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CHAPTER 6A
POPULATION STUDIES

SOURCES OF POPULATION DATA

1. Periodic population census

Definition:
It is the counting or enumeration of the total number of people in a country, as
well as collecting their social and economic details.

A census records such details as age, sex, education levels, access to social
levels, employment status, housing etc.

Types of population census

(a) De facto population census

(b) De jure population census

De facto population census

This is counting the total population in the country at the time of the census.

De jure population census:

This is counting the total number of citizens of a country including those
residing outside the country.

Importance of a census.

1 A census is a very important planning tool for any government. It

enables the government to:

 Budget for the country more accurately.

 Determine the number of social facilities the population needs e.g.
Schools, clinics etc.
 Determine the employment levels and to take appropriate action.
 Identify the neglected areas in the country and take corrective measures.
 Plan for the future by looking at the population growth trends.
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2. Vital Registration systems: This is the recording of important events such

as births, deaths, etc. Such records are usually kept by the National Registration
Offices (Omang), hospitals, magistrate’s courts.

3. School Registers: Details such as the total enrolment, ages, sex, parent’s
occupations etc.

4. Parish/ church records: records of births, deaths, marriages etc. of church

members.

POPULATION DISTRIBUTION
Definition:
The pattern people are settled or spread on the earth surface determined by
physical, social and economic factors.

Population is not evenly distributed on the earth’s surface because of a number of factors.

(a) Environment:
Areas of extreme temperatures are thinly populated because the conditions are
unsuitable for human habitation
Examples: Polar regions-extremely cold; desert regions-very hot and dry.

(b) Relief:
Areas with steep slopes, rugged relief, high exposure (i.e. High and snow covered
mountains) are thinly populated because it is impossible to practice agriculture.

(c) River valleys:

Densely populated because they provide fresh water, fertile soils, animals, fish etc.
Examples: The Nile valley in Egypt.

(d) Soils:
Fertile soils attract the densest populations because of cultivation while infertile soils
have low population. For example in Botswana people are concentrated in the eastern
part because of fertile soils and sparsely populated in the west because of the infertile
Kgalagadi sands.

(e) Rainfall: People concentrate in areas with high or adequate rainfall for
agricultural purposes. Dry or arid areas are thinly populated because agriculture is
either difficult or impossible.

(f) Pests and diseases: Swamps and lowland areas discourage human settlement
because of the prevalence of disease causing insects such as mosquitoes, tsetse
flies, e.t.c.
(g) Economic factors: they are the most important distributional factors today
because people are attracted by the offer of employment opportunities.
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 Mining: The discovery and subsequent mining of minerals leads to the

development of urban settlements with thousands to millions of people.
For example Johannesburg, the Copper belt in Zambia, Selebi Phikwe and
Jwaneng.
 Agriculture: Commercial farms, plantations and irrigation schemes attract
many people because they offer employment opportunities.
 Industrialization and urbanization: Industries in towns and cities attract
millions of people from rural areas. In developed countries over 90% of
the population lives in urban areas. In the developing countries more
people are migrating to the cities.

(h)Political stability:
People tend to concentrate in areas of peace and stability but will leave areas of wars
or unrest because of safety concerns.

POPULATION DENSITY

Definition:
The number of people per unit area of land i.e. per square kilometer.

It is calculated by dividing the total population by the land area.

Population Density = Total Population

Land area

Examples

1. Botswana: Population 1 670 000

Land area 580 000

Population density = 1670000

580000

= 2.9

Therefore Population Density of Botswana = 3 people per square kilometre.

2. Zimbabwe: Population Density = 19 people per square kilometre.

3 Britain: Population Density = 229 people per square kilometre.
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Population density tends to be Population density tends to be

higher in the following areas lower in the following areas:

 Fertile lands  Dry or arid regions

 High rainfall  Infertile areas
 Industrialization and urbanization  Mountainous regions
 Mining  Extreme temperature e.g. Polar or
 Adequate fresh water supply deserts
 Intensive agriculture  Swamps/marshes
 Moderate temperatures  Pests and disease.

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POPULATION FERTILITY.

This is the study of the number of babies being born in a population.

Crude Birth rate/Birth rate:

This is the number of babies born alive per in a year per thousand people.

