discover a variety of data sets that include Important, highly visible changes include “through
real estate markets, stocks and bonds, technology, retail the cycle” finance and economic time series that
sales, human resource management, and fundamental span the 2008 recession.
economics. These data come from a range of sources, ■■ More than 100 enhanced exercises remove ambi-
and each chapter includes a discussion about where we guities and capture nuances in revised data. Many of
found the data used in examples. We hope you’ll use our these changes address issues identified by tracking
suggestions and find more. online student performance in completing related
exercises in MyStatLab. Problems that were worded
Prerequisite Knowledge in a way that might confuse students were clarified.
To appreciate the illustrative calculations and formulas,
■■ Excel is the workhorse tool of many businesses. This
readers will need to be familiar with basic algebra. Por- edition adds a section to every chapter that shows
tions of chapters that introduce a statistical method of- step by step how to complete analytic exercises with
ten include some algebra to show where a formula comes the latest version of Excel. Excel is the most popular
from. Usually, we only use basic algebra (up through top- software for introductory statistics, but some prefer
ics such as exponents and square roots). Several chapters the features offered by statistics packages such as
make extensive use of the logarithm function. If you’re Minitab or JMP. We’ve retained and updated hints in
interested in business and economics, this is a function each chapter for these as well.
worth getting to know a lot better. The applications we’ve
■■ It’s the little things. Hundreds of changes have been
provided, such as modeling sales or finding the best made throughout this edition to emphasize and clar-
price, show why the logarithm is so important. Occasion- ify key points. For example, this edition highlights
ally, we give credit to calculus for solving a problem, but additional tips throughout the text that help readers
we don’t present derivations using calculus. You’ll do fine recognize important points that might be overlooked.
if you are willing to accept that calculus is a branch of Clarified explanations, analogies, and examples in
more advanced mathematics that provides, among other every chapter encourage students to delve deeper
things, the ability to derive formulas that have special and learn for themselves.
properties. If you do know calculus, you’ll be able to see
where these expressions come from.
COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION
We have organized the chapters of this book into four
WHAT’S NEW IN THIS EDITION parts:
This edition adds more of what readers have found re- 1. Variation
ally useful: 2. Probability
3. Inference
■■ Business analytics relies on linking data to business
4. Regression Models
decisions. Businesses ranging from traditional banks
to the latest game developers are clamoring for em- Part I. These chapters introduce summary statistics
ployees who can connect data and models to substan- such as the mean and important graphical summaries,
tive business problems. This edition adds emphasis, including bar charts, histograms, and scatterplots. Even

PREFACE xiii
if you are familiar with these methods, we encourage Case Studies

you to skim the examples in these chapters. These ex-
Each of the four main parts of this book includes two
amples introduce important terminology that appears
supplemental case studies called Statistics in Action.
in subsequent chapters. A quick review will introduce
Each case study provides an in-depth look at a business
the notation that we use (which is rather standard) as
application of statistics. Every case uses real data and
well as give you a chance to look at some interesting
takes students through the details of using those data to
data. If you do skip past these, take advantage of the
address a business question. For example, a case study
index of Key Terms in each chapter to find definitions
for Part 1 explains details of stock market data, such
and examples.
as how stock returns account for dividends, and elabo-
Part II. Many courses in mathematics now include topics rates the nuances of financial data beyond the coverage
from probability. Even if you have seen basic probability, in the surrounding chapters.
you might benefit from reviewing how methods, such as We’ve found that it is easy to have a “chapter-centric”
Bayes’ Rule, can be used to improve business processes view of any subject; you know how to approach a prob-
(Chapter 8). If you plan to skip or move briskly through lem if the question identifies a chapter. Executing the
the rest of the chapters in Part 2, be sure that you’re famil- right approach is more difficult without that sort of clue.
iar with the concept of a random variable (Chapter 9). Sta- Case studies allow us to extend the statistical con-
tistical models use random variables to present an ideal- cepts introduced in the accompanying chapters in the
ized description of the data in applications. Unless you’re context of a longer, more complex case. For example,
familiar with random variables, you won’t appreciate the the second case in Part 1 carefully explains how to in-
important assumptions that come with their use in prac- terpret and use logarithms in the context of executive
tice. Chapter 11 describes special random variables used salaries. A case in Part 3 explores the use of many chi-
to model counts, and Chapter 12 defines normal random squared tests in an operations management problem
variables that appear so often in statistical models. that resembles data mining. While logs, chi-squared
tests, and issues of multiple testing all appear in the
Part III. This part presents the foundations for statistical
regular flow of the main chapters, case studies provide
inference, the process of inferring properties of an entire
a means for us to cover these topics in more detail than
population from those of a subset known as a sample.
we thought was appropriate for everyone.
Even if you are not interested in quality control, we en-
courage you to read Chapter 14. Chapter 14 uses quality
control to introduce a fundamental concept of inferential Supplementary Chapters
statistics, the sampling distribution and standard error.
For this edition, we’ve added a few supplementary chap-
You can get by in statistics with a basic understanding of
ters that are available online. These cover topics that are
the concept of a sampling distribution, but the more you
less common in the typical business stats course, but of-
know about sampling distributions, the better. Each in-
ten useful. One chapter covers methods that are needed
ferential procedure comes with a checklist of conditions
when the usual approaches don’t apply. For example,
that tell you whether your data and situation match up
suppose data are so skewed that one cannot use stan-
to the various inferential techniques in these chapters.
dard methods for building a confidence interval for the
Part IV. The chapters in Part 4 describe regression mod- mean. What are you to do? The supplemental chapter
eling. Regression modeling allows us to associate how Alternative Approaches to Inference gives an answer.
differences in data that describe one phenomenon are Two other supplemental chapters go deeper into regres-
related to differences in others. Regression models are sion modeling. The chapter Two-Way Analysis of Vari-
among the most powerful ways to use statistics in busi- ance goes beyond Chapter 26 and looks at two-way (and
ness, providing methods for assessing profitability, setting higher) analysis of variance, including those with ran-
prices, identifying anomalies, and generating forecasts. domized blocking and interactions. The chapter Regres-
We encourage you to slow down and take your time study- sion Modeling with Big Data goes beyond Chapter 24
ing these chapters. Even if you don’t see yourself doing and the Statistics in Action cases with coverage of how to
statistics in your career in business, you can be sure build regression models when confronted by “big-data”
that you will be presented with the results of regression issues that have become more common in business.
models. Because the examples in these chapters allow
us to describe the interconnectedness of several busi-
ness processes at once, they become even more interest-
ing than those in prior chapters. Be careful if you skip
FEATURES
Chapter 20. The material in this chapter shows how to Motivating Examples. Each chapter opens with a
model a richer set of patterns and is less common in business example that frames a question and motivates
business textbooks, but we think these ideas are an es- the contents of the chapter. We return to the example
sential component of every manager’s tool set. throughout the chapter, as we present the statistical

xiv PREFACE
methods that provide answers to the question posed in Software Hints. Each chapter includes hints on using
the opening example. Excel, Minitab, and JMP for calculations. These hints
give students a jumping off point for getting started
The 4M (Motivation,
4M Analytics Examples doing statistical analysis with software. Supplemental
Method, Mechanics, study cards for these and other software packages are
Message) problem-solving strategy gives students a clear available from the publisher.
outline for solving any business problem. Each 4M ex-
ample first expresses a business question in context, Behind the Math. At the end of most chapters, a Be-
then guides students to determine the best statistical hind the Math section provides interesting technical
method for working the problem using statistical soft- details that explain important results, such as the jus-
ware, and, finally, frames the analysis in terms that oth- tification or interpretation for an underlying formula.
ers in the business world will understand. If you are so inclined, they will help you appreciate the
subtleties and logic behind the mechanics, but they are
Short question sets not necessary for using statistics.
What Do You Think? throughout each chapter
give students the opportunity to check their under- Chapter Summary. These chapter-ending summaries
standing of what they’ve just read. These questions are provide a complete review of the content.
intended to be a quick check of key concepts and ideas
presented in the chapter; most questions involve very ■■ Key Terms We provide an index of the chapter’s key
little calculation. Answers are located in a footnote so terms at the end of each chapter to give students a
that students can easily check their answers before quick and easy way to return to important definitions
moving on in the text. in the text.
■■ Objectives This new feature provides a list of what
Tips. We highlight useful hints for applying sta- students should understand after having read a
tip tistical methods within the exposition so that chapter.
students don’t miss them. ■■ Formulas Important formulas introduced within the
chapter are restated.
Caution. You’ll see the caution icon next
■■ About the Data This feature provides sources for the
caution data used throughout the chapter with further back-
to material that might be confusing. You
should be extra careful to make sure you understand ground.
the material being discussed.
Exercises. Each chapter contains a variety of exercises
✓ Checklist. Some statistics presume that the informa- at escalating levels of difficulty in order to give students
tion presented satisfies several conditions or assump- a full complement of practice in problem solving using
tions. For example, certain statistics only detect pat- the skills they’ve learned in the chapter. Types of ex-
terns that resemble lines. You would not want to use ercises include Matching, True/False, Think About It,
these if you were looking for a curve. To help you keep You Do It, and 4M Exercises. You’ll find the data for the
track of the assumptions, the conditions are collected 4M and You Do It exercises on Pearson’s Math and Sta-
in a checklist. tistics Resources Website: http://www.pearsonhighered
.com/mathstats
Best Practices. At the end of each chapter, we include ■■ Matching and True/False exercises test students’ abil-
a collection of tips for applying the chapter’s concepts ity to recognize the basic mathematical symbols and
successfully and ethically. terminology they have learned in the chapter. We
avoid unnecessary formulas, but certain symbols
Pitfalls. Most of the unintentional mistakes people make and terminology show up so often that students are
when learning statistics are avoidable and usually come well served to recognize them.
from using the wrong method for the situation or misinter- ■■ Think About It exercises ask students to pull together
preting the results. This feature at the end of each chapter the chapter’s concepts in order to solve conceptual
provides useful tips for avoiding common mistakes. problems. You don’t need a computer or calculator
Data Analytics: The authors analyzed aggregated student for most of these.
usage and performance data from MyStatLab™ for the ■■ You Do It exercises give students practice solv-
previous edition of this text. The results of this analysis ing problems that reinforce the mechanics they’ve
helped improve the quality and quantity of exercises that learned in the chapter. These exercises apply the
matter the most to instructors and students. methods of the chapter to data related to a business

