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Eos, Vol. 89, No. 8, 19 February 2008
EOS, TRANSACTIONS, AMERICAN GEOPHYSICAL UNION
Earthquake Early Warning
Starts Nationwide in Japan
PAGES 73–74
When an earthquake occurs, a certain
amount of time elapses before destructive
seismic energy hits nearby population centers.
Though this time is measured on the order
of seconds, depending on the proximity of
the rupture to a given city or town, a new
public safety program in Japan is taking
advantage of the fact that seismic energy
travels slower than electronic communication.
In this program, the Japan Meteorological
Agency (JMA) rapidly determines the hypo-
center (earthquake epicenter and focal
depth) and magnitude of the earthquake by
using real-time data from stations near the
hypocenter. The distribution of strong ground
shaking is anticipated quickly, and then the
information is delivered immediately to gov-
ernment officials, representatives from various
industries, members of the news media, and
individuals before strong ground shaking
reaches them. For example, on receiving
the warning, the control room of a railway
company can send an emergency notice to
all train drivers to stop their trains immedi-
ately, elevators in buildings can be triggered
to stop at the nearest floor and open their
doors automatically, and surgeons can tem-
porarily suspend their surgical operations
to avoid risk to patients on operating tables.
This innovative new service, called Earth-
quake Early Warning (EEW), started nation-
wide in Japan and became fully operational
in October 2007. This service is definitely
different from earthquake prediction. Although
it is currently impossible to be aware of
earthquakes before their occurrence (earth-
quake prediction), EEW operates with the
assumption that it is possible to warn people
located at a certain distance from the hypo-
center before strong ground shaking reaches
them.
Even though the interval between the
delivery of EEWs and the time when strong
shaking reaches people is relatively short
(counted in seconds), EEWs can be a useful
and powerful tool for mitigating an earth-
BY M. HOSHIBA, O. KAMIGAICHI, M. SAITO,
S. TSUKADA, AND N. HAMADA
quake disaster by giving people enough
time to take appropriate safety measures in
advance of strong shaking.
Determining Hypocentral Parameters
and Anticipating Seismic Intensity
Earthquakes occur when stressed rock
moves through brittle rupture. Two types of seis-
mic waves are radiated from the hypocenter:
One is the P wave, which travels at about 7 kilo-
meters per second, and the other is the S wave,
which travels at about 4 kilometers per second.
EEW technology not only takes advan-
tage of the relatively slow velocity of the
seismic waves as compared with instanta-
neous electronic communication, but it also
uses the difference in arrival time between
P and S waves. The S wave is slower than
the P wave, but the amplitude of the S wave
is usually 3–10 times larger than that of the
P wave. This generally means that stronger
shaking is observed along the S wave.
The hypocenter and magnitude of an earth-
quake are determined as quickly as possible
using only early parts of the P waves at a few
stations close to the hypocenter. Using infor-
mation about the hypocenter and magnitude,
the arrival time of the S waves and seismic
intensities (that is, intensity of strong ground
shaking) at each place can be rapidly antic-
ipated. If predicted seismic intensities surpass
a certain threshold, a warning is dissemi-
nated and broadcast.
It is important to rapidly determine earth-
quake parameters so that EEWs can inform
users about an earthquake before the arrival
of the larger-amplitude S waves. The tech-
nique for quickly determining the hypocen-
ter and magnitude is based on a combina-
tion of several methods developed by a
joint research project between JMA and
Japan’s Railway Technical Research Insti-
tute (RTRI) [Odaka et al., 2003; Tsukada et al.,
2004; Kamigaichi, 2004], and by Japan’s
National Research Institute for Earth Sci-
ence and Disaster Prevention (NIED) [Hori-
uchi et al., 2005], all of which aim to deter-
mine, within a few seconds, the hypocentral
parameters using records of a single or a
few stations.
VOLUME 89 NUMBER 8
19 FEBRUARY 2008
PAGES 73–80
For this quick determination, JMA collects
waveform data from more than 1000 stations
not only of its own seismic observation net-
work but also of NIED’s High Sensitivity
Seismograph Network (Hi-net [see Okada
et al., 2004]). This combination provides a
spacing of approximately 20 kilometers
between each seismic station throughout
Japan, greatly aiding in the rapid determi-
nation of earthquake parameters.
