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Forecast of lake volume and salt concentration in Lake Chapala, Mexico

Article in Aquatic Sciences · August 2004

DOI: 10.1007/s00027-004-0694-9

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Aquat. Sci. 66 (2004) 257– 265
1015-1621/04/030257-09
DOI 10.1007/s00027-004-0694-9
© EAWAG, Dübendorf, 2004
Overview Article
Forecast of lake volume and salt concentration
in Lake Chapala, Mexico
Manfred van Afferden* and Anne M. Hansen
Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua, Paseo Cuauhnáhuac 8532, Col. Progreso, Jiutepec, 62550 Mor., Mexico
Received: 10 June 2003; revised manuscript accepted: 9 December 2003
Abstract. Using historical hydrological information and
water quality records, an early warning system was de-
veloped to forecast short- and long-term trends in water
level changes and volume-dependent major ion concen-
trations for Lake Chapala, Mexico. The developed tool al-
lows one to forecast yearly minimum lake-water volumes
with a 90% probability and less than ±5% error. The
long-term behavior of lake volume and its trend towards
a new equilibrium was estimated by a second empirical
approach, where water storage variations were calculated
by estimating changes in total lake evaporation losses due
to variations in lake area. Available historical water qual-
ity records were analyzed and, by applying subsequent
Key words. Major ions; accumulation; ion balance; early warning.
Introduction
The conventional approach to manage water quality is to
obtain chemical-specific information from the analysis of
water samples for priority pollutants. These data are then
reviewed with respect to water quality standards and ex-
cesses are noted and underscored with respect to current
regulations. This approach allows the determination of
water quality changes and trends in water quality but does
not allow the forecasting of water quality in highly fluc-
tuating water bodies especially some tropical lakes, that
are subject to seasonal and man-made changes in water
* Corresponding author phone: +52 777 329 36 00;
fax: +52 777 329 36 82; e-mail: afferden@tlaloc.imta.mx
Published on Web: August 24, 2004
Aquatic Sciences
statistical data filtration, volume and time dependent
trends in major ion concentrations were established. Mass
and charge balances were applied to complete the data-
sets with concentrations of ions that are not measured
during ordinary monitoring. Concerning water quality
regulations, minimum lake volumes were proposed to
guarantee the intactness of this important drinking water
resource. Despite the uncertainties of these approaches,
the early warning system presented provides a useful tool
for short and long-term prediction of lake water storage
and quality that may support management decisions re-
lated to the whole watershed.
volume and quality. Such fluctuations makes a monitor-
ing approach, supported exclusively on actual water qual-
ity data, inadequate and emphasizes the need to set up an
early warning system. Use of the early warning system
would be useful where water resources may be threatened
and there is a need to establish water protection emer-
gency procedures.
Lake Chapala is the largest and most important lake in
Mexico, located in the center of the country and sup-
ported by a watershed of approximately 52,500 km2
(Aparicio, 2001) (Fig. 1). It is a shallow and turbid tropi-
cal lake that serves as the main drinking-water supply for
the city of Guadalajara, and represents a unique ecosys-
tem. The lake is approximately 70 km long and 15 km
wide. As shown in Table 1, its maximum storage capacity
is 9.69 km3 with a global surface area around 1161 km2.
During the last 67 years, the lake has had a mean depth of
258 M. van Afferden and A. M. Hansen Forecast of lake volume and salt concentration

Figure 1. Map of Mexico with magnification of the watershed of Lake Chapala.

Table 1. Hydrological variations in Lake Chapala.

Values Volume Mean depth Surface area Periods and dates

(106 m3) (m) (km2 )

Minimum 954.0 1.4 670.1 July, 1955

Maximum 9686.3 8.4 1160.7 October, 1935
Mean monthly 5210.0 4.9 1060.5 March 1934 to December 2001
Aquat. Sci. Vol. 66, 2004 Overview Article 259

