Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2023) 30:1428–1450

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-22079-9

RESEARCH ARTICLE

Use of cellular automata‑based artificial neural networks for detection

and prediction of land use changes in North‑Western Dhaka City
Foyezur Rahman1 · Md.Tauhid Ur Rahman1

Received: 20 October 2021 / Accepted: 13 July 2022 / Published online: 2 August 2022
© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2022

Abstract
The purpose of this study was to analyze the trend of change in land use land cover (LULC) and land surface temperature (LST)
in Mirpur and its surrounding area over the last 30 years using Landsat satellite images and remote sensing indices, and to
develop relationships between LULC types and LST, as well as to analyze their impact on local warming. Using this analyzed
data, a further projection of LULC and LST change over the next two decades was made. From 1989 to 2019, 5-year intervals
of Landsat 4–5 TM and Landsat 8 OLI images were utilized to track the relationship between LULC changes and LST. The
modeled LST was validated with MODIS-derived LST within the study area. Cellular automata-based artificial neural network
(CA-ANN) algorithm was used to model the LULC and LST maps for the year 2039. The Normalized Difference Vegetation
Index (NDVI) and the Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI) were analyzed to determine their link with LST. The rela-
tion between LST and LULC types indicates that built-up area raises LST by substituting non-evaporating surfaces for natural
vegetation. The average surface temperature was increasing steadily for the last 30 years. For the year 2019, it was determined
that roughly 86% of total land area has been converted to built-up area and that 89% of land area had an LST greater than 28 °C.
According to the study, if the current trend continues, 72% of the Mirpur area is predicted to see temperatures near 32 °C in
2039. Additionally, LST had a significant positive association with NDBI and a negative correlation with NDVI. The overall
accuracy of LULC was greater than 90%, with a kappa coefficient of 0.83. The study may assist urban planners and environmen-
tal engineers in comprehending and recommending effective policy measures and plans to mitigate the consequences of LULC.

Keywords Urbanization · LST · UHI · NDVI · NDBI · CA-ANN

Introduction the urban expansion. To facilitate such developments, a sig-

In recent years, the mechanisms of the land use land cover
(LULC) change, particularly in urban areas, have drawn
special attention from researchers. LULC’s global spatial
dynamics reveal the connection between land use change
and human activities (Corner et al. 2014; Dewan and Yama-
guchi 2009a, b; Meyer and Turner 1992; Rahman et al.
2017a; Rahman et al. 2018; Rahman and Esha 2022). In
a developing country like Bangladesh, rapid population
growth and economic development contributed much to
Responsible Editor: Philippe Garrigues
* Md.Tauhid Ur Rahman
tauhid_cee@yahoo.com
1
Department of Civil Engineering, Military Institute
of Science and Technology (MIST), Dhaka 1216,
Bangladesh
nificant portion of water bodies and agricultural lands have
transformed into built-up areas. This transformation of lands
affects the local, regional ecosystems, and deteriorates the
quality of living environment (Dewan et al. 2012; Dewan
and Yamaguchi 2009a, b; IPCC 2014). Hence, the mecha-
nism of LULC transformation is complex since it depends
on numerous natural and socio-economic factors (Chen et al.
2006; McKinney 2002; Tran et al. 2017). Due to the scale
effect and vulnerability of the land system dynamics, these
factors have a significant impact on the change in LULC.
Therefore, understanding the interrelationship among the
driving factors of LULC change is essentially required.
Moreover, prediction for future land use is also required
to plan and manage sustainable future cities (Balogun and
Ishola 2017; Rahman et al. 2017a, b; Rahman et al. 2018;
Rahman and Esha 2022).
Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh, is one of the world’s
fastest expanding megacities (Rahman et al. 2017a; Dewan