Examples

Area of Study Crude Birth Rate Per

1000 People
Botswana 35
Zimbabwe 37
Africa 46
Asia 40
Europe 14

Reasons Why Less Developed Countries Have High Crude Birth Rates.
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 The belief that the greater the number of children the greater the social prestige
since it proves a man’s virility.
 High levels of illiteracy/low education levels.
 Ignorance/lack of use of contraceptives.
 Children regarded as a source of labour in agriculture.
 Children regarded as a source of pension/social security in old age.
 Early marriages.
 High infant mortality rates cause most people to have many babies to ensure that
some survive into adulthood.
 The desire to have a son as an heir (if the children are just girls)

Reasons Why Developed Countries Have Low Crude Birth Rates

 Widespread use of contraception and family planning methods.

 High levels of education.
 People get married late because of longer period spent at school and work
commitments.
 High standards of living which make large families expensive.
 Limited living space in the urbanized societies.

MORTALITY:
Mortality means death. Therefore the study of mortality is concerned with the number of
people dying and why they are dying.

Mortality is mainly concerned with:

 Infant mortality
 Death rate
 Life expectancy

(a) Crude Death Rate/Death rate:-

This is the number of people dying per thousand people per year.

Example:

Country Crude Death Rate Per 1000 People

Botswana 6
Lesotho 12
Tanzania 18

(b) Infant Mortality Rate:-

This is the number of babies who die before reaching their first birthday per
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thousand live births.

Example:
Infant Mortality Rate
Country ( Per 1000 Live Births)
Mozambique
Africa 120
Malawi 18
Europe 16

Mortality rates such as the Death rate and infant mortality rate are generally higher in
the less developed countries of Africa, Asia and Latin America because of the following
reasons:
 Inadequate and poor health care facilities.
 Widespread diseases and epidemics e.g. cholera, measles, smallpox, etc
 Poor sanitation and hygiene.
 Food shortages/famines/malnutrition.
 Poverty/a hard life.
 Wars/civil strife

(c) Life expectancy: -

It is the average age, which people in a country live up to/ the average life span
of people in a country.

Example

Country Life Expectancy (Years)

Botswana 45
Europe 75

The reasons why Life Expectancy in less developed countries is

generally low.

 Poor health care.

 Poor/inadequate nutrition
 Poor sanitation and hygiene
 Low standards of living.
 Back breaking manual labour that makes people age faster.
 Wars
 Widespread diseases and epidemics.

The reasons why Life Expectancy in developed countries is

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generally high.

 Excellent nutrition.
 Good hygiene and sanitation
 Adequate and well equipped health care facilities.
 Good social security/pension schemes.
 Use of machines to perform manual tasks.
 High standards of living.

NATURAL POPULATION INCREASE/POPULATION GROWTH.

The four factors that influence population change

Factors that increase Factors that decrease

population directly population directly
Births Deaths

Immigrants Emigrants

Immigrants: People who come to live in a country from another country.

Emigrants: People who leave their country to go and live or work in another country.

NATURAL POPULATION INCREASE

Definition:
This is the rate/proportion at which the number of people becomes more through births
and deaths.
NB. This does not include changes caused by migration of people.

Births - Deaths = Natural Population increase

The natural increase rate is calculated by finding the difference between births and deaths
rates and expressing it as a percentage.

For example: Botswana: Birth rate = 35 per 1000

Death rate = 6 per 1000
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Population increase rate = Birth rate – Death rate x 100

1000

= 35 – 6 x 100
1000

= 29 x 100
1000

= 2.9% per annum.

Population explosion – It is the rapid growth or increase of people in a country.

Country Birth Death rate Natural increase

rate %

Tanzania 48 18 3.0
Nigeria 43 14 -
Egypt - 10 2.1
Zimbabwe 37 - 2.9
U.S.A 17 - 0.8
Germany - 11 0.0

Why Countries Of Asia, Africa And South America Have High

Population Growth Rates

 Ignorance and lack of use of contraceptives and family planning.

 Low levels of education.
 Children regarded as important source of labour in agriculture.
 Early marriages.
 Low living standards/poverty.
 Large families source of male pride.
 High I.M.R. means families have to have more children to ensure that
some survive into adulthood.

Why Developed Countries Have Lower Growth Rates

 Widespread use of contraception and family planning.
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 Late marriages or no marriages at all.