4.92 m, a maximum mean of 8.35 m in 1935, and a min-
imum mean of 1.42 m in 1955 (CNA-IMTA, 2000).
The lake is a sink for dissolved substances and sus-
pended sediments transported from up-stream agricul-
tural, urban and industrial areas through the Lerma river
and the local watershed (Hansen and van Afferden,
2001a; Hansen and van Afferden 2001b; Jay and Ford,
2001).
The main goal of this work is to contribute to the in-
formation needs in water resources management of this
tropical lake, where among the most crucial problems are
the shrinking water levels during the last decades and the
lack of sufficient hydrological and water quality data.
Only around 20 physical, chemical and biological para-
meters are monitored in this important aquatic ecosys-
tem, including temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen, total
organic carbon, alkalinity, total hardness, nitrogen, phos-
phate and coliforms. There are nearly no data available
for toxic pollutants like heavy metals. Using hydrological
information (CNA-IMTA, 2000) and water quality
records obtained from the National Water Commission of
Mexico (CNA), an early warning system for short- and
long-term prognosis of trends in water volume and major
ion concentrations was developed for Lake Chapala.
Hydrological and water quality data
The CNA reports monthly mean lake level data since
1934 (CNA-IMTA, 2000) and has water quality data from
Lake Chapala through a routine monitoring program
since 1974. The parameters given in Table 2 were mea-
sured according to the mentioned standard methods.
Results and discussion
Prediction of annual low water level
The Lerma-Chapala watershed is characterized by a well-
defined rainy season, from June to October, and a dry
season during the rest of the year with occasional rain
showers during December and January. Therefore, annual
variations in lake water levels undergo well-defined
cyclic changes in high and low water levels. Knowing the
maximum lake volume at the end of the rainy season, the
following equation allows one to estimate the minimum
water volume in the next dry season:
Vmin = Vmax = (Amin * Emd * tmd) * a (1)
where: Vmin = estimated minimum lake volume (m3)
Vmax = maximum lake volume at the end of the
rainy season (m3)
Amax = maximum lake area at the end of the rainy
season (m2)
Emd = mean evaporation during dry seasons
1971 – 2001 (m3 m–2 d–1)
tmd = mean duration of dry season from
1934 – 2001 (d)
a = empirical adjustment factor (0.944)
The mean duration of the dry season ( tmd) was defined as
the time between the occurrence of the monthly maxi-
mum between October and November and the minimum
monthly lake level in June or July of the following year.
Mean duration of the dry season was determined as 243.8
days with a standard deviation (d) of 25.7 days and mean
evaporation ( Emd) during the dry season of 4.94 ¥ 10–3 m3
m–2 d–1 (d = 2.73 ¥ 10–4 m3 m–2 d–1) in the period of 1971
to 2001. Amax and Vmax were calculated using the bathy-
metric data of the lake (CNA-IMTA, 2000; SARH, 1981).
By applying equation 1, estimates of yearly minimum
lake volumes were obtained. Figure 2 shows the histori-
cal and calculated low water levels in Lake Chapala. A
verification technique was used that generates predic-
tions for historical dates so that forecasts can be recon-
structed for those data (Day, 1985). Each forecast period
of 243.8 days is assumed to be independent.
A statistical analysis by t-testing and analysis of data
set deviation results in a higher than 99% significance
level between both data populations. By using empirical
equation 1, the projected minimum lake water volumes
occur with a 90% probability of less than ±5% error of
real minimum water levels.
Potential evaporation values used in this approach
were measured by pan evaporation and do not reflect real

Table 2. Parameters, methodologies, and sampling periods for hydrological and water quality data of Lake Chapala.

