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RKN-Initiation-Report
RKN-Initiation-Report
mswift@taylorcollison.com.au
+612 9210 1381
www.taylorcollison.com.au
29 November 2023
Reckon Limited (RKN)
Initiating Coverage – Overlooked Value and Poised for US Growth Recommendation: Outperform
Our view Summary (AUD)
RKN is a software business offering accounting solutions for domestic SMEs and Market Capitalisation $62m
legal practice workflows in the lucrative US/UK market. Following the $100m sale of Share price $0.55
RKN’s APS Group for more than its market cap in August 2022, we think the market 52 week low $0.40
is undervaluing the remaining Business and Legal Groups. Currently trading on 52 week high $0.675
FY23e EV/EBITDA and PE multiples of 3.2x (76% discount to peers) and 11.8x
respectively, we believe an opportunity exists for investors in the nQueue Zebraworks Share price graph (AUD)
(Legal Group) software as it consolidates and grows its US customers. Additional and
unique management incentive structures now in place emphasise to investors that
RKN will remain focused on extracting maximum value for shareholders in
conjunction with accretive product development. We initiate coverage on RKN with
an Outperform recommendation.
Key points
Accounting software generating meaningful cash – The Business Group is
producing ~$12.4m of annualised operational cash flow including its development
spend. Further, we estimate RKN will generate $8.9m in free cash flow excluding
development spend on Legal in FY23, at an attractive ~7.2x to EV. This highlights the
optionality and margin of safety investors receive from the strong cashflow the
Business Group makes. Although we separate the two for illustrative purposes, we
see the Legal Group as an integral growth avenue.
Legal - a gem in the making – With top tier customers, a highly experienced US-
based team and a track record selling similar large businesses, we believe there is a Key Financials (AUD)
material opportunity ahead for RKN. Double-digit subscription revenue growth, FY22A FY23E FY24E
EBITDA breakeven and two and half years on from the Zebraworks acquisitions Revenue ($m) 51.2 53.9 56.8
indicates Legal is in an exciting phase. In addition to the Core back-office offering, we EBITDA ($m) 18.0 20.4 22.2
see the high value modules such as BillingQ and as DataQ as key growth products EBIT ($m) 4.8 6.3 7.9
in newly emerging markets for Legal. NPAT adj. ($m) 3.6 5.3 5.8
Shareholder value track record – Management remuneration has been clearly PE Ratio (x) 17.4 11.8 10.8
aligned with generating significant shareholder value through the potential sale of its EPS (cents) 3.2 4.7 5.1
Legal and Business groups. Material incentives are in place for management if they
EV/EBITDA (x) 3.5 3.2 2.8
reach TSR of between $150m-$300m. We believe these metrics are not unachievable
EV/EBIT (x) 13.0 10.2 8.0
when conservatively summing the parts of both businesses which provides for around
EBITDA margin
2-4x upside from RKN’s current market cap. (%)
35% 38% 39%
Material discount to peers – RKN, as a fully profitable business, stands above many
of its loss making micro-to-small cap software peers. We believe this has not been
fully appreciated by investors given it trades at an FY24e P/E discount of 61% to
relative peers after excluding larger competitors Xero (ASX:XRO) and Intuit
(NASDAQ:INTU). While we appreciate the Business Group in Australia is relatively
mature, we believe the discount is unwarranted considering Legal’s growth prospects
and the recurring revenue of both segments.
Migration to cloud unlocks sale value – There is a current trade sale restriction in
place due to historic code used in RKN’s traditional Accounts and Hosted software:
RKN is currently migrating customers to its cloud-based Reckon One platform. A
successful transfer of customers and further development of Reckon One would
unlock significant value as a potential M&A target. Although we see some risk in
further developing Reckon One to be as feature rich as the traditional desktop version,
we take comfort in the fact this it is already a well-developed and crucial tool for small
businesses.