The anticipation of seismic intensity is
based on the empirical methods of Si and
Midorikawa [1999], Matsuoka and Midorikawa
[1994], and Midorikawa et al. [1999], in
which peak ground velocity at the surface
is predicted at first using the hypocentral
distance, focal depth, magnitude, and
amplification of seismic wave amplitude at
a given site estimated from geological con-
ditions. From the peak ground velocity, the
seismic intensity is empirically estimated.
A step-by-step procedure is adopted to
improve the accuracy of the estimation as
available data increase with elapsed time.
Accordingly, EEWs are issued repeatedly
with improved reliability.
Dissemination and Broadcast of EEWs
After the estimations of seismic intensity
are made, EEWs are disseminated automati-
cally to EEW users. Information disseminated
includes updated warnings and occasional
cancellation reports.
EEW users are divided into two categories:
online limited users and other general users.
Online limited users are organizations that
obtain EEWs by computer communication
technology to control automatically some-
thing related to their businesses. These
users are assumed to understand adequately
the characteristics and limitations of EEW
technology. Online limited users include
railway companies, elevator companies,
and manufacturing industries. By contrast,
general users comprise most individuals
and organizations who receive the warnings
and then decide how best to mitigate their
risk.
For online limited users, an EEW describes
information on the hypocentral parameters
(latitude, longitude, focal depth, origin time,
and magnitude), anticipated maximum seis-
mic intensity, and earliest arrival time of
S waves for districts where seismic intensity
is predicted to be equal to 4 or greater on
the JMA scale (http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/
 23249250, 2008, 8, Downloaded from https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2008EO080001, Wiley Online Library on [14/03/2023]. See the Terms and Conditions (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions) on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License
Eos, Vol. 89, No. 8, 19 February 2008
kishou/know/shindo/explane.html). Seismic
intensity 4 on the JMA scale approximately
corresponds to VI or VII on the modified
Mercalli scale.
EEWs are disseminated to the limited users
based on a specific pattern. At first, an initial
warning is disseminated when the estimated
earthquake magnitude exceeds a specific
threshold. The threshold currently is 3.5. To
avoid a false alarm, these estimations are per-
formed after noise discrimination using the
first 2 seconds of the waveform data.
Next, the warnings are updated if further
calculations suggest different earthquake
parameters. As of now, updates will be issued
if new data differ from information in previous
warnings by 0.2 degrees for latitude and
longitude or 20 kilometers for the depth of
the hypocenter. Updates will also be issued
if estimations of the earthquake’s magni-
tude or estimations of seismic intensity are
raised by 0.5 or lowered by 1.0.
Ultimately, a final warning is disseminated
either when a certain time has passed after
the first detection of the P wave, or when
the estimated value of magnitude becomes
stable.
For general users, EEWs include information
on an epicenter location name, such as the
name of the prefecture for inland earthquakes
or the name of the sea area for offshore
earthquakes, the origin time of the event,
and the locations of districts with predicted
seismic intensity equal to 4 or greater on
the JMA scale.
Fig. 1. Arcs represent elapsed time (in seconds) from Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) to S wave
EEWs will be delivered to general users
arrival. The differences in color show the observed seismic intensity. Letters L and U on the scale
through various methods such as television,
represent seismic intensity delineations of “lower” and “upper” according to the Japan Meteorologi-
radio, e-mail via cellular telephone, and cal Agency (JMA) scale. Levels 5L, 5U, 6L, and 6U on the JMA scale approximately correspond to
Internet. Using the Internet, a Japanese elec- VII–VIII,VIII–IX, IX–X, and X–XI, respectively, on the modified Mercalli scale. Copyright JMA; reprint-
tronics company even developed a tissue-box- ed with permission. Original color image appears at the back of this volume.
sized EEW device that sounds an alarm,
indicates the anticipated intensity, and
counts down the seconds to the S wave sity were tentatively 3.5 and 3, respectively, glass windows) at homes, schools, offices,
arrival. The method of issuing warnings to for issuing the first warning. In total, EEWs halls, and shopping malls.
general users is based on a pattern similar were issued 855 times, including 26 false In addition, this technique can be directly
to that used for limited users. alarms due to mechanical troubles, light- applied at JMA to quicken the dissemination
First warnings are disseminated when the ning strikes, and human error. All of the of tsunami warnings, potentially allowing
seismic signals are detected at two or more false alarms occurred when estimations of such warnings to be issued within 2 minutes
stations and the anticipated maximum seis- seismic parameters were made using only of an offshore earthquake.
mic intensity is equal to or exceeds “5Lower” a single station.
