Asymptotic Power of Chi Square Tests for Linear Trends in Proportions

Author(s): D. G. Chapman and Jun-mo Nam

Source: Biometrics, Vol. 24, No. 2 (Jun., 1968), pp. 315-327
Published by: International Biometric Society
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 ASYMPTOTIC POWER OF CHI SQUARE TESTS
FOR LINEAR TRENDS IN PROPORTIONS
D. G. CHAPMANANDJUN-Mo NMI
Universityof Washington,Seattle,Washington,U. S. A.

SUMMARY
In many biological problems, the experimentermay prefer to use a chi-square
test for linear trends in proportions rather than the standard chi-square test of
homogeneity. In this paper the non-centralityparameterof this test for linear trend
in such a model is calculated. This permits the experimenterto make power com-
parisonsbetween the two tests and some tables are presented along such lines. The
power of the test for linearity in the same model is also studied. Such power studies
permit determinationof sample size and an exampleis discussedusing published data
on the possible effect of maternal smoking on the sex ratio at birth.

1. INTRODUCTION
The general results of Mitra [1958] and Diamond [1963] on the
asymptotic power of chi square tests permit experimenters to make
explicit power calculations and to design experiments or plan samnple
sizes with specific goals in mind, at least for reasonably large samples.
These general results however still require the experimenter to calculate
a rather complex expression usually involving matrix inversion and
while this could be done, if necessary, numerically for any given problem,
absence of simple formulae as well as long years of custom otherwise
have prevented biologists from making use of the available tools.
Recently however Meng and Chapman [1966] and Nam [1968] have
provided some of the explicit formulae required to calculate the non-
centrality parameter for several standard tests of the chi square family.
The aim of this paper is to provide some further formulae along these
lines, in particular giving consideration to the chi square test of trend
which has found nmuchuse in biological studies and which was discussed
in this journal by Cochran [1954] and by Armitage [1955]. Finally
an example is reviewed of use of such power calculations to determine
sample size.
2. THE BASIC THEORY
Consider k sequences of Nj trials which may result in E or E; it
is assumed that Pr [E occurs on jth sequence] = . Let v; be the
number of occurrences of E in the jth sequence.
315

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316 BIOMETRICS, JUNE 1968

The observations of a sample may be set out in an array as

Sequence
1 2 . k Total

E VI V2
... ... Vk V (1)

E N1-v1 N2-V2 . * Nk-vk NX-v

Total N1 N2 . ... Nk N

Experimenters are often interested in the hypothesis that pj = pi

for all j. This is the hypothesis of homogeneity. The alternatives
to homogeneity may be unrestricted or they may be ordered, i.e., e.g.
Pll < p12 < .*. < Plk * However, the experimentermay have still
further information such as, that with the jth sequence is associated a
variable x, such as time, dosage, etc. In these circumstances there are
additional hypotheses of interest of which we consider two. These,
together with the original hypothesis of homogeneity, are as follows:
(1) H01 : p,j = p for all j = 1, 2, , k againist completely un-
restricted alternatives.
(2) H02 : Pl = a + 3x1 ; i.e. p is a linear function of the x's.
(3) Assuming pi,'s are linear or Pu, = a + flxi we may wish to
test Ho3:: = 0. It is seen that fi = 0 implies that p' = a which is
the same hypothesis as (1), but the alternatives are now restricted.
For a discussion of the x2 tests associated with these hypotheses
see Armitage [1955] and Cochran [1954]. From results of Mitra [1958]
and Diamond [1963] it is known that under an appropriate sequence of
alternatives the limiting distribution of the x2 test statistic for such
tests is a non-central chi square.
A formulation of these results which is sufficiently general for our
purposes, and which includes as special cases the situations above,
is as follows.
Consider J sequences of Ni trials, each of which may result in onle
of I mutually exclusive events Ej ; let pj = pij(al ... , at) the prob- ,

ability of Ei occurring on the j sequence (i 1, - . . , I, j = 1, . . ., J)

be a function of t real parameters a1, , at belonging to a set R in
t-dimensional Euclidian space. Assume also that t < IJ -J, EJ 1 Ni
= N, and =1 pij = I for j = 1, ,J. Let (a, ,a) be an
interior point of R and denote pi,(ao, ... ao) by po
Let vi, be the number of occurrences of Ei on the jth sequence of
triaLsso that E Vij = Ni (j = 1, , J); under suitable regularity

