oP] Reliability can be defined as "the probability that an item will perform a required function, under Sei eee een a sc Roa ee eee ae Seok wena ae Cl Rec sa eee ee Cece aot atc ecu cs aa ue Rested aC Lag BS ke Uo ace Ree SCS ee TA PSUS sii su Cua oun ARCnet ee tart oe Pees BCs cae a a Cu ee (a) statistical reliability, (b) historical reliability, (Orne Rc sau! (Cee me rg ANS eG NOTE: Dispatch reliability can be considered as a special case of event-oriented reliability. Statistical reliability DS eee ike een Eur Rac Reus Rue aceon S (olan teed Benue nee Re CRU S RCE IS Sem rin Curie Ca on Renee eet une re eC ae et et ie) flight cycles. Airlines with 10 or more aircraft tend to use the statistical approach, but most literature on Ree Crean Rea ura eee cnet Celera a is RSTnaN a Historical reliability ee ec eu te oR Rue Coe The determination of the alert levels is associated to the trend of the indicator’s historical CCM Re RUC RuC eel eee Mle ole Role eee alee anced ecu oie iene ech MCN acura me ect uence amar characteristics of the historical data group: Pe ee Dee eect The alert levels for a new monitoring period (current year) are based on the preceding period's performance (preceding year), and are derived from these two values (average and SD), namely its data points average and the standard deviation (SD). The alerts levels are represented in the safety indicator graph by 3 alerts lines. Event-oriented reliability Pees Rene Lk ene eee Ra) CRUEL aa flight shutdowns, lightning strikes, or other accidents or incidents. These are events that do not occur on a regular basis and therefore Pee tea accu ace ce NARUC eee eta un Ck Cn CMa tanec cunts be investigated to determine the cause and to prevent or reduce the Pore ame cue kok get ko cusSRA TG See Rene eg ei aR ae ere ee RS Contin Ree ener ee cu Mint ce nore Seer) passengers, but is really just a special form of the event oriented reliability approach (Sees kel ee ne Ce nem oa Re esc If eight delays and cancellations are experienced in 200 flights that would mean that there were four delays per 100 flights, or a 4 percent delay rate. A4 percent delay rate would translate to a 96 percent dispatch rate. (100 percent- 4 percent delayed = 96 percent dispatched on time) In other words, the airline dispatched 96 percen{ of its fights on time. RELIABILITY CiaWre aL et Testa lia) * Thisis the probability of no failure over a specified period of time under particular use and Seale Reels hele system Reliability This is determined by the reliability of its components, the way they are put together, and Roe cue Reels Releaaa aes Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) + isthe expected (calculated) interval between one failure and the next on a system or component. It is often a measure of reliability, especially by the vendors trying to sell their Pema DUS cee acc} ee trae en Cue ec ee saa hue ey Ce eames PON u ene Rue ee ca ncaa RCC e cri ac eee et arcuate dey MEU ee occa en Sac eee ase since removals (and the spares/pipeline system that supports them) is what cost the airline Ey ANS) Coe meus hele sac hi oe DEeUR ord cen Varro eh out OU) una els Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) in flight hours Unscheduled removal rate per (1000) flight hour(s) No Failure Found (NFF) rate (in % of unscheduled removals and subsequent shop visits) Se Mec ia Chaat O Rlgo sO)Reliability Distribution Analysis NES eet SN ae OR Ree ceo Cea tt aC SRS Nene aes cet cca? fore neI Clee Lognormal distribution ere Teun srt) foe aa ele to Lognormal Distribution Models Uses of the lognormal distribution to model reliability data eee ee emery ee ete ie ee emer te cee age te er ed lognormal distribution can have markedly different appearances depending on ts scale parameter. he lognormal distribution has been called the most commonly used life distribution model for many high-technology applications. The distribution is based on the multiplicative growth model, which means that atany instant of ime, the EA ceenn oon t eri mennn peunrin rer eitnyciiee sen TNn Nn nei Me Mit ist Ley Seer ann ee eee eee ee ee ree ee parts or components that fail primarily due to stress or fatigue, including the following applications ce a ees However, f components are not expected to fail until wel after the technological life of the product in which they are installed 's complete (thats, the failure rate of a components constant during its expected lifetime), an exponential eee esLognormal Distribution Models The concept of lognormal distribution is simple: instead of the original data, logarithms of the CO eee Re uietny een eeu tae Mena cacy See Cau eee Comey aCe m nea cals Prearticy x’ = In(x,),x'2 = In(z) Pea Lognormal Distribution Models Mathematics of lognormal distribution eeveee eee)Lognormal Distribution Models Coe Lognormal Distribution Models CesMae melcieg eC Mime Clear LeU lc) Ce ogee eet een eaten tena teat Weibull distribution in Mathematics of Weibull distribution ribution function (CDF) provides the F(O, up totime t The reliability at time ¢, R(¢) will be RQ) =1-FOMAL lcreg eC e ey tear Lr lated Cn ener een et eee coe cy Pc p=075 £1500 hes and a shape parameter of 0.75, What percentage of eee Sear cae ore een FTC Eee tCr) cee Ey rer) TOC (1000) = 05218 = 52.10% aCe tag aCe byt ar LD Cones een a 4500 kilometers if =2.5? The sc coe erry as p=25 ee eee eed aed eaten ees at ce eee er err (1000) = 0.2112 = 21.12% 3168 tres are likely to fail within warrant periodExponential Distribution in reliability analysis Ce OE ence Pee) ro