(seismic intensity “5Lower” on the JMA scale Technical Limits of EEWs
approximately corresponds to VII–VIII on Application of EEWs
the modified Mercalli scale). Though EEWs are expected to be a powerful
Warnings are updated when the seismic EEWs are useful and powerful tools for tool for mitigating earthquake disasters, the
intensity is anticipated to be equal to 5Lower reducing the risk of a major disaster in the system has several technical limitations.
or greater at districts where the intensity was event of an earthquake, by making people For inland shallow earthquakes, EEWs are
less than 4 in the first warning. In the updated aware that strong ground shaking will soon too slow for places near the epicenter, where
warnings, the newly added districts are occur. EEWs are expected to be effective for the S wave arrives less than a few seconds
described. online control of traffic and lifeline systems, after the occurrence of the earthquake. For
A cancel report is disseminated to all users and for emergency action. earthquakes of more than a magnitude of 7,
in the case of false alarm. For example, it is In addition to triggering trains to slow rupture usually continues for more than
automatically disseminated to the online down, elevators to stop, or hospitals to sus- 10 seconds, with a first warning possibly being
limited users when there is no P wave detec- pend surgical operations, other examples of disseminated in the middle of the rupture. In
tion at stations other than the first station, the application of EEW include transferring the case of such large earthquakes, the esti-
indicating that the detection of a P wave at important data from computers to disks mation of magnitude and seismic intensity
the first station is false. immediately and shutting down electronics may be underestimated in some cases.
This information dissemination system automatically. Further, people receiving Additionally, when more than two earth-
was tested for 29 months between Febru- general EEWs can choose to take emer- quakes occur repeatedly at short intervals,
ary 2004 and June 2006. During that time, gency precautions (for example, taking it is difficult to separate them automatically.
thresholds of magnitude and seismic inten- shelter under a desk, or keeping away from The estimation of the hypocenter and mag-

Eos, Vol. 89, No. 8, 19 February 2008
nitude is not processed appropriately, so
the error in the anticipation of seismic
intensity becomes large.
Case Study: A 7.2 Earthquake
off Miyagi Prefecture
During the testing period, an M = 7.2
earthquake occurred off the coast of Miyagi
prefecture, Japan, on 16 August 2005. The
first warning was disseminated 4.5 seconds
after the first detection of the P wave at the
closest seismic station. The dissemination
was earlier by 16 seconds than the arrival of
the larger-amplitude S wave at the city of
Sendai where seismic intensity of “5Upper”
was observed (Figure 1). EEW users were
aware of the strong shaking in advance of it
reaching the city.
For the limited online users, EEW delivery
service was started in August 2006; general
users were able to receive warnings begin-
ning in October 2007. Because EEW is a new
and innovative service, JMA is making an
effort to familiarize general users with it to
avoid confusion caused by poor understanding.
Though EEWs to general users have not been
issued as of 25 November 2007, the effects of
news
NOAA Budget Increases to $4.1 Billion,
But Some Key Items Are Reduced
PAGES 74–75
The Bush administration has proposed
a US$4.1 billion budget for fiscal year (FY)
2009 for the U.S. National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The
proposed budget, which would be the agency’s
largest ever, is $202.6 million, or 5.2%, above
the FY 2008 enacted budget. By topping
$4 billion and the amount Congress passed
for FY 2008, the budget proposal crosses
into “a new threshold,” according Navy Vice
Admiral Conrad Lautenbacher, undersecre-
tary of commerce for oceans and atmo-
sphere and NOAA administrator.
“Most often, we hope Congress will help
us. This year, we hope Congress will stay
with us,” Lautenbacher told constituents at
a 7 February briefing in Washington, D. C.
He said that the administration and Con-
gress have recognized the need for the
services NOAA provides.
Lautenbacher highlighted five key budget
elements. The first is sustaining critical
operations—which includes substantial
increases for satellites in the National Envi-
ronmental Satellite, Data, and Information
Service (NESDIS) budget—as well as fund-
ing for aircraft and key ocean vessels and
for paying the NOAA workforce. The other
EEW on damage reduction will be evaluated
in the near future.