Parameter Method Sampling period

Lake level Relative elevation 1934 – 2001

Lake volume Elevation-volume curve (SARH, 1981) 1934 – 2001
Evaporation Pan evaporation 1971 – 2001
Total dissolved solids (TDS) NMX-AA-020-1980 (SPFI, 1980a) 1974 – 2001
Total hardness NMX-AA-072-1981 (SPFI, 1982) 1974 – 2001
Alkalinity NMX-AA-036-1980 (SPFI, 1980b) 1974 – 2001
Chloride (Cl–) NMX-AA-073-1981 (SPFI, 1981a) 1974 – 2001
Sulfate (SO42–) NMX-AA-074-1981 (SPFI, 1981b) 1974 – 2001
Water-pH NMX-AA-008-1980 (SPFI, 1980c) 1974 – 2001
260 M. van Afferden and A. M. Hansen
Figure 2. Historical maximum and minimum volumes and calcu-
lated yearly low water volumes in Lake Chapala. Error bars are
given for time and modeled lake minimum levels.
lake surface evaporation due to missing considerations
like wind speed, solar radiation and temperature gradients
(Ocón et al., 2000). Equation 1 does not specifically re-
flect changes in surface area during the dry season and
variations in salinity that may affect evaporation and do
not consider other lake water out or inflows. However, the
Santiago River, the lake’s natural outflow, is dry when
lake volume is below 5000 ¥ 106 m3 and mean monthly
precipitation during the dry season amounts to 10 mm
(Aparicio, 2001). These parameters that influence fore-
casts of minimum yearly lake volumes are integrated in
the empirical adjustment factor (a) that was set to 0.944
to give the best fit with historical data.
Real lake surface evaporation differs from pan evapo-
ration measurements by coefficients between 0.55 and
1.24 as calculated by Ocón et al. (2000). Generally, an
evaporation coefficient of 0.7 is used to calculate real
lake surface evaporation for Lake Chapala. The adjust-
ment factor of 0.944 is within this range of evaporation
coefficients, clearly demonstrating that evaporation de-
termines the yearly decrease in lake water level.
The presented evaporation-based model does not ad-
just evaporation as a function of mean water temperature,
which one would expect to increase with increasing shal-
lowness because measured water temperature data within
one sampling event vary more than mean temperature
changes at different lake levels (total of 2272 individual
data). However, future research may be directed to de-
velop a module that additionally includes adjustments
due to changes in temperature, wind speed, and water tur-
bidity.
Prediction of long-term equilibrium water levels
As shown in the previous section, there is a good correla-
tion between annual minimum lake volume and measured
Forecast of lake volume and salt concentration
mean evaporation loss. In contrast, the annual maximum
storage of Lake Chapala depends on a multitude of fac-
tors such as precipitation (frequency and quantity), water
use and exploitation in the lake and Lerma river basin.
These factors include a high uncertainty level that makes
an exact prediction of long-term lake level variations ex-
tremely difficult. However, a tool that not exactly predicts
but allows the modeling of long-term trends of mean an-
nual lake volumes and water quality could be useful for
future watershed management purposes.
Using the data set of mean annual lake volumes, the
water balance of the lake was determined by using the
equation:
DVt = Vt -
= Vt – 1 (2)
where: DVt = water storage variation in the year t (m3)
Vt = mean annual lake volume in the year t (m3)
Vt – 1 = mean annual lake volume in the year
t –1 (m3)
This calculation for the period 1995 – 2000 results in a
mean deficit in the water balance of –444 ¥ 106 m3 yr–1,
which might be due to over-exploitation of the resource in
the watershed, drinking water supply by the city of
Guadalajara (deLeón-Mojarro et al., 2001; Scott et al.,
2001) and natural climatic cyclic changes (Filonov et al.,
2001). This deficit in water balance implies that, remain-
ing all other factors (rainfall, extractions, etc.) un-
changed, lake volume and area will decrease with time
due to decreasing evaporation. This fact allows one to de-
fine a time-dependent trend to a new steady state of lake
volume were inputs are equal to outputs.
The trend in lake water volume evolution can be de-
scribed by equation 3:
Vt + 1 = Vt + (DV0 + Emy * (A0 – A1) * a) (3)
where: Vt + 1 = mean annual lake volume in the year
t+1 (m3)
Vt = mean annual lake volume in the year t (m3)
DV0 = mean annual water storage variation (m3)
Emy = mean annual evaporation,
1971 – 2000 (m3 m–2)
A0 = mean annual lake surface area at t = 0 (m2)
(beginning of simulation)
a = empirical adjustment factor (0.944)
A1 = mean annual lake surface area in the year
t (m2)
The expression Emy * (A0 – A1) represents the difference
in evaporated water volume due to changes in lake sur-
face area. The relation between A1 and V1 is based on ba-
thymetric data measured by SARH (1981) and described
in Hansen and van Afferden (2001a). The evaporation
Aquat. Sci. Vol. 66, 2004 Overview Article 261

Figure 3. Simulation of Lake Chapala volume evolution and re- Figure 4. Simulated new equilibria of Lake Chapala volume in
sulting increase in total dissolved solids (TDS), considering an ini- 2010 as a function of annual adjustment of mean water storage vari-
tial deficit in the water balance of – 444 ¥ 106 m3 yr –1. ation.

