AVANGARD – The New Gizmo in Nuclear Arms Race

1. Nuclear Arms Race. Nuclear arms race is the arms race competition for supremacy in
nuclear warfare. This encompasses not only the world super powers but all the countries that
possess the stockpile of nuclear arsenal. The casualty rate in air borne operations of World
War – II has taught very potent lessons to military Generals all around the world, long-range
weapons and their dependence is one extension of those lessons. Nuclear Arsenal can be
broadly categorized into Short Range, Medium range and Long-range missiles. Long range
missiles specially ICBMs is crucial when it comes to Washington and Moscow because Long
range missiles are one of those tools that keep the other on its toes.

2. Russian Avangard. Russian announcement of new ICBM Hypersonic missile at the

end of 2019 has deter large ripples all around the globe. Russia claims that its new Hypersonic
missile is a technological breakthrough on the scale of “Sputnik”, The first satellite launched by
Soviets Union in 1957. “Avangard” can easily bypass ballistic missile defense system on its
way to target with sharp maneuvers. Avangard can sustain a temperature of 2000֠C and it can
travel 27 times the speed of sound whereas the Chinese version of hypersonic missile
“DongFeng-17” can move only 5 times faster. Vladimir Putin announced in 2018, they are
working on such weapon but the world was skeptical about it, because although Russian
military technology is innovative but still they hold a record number of failure but with the
announcement of Avangard to be operational has given Moscow a leap in the technological
advancement of Nuclear Arsenal.

3. Avangard is veritably a modification of Russian ICBM SS-19 with a new and advance
Re-Entry Vehicle. The name of Avangard gives the impression of speed but its not only the
speed but also the Glide vehicle trajectory, which surfs along the edge of the atmosphere
making it impossible to defend against. Avangard poses a significant challenge for existing anti-
ballistic missile defense system. As per the USA technical writeup, this hypersonic boost vehicle
is 10-20 times less visible to existing USA Early Warning Radar System as compared to
traditional Re-entry Vehicle from ballistic missile. One of the existing solutions to counter such
weapon is “Point defense” but in order to defend all important targets that are spread wide
across the country, it seems to be impossible at this moment.

4. Avangard and Nuclear Treaties between USA and Russia. Russian and USA are
bounded by various treaties with regards to expansion and use of nuclear arsenal, one such
treaty is “START (Strategic Arms Reduction) “Experts believes that announcement of this
new missile technology is one of the ways adopted by Russia for extension of START treaty.
Start treaty is going to be expired in 2021 and as per START formulation policy only one
extension of 5 years can be granted which don’t require ratification from American senate,
however a modification in this treaty needs to be ratified from American Senate, which is very
likely keeping in view the current scenario. America hesitation against renewing “The
Gorbachev Agreement” which states that a nuclear war cannot be won therefore must never
be fought raises eyebrows in Moscow because presently some circles in US defense
establishment believes that a small use of nuclear weapons can be carry out without collateral
or humanitarian damage like sinking a ship or aircraft carrier at sea. The most destabilizing
factor is that both Russian and America are talking about the actual use of low yield nuclear
weapons , Latest US nuclear policy talks about use of low yield nuclear weapons to restore
strategic stability whereas Russia is talking about use of nuclear weapons to end a conventional
conflict in Europe which is going unfavorable to them

5. USA “Prompt Global Strike” strategy which it came up at 2003 was aimed at delivering
a warhead anywhere in the world within 60 minutes is now proving to be a catalyst in nuclear
arsenal expansion both in quantity and technology. Recently President Trump approval of
“Space Force” and funding for it in USA defense budget is further escalating the stakes
between nuclear armed countries. Russia is collaborating with India for “BRAHMOS-II” which
is supersonic cruise missile, with incur of this new hypersonic missile technology Indian
inclination towards acquiring it will increase far beyond than expected and this will ultimately
put India and Pakistan into Read to Launch state means providing command and control to
the field which would prove to be destabilizing in future .The atmosphere between USA and
Russia is deteriorating and after the expiry of START in 2021 the world would be facing two
extreme nuclear powers which will be under no compulsion with regards to use and expansion
of nuclear arsenal.

6. Currently no nuclear treaty includes the condition regarding the use of hypersonic
missile and therefore it opens a gate of new and huge raft of technical, diplomatic and political
problems that need to be look altogether. Hypersonic missile technology has push the world
towards the slippery slope, they actually blur the line between conventional and strategic
weapons, their use and the allure to use hypersonic missile is nearly irresistible.