TAYLOR COLLISON LTD. www.taylorcollison.com.au
ABN 53008172450 AFSL 247083 1
Reckon Limited (RKN)
29 November 2023
R e c k o n ( R KN ) - S um m a ry o f F o re c a s t s $ 0 .5 5
P R O F IT & LO S S S UM M A R Y ( A $ m ) B A LA N C E S H E E T S UM M A R Y
T o t a l R e v e nue 5 1.2 2 8 .2 5 3 .9 5 6 .8 5 9 .9 Cash and cash equivalents 1.2 1.1 1.1 2.8 3.1
EB ITDA 18.0 11.0 20.4 22.2 24.0 Trade and o ther receivables 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.8
Dep'n/Other A mo rt'n (13.1) (6.8) (14.1) (14.3) (14.2) Invento ries 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
EB IT 4.8 4.3 6.3 7.9 9.8 Other 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7
Net Interest (0.1) (0.1) (0.2) (0.2) (0.1) To tal Current A ssets 5.0 4.8 4.6 6.4 6.9
P re-Tax P ro fit 4.8 4.1 6.1 7.7 9.7 Trade and o ther receivables 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Tax Expense (1.2) (0.3) (0.8) (1.9) (2.4) PPE 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8
A bno rmals 53.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Right o f use assets 2.0 1.5 1.0 1.6 1.6
NP A T repo rted (co nt. and disco nt. o ps) 56.8 3.8 5.3 5.8 7.3 Other 1.1 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6
EB ITDA 35% 39% 38% 39% 40% P ayables 3.3 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.7
EB IT 9% 15% 12% 14% 16% P ro visio ns 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2
NP A T 7% 14% 10% 10% 12% Co ntract liabilities 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.9
To tal Revenue 3% 4% 5% 5% 5% To tal Current Liabilities 12.5 12.9 12.8 13.1 13.4
EB ITDA 4% 3% 14% 9% 8% Trade and o ther payables 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
EB IT (18%) (5%) 30% 25% 24% B o rro wings 4.1 1.4 3.1 3.4 1.4
NP A T (36%) 16% 48% 9% 26% Co ntract liabilities 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.1
Y e a r e nd D e c e m be r ( c o nt . o ps ) F Y22A 1H 2 3 A F Y23E F Y24E F Y25E To tal no n-current liabilities 9.6 6.8 7.9 8.6 6.1
Y e a r e nd D e c e m be r ( c o nt . o ps ) F Y22A 1H 2 3 A F Y23E F Y24E F Y25E No n Cash Items (51.1) (0.0) 0.0 (0.3) (0.4)
Current ratio (x) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 Change in Wo rking Capital 2.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 (0.2)
Net interest EB IT co verage 67.1 34.9 34.1 48.8 95.3 P ayments fo r P P E (0.2) (0.1) (0.1) (0.3) (0.3)
V A LUA T IO N M ULT IP LE S F re e C a s hf lo ws 5 .8 3 .1 4 .2 4 .3 5 .3
Y e a r e nd D e c e m be r ( c o nt . o ps ) F Y22A 1H 2 3 A F Y23E F Y24E F Y24E P ro ceeds fro m sale o f business 78.4 (0.8) (0.8) 0.0 0.0
Drawdo wn / (Repayment) o f
P E R a t io a dj. ( x) 17.4 n/a 11.8 10.8 8.6 (12.1) (2.7) (1.0) 0.3 (2.0)
bo rro wings
EV/EB ITDA (x) 3.5 n/a 3.2 2.8 2.5 Other (2.0) 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
EV/EB IT (x) 13.0 n/a 10.2 8.0 6.2 Dividends paid (70.2) 0.0 (2.8) (2.8) (2.9)
Contents Page
4. Financials 8
5. Valuation 9
6. Investment Risks 10
Appendices
• Business Group – Accounting and payroll software solutions targeting approximately three million small businesses
across Australia and New Zealand (1H23 Revenue: $22.5m – December year-end). Headcount of approximately
100.
• Legal Group – Legal practice management and workflow software targeting 500 large and 46,000 mid-size law firms
predominantly in the USA (1H23 Revenue: $5.7m). Headcount of approximately 60.