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Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2023) 30:1428–1450
and Yamaguchi 2009a, b; Meyer and Turner 1992). It is
also one of the most densely populated cities where around
34,000 people reside per square kilometer (Population and
Housing Census 2011 2011). The population of this city
has expanded by nearly 11 million during the last two dec-
ades (Dewan and Yamaguchi 2009a, b). This rapid growth
is primarily driven by rural–urban migration. Vertical and
horizontal expansion, and the transformation of wetlands
and greeneries into built-up areas are considered the major
contributor to the increase in land surface temperature (LST)
(Al-sharif and Pradhan 2014). However, very few research-
ers have explored the mechanism through which this urban
expansion influences the changes in land cover and urban
microclimate. There is a scope of scientific study in this field
to measure the impacts of this massive urban population on
land cover changes, biodiversity, and increase in average
surface temperature. The study also aims at showing how
the built-up area, reduction of surface water bodies and veg-
etation land, and negative consequence of unplanned rapid
urbanization contribute to the increase in LST.
The same is the phenomenon at the macro level, as the
increasing pace of exodus from villages to cities contributes
to “rapid changes to the ecosystems, biodiversity, natural
landscapes, and the environment of the cities” (McKinney
2002). Surprisingly, more than 70% of the world’s popula-
tion is anticipated to live in urban areas in the next 30 years
(Celik et al. 2019; Grimmond 2007; Handayanto et al. 2017;
Kafy et al. 2019; Rahman et al. 2017a; Ullah et al. 2019).
While this development is a sign of economic growth and
economic stability in the region, it has several short- and
long-term consequences. So, the importance of measuring
the impacts on land cover changes and the urban microcli-
mate becomes significantly important.
In fact, over the last decade, geographers, urban plan-
ners, and climate scientists have been paying considerable
attention to elevated LST in urban areas (Al-sharif and
Pradhan 2014; Kafy et al. 2019; Maduako et al. 2016; Rah-
man 2016; Zheng et al. 2015). Several studies suggest that
population expansion appears to increase the average LST
in urban environments by 2–4 °C in contrast with rural areas
(Maimaitiyiming et al. 2014; Mozumder and Tripathi 2014;
Thapa and Murayama 2009; Yu et al. 2014). Increased LSTs
and urban heat island (UHI) impacts are associated with
high energy consumption, air pollution, and health issues,
including the deaths of children and elders from asthma and
heat stroke (Ahmed et al. 2013; Maduako et al. 2016; Rah-
man et al. 2017a; Rahman and Rashed 2015; Scarano and
Sobrino 2015; Zhi-hao et al. 2011; Zhou et al. 2011).
As LST is largely dependent on LULC therefore, pre-
diction of LULC for evaluating future change in LST is
required. Cellular automata-artificial neural network (CA-
ANN) model provides a solid understanding of the com-
plexities of the spatial system to evaluate and predict LULC
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1429
changing patterns (Imran et al. 2021a, b; Kafy et al. 2021;
Mortoja and Yigitcanlar 2020; Rahman et al. 2020; Rahman
and Esha 2022). To monitor previous and existing LULC
and determine the potential impacts of LULC on the city
area, this study mainly focuses on predicting future changes
of LULC and identifies its impacts on future LST. Using a
CA-ANN model, the simulation of future land cover can be
analyzed. The CA-ANN model, together with the geographi-
cal information system, is widely regarded as the most pow-
erful tool for modeling the probabilities of the spatiotempo-
ral shift in LULC (Arsanjani et al. 2013; Santé et al. 2010).
Examining LULC change has become a matter of concern
because of the decline in biodiversity, changes in habitats,
and changes in the regional and global climate patterns and
composition (Li and Zhao 2003; Mishra and Rai 2016). It
can be challenging, complicated, and likely to yield contra-
dictory results to detect and test changes in LULC through
direct field visits (Meyer and Turner 1992; Rahman 2016;
Zheng et al. 2015). The use of the remote sensing and geo-
graphic information system (GIS) technologies has over-
come most of the constraints, enabling scientists to assess
and monitor changes in LST and LULC trends easily (Cor-
ner et al. 2014; Fu and Weng 2018; Hart and Sailor 2009;
Islam and Ahmed 2011). According to the research findings
of many scientists, there are changes in various LULC com-
ponents (water bodies, vegetation, and agricultural lands)
that contributes to the increase in LST which significantly
stimulates the generation of the UHI effect (Bahi et al. 2016;
Lambin 1999; Maduako et al. 2016). LST is recognized as
one of the main factors for warming the urban microclimate.
Several local issues are closely linked to the LST, such as
biophysical hazards (e.g., heat stress), air pollution, and
public health concerns (Amiri et al. 2009; Chander et al.
2009; Streutker 2003). As the rise in surface temperature
contributes significantly to the deterioration of the ecologi-
cal balance, it is, therefore, important to obtain LST as a
first and primary step. And then create models to predict
LST so that findings can be implemented to mitigate the
negative environmental impacts (Celik et al. 2019; Rahman
et al. 2017a; Rahman and Rashed 2015; Shatnawi and Abu
Qdais 2019; Weng et al. 2004).
Numerous studies have documented the changes in LULC
and LST in Dhaka City, revealing that the city has been
losing a substantial quantity of wetland in its north-western
region (Mirpur and its surrounding area). These lands are
being transformed into urban areas, and as a result, severe
repercussions on the microclimate of this area have been
posed (Dewan et al. 2021a, b; Imran et al. 2021a, b; Kafy
et al. 2021; Mortoja and Yigitcanlar 2020; Rahman et al.
2020; Rahman and Szabó 2021; Trotter et al. 2017). The
study can be a significant baseline to find out the area-
specific microclimate change. For guiding the sustainable
development of the area, it is necessary to safeguard the
13
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unplanned urbanization of Dhaka’s north-western sector.
Under these circumstances, the research, using ANN-based
CA algorithm simulation and using the recent and histori-
cally archived Landsat satellite images of Mirpur and its sur-
rounding areas, primarily investigates LULC and LST shifts
in the past two decades (1989–2019) to predict the future
growth and surface temperature of the study areas in 2039.
Materials and methods
Study area
Numerous studies show that Mirpur and its surround-
ing area face tremendous LULC change and so LST over
the last 30 years (Imran et al. 2021a, b; Kafy et al. 2021;
Mortoja and Yigitcanlar 2020; Rahman et al. 2020; Rah-
man and Szabó 2021). Therefore, to populate necessary
relevant data for the analysis, Mirpur and its surrounding
area (north-western part of Dhaka) have been selected as the
main study area. The geographic location of the study area
is located between 90°21′42.195″E to 90°21′27.465″E and
23°50′55.249″N to 23°44′46.334″N. The study area is a total
of 48.834 ­km2. The area of interest is situated in Dhaka Met-
ropolitan (DMP) area. Eight (8) “Thana” boundaries such
as Mirpur, Adabor, Mohammadpur, Pallabi, Darus Salam,
Shah Ali, Kafrul, and Sher-e-Bangla Nagar cover the study
region (Fig. 1).
Methodology
The primary approach of the study is based on satellite
images. The satellite image spans a greater region and has
several spectral bands that may be utilized for environmental
study. On the other hand, satellite images may give histori-
cal data that can be useful for trend analysis from the past to
the present. Futures may also be anticipated using this trend
analysis and the development of an equation. Landsat images
were collected from the United States Geological Survey
(USGS) website. Before 2013, Landsat TM 4–5 data and
after then Landsat OLI 8 data have been used for the study.
The absolute calibration of the Landsat 8 Thermal Infrared
Sensor (Band 11) has been impacted by out-of-field light
since launch. This study makes an attempt to estimate LST
using Landsat 8’s Band 10 in order to deal with this issue.
Landsat 8’s estimated LST was cross-checked against tem-
perature data from other sources, including the thermal band
of Landsat 4–5, despite Band 10’s shorter wavelength. All
the Landsat images are taken for November to get cloud-free
images. After downloading the data, sequentially land cover,
LST, NDVI, and NDBI were calculated. Using the data, LST
and land cover were predicted for the next 30 years (till
2049). Meanwhile, the calculated data were validated using
13
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Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2023) 30:1428–1450
temperature data (following the same date when the image
was taken) collected from Bangladesh Metrological Depart-
ment (BMD) and Nasa Power Access Data. Afterwards, a
correlation analysis was carried out among LST, NDVI, and
NDBI. The whole methodological steps are given in the flow
diagram (Fig. 2).
Land use land cover classification
To choose training samples and identify the various LULC
classes, a true color composite (TCC) was created using
appropriate band combinations for all images (d’Entremont
and Thomason 1987; Good and Giordano 2019). Landsat
images were categorized using the Maximum Likelihood
Supervised Classification (MLSC) approach for the years
1989, 1994, 1999, 2004, 2014, and 2019. Mirpur is a ver-
satile urban area; hence, to avoid complexity, the area has
been classified into four major LULC classes (water body,
built-up area, vegetation, and bare land). A total of around
25 samples were gathered to generate LULC maps for each
LULC class. Each categorized map has been assessed for
accuracy using the kappa index (Foody 2002; Pontius and
Millones 2011; Story and Congalton 1986).
Estimation of land surface temperature (LST)
Estimating LST from Satellite imageries follows a simple
methodological hierarchy. Firstly, atmospheric radiance has
to be calculated from the raw data collected by the thermal
band. Then, this atmospheric radiance has to be converted
to sensor brightness temperature. Lastly, using this sensor
brightness temperature, LST can be retrieved. A detailed
description of the process has been given below.
a. Top of Atmospheric Spectral Radiance: Top of Atmos-
pheric Spectral Radiance (TOA) was retrieved (Liu and
Zhang 2011).
b. Sensor brightness temperature estimation (Ti): First
and foremost, conversion from the spectral radiance of
thermal infrared band to active radiance sensor bright-
ness temperature was calculated (Liu and Zhang 2011;
Maduako et al. 2016; Rahman et al. 2017a; Sholihah and
Shibata 2019).
c. Retrieving LST: Thermal infrared wavelengths are used
to determine Top of Atmosphere (TOA) brightness.
Meanwhile, to get an accurate land surface brightness
temperature, atmospheric influences such as upward
emission and downward irradiance reflected from the
surface should be adjusted. Calculating the land sur-
face spectral emissivity (Ɛ) enables the aforementioned
adjustment to be made. Meanwhile, some elements such
as water content, chemical composition, structure, and
roughness all affect the emissivity of the surface (Zine
Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2023) 30:1428–1450 1431

Fig. 1  Location of the study 90°19'30"E

area

23°51'0"N

23°51'0"N
Pallabi

Shah Ali

Mirpur
Kafrul

Darus Salam

Adabor
Sher-e-bangla Nagar
23°45'30"N

23°45'30"N
Mohammadpur

Z
90°19'30"E 90°25'0"E

Study Area
Legend
Study Boundary
Dhaka Metropolitan Area (DMP)