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POWER OF CHI SQUARE TESTrS FOR. LINEAR TRENDS 317

conditions on the functions pii and set R, under the alternative sequence
of hypotheses H,: p%i+- (ci/-/A/N) with i; c = 0, the c

statistic

f2 f
t=1i=l
[vi -

Nipii(a',,
Nipij(6, ...
*
,

at)
t)]2

is in the limit as N co subject to Qj = Ni/N remaining fixed, dis-

tributed as a non-central chi-square distribution with J(I - 1) - t D.F.
and non-centrality parameter
x [I-B(B'B)-'B']
- 6, (2)

where

= { ;V IX (3)

B- {V (?9ah) a= a} IJXt (4)

I is the identity matrix, and -'s are asymptotically efficient estimators

(A\'Iitra[1958]).

3. TEST OF HOMOGENEITY WITHOUT ANY RESTRICTION ON pi's

Consider the 2 X k comparative trial model (1) and the hypothesis
HO1: pli P,=P2i = 1 -p against HAl = p + (ci/VN), P2i =
1 - p - (cl/ V\N), for j = 1, 2, * * , k. Then in the limit under HA1
the statistic
A
vNv
Np)
x2
x =
(
-
NAp(l -)
where
k

p= ZvN,
i=1

is distrib-utedas Xk_- (X), a non-central chi-square variate with k -1 D. F.

and non-centrality parameter,

= - p) [2jQj-(ZCjQj)] with Qj = Ni/N. (5)

Denote by x7-1, the solution of the equatioii

Pr [X2-1(?) > Xk-2_1 = E.

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318 BIOMETRICS, JUNE 1968

The limiting power of the test of size e based on the statistic X1 for
the specified sequence of alternatives is
Pr[xl _1 (X) > Xk,-l, ],

where X is given by (5). This formula for X was given by Meng and
Chapman [1966].

4. TEST OF LINEAR TREND AGAINST UNRESTRICTED ALTERNATIVE

As noted, the experimenter may be able to associate with the jth
sequence of trials a variable xi and may wish to coinsiderthe hypothesis
-a ,
II02 : pli + Oxi (j ..
k)
p2i a - O3Xj

against
HA2: Pli a + /3xi+ (cl/-VN)
P21 - a -fXj - (cj/lVN),
where the matrix
...
X1 X2 Xkl

.
LC C2
:: Ck

has rank 2, i.e. not all c's are proportional to the x's.
The unknown parameters a, ,B can be estimated from the sample
(1) by the rnodified minimum chi-square estimation method.
Define co; = Nj/plp2j and co; = pp2, where Pi =v,/N;
Also let
kc / k ck k

H= ZXiXi/ Wi HZW-EX
j=l j=l j=l j=

and for convenience write p,j as specified by H02 as pj (a, ,B).

Consider the statistic

X2c - [vU - N2p(A, A Pii - pi(a, lj)] Xi . (6)

lVIodified mininmumchi-square estimates of a, fi are solutions of

X2 ax2mo
mo= ? and

It is well known that these equations have as solutions

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POWER OF CHI SQUARE TESTS FOR LINEAR TRENDS 319

k ic
=
XS cZA ((X -
) / E (X_ - .)2 (7)
jlo1 i=l

and
k - k / k
A AS 'i E Ai*8
CZE Aijpli E

The estimates of Pi, with these estimates of &, A inserted will

A be enoted
pi( a, A) which of course are generally different from pi == vJN;
The random weights ci add an additional complexity to the asymp-
totic power calculation. To avoid this we consider instead a, B defined
with true w, . Asymptotically since the pij converge to pi1, the co,
converge to wc , and the limiting power is unchanged. However, when
the asymptotic results are applied to a finite sample size, an additional
approximation is involved.
According to the general theory the statistic