 High education levels.
 High standards of living.
 Child labour banned by law.
 Social security/pension schemes means children are no longer valued as a
means of pension in old age.

Problems Caused By Rapid Population Growth

 Shortage of land.
 Shortage of food.
 High unemployment levels.
 High crime levels.
 Shortage of social facilities e.g. schools, hospitals.
 Shortage of housing leading to development of shanty settlements.
 Poverty and low incomes.
 Overcrowding/population pressure.
 Environmental degradation e.g. soil erosion, deforestation, pollution.

Methods To Control Population Growth

 Introducing people to the use of contraceptives and family planning.

 Educating both men and women.
 Voluntary sterilization.
 Improving the standards of living/income levels.
 Gender equality that gives women the right to decide on family size.
 Passing laws which limit size of family e.g. China’s one child per family
policy; Botswana’s civil servants are limited to three children by the
maternity conditions.

POPULATION AND RESOURCES

Total population in a country in relation to the available resources

(a) Under population:

This is when the total number of people in a country is too few to fully utilize
or develop the available resources.
This means that the country can actually support a larger population.

Characteristics
 Low/small population
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 Low population density

 Large areas of unoccupied but potentially productive land.
 Shortage of labour/manpower.
 Low levels of economic development.

(b) Optimum population:

This the maximum number of people that resources in a country can support
without causing any damage or depletion.

(c) Overpopulation:
This is when the total number of people in a country far much larger than the
available resources.

This means the available resources are too small to support the population.

Examples: Lesotho, Malawi, Burundi, Rwanda e.t.c.

Characteristics.
 Overcrowding
 Shortage of land
 Inadequate food
 Low standards of living/poverty
 High unemployment levels
 Environmental degradation
 Social and political unrest e.g. civil wars
 Inadequate social services.

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL

Definition: It is a graph that shows the changes in births and death rates and
population growth over time.

- It is based on European countries’ demographic changes over the last 250 years.
- It is subdivided into four stages that show changes in birth, deaths and population
growth.
- The changes in the population trends are closely linked to improvement in levels
of development.
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Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4

High Early late Low
Fluctuating Expanding Expanding Fluctuating

Stage 1: High Fluctuating

Europe was in this stage before 1750 (i.e. before the industrial revolution.). Africa was in
this stage before the coming of colonialism.

Life was still primitive and characterized by:

 High birth rates
 High death rates
 Low and very slow population growth

Birth rates were high because of:

 Children being regarded as source of labour
 Children treated as source of pension in old age
 Large families seen as a symbol of pride
 High infant mortality rates made parents to have more children to ensure
the survival of some into adulthood
 No birth control methods developed as yet.

Death rates were also high because of the following reasons:

 Primitive medical knowledge
 Widespread diseases and epidemics
 Famine/starvation
 Poor sanitation and hygiene
 Wars
NB:
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At certain times the death rate was higher than the birth rate during times of wars,
epidemics/plagues and famine. This causes the population to decline.

Stage 2: Early Expanding

Most African countries are still in this stage.
This stage is characterized by:
 High birth rates
 Falling death rate
 A rapidly growing population

Birth rates remain high because the people’s attitudes have not changed i.e. as in the
first stage.

Death rate begins to fall rapidly because of:

 Improved sanitation and hygiene
 Improved medical care e.g. surgery, medicines
 Better nutrition/diet
 Higher standards of living

Population growth is very high because of the high birthrates and falling death
rates. Hence it is called the expansion stage.

Stage 3: Late Expanding

Botswana is in this stage of population development.

Newly Industrializing Countries (N.I.C.’s) Like South Korea, Taiwan, Brazil, e.t.c.

It is characterized by
 Falling birth rates
 Low death rates
 Lower population growth rates

The birth rates are falling because of the following reasons:

 Increased use of contraceptives and family planning
 High standards of living
 Passing of laws which stop child labour
 The fall in infant mortality means parents no longer need to have many babies
since all children are assured of survival
 High education levels for both men and women.

The population is already high but the rate of growth has already slowed down
significantly.
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Stage 4: Low Fluctuating

The developed countries of Europe, North America and Japan are at this stage.