0 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.8 2.4

Kilometers Scale: 1:59,180

Spatial Reference: Bangladesh Transverse Mercator (BTM)

Index Map Dhaka Metropolitan Area Datum: Everest 1830

El Abidine et al. 2014). Numerous scholars have dem-
onstrated that the surface emissivity is highly correlated
with the NDVI, and so the emissivity can be calculated
using the NDVI (Rouse et al. 1973). NDVI can be cal-
culated using the reflectance values of the visible and
near-infrared bands (Rouse et al. 1973). Using the NDVI
value, the proportion of vegetation ­(Pv) can be calculated
to measure land surface emissivity (Ɛ) by using Eq. 4
(Liu and Zhang 2011). Using ­Pv, land surface emissivity
(Ɛ) can be measured by following Eq. 5 (d’Entremont
and Thomason 1987; Good and Giordano 2019). The
land surface temperatures corrected for spectral emis-
sivity (Ɛ) were computed (Avdan and Jovanovska 2016;
Chaudhuri and Mishra 2016; Ullah et al. 2019; Xiong
et al. 2012). LST represents land surface temperature (in
Kelvin). To get values in Celsius, LST has to be modi-
fied by adding absolute zero (− 273.15 °C); Ti was the
sensor’s brightness temperature. The emitted radiance’s

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1432
Fig. 2  Flow diagram of image
processing procedure
wavelength was indicated as 𝜆 and Ɛ indicates the land
surface spectral emissivity.
The Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI)
employs the near-infrared (NIR) and short-wave infrared
(SWIR) bands to highlight manufactured built-up regions.
It is ratio-based to account for changes in landscape light-
ing and atmospheric influences. NDBI is calculated as
(SWIR − NIR) / (SWIR + NIR) (Zha et al. 2003).
Simulation of land cover and LST
The CA-ANN model is designed to simulate land use
changes through a multiple output neuron. The network out-
put layer decides the possibilities of multiple land uses with
multiple output neurons. The appropriate parameters for the
simulation are calculated automatically by the neural net-
work training process. The CA-ANN model does not include
specific transfer rules. The only function is to train the neural
network to achieve empirical parameter values. Many factors
can be added to the model to improve the precise simulation.
A combination of cellular automata and ANN models will
produce a better LULC and LST transition spatio-temporal
pattern (Mondal et al. 2016; Parsa et al. 2016).
The LST and LULC for the year 2039 with the help of
MOLUSCE Plugin in QGIS 2.18 are typically predicted
with an ANN. ANN is an effective method that helps to
forecast future LST and LULC using data sets from previ-
ous years (Civco 1993; Maduako et al. 2016; Shatnawi and
Abu Qdais 2019). LST simulation was performed in this
study using input parameters LULC images, NDVI, NDBI,
latitude, and longitude as output parameters for LST (Gopal
and Woodcock 1996; Maduako et al. 2016). Besides, the
CA-ANN model for the future LULC was used in the predic-
tion of input parameters of road layers, NDBI, NDVI, lati-
tude, and longitude data. The pixel value data of the images
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Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2023) 30:1428–1450
were transformed in ArcGIS software 10.6.1 for the better
performance of the model. The model was developed using
the past 20 years’ data (1999–2019) as the input parameters
for predicting the future year 2039 data.
Field verification techniques of LULC
Google Earth displays satellite and aerial imagery in a world-
wide mosaic of varying resolutions, as well as additional
data such as photos, addresses, and more. Additionally, it
permits the creation of geometric primitives like points,
lines, and polygons, as well as properties like vector format
(KML). When zooming in on a specific area, different types
of images are displayed depending on the level of detail
desired. These images range from continental-scale SPOT5
and Landsat images to aerial orthophotos, IKONOS, and
QuickBird images to GeoEye-1, Worldview-1, and World-
view-2 images for urbanized areas. When a user zooms in
on a particular area, the name of the data source and the col-
lection date are shown in the bottom portion of the window.
In the latest version of Google Earth, you can now access
archive pictures, which may be used to see how things have
changed over time. Only by examining the dimensions of
the features detected can the ground sample distance and
picture resolution be calculated. There is no mismatch or
seam with other pictures in terms of the spatial expansion of
these images inside the Grande Raccordo Anulare.
The accuracy parameters include the overall accuracy,
producer accuracy, user accuracy, and the kappa coefficients.
The overall accuracy is determined by multiplying the error
matrix by the total number of corrected samples. Histori-
cally, the term “producer accuracy” has been defined as the
ratio of the total number of accurate sample units within
a category to the total number of sample units within that
category. This accuracy metric is based on the capability
of accurately identifying a reference sample unit and is a
Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2023) 30:1428–1450
real indicator of omission error. When the total number of
accurate category sample units is divided by the total num-
ber of row sample units on a map (e.g., the total number of
row sample units), the result is a commission error measure.
This is referred to as “user accuracy” or “reliability,” and
it reflects the likelihood that a sample unit specified on the
map is located on the ground. Following the calculation of
all accuracy parameters, the kappa coefficient was deter-
mined (Congalton and Green 2008; Foody 2002; Pontius
and Millones 2011; Story and Congalton 1986).
While this work makes a contribution to measuring UHI
by the use of location-dependent meteorological, physiologi-
cal, and environmental data, it has numerous drawbacks. Due
to a lack of observed temperature data, this research relied
on satellite-derived data. Landsat images were acquired in
the early morning for this investigation (10:18 AM). How-
ever, the air temperature rises significantly throughout the
afternoon and evening. Despite these shortcomings, this
research provides a complete approach for estimating UHI.
The technique used in this research, as well as the findings,
will aid planners and policymakers in identifying variables
related to UHI. The methodology offered in this research
will help them to develop mitigation plans, policies, and
strategies, as well as prioritize and sequence adaptation
actions based on the degree of UHI.
Results
Land use land cover classification
The LULC map for 1989, 1994, 1999, 2004, 2009, 2014, and
2019 was generated using MLSC (Fig. 3a−f). The study’s
entire area is roughly 48.830 k­ m2. The categorized picture
from 1989 revealed a larger proportion of area for bare ter-
rain, aquatic bodies, and vegetation, respectively, at 35.04%,
27.34%, and 24.9%. For 1989, the built-up area was just
12.56% (Fig. 3a). In 1994, bare ground had the most area
(39.20%), followed by water bodies (24.63%) and vegeta-
tion (17.04%) (Fig. 3b). In 1994, built-up area increased by
7% over 1989 levels. The continuing upward trend in bare
land (40.45%) and built-up area (31.85%) was accelerated
in 1999, mostly due to growing urbanization. Water bodies
(8.19%) and vegetative land (19.11%) have seen a decline
in recent years due to the transfer of natural surfaces to bare
ground and later to built-up land (Fig. 3c). In 2004, bare land
(33.15%) continued to decline due to the conversion of bare
land to urban built-up areas (43.76%). Filling up water bod-
ies (4.77%) and vegetative land (18.32%) that were initially
bare land and were eventually moved to built-up areas began
to speed in 2004 (Fig. 3d).
The categorized LULC findings for 2009, 2014, and 2019
were compared (Fig. 3e−f) by calculating the percentage
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1433
change in each LULC class over time. Between 2009 and
2019, the quantity of bare and vegetated land decreased con-
siderably (by roughly 10%). During the same time span, the
built-up area expanded by a factor of two (21% of the study
area). Finally, the water body declined by 1% of the studied
area between 2009 and 2019.
Percent change analysis of different LULCs
During the 1989–2019 study period, LULC categories were
converted into other categories and thus losses and gains
of LULC categories were also examined (Table 1). The
results indicate that built-up area was generally increasing
and water bodies and vegetation land were decreasing sig-
nificantly during the study period. For the years 1989 to
1994, built-up area and bare land area were gained 6.485%
and 4.158% area, respectively, whereas vegetation and water
bodies were lost by 7.930% and 2.713% of their area, respec-
tively. Similar to the year 1994–1999, a significant increase
in the built-up area and a very moderate increase in bare land
and vegetation area were found and the percentages were
shown by 12.717%, 1.653%, and 2.056%, respectively. Only
dramatic loss in water bodies of 16.445% was recorded from
1994 to 1999. Moreover, from 1999 to 2004, except built-up
area, other three LULC classes were facing decreasing trend.
Built-up area gained 11.906% whereas bare land, water bod-
ies, and vegetation land lost 7.686%, 3.421%, and 0.789%
area respectively. From 1999, the percentage of built-up area
has started to increase because of the conversion of large
percentage of bare land to built-up area.
From 2004 to 2009, built-up area gained 23.281% area
whereas bare land, vegetation, and water bodies were
reduced to 17.748%, 4.228%, and 1.305% respectively.
From 2009 to 2014, built-up area gained by 12.425%
whereas bare land, vegetation, and water bodies reduced to
2.847%, 8.863%, and 0.715% respectively. Considering the
year 2014–2019, built-up area gained by 7.499% whereas
bare land, vegetation, and water bodies were reduced to
6.679%, 0.383%, and 0.440% respectively. Overall, the high-
est losses (bare land and vegetation) and gains (urban area)
was observed in the 2004–2014 period. However, the water
body expansively was lost its coverage from 1994 to 1999
(Table 1).
Field validation of LULC
Table 2 demonstrates the classification of overall accuracy,
kappa coefficient, and validation of land use classification.
For the year 2019, the overall accuracy was over 90% and
the result of the kappa coefficient was 0.83. The accuracy
level is classified as very strong when the kappa coefficient
is greater than 0.75 (Congalton and Green 2008; Foody
2002; Pontius and Millones 2011; Story and Congalton
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1434 Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2023) 30:1428–1450