PREFACE xv
application. Working through the steps of these ex- ■■ 4M Analytics exercises are rich, challenging applica-
ercises helps you practice the mechanics. We expect tions rooted in real business situations. These ask
you to use a statistics software package for many of students to apply the statistical knowledge they’ve
these. developed in the chapter to a set of questions about a
particular business problem.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
We didn’t develop our approach to business statistics Joan Donohue, University of South Carolina
in isolation. Our colleagues at Wharton have helped Steve Erikson, Babson College
shape our approach to teaching statistics in business.
Nancy Freeman, Shelton State Community College
Many of the ideas and examples that you’ll find here
arose from suggestions made by colleagues, including Daniel Friesen, Midwestern State University
Andreas Buja, Sasha Rakhlin, Paul Shaman, Richard Deborah J. Gougeon, University of Scranton
Waterman, and Adi Wyner. Over the years, members of Christian Grandzol, Bloomsburg University
our department have come to share a common attitude
Betsy Greenberg, University of Texas—Austin
toward the use of statistics in business, and this text re-
flects that shared perspective. Most of the examples and Ken Griffin, University of Central Arkansas
many exercises from the text have been tried in other John Grout, Berry College
classes and improved using that feedback. We owe Warren Gulko, University Of North
these friends a debt of gratitude for their willingness to Carolina, Wilmington
talk about the fundamental use of statistics in business
Marie Halvorsen-Ganepola, Notre Dame University
and to explore alternative explanations and examples.
Many thanks to the following reviewers for their Clifford B. Hawley, West Virginia University
comments and suggestions during the revision of this Bob Hopfe, California State University—Sacramento
text. Max Houck, West Virginia University
David Hudgins, University of Oklahoma
Kunle Adamson, DeVry University
Jeffrey Jarrett, University of Rhode Island
Elaine Allen, Babson College
Chun Jin, Central Connecticut State University
Randy Anderson, California State University—Fresno
Christopher K. Johnson, Ph.D. University of
Djeto Assane, University of Nevada, Las Vegas North Florida
Rajesh K. Barnwal, Middle Tennessee State University Morgan Jones, University of North Carolina
Dipankar Basu, Miami University Ronald K. Klimberg, Saint Joseph’s University
Mark Bloxom, Alfred State College SUNY College of David Kopcso, Babson College
Technology
Supriya Lahiri, University of Massachusetts, Lowell
Hannah Bolte, Indiana University Bloomington
Mark T. Leung, University of Texas—San Antonio
David Booth, Kent State University, Main Campus
Tony Lin, Ph.D., University of Southern California
John E. Boyer, Jr., Kansas State University
John McKenzie, Babson College
Michael Braun, Southern Methodist University
Kay McKinzie, University of Central Arkansas
Daniel G. Brick, University of St. Thomas
Mark R. Marino, Niagara University
Nancy Burnett, University of Wisconsin—Oshkosh
Dennis Mathaisel, Babson College
Richard Cleary, Bentley College
Sherryl May, University of Pittsburgh
Ismael Dambolena, Babson College
Bruce McCullough, Drexel University
Anne Davey, Northeastern State University
Richard McGowan, Boston College
Dr. Michael Deis, Clayton University
Constance McLaren, Indiana State University
Frederick W. Derrick, Loyola University Maryland
Robert Meeks, Pima Community College
Neil Desnoyers, Drexel University
Jeffrey Michael, Towson University

xvi PREFACE
Prakash Mirchandani, University of Pittsburgh Omeed Selbe, University of Southern California

Jason Molitierno, Sacred Heart University Gary Smith, Florida State University
Carolyn H. Monroe, Baylor University Erl Sorensen, Bentley College
Gourab Mukherjee, University of Southern California Bert Steece, University of Southern California
Patricia Ann Mullins, University of J. H. Sullivan, Mississippi State University
Wisconsin—Madison Dr. Kathryn A. Szabat, LaSalle University
Quinton J. Nottingham, Virginia Polytechnic & Rajesh Tahiliani, University of Texas—El Paso
State University
Patrick A. Thompson, University of Florida
Keith Ord, Georgetown University
Denise Sakai Troxell, Babson College
Michael Parzen, Emory University
Bulent Uyar, University of Northern Iowa
M. Patterson, Midwestern State University
John Wang, Montclair State University
Robert Pred, Ph.D., Temple University
Dr. William D. Warde, Oklahoma State University,
Leonard Presby, William Paterson University Main Campus
Darrell Radson, Drexel University Elizabeth Wark, Worcester State University
Farhad Raiszadeh, University of James Weber, University of Illinois—Chicago
Tennessee—Chattanooga
Fred Wiseman, Northeastern University
Ranga Ramasesh, Texas Christian University
Roman Wong, Barry University
Deborah Rumsey, The Ohio State University
Zhiwei Zhu, University of Louisiana at Lafayette
John Saber, Babson College
Dr. Subarna Samanta, The College of New Jersey We would also like to thank our accuracy checkers
Subarna Samanta, The College of New Jersey Caroline Swift and Dirk Tempelaar. Thanks also to
Hedayeh Samavati, Indiana University—Purdue Lifland et al., and our Pearson Education team for their
Fort Wayne help and support, especially: Deirdre Lynch, Erin Kelly,
Peggy McMahon, Justin Billing, Jennifer Myers, and
Rose Sebastianelli, University of Scranton
Aimee Thorne.

Resources for Success
Student Resources Online Test Bank
Online Test Bank, by Paul Lorczak
Student’s Solutions Manual This test bank contains ready-to-use quizzes and
Student’s Solutions Manual, by Zhiwei Zhu, Univer- tests that correlate to chapters in the text. The test-
sity of Louisiana, Lafayette bank is available for download from Pearson Educa-
This manual provides detailed, worked-out solution’s online catalog (http://www.pearsonhighered
tions to all odd-numbered text exercises. (ISBN-10: .com/irc).
0-13-449736-8; ISBN-13: 978-0-13-449736-5)
TestGen®
Study Cards for Business
TestGen® (www.pearsoned.com/testgen) enables
Statistics Software instructors to build, edit, print, and administer tests
This series of study cards provides students with using a computerized bank of questions developed
easy step-by-step instructions for using statistics to cover all the objectives of the text. TestGen is al-
software. Available for native Excel® 2016 (0-13- gorithmically based, allowing instructors to create
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Instructor Resources
Instructor’s Edition Technology Resources
This version of the text contains short answers to all
of the exercises within the exercise sets. (ISBN-10:
Data Sets
Data sets formatted for Minitab, Excel, JMP, and text
0-13-449738-4; ISBN-13: 978-0-13-449738-9)
files can be downloaded from MyStatLab or www
Instructor’s Solutions Manual, .pearsonhighered.com/mathstatsresources/.
Instructor’s Solutions Manual, by Zhiwei Zhu, Uni-
versity of Louisiana, Lafayette Business Insight Videos
This manual provides detailed, worked-out solu- This series of ten 5- to 7- minute videos, each about
tions to all of the book’s exercises. The Instruc- a well-known business and the challenges it faces,
tor’s Solutions Manual is available for download in focuses on statistical concepts as they pertain to
MyStatLab and from Pearson Education’s online the r eal world. The videos can be downloaded from
catalog (http://www.pearsonhighered.com/irc). within MyStatLab. Contact your Pearson represen-
tative for details.
Business Insight Video
Assessment Questions MyStatLab™ Online Course
Written to accompany the Business Insight Videos, (access code required)
these video-specific questions and answers can MyStatLab from Pearson is the world’s leading on-
be used for assessment or classroom discussion. line resource for teaching and learning statistics;
These are available for download from MyStatLab integrating interactive homework, assessment, and
or at www.pearsonhighered.com/irc. media in a flexible, easy-to-use format. MyStatLab is
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a course management system that helps individual NY, to demonstrate important statistical con-
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■■ MyStatLab can be implemented successfully in
eos will help students actually understand sta-
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user guide and assessment questions.
tifiable difference that integrated usage has on
student retention, subsequent success, and ■■ Business Insight Videos [for Business Statis-
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■■ 450 exercises in Getting Ready for Statistics
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course includes a full interactive online version of signed as a prerequisite to other assignments,
the accompanying textbook. if desired.
■■ Personalized Learning: MyStatLab’s personal-

■■ 1000 exercises in the Conceptual Question Li-
ized homework, and adaptive and companion brary require students to apply their statistical
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The homework and practice exercises in MyStat- ily analyze data sets from exercises and the text.
Lab align with the exercises in the textbook, and In addition, MyStatLab includes access to www
most regenerate algorithmically to give students .statcrunch.com, a vibrant online community where
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eText clips for extra help at point-of-use. ■■ Statistical Software, Support and Integration:
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drew Vickers takes to the streets of Brooklyn,
www.mystatlab.com