Prior to becoming a two segment operation, RKN sold its enterprise software division (APS) for $100m in August 2022. At the
time of announcement, the cash sale eclipsed its market capitalisation but only represented circa 30% of its revenue and 40%
of RKN’s EBITDA. As such we believe the market is underestimating the remaining two businesses, the “Business Group”
and “Legal Group”:
1. Business Group
The original RKN software was built on historical Intuit (INTU:US, competitor) codebase which we know as Reckon Accounts
and Reckon Accounts Hosted. This desktop accounting software is feature-rich and is used by small businesses in Australia
and New Zealand for:
Under the Intuit licence agreement, there are trade restrictions (i.e. divestment) in place which RKN must adhere to. This
restriction and the natural need to move to the cloud within the software industry has led to an acceleration of development
for Reckon One, the Company’s cloud-based accounting SaaS offering.
nQZ provides practice management software and workflow solutions to legal firms predominantly in the US and UK for
document scanning and routing, print management and cost recovery solutions. The Legal Business entered its latest chapter
when RKN purchased 70% of US-based start-up Zebraworks in August 2020 (completed in Feb-21) under a funding
arrangement. Leveraging RKN’s software infrastructure and to accelerate development of new cloud-based products were
the clear value and growth drivers for management. Following a promising two-and-half years, RKN recently committed to
TAYLOR COLLISON LTD. www.taylorcollison.com.au
ABN 53008172450 AFSL 247083 4
Reckon Limited (RKN)
29 November 2023
increase its investment by US$3.5m along with minority holders, valuing the business at US$20m (~A$31.5m). It is important
to note that the nQ Zebraworks CEO also provided his pro-rata contribution of approximately US$400k. RKN’s investment
will be predominantly front-ended but staggered over 24 months funded by Business Group earnings.
The purpose of the funding is to scale up its sales team along with its go-to-market approach and take it to full cash flow
breakeven in FY25. We see the transaction as transformational in terms of the opportunity for expedited revenue
growth and access to an exceptionally established legal software team.
Development Focus
The traditional ‘Core’ side (see figure above) will be moved to the cloud in due course but is not a priority for management.
The opportunity for revenue growth lies within the ‘Platform’ and the development of new modules to build on its ~15.1%
revenue CAGR across the previous two years. Platform which was born out of Zebraworks will benefit greatly from cross
selling its well-entrenched Core customers to the cloud products. This inlet and faster implementation time due to its on cloud
platform should compound this growth profile.
While there may be an inclination for management to expedite the migration of users to the cloud, we believe the company is
rightfully prioritising the generation of meaningful free cash flow until the timing for the transfer becomes optimal. An early
transition runs the risk of heightened churn if Reckon One's features prove underwhelming. However, we have confidence
this risk is mitigated given RKN's strong twenty-plus years of development expertise and capital allocation (i.e. the APS sale).
A complete migration positions the Business Group for third-party acquisition interest whilst also augmenting shareholder
value.
A notable trend we observe is the increasing preference among businesses for adopting specialised software solutions rather
than undertaking comprehensive IT infrastructure overhauls. This tendency is particularly pronounced in critical yet smaller
aspects of a business's ERP, such as billing and print/cost tracking. The shift provides nQZ with a compelling tailwind and a
distinctive selling point. The software's lower cost, lower risk, and minimal implementation time further solidify its
advantageous market offering.
receive substantial cash distributions, with ceilings of up to $5.7 million and $1.2 million respectively, if the TSR surpasses
$300 million (refer to the table below). The arrangement structure serves as a significant incentive for the management team.
Shareholder Return Bands Cash Distribution - CEO Cash Distribution - CFO
Under $150m Award forfeited Award forfeited
$150m - $200m $0.8m $0.2m
$200m - $250m $1.3m $0.3m
$250m - $300m $2.6m $0.6m
$300m + $5.7m $1.2m
Comparable transactions
• RKN sold APS - a business which wasn’t growing revenue - in August 2022 for 4.6x FY21 revenue and 8.4x FY21
EBITDA
• MYOB was purchased by KKR in May 2019 for 5.1x FY18 revenue and 12.4x FY18 EBITDA
• RKN sold ReckonDocs for $13m in March 2021 for 2.6x FY20 revenue and 4.3x FY20 EBITDA1
Management’s track record of selling businesses shouldn’t be underestimated for a business that may come under M&A
scrutiny by both private equity and industry players. We believe the recurring nature of revenue and the ability to utilise the
large user numbers to leverage other products is attractive for these groups. As an ancillary product, nQZ also would have a
clear exit strategy for private equity to industry players such as ProLaw, Kofax or even Clio to bolster practice management
workflows. There is also precedent for Reckon One in terms of buyers outside of Xero, Inuit and MYOB: ANZ launched
takeover talks for MYOB in 2022 as they looked for further growth avenues outside the usual course of business.