Fig. 3  Classified land use land

cover map of the study area in
(a) (b)
(a) 1989, (b) 1994, (c) 1999, (d)
2004, (e) 2009, (f) 2014, and
(g) 2019

(c) (d)

1986). To validate the land use classification, 50 sampling
points were compared with the corresponding point on
Google Earth images over the same period. In conclusion,
the overall classification accuracy, kappa coefficient sta-
tistics, and validation all show good accuracy which is
suitable for LULC simulation.
Estimation of land surface temperature (LST)
Figure 4a−g indicate the spatial pattern of LST distribution.
In all maps, bright yellow tone represents higher temperature
and a greenish tone represents low surface temperature. LST
concentration and spatial and temporal LST patterns display

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Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2023) 30:1428–1450 1435

Fig. 3  (continued) (e) (f)

(g)

Water Body
Vegetation Land
Built-up Area
Bare Land

rapid changes in LULC groups. The core built-up area is
sensitive to high temperatures. As the images were taken in
the month of November which is generally the winter season
in Bangladesh, therefore, the displayed data will show the
temperature of the corresponding winter season of the years.
Figure 4a and b focus on annual surface temperature con-
ditions of 1989 and 1994 and LST varied within the range
of less than 20–24 °C. From 1999 and 2004, temperature
decreased slightly and the reason is Bangladesh went under
massive flood during that period.
In that period, surface water existed for a long period. For
that, temperature was comparatively lower than the previ-
ous year and LST varied 20–32 °C (Fig. 4c and d). In the
year of 2009, the LST varied 20–32 °C (Fig. 4d). For 2014

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1436 Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2023) 30:1428–1450

Table 1  Percentage change of LULCs in the study area from 1989 to 2019
LULC Area in ­km2 Change in %
1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 1994–1989 1999–1994 2004–1999 2009–2004 2014–2009 2019–2014

Water body 13.4 12.03 4.00 2.33 1.69 1.34 1.13 − 2.713 − 16.445 − 3.421 − 1.305 − 0.715 − 0.440
Urban area 6.2 9.34 15.55 21.37 32.74 38.81 42.47 6.485 12.717 11.906 23.281 12.425 7.499
Vegetation 12.2 8.32 9.33 8.95 6.88 2.56 2.37 − 7.930 2.075 − 0.789 − 4.228 − 8.863 − 0.380
Bare land 17.1 19.14 19.95 16.19 7.52 6.13 2.87 4.158 1.653 − 7.696 − 17.748 − 2.847 − 6.679
Total 48.83 48.83 48.83 48.83 48.83 48.83 48.83

and 2019, the LST was found at the highest peak because
of the significant increase of built-up area and reduction of
water bodies and vegetation land. From 2014 to 2019, LST
varied from 24 °C to more than 34 °C (Fig. 4e−g). The
north-western part of the study area exhibited a lowering in
temperature due to higher vegetation and agricultural land
whereas the southeastern part exhibits a rise in LST due to
rapid urban expansion and decline of water bodies as well
as vegetation land.
Percent change in LST
The percent change in LST will provide a better insight
into the temperature variation at different ranges of
LST. From 1989 to 1994, the highest percentage of the
area (30.946%) was lost in having LST below 20 °C
range. Also, 30.928% area increased within the range of
20–24 °C. Due to the abundance of vegetation and water
bodies, the temperature range above 28 °C was found
unavailable (Table 3). From 1989 to 1994, the highest
percentage of the area (57.063%) was lost in having LST
below 20 °C range. Also, 54.829% area increased within
the range of 20–24 °C. Due to the abundance of vegetation
and water bodies, the temperature range above 32 °C was
found unavailable (Table 3).
Due to heavy floods in 2004, LST reduced to less
than 20 °C from 1999 to 2004 (Table 3). But, from the
year 2004 to 2009, the maximum percentage of the area
increased to 89.09% within the LST range of 24–28 °C.
During this period, significant increase in built-up area
and a reduction of water bodies and vegetation area were
noticed (Table 3).
The built-up area continued to increase from 2009 to
2014 and from 2014 to 2019 (Table 3) which resulted in the
increase of LST by more than 32 °C. The maximum area
of temperature was found within 28–32 °C (35.784% area)
and it was 52.136% area from 2009 to 2014. Here, 1.273%
and 0.238% area increased to more than 32 °C from the year
2009 to 2014. The increase of built-up area and reduction
of water bodies and vegetation land were dominant from the
year 2009 which contributed to an increase of LST by more
than 32 °C from 2009.
Validation of LST
Aside from the stray light issue, the computed LST using
just Landsat 8 Band 10 cannot be accepted until cross-val-
idation because of the band’s short wave length. The simu-
lation of future LST patterns was estimated on the basis
of 1989 to 2019 data at 5-year interval period and BMD
Agargaon station’s data was available. Estimated LST data
has a minimum and maximum LST value and BMD data
also had minimum and maximum temperature data. There-
fore, the percentage of error was calculated in two ways
considering maximum and minimum LST and tempera-
ture values (Table 4). After validating both source data,