MathXL® for Statistics Online eos accompanying texts with copyright 2009 and
Course (access code required) later have closed captioning.
MathXL® is the homework and assessment engine ■■ More information on this functionality is avail-
that runs MyStatLab. (MyStatLab is MathXL plus a able at http://mystatlab.com/accessibility.
learning management system.)
And, MyStatLab comes from an experienced partner
With MathXL for Statistics, instructors can: with educational expertise and an eye on the future.
■■ Create, edit, and assign online homework and ■■ Knowing that you are using a Pearson product
tests using algorithmically generated exercises means knowing that you are using quality content.
correlated at the objective level to the textbook. That means that our eTexts are accurate and our
■■ Create and assign their own online exercises and assessment tools work. It means we are commit-
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■■ Maintain records of all student work, tracked in ■■ Whether you are just getting started with
MathXL’s online gradebook. MyStatLab, or have a question along the way, we’re
here to help you learn about our technologies and
With MathXL for Statistics, students can: how to incorporate them into your course.
■■ Take chapter tests in MathXL and receive person- To learn more about how MyStatLab combines prov-
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work assignments based on their test results. visit www.mystatlab.com or contact your Pearson
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directly to tutorial exercises for the objectives
they need to study. PowerPoint Lecture Slides
■■ Students can also access supplemental anima- PowerPoint Lecture Slides provide an outline for
tions directly from selected exercises. use in a lecture setting, presenting definitions, key
■■ Knowing that students often use external statisti- concepts, and figures from the text. These slides
cal software, we make it easy to copy our data are available within MyStatLab or at www.pearson-
sets, both from the eText and the MyStatLab highered.com/irc.
questions, into software like StatCrunch™, Minitab,
Excel and more.
StatCrunch
StatCrunch is powerful Web-based statistical soft-
MathXL for Statistics is available to qualified
ware that allows users to perform complex analyses,
adopters. For more information, visit our Web
share data sets, and generate compelling reports of
site at www.mathxl.com, or contact your Pearson
their data. The vibrant online community offers tens
representative.
of thousands of data sets for students to analyze.
■■ Collect. Users can upload their own data to Stat-
MyStatLab Accessibility Crunch or search a large library of publicly shared
■■ MyStatLab is compatible with the JAWS screen data sets, spanning almost any topic of interest.
reader, and enables multiple-choice, fill-in-the- Also, an online survey tool allows users to quickly
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for export to enrich reports with visual represen- and Minitab Express available ensures students can
tations of data. use the software for the duration of their course.
■■ Communicate. Reporting options help users cre- (ISBN-10: 0-13-445640-8; ISBN-13: 978-0-13-445640-9)
ate a wide variety of visually appealing represen-
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version of JMP desktop statistical discovery soft-
MyStatLab and StatCrunch is available by itself to
ware from SAS Institute, Inc., and is available for
qualified adopters. For more information, visit our
bundling with the text. Check with your Pearson
Web site at www.StatCrunch.com, or contact your
sales representative for order information. (ISBN-
Pearson representative.
10: 0-13-467979-2; ISBN-13: 978-0-13-467979-2)
XLSTAT™ for Pearson

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INDEX OF APPLICATIONS
CO ∙ Chapter Opener; IE ∙ In-Text Example; WT ∙ What Do You Think?; 4M ∙ Motivation, Method, Mechanics, Message;
P ∙ Pitfalls; BP ∙ Best Practices; AE ∙ Analytics in Excel; AD ∙ About the Data; BTM ∙ Behind the Math; TAI ∙ Think About It;
YDI ∙ You Do It; SA ∙ Statistics in Action; QT ∙ Questions for Thought
Accounting Dealer Earnings per Day (TAI) 266
Door Seam of a Vehicle (YDI) 359
Accounting Firm Filing Tax Forms (TAI) 295
Fatal Roll-Over Accidents (4M) 35–36; (AE) 40–41
Accounting Procedures (TAI) 332
Favorite Car Color (TAI) 103
Auditing a Business (4M) 178
Fuel Consumption in Cars (CO) 528; (IE) 529–538
Auditor Checking Transactions (WT) 368
Leasing Cars (4M) 390
Auditor Comparing Billable Invoices (TAI) 728
Male Drivers Involved in Serious Accidents (YDI) 296
Budget Allocation of a New Business (4M) 701–702
Motor Shafts in Automobile Engines (YDI) 359
Cost Accounting (4M) 139
Predicting Sales of New Cars (4M) 775–778; (AE) 792–793
Research and Development Expenses (YDI) 525, 593, 626, 663,
Price of New Cars (WT) 632
699, 732
Pricing of a Car (IE) 7–9
Rated Highway Gasoline Mileage (YDI) 77
Advertising Stopping Distances (YDI) 765
Advertising Among Internet Hosts (CO) 83; (IE) 80–83, 180–185; Trade in Asian Models (TAI) 44
(WT) 183 Trade in Domestic Models (TAI) 44
Advertising and Sales (IE) 559–561; (TAI) 591 Used Cars (WT) 14; (TAI) 76; (YDI) 449, 553–554
Advertising Firm Renewing Contract (TAI) 175
App advertising 187–190 Banking
Direct Mail Advertising (4M) 418
Adjustable Rate Mortgage (TAI) 74
Display Space (YDI) 553
ATM (YDI) 221
Evaluating a Promotion (4M) 435–436
Bank Collecting Data on Customers (TAI) 23, 24
Financial Advisor (YDI) 804
Banks Compete by Adding Special Services (YDI) 418
Judging the Credibility of Advertisements (4M) 751–754; (AE)
Basel II Standards for Banking (TAI) 386–387
756–758
Check Fees (TAI) 23
Monthly Sales and Advertising (P) 513
Credit Card Offer (CO) 362; (IE) 363, 366–367, 370–371, 374, 409
New Advertising Program (TAI) 449
Credit Card Profit Earned from a Customer (IE) 375–376
Pharmaceutical Advertising (CO) 251–251
Credit Cards (IE) 372; (AE) 472–473; (4M) 527
Priming in Advertising (4M) 723–725
Credit Risk (IE) 185
Promotion Response (4M) 389–390
Direct Deposits for Employees (TAI) 331
Television Advertising (TAI) 102
Federal Regulators Requiring Bank to Maintain Cash Reserves
Television Commercials (4M) 403; (AE) 411; (TAI) 416
(IE) 373
Loan Approval (IE) 161; (WT) 166
Agriculture Loan Balances (TAI) 74
Blood Sample from Cattle (WT) 319 Loan Defaults (YDI) 267–268
Dairy Farming (YDI) 267 Manager Tracking Bank Transactions (YDI) 267
Food-Safety Inspectors Visiting Dairy Farms (TAI) 331 Mortgage Loan Defaults (WT) 161–161
Grain Produced per Acre (CO) 736 On Time Loan Repayment (IE) 166–167
Wheat Trials (IE) 737–742, 744–754; (TAI) 763 Profit for a Bank (IE) 374–375
Size of Credit Card Transactions (IE) 321–322
Subprime Mortgages (4M) 646–650; (AE) 651–653
Automotive
Auto Dealer Attending Car Auctions (TAI) 592 Business (General)
Residual Car Values (4M) 665
Base Price and Horsepower of Cars (YDI) 525–526, 593, 627, Auto Dealer (TAI) 173
663–664, 699–700, 732–733 Bookstore (YD I) 804
Buying Tires at an Auto Service Center (WT) 205; (IE) 212 Catalog Sales Companies (TAI) 387
Car Theft (4M) 86–88; (AE) 98 Clothing Buyer for a Chain of Department Stores (TAI) 386
Cars in 1989 (4M) 555 Company Free Giveaways (IE) 207–208
Customer Options When Ordering a New Car (YDI) 198 Company Stocking Shelves in Supermarkets (YDI) 416, 422
xxi