1
FactSet data.
TAYLOR COLLISON LTD. www.taylorcollison.com.au
ABN 53008172450 AFSL 247083 7
Reckon Limited (RKN)
29 November 2023
With XRO’s pricing 45% above Reckon One at the base level and a focus
predominantly on overseas growth, we continue to see an opportunity for RKN to
acquire and retain customers at least in line with net new registered businesses in Australia. In FY23, there were 300,000
new businesses registered or an average of 80,000 net new across the previous four financial years. 2 Additionally we see
numerous opportunities to leverage its 109,000+ user base through 3rd party partnerships and other monetisation strategies
through its software and mobile app.
Legal
Kofax (unlisted, US) owned by private equity stands as the primary competitor for RKN’s Core offering. The newer Platform
competes with larger cloud platform providers such as Clio (unlisted, Canada) and legal focused FileVine (unlisted, US) which
concentrates on smaller firms. The legal document management software industry is expected to grow at 14.3% CAGR
between 2023 and 2030 from $1.9b to $4.7b.3 We see the growth profile in this segment for nQZ as substantial as legal
firms consistently look for efficiency gains in administration, billing and analytics without overhauling their entire ERP.
4. Financials
As it stands, Legal accounts for 38% of group headcount and contributes around 20% of revenue, a proportion we expect to
increase through its positive growth profile. We estimate group FY23 and FY24 earnings to be $5.3m and $5.8m.
2
Australian Bureau of Statistics (Jul2019-Jun2023), Counts of Australian Businesses, including Entries and Exits.
3
Legal Document Management Software Market Research Report, Zion Market Research.
TAYLOR COLLISON LTD. www.taylorcollison.com.au
ABN 53008172450 AFSL 247083 8
Reckon Limited (RKN)
29 November 2023
• Although user growth came off slightly in 2023, we highlight this was due to RKN discontinuing its free Single Touch
Payroll when it launched 2.0. We expect the conversion from non-paying to paid users to be all but complete.
• Development spend – we forecast $5m and $2.3m 2H23 development spend for the Business and Legal groups
respectively with a similar profile in FY24 across each half. We see a margin of safety in the Business development
spend which includes Reckon Accounts. Once Reckon One is ‘fully’ developed and risk is mitigated for the migration,
there is potential for management to strategically reduce development spend on Reckon Accounts. This would then lead
to a substantial increase in cash flow directed back to shareholders.
• Funding nQZ – RKN has committed to funding US$3.5m over 24 months which is front-end loaded. With the Business
Group continuing to produce material FCF, we see the risk-reward opportunity as more than acceptable.
• Business Revenue Per User (RPU) – the Reckon Accounts/Hosted product is around $75/month compared to Reckon
One which is closer to the $45-$55. Although the price of Reckon One can reach $72/month, the current disparity is more
material as it continues to develop products and be skewed lower from the more basic packages and Single Touch
Payroll (table below). We estimate ARPU to be around $15/month with considerable room to grow. At a high level,
accountants use the higher RPU, more feature rich Accounts product whereas small businesses (around 3-4 employees)
use Reckon One.
Reckon One – Pricing per month
The Basics Essentials Essentials + Payroll Premium All Modules
$12 $33 $45 $63 $72
• Subscription revenue – in 1H23 subscription revenue made up more than 90% of total revenue showcasing the strong
recurring nature of income. Legal subscription revenue grew 13% constant currency versus pcp and Business grew 3%.
• Earnings leverage to come – as Legal transitions into a profitable business, we expect a step-change to occur in Group
margin (FY23: 37%) which has been subdued (FY23 segment EBITDA margin – Business: 60%, Legal: 4%).
• Dividend – we expect the annual dividend payout ratio to be around 50-70% of NPAT and be partially funded by debt.
We estimate the dividend to remain steady next year at 2.5cps as the Legal Group continues to grow.
5. Valuation
Peer comparison
Peer Average (ex XRO, INTU) 125 16.4 63.4 29.9 20.6 86.0 32.7
Peer Median (ex XRO, INTU) 133 9.9 66.5 13.1 9.2 116.9 27.6
Average - Premium / (discount) to peers (ex XRO, INTU) (38%) (87%) (89%) (86%) (86%) (67%)
Median - Premium / (discount) to peers (ex XRO, INTU) 3% (88%) (76%) (69%) (90%) (61%)
Source: FactSet, TC analysis
• We have included RKN’s multi-national competitors Xero and Intuit above for reference but have excluded them in
our valuation given the lofty valuations and market size. Instead, we have valued RKN with a skew towards
profitable small caps in the software space.