data were obtained from CNA-IMTA (2000) and the
mean value from 1971 to 2000 amounted to 1773 mm
(1.77 m3 m–2).
The simulation shown in Figure 3 starts in the
year 2000 with an initial water storage volume, V1 , for the
lake of 2121 ¥ 106 m3, corresponding to a mean yearly
lake area, A0 , of 85,594 ha. The mean water storage
variation, DV0 , was calculated from real lake volume data
for the time period 1995 to 2000, resulting in – 444 ¥
106 m3.
The calculated time-dependent trend towards a new
equilibrium of lake volume results in a minimum of
nearly 714 ¥ 106 m3, starting from 4270 ¥ 106 m3 in 1995.
This simulation of the trend in water storage is based on
the reduction of evaporation losses due to the decrease in
lake area. The uncertainties of this approach like rainfall,
water usage, etc., will partly be leveled out through a
yearly adjustment. Consequently, the mean annual stor-
age water variation, DV0 , should be actualized by includ-
ing the actual water storage variation. Table 3 gives the in-
put parameters for 7 individual runs of the model, where
DV0 has been changed as described above.
The start and end points of these simulations are il-
lustrated in Figure 4. Whereas the simulations corre-
sponding to 1995 and 1996 result in equilibria above
1000 ¥ 106 m3 in 2010, simulations starting in 1997, and
thereafter, indicate a trend towards lower equilibrium vol-
umes for the lake from between 944 and 576 ¥ 106 m3. It
is observed that fluctuations in equilibrium volumes are
less significant than the differences in starting volumes.
However, the deviations in simulated equilibria are influ-
enced by changes in the water deficit (Table 3), probably
due to variations in climate and water allocation. The ad-
justment of annual storage water variation results in an
actualized prediction of the long-term trend in lake water
volume and water quality (see below), and may be used
by decision makers to establish long-term action plans in
water management.

Table 3. Input parameters for simulations with annual adjustment for storage water variation.

Parameter/Period Simulation

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Vt [106 m3] 4270 3903 3296 2647 2700 2121 1543

Corresponding to year 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

DV0 [106 m3] –515.8 –441.3 –496.5 –534.7 –417.1 –444.1 –463.2

Corresponding to period 1995 1995–1996 1995–1997 1995–1998 1995–1999 1995–2000 1995–2001

Modeled years 15 14 13 12 11 10 9
262 M. van Afferden and A. M. Hansen Forecast of lake volume and salt concentration

Table 4. Available water quality data populations and data filtration results from April 1974 to December 2001.

TDS Total Hardness Alkalinity Chloride Sulfate

No. of samples 2240 2300 2470 1380 734

No. of sampling events 119 114 132 69 40
Mean No. of samples per event 18.8 20.2 18.7 20.0 18.4
Events with standard deviation < 0.1 [%] 54.6 69.3 68.9 60.9 60.0
Events with standard deviation < 0.15 [%] 84.0 85.1 81.8 73.9 72.5
Events with standard deviation < 0.2 [%] 92.4 93.9 90.2 85.5 80.0

Trends in salinity ing in 72.5–85.1% of the original samples being in-

Tendencies in water quality are estimated by using avail-
able historical data such as total dissolved solids, total
hardness, alkalinity, chloride, and sulfate concentrations.
The parameters were measured in the period from April
1974 to December 2001 by the CNA. Table 4 gives the to-
tal sample number and events, averaging 18–20 sampling
stations in the whole lake. Since Lake Chapala is a shal-
low lake, it was considered a completely mixed system.
Therefore, lake depths at different sampling sites were
not considered in the calculation of mean values of water
quality records.
Individual concentrations were averaged for each pa-
rameter and sampling date, and the distribution of stan-
dard deviations of these mean values were determined.
This method was applied to characterize the degree of
mixing in the lake. As shown in Table 4, 80.0 to 93.9% of
the populations of mean concentrations have standard de-
viations below 20%. Considering the large size of the
lake, from 700–1100 km2, during the sampling period,
these values indicate that Lake Chapala can be considered
a well-mixed system.
To further analyze the influence of different lake wa-
ter levels on salt concentrations, mean values with stan-
dard deviations greater than 15% were excluded, result-
cluded (Table 4). This statistical data filtration was ap-
plied to eliminate sampling events that do not reflect a
mixed system or with measurement and data capture er-
rors.
In Figures 5 and 6, mean concentrations of the para-
meters given in Table 4 have been plotted against corre-
sponding lake volume. As would be expected, decreasing
lake volumes lead to salt accumulation. The R2-values for
the accumulation regression equations (Table 5) of the
different components were determined: TDS R2 = 0.91,
total hardness R2 = 0.68, alkalinity R2 = 0.88, chloride
R2 = 0.79, and sulfate R2 = 0.83. With exception of total
hardness, accumulation of salts can be expressed by ex-
ponential functions with exponents between –0.610 and
–0.836 (Table 5). The different behaviors of total hard-
ness, representing the sum concentrations of Ca2+ and
Mg2+ ions, may be due to precipitation of these ions at
times when the lake volume decreased due to evapora-
tion.
Ion balance estimation
All major ions are not monitored for Lake Chapala. To
model trace metal accumulation in the lake (Hansen and
van Afferden, 2004) and verify fulfillment of water qual-