xxii INDEX OF APPLICATIONS
Customer Focus (4M) 19 Convenience Store Shopper Choosing Food (TAI) 173; (WT)
Data-driven Culture (TAI) 45 231–232
Display Space (TAI) 765 Cost of Diamonds (IE) 271–272, 499, 503–504; (YDI) 730
Employee Absences (YDI) 48 Customer Preferences of a New Product (TAI) 102
Employee Drug Testing (TAI) 197–198 Customer Rating a Power Tool (TAI) 591
Fast-Food Restaurant Chains (YDI) 176, 177; (WT) 253 Customer Satisfaction with Calls to Customer Service (CO) 156;
Forecasting Profits (4M) 787–790; (AE) 794–795 (IE) 157–159; (BP) 169; (TAI) 172–173; (YDI) 175, 200
Gross Profit (YDI) 804 Diamond Ring Prices (YDI) 523–524, 592, 625
Growth Industries (4M) 49–50 Drive Preferences (YDI) 135
Large Company Correlation (IE) 126–127 Emerald Diamonds (YDI) 730
Mail-Order Catalog (TAI) 74 Estimating Consumption (4M) 504–506; (AE) 514–516
Multinational Retail Company (TAI) 523 Gasoline Prices (4M) 805–806
Optimal Pricing (4M) 543–545; (AE) 546–548; (BTM) 550 Gasoline Sales (YDI) 104
Price and Weights of Diamonds (WT) 114; (TAI) 134, 591; Gold Chain Prices (YDI) 661, 698
(CO) 498; (IE) 499–504, 507–509, 529, 576 Guest Satisfaction (4M) 332
Price Scanners at Check-Out Registers (TAI) 76 Lease Costs (4M) 511–512; (AE) 517–518
Reams of Paper Used in an Office (YDI) 220 Pant Choices at a Clothing Store (TAI) 173
Repairing an Office Machine (YDI) 221 Purchasing Habits (TAI) 45
Restaurant Chain Choosing a Location (CO) 630 Rating Hotel Chains (TAI) 23
Revenue Generated by Individual Sales Representatives (TAI) Spending at a Convenience Store (TAI) 45; (YDI) 524, 592,
727–728 625–626, 661–662, 698, 730
Sales by Day of the Week (TAI) 74
Shopping Mall Environment (TAI) 74 Demographics
Start-Up Company (TAI) 24, 48
Supermarket Scanner Data (4M) 200 Ages of Shoppers (TAI) 75
Technology Businesses Moving Corporate Headquarters near a Heights of Students (TAI) 74
Mall (WT) 639 Number of Children of Shoppers in a Toy Store (TAI) 75
Value of New Orders for Computers and Electronics (WT) 772
Women-Owned Businesses (YDI) 48 Distribution and Operations Management
Assembly Line Production (TAI) 358
Company Names Book Shipments to University Bookstores (YDI) 388
Apple (TAI) 45 Cost of Building Cars at Plants (TAI) 728
Amazon (CO) 26; (IE) 27, 32, 38; (P) 40 Customized Milling Operation (TAI) 523
Bike Addicts (CO) 10; (IE) 12, 14, 17, 22 Delivery Stops for a Freight Company (YDI) 247
Dell Revenue and Inventories (TAI) 800–801 Efficiency of Automated Factories (TAI) 728
Facebook 176 Forecasting Inventory Levels at Wal-Mart (YDI) 803, 804
Ford (WT) 326 Importer of Electronic Goods (YDI) 417
Intel (IE) 772 Imports (YDI) 803–804
L.L. Bean (TAI) 387 Maintenance Staff of a Large Office Building (YDI) 220
Levi Strauss (IE) 18 Managing Inventories (SA) 491–493
Lockheed Martin (IE) 35 Number of Employees and Items Produced (TAI) 134
Netflix (TAI) 44–45 Operating Margin of a National Motel Chain (TAI) 661
Target (CO) 10; (4M) 125; (YDI) 552–553 Overnight Shipping Firm (YDI) 763–764
Wal-Mart (CO) 10, 703; (4M) 451–452; (IE) 15, 17, 18, 125, 151, Package Delivery Service and Fuel Costs (TAI) 523
320, 703, 715; (SA) 491; (YDI) 552, 804 Packages Processed by Federal Express (TAI) 75
Packaging Types (SA) 491–495; (QT) 495–496
Performance of Two Shipping Services (IE) 89–90
Construction
Planning Operating Costs (4M) 249–250
City Building a New Public Parking Garage (YDI) 387 Production Costs (YDI) 524–525, 592–593, 626, 662, 698, 731
Construction Estimates (4M) 240–241; (AE) 242 Production Line Filling Bottles (TAI) 358
Construction Firm Bidding on a Contract (YDI) 219, 248 Production Time and Number of Units (WT) 505–506
Contractor Building Homes in a Suburban Development (TAI) Seasonal Component of Computer Shipments (IE) 770–771
295 Shipping Companies (YDI) 450
Contractor Replaces Windows and Siding in Suburban Homes Shipping Computer Systems (TAI) 103
(WT) 639, 643 State of a Production Line (IE) 340–343, 345–346
Cost of Building an Elementary School (TAI) 523 Value of Shipments of Computers and Electronics (CO) 768; (IE)
Housing Permits and Construction (YDI) 804–805 770–771, 773–775, 778–784; (TAI) 800
Kitchen Remodeling (TAI) 246 Windows Shipped Daily (IE) 212–213
Wine Exports (IE) 33–34
Consumers
E-Commerce
Bargain on Blouses (YDI) 199
Buying a Laptop (YDI) 176 A/B Testing of Web Site Design (IE) 428–429
Buying Running Shoes (TAI) 174 Click fraud (YDI) 389
Cell Phone Subscribers (4M) 614–615; (AE) 620–621; (YDI) 802 Filtering Junk Mail (4M) 193–194; (CO) 391; (IE) 392–393, 402;
Choices for Paint Colors and Finishes at a Hardware Store (TAI) (TAI) 416
103–104 Internet Ad Spending (CO) 26

INDEX OF APPLICATIONS xxiii
Internet Browsers (YDI) 49 Finance and Investments

Internet Hosts (IE) 28–30, 32; (P) 40
Apple Stock (YDI) 222, 526–527, 594, 628, 665, 701
Monitoring an E-mail system (4M) 360
Bond Ratings (TAI) 103
Recipe Source (IE) 33
Calendar Effects on Stocks (4M) 767
Web Purchases (4M) 50; (TAI) 266, 416
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CO) 667; (IE) 668–669; (TAI) 697;
Web Hits (YDI) 360; (AE) 474–476
(4M) 594–595
Web Site Monitoring the Number of Customer Visits (TAI)
Cash or Credit Card (YDI) 137, 268
762–763
Climate Change (4M) 577–580; (AE) 583–586
Web Site of a Photo Processor (TAI) 359
Comparing Returns on Investments (4M) 406–408
Web Site to Take Photography Lessons (TAI) 799
Continuous Compound Interest (BTM) 489
Web Site Visitors Clicking on an Ad (TAI) 174
Credit Rating Agency (TAI) 173
Credit Risk (4M) 766–767
Economics Credit Scores (4M) 79, 223
Consumer Sentiment and Inflation (TAI) 134 Day Trading (CO) 202; (WT) 214
Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate (IE) 229, 374 Defaults on Corporate Bonds (SA) 485
Economic Time Series (4M) 24 Disney Stock (YDI) 222
Estimating the Rise of Prices (4M) 324–326 Disposable Income and Household Credit Debt (TAI) 696
Exchange Rate (YDI) 220, 221; (4M) 229–230 Enron Stock Prices (SA) 140–145
Expectations for the Economy (IE) 485 Exxon Stock (YDI) 802
Forecasting Unemployment (4M) 784–787; (AE) 793–794 Familiar Stock (YDI) 78
Gross Domestic Product (IE) 394–395 FICO Score (YDI) 105
Housing and Stocks (YDI) 135 Financial Ratios (4M) 78
Macro Economics (YDI) 137–138 Fraud Detection (4M) 201; (AE) 473–474
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (TAI) General Motors Stock Return (TAI) 294
133; (YDI) 526, 593, 627; (IE) 394 Hedge Funds (YDI) 296
Seasonally Adjusted Civilian Unemployment Rate (YDI) 802 High-Frequency Data (4M) 595
U.S. Gross National Product (TAI) 799 Historical Monthly Gross Returns of Stocks and Treasury Bills
(SA) 304–305
Education Holdings of U.S. Treasury Bonds (TAI) 44
Household Credit Market Debt (TAI) 799–800
Annual Tuition of Undergraduate Business Schools (TAI) 76–77 Household Incomes (TAI) 74, 75; (4M) 297
College Attended by CEOs (TAI) 46 IBM Stock (IE) 206, 208–209, 225–227, 230–231, 233–234,
College Graduate Debt (TAI) 198 236–238; (AE) 411–412; (AD) 217, 244–245
Education and Income (CO) 179 Investing in Stock (YDI) 219
High/Scope Perry Preschool Project (YDI) 389 Investment Risk (SA) 298
Letter Grades (IE) 39 IRA (TAI) 23
Multiple Choice Quiz (YDI) 176 Loan Status (TAI) 102
Public College Tuition (WT) 65 McDonalds Stock (IE) 214
SAT and Normality (4M) 277–279; (AE) 288 Microsoft Stock (IE) 225–227, 230–231, 233–234, 237, 239; (AD)
SAT Scores (TAI) 294 244–245
Test Scores (IE) 66 Monthly Prices of Shares in JCPenny (YDI) 802–803
Normality of Stock Returns (4M) 296–297
Energy Pfizer Stock (QT) 146–147
Quality Control of Finance Data (4M) 360–361
Annual Use of Natural Gas per Household (CO) 109; (WT) 120;
Real Money (4M) 249
(IE) 120–121
Sony Stock (IE) 668–678; (TAI) 697
Daylight Savings Time and Reducing Energy Consumption (TAI)
Startup Technology Companies (YDI) 268
449
Stock Exchanges (CO) 224
Electricity Supplied to Residences (TAI) 294
Stock Market (IE) 66, 271–272, 275, 303; (4M) 138; (TAI) 591
Energy Policy Act (TAI) 76
Stock Returns (SA) 142–145
Heating Degree Days (IE) 110–117, 121–122
Student Budget (YDI) 247
Lighting Efficiency (TAI) 44
Student Loan Debt (TAI) 198
Natural Gas and Electricity Use (YDI) 248
Tech Stocks (YDI) 78
Steel Mill Monitoring Energy Costs (TAI) 697
Value at Risk (4M) 281–282; (AE) 289; (YDI) 295–296; (SA) 145
U.S. Department of Energy (IE) 18, 130
Whole Stock Market and S&P 500 (TAI) 696
Environment
Food/Drink
Arctic Ice (YDI) 802
Artificial Sweetener (YDI) 47–48, 763
Carbon Dioxide Emissions (YDI) 138–139
Bread Volume (YDI) 764–765
Hurricane Bond (YDI) 296
Chocolate Snacks (YDI) 48–49
Hurricane Katrina (IE) 4, 5, 6–7
Fast Food Restaurant Customers (YDI) 247
January Average Temperatures (CO) 109
Food and Drug Administration Vetoing Name Choices
Polluting a Local River System (TAI) 415
(YDI) 268
Temperature (IE) 13
Frozen Food Package Weight (IE) 347–348
Weather at a Beachside Vacation Resort (TAI) 174
Gourmet Steaks (TAI) 295
Weather Forecasts (4M) 628–629; (YDI) 664, 700
Low-Calorie Sports Drink (YDI) 417