Table 2  Accuracy Assessment for 2019 LULC

Year Classified Class Validation points for different LULC classes
Water Body Urban Area Vegetation Cover Bare Land Total User Accuracy

2019 Water 10 0 1 0 11 90.91

Built up Area 0 15 0 1 16 93.75
Vegetation 0 2 11 1 12 91.67
Bare Land 1 1 0 9 11 81.82
Total 11 16 12 11 50
Producer Accuracy 90.91 93.75 91.67 81.82 Overall Accuracy Kappa Coefficient
90% 83.85

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Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2023) 30:1428–1450
Fig. 4  Land surface temperature
distribution in the year (a) 1989,
(a)
(b) 1994, (c) 1999, (d) 2004, (e)
2009, (f) 2014, and (g) 2019
(c)
the minimum and maximum temperature errors for the
year 2014 were estimated as 3.678% and 4.982%, respec-
tively. However, BMD only have one station for the entire
Dhaka City that too does not lie inside the study area.
Hence, further and more accurate validation is necessary.
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1437
(b)
(d)
MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Emissiv-
ity daily data (1 km pixels) offers geospatially enabled
LST. Therefore, MODIS Land Surface Temperature/Emis-
sivity Daily L3 Global 1 km (MOD11A1) data has been
chosen to test the accuracy of the predicted LST derived
13
1438 Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2023) 30:1428–1450

Fig. 4  (continued) (e) (f)

(g)

LST in 0C
<20 24-28
20-24 28-32

>32

from Landsat 8’s Band 10 image (Leya et al. 2022). These
MOD11A1 data obtains spatio-temporal validation as they
are of the same date and falls in the research region. Mean
and standard variation of the MOD11A1 data indicated
that there is a non-significant small difference between
MODIS and Landsat means and therefore the estimation
of LST was acceptable for further processing (Table 5).
Association of LST and LULC
Cross‑sectional profile of LULC vs LST
The most effective method for determining the effect of
LULC on LST is to study the relationships between ther-
mal signatures and land cover types. The thermal infrared

13

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Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2023) 30:1428–1450 1439

Table 3  Percentage change of LSTs in the study area from 1989 to 2019 ­(km2)
LST range Area in ­km2 Change in %
1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 1994–1989 1999–1994 2004–1999 2009–2004 2014–2009 2019–2014

< 20 °C 43.11 28 0.13 12.01 0 0 0 − 30.95 − 57.06 24.33 − 24.60 0 0

20–24 °C 5.02 20.12 46.89 34.93 3.30 0 0 30.93 54.83 − 24.51 − 64.76 − 6.76 0
24–28 °C 0.70 0.71 1.12 1.20 44.71 21.93 4.46 0.02 0.83 0.17 89.10 − 46.65 − 35.78
28–32 °C 0 0 0.69 0.69 0.82 26.28 43.64 0 1.41 0.009 0.27 52.14 35.55
> 32 °C 0 0 0 0 0 0.62 0.74 0 0 0 0 1.27 0.24
Total 48.83 48.83 48.83 48.83 48.83 48.83 48.83

Table 4  Validation of LST simulation based on the estimated LST for in 1989, > 25 °C in 1994, > 27 °C in 1999, 28 °C in
the year 2014 2004, > 30 °C in 2009, > 31 °C in 2014, and > 33 °C in
Year Temperature from satellite image BMD data Percent- 2019 for bare land in seven different years’ cross-sections.
age of Besides, the other two LULCs (water bodies and vegeta-
error tion) were recorded as having the lowest temperature rang-
2014 Minimum temperature ing from 16 to 27 °C. The findings signify that built-up area
24.883 24.000 3.678 increases LST by replacing natural vegetation with non-
Maximum temperature evaporating and non-transpiring surfaces.
32.545 31.000 4.982
LULC wise LST distribution

Table 5  Validation of LST simulation based on the estimated LST The distribution of LST in different LULC classes in vari-
using MODIS ous ranges demonstrates the LULC wise LST concentra-
Satellite Maximum value Minimum value tion in the study area. Considering the LST distribution in
different LULC classes for the year 1989, most of the area
MODIS Landsat MODIS Landsat
was experienced below 20 °C in every LULC class and the
Year 1989 29.7 28.3 17.9 18.6 covered area under 20 °C was 15.40 k­ m2 in water bodies,
1994 27.3 26.9 19.2 18.4 12.27 ­km2 in bare land, 3.24 k­ m2 in built-up area, and 12.20
1999 26.66 27.65 19.2 18.3 ­km2 in vegetation cover (Table 6). In 1994, most of the area
2004 31.73 31.25 20.5 19.8 experienced below 20 °C for all LULC and the dominated
2009 28.25 29.3 19.37 20.19 LULC was bare land (14.08 ­km2), water bodies (10.35 ­km2),
2014 30.15 31.19 23.15 23.6 and vegetation (2.91 ­km2). At LST range 20–24 °C, 7.97
2019 31.73 32.73 26.27 26.86 ­km2, 5.41 k­ m2, and 5.06 k­ m2 areas were recorded as built-up
Mean 29.36 29.61 20.79 20.82 area, vegetation land, and bare land respectively (Table 6).
SD 2.03 2.16 2.92 3.23 For the year 1999, the highest range was 20–24 °C and
the maximum coverage of LULC class was bare land (19.11
­km2), followed by built-up area (15.75 k­ m2) and vegetation
radiation emitted from the ground’s surface, including roofs, land (5.30 ­km2) (Table 6).
pavements, plants, bare soil, and water bodies, was measured In 2004, the highest range of LST was 20–24 °C and the
and stored as LST using remotely sensed sensors. Two cross- maximum LULC classes were built-up area (18.05 k­ m2),
sections were taken over the research region to represent followed by bare land area (12.13 ­km2). The lowest LST
the LST for each LULC type, and the average LST for each was found at water bodies (1.42 ­km2) that were below 20 °C
LULC type is presented in Fig. 5a−g. Two cross-sections (Table 6). In the year 2009, the highest range of tempera-
were investigated, one from northwest to southeast (AB) and ture was 24–28 °C and the maximum coverage of LULC
one from northeast to southwest (CD). class was in the urban area (31.90 k­ m2), followed by bare
From the profile, it was found that congested built- land area (6.75 ­km2). The lowest temperature was recorded
up area experienced average LST more than 24 °C in in an urban area (0.02 ­km2) under 20–24 °C temperature
1989 (Fig. 5a), > 27 °C in 1994 (Fig. 5b), > 28 °C in (Table 6).
1999 (Fig. 5c), 29 °C in 2004 (Fig. 5d), > 30 °C in 2009 As the built-up area is continuously increasing, therefore,
(Fig. 5e), > 32 °C in 2014 (Fig. 5f), and > 34 °C in 2019 LST values got momentum from 2014 to 2019. In 2014,
(Fig. 5g). Also, the highest LST was recorded as 22 °C the highest percentage of built-up areas was found in the

13

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1440 Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2023) 30:1428–1450

(a) (b)

(c) (d)

(e) (f)

(g)

Fig. 5  Cross-sectional profile of LULC vs LST for the year (a) 1989, (b) 1994, (c) 1999, (d) 2004, (e) 2009, (f) 2014, and (g) 2019

13

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Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2023) 30:1428–1450 1441