Acknowledgments
The authors thank S. Horiuchi, K. Abe,
O. Hiroi, and M. Kikuchi for their comments
and contributions and the National Research
Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Pre-
vention for providing the waveform data to
JMA’s EEW project. The work is supported
by a joint research effort between JMA and
RTRI, and also the project entitled “Research
Project for the Practical Use of Real-Time
Earthquake Information Networks” sponsored
by Japan’s Ministry of Education, Culture,
Sports, Science and Technology.
References
Horiuchi, S., H. Negishi, K. Abe, A. Kaminuma, and
Y. Fujinawa (2005), An automatic processing sys-
tem for broadcasting earthquake alarms,
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Kamigaichi, O. (2004), JMA Earthquake Early Warning,
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Matsuoka, M., and S. Midorikawa (1994), The digital
national land information and seismic microzoning
(in Japanese), in Proceedings of the 22nd Symposium
key elements are for supporting the Presi-
dent’s Ocean Initiative; improving weather
warnings and forecasts; focusing on climate
monitoring and predictions; and making
critical facility investments.
“I don’t really have any disappointments with
this budget, because we have been able to
increase it in a number of areas, and it is bal-
anced in a number of areas. What I really want
to work on is that we are able to continue the
momentum [in Congress] that we have started
with this budget,” Lautenbacher told Eos.
Some constituents, however, expressed
concern about whether the proposed bud-
get adequately funds all of NOAA’s key pro-
grams, and they suggested that the budget
should increase to at least $4.5 billion.
Kevin Wheeler, director of external affairs
for Ocean Leadership and cochair of
Friends of NOAA, told Eos that while the
budget top line is good and shows progress,
the agency’s priorities focus on costly satel-
lite issues and ensuring the continuity of
the satellites’ activities and the collection of
key data. “By putting all of its eggs in that
basket, NOAA is not able to make progress
in its operational and base programs,” he
said, adding that the agency’s effort to sus-
tain critical operations cuts funding for
many other line items.
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D. Nozaka (2003),A new method of quickly estimating
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Author Information
Mitsuyuki Hoshiba, Osamu Kamigaichi, Makoto
Saito, Shin’ya Tsukada, and Nobuo Hamada, Japan
Meteorological Agency, Tokyo; E-mail: mhoshiba
@met.kishou.go.jp
“The real worry is the squeeze that the
satellites are putting on everything,” Cindy
Schmidt, director of the Office of Develop-
ment and Government Affairs for the Uni-
versity Corporation for Atmospheric
Research, in Boulder, Colo., told Eos.
The proposed NESDIS budget of $1.158
billion is $202.8 million above the FY 2008
enacted level. Included is an additional
$242.2 million for the next generation of
geostationary satellites (the GOES-R pro-
gram) and $74 million to restore climate
sensors that were “demanifested” from the
National Polar- orbiting Operational Environ-
mental Satellite System (NPOESS) in 2006.
“If we are going to have the satellite systems
the nation needs, we are going to need this
type of spending profile,” Lautenbacher
said. He emphasized the importance of
NOAA continuing to receive critical data
needed for weather forecasts and climate
predictions.
The budget proposal includes planned
and significant decreases for the polar-
orbiting satellite system and for the geosta-
tionary satellite system. The budget plan
also calls for a decrease in NOAA’s data
centers and information services to $53.66
million, $23.6 million less than the enacted
FY 2008 budget. Nancy Colleton, president
of the Institute for Global Environmental
Strategies and executive director of the
Alliance for Earth Observations, told Eos,
“At a time when the public’s interest in cli-
mate change and other environmental
impacts is increasing, it seems ironic that
this [part of the budget] is decreasing.”
The budget for the National Weather Ser-
vice would increase to $930.7 million, $19.3
 23249250, 2008, 8, Downloaded from https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2008EO080001, Wiley Online Library on [14/03/2023]. See the Terms and Conditions (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions) on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License
Eos,
Eos,Vol.
Vol.89,
88,No.
No.8,1,192 February 2008
January 2007

Fig. 1. Arcs represent elapsed time (in seconds) from Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) to S wave Page 73
arrival. The differences in color show the observed seismic intensity. Letters L and U on the scale
represent seismic intensity delineations of “lower” and “upper” according to the Japan Meteorologi-
cal Agency (JMA) scale. Levels 5L, 5U, 6L, and 6U on the JMA scale approximately correspond
to VII–VIII,VIII–IX, IX–X, and X–XI, respectively, on the modified Mercalli scale. Copyright JMA;
reprinted with permission.