• Compared to the 21x FY24e EV/EBITDA peer average above, we note the valuation attributed to the APS sale in
2022 was still materially higher at ~8.4x FY21. This implies a ~66% discount to our FY24 RKN estimates.
• RKN trades at an implied 69% discount to peers on a median FY24e EV/EBITDA (TCe) basis respectively. We
temper expectations with the following:
o The growth profile of the peers used is materially more than the Business Group which currently contributes
the majority of RKN’s earnings
o There is execution risk of migrating customers and products to the cloud, away from its higher ARPU
product, Reckon Accounts
o It is a highly competitive landscape when considering QuickBooks, Xero and MYOB’s presence and funding
capabilities in Australia when compared to peers in other software industries above
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)
Estimates / assumptions
WACC 12.0%
Residual growth rate (after 5 years) 2.0%
DCF per share $0.84
• Assumed 3.5% and 12% growth in the Business and Legal Groups respectively and a 15% discount to allow for
execution and growth risks. Development spend is accounted for in the the free cash flow calculation.
We believe the significant discount to be unwarranted given the stable, profitable nature of the Business group and
the notable potential grown avenues within both Business and Legal.
6. Investment Risks
1. International and domestic competitors
RKN competes against large multi-national well-funded players in the SME accounting and payroll market. There is a material
risk that competitors including Xero, Quickbooks or MYOB take market share from RKN and adversely affects its financial
performance. This risk is also apparent for nQ Zebraworks competing against other ERP and legal software providers, through
aggressive marketing campaigns, product innovations, price discounting or acquisitions. New entrants in the market may also
develop products which compete with RKN’s products.
2. Software
New software products, updates, features and services may not be well received by customers or may fail to meet customer
expectations. RKN may not be as fast to respond to technology changes as its competitors. Nonetheless, RKN has a solid
track record of developing and maintaining crucial software for businesses of all sizes.
3. Exchange rate and currency fluctuation
RKN earns a material amount of revenue from its nQ Zebraworks in USD. There is a risk that fluctuations with the AUD and
USD affect earnings.
4. Data hosting
Any downtime of RKN’s software through its data host AWS (Business Group) or Azure (Legal Group) or otherwise can have
adverse impacts for its customers and affect customer sentiment.
5. Small business
The majority of RKN’s revenue is derived from small business which may have less capacity to deal with any economic
downturn. This may lead to increased churn and impact earnings.
6. Migration away from Intuit codebase
There is a risk that the continued development of the Reckon One codebase is harder and / or lengthier in time than expected,
which may impact earnings or delay unlocking value associated with the new Reckon One codebase.
7. Internet and data security breaches
Despite RKN’s best efforts to combat cyber threats, a cyber-attack or a data breach may occur, or a third party may otherwise
gain access to the confidential information of the Company’s customers or its internal systems. This could result in a breach
of law by RKN, or a breach of client agreements, and may significantly damage RKN’s reputation and brand name.
8. Intellectual property
RKN’s IP rights are valuable and any inability to protect them could reduce the value of its products, services or brands.
9. Small cap liquidity
As a micro-cap, RKN may suffer from low trading volumes and illiquidity issues. Investors should be aware of these risks
when investing in RKN.
10. Aggressive TSR incentive structure
Management may try to grow the business too aggressively to hit the $300m TSR incentive structure or potentially reject any
material offers at a lower band. However we note this risk is lessened given the Founder and Chairman together own more
than 16% of RKN.
Source: RKN website, data correct at September 2023 (Red circles added for emphasis)
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provide oral or written advice to clients which is not consistent with the rating or opinions
presented. Taylor Collison may solicit business from any issuer mentioned and may
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application fees), brokerage or commissions, and may receive other benefits, for acting
in these various ways, which may be shared with those involved, including our advisers
(other than members of our research or institutional teams), associated companies or
introducers of business.
Analyst Certification: The Analyst certifies that the views expressed accurately
reflect their personal, professional opinion about the product(s) addressed in this
report.