Table 6  LULC wise LST distribution from 1989 to 2019 range of 28–32 °C and 24–28 °C with corresponding areas
Temperature < 20 °C 20–24 °C 24–28 °C 28–32 °C > 32 °C of 23.04 k­ m2 and 15.15 k­ m2 respectively. In 2019, 0.61 k­ m2
and 40.94 k­ m2 of built-up areas were found to have more
Land cover 1989 (area in ­km2) than 32 °C and 28–32 °C respectively (Table 6).
Water body 15.40 0.00 - - -
Built-up 3.24 2.89 0.70 - - Relationship among LST, NDVI, and NDBI
area
Vegetation 12.20 0.00 - - -
land
Two land cover indices, the NDVI and the NDBI, were
Bare land 12.27 2.12 - - -
developed in order to quantify the link between LST and
Land cover 1994
the indices. The lower NDVI value was associated with a
Water body 10.35 1.68 - - -
greater LST level in this study. Additionally, the NDVI score
Built-up 0.66 7.97 0.71 - -
in the studied region decreased from − 0.1 to − 0.3 between
area 1989 and 2019. The lower NDVI value corresponds to paved
Vegetation 2.91 5.41 - - - ground, bare soil, and rock, all of which result in elevated
land surface temperatures. Low NDVI values (0.2 to 0.3) cor-
Bare land 14.08 5.06 - - respond to shrubs and grassland, whereas high values cor-
Land cover 1999 respond to green surfaces.
Water body 0.09 3.91 0.00 0.00 - On the contrary, the NDBI value increased steadily,
Built-up 0.00 14.54 0.32 0.69 - resulting in greater LST levels. From 1989 to 2019, the
area results of linear regression and multiple correlations reveal
Vegetation 0.04 9.33 0.00 0.00 - that LST has a significant and positive connection with
land
NDBI and a strong and negative correlation with NDVI
Bare land 0.00 19.11 0.84 0.00 -
(Fig. 6a−g). In all correlation analyses, the R2 value was
Land cover 2004
greater than 0.75, indicating that the variables were highly
Water body 1.42 0.39 0.00 0.00 -
linked. By entering the value of an independent variable
Built-up 1.94 18.05 1.20 0.69 -
area
such as LST for each year, the resulting linear regression
Vegetation 4.59 4.36 0.00 0.00 -
formula developed an equation for forecasting the depend-
land ent variable NDVI or NDBI. The equation fluctuates year
Bare land 4.06 12.13 0.00 0.00 - to year and may be used to model more complex relation-
Land cover 2009 ships between LST, NDBI, and NDVI. Additionally, the
Water body - 1.32 0.37 0 - correlation coefficient for each equation with a complicated
Built-up - 0.02 31.90 0.82 - relationship between variables may be addressed in greater
area detail in future research (Fig. 6a−g).
Vegetation - 1.45 5.43 0 -
land LULC prediction for the year 2039
Bare land - 0.51 6.75 0 -
Land cover 2014 LULC classes in the research region changed considerably
Water body - - 1.33 0.01 0.00 throughout the study period (1989–2019). It was neces-
Built-up - - 15.18 23.04 0.59 sary to predict future LULC dynamics because, if historical
area
trends continue, LST would change, affecting both biodiver-
Vegetation - - 1.23 1.33 0.00
land
sity and microclimate in the research region. Additionally,
Bare land - - 4.19 1.89 0.03
the future LULC forecast is critical because it establishes a
Land cover 2019
foundation for sustainable urban design. Additionally, the
Water body - - 0.92 0.21 0.00 variance in LST analysis from 1999 to 2019 demonstrated a
Built-up - - 0.92 40.94 0.61 noticeable shift. As a result, it was critical to forecast future
area LST trends. The CA-ANN model was used to forecast future
Vegetation - - 1.84 0.53 0.00 LULC and LST for the year 2039 by analyzing the research
land area’s historical LULC and LST trends. The prediction’s
Bare land - - 0.78 1.95 0.14 accuracy was confirmed using the proportion of right pre-
dictions, the overall kappa value, the kappa location value,
and the kappa history value for the predicted variables. The
model validation findings for transition potential modeling
indicated that the total kappa index and percent-correctness

13

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1442 Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2023) 30:1428–1450

Fig. 6  Correlation between LST (a)

vs NDVI and NDBI in the year
(a) 1989, (b) 1994, (c) 1999, (d)
2004, (e) 2009, (f) 2014, and
(g) 2019

(b)

Water Body
Vegetation Land
Built-up Area
Bare Land

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Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2023) 30:1428–1450
Table 7  ANN model validation for LULC in QGIS MOLUSCE
Plugin
Prediction ANN model validation for LULC prediction
year
QGIS-MOLUSCE Plugin module
%-correct- Overall Kappa loca- Kappa histo
ness kappa value tion
2039 84.56% 0.84508 0.8529 0.8852
value were 84% (Table 7), which is an acceptable degree of
accuracy for LULC modeling. The model validation result
shown in Fig. 8a was obtained using the QGIS program.
Simulation results showed that approximately 92% of the
area will be converted into built-up area in 2039 (Fig. 7b).
Predicted LULC change in future could adversely affect the
environment altering both climate and biodiversity of the area.
The percentage of change indicates that in 2039, built-
up area would increase about 5.5% higher than 2019 if this
pattern continues. Moreover, 92.42% of Mirpur and the sur-
rounding area would convert into built-up area and there will
be a drastic reduction of other LULC such as vegetation,
bare land, and water bodies (Table 8).
LST prediction for 2039
The simulated result showed a strong agreement that con-
firmed the accuracy of the ANN model’s prediction for 2039
with 91.856% correctness and 0.9362 overall kappa value
(Table 9). Based on the ANN model validation in other
research, the percentage of correctness value over 80% dem-
onstrates strong agreement of accuracy.
The validation provided an excellent accuracy with more
than 90% of correctness for the simulated LST map in 2039
(Fig. 8a). Similar to the LULC for the study period from
1989 to 2019, LST also shows a substantial amount of
change. Accordingly, LST is simulated for 2039. The past
trends of estimated LST data are used in the ANN model to
predict the future LST trends of the study area.
The prediction exhibited that approximately 23.69% of
the Mirpur area is likely to have LST greater than 32 °C
and 72.62% area is likely to remain 28–32 °C LST range.
There may not be any temperature area that might experi-
ence below 28 °C LST. The change of percentage of area
is around 22.18% which will fall within the range of LST
greater than 32 °C in 2039 (Table 10). The prediction results
demonstrate that most of the LST remain below 32 °C. Fig-
ure 8b shows the rising trend of LST in the study area for
the year 2039.
This effect of high LST is going to be a worrying problem
for the study area. The temperature effect depends on the city
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1443
geometry and Dhaka City’s unexpected growth triggers this
devastating impact of the increase of LST.
Discussion
The impact of LULC fluctuations on the LST in Dhaka’s
northwest region (Mirpur and the surrounding area) was
measured during a 5-year period between 1989 and 2019,
with forecasts extending to 2039. Prior research on LULC
alterations and LST was useful for conducting this study
and comparing its results with those of other studies. This
study indicated an increase in the amount of developed and
barren land and a decrease in the amount of vegetation and
water bodies, which is in line with prior findings (Ahmed
et al. 2013; Dewan and Yamaguchi 2009a, b; Mia et al.
2017). Ahmed et al. (2013) observed that the urban area in
Dhaka City rose from 15.68 to 36.91% between 1989 and
2009, while vegetation declined from 19.97 to 8.53%. For
the Mirpur region alone, this study found that waterbod-
ies, vegetation, and barren ground dropped by 27.44% to
2.3%, 24.98% to 4.85%, and 35.02 percentage points, respec-
tively. On the other hand, the built-up area has expanded
from 12.6 to 86.98%, a 585% increase in the measured time
period. Ahmed et al. (2013) predicted that Dhaka’s built-up
area will grow to 49% by 2019. And this study found that
increased urbanization has mostly affected the city’s north-
western suburbs. Butt et al. (2011) stated that built-up area
expanded from 18.22 to 27.86% and thick forest/mixed veg-
etation declined from 34.07 to 27.33% from 1972 to 2009
in Islamabad, Pakistan. In the instance of the north-western
region of Dhaka, land cover underwent a dramatic trans-
formation across the whole research period. The lowland
of the research area was filled with sand and transformed
to bare land. Imran et al. (2021a, b) observed that housing,
settlement, and industry had caused a loss of wet and veg-
etation land in Dhaka’s northeast and northwest suburbs,
which verifies the study’s finding of a rising tendency. Most
of the bare lands in 1989 turned into the built-up area in
Mirpur region. Most of the vegetation cover, water bod-
ies, and low-lying land also converted to the built-up area,
which affected environmental biodiversity and natural habi-
tat (Alphan 2003).
Population increases in Dhaka City because of a greater
birth rate and migration from rural to urban areas, as well
as the city’s social and economic development, which led
to urbanization (Dewan and Yamaguchi 2009a, b). Migra-
tion from rural to urban areas accounted for the majority
of Dhaka’s rapid population rise. Substantial urbanization
has already happened to meet the needs of a larger popu-
lation, and it has had a negative influence on the limited
natural resources because of ongoing overexploitation. The
extension of the urban area of Dhaka City was not evenly
13
1444 Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2023) 30:1428–1450

