Presentation

Title: Time Analysis in Statistics

Subtitle: Understanding Trends and Patterns Over
Time
Your Name: Hazair Abdullah (22012120-036)
Hussain Imran (22812120-001)
Hasan Saeed (22012120-040)
Introduction to Time Analysis
Definition:
Examination of data points collected or recorded at specific time
intervals.Importance:
Identifies trends, seasonal patterns, and cyclic behaviors.
Applications:
Economics, finance, weather forecasting, healthcare.
Types of Time Series Data
Univariate vs. Multivariate:
Single variable versus multiple variables.
Regular vs. Irregular Intervals:
Data recorded at consistent versus inconsistent intervals.
Components of Time Series
Trend:
Long-term movement in data.
Seasonality:
Regular, repeating patterns or cycles.
Cyclic Patterns:
Long-term fluctuations due to economic cycles.
Irregular/Noise:
Random variation or "noise.”
Time Series Decomposition
Additive Model:
( Y(t) = T(t) + S(t) + E(t) )
Multiplicative Model:
( Y(t) = T(t) \times S(t) \times E(t) )
Explanation:
Breaking down data into trend (T), seasonal (S), and error (E) components.
Stationarity in Time Series
Definition:
Statistical properties (mean, variance) do not change over time
Importance:
Many time series models assume stationarity.Methods to Achieve Stationarity:
Differencing, detrending, and transformation.
Autocorrelation and Partial Autocorrelation
Autocorrelation Function (ACF):
Correlation between observations at different lags.Partial Autocorrelation
Function (PACF):
Correlation between observations at different lags, controlling for shorter lags.
Time Series Models
ARIMA Model:
AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average.
AR (AutoRegressive):
Relationship between an observation and a number of lagged observations.
I (Integrated):
Differencing of raw observations to make the series stationary.
MA (Moving Average):
Relationship between an observation and a residual error from a moving average
model.SARIMA Model:
Seasonal ARIMA, includes seasonal components.
Model Evaluation
Criteria:
AIC (Akaike Information Criterion), BIC (Bayesian Information Criterion), RMSE
(Root Mean Square Error).
Cross-Validation:
Splitting data into training and testing sets to evaluate model performance.
Forecasting
Definition:
Predicting future values based on historical data.Techniques: Exponential
Smoothing, Holt-Winters, ARIMA.
Example:
Sample forecast plot.
Thank you