Figure 5. Mean concentrations of total dissolved solids, alkalinity Figure 6. Mean concentrations of chloride and sulfate at different
and total hardness at different lake volumes. lake volumes.
Aquat. Sci. Vol. 66, 2004
Table 5. Equations to calculate concentrations of major ions and
sum parameters [mg L–1] for lake volumes = ¥ [106 m3] based on
real volume data in the range from 1000 to 8000 ¥ 106 m3.
Sum parameters Calibration equation
TDS 106340x–0.635
Alkalinity 42885x–0.610
Total hardness (expressed as CaO) –0.0171x + 276
Major ions Calibration equation
[Na+] 136368x–0.900
[K+] 70498x–0.900
[Ca2+] –0.0043x + 69
[Mg2+] –0.0016x + 25
[CO32–] 26160x–0.610
[Cl–] 41135x–0.836
[SO42–] 38538x–0.745
ity standards, ion charge and mass balances were de-
scribed by the following equations:
[Na+] + [K+] + 2[Ca2+] + 2[Mg2+]
= 2[CO32– ] + [Cl–] + 2[SO42– ]
TDS = [Na+] + [K+] + 2[Ca2+] + 2[Mg2+]
= 2[CO32– ] + [Cl–] + 2[SO42– ]
The charge balance given in equation 4 does not consider
protons, hydroxide ions, phosphate, nitrate and ammonia
because their concentrations are relatively low. Mean pH
of the lake water is 8.55 ± 0.47 (2612 measurements from
1974 to 2001) and mean nutrient concentrations represent
approximately 0.15% of the total dissolved solids during
the last decade (deAnda and Shear, 2001).
Ion charge balance was calculated for lake volumes,
ranging from 300 to 6400 ¥ 106 m3. Cl– and SO42– concen-
trations were calculated by the regression equations given
in Table 4. CO32– concentrations were calculated from al-
kalinity, and Ca2+ and Mg2+ from total and calcium hard-
ness. Since total hardness is a sum-parameter that mainly
include Ca2+ and Mg2+ ions, the proportion of both ions
was calculated using 328 single measurements of Ca-
hardness from the years 1977–79 and 1997, and the cor-
responding total hardness concentrations. The mean ratio
between total and Ca-hardness was calculated as 1.7 with
a standard deviation of 13.6 %. This value is within the
range for global rivers, where molar [Ca2+]/[Mg2+] ratios
vary between 1.36 and 2.18 (Hunter et al., 1999). Since
concentrations of Na+ and K+ are not measured during
standard monitoring in Lake Chapala, the concentrations
of these ions were calculated by application of the mass
and charge balances (eqs. 5 and 4, respectively) for each
lake volume. Results were verified by comparing the
measured TDS with the calculated mass balance (eq. 5),
as illustrated in Figure 7.
Overview Article 263
Figure 7. Relation between calculated sum of major ions and mea-
sured total dissolved solids concentrations at different lake vol-
umes.
This corroboration could be fit with a linear regres-
sion curve (y = x). The best fit, R2 = 0.993, was obtained
(4) for the molar relation [Na+]/[K+] of 3.3, which is lower
than the average of 6.8 for global rivers (Hunter et al.,
1999). By t-test, it was proven that there is no difference
(5) between data populations (sum of major ions and TDS) at
a significance level higher than 99% for all lake volumes.
This finding indicates a successful estimation of major
ion compositions for Lake Chapala.
Finally, the accumulation behaviors for all major ions
in Lake Chapala can be described by the regression equa-
tions presented in Table 3. It can be observed that for all
ions except for hardness-related ions and parameters
(Ca2+, Mg2+, total hardness), the relation between concen-
trations and lake volumes are exponential. Theoretically,
a conservative substance accumulates with a negative ex-
ponent of –1.0 with decreasing lake volume. Here we
found that the negative exponent has a value close to 0.9
for the most conservative ions (Na+, K+, and Cl–), while