xxiv INDEX OF APPLICATIONS
M&Ms (IE) 58; (AE) 69; (TAI) 74; (YDI) 175; (SA) 306–309; Insurance Salesman (YDI) 221
(4M) 55–56 Life Insurance Benefits (IE) 122–123
Package Weights of M&Ms (SA) 310–311; (QT) 312 Selling Life and Auto Insurance (YDI) 247
Take-Out Food at a Local Pizzeria (YDI) 388 Stock Market Insurance (CO) 270
Taste Test (TAI) 267, 331; (IE) 437
Weights of Cereal Boxes (IE) 280 Labor
Wine (YDI) 449, 553, 733
Absent Employees (YDI) 199
Assembly Line Workers Missing Work (YDI) 102
Games
Civilian Unemployment Rate (IE) 17
Arcade Game (TAI) 219 Days Employees Were Out Sick (WT) 56
Dice Game (SA) 298–304; (QT) 305 Predicting Employment (IE) 4–7
Fair Coin (TAI) 415; (WT) 253 Tornado insurance (WT) 253
Fair Game (TAI) 219 Worker Productivity (TAI) 523
Game Consoles (YDI) 49 Workforce by Gender (YDI) 199
Lotteries (TAI) 219
Lucky Ducks Carnival Game (WT) 208 Law
Online Poker (YDI) 247
Slot Machine (QT) 305 Jury Trial (TAI) 415–416
Video Game Previewed by Teenagers (TAI) 24 Law Firm (YDI) 219–220
Law Suit against Wal-Mart (CO) 703–704; (4M) 451–452
Government
Management
Political Candidate Anxious about the Outcome of an Election
(TAI) 386 Analyzing the Performance of a Fast-Food Chain (TAI) 658
Political Poll (4M) 379–380 Average Amount of a Purchase Order (WT) 371
Property Taxes (4M) 378–379; (AE) 381–382 Business Offering Free Fitness Center Membership to Staff
Sales Tax (TAI) 75, 133 (TAI) 448
Tax Audits (4M) 333 Employee Confidence in Senior Management (YDI) 389
Top Government Research Priority (YDI) 47 Management of a Chain of Hotels (YDI) 417
Travel Expenses for Staff (WT) 637 Management Presentation (WT) 33
Management Tracking Growth of Sales versus Number of Outlets
(TAI) 625
Human Resource Management/Personnel
Manager Predicting Sales (TAI) 799
Average Age of MBAs Hired (TAI) 386 Managers with an MBA (YDI) 198
Businesses Planning to Hire Additional Employees Managing a Process (4M) 167–168; (IE) 167–168
(TAI) 386 Project Management (4M) 222–223
Calls Handled at a Corporate Call Center (BP) 68 Sales Force Comparison (4M) 438–440; (TAI) 449
Correlation between Employee Absent from Year to Year (TAI) Supervising Experimental Projects (TAI) 267
133 Supervisors Tracking the Output of a Plant (TAI) 625
Dexterity Testing and Hiring People for a Factory Assembly Line
(YDI) 449 Manufacturing
Direct Sales Team (YDI) 199
Discrimination in Hiring (4M) 107 Appliance Assembly (YDI) 199
Employee Experience 175 Assembly Line (YDI) 175
Employee Testing (YDI) 135 Canadian Paper Manufacturer (TAI) 23
Employees Interested in Joining a Union (TAI) 697 Car Manufacturer (TAI) 23–24, 332
Employment in Four Industries (YDI) 105 Making M&Ms (4M) 55–56
Evaluating the Performance of New Hires (TAI) 658, 664 Printer Manufacturing (YDI) 220–221
Headhunters (YDI) 418 Tire Manufacturer (YDI) 296
Hiring (YDI) 526, 593–594, 627, 664, 700–701, 733
Hiring Engineering Graduates Who Speak a Foreign Language Marketing
(TAI) 173 Age, Income and Product Rating (TAI) 658–659, 697; (IE)
Home-Based Operator (YDI) 176 681–682
Outsourcing High-Level White Collar Jobs (YDI) 49 Analysis of Car Buyers (YDI) 418
Personality Test (TAI) 416 Coupons expiring 765
Predicting Success of Candidates (TAI) 658 Coupons Increasing Sales (TAI) 103
Reasons for Missing Work (TAI) 102 Launching a Product (IE) 214
Reducing Turnover Rates (4M) 419; (YDI) 450 Locating a New Store (4M) 125–126; (AE) 128
Sex Discrimination in the Workplace (4M) 451–452 Loyalty Programs (YDI) 417
Training Program (YDI) 248; (WT) 729–730; (TAI) 664 Mailing List (WT) 88, 94; (4M) 418
Market Analyst (TAI) 175
Insurance Market Segmentation (4M) 678–682; (AE) 688–691
Auto Insurance Premiums (TAI) 75 Market Share for Artificial Sweeteners (YDI) 47–48
Comparing Average Sales of an Insurance Company (YDI) 764 Marketing Courier Paks (TAI) 729
Cost of Covering Auto Accidents (TAI) 246 Marketing Team Designing a Promotional Web Page (WT) 431
Insurance Policies (TAI) 197, 198 Retailer Offering Scratch-Off Coupons (YDI) 176
Smartphone Sales (AE) 41; (YDI) 388–389

Another random document with
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She made a swift movement—then seemed checked by a vision of its
futility. The other door closed quietly and heavily. Stripped of the pose that
served her for strength, the vanity which served her for modesty, Barbara
sat in the leather chair which Ted had abandoned and let her ugly
imaginings consume her.
CHAPTER XXI
WALTER’S SOLUTION
T HE Thorstads had not gone back to Mohawk. Mrs. Thorstad had said
that she would stay in St. Pierre until they heard further from Freda and
since it was the school vacation her husband had agreed. After the first
shock of disappearance they had accepted Freda’s letter at its face value and
decided to wait for news from her. It was all they could do, in fact. One
alternative, publicity, advertising her disappearance, would have done only
harm and have looked cruelly unnecessary in view of her farewell letter to
her father. The other alternative, setting private detectives to work, would
have been too expensive and again her letters did not justify that. They must
wait. Mrs. Thorstad, after a bit, did not brood, nor indeed appear to worry
greatly. She was quickly allied with clubdom and petty politics and was
busy. Her husband, trying to interest himself in stray free lectures at the
University and in the second hand bookstores, grew rather pallid and thin.
They stopped at an inexpensive boarding house on the West Side. It was
a place of adequate food, adequate cleanliness and no grace. Mrs.
Thorstad’s reputation as a prominent club woman stood her in good stead in
these rather constricted surroundings where most of the guests were men of
sapped masculinity, high busted women dividing their time between small
shopping and moving pictures. The men were persons of petty importance
and men of small independence, but there was one strangely incongruous
person in the company. He was the editor of the scandal paper of the city, a
thin, elderly, eye-glassed person of fifty, who had maintained, in spite of his
scavenging for scandals, some strange insistence on and delight in his own
respectability. He was personally so polite, so gentlemanly, so apparently
innocuous that it was almost incredible to think of him as the editor of the
sheet which sold itself so completely on the strength of its scandal that it
needed no advertising to float its circulation.
There was a natural attraction between him and Adeline Thorstad. They
had mutually a flare for politics and intense personal prejudices
complicating that instinctive liking. They often ran upon the same moral
catch words in their conversation. Robinson began to be a “booster” for
Mrs. Thorstad. He saw her political possibilities and commenced to call
attention to her here and there in his columns.
It was one of Mr. Thorstad’s few occasions of protest.
“Shall you tell him to keep your name out of his paper or shall I?”
“But he’s said nothing that isn’t awfully friendly, Eric. I hate to hurt his
feelings. I’m sure he meant to be kind.”
“You don’t want to be featured in ‘The Town Reporter,’ Adeline. It
doesn’t—it isn’t right.”
She let the stubborn lines settle over her face.
“I don’t think the ‘Town Reporter’ is as corrupt as almost any of the
others.”
“Look at the stuff it prints!”
“But, my dear, if it’s true, isn’t there a kind of courage in printing it?”
He looked at her in exasperation, measuring her and his own futility.
“So you want to let that go?”
“I think it’s better not to hurt him, Eric.”
He shut the door of their room sharply and yet when she saw him again
he had regained his quiet indifference to her doings. The friendship between
her and the editor continued to flourish.
They were in the dining-room on Tuesday, the third of August, when the
morning papers were brought in. It was a sticky, hot, lifeless morning.
Halves of grapefruit tipped wearily on the warmish plates. No one spoke
much. The head of the silk department in Green’s was hurrying through his
breakfast in order to get down to inspect the window trim. The stenographer
at Bailey and Marshall’s had slipped into her place. Mrs. Thorstad was alert
determinedly, Mr. Thorstad sagging a little beside her. Robinson picked up
his paper first, casually, and uttered a low whistle.
“That’s a bit of news,” he said.
Several people craned and reached for the papers they had been too
indolent to open. A headline ran across the page.
PROMINENT CLUBMAN KILLS HIMSELF IN
FASHIONABLE CLUB
WALTER GRANGE CARPENTER, CAPITALIST, SHOOTS SELF