0.6 0.5
(a) y = 0.0555x - 1.0381 (b) 0.4 y = 0.0417x - 0.8122
0.4 R² = 0.9957 R² = 0.9837
0.3
0.2 0.2
Values

Values
0 0.1
19 20 21 22 23 24 25 0
-0.2
-0.1 19 21 23 25 27
Year (20xx) y = -0.0765x + 1.6755
-0.4 -0.2
R² = 0.9778 Year (20xx)
-0.3 y = -0.0578x + 1.3703
R² = 0.9757
NDVI NDBI NDVI LST
Linear (NDVI) Linear (NDBI) Linear (NDVI) Linear (LST)

0.6 0.5 y = 0.034x - 0.6574

(c) y = 0.047x - 1.0294 (d) R² = 0.9965
0.4
0.4 R² = 0.9824
0.3
0.2

Values
Values

0.2
0 0.1
19 21 23 25 27 29 0
-0.2
Year (20xx) -0.1 16 18 20 22 24 26 28

-0.4 y = -0.0646x + 1.661 -0.2 Year (20xx)

R² = 0.9616
y = -0.0422x + 1.1007
R² = 0.9894
NDVI NDBI NDVI NDBI
Linear (NDVI) Linear (NDBI) Linear (NDVI) Linear (NDBI)

0.5 y = 0.0572x - 1.394 0.5 y = 0.0537x - 1.5944

(e) (f)
0.4 R² = 0.9976 0.4 R² = 0.9292

0.3 0.3
0.2
Values

Values

0.2
0.1
0.1
0
0 -0.1 24 26 28 30 32
22 24 26 28 30
-0.1 -0.2 Year (20xx) y = -0.048x + 1.5603
-0.2 Year (20xx) -0.3 R² = 0.9738
y = -0.071x + 2.0151
R² = 0.9909

NDVI NDBI NDVI NDBI

Linear (NDVI) Linear (NDBI) Linear (NDVI) Linear (NDBI)

0.5
(g) y = 0.0518x - 1.6006
0.4 R² = 0.9463
0.3
0.2
Values

0.1
0
-0.1 25 27 29 31 33 35
-0.2
-0.3 Year (20xx)
-0.4 y = -0.0461x + 1.5613
R² = 0.9851

NDVI NDBI
Linear (NDVI) Linear (NDBI)

Fig. 7  a LULC prediction model validation result for the year 2039 and (b) simulated LULC map for the year 2039

distributed in all directions; rather, urban expansion was the built-up area, although the contribution of built-up area
concentrated on the city’s outskirts. The northern region of to other land cover was minimal. LST heat zones migrated
the city of Dhaka saw rapid urbanization. Lowland, bare soil, to a higher temperature zone with the growth of built-up
vegetation, and water body all contributed to a net change in area and bare land, and the probable cause was an increase

13

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Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2023) 30:1428–1450 1445

Table 8  Percentage change of LULC Area ­km2 (2019) Area in % Area ­km2 (2039) Area in % Change in %
LULCs in the study area from (2039–2019)
2019 to 2039
Water body 1.1259 2.31 1.12 2.29 − 0.012
Built-up area 42.4674 86.96 45.13 92.42 5.459
Vegetation 2.3697 4.85 2.05 4.19 − 0.664
Bare land 2.871 5.88 0.53 1.09 − 4.788
Total 48.83 100.00 48.83 100.00

Table 9  ANN model validation for LST in QGIS MOLUSCE Plugin center of English Bazar, West Bengal, India, but the change
Prediction ANN model validation for LST prediction
of LULC and the movement of the heat zone from a low to
year a high rate in the Mirpur region was dramatic.
QGIS-MOLUSCE Plugin module According to the findings of this study, a large part of
%-correct- Overall Kappa loca- Kappa histo the UHI impact in Mirpur can be attributed to man-made
ness kappa value tion structures, such as buildings and paved surfaces. Evapotran-
2039 91.856 0.9362 0.9037 0.92582 spiration from plants may reduce LST, thereby reducing the
UHI impact (Li et al. 2012; Myint et al. 2013). In the Mirpur
region, however, increasing green plant cover may not be the
in impervious surface, which stored solar heat throughout best technique for mitigating urban heat island effects (UHI).
the day and caused greater LST. Pal and Ziaul (2017) discov- Green vegetation provides cooling benefits and minimizes
ered a similar tendency of heat zone changing in the urban the impacts of paved surfaces; hence, optimizing land cover

(a) (b)

LST in 0C

Fig. 8  a LST prediction model validation result for the year 2039 and (b) simulated LST map for the year 2039