It is characterized by:
 Low birth rates
 Low death rates
 Very low population growth of less than 1% per annum. Some countries have
zero (0%) growth i.e. the birth rate is equal to the death rate. For example
Germany. Some countries even have shrinking populations which means death
rates are actually higher than birth rates.

POPULATION STRUCTURE
AGE-SEX PYRAMIDS

These are graphs that show the composition of the population according to sex and age
groups.

Main features of a population pyramid

 Males are always on the left side and females on the right.
 The younger population is shown at the bottom and the older at the top.
 Each age group is shown at the center of the pyramid in ranges.
 The structure of the population is strongly related to the level of economic
development.

Population pyramid for a Developed country.

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Description Reasons
Narrow base Few children in the population/ low
Birth rates.

A very wide middle Big adult population compared to

All other age groups.

A wide top Large elderly population/high life

Expectancy (i.e.65 years and above

Therefore the structure of a population pyramid of a Developed country shows that:

 Low population growth rate because there is very little difference between the
elderly population and young population.
 High life expectancy
 A very large adult population that dominates the population.
 Low birth rates.

Population Pyramid for a Developing Country

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Description Reasons
Very wide base Large child population/high birth rates

Narrow middle Small adult population/few children survive into

adulthood

Very narrow top Small elderly population/low life Expectancy

The population structure for a less developed country shows that:

 High population growth rates/expanding population.

 High death rates hence the fewer adults.
 Low life expectancy hence the very few elderly people.

Impact Of H.I.V./A.I.D.S. On The Structure Of Botswana’s

Population

 Fewer children because most will be dying or few people will be giving birth to
healthy babies.
 Lower life expectancy that is very few old people e.g. Botswana’s life expectancy
has currently gone down by 10 years as a result of AIDS.
 Fewer adults or sexually active people since most of them are dying.
 A higher dependency load, i.e. more orphan children that have to be supported by
a very small adult population.

Dependency Load/Ratio

Definition:
It is the proportion of the active/working population compared to the non-active
population.

Working/active population:
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Consist mostly of people between the ages of 16 and 64 years.

Non-active population:
Consists of children between the ages of 0 and 64 years and old people 65 years
and above.

The dependency ratio is always expressed as a percentage.

Dependency Load = Non-active population x 100

Active population

= P (0-16) + P (65 years + ) x 100

P (16 – 64 years)

Less developed countries have a high dependency load? This is mainly because the
population consists of a large proportion of children, up to 50% of the total population.
This means that the countries have to spend more money on:

 Providing schools for the children.

 Provision of more medical facilities.
 More money spends on child welfare services e.g. crèches, supplementary feeding
e.t.c.
 Less money is spent on productive sectors of the economy e.g. agriculture,
 industry, e.t.c.

Developed countries have a low dependency load. This is because the population of
these countries consists mainly of adults and fewer children. As a result the country can
easily provide with schools, food, health care facilities, and employment e.t.c.
Most of the money is directed to the productive sectors of the economy.

Advantages Of A Large Population In A Country.

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 A large domestic market, which stimulates industrialization and economic

development.
 It lowers labour costs because it provides a large pool of labour.
 It forces people to be innovative in order to solve new problems because
“Necessity is the mother of invention”.
 It provides adequate human resources to fully utilize the available resources.
 It will lead to a large pool of skilled labour.
 A large army for defence.

Disadvantages Of Large Population In A Country

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National Population Policy

 It is a strategy/plan adopted by a government to encourage its people to control
the size and structure of the total number of people in the country.

Strategies or Programmes are:

 Teaching and encouraging people to use contraceptives and family planning.
 Improving the standards of living.
 Improving the level of education of the population.
 Passing of laws against child labour.
 Laws limiting the size of the family.
 Maternity leave restrictions that discourage working mothers from having too
many babies.
 Gender equality, which allows women the right to choose.

Why a National Population policy is important

Rapid and uncontrolled population growth can lead to the following problems:
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 Shortage and overcrowding of land because there are too many people.
 High levels of unemployment because the population is growing too rapidly than
the economy can provide jobs.
 Shortage of social facilities such as schools because there are too many children
being born into the country.
 Shortage of food because the population is growing too fast than the nation can
produce.
 Low income levels/poverty.
 Shortage of accommodation leading to shanty settlements.
 High levels of crime because most people find it difficult to survive.