FATALLY IN EARLY MORNING HOURS. CAUSE
OF SUICIDE MYSTERY.
They gathered around the news without a particle of sympathy. No one
cared. He was a mystery and sensation—that was all.
“Funny thing,” said Robinson. “I wonder what was at the bottom of
that.”
“I shouldn’t be surprised if it was the Duffield girl,” Mrs. Thorstad said
rather casually.
“Who was that?”
“You know—the political organizer who was sent here for the
Republican women.”
“Was Carpenter in love with her?”
“I think so. I saw him—well, perhaps I shouldn’t say—”
Robinson gave her a keen glance and let the matter drop. But that night
after dinner he sought her out again, segregating her from the rest of the
people. Mr. Thorstad was not there.
“What was it you were saying about that Miss Duffield?”
She hedged a little.
“Oh, I don’t like to talk scandal, Mr. Robinson. I’m no gossip. I never
liked the woman. I always believed she made a great deal of trouble and I
know she was not a good influence on my daughter. But I have no wish to
malign her. If she is responsible for this tragedy, she and her free love
doctrines have indeed wrought havoc—”
She paused abruptly.
“I wish you’d tell me what you know,” said Robinson. “I’ll confide in
you, Mrs. Thorstad. I heard from a certain source to-day that Carpenter left
this Duffield women everything he possessed. Every one seems to know
they were seen around town constantly until she went away. There seems to
have been considerable expectation that they would marry—surprise that
they did not. Well—you can see that any information added—”
“But what good would it do?” She pressed him, her utilitarian little mind
anxious for results.
“I’d rather like to know why Carpenter shot himself. So would other
people. If this woman is a menace she should be exposed.”
“She should indeed. An interloper, making trouble, trying to run politics
—”
He surveyed her amusedly, familiar with outbreaks of spite, waiting for
his point to win itself.
“You knew her well.”
“I worked with her closely. A brilliant person—clever, modern. Modern
in the way that these Eastern young women are modern. I did not approve
of many things she did. I did not approve of some of the things she said.
Then there was an incident which convinced me.”
She went on, a little deft prodding keeping her in motion, telling the
story of having seen Walter Carpenter come to Margaret’s room and of
having seen the letter from Gregory with its protestation that he must see
her, that he wanted “to unloose her emotions—not fetter her in marriage.”
How those words had imprinted themselves on Mrs. Thorstad’s mind!
There was great satisfaction in Robinson’s face.
“And this Gregory?”
She had thought that out too.
“Why it must have been that Gregory Macmillan. He came here later and
she talked of knowing him. I heard Mrs. Flandon speak of it.”
“Ah, the Sinn Feiner! Why, it’s perfect.”
She had a moment of fearful doubt.
“You wouldn’t quote me? There’d be no libel—?”
“My dear lady, I’ve no money to spend on libel suits. I’ll never get
mixed up in one. Every bit of my stuff is looked over by a lawyer before it
sees the light of print. Don’t you worry. I’d never implicate a lady.
Scourging a vampire”—he fell into his grandiloquent press language again
—“is an entirely different matter.”
“There’s such a thing as justice,” said Mrs. Thorstad bridling.
He nodded with gravity. They might have been, from their appearance,
two kindly middle-aged persons discussing a kindly principle, so well did
their faces deceive their minds.
So it happened that the next issue of the ‘Town Reporter’ carried in its
headlines on the following day—
WAS MYSTERY OF SUICIDE OF RICH CLUBMAN ENTANGLED
IN FREE LOVE PROBLEM?
There followed an article of subtle insinuation written by the hand of an

adept. It crept around the edge of libel, telling only the facts that every one
knew, but in such proximity that the train of thought must be complete—
that one who knew anything of the people implicated could see that
Margaret Duffield (never named) believer in all “doctrines of free madness”
had “perhaps preyed upon the soul of the man.” And then after a little the
“Sinn Feiner” came into the article, he too coming from groups who knew
no “law but license.” Ugly intrigue—all of it—dragging its stain across the
corpse of Walter Carpenter.
The news had come to the Flandons at breakfast too. Gage had come
down first and picked up the newspaper while he was waiting for Helen and
the children. He read it at a glance and the blow made him a little dizzy.
Like a flood there came over him the quick sense of the utter blackness of
Walter’s mind—more than any sense of loss or pity came horror at the
baffled intellect which had caused the tragedy. He stood, reading,
moistening his lips as Helen entered and lifted the children to their chairs.
“Any news, Gage?”
He handed it to her silently.
“Oh, my God!” said Helen, “How terrible! How awful, Gage!”
He nodded and sat down in his chair, putting his head in his hands. She
read the article through.
“But why, do you suppose?”
Then she stopped, knowing the thought that must have come to him as it
came to her.
“Poor, poor Walter!”
She went around the table to Gage.
“You’ll go down of course, but take a cup of coffee first,” she said, her
hand on his shoulder.
He roused himself.
“All right.”
Some one telephoned for Gage and he said he would come at once to the
club. They went on with the form of breakfast. The children chattered. The
room shone with sunlight. Helen, through her shock and grief, caught a
glimpse of the shrinking of their trouble against this terrific final snuffing
out of life. Abashed at the comfort it gave her, she drew away from the
thought.
But it made her tender to Gage. It kept persisting, that thought. “It wasn’t
Gage. It might have been Gage. It might have been us. People like us do go
that far then. How horribly selfish this is. Poor Walter!” She suddenly
stopped short. She must telegraph Margaret. Margaret would have to know.
Whatever there had been between her and Carpenter, she must know.
Doubtless—perhaps—she would want to come to see him—Or would she?
She telegraphed Margaret as compassionately as possible. Yet it seemed
a little absurd to be too compassionate. Margaret wouldn’t like the shock
“broken.” She would want to know the facts.
The sun seemed brighter than it had been for days. Despite the grave
weight of sorrow on her spirit, Helen was calmed, attended by peace. She
was feeling the vast relief attendant on becoming absorbed in a trouble not
her own. It was not that her grief was not deep for Carpenter. He had been
Gage’s good friend and hers. And yet—it was almost as if in dying he had
deflected a tragedy from her, as if he had bought immunity for her with his
terrific price. She dared not tamper with the thought of what this might do
to Gage.
The mail man in his blue coat was coming up the steps. She opened the
door for him, anxious to do something, wondering if there would be a letter
from Margaret. There was. She laid the others aside and read that first. It
was a long letter full of thought, which at another time would have been
interesting. Margaret had wearied of Republicanism. She and many other
women were talking of the “League” again.
And Walter Carpenter lay dead. Was it relevant?
Helen put down the letter and looked through her others. There was one
from some hotel in Montana. She ripped it open and the first words startled
her so that she looked for the signature. It was signed by Freda Thorstad.
A swooning excitement came over Helen. She hardly dared read it.
Then, holding it crushed tightly, she went up to her own room. As she went
the children called to her. They wanted her to come and see the castle in the
sandbox.
“Soon,” she called to them, “I’ll be down soon. Mother’s busy—don’t
call me for a few minutes.”
She locked her door and read the letter. What had startled her was that
abrupt beginning “Asking for money is the hardest thing in the world—at
least nothing has ever been so hard before.” It went on “But I don’t know
what else to do, and I must do something. I can’t write any one else, partly
because no one else I know has enough money to send me and also because
I haven’t told any one except your husband about myself—and I suppose he
has told you. If he hasn’t he’ll tell you now that it is the truth. It’s this way.
My husband has been terribly sick and what money he had was stolen while
he was at the hotel before I got here. He’s still weak and of course he wants
to go home. But I haven’t dared tell him we haven’t any money because he
doesn’t know the maid picked his pockets while he was ill. We have to get
away from the hospital now that he’s well enough to travel—we don’t know
anybody in the city and there are his hospital bills to pay. The doctor told
me he would wait, but I can’t ask the nurses to do that. It seems almost
ridiculous for an able bodied person to be asking for money but we owe so
much more than I can earn that I must borrow. There doesn’t seem to be any
way to get money sometimes except by borrowing. I know I could pay it
back as soon as Gregory gets well again. I suppose you’ll wonder why I
don’t ask father. Well—he hasn’t as much money as we need. We need
nearly six hundred dollars to take Gregory to Ireland and pay the bills here.
Perhaps it would be better to get it from Gregory’s friends in Ireland. But I
know from what he’s told me that they all are trying so hard to do things for
the country with what little money they have that it would worry him to ask
them. And it would take too long. He mustn’t be worried, the doctors say,
and he must get back to his home soon. You know something about him for
I remember that I saw you at his lecture. He is really very wonderful and....
It isn’t as if I had a right to ask you either, except perhaps a kind of human
right.... You’ve been so kind to me, you and Mr. Flandon....”
Helen finished the letter with a rueful, very tired smile. Then she took it
into Gage’s room and laid it on his bureau where he would see it, when he
came in. He telephoned at noon to tell her that he was coming out; she kept
out of the way so that he would read the letter before she saw him.
He brought it to her and gave it back, folded.
“I suppose I should have told you that business but it was the girl’s
secret. She didn’t want it known and I stumbled on it.”
“I see,” she answered, inadequately.
“Looks like a bad situation for them, doesn’t it? I didn’t know, by the
way, where she had gone. I assumed she had gone to join him but I did
think Sable had driven her to do it. Evidently he sent for her.”
“And he nearly died.”
They paused in embarrassment. Helen held herself tautly.
“There’s an apology due you,” she began.
He held his hand out, deprecating it.
“No, please—you had every reason.” He changed the subject abruptly.
“Do we let her have the money?” He smiled for a minute. “Money’s
tight as hell. I haven’t got much in cash you know. But I don’t see how we
can refuse the girl.”
“We won’t,” said Helen.
“By the way, what I came out to say was that Walter’s lawyer thinks we
should send for Margaret Duffield. There’s a rumor that she is his legatee.
He had no family—his mother died last year. From what Pratt said he left it
all to Margaret. She’ll be rich.”
“I did wire her,” answered Helen, “an hour ago. I thought she ought to
know.”
“That’s good.”
“Tell me about it.”
“It was all in the paper. He shot himself a little after midnight. He was
alone in his room. It was evidently quite premeditated. There was a sealed
letter for his lawyer with instructions undoubtedly and everything was in
perfect order. He—he had simply decided to do it. And he has done it.
Something made him lie down—that’s all.”
He spoke reflectively, with a degree of abstraction that was surprising.
“Why do they think he did it?”
“Heat—not well physically. That’s what goes to the papers. Better
spread that. If the girl is involved, we’ll keep her name clear.”
“Oh, yes.”
“For Walter’s sake,” Gage went on. And then very slowly, he added, “I
wouldn’t like people to know that she got him.”
“Yet if it comes out that he left her everything, won’t people guess?”
“They won’t know. Nor do we know. Nobody knows except Walter and
he’s dead.”
They sent a second wire to Margaret requesting her presence for urgent
reasons and by night they had heard that she would come. The funeral was
to be on Friday.
It was Thursday evening when the “Town Reporter” bristled with ugly
headlines on the streets of St. Pierre. Walter’s body lay in the undertaking
“parlors” those ineffective substitutes for homes for those who die
homeless, in the brief period between their last hours among human kind
and the grave. No place except a home can indeed truly shelter the dead.
Walter lay inscrutably lonely, in the public parlor, mysterious in the death
which was a refusal to go on with life, a relinquishment so brave and so
cowardly that it always shocks observers into awe. As he lay there, a
raucous voiced newsboy outside the window ran down toward the main
throughfare, a bunch of “Town Reporters” under his arm, shouting, “All the
noos about the sooicide”—and in half an hour his papers were gone, some
bought openly, some bought hurriedly and shamefacedly. Hundreds of
people now knew the reason Elihu Robinson gave for the death of Walter
Carpenter, his version of the struggle in the stilled brain of the man he had
not known except by sight and hundreds of people as intimate with the
tragedy as he, wagged their heads and said wisely that this “was about the
truth of it,” with other and sundry comments on the corruption of the age
and particularly of the rich.
The Flandons read it with mixed disgust and anger. They knew it was the
kind of stain that only time could scrub away. It did not matter much to
Walter now that he was slandered. His suicide was a defiance of slander.
They were sorry for Margaret but not too much bothered by her reception of
such scandal if it came to her. It was only local scandal.
“The worst of it,” said Helen to Gage, “is tying Gregory Macmillan up
that way just as they were about to announce his marriage. I telephoned
Freda’s father this afternoon for I was going to tell him you had had a
business letter from her and knew where she was. It seemed wise. But
anyway he had just heard from her too. He was so happy, poor fellow. Now
to have this nasty scandal about his son-in-law will be another blow. I shall
go to see him and tell him that it’s an utter lie. I know from what Margaret
told me that there never was a thing between her and Macmillan.”
Mr. Thorstad had already taken the matter up with Elihu Robinson. He
had called him what he was and his white faced indignation was something
the editor preferred to submit to without resistance. But he was not without
trumps as usual.
“But who is your authority for saying that Macmillan was implicated
with this lady?” asked Mr. Thorstad, angrily.
He had not told that Macmillan was his son-in-law and the editor
wondered at his defense of Macmillan.
“My dear fellow,” he said with that touch of apologetic and righteous
concern with which he always met such attacks. “My dear fellow, your wife
told me that.”
CHAPTER XXII
THE MOURNERS
M ARGARET came, calm and yet clearly distressed beyond measure. It