x2
_ E[Vi-
Nipi(a,
d)]
i- Npjd S1pj(a )]
is distributed in the limit as chi-square with k - 2 D.F. under "02
and as non-central chi-square with k -2 D.F. anidnon-centrality param-
eter X under HA2 . We turn now to the evaluation of X.
For convenience write xi -,,, -= and as usual denote the true
values of pii with a superscript zero. Also the usual reparametrization
of the linear regression model reduces computations slightly. That is,
we write
Pi = a' + Oxj where a' = a - flj,
and work with the parameters a', d.
Fromn(3) and (4)
Q k
= -d, C L, .. ,Ck X Ck

= 1, =
pjj/,=a' &pud/a1 Xi,

aP2j/(a' -1, &p21/a3 ---i

and

PiA1x- )
B'B = p(-

-?E 0 -

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320 BIOMETRICS, JUNE 1968

Therefore from (2) the non-centrality parameter is expressed explicitly

in the final form

= ~(~y~) k )2 k
coi- (E +/= CiZ)
(k )2 / k 6i?

The power of the test is Pr [Xk2(X) > Xk-2,f], where X is given by (9).
This will serve as an approximation to the actual power which is more
complicated wheii estimated c,3,fi, are used rather than the true co,A.

5. TEST OF THE HYPOTHESIS THAT pi IS CONSTANT, WITHIN THE

RESTRICTED CLASS OF ALTERNATIVES THAT pi IS LINEAR
The auxiliary variable xi is measured to provide additional informa-
tion about the p, and it is therefore pertinent to ask what value is this
additional information. Obviously if the experimenter assumes that pi
is a linear function of xi , either on the basis of a preliminary test or
on the basis of prior knowledge, the class of alternatives is reduced and
presumably there is a gain in the power of the test that is now made for
homogeneity. This test is now a test of the hypothesis that A = 0.
More precisely, we assume

p= 1a + x = * k),

P2j = 1 Ppl

and test
H03: = 0 against HA3 : C/VN
= C (c z 0).

Suppose the wi's were klnown anid were used in the estimate of: of
formula (7); denote this estimate by ,. . It is easily seen that
k k
E(A.) =
j=l
E Zi? i=l

oixE i + o.T i t2

_ ( E @ X9

because

wijZi = 0,

aiid

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POWER OF CGHISQUARE TESTS FOR LINEAR TRENDS 321

var() = [fWpiP2i/Tj]N / ( Xi)2

/ c

j=1

Then under the sequence of alternatives A = c/ /N

X3= 2/var = [(& -C/ ClVN) + C/ VNI2/a &
has in the limit the non-central chi-square distribution with 1 D.F.
and non-centrality parameter

=c2(Z
p1 p2j) (10)

In view of the fact that c3 converges in probability to w, A will

have the same limiting distribution as A, and we may therefore conielude
that the test: Reject HO: 0 at level E if

has limiting power for the sequence of alternatives HA3 = c/N

given by Pr [x2(X) > x2L where X is defined in (10). In this case the
E],

non-centrality parameter is found by direct elementary considerations:

an alternative approach could be the use of Theorem 4.1 of Diamond
([1963] p. 1435).
6. NUMERICAL RESULTS OF POWER CALCULATION OF THE x2
TEST OF LINEARITY
When the hypothesis of linearity is tested in a situation in which
it is false, the test procedure still begins with the premise that it is
true and under that premise, c, ,i, and then a, A are calculated. Hence
in order to calculate the power of a test of linearity we first specify
the pA in some non-linear fashion, then calculate w, , g.. and a, f which
a are attempting to estimate in this situation. Then it is possible
to calculate pi (a, f) under H02 and finally the cj .
Obviously only a few possibilities can be evaluated. Also it is
convenient to set N1 = N2 = N3 when there are three groups, or
N1 = N2 = N3 = N4 when there are four and express X in terms of N1
rather than N.
Calculation of the power of the chi-square test of

pii = a + a +
H02 :x - OXj
p2j = I -Pli

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322 BIOMETRICS, JUNE 1968

against

tPlA a,
o + 0.19i + c j/l/
A 1 - A3j

when) PA = 0.2, pA = 0.3, p1 0.6.