13

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1446
Table 10  Percentage change Range Area ­km2 (2019)
of LSTs in the study area from
2019 to 2039
< 20 °C - -
20–24 °C - -
24–28 °C 4.46
28–32 °C 43.64
> 32 °C 0.74
Total 48.83
spatial layout is one option to optimize cooling and decrease
warming effects. It was determined that big, continuous
clusters of greenery had a greater cooling impact than frag-
mented, dispersed greenery (Li et al. 2012; Maimaitiyiming
et al. 2014; Zhang et al 2009).
In English Bazar urban center, West Bengal, India, Pal
and Ziaul (2017) observed an LST rise of 0.114 °C/year
during the summer season. In contrast, the Mirpur region
had an LST increase of 0.21 °C/year during the summer
season across the whole research period. Although these
two cities have comparable meteorological circumstances,
the urban growth scenarios were distinct; hence, urbaniza-
tion had a significant impact in the increase of LST in the
urban region. The spatial distribution of LST indicates that
Mirpur area was influenced by higher temperature zones as
the time progressed, and that regions of higher tempera-
ture heat zones extended as the built-up area and bareness
increased. The growth of LST in newly developed built-up
and undeveloped land was greater than that of all other land
use types. Consequently, the primary finding of this research
is that LST increased with LULC modification owing to an
increase in imperviousness.
Albedo analysis by Ejiagha et al. (2020) revealed that
industrial and residential regions have greater and weaker
albedo values, respectively, indicating the importance of
rooftop materials in influencing LST. However, the influ-
ence of LULC on LST varies depending on the land cover
composition of the area. After a certain percentage of land
is covered by buildings, the cooling benefits of such struc-
tures begin to diminish, according to Zheng et al. (2014).
There were also higher connections between the spatial pat-
terns of paved surfaces and LST in regions with more than
50% of paved surfaces and more than 90% of the combined
proportion of paved surfaces and soils (Zheng et al. 2014).
The impervious layers of Mirpur and the adjacent region are
more thickly formed, including several high-rise structures
in the vicinity.
The influence of land cover change on the LST has previ-
ously been described; nevertheless, there was also an effect
of climate change. Climate change has led to a rise in tem-
perature in Bangladesh, according to several past research.
13
Content courtesy of Springer Nature, terms of use apply. Rights reserved.
Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2023) 30:1428–1450
Area in Area ­km2 (2039) Area in Change in
percentage percentage percentage
(2039–2019)
- - -
- - -
9.13 1.80 3.69 − 5.44
89.36 35.46 72.62 − 16.74
1.51 11.57 23.69 22.18
100 48.83 100
When it comes to average annual maximum and minimum
temperatures, Khan et al. (2019) found that between 1981 and
2010, they rose by 0.3 and 0.4 °C every decade, respectively.
According to the findings of Mullick et al. (2018), throughout
the years 1966–2015, the average yearly temperature increased
by 0.4 °C. There was a 1.38 °C rise in the minimum, mean,
and maximum temperatures during the previous 49 years,
while the temperature ranges were 21.05 to 23.41 °C, 25.35
to 26.99 °C, and 30.13 to 31.70 °C. Because of this, land use
change was not the only factor contributing to an overall rise in
LST throughout the course of the research period; the climatic
change was also a significant factor. Based on these findings,
land use and climate change have had a significant role in the
greater rise in LST in the area.
The results in this article imply that high-density structures
are unsuitable for urban environments. According to Zheng
et al. (2019), taller residential structures have negligible LST
impacts in a neighborhood-scale residential area with sufficient
greenery and residential buildings, resulting in a strong cool
island effect. Urban sprawl must be restricted in this setting
to enhance the microclimate environment of Mirpur and the
surrounding region. It is concluded that the lack of attention
given by city planning officials to building construction, as
well as the city’s unplanned and chaotic spatial expansion,
may be the driving causes of LST in Mirpur and thus across
Dhaka City. However, without appropriate planning tools such
as decentralization, green belts, increasing open/green space in
the core city through redevelopment/land readjustment tech-
niques, public awareness of city planning rules/regulations,
and increased responsibility on the part of the responsible
authorities, it will be difficult to halt the negative effects of
spatial growth. On the other side, in highly populated places,
building upgrades using green construction materials and roof-
top plants may assist minimize LST.
Conclusions and recommendations
The study area faced a tremendous increase in built-up
area. Increase in impervious layers’ trend will reflect more
heat and generate higher surface temperature. Considering
Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2023) 30:1428–1450
the year 2014–2019, built-up area gained 7.499% area
whereas bare land, vegetation, and water bodies were lost
6.679%, 0.383%, and 0.440% area, respectively. The maxi-
mum losses (bare land and vegetation) and gains (built-
up area) were observed in the 2004–2014 period. How-
ever, the water body expansively lost its coverage in the
1994–1999 periods.
The average surface temperature increasing rate is high
in 5-year interval period. In 1989, 88.284% of the area was
covered under 20 °C temperature. Later, the maximum area
of temperature was increased to the range of 28–32 °C at
52.136% from the year 2009 to 2014. Here, 1.273% and
0.238% area were increased to more than 32 °C from the
year 2009 to 2014 and from 2014 to 2019, respectively. The
increase of built-up area and reduction of surface water bod-
ies and vegetation land were dominant from the year 2009
which contribute to the increase in the LST up to more than
32 °C from the year 2009. Validation of LST estimated data
with BMD data and MODIS LST guided the way forward
in estimating the future LST.
Prediction indicates that in the year 2039, approximately
92.42% of Mirpur and its surrounding areas will be covered
by built-up area and the corresponding predicted LST range
will be greater than 32 °C. The prediction exhibited that
approximately 23.69% of the Mirpur area is likely to have
LST greater than 32 °C and 72.62% area is likely to remain
28–32 °C LST range. There may not be any area that might
experience a temperature below 28 °C LST, even in the
winter season. The change of percentage of area is around
22.18% which will fall within the range of LST greater than
32 °C in 2039. The prediction results demonstrate that most
of the LST remain below 32 °C.
The cross-section profile of LULC vs LST shows higher
temperature existed in built-up areas in all time periods. In
the year 2019, 0.61 ­km2 of the urban area was fallen more
than 32 °C temperature range followed by 40.94 ­km2 in the
range of 28–32 °C. LST has a strong and positive correlation
with NDBI. LST has a strong and negative correlation with
NDVI. In all the correlation analysis, the R2 was found more
than 0.9 which means the variables are strongly correlated
with each other. The study shows a clear past and present
situation of the negative consequence of unplanned rapid
urbanization as well as predicts the future scenario of the
study region.
The overall result shows a high LST change in the study
area. Mirpur area is located in the DMP area which is the
most economically productive area of this country. There-
fore, preparation steps to reduce LST, as well as UHI effects,
are important. The seasonal change of LST in the study area,
which in a tropical country is very uncertain, needs cloud-
free satellite images. In summer region, cloud contains the
whole study region. If summer images could be collected,
then actual LST effects can easily be realized. In addition,
Content courtesy of Springer Nature, terms of use apply. Rights reserved.
1447
to understand the magnitude, it is necessary to evaluate UHI
locally and nationwide.
Acknowledgements All praises to Allah the benevolent, the Almighty,
and the kind. We wish to express my profound gratitude and sincere
appreciation to Mohammad Shahriyar Parvez, Research Assistant, Cli-
mate Change Lab, Department of Civil Engineering, Military Institute
of Science and Technology (MIST), for his untiring support in revis-
ing and polishing this manuscript. Researcher, ANM Foyezur Rahman
expresses sincere gratitude to MIST Authority for providing partial
financial support to accomplish his MSc research successfully.
Author contribution ANM Foyezur Rahman: methodology, software,
data curation, writing—original draft preparation.
M Tauhid Ur Rahman: conceptualization, methodology, writing—
review and editing.
Data availability Not applicable
Declarations
Ethics approval Not applicable
Consent to participate Agree to participate
Consent for publication Agree to publish
Competing interests The author declares that this research work is his
original work and has written it in its entirety. He has duly acknowl-
edged all the sources of information that have been used in the paper.
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