was pathetic to see her control, to see that she could not even break
through it to the relief of abandonment. She was very white during the
day of the funeral and the ones succeeding it and her eyes met other eyes
somewhat reluctantly. She came on Friday morning and Helen had not been
able to persuade her to stay with them. She had gone to a hotel and from
there, quite simply to the parlors of the undertakers.
“Don’t wait for me, Helen—and I’d sooner be alone. I’ll be here a long
while, probably.”
Perhaps after all Walter and Margaret found relief in each other when the
grim parlor door was shut. At least at the funeral Margaret sat very quietly,
though the well-bred curious eyes of the little group of people strayed
unceasingly toward her. She went through it as she went through the
following days. It was soon known, before the will was probated, that she
was Walter’s legatee. There was a great deal of business to be done. Walter
had decided no doubt that the brief embarrassment of inheriting his fortune
was better than the recurrent fear of cramping poverty which had always
pursued her and of which she had told him. She saw the lawyers and his
business associates and discussed with them the best way of disposing of
Walter’s interests, and word of her coldness spread around rather quickly
and was considered to justify Mr. Robinson’s deductions.
Gage saw her at the funeral. He had not looked for her—had not felt
ready to see her. But in the semicircle of chairs facing the gray satin coffin,
he was so placed that his eyes met hers unexpectedly. When they did,
hostility glinted in his. “You got him,” they seemed to say—and hers looked
back steady, unrepentant, even though her mouth was drawn with pain and
sorrow.
It had hit Gage as it had Helen. The lightning had been drawn from him.
Walter’s death had roused in him an instinct of resistance which had been
dormant. He had no certain idea of what had passed between Walter and
Margaret but he knew what Carpenter’s point of view had been—how far
he had gone, how willing he had been to yield every concession to a woman
—to Margaret—in the belief that it would then be possible to build love on
a basis of comradeship. Walter had found failure, just how or why no one
knew except perhaps Margaret herself. Gage’s mind stumbled along
nervously, trying to analyze his and Walter’s failure. He remembered how
they had talked together about women, how Walter had said he would be
“willing to trust to their terms.” For some reason he lay dead of their terms.
And he himself—he had looked at himself in the glass an hour ago with a
kind of horror as if he saw himself for the first time in weeks. There was a
softening of his features it seemed to him, a look of dissipation, of
untrimmed thought, brooding. The memory of his face haunted him. That
was what came of being unwilling to trust to the terms of women. Either
way—
He looked across at Margaret again, quiet, firm, persistent through
tragedy, through all emotional upheaval, and a grim admiration shot
through his hostility. After all she was consistent. With all his admiration
for women, even at the height of his passion for Helen, he had never
connected her or any woman with ability to follow a line of action with
such consistency. He had some sense of what was going on in Margaret’s
mind—an apperception of her refusal to let this tragedy break her down.
He became conscious of Helen’s sigh. She sat beside him, her hands
folded loosely in her lap. The minister talked on, performing with decent
civility and entanglement of phrase, the rites of last courtesy for the dead.
Gage wondered what he and Helen would do. He was glad that the mess
about Freda Thorstad was cleared up. Not that it made any grave difference
except in a certain clearness of atmosphere. If she got a divorce she couldn’t
get it on those grounds. He wondered how their painfully sore minds could
be explained in a divorce court which was accustomed to dealing with
brutal incidents. Perhaps a separation would be better. He wondered how he
was going to provide for her decently. It was going to be a long job building
up the new practice. Things were breaking badly.
Some emphatic phrase of the minister, starting out of his droning talk,
brought Gage’s eyes back to the coffin. Strange how the sense of that silent
form within it gave him fresh energy. Life had got Walter. Women had got
him, in some obscure way. He felt his shoulders straighten with stubborn
impulse. They wouldn’t get him. Deftly and logically his thought became
practical. He would cut out all this thinking about women. He would—
perhaps he would get the Thornton business. It meant a big retainer. He
could have done it a few months ago. Now—he visualized old Thornton’s
tight mouth, keen eyes. He’d want value received. Have to get in shape—
cut out the booze—concentrate on business—men’s business. The actual
phrase took shape in his mind. Men’s business. By God, that was how
women got you. They got you thinking about them until you became
obsessed, obsessed with them and their business. It was so and it had
always been so. These new problems were not what people thought they
were. They were not sex stuff. Perhaps they altered the grain of woman—
changed her—but the adjustment of sex was as it always had been, between
each man and each woman. Let the women go on, be what they wanted, do
what they wanted. It made some of them better, some of them worse—put
new figures in the dance but it was the same dance. Even if it wasn’t the
minuet or the waltz there was still dancing. And there was choosing of
partners.
Every one stood up. Gage was standing too, with the rest, his vagrant
thoughts brought back from their wanderings to the ever shocking
realization that he was helping in the laying away of this friend of his and
the inevitable feeling that life was a short business for him and every one.
He fell back into triteness. You must play the game.
After it was all over he was standing beside Helen.
“I want to go to see Margaret,” said Helen. “I’ll go to her hotel now,
Gage.”
“Bring her home if you like,” answered Gage.
The ease of his tone startled Helen. She looked at him in quick surprise,
meeting his unexpected smile.
“I merely meant I thought I could be reasonably civil,” he said—and
with impulse, “I feel rather cleaned out, Helen. I’ll run down town now and
see what I can do before dinner.”
She thought, “He hasn’t had anything to drink for two days,” placing the
responsibility for his unwonted pleasantness on a practical basis. It cheered
her. She went to Margaret’s hotel and found her in her room, lying on her
bed and her head buried in the counterpane. It was the nearest to
abandonment that Helen had ever seen in her friend so she ventured to try
to comfort.
“It’s the awful blackness of his mind that I can’t bear,” said Margaret,
“the feeling he must have had that there was no way out.” She sat up and
looked at Helen somewhat wildly. “It frightens me too. For he had such a
good mind. He saw things straight. Perhaps there isn’t any way out. Perhaps
we are battering our heads against life and each other like helpless fools.”
“Did you love him?” asked Helen. It seemed to her the only vital point
just then.
Margaret threw her hands out futilely.
“I don’t know. I was afraid of what might happen if we married. Either
way it looked too dangerous. I was afraid of softening too much—of
lapsing into too much caring—or of not being able to care at all. He wasn’t
afraid—but I was. And—the rotten part is, Helen, that I wasn’t afraid for
him but for myself.”
She was hushed for a moment and then broke out again.
“It wasn’t for myself as myself. It was just that if our marriage hadn’t
been a miracle of success, it would have proved the case against women
again.”
“You mustn’t think any more than you can help,” said Helen. “It wasn’t
like Walter to want to cause you pain and I know he wouldn’t want you to
suffer now.”
“No, he was willing to do all the suffering,” said Margaret in bitter self-
mockery. “He did it too.”
She got hold of herself by one swift motion of her well-controlled mind
and stood up, brushing her hair back with the gesture Walter loved. “It’s not
your burden, poor girl. You have enough.”
“Not so many,” said Helen. “By the way, Margaret, you haven’t heard
about Freda Thorstad, have you?”
“Did she come back?”
“No—she wrote. She had married Gregory Macmillan secretly when he
was here. They sent her word that he had typhoid out West and she went to
him. Why she didn’t tell people is still a mystery.”
“Married him—Gregory? But she’d only known him four days.”
Helen nodded. “That’s just it. Isn’t it—” she stopped, fearing to wound.
“Magnificent—brave—foolish—” finished Margaret. Her voice broke
unaccustomedly. “It’s wonderful. Gregory will be a strange husband but if
she shares him with Ireland and—oh, it’s rather perfect. And so all that
nonsense about Gage being involved—”
“Was nonsense.”
Margaret did not ask further about Gage. She reverted to Freda and
Gregory. The news left her marveling, an envy that was wonder in her
remarks. She made no comparisons between Freda and herself and yet it
was clear that Freda wrought herself to another phase—a step on towards
some solution of thought.
Helen urged her to come to dinner.
“I’d rather not, I think. I’ll have a rest perhaps.”
“Then you’ll go out with us for a ride to-night?”
“Gage wouldn’t like it, would he?”
“He suggested your coming to dinner, my dear.”
They smiled at each other.
“Then I’ll go.” She turned swiftly to Helen. “Oh, work it out if you can,
Helen. Not working it out—is horrible.”
CHAPTER XXIII
RESPITE
F REDA was trying to mend a blouse. Her unskillful fingers pricked