(A) Determinationi of cj's:
3 3

Zwc = 15.1786N,, wx = 13.0952N;

i=l jl~~~~~~=
hencee 0.863, and x, = -0.863, 2
= 0.137, Xz3 1.137, and
3

E
j =1
wijpi -5.1786N1 so ca' = 0.341.

3 3

Z X pi = 1.9594NT, , o j;- 10.9351N1 so A = 0.179;

therefore pi(a, ,) - 0.187, P2(a, :) = 0.366, p3(a, ) = 0.545, and

cl/VlNV = 0.013, C2/VA1 = -0.066, C3/V /N = 0.055.

(B) Calculation of the power:
3 3

E (ci/VN) = 0.007555, E, (c,/(V\N)2w 0.034403N,

2
Zi=l~~~~~~~~~
(cj/VATX)co j= 0.02172293N

therefore X = (0.034403 - 0.000001 - 0.001987)N1 = 0.032415N1

from (9). It is seen that the first term 3=1 (c2/N)cw, of X is dominant
compared to the others.
Table 1 shows the cases considered and the non-centrality parameter
X divided by N1 -

7. COMPARISON BETWEEN TEST (1) AND TEST (3)

It is of interest to know how much is gained in terms of power for
the test pi, = Pi (constant) when the subclass of alternatives is re-
stricted to pli being a linear function of xi as against the unrestricted
case. Of course, balanced againist this is the increase of possibly both
Type 1 and Type 2 errors where the assumption of linearity is not in
fact true. In practice, the investigator may first test Ho : pi = a' + j3i,
and, if this is accepted at some appropriate level, test Ho : , = 0.
This two-step procedure also modifies the overall Type 1 and Type 2
errors in ways that are difficult to evaluate.

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POWER OF CHI SQUARE TESTS FOR LINEAR TRENDS 323

TABLE 1
POWER OF CHI-SQUARE TEST OF H02 FOR SPECIFIED ALTERNATIVES
Casel:x = 0, 1,2 Case2:x = 0, 1,4

Non-centrality Non-centrality
Alternatives parameter Altern-atives parameter
A A A A A A
Pul P12 P13 'I
X/N1 P1l P12 P13 x/N1
/v

.2 .3 .6 .0324 .3 .3 .8 .0481
.2 .2 .6 .1463 .3 .5 .8 .0149
.2 .1 .6 .4595 .3 .6 .8 .0808
.3 .4 .6 .0071 .3 .8 .8 .4881
.3 .3 .6 .0745 .3 .2 .8 .7287
.3 .2 .6 .2384
.4 .45 .6 .0068 Case 3: x -, 1, 2, 3
.4 .4 .6 .0278 Non-centrality,
.4 .3 .6 .1212 Alternatives parameter
.3 .3 .8 .2050 Pil P12 P13 P14 /N1
.3 .5 .8 .0073
.3 .6 .8 .0078 .2 .2 .2 .6 .2609
.3 .8 .8 .2475 .2 .2 .4 .6 .0702
.2 .4 .2 .6 .3332
.2 .4 .4 .6 .0340
.3 .2 .1 .6 .1757
.3 .4 .3 .6 .3432

(A) Test (1) where alternative pia's are not restricted: For illustration
calculations are shown for the case HA : p1 = 0.2, p1A 0.5, pA =4 0.8,
x = 0, 1, 2, and N1_- N2 = N3; since P= 0.5, cl/VIN -0.3,
c2/V\N = 0, c3/ VN = 0.3; thus

P1(1 Pi)
P (f c1Qi)1 ] = 0.72N1

where X is a non-cenitlrality parameter of the non-central chi-square

with 2 D.F.
(B) Test (3) where the hypothetical model assumed is P'j = ' + :
for j = 1, * , k:
Calculations for HA : p4 = 0.2, p4 = 0. 5, PA - 0. 8, = 0, 1, 2,
and N, = N2 = N, are shown:
3 3