the exponents decrease for more reactive ions: SO42+
(–0.745) < TDS (–0.635) < alkalinity (–0.610) = CO32–
(–0.610). The hardness-related parameters show a linear
relation with lake-volume, suggesting that these are pre-
cipitated as the lake volume decreases.
Applying the Mexican regulation for different water
uses (CNA, 1989; SSA, 2000) to these results, it can be
inferred that concentrations of most major ions represent
no immediate risk even at very low lake levels. Neverthe-
less, the composite parameters for TDS and alkalinity in-
crease to levels higher then those established in the Mex-
ican legislation. According to Mexican federal regula-
tion, the limits for use of water as drinking water supply
and irrigation is 500 mg L–1 for TDS and 400 mg L–1 for
alkalinity (CNA, 1989). Analysis of available water qual-
ity data for different lake levels indicate, that the limit for
264 M. van Afferden and A. M. Hansen
alkalinity is exceeded at lake volumes less than 2100 ¥
106 m3, while TDS is above the existing limits already at
lake levels of 4650 ¥106 m3 and lower. The Mexican norm
NOM-127-SSA1 (SSA, 2000) establishes a limit of 200
mg L–1 for Na+ in drinking water. Applying the equation
for Na+ (Table 4), concentrations of Na+ would exceed the
above norm for lake volumes of 1400 ¥ 106 m3 and lower.
These volume/major ions relations can be used to esti-
mate the trend in major ion accumulations over time as
given in Figure 3 for total dissolved solid concentrations
that accumulate from nearly 600 mg L–1 to above 1600
mg L–1 as lake volume is reduced.
Water demand from the Lerma-Chapala watershed
has surpassed the available and renewable resources
availability (surface supply and groundwater recharge),
resulting in a hydrologic imbalance in the basin (Palacios
and Martínez, 1999; Mestre, 1997) that is reflected in
Lake Chapala where lake volumes have decreased during
the last decades from around 9000 ¥ 106 m3 to an actual
mean volume of approximately 1500 ¥ 106 m3. One rea-
son for this crucial situation is that water allocation mech-
anisms have not kept up with rapidly changing water de-
mands (Scott and Garcés, 2001), considering that the lake
is not recognized as a ”user” of basin water. If Lake Cha-
pala is to be recovered, this recognition will need to be
considered probably through the reallocation of water
currently used for irrigation (Wester et al., 2001). In this
context, the developed model could serve as an early
warning system that may help to define water allocation
on a short- or medium-term scale. The tool provides in-
formation on expected yearly minimum volumes of the
lake and future tendencies in water volume evolution, as
well as lake water quality estimations.
While the model described here is primarily intended
as a management tool for Lake Chapala, it is of more gen-
eral scientific interest and future work may be directed to
apply the methodologies presented to other shallow lakes
in Mexico, such as Lakes Patzcuaro and Cuitzeo, or at the
international level, e. g., to the drying Lakes Chad, Aral
Sea and Kinneret.
Acknowledgments
The authors wish to thank the National Water Commis-
sion (CNA) especially José Amezcua from the CNA –
Centro de Estudios Limnológicos (Guadalajara, Mexico)
for making water quality data available, José deAnda
from the Centro de Investigación y Asistencia Tecnolog-
ica y Diseño (Jalisco, Mexico) for sharing stored data on
lake water quality and Ernesto Aguilar from Instituto
Mexicano de Tecnología de Agua (Progreso, Mexico) for
providing actual data for lake level and evaporation.
Forecast of lake volume and salt concentration
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