themselves and it was obvious that even her laborious efforts could do
little to make the waist presentable. Its frayed cuffs were beyond
repairing. However, it would do until they got to Mohawk and she could get
the clothes which she had there. She had not written her mother to send her
anything. Nor had she spent any of the money the Flandons had sent for
such luxuries as new clothes. She had been uplifted when that check for a
thousand dollars—not for six hundred—had slipped out of the envelope
with Mrs. Flandon’s kind, congratulatory letter. Gregory’s three hundred
had been put back in his purse and then, as it gradually came over her
impractical mind that such a sum was totally inadequate to their need she
had told him that she had some money of her own—a little reserve which
had been sent to her. Naturally he had assumed her father had sent it and
later she thought she would tell him that it was a debt they had assumed and
make arrangements for paying it. Not now. He must not worry now about
the money. She looked across the room at him—their shabby little hotel
room, with its lace curtains pinned back for air and the shaky table desk
dragged up before the window. He had not been quite fit enough to travel
when they left the hospital, and she had insisted that he must try his strength
before they made the journey to Mohawk, the first lap on the way back to
Ireland. How eager he was to be off now—how impossible it was to check
him! She forgot the blouse and sat looking at him, sitting there unconscious
of her regard. His profile was outlined against the blank window opening,
still so thin, and yet so restored.
“It’s getting dark. You ought to stop now, Gregory. You’ll be worn out.”
He did not hear her. That was one of the things she had found out could
happen. Especially since this lot of mail had been forwarded from his
bureau, letters full of such terrible news for him from Ireland. His friends
were in prison—were killed. Devastation was spreading.
She rose, with a new air of maturity and crossed to him.
“It’s growing late.” This time she came behind his chair and bent her
cheek to his.
He moved absently.
“Yes, sweetheart—I’ll be soon through. I was writing to Larry’s widow,
poor girl. There seemed so much to say.”
“I know, but you must stop.” She used the appeal she had already
learned to use when he was bound to tax his fragile strength. “You’ll never
get back there unless you rest more.”
“Oh, yes I will. And when I do get back—how I’m going to start some
things in motion. It will be a terrible swift motion too. I’ve lost a sad
amount of time.”
Freda laughed and he looked at her. It was a laugh of pure amusement,
and so contagious that he joined her, jumping up from the letter to kiss her.
“No—you laughing rogue—not time lost in winning my bride. Mocker.”
Freda held him at arms length teasingly.
“I have you for a minute now, haven’t I?”
“You always have me. You don’t mind, darling, that they need me? You
wouldn’t—not share it with me?”
“Of course I share it. And I know I have you—when you remember me.”
He buried his lips in her hair and then drew her to his knees.
“Sweetheart, if you could know how they suffer—when you see—”
She composed herself to listen, knowing how it would be. He would
hold her close like this and tighter and tighter his arms would feel as he
explained and related. Then, in his excitement, he would loose her and
leave her, gently, while he paced up and down the room and forgot the
tenants in the next room and herself and everything in his impassioned
oratory.
So he was. That was Gregory. When he put her down she turned on the
light and picked up her sewing. It was not that she did not listen willingly.
She did. If she could not kindle in his flame she was warmed in the glow of
it. She too had come to care. Perhaps when they reached Ireland and she
saw for herself she would kindle too—she rather hoped so.
He stopped talking and his mind, relaxed, shot back to her.
“Do you feel well to-night, darling?”
“Of course. I’m the most indomitably healthy person you ever knew. I
can’t help it.”
“You’re so sweetly healthy that I keep forgetting to take care of you.”
She tossed the blouse from her restlessly and stretched her long arms
back of her head to make a cushion.
“It doesn’t bother me when you forget,” she told him. “I’m very glad
that it doesn’t, too. I’m glad I haven’t begun marriage by learning habits of
dependency. I think we’re rather lucky, Greg. Being us, as we are, with a
two day wedding trip and a crowning episode of typhoid and now a baby
and an Irish question ahead of us, we’ve learned how to stand alone. Mind
our own business instead of crowding into each other’s, you know.”
He did not know. A great deal of modern difficulty and problem making
had slipped by him. “You are an obscure young person,” he told her, “and
most divinely beautiful. I am going to get Francis Hart to paint you—like
that, with your head thrown back. I want a hundred paintings of you just to
compare with you, so that I can show that no painting can be as lovely as
you are.”
They spent a week in Mohawk and because Gregory found that Mr.
Thorstad knew Irish history with unexpected profundity and sympathy he
was content to spend much time with his father-in-law. They met on many
points, in the simplicity of their minds, the way they wound their thoughts
around simple philosophies instead of allowing the skeins of thought to
tangle—in the uncorrupted and untempted goodness of them both and their
fine appreciation of freedom—the freedom which in Mr. Thorstad had bade
his daughter seek life and in Gregory had tried to unloose the rigors of
Margaret Duffield. Gregory did not talk so much to Mrs. Thorstad. He was
apt, in the midst of some flight of hers, to look a little bewildered and then
become inattentive. She, however, took it for genius. The chastening which
she had suffered after that mistake of blackening Gregory’s name in
connection with Margaret had still some effect. She was anxious to wipe
that error out and to that end she worked very hard to establish the fame and
name of Gregory. His books were spread over the library table and she had
already, in characteristic method, started a book of clippings about him.
She spent a good deal of time with Freda. Freda was rather more gentle
than she had been, and interested honestly in many of the details of child
bearing that her mother dragged up from her memory on being questioned.
If Mrs. Thorstad felt disappointment in Freda, she tried very honestly to
conceal it but now and again there cropped out an involuntary trace of the
superiority which she as a modern woman was bound to feel over a
daughter who took so little interest in the progress of politics and listened so
much to her husband’s talk. She spoke of it once only and most tactfully.
“You must be careful not to be a reactionary, my dear. You are going
from the land of freedom and the land in which women are rising to every
dignity, to a country which may be—of course is bound to be—
comparatively unenlightened. I hope indeed that you have your children.
Two—or even three children—are very desirable. But you must not forget
that every woman owes a duty to herself in development and in keeping
abreast of the times which may not be neglected. I don’t want to hurt you,
dear. Of course I myself am perhaps a little exceptional in the breadth of my
outlook. But it is not personal ambition. It is for the sex. Did I tell you that
Mrs. Flandon talked to me when she saw me in St. Pierre about doing much
of the state organizing for the Republican women? She says she needs some
of my organizing ability. I shall help her of course. In fact I hope I may be
able to prevail upon your father to apply for a position at the University in
St. Pierre. I feel we have rather outgrown Mohawk.”
“But, mother, that means an instructorship again for father, and it’s a step
backward.”
“Not exactly that. Think of the advantages of living in the city—the
cultural advantages. And there is a great field open in municipal politics. I
have some strong friends there—and one gentleman—an editor—even went
so far as to say there might be a demand for me in public life in St. Pierre, if
I established residence there.”
“It would be pretty rough on father to pull up stakes here—”
The hint came again.
“My dear child, you must not be a reactionary. I do not like to see you
start out your married life with the idea of subordinating your life as an
individual to a husband, no matter how beloved he may be. It is not wise
and it is not necessary. Look back over our life. Have I ever for one moment
failed in my duty towards the home or towards my husband or child and has
it not been possible at the same time for me to keep progress before me

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Statistics for Business

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11 Probability Models for Counts 251

12 The Normal Probability Model 270

CASE: STATISTICS IN ACTION Managing Financial Risk 298

CASE: STATISTICS IN ACTION Modeling Sampling Variation 306

PART III Inference

14 Sampling Variation and Quality 334

15 Confidence Intervals 362

16 Statistical Tests 391

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16.4 Significance versus Importance 408

18 Inference for Counts 453

CASE: STATISTICS IN ACTION Rare Events 484

CASE: STATISTICS IN ACTION Data Mining Using Chi-Squared 491

PART IV Regression Models

20 Curved Patterns 528

21 The Simple Regression Model 557

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22 Regression Diagnostics 596

23 Multiple Regression 630

24 Building Regression Models 667

25 Categorical Explanatory Variables 703

26 Analysis of Variance 736

27 Time Series 768

CASE: STATISTICS IN ACTION Analyzing Experiments 807

CASE: STATISTICS IN ACTION Automated Modeling 815

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Appendix: Tables 823

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if you are familiar with these methods, we encourage Case Studies

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Prakash Mirchandani, University of Pittsburgh Omeed Selbe, University of Southern California

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■■ Personalized Learning: MyStatLab’s personal-

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Internet Browsers (YDI) 49 Finance and Investments

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WALTER GRANGE CARPENTER, CAPITALIST, SHOOTS SELF

There followed an article of subtle insinuation written by the hand of an

M ARGARET came, calm and yet clearly distressed beyond measure. It