,B0.3, jco= 16.5N1, x = 16.5N1, ,b,= 1, xi -1

X 0, X3 = 1, and cxj = 12.5N1 therefore X = 1.125N1

i-i

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324 BIOMETRICS, JUNE 1968

Table 2 shows the numerical value of the non-centrality parameter

of the power function of Tests (1) and (3) and the actual power for
N1 = 30 (and total sample size 90).
It is seen from Table 2 that while X of test (1) is less than X for
test (3), the primary gain in power of test (3) is achieved through
the decreased degrees of freedom for P[xf(X) > xf, ] which is a monotone
decreasing function of f. This is particularly the case for small A.

8. EXAMPLE: SMOKING AND SEX RATIO

Ravenholt and Levinski [1965] published a brief report including
some interesting data on sex of infants categorized by the smoking
history of the mother. An excerpt of their data is presented in Table 3.
The decrease in the percenitage of males appears to be striking: for
example the authors state, 'Also and perhaps more clearly than pre-
viously shown, the findings of this study indicate an appreciable negative
correlation between the number of cigarettes smoked by women during

TABLE 2
POWER OF CHI-SQUARE TEST OF HOMOGENEITY. TEST (1) WITH UNRESTRICTED
ALTERNATIVES; TEST (3) WITH ALTERNATIVE RESTRICTED TO pl = a + fX .

Power of Power of
X for test (1) X for test (3)
test (1) N1 = 30 test (3) N1 = 30
Alterniative d
1. x = 0, 1, 2 (2 D. F.) (1 D. F.)
A A 4
Pul P12 P13

.2 .5 .8 .30 .720N1 .99 1.125N1 1.00

.3 .5 .7 .20 .320N1 .80 .381N1 .93
.4 .5 .6 .10 .080N1 .24 .083N1 .35
.45 .5 .55 .10 .020N1 .10 .020N1 .12
2. x = 0, 1, 4
A A 4
P1l P12 P13 (2 D. F.) (1 D. F.)

.1 .3 .9 .20 1.412N1 1.00 3.712N1 1.00

.2 .3 .6 .10 .373N1 .85 .412N1 .94
.3 .4 .7 .10 .348N1 .83 .410N1 .94
.4 .45 .60 .05 .087N1 .28 .090N1, .38
3. x = 0, 1, 2, 3
A A A A
Pll P12 P13 P14 (3 D. F.) (1 D. F.)

.2 .4 .6 .8 .20 .800N1 .99 1.208N1 1.00

.35 .45 .55 .65 .10 .200N, .52 .218N1 .72
.425 .475 .525 .575 .05 .050N1 .16 .051N1 .24

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POWER OF CHI SQUARE TESTS FOR LINEAR TRENDS 325

TABLE 3
SEX OF INFANTS ACCORDING TO SMOKING HISTORY OF MOTHERS

Cigarettes smoked None < 2000 2000-3999 > 4000 Total

during pregnancy x 0 1 2 3

No. with male offspring 171 123 98 167 559

No. with female offspring 150 118 98 171 537
%male 53.3 51.0 50.0 49.4 51.0

Total 321 241 196 338 1096

pregnancy and the proportion of males among their liveborn offspring.'

However, as was shortly pointed out by Lowe [1965] when the usual
x2 test of homogeneity is applied to this data, even though the total
sample size is 1096 which is reasonably large it is found that Xl = 1.10
(D.F. = 3; P = 0.77). The trend observed in the data urges the in-
vestigator to use the third test in the hope of obtaining a more significant
result. While choosing a test to obtain a statistically significant result
is a practice to be deplored, if the investigator wishes to limit his set
of alternatives to those specified by pl' = a + Ax; where xi are as
specified in Table 3, such a test is clearly valid. However X2 = 1.03
(D.F. = 1; P = 0.29). Even within this restricted class, the chi-square
statistic is not significant though the probability level is considerably
reduced. (Ravenholt [1965] made this test in a reply to Lowe.)
A
For the data shown = 0.0127 and clearly changes of this magnitude
are the most that could be anticipated in this situation. It is therefore
pertinent to ask what total sample size is necessary if the real trend
in the p1i's is of the order of 0.01, and this trend is to be detected with
probability (say) 0.9. In this situation the Ni are random though we
have treated them as fixed. It is convenient to use the observed Qi
as indicating the different proportions in the different categories likely
to occur in future samples. The observed Q; are 0.293, 0.220, 0.179,
0.308. Obviously the coi's differ trivially here from the co, when the
pij are near 0.5. Hence it is easy to calculate

X = 0.000581N (test 1, 3 D.F.)

and
X = 0.000582N (test 3, 1 D.F.).
Since for test 1 X must be equal to 14.17 to achieve power equal to
0.9, N = 24389 while with test 3 where X need only equal 10.51 to
achieve this power N = 18058. Thus while the observed sample is

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326 BIOMETRICS, JUNE 1968

substantial, many more observations are necessary to assure detection

of an effect of the order indicated.
If the investigator were to reject the null hypothesis of no difference
in sex ratio with smoking history of the mother, he might well wish to
test the hypothesis of linearity. If sex ratio is associated with smoking
history it is possible that p,j (proportion of males born to non-smoking
mothers) differs from p2, , p3, and p4, because the smokers have been
selected from a different population genetically or physiologically.
Or it might be argued that if indeed there are 'possible deleterious
effects of smoking upon germ cells manifested by changes in sex-ratio,'
as suggested by Ravenholt and Levinski, then with increased smoking
the deleterious effect could be aggravated so that p,j decreases quad-
ratically rather than linearly.
To single out one possibility only it is interesting to ask if in fact
P,= 0.53, p2 = 0.51, p3 = 0.50, p4 = 0.49 how many observations
are necessary to detect this non-linearity with probability 0.9. It is
assumed that test (2) is used and also that the Qi's are those observed
in the given data. By calculations similar to those of section 6 it is
found that
X = (0.6432 X 10-4)N

so that to achieve power equal to 0.9 N nmiustequal 19683. Obviously

in view of the approximations involved, the precise numnberscalculated
as required sample sizes are not to be taken literally; the orders of
magnituide should however be of value.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The authors wish to express their thanks to Dr. Blair Bennett for
calling their attention to the data cited in section 8 and the problems
associated therewith. It should also be noted that we have considered
only one aspect of the data of Ravenholt and Levinski-these authors
also considered birth weight and previous smoking history of the mothers
among other factors.

PUISSANCE ASYMPTOTIQUE DES TESTS DE CHI DEUX POUR

L'ETUDE DES VARIATIONS LINEAIRES DES PROPORTIONS
RESUME
Dans de nombreux probl6mes biologiques, l'experimentateur peut prefrer
utiliser un test de chi deux pour etudier les variations lineaires des proportions,
plutot que le chi deux standard d'homogeneite. Dans cet article le parametre de
non-centralite de ce test de variation lineaire est calcule. Ceci permet A l'experi-
mentateur de faire des comparaisons de puissance entre les deux tests et quelques

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POWER, OF CHI SQUARE TEsrS FOR, LINEAR TRENDS 327

cas sont pr6sent6s dans cette perspective. La puissance du test de lin6arit6 dans le
meme modele est egalement 6tudiee. De telles 6tudes de puissance permettent la
d6termination de la taille de l'6chantillon, et un exemple est discut6, utilisant des
donn6es publiees sur l'effet possible du tabagisme maternel sur le sex ratio a la
naissance.

REFERENCES
Armitage, P. [1955]. Tests for linear trends in proportions and frequencies.
Biometrics11, 375-85.
Cochran, W. G. [1954]. Some methods for strengthening the common x2 tests.
Biometrics10, 417-51.
Diamond, E. L. [1963]. The limiting power of categorical data chi-square tests
analogous to normal analysis of variance. Ann. Math. Statist. 34, 1432-40.
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